Seismic microzonation of a nuclear power plant site with detailed geotechnical,geophysical and site effect studies

This paper highlights the seismic microzonation carried out for a nuclear power plant site. Nuclear power plants are considered to be one of the most important and critical structures designed to withstand all natural disasters. Seismic microzonation is a process of demarcating a region into individual areas having different levels of various seismic hazards. This will help in identifying regions having high seismic hazard which is vital for engineering design and land-use planning. The main objective of this paper is to carry out the seismic microzonation of a nuclear power plant site situated in the east coast of South India, based on the spatial distribution of the hazard index value. The hazard index represents the consolidated effect of all major earthquake hazards and hazard influencing parameters. The present work will provide new directions for assessing the seismic hazards of new power plant sites in the country. Major seismic hazards considered for the evaluation of the hazard index are (1) intensity of ground shaking at bedrock, (2) site amplification, (3) liquefaction potential and (4) the predominant frequency of the earthquake motion at the surface. The intensity of ground shaking in terms of peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) was estimated for the study area using both deterministic and probabilistic approaches with logic tree methodology. The site characterization of the study area has been carried out using the multichannel analysis of surface waves test and available borehole data. One-dimensional ground response analysis was carried out at major locations within the study area for evaluating PHA and spectral accelerations at the ground surface. Based on the standard penetration test data, deterministic as well as probabilistic liquefaction hazard analysis has been carried out for the entire study area. Finally, all the major earthquake hazards estimated above, and other significant parameters representing local geology were integrated using the analytic hierarchy process and hazard index map for the study area was prepared. Maps showing the spatial variation of seismic hazards (intensity of ground shaking, liquefaction potential and predominant frequency) and hazard index are presented in this work.     

Earthquake-induced liquefaction hazard mapping at national-scale in Australia using deep learning techniques

Australia is a relatively stable continental region but not tectonically inert, having geological conditions that are susceptible to liquefaction when subjected to earthquake ground motion. Liquefaction hazard assessment for Australia was conducted because no Australian liquefaction maps that are based on modern AI techniques are currently available. In this study, several conditioning factors including Shear wave velocity (Vs30), clay content, soil water content, soil bulk density, soil thickness, soil pH, distance from river, slope and elevation were considered to estimate the liquefaction potential index (LPI). By considering the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) technique, peak ground acceleration (PGA) was derived for 50 yrs period (500 and 2500 yrs return period) in Australia. Firstly, liquefaction hazard index (LHI) (effects based on the size and depth of the liquefiable areas) was estimated by considering the LPI along with the 2% and 10% exceedance probability of earthquake hazard. Secondly, ground acceleration data from the Geoscience Australia projecting 2% and 10% exceedance rate of PGA for 50 yrs were used in this study to produce earthquake induced soil liquefaction hazard maps. Thirdly, deep neural networks (DNNs) were also exerted to estimate liquefaction hazard that can be reported as liquefaction hazard base maps for Australia with an accuracy of 94% and 93%, respectively. As per the results, very-high liquefaction hazard can be observed in Western and Southern Australia including some parts of Victoria. This research is the first ever country-scale study to be considered for soil liquefaction hazard in Australia using geospatial information in association with PSHA and deep learning techniques. This study used an earthquake design magnitude threshold of M_w 6 using the source model characterization. The resulting maps present the earthquake-triggered liquefaction hazard and are intending to establish a conceptual structure to guide more detailed investigations as may be required in the future. The limitations of deep learning models are complex and require huge data, knowledge on topology, parameters, and training method whereas PSHA follows few assumptions. The advantages deal with the reusability of model codes and its transferability to other similar study areas. This research aims to support stakeholders’ on decision making for infrastructure investment, emergency planning and prioritisation of post-earthquake reconstruction projects.     

