长江河口区平均海面季节性变化的分析

长江河口区的月平均海面变化主要受径流及其它海洋水文气象因子的作用,而且具有明显的季节性变化。本文为了探讨月平均海面时空变化的规律,运用了经验特征函数,对月平均海面的时空变化进行分解。以三个相互正交模型,估算了水文气象因子在月平均海面变化中所起的作用。     

基于SSA和MGF的海面变化长期预测及对比

海面变化预测受到建模思路、方法选择、数据长度及数据质量等因素的影响,导致了海面变化预测的不确定性。本文以国内6个验潮站自20世纪50年代以来的月平均潮位序列为基础,采用奇异谱分析(SSA)与均值生成函数(MGF)模型相结合的方案,以各站位最初20余年数据为基础建立预测模型,以后续年份的实测数据进行了多方案对比验证及检验。预测试验显示MGF模型具有较高的预测精度,并表现出较好的长期预测的稳定性特点。以SSA去噪序列为基础,应用MGF模型预测了各站位至2050年的月尺度海面值,年均值计算结果表明至2050年海面波动上升的幅度不超过20cm,海面变化速率同样表现出阶段性和波动性。与前人相关研究成果对比表明,本文所采用的SSA与MGF相结合的预测结果具有可比性,在方法原理和验证结果上看具有较好的长期预测潜力。     

Long-period variations of sea-level in Australasia

Summary. The ability of the Australian sea-level monitoring network is assessed in the investigation of long-period sea-level signals. Through the character of coastal long waves, seasonal variations in level and inter-annual level anomalies, the importance of the south coast of the Continent is identified as a coherent indicator of large-scale marine and atmospheric teleconnections. The source of the sea-level signal is investigated by the tracing of progressive features, by the numerical modelling of wind stress over the Southern Ocean, by the modelling of the effect of monsoonal rains over the Indian Ocean and the mass transport through the Indonesian Strait. These features are related to the ENSO cycle which for the first time is linked, inter alia , with Southern Ocean mechanisms.     

Low-frequency sea-level fluctuations along the coasts of Namibia and South Africa

Summary. Sea-level records at nine ports along the coasts of Namibia and South Africa are used to establish the existence of coastal trapped disturbances in sea-level as a response to the passage of synoptic weather systems. Using spectral analysis the characteristics and spatial variability of the sea-level fluctuations are identified. The results of cross-correlation analyses performed on sea-level data at adjacent ports for two periods during 1982 are discussed in detail to examine the propagation of coastal trapped waves round the coast.     

秦岭—大巴山高分辨率气温和降水格点数据集的建立及其对区域气候的指示

本文建立了秦岭—大巴山高分辨率(～29 m×29 m)的气候格点数据集,包括逐月气温和降水、年均温和年降水、春夏秋冬气温和降水。空间插值方法采用国际上较为先进的ANUSPLIN软件内置的薄盘光滑样条函数,以经度、纬度和海拔为独立变量。空间插值结果与流行的WorldClim 2.0气候格点数据集具有一致性,但是比后者更精确、分辨率更高、细节更突出。本文揭示和证实:秦岭南麓是最冷月气温的0℃分界线。秦岭—大巴山气温具有明显的垂直地带性。6月气温直减率最大,为0.61℃/100 m;12月气温直减率最小,为0.38℃/100 m;年均气温直减率为0.51℃/100 m。夏季和秋季降水从西南向东北递减,强降水中心出现在大巴山西南坡。冬季降水从东南向西北递减。大巴山是年降水1000 mm分界线,夏季降水500mm分界线;秦岭是年降水800 mm分界线,夏季降水400 mm分界线。与大尺度大气环流对比揭示:秦岭—大巴山气温和降水空间分布主要受到东亚季风和地形因子的控制。本文进一步明确了秦岭和大巴山的气候意义:大巴山主要阻挡夏季风北上,影响降水空间分布;秦岭主要阻挡冬季风南下,影响冬季气温空间分布。本文建立的高分辨率气候格点数据集,加深了对区域气候的认识,并将有多方面的用途。     

