Attenuation modeling of recent earthquakes in Turkey

This paper deals with the derivation of a consistent set of empiricalattenuation relationships for predicting free-field horizontal components ofpeak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5 percent damped pseudoacceleration response spectra (PSA) from 47 strong ground motion recordsrecorded in Turkey. The relationships for Turkey were derived in similarform to those previously developed by Boore et al. (1997) for shallowearthquakes in western North America. The used database was compiledfor earthquakes in Turkey with moment magnitudes (M_w) = 5 thatoccurred between 1976–1999, and consisted of horizontal peak groundacceleration and 5 percent damped response spectra of accelerogramsrecorded on three different site conditions classified as rock, soil and softsoil. The empirical equations for predicting strong ground motion weretypically fit to the strong motion data set by applying nonlinear regressionanalysis according to both random horizontal components and maximumhorizontal components. Comparisons of the results show that groundmotion relations for earthquakes in one region cannot be simply modifiedfor use in engineering analyses in another region. Our results, patternedafter the Boore et al. expressions and dominated by the Kocaeli andDüzce events in 1999, appear to underestimate predictions based ontheir curves for up to about 15 km. For larger distances the reverse holds.     

Critical evaluation of strong motion in Kocaeli and Düzce (Turkey) earthquakes

Turkey was struck by two major events on August 17th and November 12th, 1999. Named Kocaeli (M_w=7.4) and Düzce (M_w=7.2) earthquakes, respectively, the two earthquakes provided the most extensive strong ground motion data set ever recorded in Turkey. The strong motion stations operated by the General Directorate of Disaster Affairs, the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute of Bogazici University and Istanbul Technical University have produced at least 27 strong motion records for the Kocaeli earthquake within 200 km of the fault. Kocaeli earthquake has generated six motions within 20 km of the fault adding significantly to the near-field database of ground motions for M_w>=7.0 strike–slip earthquakes. The paper discusses available strong motion data, studies their attenuation characteristics, analyses time domain, as well as spectral properties such as spectral accelerations with special emphasis on fault normal and fault parallel components and the elastic attenuation parameter, kappa. A simulation of the Kocaeli earthquake using code FINSIM is also presented.     

Ground motion directionality inferred from a survey of minaret damage during the 1999 Kocaeli and Düzce, Turkey earthquakes

Directionality of ground motions has been discussed in near-source groundmotion study. This is interesting from the point of structural response.Dominance of the fault normal (FN) component has been reported inrelation to fault rupture direction based on the observation recordsobtained in the source area (e.g.. Somerville et al., 1996). The authorsperformed the damage survey of the two Turkey earthquakes in 1999, theKocaeli and the Düzce earthquake, and realized that minaret is a goodtarget to investigate the ground motion directionality, because a minaret isa simple cantilever structure without structural directionality. This paperdescribes the ground motion directionality based on the survey of minaretdamages during the two earthquakes in Turkey. From the damage survey,it is found that the fault normal direction was dominant with a certaindistance from the fault, say, less than 1km. While, at the region withshorter distances, the damage direction was not fault normal but about40^° from the fault strike. Discussion is addressed for the specificdamage direction inferred from the minaret damage near the fault.     

Construction of GPS MonitoringNetwork,Characteristics of RecentCrustal Movement,and Relationbetween Stress Field andEarthquake Activity in the NingxiaRegion

INT正ODU**!0厂Nln以la Is located In the nol’th segmentdthe North－southselsnuc Belt,Whlchls thejuncturedthe Qinghai－Xizang(Dbet)block,Alxa block and Odos block．In that region,the tectonic activity。svery strong;。y strong earthquakes occu。d In history,such as the 1739 ingluo M。8．0 earthqu拙eandl920 Halyuan M。8．5 eafthquake,etc．; Merately strongeaFthquakes are still veryactlve atpresent,onlyln the Wuzhong－un斟m area,there have been7 e血hquakes tvlth M。＞5．0 to occ…     

阿克苏跨断层形变观测资料分析及其与地震关系的研究

结合阿克苏台周边5级以上中强地震和100 km范围内的4级地震,对阿克苏台跨断层形变资料进行分析.分析结果表明,断层的垂直、水平位移形变异常变化与中强地震活动有明显的对应关系.在监控区350 km范围内的中强地震前,垂直形变异常形态表现为次波效应,而水平形变在100 km范围内的4级地震前则出现明显的伸长或缩短的异常特征.     

