Wave interpretation of major Baltic inflows

The water dynamics in the straits between the North and Baltic seas during two major Baltic inflows that took place in the January of 1993 and 2003 is investigated using satellite altimetry data. It is found that the water mass surge to the eastern coast of the North Sea occurs before the beginning of the major Baltic inflow, and the sea level difference between the two seas is ~60 cm. Low-frequency fluctuations in the sea level and its wave parameters are studied. The wavelet analysis and the frequency-directed spectral analysis reveal the wave nature of the mechanisms leading to major Baltic inflows. The empirical characteristics of the obtained low-frequency waves are compared with the theoretical dispersion relations for the gradient-vorticity waves. Sea level variations during major Baltic inflows in the Danish Straits are identified as baroclinic Rossby waves. The analysis of cyclonic activity in the Northern Hemisphere demonstrated that stationary cyclones were observed during the inflows; this proves the feasibility of the resonance mechanism of the generation of major Baltic inflows.     

Mesoscale Wind Field Modifications over the Baltic Sea

For two consecutive days during spring 1997, the windfield over the Baltic Sea has been studied. Thestrength of the geostrophic wind speed is the majordifference in synoptic conditions between these twodays. During both days, the mesoscale wind field overmost of the Baltic Sea is quite heterogeneous; themodifications primarily being caused by the land-seacontrasts. On the day with the weaker wind speed,sea-breeze circulations develop. As a consequence, thewind direction at lower levels is more or lessopposite to the geostrophic over large areas of theBaltic Sea and the surface wind speed decreases withoffshore distance. Wind speed maxima caused by the seabreezes are found along the east coasts in the studiedarea. For the other day, the slow growth of a stableinternal boundary layer over the sea also gives asurface wind speed decrease with offshore distancefrom the coast.     

On mechanism of the large-sized rocky block transportation by mud stream

In this paper, a methodology of estimation of the transportation velocity and place of stopping of a large-sized rocky block, which is moved by mud stream, is proposed. This approach takes into account hydraulic characteristics of different stream sections and geometric parameters of the block.     

The influence of momentum advection on the Baltic Sea dynamics

Contribution of momentum advection to the formation of the low frequency fields of the Baltic Sea levels and currents is estimated using numerical experiments with a hydrodynamic model and statistical analysis of the experimental results. It is found that momentum advection has a significant influence on the formation of the mean level and its seasonal and synoptic variability in Neva Bay of the Gulf of Finland. The results show that nonlinear effects associated with advective accelerations can essentially contribute to the Neva River flood formation.     

On mechanism of hail cloud modification by seeding

The hail cloud modification is carried out by means of the cloud seeding with AgI particles of submicron sizes, in order to create nuclei competing with the natural ones for supercooled liquid droplet water, or in order to accelerate precipitation generation. However, scientific research confirmed a primary role of giant and supergiant particles in generation of nuclei of convective precipitation and hail. Such particles occur also at high levels (5 km and more). As the cloud and precipitation particles grow mainly through coagulation, one can hardly expect a high success from the cloud seeding with AgI submicron particles for hail suppression. In the hail process modification, the Ag particles settle down not at the nuclei but in the hailstone layers. So, AgI is spent not for additional hail nuclei creation, but for intensification of coagulation growth of natural cloud and precipitation particles. This can represent one of the main mechanisms for cloud modification.     

Numerical modelling of the energy and water cycle of the Baltic Sea

Summary This paper will introduce the Baltex research programme and summarize associated numerical modelling work which has been undertaken during the last five years. The research has broadly managed to clarify the main mechanisms determining the water and energy cycle in the Baltic region, such as the strong dependence upon the large scale atmospheric circulation. It has further been shown that the Baltic Sea has a positive water balance, albeit with large interannual variations. The focus on the modelling studies has been the use of limited area models at ultra-high resolution driven by boundary conditions from global models or from reanalysis data sets. The programme has further initiated a comprehensive integration of atmospheric, land surface and hydrological modelling incorporating snow, sea ice and special lake models. Other aspects of the programme include process studies such as the role of deep convection, air sea interaction and the handling of land surface moisture. Studies have also been undertaken to investigate synoptic and sub-synoptic events over the Baltic region, thus exploring the role of transient weather systems for the hydrological cycle. A special aspect has been the strong interests and commitments of the meteorological and hydrological services because of the potentially large societal interests of operational applications of the research. As a result of this interests special attention has been put on data-assimilation aspects and the use of new types of data such as SSM/I, GPS-measurements and digital radar. A series of high resolution data sets are being produced. One of those, a 1/6 degree daily precipitation climatology for the years 1996–1999, is such a unique contribution. The specific research achievements to be presented in this volume of Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics is the result of a cooperative venture between 11 European research groups supported under the EU-Framework programmes. Received December 15, 2000 Revised March 28, 2001     