Soft sediments and damage pattern: a few case studies from large Indian earthquakes vis-a-vis seismic risk evaluation

India is prone to earthquake hazard; almost 65 % area falls in high to very high seismic zones, as per the seismic zoning map of the country. The Himalaya and the Indo-Gangetic plains are particularly vulnerable to high seismic hazard. Any major earthquake in Himalaya can cause severe destruction and multiple fatalities in urban centers located in the vicinity. Seismically induced ground motion amplification and soil liquefaction are the two main factors responsible for severe damage to the structures, especially, built on soft sedimentary environment. These are essentially governed by the size of earthquake, epicentral distance and geology of the area. Besides, lithology of the strata, i.e., sediment type, grain size and their distribution, thickness, lateral discontinuity and ground water depth, play an important role in determining the nature and degree of destruction. There has been significant advancement in our understanding and assessment of these two phenomena. However, data from past earthquakes provide valuable information which help in better estimation of ground motion amplification and soil liquefaction for evaluation of seismic risk in future and planning the mitigation strategies. In this paper, we present the case studies of past three large Indian earthquakes, i.e., 1803 Uttaranchal earthquake (Mw 7.5); 1934 Bihar–Nepal earthquake (Mw 8.1) and 2001 Bhuj earthquake (Mw 7.7) and discuss the role of soft sediments particularly, alluvial deposits in relation to the damage pattern due to amplified ground motions and soil liquefaction induced by the events. The results presented in the paper are mainly focused around the sites located on the river banks and experienced major destruction during these events. It is observed that the soft sedimentary sites located even far from earthquake epicenter, with low water saturation, experienced high ground motion amplification; while the sites with high saturation level have undergone soil liquefaction. We also discuss the need of intensifying studies related to ground motion amplification and soil liquefaction in India as these are the important inputs for detailed seismic hazard estimation.     

Nonlinear soil response to ground motions during different earthquakes in Nepal,to arrive at surface response spectra

Catastrophic damages reported during an earthquake include building damages, excessive ground shaking, uneven settlements and liquefaction. While most of the seismic hazard studies map the probable level of ground shaking at the bedrock level, their use in assessing the above damages is very limited until the response of the local soil is also taken into account. Determination of the local soil response needs regionally recorded ground motions, dynamic soil properties, in situ geotechnical details, etc., which most of the time are not readily available for the region under study. In the present work, the response of local soil for Nepal has been studied indirectly taking into account the surface level of ground shaking during various past as well as recent EQs observed at various locations. Based on the present analysis, a low value of amplification factor for high peak horizontal acceleration and vice versa is observed in central, western as well as southern parts of Nepal. These observations suggest nonlinear soil behavior and are in accordance with the available literature. Further, the ground motion records during 2015 Nepal EQ show maximum soil response at 0.3 s which is exactly matching with the site class C obtained from in situ data for the above locations. Based on the above observations, various correlations between the high peak horizontal acceleration and the surface spectral acceleration are proposed to obtained site specific surface response spectrum for Nepal.     

Seismic hazard analysis of Laoag City,Northern Philippines for liquefaction potential assessment

A seismic hazard analysis was conducted in Laoag City, Northern Philippines to determine the design ground motion for liquefaction potential assessment of the area. Because the hazard analysis was done within the framework of liquefaction potential assessment, only those earthquakes with magnitude–distance combinations that are capable of generating liquefaction were considered in the study. Both probabilistic and deterministic approaches were used in the analysis. From the results of the probabilistic analysis, seismic hazard curves were generated from which the ground motion with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50years was obtained. This was then modified in consideration of the soft soil condition in the study area. Deaggregation was performed to determine the most likely earthquake to generate the said level of ground shaking.     

Dynamic analysis of ground with rigorous use of strain dependency and its application to seismic microzonation of alluvial plane

Seismic microzonation is one of the most important measures to mitigate earthquake hazards in urban areas. Because the ground motion varies significantly with the subsurface geology, it is needed for microzonation to account as much as possible for the local soil conditions. Noteworthy is that nonlinear deformation properties of soil play essential roles in amplification of strong ground motion. It is desired furthermore to focus on the expected damage extent in addition to the calculated maximum acceleration and/or velocity. The present study first developed a computer code for one-dimensional response analysis of ground that reasonably takes into account nonlinear dynamic soil properties. Second, correlations between the calculated ground motion and damage extent were obtained by examining seismic damages during the past earthquakes. By combining these two issues, seismic microzonation was carried out, and detailed damage distribution was assessed. The product of this study covers not only the damage caused by ground shaking but also liquefaction problem and lifeline damage.     