欧洲中小震基岩水平向地震动衰减关系研究

大震与中小震之间的地震动衰减规律有所不同.本文使用了132条欧洲基岩水平向记录研究中小震地震动衰减规律.震级范围在地方震级4～6级,距离在震源距70km以内.本文得到了峰值加速度和5%阻尼比、周期0.04～4.00秒之间的加速度反应谱的衰减关系.通过与欧洲和美国西部地震动衰减关系对比,分析了在地震活动性不同的地区内,大震与中小震之间存在的差异有何不同.     

Long-term seismicity in regions of present day low seismic activity: the example of western Europe

In western Europe, the knowledge of long-term seismicity is based on reliable historical seismicity and covers a time period of less than 700 years. Despite the fact that the seismic activity is considered as low in the region extending from the Lower Rhine Embayment to England, historical information collected recently suggests the occurrence of three earthquakes with magnitude around 6.0 or greater. These events are a source of information for the engineer or the scientist involved in mitigation against large earthquakes. We provide information relevant to this aspect for the Belgian earthquake of September 18, 1692. The severity of the damage described in original sources indicates that its epicentral intensity could be IX (EMS-98 scale) and that the area with intensity VII and greater than VII has at least a mean radius of 45 km. Following relationships between average macroseismic radii and magnitude for earthquakes in stable continental regions, its magnitude M_s is estimated as between 6.0 and 6.5. To extend in time our knowledge of the seismic activity, we conducted paleoseismic investigations in the Roer Graben to address the question of the possible occurrence of large earthquakes with coseismic surface ruptures. Our study along the Feldbiss fault (the western border of the graben) demonstrates its recent activity and provides numerous lines of evidence of Holocene and Late Pleistocene large earthquakes. It suggests that along the 10 km long Bree fault scarp, the return period for earthquakes with magnitude from 6.2 to 6.7 ranges from 10,000 to 20,000 years during the last 50,000 years. Considering as possible the occurrence of similar earthquakes along all the Quaternary faults in the Lower Rhine Embayment, a large earthquake could occur there each 500–1000 years. These results are important in two ways. (i) The evidence that large earthquakes occur in western Europe in the very recent past which is not only attested by historical sources, but also suggested by paleoseismic investigations in the Roer Graben. (ii) The existence of a scientific basis to better evaluate the long-term seismicity in this part of Europe (maximal magnitude and return period) in the framework of seismic hazard assessment.     

Pan-European ground-motion prediction equations for the average horizontal component of PGA,PGV, and 5 %-damped PSA at spectral periods up to 3.0 s using the RESORCE dataset

This article presents a set of Ground-Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) for Europe and the Middle East, derived from the RESORCE strong motion data bank, following a standard regression approach. The parametric GMPEs are derived for the peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and 5 %-damped pseudo-absolute acceleration response spectra computed over 23 periods between 0.02 and 3 s, considering the average horizontal-component ground-motions. The GMPEs are valid for distances less than 300 km, hypocentral depth up to 35 km and over the magnitude range 4–7.6. Two metrics for the source-to-station distance (i.e. Joyner-Boore and hypocentral) are considered. The selected dataset is composed by 2,126 recordings (at a period of 0.1 s) related to 365 earthquakes, that includes strong-motion data from 697 stations.The EC8 soil classification (four classes from A to D) discriminates recording sites and four classes (normal, reverse, strike-slip, and unspecified) describe the style of faulting. A subset which contains only stations with measured Vs30 and earthquakes with specified focal mechanism (1,224 records from 345 stations and 255 earthquakes) is used to test of the accuracy of the median prediction and the variability associated to the broader data set. A random effect regression scheme is applied and bootstrap analyses are performed to estimate the 95 % confidence levels for the parameters. The total standard deviation sigma is decomposed into between-events and within-event components, and the site-to-site component is evaluated as well. The results show that the largest contribution to the total sigma is coming from the within-event component. When analyzing the residual distributions, no significant trends are observed that can be ascribed to the earthquake type (mainshock-aftershock classification) or to the non-linear site effects. The proposed GMPEs have lower median values than global models at short periods and large distances, while are consistent with global models at long periods $(\hbox {T} > 1)$  s. Consistency is found with two regional models developed for Turkey and Italy, as the considered dataset is dominated by waveforms recorded in these regions.     