On the mechanism of the seasonal variability of SST in the tropical Indian Ocean

A general form of an equation that "explicitly" diagnoses SST change is derived. All other equations in wide use are its special case. Combining with the data from an ocean general circulation model (MOM2) with an integration of 10 years (1987-1996), the relative importances of various processes that determine seasonal variations of SST in the tropical Indian Ocean are compared mainly for January, April, July and October. The main results are as follows. (1) The net surface heat flux is the most important factor affecting SST over the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal and the region south of the equator in January; in April, its influence covers almost the whole region studied; whereas in July and October, this term shows significance only in the regions south of 10°S and north of the equator, respectively. (2) The horizontal advection dominates in the East African-Arabian coast and the region around the equator in January and July; in October, the region is located south of 10°S. (3) The entrainment is s     

Reconstruction of the ice winter severity since 1701 in the Western Baltic

This reconstruction of the ice winter severity in the Western Baltic is based for the period 1878-1993 on the accumulated areal ice volume along the German Baltic coast with observations from 13 coastal stations; for the period 1701-1877 it is based on the accumulated areal ice volume divided into 7 classes (ice winter severity types). The various types of data consulted in the latter case provided ice data of good spatial and temporal resolution.Speerschneider's compilation of data relating to ice conditions in Danish Baltic waters was found to be a valuable source of information. Using a classification table for the periods 1907-1943 and 1947-1992, five of the seven ice winter types have been derived with certainty as they are characterized by typical stages of maximum ice cover throughout the Western Baltic.The Gaussian lowpass-filtered time series of the ice winter index numerals with a 20 year cutoff period shows four periods of varying ice winter severity over a secular range: 1701-1720: slightly increased ice winter severity with regard to the mean of the 1701-1993 time series; this period can be assigned to the end of a cooling phase during Little Ice Age which in central Europe peaked in the second half of the 17th c. 1721-1760: ice winter severity is clearly reduced in this period. 1761-1860: ice winter severity is clearly increased (maximum occurs around 1800) towards the end of the Little Ice Age, associated with increased variability of ice production. 1861-1993: the present-day ice winter regime when three short intervals with increased ice winter severity (the 1890s, 1940s and 1980s) and a period of greatly reduced ice winter severity (between 1900 and the mid-1920s) stand out.     

On the mechanism of winter cyclogenesis in relation to vertical axis tilt

Summary ?This work is concerned with the behavior of the vertical trough axis tilt during the development of a Mediterranean cyclone. The period covering stages of the development of the depression is from 1200 UTC 18 January to 1200 UTC 25 January 1981. Two procedures have been used to illustrate the behavior of the vertical axis tilt with the development of our case study. In the first direct procedure we trace the centers of the cyclone for each level for each day and determine its longitude. In the second indirect procedure we compute the values and signs of the product of the perturbation of temperature and meridional velocity over the computational domain. The energetics of the depression is studied and the partition of available potential energy and kinetic energy into zonal and eddy component is adopted. The energy contents and their changes in different atmospheric levels are discussed in the course of the cyclone’s development. Received April 27, 2001; Revised December 12, 2001     

River discharge to the Baltic Sea in a future climate

This study reports on new projections of discharge to the Baltic Sea given possible realisations of future climate and uncertainties regarding these projections. A high-resolution, pan-Baltic application of the Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model was used to make transient simulations of discharge to the Baltic Sea for a mini-ensemble of climate projections representing two high emissions scenarios. The biases in precipitation and temperature adherent to climate models were adjusted using a Distribution Based Scaling (DBS) approach. As well as the climate projection uncertainty, this study considers uncertainties in the bias-correction and hydrological modelling. While the results indicate that the cumulative discharge to the Baltic Sea for 2071 to 2100, as compared to 1971 to 2000, is likely to increase, the uncertainties quantified from the hydrological model and the bias-correction method show that even with a state-of-the-art methodology, the combined uncertainties from the climate model, bias-correction and impact model make it difficult to draw conclusions about the magnitude of change. It is therefore urged that as well as climate model and scenario uncertainty, the uncertainties in the bias-correction methodology and the impact model are also taken into account when conducting climate change impact studies.     

论江淮气旋生成的一种机制

本文从理论上探讨了夏季江淮气旋生成的一种机制。理论分析和理论计算说明,江淮气旋的生成是积云对流与天气尺度的气旋性扰动间正反馈的结果,其机理类似于热带海洋上台风的形成。较深厚的积云对流所造成的凝结加热和涡度混合是气旋生成的主要原因。没有积云活动,仅仅是大尺度凝结加热不大可能促成这种气旋的生成。     

Twentieth-century trends in the thermal growing season in the Greater Baltic Area

Phenological data have shown an increase of ca. 10 days in European growing season length in the latter part of the twentieth century. In general, these changes have been associated with global warming. Here we present a study of thermal growing season (GS) trends in the Greater Baltic Area, northern Europe. Yearly dates for the start, end and length of the GS were computed for 49 stations in the studied area, using daily mean temperature measurements. Trends and tendencies of the GS parameters were analysed within the twentieth century. We also examined GS trends in long records (starting before 1850) from the region. The results show a general increase of the length of the GS of ca one week since 1951 in the area, where the most considerable change has occurred in spring (starting ∼6 days earlier). The largest increases were found at stations adjacent to the Baltic Sea and North Sea, where some Danish stations showed significant increasing trends in the length of the GS of more than 20 days. The only tendency for a shorter GS was found in Archangelsk, north western Russia. The three longest records displayed large inter-annual and decadal variability, with tendencies for increased frequencies of longer growing seasons since the 1950s.     