Evaluation of ground motion characteristics,effects of local geology and liquefaction susceptibility: the case of Itea,Corinth Gulf (Greece)

In the present paper we analyze the effect of local geology on ground motion by means of numerical calculations (numerical models) using total (TS) and effective stress (ES) methods. These numerical calculations have been applied to the site of Itea, Corinth Gulf, which was chosen based on liquefaction susceptibility criteria and field inspection. Data from seismic refraction experiments and cone penetration test N-values as well as selected records of ground motion in nearby areas were used to construct the input file for the numerical model. By means of␣dynamic analysis such characteristics of ground motion as acceleration time histories, response spectra, and amplification function were evaluated. A one-dimensional soil amplification effect was clearly shown. Liquefaction probability at the Itea site was predicted based on the safety factor and the calculation of the induced settlement at the test site. Results of the TS and ES modeling lead us to conclude: (1) the presence of soft soil at Itea caused significant amplification (almost 2.5-fold higher magnitude) of the underlying bedrock motion and, therefore, can contribute to damage; (2) the area of Itea is highly susceptible to liquefaction due to presence of silty sand deposits at depths between 2.48 m (the position of the water table) and 12 m that demonstrate the rapid growth of the excess pore water pressure (EPWP) ratio with an increase in peak ground acceleration values.     

GIS-based multi-criteria earthquake hazards evaluation using analytic hierarchy process for a nuclear power plant site,west Alexandria,Egypt

Nuclear power plants are designed to prevent the hazardous effects of the earthquakes and any external events to keep the safety of the plant. Ninety-one shallow seismic refraction profiles were performed to determine shear wave velocity of the engineering layers at the site of El Dabaa area that is situated to the northern coastline of Egypt for seismic hazard microzonation evaluation according to hazard index values. A microzonation is a procedure of delineating an area into individual zones having different ranks of numerous seismic hazards. This will aid in classifying areas of high seismic risk which is vigorous for industrial design of nuclear structures. The site response analysis requires the characterization of subsurface materials considering local subsurface profiles of the site. Site classification of the area under investigation was undertaken using P- and S-waves and available borehole data. The studied nuclear power plant site has been characterized as per NEHRP site classification using an average velocity of transverse wave (V _s ³⁰ ) of depth 30 m which acquired from seismic survey. This site was categorized into two site classes: the major one is “site class B,” and the minor one is “site class A.” The attenuation coefficient, the damping ratio and the liquefaction potential are geotechnical parameters which were derived from P- and S-waves, and have their major effects on the seismic hazard contribution. 1D ground response analysis was carried out in the places of seismic profiles inside the site for estimating the amount of ground quaking using peak ground acceleration (PGA), site amplification, predominant frequency and spectral accelerations on the surface of ground by the DEEPSOIL software package. Seven factors (criteria) deliberated to assess the earthquake hazard index map are: (1) the peak ground acceleration at the bedrock, (2) the amplification of the site, (3) the liquefaction potential, (4) the main frequency of the earthquake signal, (5) the average V _s of the first 30 m from the ground surface, (6) the depth to the groundwater and (7) the depth to the bedrock. These features were exemplified in normalized maps after uniting them to 0–1 scores according to some criteria by the minimum and maximum values as linear scaling points. Multi-criteria evaluation is an application of multi-criteria decision analysis theory that used for developing a seismic hazard index map for a nuclear power plant site at El Dabaa area in ArcGIS 10.1 software. Two models of decision making were used in this work for seismic hazard microzonation. The analytic hierarchy process model was applied to conduct the relative weights of the criteria by pairwise comparison using Expert Choice Software. An earthquake hazard index map was combined using Weighted Linear Combination model of the raster weighted overlay tool of ArcGIS 10.1. The results indicated that most of the study site of the nuclear power plant is a region of low to moderate hazard; its values are ranging between 0.2 and 0.4.     