Geodynamic modelling of the recent stress and strain field in the Vogtland swarm earthquake area using the finite-element-method

The study of several swarm earthquake regions led us to the assumption that swarm quakes mostly occur in combination with fluid migration and often in the neighbourhood of volcanoes. Observations of the strong carbon dioxide flux and investigations of Weinlich et al. (1999) about recent volcanism in the Vogtland/ Western Bohemia are the linking part to global observations of swarm earthquakes. This idea and the theoretical modelling of Yamashita (1999) were the starting point to develop a model using the finite-element-method with the software package ABAQUS concerning stress field, pore pressure, temperature and deformation in the Vogtland swarm quake area. The model is intended to reveal the interaction between fluid migration, temperature changes and deformation in this area. Its horizontal dimensions are 55 km×60 km and 30 km in depth. The main geological units include the Marianske Lazne Fault Zone and the Eger Rift. We focus on that part of the Vogtland/Western Bohemia region where these two fault zones cross. The model takes into consideration the stress field, Mohr–Coulomb failure, thermal stresses as well as creep and poro-elastoplastic rheologies. The results show that the rate of deformation and the stress accumulation caused only by the regional stress field is not high enough to generate the swarm earthquakes. But periodic change of pore pressure (which includes fluid migration) in combination with temperature changes has a severe influence on the rate of deformation and is in the dimension to cause swarm quakes.     

Geokinematics of Central Europe: New insights from the CERGOP-2/Environment Project

The Central European Geodynamics Project CERGOP-2, funded by the European Union from 2003 to 2006 under the 5th Framework Programme, benefited from repeated measurements of the coordinates of epoch and permanent GPS stations of the Central European GPS Reference Network (CEGRN), starting in 1994. Here we report on the results of the systematic processing of available data up to 2005. The analysis has yielded velocities for some 60 sites, covering a variety of Central European tectonic provinces, from the Adria Indenter to the Tauern Window, the Dinarides, the Pannonian Basin, the Vrancea Seismic Zone and the Carpathian Mountains. The estimated velocities define kinematical patterns which outline, with varying spatial resolution depending on the station density and history, the present-day surface kinematics in Central Europe. Horizontal velocities are analyzed after removal from the ITRF2000 estimated velocities of a rigid rotation accounting for the mean motion of Europe: a 2.3 mm/year north–south oriented convergence rate between Adria and the Southern Alps that can be considered to be the present-day velocity of the Adria Indenter relative to the European Foreland. An eastward extrusion zone initiates at the Tauern Window. The lateral eastward flow towards the Pannonian Basin exhibits a gentle gradient from 1 to 1.5 mm/year immediately east of the Tauern Window to zero in the Pannonian Basin. This kinematic continuity implies that the Pannonian plate fragment recently suggested by seismic data does not require a specific Eulerian pole. On the southeastern boundary of the Adria microplate, we report a velocity drop from 4 to 4.5 mm/year motion near Matera to 1 mm/year north of the Dinarides, in the southwestern part of the Pannonian Basin. A positive velocity gradient as one moves south from West Ukraine across Rumania and Bulgaria is estimated to be 2 mm/year on a scale of 600–800 km, as if the crust were dragged by the counterclockwise rotation along the North Anatolian Fault Zone. This regime apparently does not interfere with the Vrancea Seismic Zone: earthquakes there are sufficiently deep (>100 km) that the brittle deformation at depth can be considered as decoupled from the creep at the surface. We conclude that models of the Quaternary tectonics of Central and Eastern Europe should not neglect the long wavelength, nearly aseismic deformation affecting the upper crust in the Romanian and Bulgarian regions.     