中国高分辨率温度和降水模拟数据的验证

PRISM模型是一种基于地理特征和回归统计方法生成气候图的模型。基于中国及其周边国家地区2450多个气象台站观测数据,以PRISM模型模拟生成了中国2.5′×2.5′(≈4～5km)逐月温度和降水数据。利用独立于模拟数据的中国生态系统研究网络18个野外观测站的长年气候观测数据,检验了PRISM模型的模拟结果,表明PRISM模型较好地模拟了我国温度和降水的空间分布及季节变化,除了在高山和亚热带地区由于地表覆盖和局部地形的差异影响模拟结果,其模拟值与实测值之间的趋势线同1∶1线基本一致,具有显著相关关系,其中降水效果略差     

Response of tree-ring growth to climate at treeline ecotones in the Qilian Mountains, northwestern China

Climate constitutes the main limiting factor for tree-ring growth in high-elevation forests, and the relationship between tree-ring growth and climate is complex. Based on tree-ring chronology and meteorological data, the influence of precipitation, mean temperature and mean minimum temperature at yearly, seasonal and monthly scales on the tree-ring growth of Picea crossifolia was studied at treeline ecotones in the Qilian Mountains, northwestern China. The results show that growing season temperatures of previous and current years are important limiting factors on tree-ring growth, particularly June mean temperature and mean minimum temperature of current year. The precipitations in the previous winter and current spring have a positive correlation, and in the current fall has a negative correlation with tree-ring growth, but these correlations are not significant. Our results suggest that temperature controls tree-ring growth more strongly than precipitation at treeline ecotones in the Qilian Mountains.     

华南老红砂沉积年代学及其环境意义：以福建青峰老红砂为例

对福建海坛岛青峰老红砂进行了系统的光释光测年研究,结合已发表的相关测年数据,在统一的时间标尺上探讨了老红砂发育过程及其与海平面变化和东亚季风变化之间的关系。结果表明：① QFS剖面沉积年龄为110~33 ka,起始发育年龄延伸到了末次间冰期。主要涵盖了MIS5c~MIS3阶段,其中存在4个快速堆积期。结合已发表的年代学数据进行综合分析,认为前人得出的老红砂发育在末次冰期以来的结论需要得到修正。② 华南老红砂发育过程与区域海平面变化密切相关。在末次间冰期和末次冰期均有发育,高海面（>-50 m）或较高海面（-50~-70 m）时期是老红砂普遍发育期。区域地壳运动叠加海平面变化造成闽南和闽东北老红砂的沉积差异：海退过程中的较高海面时期北部先发生快速堆积;海侵过程中的较高海面时期南部先发生快速堆积。LGM（海平面<-70 m）期,老红砂不发育。③ 老红砂在冰期-间冰期尺度上的沉积速率体现了源区气候和海平面变化对老红砂物源输送的双重制约。     

Linear correlations between Florida Current volume transport and surface speed with Miami sea-level and weather during 1964-70

Summary. The 1964-70 Florida Current data of Niiler & Richardson are examined for linear correlation with observed sea-level and weather, because their data provide an independent test of similar correlations reported in Maul et al. Seventy-five values of directly measured volume transport and 67 values of surface speed from Niiler & Richardson's unevenly spaced data are correlated with available daily mean values of Miami Beach sea-level, Bimini sea-level, Bimini-Miami Beach sea-level difference, and Miami weather (barometric pressure, air temperature, and north and east components of wind speed). Statistical frequency distribution of transport and of surface speed suggest variability that is not dominated by annual and/or semiannual cycles. Volume transport is most highly correlated with Bimini minus Miami Beach sea-level difference, and surface speed is most highly correlated with inverted Miami Beach sea-level. Including certain weather variables results in statistically significant improvements in linear multivariate modelling of transport and surface speed from sea-level; the standard errors are ± 2.6 sverdrup and ±10 cms⁻¹ respectively. Linear correlation coefficients and multivariate regression parameters from Niiler & Richardson's data are in agreement with those from Maul et al. , except that the standard error of estimating volume transport from sea-level is smaller in Maul et al. , apparently because of smaller errors in the direct measurements.     