场地土对基岩峰值加速度放大效应分析

通过实际土层地震反应结果的统计分析和强震加速度观测结果的对比, 讨论了不同场地条件对基岩峰值加速度的放大效应及其特点。该分析可为地震动参数区划图编制和地震安全性评价中场地效应的估计、由基岩地震动估算场地地面地震动提供参考。     

Strong ground-motion prediction and uncertainties estimation for Delhi,India

An endeavour has been made in the present study to estimate the uncertainties in strong ground-motion estimation for Delhi region. The strong ground motion (SGM) has been estimated using the logic-tree approach with equal weights chosen for the branches of the logic tree because a scientific preference has not yet been developed for the area. Coefficient of variation (COV) maps have been generated along with the mean SGM which aid in visualizing the effect of our lack of knowledge on the final results and highlight those areas where improved scientific understanding can have an impact on future hazard maps. Monte Carlo simulation has been sued to consider the effect of the variation in the seismic hazard parameters. The spectral ground generated for various return periods suggests higher values in the north-west region with a decreasing trend towards the south-east part of Delhi. The hazard gradient is highest at spectral acceleration (Sa) 0.1 s and lowest at spectral acceleration (Sa) 1.0 s for all return periods. The highest COV values (~0.60) were observed in case of PGA while lowest COV values (~0.15) were observed for spectral acceleration (Sa) 0.3 s at all return periods. One of the conspicuous observations is that the trends of COV maps have been found to be governed by the boundaries of the seismogenic sources. While COV values are governed mostly by Line Sources in smaller return and time periods, in higher return periods trend of the COV maps were found to be governed by the boundaries of the Areal Sources.     

基于强震台网观测的快速震灾评估系统的设想

通过实时地震观测数据获取能力和计算机性能的巨大提高 ,快速生成仪器观测的地面运动和地震动强度空间分布成为可能 ,利用这一成果结合地震灾害易损性研究成果和地震灾害评估模型 ,可以对破坏性地震造成的损失进行快速评估 ,为地震应急响应和决策指挥提供更可靠的信息支持。本文概述了利用强地面运动加速度观测资料进行地震灾害快速评估方法在国内外最新进展 ,提出了利用我省强震台网观测资料进行地震灾害快速评估的基本思路。     

A seismic landslide hazard analysis with topographic effect,a case study in the 99 Peaks region,Central Taiwan

It has been known that ground motion amplitude will be amplified at mountaintops; however, such topographic effects are not included in conventional landslide hazard models. In this study, a modified procedure that considers the topographic effects is proposed to analyze the seismic landslide hazard. The topographic effect is estimated by back analysis. First, a 3D dynamic numerical model with irregular topography is constructed. The theoretical topographic amplification factors are derived from the dynamic numerical model. The ground motion record is regarded as the reference motion in the plane area. By combining the topographic amplification factors with the reference motions, the amplified acceleration time history and amplified seismic intensity parameters are obtained. Newmark’s displacement model is chosen to perform the seismic landslide hazard analysis. By combining the regression equation and the seismic parameter of peak ground acceleration and Arias intensity, the Newmark’s displacement distribution is generated. Subsequently, the calculated Newmark’s displacement maps are transformed to the hazard maps. The landslide hazard maps of the 99 Peaks region, Central Taiwan are evaluated. The actual landslide inventory maps triggered by the 21 September 1999, Chi-Chi earthquake are compared with the calculated hazard maps. Relative to the conventional procedure, the results show that the proposed procedures, which include the topographic effect can obtain a better result for seismic landslide hazard analysis. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Inclusion of earthquake strong ground motion in a geographic information system-based landslide susceptibility zonation in Garhwal Himalayas