Monitoring the horizontal movement along the Shanxi fault zone by GPS measurement

IntroductionShanxi is a significant seismic activity area in North China (WANG, 1995), named as Shanxi fault zone. One can see how important it is by the name. Up to now, a large number of achievements have been obtained from the studies mainly by the geological method. In order to improve the seismic research and carry out earthquake monitoring and prediction in this area, a GPS horizontal deformation monitoring network is established along the fault from the north to the south by the Se…     

Study of the Relation Between the Features of Fault Deformation Tendency Anomaly and Earthquake Activity in the West of China

Using the tendentious accumulation rate of crustal deformation,DC,the spatial distributionfeatures of deformation across fault in the West of China was studied;the regional patterns ofdeformation accumulation induced by fault activity was established and its seismogenicmeaning was discussed.The types of fault deformation evolution in the time domain and thefeatures of change of large extent anomaly in fault deformation which occurred in 1995～1996was analyzed comprehensively.It was indicated definitely that 1995～1996 is the turningpoint of fault network activity in the West of China since the 1990s;it is closely related to thechange of main seismic active regions in the West of China,i.e,the alternation of strong/weak stages and the change of action range of tectonic stress field in the Qinghai-Tibet blockand its environs;and hence it is of medium-and short-term precursor meaning for the changeof the overall pattern of earthquake activity in the West of China in the year 1996.On such abasis,a preliminar     

系统科学在京津地区断层形变网络与地震关系研究中的应用.

本文用系统科学(信息论方法)的部分原理和方法,对华北地区断层形变网络与地震的关系进行了系统的分析和处理.结果证明,唐山地震前,作为与发震断层有关的京津地区断层形变网络具有明显的群体异常特征.以此特征来预测,时间在未来一年,范围在150km,震级7.0的地震具有实际意义.      

1303年山西洪洞8级地震震源断层研究

1303年在山西洪洞附近发生的8级巨大地震, 是中国根据现存较为详细的文献记载史料所确定的最早的一次8级地震。 这次地震距今已有700多年的历史, 而地震所在区域至今仍有持续不断的小地震活动。 本文根据地震破裂区1981年至2013年的中小地震精定位地震目录, 采用震源断层面拟合方法, 反演得到了1303年山西洪洞地震的震源断层面参数: 走向19.3°、 倾角88.5°、 滑动角-170.0°。 断层面长75.5 km, 宽26.2 km, 深度为地下11.12 ～37.35 km。 将地震破裂区的地震精确定位资料以近东西向的洪洞断裂为界划分为地震北段和地震南段, 分段进行地震震源断层拟合, 反演得到洪洞地震北段震源断层面参数: 走向13.7°、 倾角76.6°、 滑动角-157.6°。 断层面长32.7 km, 宽21.7 km, 深度为地下11.97～32.86 km; 南段震源断层面参数: 走向20.3°、 倾角87.1°、 滑动角-154.6°。 断层面长45.9 km, 宽16.6 km, 深度为地下9.32 km～25.50 km。 无论是分段还是不分段, 反演得到的洪洞地震震源断层均是右倾的近直立断层, 属于右旋走向滑动性质。 分段计算得到的地震北段震源断层深度比南段更深, 将反演得到的震源断层与临汾盆地深部构造最新研究成果进行了分析对比, 北段震源断层深度及倾角大小与深地震剖面推测得到的深大断裂几乎相同。 震源断层在地表的投影与洪洞地震的高烈度区能够较好地对应。     

Application of system science to the study of the relation between the fault deformation network in the Beijing-Tianjin area and earthquakes

A systematic analysis and processing of the relation between the fault deformation network in the Beijing-Tianjin area and earthquakes by part of the principle and method of system science (Information theory) is reported in this paper. The result of the study indicates that the fault deformation network related to the fault loading to the earthquake in the Beijing-Tianjin area, exhibited obvious features of colony anomalies before the Tangshan earthquake of 1976. With this feature, there is special meaning to the prediction of earthquakes with magnitude ?7.0 in the time of the coming year, within the range of 150 km.     