大面积开荒扰动下的三江平原近45年气候变化

黑龙江省三江平原近45年来，经过大规模的开荒，农田已取代原来的沼泽和沼泽化湿地，成为现今三江平原的主要景观类型，其下垫面发生了巨大变化，采用1955－1999年三江平原地区21个气象台站的气温，降水，日照时数和气压4个要素的资料，分析近45年来三江平原的气候变化和发展趋势：用Yamamoto法和Mann-Kendall法对5年滑动平均的区域季节和年时间序列进行突变检测，定量地认述了三江平原地区的气候变化事实，对于各气候要素出现在20世纪60年代，70年代和80年代的突变事实，尤其是20世纪70年代以来的阶梯式的持续变暖事实，认为三江平原区域气候系统内部的变化可能是引起这些突变的直接原因。     

North Atlantic sea-level and circulation

Summary. Monthly sea-levels from an extensive array of North Atlantic tide gauges (26-50N) are examined. The spatial scale of the sea-level variations, and the reasons for them, are discussed; one application of such a study is clearly in the design of a tide gauge network for monitoring eustatic changes of sea-level.
The spatial scale of the sea-level changes is large. There is a coherent sea-level signal which can be traced along the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic from Newlyn (50N) to Tenerife (28N). There are also two distinct groupings of tide gauges along the western boundary, separated by Cape Hatteras.
The contribution of local air pressure and wind stress is quantified at each gauge through multiple regression techniques and the gains are then interpreted in terms of recent theoretical and numerical modelling studies. For example, the gains suggest that the wind-forced boundary current along the Nova Scotian shelf is trapped to within about 16 km of the coast.
The influence of local meteorology cannot account for the large-scale modes of variability. The coherent signal along the eastern boundary is correlated with changes in the Sverdrup transport of the North Atlantic and hence the large-scale wind field. The two modes on the western boundary appear to be related to baroclinic boundary current variations.
The Newlyn sea-level record is finally 'corrected' for some of the above effects to illustrate the utility of such a residual series in the identification of eustatic changes and vertical crustal movement.     

1998-2012年青藏高原TRMM 3B43降水数据的校准

运用1998-2012年青藏高原的TRMM 3B43降水数据以及气象台站实测降水数据,对比分析了青藏高原地区TRMM 3B43降水数据偏差分布规律。结果表明:(1) TRMM 3B43降水数据在青藏高原地区存在明显误差,特别是降水量大的地区和月份,偏差量较大。(2)青藏高原地区TRMM 3B43降水数据偏差分布与海拔、经纬度、降水量存在密切的关系。用偏差分布规律,加法修正法结合随机森林算法对青藏高原地区TRMM 3B43降水数据进行了校准。经过校准之后,数据精度得到显著提高,有效增加了数据的可用性,多年月平均数据决定系数R²最大可达到0.9(3、10月),最小也接近于0.5(12月),效率系数E均为正值,最大可达到90(3、10月);多年季平均和多年平均降水数据中除了第一季度结果稍差外(决定系数R²为0.58),其余数据校准效果均较好。     

怒江流域气候特征及其变化趋势

利用怒江流域及其毗邻地区16 个气象台站长时序逐月气温和降水量数据,运用TFPW-MK (Trend-free Pre-whitening Mann-Kendall) 检验和重复迭代变化诊断等方法,分析了近几十年来怒江流域气候要素空间格局和变化特征。结果表明:(1) 怒江流域气温(年平均、年最高和年最低) 和年降水量由北向南总体呈递增,并与海拔相关性极为显著(α=0.01),且气候要素值随海拔升高而降低;(2) 降水集中度地域差异明显,西藏境内降水集中度多达60%以上,全流域降水集中期(除贡山站外) 多介于7 月下旬至8 月下旬;(3) 流域升温趋势显著,其年平均、年最高和年最低气温变化趋势多与纬度和海拔呈显著相关,其中年平均气温增幅为0.36 ℃10a;(4) 部分站点气温变化存在突变点,且其多出现于暖冬频发的20 世纪80 年代以后;(5) 年降水量总体有所增多,但变化趋势多不显著,无明显变点。     