Garhwal Himalayas are seismically very active and simultaneously suffering from landslide hazards. Landslides are one of the most frequent natural hazards in Himalayas causing damages worth more than one billion US$ and around 200 deaths every year. Thus, it is of paramount importance to identify the landslide causative factors to study them carefully and rank them as per their influence on the occurrence of landslides. The difference image of GIS-derived landslide susceptibility zonation maps prepared for pre- and post-Chamoli earthquake shows the effect of seismic shaking on the occurrence of landslides in the Garhwal Himalaya. An attempt has been made to incorporate seismic shaking parameters in terms of peak ground acceleration with other static landslide causative factors to produce landslide susceptibility zonation map in geographic information system environment. In this paper, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been carried out to calculate peak ground acceleration values at different time periods for estimating seismic shaking conditions in the study area. Further, these values are used as one of the causative factors of landslides in the study area and it is observed that it refines the preparation of landslide susceptibility zonation map in seismically active areas like Garhwal Himalayas.     

Proposed seismic hazard maps of Sumatra and Java islands and microzonation study of Jakarta city,Indonesia

This paper presents the development of spectral hazard maps for Sumatra and Java islands, Indonesia and microzonation study for Jakarta city. The purpose of this study is to propose a revision of the seismic hazard map in Indonesian Seismic Code SNI 03-1726-2002. Some improvements in seismic hazard analysis were implemented in the analysis by considering the recent seismic activities around Java and Sumatra. The seismic hazard analysis was carried out using 3-dimension (3-D) seismic source models (fault source model) using the latest research works regarding the tectonic setting of Sumatra and Java. Two hazard levels were analysed for representing 10% and 2% probability of exceedance (PE) in 50 years ground motions for Sumatra and Java. Peak ground acceleration contour maps for those two hazard levels and two additional macrozonation maps for 10% PE in 50 years were produced during this research. These two additional maps represent short period (0.2 s) and long-period (1.0 s) spectra values at the bedrock. Microzonation study is performed in order to obtain ground motion parameters such as acceleration, amplification factor and response spectra at the surface of Jakarta. The analyses were carried out using nonlinear approach. The results were used to develop contour of acceleration at the surface of Jakarta. Finally, the design response spectra for structural design purposes are proposed in this study.     

Site response zones and short-period earthquake ground motion projections for the Las Vegas Basin

A deterministic seismic hazard analysis was conducted to address the effect of local soil conditions on earthquake-induced strong ground motion in the Las Vegas Basin, Nevada (US). Using a large geological and geotechnical database, two response units were defined: a fine-grained unit, predominantly clay; and a coarse-grained unit, predominantly gravel. A moderate number of high-quality shallow shear wave velocity measurements were collected from which characteristic shear wave velocity profiles were developed for each response unit. An equivalent-linear one-dimensional site response model was used. The model was calibrated using a basin-wide, small-strain ground motion database. Calibration tests showed that ground motion projections become increasingly conservative with increasing ground-motion amplitude. Projections were overconservative for the coarse-grained response unit, likely due to the sparseness of the velocity database. For the earthquake response analyses, historical ground motions were used to model characteristic ‘bedrock’ motion for earthquakes on 10 faults judged to be critical. Response spectral envelopes were generated for each unit through Monte-Carlo simulations. For the fine-grained response unit, 95th percentile peak ground acceleration, peak spectral acceleration and predominant period were 310 cm/s², 1100 cm/s², and 0.29 s, respectively. With respect to codified design spectra, projections are lower at short periods and higher at long periods. Projections of peak spectral accelerations for the coarse-grained response unit, were more than double that of codified spectra; however, they are believed to be overconservative. Near-fault effects and basin-edge effects, though potentially important, were not considered in these analyses.     