Response of vertical deformation on faults to remote strong earthquakes

Vertical coseismic deformation on non-causative fault caused by remote strong earthquakes(epicentral distance≥1500 km,MS≥7.0)are observed by fault-monitoring instruments of new type during recent two years.The monitor-ing result shows,delay time,maximum amplitude and duration of vertical deformation on the non-causative faulthave remarkable close relationship with earthquakes magnitude and epicentral distance.The delay time of verticalcoseismic deformation have positive linear relationship with epicentral distance.The velocity of coseismic defor-mation is 5.5 km/s,close to the velocity of surface wave in granite.The logarithms of maximum amplitude of co-seismic deformation and epicentral distance have remarkable linear relationship with magnitude.The greater themagnitude and the closer the epicentral distance are,the bigger the maximum amplitude of coseismic deformationon non-causative fault will be.Relative to the epicentral distance,the magnitude is the most important factor to theduration of coseismic vertical deformation on the non-causative fault.Stronger earthquake causes longer vibrationduration of coseismic deformation.The experiential equation of co-seismic deformation faults obtained by thiswork is significant on the coseismic deformation research.     

南天山及塔里木北缘构造带西段地震构造研究

南天山及塔里木北缘构造带位于帕米尔地区东北侧,地震活动强烈。文中通过地质构造剖面、深部探测资料和地震震源机制解资料,综合研究了该区的地震构造模型。结果认为,该区的构造活动主要表现为天山地块逆冲于塔里木地块之上。天山构造系统包括迈丹断裂及其前缘推覆构造;塔里木构造系统包括深部的塔里木北缘断裂、基底共轭断层和浅部的推覆构造。塔里木北缘断裂是发育于塔里木地壳内部的高角度断裂,其形成原因在于塔里木和天山构造变形方向的差异。塔里木北缘断裂为研究区大地震的主要发震构造,天山推覆构造和塔里木基底断裂系统均具有不同性质的中强地震发震能力     

Relations for local magnitude at seismic station Berggiesshübel

Summary New calibrating functions for the local magnitude M_L based on the maximum ratio of amplitude and period of the S_g - wave, the short-period surface wave and the duration of the whole seismogram and its part starting with the arrival of the S_g -wave recorded by the short-period vertical seismograph at Berggiesshübel (BRG) have been derived. The consistency of these magnitudes was tested for weak earthquakes and industrial blasts in the magnitude range of 1.7–3.5 and epicentral distances up to 80 km. Their differences were 0.2 of a magnitude unit at most, with the exception of the surface wave magnitudes which were systematic by about 0.9 of a magnitude unit greater. The calibrating function for the S_g - wave was compared with the functions for M_L(POT) and M_L(TRI) which were derived by other authors for several Central European seismic stations, including BRG.     

Series of asymmetric pulses in the low-frequency range (Periods of 1–300 min) of microseisms as indicators of a metastable state in seismically active zones

Analysis of microseismic oscillations in a period range of several minutes recorded before the Kronotsky (December 5, 1997), Simushir (November 15, 2006), Hokkaido (September 25, 2003), and Neftegorsk (May 27, 1995) earthquakes revealed series of asymmetric pulses (SAPs) arising a few days before the earthquakes. Records of IRIS stations located at various distances from epicenters of the earthquakes were analyzed. SAPs were recorded only by stations located in a seismoactive zone in which an earthquake occurred. The SAP onset times and amplitudes are uncorrelated with the microseismic noise level in a period range of several seconds caused by storm phenomena in the ocean and other meteorological factors. Some intervals between successive pulses had the same length, which indicated a periodicity of their occurrence. It is supposed that SAPs can be caused by elastoplastic displacements in a fault zone.     

喀什河断裂带古地震研究

喀什河断裂带是我国北天山西段一条规模较大的活动断裂,第四纪以来垂直运动速率为3.8毫米/年,现今地震活动频繁。历史上曾发生过1812年尼勒克8级地震,沿断层带造成长达80公里的形变带,史前地震也很活跃,经初步研究,断裂带至少发生过两次古地震活动,大震复发周期为2000—2500年