Microphysical,chemical and optical aerosol properties in the Baltic Sea region

The microphysical structure, chemical composition and prehistory of aerosol are related to the aerosol optical properties and radiative effect in the UV spectral range. The aim of this work is the statistical mapping of typical aerosol scenarios and adjustment of regional aerosol parameters. The investigation is based on the in situ measurements in Preila (55.55° N, 21.00° E), Lithuania, and the AERONET data from the Gustav Dalen Tower (58 N, 17 E), Sweden.Clustering of multiple characteristics enabled to distinguish three aerosol types for clear-sky periods: 1) clean maritime–continental aerosol; 2) moderately polluted maritime–continental aerosol; 3) polluted continental aerosol. Differences between these types are due to significant differences in aerosol number and volume concentration, effective radius of volume distribution, content of SO₄⁻ ions and Black Carbon, as well as different vertical profiles of atmospheric relative humidity. The UV extinction, aerosol optical depth (AOD) and the Ångstrom coefficient α increased with the increasing pollution. The value α = 1.96 was observed in the polluted continental aerosol that has passed over central and eastern Europe and southern Russia. Reduction of the clear-sky UV index against the aerosol-free atmosphere was of 4.5%, 27% and 41% for the aerosol types 1, 2 and 3, respectively.     

Microphysical, chemical and optical aerosol properties in the Baltic Sea region

The microphysical structure, chemical composition and prehistory of aerosol are related to the aerosol optical properties and radiative effect in the UV spectral range. The aim of this work is the statistical mapping of typical aerosol scenarios and adjustment of regional aerosol parameters. The investigation is based on the in situ measurements in Preila (55.55° N, 21.00° E), Lithuania, and the AERONET data from the Gustav Dalen Tower (58 N, 17 E), Sweden.Clustering of multiple characteristics enabled to distinguish three aerosol types for clear-sky periods: 1) clean maritime–continental aerosol; 2) moderately polluted maritime–continental aerosol; 3) polluted continental aerosol. Differences between these types are due to significant differences in aerosol number and volume concentration, effective radius of volume distribution, content of SO₄⁻ ions and Black Carbon, as well as different vertical profiles of atmospheric relative humidity. The UV extinction, aerosol optical depth (AOD) and the Ångstrom coefficient α increased with the increasing pollution. The value α = 1.96 was observed in the polluted continental aerosol that has passed over central and eastern Europe and southern Russia. Reduction of the clear-sky UV index against the aerosol-free atmosphere was of 4.5%, 27% and 41% for the aerosol types 1, 2 and 3, respectively.     

Precipitation and evaporation budgets over the Baltic Proper: observations and modelling

Precipitation and evaporation budgets over the Baltic Sea were studied in a concerted project called PEP in BALTEX (Pilot study of Evaporation and Precipitation in the Baltic Sea), combining extensive field measurements and modelling efforts. Eddy-correlation-measurements of turbulent heat flux were made on a semi-continuous basis for a 12 month period at four well-exposed coastal sites in the Baltic Proper (the main basin of the Baltic Sea). Precipitation was measured at land-based sites with standard gauges and on four merchant ships travelling between Germany and Finland with the aid of specially designed ship rain gauges (SRGs). The evaporation and precipitation regime of the Baltic Sea was modelled for a 12 month period by applying a wide range of numerical models: the operational atmospheric High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM, Swedish and Finnish versions), the German atmospheric REgional-scale MOdel, REMO, the operational German Europe Model (only precipitation), the oceanographic model PROBE-Baltic, and two models that use interpolation of ground-based data, the Swedish MESAN model of SMHI and a German model of IFM-GEOMAR Kiel. Modelled precipitation was compared with SRG measurements on board the ships. A reasonable correlation was obtained, but the regional-scale models and MESAN gave some 20% higher precipitation over the sea than is measured. Bulk parameterisation schemes for evaporation were evaluated against measurements. A constant value of C_HN and C_EN with wind speed, underestimated large fluxes of both sensible and latent heat flux. The limited area models do not resolve the influence of the height of the marine boundary layer in coastal zones and the entrainment (on the surface fluxes), which may explain the observed low correlations between modelled and measured latent heat fluxes. Estimates of evaporation, E, and precipitation, P, for the entire Baltic Proper were made with several models for a 12 month period. While the annual variation was well represented by all predictions, there are still important differences in the annual means. Evaporation ranges from 509 to 625 mm year^-1 and precipitation between 624 and 805 mm year^-1 for this particular 12 month period. Taking the results of model verification from the present study into account, the best estimate of P-E is about 100 ± 50 mm for this particular 12 month period. But the annual mean of P-E varies considerably from year to year. This is reflected in simulations with the PROBE-Baltic model for an 18 year period, which gave 95 mm year^-1 for the 12 month period studied here and 32 mm year^-1 as an average for 18 years.