Seismic Ground Motion Expected for the Eastern District of Naples

The seismic ground motion of a test area in the eastern district of Naples is computed with a hybrid technique based on the mode summation and the finite difference methods. This technique allows us the realistic modelling of source and propagation effects, including local soil conditions. In the modelling, we consider the 1980 Irpinia earthquake, a good example of strong shaking for the area of Naples, which is located about 90 km from the epicenter.The detailed geological setting is reconstructed from a large number of drillings. The sub-soil is mainly formed by alluvial (ash, stratified sand and peat) and pyroclastic materials overlying a pyroclastic rock (yellow neapolitan tuff), representing the neapolitan bedrock. The detailed information available on mechanical properties of the sub-soil and its geometry warrants the application of the sophisticated hybrid technique.As expected, the sedimentary cover causes an increase of the signal's amplitudes and duration. If thin peat layers are present, the amplification effects are reduced, and the peak ground accelerations are similar to those observed for the bedrock model. This can be explained by the backscattering of wave energy at such layers, that tend to seismically decouple the upper from the lower part of the structure.For SH-waves, the influence of the variations of the S-wave velocities on the spectral amplification is studied, by considering locally measured velocities and values determined from near-by down-hole measurements. The comparison between the computed spectral amplifications confirms the key role of an accurate determination of the seismic velocities of the different layers.The comparison performed between a realistic 2-D seismic response and a standard 1-D response, based on the vertical propagation of waves in a plane layered structure, shows considerable difference, from which it is evident that serious caution must be taken in the modelling of expected ground motion at a specific site.     

Seismic hazard and site-specific ground motion for typical ports of Gujarat

Economic importance of major ports is well known, and if ports are located in seismically active regions, then site-specific seismic hazard studies are essential to mitigate the seismic risk of the ports. Seismic design of port sites and related structures can be accomplished in three steps that include assessment of regional seismicity, geotechnical hazards, and soil structure interaction analysis. In the present study, site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is performed to identify the seismic hazard associated with four typical port sites of Gujarat state (bounded by 20°–25.5°N and 68°–75°E) of India viz. Kandla, Mundra, Hazira, and Dahej ports. The primary aim of the study is to develop consistent seismic ground motion for the structures within the four port sites for different three levels of ground shaking, i.e., operating level earthquake (72 years return period), contingency level earthquake (CLE) (475 year return period), and maximum considered earthquake (2,475 year return period). The geotechnical characterization for each port site is carried out using available geotechnical data. Shear wave velocities of the soil profile are estimated from SPT blow counts using various empirical formulae. Seismicity of the Gujarat region is modeled through delineating the 40 fault sources based on the seismotectonic setting. The Gujarat state is divided into three regions, i.e., Kachchh, Saurashtra, and Mainland Gujarat, and regional recurrence relations are assigned in the form of Gutenberg-Richter parameters in order to calculate seismic hazard associated with each port site. The horizontal component of ground acceleration for three levels of ground shaking is estimated by using different ground motion attenuation relations (GMAR) including one country-specific GMAR for Peninsular India. Uncertainty in seismic hazard computations is handled by using logic tree approach to develop uniform hazard spectra for 5% damping which are consistent with the specified three levels of ground shaking. Using recorded acceleration time history of Bhuj 2001 earthquake as the input time motion, synthetic time histories are generated to match the developed designed response spectra to study site-specific responses of port sites during different levels of ground shaking. It is observed that the Mundra and Kandla port sites are most vulnerable sites for seismic hazard as estimated CLE ground motion is in order of 0.79 and 0.48 g for Mundra and Kandla port sites, respectively. Hazira and Dahej port sites have comparatively less hazard with estimated CLE ground motion of 0.17 and 0.11 g, respectively. The ground amplification factor is observed at all sites which ranges from 1.3 to 2.0 for the frequency range of 1.0–2.7 Hz. The obtained spectral accelerations for the three levels of ground motions and obtained transfer functions for each port sites are compared with provisions made in Indian seismic code IS:1893-Part 1 (2002). The outcome of present study is recommended for further performance-based design to evaluate the seismic response of the port structures with respect to various performance levels.     

Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Taiwan Region on the Basis of Recent Strong-Motion Data and Prognostic Zonation of Future Earthquakes

The paper describes an integrated approach to seismic hazard assessment, which was applied for the Taiwan region. First, empirical modelsfor ground motion estimation in the region were obtained on the basisof records from recent (1993-1999) earthquakes. The databaseincludes strong-motion data collected during the recent Chi-Chiearthquake (M=7.6, 21 September 1999) and large (M=6.8)aftershocks. The ground-motion database was also used for evaluationof generalised site amplification functions for typical soil classes(B, C and D). Second, the theoretical seismic catalogue (2001–2050)for the Taiwan region had been calculated using the 4D-model(location, depth, time) for dynamic deformation of the Earth' crustand 5D-model (location, depth, time, magnitude) for seismic process.The models were developed on the basis of available geophysical andgeodynamic data that include regional seismic catalogue. Third, theregion & site & time-dependent seismic analysis, which is basedon schemes of probable earthquake zones evaluated from the theoreticalcatalogue, regional ground motion models, and local site responsecharacteristics, has been performed. The seismic hazard maps arecompiled in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and ResponseSpectra (RS) amplitudes. The maps show distribution of amplitudesthat will not be exceeded with certain probability in condition oftypical soil classes during all possible earthquakes that may occur inthe region during time period of 2003–2025. The approach allowsintroducing new parameter that describes dependency of seismichazard on time, so-called 'period of maximum hazard'. Theparameter shows the period, during which every considered sitewill be subjected by the maximum value of ground motioncharacteristic (PGA or RS).     

Field reconnaissance and overview of the impact of Hurricane Matthew on Haiti’s Tiburon Peninsula

The old potable water network in Byblos city is provided mainly from Ibrahim River nearby. Located in a seismic region, the aging network needs to tolerate seismic threats; thus, damage to the potable water network needs to be assessed. Therefore, first, enhancing infrastructure resilience is briefly discussed, noting briefly the need to bridge specifically between heritage risk management and engineering. Second, Byblos potable water network, seismicity, and geology are detailed. Third, the potable water network damage assessment methodology is presented. It encompasses hazard assessment, network inventory, damage functions, and model development. Data and maps are prepared using the Geographic Information System and then modeled in Ergo platform to obtain the damage to buried pipelines in the event of likely earthquake scenarios. Ergo is updated to consider recommended ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for the Middle East region, to consider amplification of the peak ground velocity in hazard maps due to different soil types, and to consider adequate fragility functions. Moreover, different Byblos geotechnical maps, landslide hazard, and liquefaction are investigated and embedded. Damage results to pipelines are dependent on the hazard maps obtained using different GMPEs and geotechnical maps. Asbestos cement pipelines will be most damaged, followed by polyethylene and then by ductile iron. Finally, recommendations are offered to consider an improved sustainable rehabilitation solution. The study provides a better understanding of Byblos potable water network and allows the establishment of a sustainable and resilience-to-earthquake preparedness strategy and recovery plan.     

基于地面运动强度及标准贯入试验的上海地区砂土地震液化评价

上海市地处长江三角洲前缘,黄浦江和苏州河交汇区域,特殊的地理环境与沉积环境导致浅部砂层广泛发育。随着城市建设的不断推进,上海城市区域范围的砂土地震液化风险评价成为亟待研究的课题。文章基于上海市工程钻孔数据,结合地震地面运动加速度分布与标准贯入试验,建立区域性地震液化危险性评价模型,对上海市进行了地震液化危险性评价。研究认为当发生50年超越概率10%的地震条件下,上海市陆域面积的66.0%将不会产生地震砂土液化灾害,21.8%的陆域面积仅发生轻微液化,只有崇明、横沙、长兴三岛,黄浦江及苏州河两岸地震液化等级达到中等甚至严重,占全市陆域面积12.3%;50年超越概率2%的地震条件下,随着峰值地面运动加速度整体升高,全市范围内轻微—严重液化区域明显增多,可能发生地震液化的总面积达到全市陆域面积46.25%。上海市存在砂土地震液化的危险性,但是发生概率较低。研究认为,目前的抗震设计规范中上海市的设防烈度偏高,可能导致不必要的建设成本。同时研究中的不同超越概率下的地震液化危险性评价结果为上海市工程建设相关标准的合理化改进的提供了建议和参考。