青藏高原植被NDVI对气候因子响应的格兰杰效应分析

多变的气候和复杂的地理环境使得青藏高原植被对气候变化响应敏感,因此分析高原植被与气候因子之间的动态关系对气候变化研究和生态系统管理具有重要意义。论文基于1982—2012年青藏高原气象数据(气温、降水)以及GIMMS NDVI3g遥感数据,在像素级别上运用格兰杰因果关系检验方法,在月尺度和季节尺度上分析了高原植被NDVI(主要是草原)与平均气温、降水量之间的响应情况及因果关系。研究表明：① 月尺度上NDVI与平均气温之间、NDVI与降水量之间的时序平稳性比例高于季节尺度,月尺度下达到平稳性的植被区域分别占99.13%和98.68%,季节尺度下分别占64.01%和71.97%;② 月尺度下高原平均气温和降水量对NDVI影响的滞后期都集中在第12~13个月,荒漠草原、典型草原和草甸3种植被类型的滞后期一致,季节尺度下平均气温和降水量对NDVI影响的滞后期主要分布在第3~4和第6个季度,3种植被类型的滞后期差异性较大;③ 月尺度下,青藏高原约98.95%的植被覆被区的平均气温是引起NDVI变化的格兰杰原因,反之,大部分地区(约89.05%,除高原东南区域)内NDVI也是引起平均气温变化的格兰杰原因;季节尺度下,青藏高原中部以外植被区域(约92.03%)内的平均气温是引起NDVI变化的格兰杰原因,而在东部和西部部分地区(约50.55%)中NDVI也是引起平均气温变化的格兰杰原因;④ 月尺度下,高原东北和西北地区(约72.05%)内的降水量是引起NDVI变化的格兰杰原因,大部分地区(约94.86%,除东南部少量区域)中NDVI是引起降水量变化的格兰杰原因;季节尺度下,高原东南部(约61.43%)地区内的降水量是引起NDVI变化的格兰杰原因,高原中东部地区(约48.98%)中NDVI是引起降水量变化的格兰杰原因。总之,高原植被NDVI与气温、降水的相互作用显著,彼此均可构成格兰杰因果效应,但总体上气候因子的影响程度大于植被的反馈作用,月尺度的效应区域大于季节尺度的效应区域。     

华南海岸沙丘岩形成与全新世气候变化(英文)

Coastal dune rocks in China are eolian sands cemented by calcium carbonate under subaerial conditions,widely distributing on the tropical and subtropical coasts of South China.Particular temperature and precipitation as well as local wave and landform conditions are required for the formation of the dune rocks.A correspondence was found between Holocene environmental changes and coastal dune rock development by comparing the features of the sea-level and climate changes in the Holocene period with the ages,...     

青海湖地区植被覆盖及其与气温降水变化的关系

使用1981年到2003年月NDVI(归一化植被指数）资料,计算了青海湖地区植被覆盖度,分析了该地区植被覆盖度的历史演变,发现其值在增大,尤其是从1996到2003年,青海湖地区的植被覆盖度都为正距平,NDVI年平均增长率为1.07×10-3。四季的植被覆盖度均为增加趋势,夏季增加最多。月平均温度与月植被覆盖度、春夏季降水与夏秋季植被覆盖度显著正相关。因此,热量条件和春夏季降水是影响青海湖地区植被生长的关键性因素。     

柴达木盆地气温、降水突变与周期特征分析

利用柴达木盆地6个站1954—2003年逐月气温、降水量资料,分析其近50年来气温、降水突变和周期特征。结果表明,盆地年气温与夏、秋、冬季气温增加趋势超过0.01显著性水平临界值,春季气温增加和年较差减小趋势达到0.05显著性水平。降水序列中,只有年降水与夏季降水增加达到0.10显著性水平。盆地各气温序列均有突变发生,年气温在20世纪80年代前期发生极显著暖突变,秋、冬季气温突变较春、夏季显著,冬季气温突变时间较其他季节偏早,在各气温序列中年较差突变时间最早。年降水在1976年发生突变,四季降水中只有春、夏季有突变。周期分析显示,盆地年气温变化的主周期按强弱依次为12 a、7 a和3 a,年降水主周期则依次为9 a和4 a。     

Impacts of land use and climate change on regional net primary productivity

Combined with recent historical climate data and two periods of land use data sets from remote sensing data, we test the net primary productivity (NPP) data sets in North China modelled by the satellite data-driven Global Production Efficiency Model (GLO-PEM) for detecting the widespread spatial and temporal characteristics of the impacts of climate and land use change on the regional NPP. Our results show that over the past 20 years, the mean annual temperature in the study region has remarkably increased by more than 0.064 oC, but over the same period, there has been a 1.49 mm decrease in annual precipitation and decrease in NPP by an annual rate of 6.9 TgC. The NPP changes in the study region were greatly affected by the average temperature and precipitation by ten-day periods as well as the seasonal temperature and precipitation in the study region. The correlation between seasonal NPP and seasonal precipitation and temperature is highly consistent with land cover spatially, and the correlation coefficient changes with the changes of vegetation types. The analysis reveals that the related areas in land use change only take up 5.45% of the whole studied region, so the climate changes dominate the impacts on the NPP in the whole study region (90% of the total). However, land use plays an absolute dominative role in areas with land cover changes, accounting for 97% of the total. From 1981 to 2000, the NPP in the whole study region remarkably reduced due to obvious precipitation decrease and temperature rise. Between two periods of land use (about 10 years), the changes in climate are predicted to promote a decrease in NPP by 78 (±0.6) TgC, and integrated impacts of climate changes and land use to promote a decrease in NPP by 87(±0.8) TgC.     

MODIS-based air temperature estimation in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and neighboring areas

Climatic conditions are difficult to obtain in high mountain regions due to few meteorological stations and, if any, their poorly representative location designed for convenient operation. Fortunately, it has been shown that remote sensing data could be used to estimate near-surface air temperature (Ta) and other climatic conditions. This paper makes use of recorded meteorological data and MODIS data on land surface temperature (Ts) to estimate monthly mean air temperatures in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and its neighboring areas. A total of 72 weather stations and 84 MODIS images for seven years (2001 to 2007) are used for analysis. Regression analysis and spatio-temporal analysis of monthly mean Ts vs. monthly mean Ta are carried out, showing that recorded Ta is closely related to MODIS Ts in the study region. The regression analysis of monthly mean Ts vs. Ta for every month of all stations shows that monthly mean Ts can be rather accurately used to estimate monthly mean Ta (R2 ranging from 0.62 to 0.90 and standard error between 2.25℃ and 3.23℃). Thirdly, the retrieved monthly mean Ta for the whole study area varies between 1.62℃ (in January, the coldest month) and 17.29 ℃ (in July, the warmest month), and for the warm season (May-September), it is from 13.1℃ to 17.29℃. Finally, the elevation of isotherms is higher in the central mountain ranges than in the outer margins; the 0℃ isotherm occurs at elevation of about 4500±500 m in October, dropping to 3500±500 m in January, and ascending back to 4500±500 m in May next year. This clearly shows that MODIS Ts data combining with observed data could be used to rather accurately estimate air temperature in mountain regions.     

土地利用和气候变化对区域净初级生产力影响

1IntroductionThe global change caused by the continuous increasing concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases has threatened the existence of human beings, and the importance of carbon dioxide emissions as a major environmental issue of international concern has grown substantially in the world (IPCC, 2000). At the same time, the Kyoto Protocol, the first and only realistic plan for achieving a worldwide reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, has been passed. Since there are many uncertai…