Deforestation in Russia and its contribution to the anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide in 1990–2013

The contribution of deforestation in Russia to the anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in 1990–2013 is estimated using the methods of computational monitoring. It is found that since 1990 the area of deforestation and forest conversion to other land-use categories is equal to 628.4 x 10³ ha. The respective CO₂ emissions from deforestation in Russia for the whole analyzed period are estimated at 142200 kt CO₂ with the average annual value of 5900 + 2270 kt CO₂/year. The largest contribution to the total losses is made by the changes in soil carbon stock (41.6%) and biomass carbon losses (28.8%). CO₂ emissions from deforestation make an insignificant contribution to the total anthropogenic CO₂ emission in the country (0.2%). Among the CO₂ sources in the land use, land-use change, and forestry sector (LULUCF), the emission from deforestation is the lowest with the average for 1990–2013 contribution of about 0.6%.     

Trends in precipitation parameters in the climate zones of southern Russia (1961–2011)

The data of 19 weather stations for 1961-2011 on total and maximum daily precipitation for the plain (<500 m above the sea level), foothill (500-1000 m), and mountain (1000-2000 m) zones of the south of European Russia are used for analyzing the precipitation regime, investigating its trends, revealing the extremes, and making conclusions on zonal seasonal and annual variations in precipitation.     

Variation in the number of days with heavy precipitation on the territory of Russia for the period of 1936–2000

Time variations in the number of days with heavy precipitation based on data of 93 stations on the territory of Russia are analyzed. Time series of precipitation, corrected by the elimination of main systematic errors of their measurement at the level of their diurnal sums, are used, when computing. The diurnal precipitation sum, exceeding the average long-term diurnal precipitation maximum by three times, was taken as the threshold quantitative criterion, defining “the day with heavy precipitation” concept. This value varies within 10–15 mm/day on the territory of Russia. Extremums fluctuate from 5 to 40 mm/day. Absolute values of linear trends of the annual number of days with heavy precipitation are comparatively small, they fluctuate within ±4 days on the whole territory of Russia. In relative terms, these variations are rather significant, reaching ±40% and more of the corresponding average value for 65 years. The comparison of the spatial distribution of characteristics of linear trends of the annual number of days with heavy precipitation and annual precipitation sum indicates their close conformity.     

Time changes of atmospheric precipitation in Russia from the corrected data during 1936–2000

Homogeneous time series of atmospheric precipitation with corrected systematic errors of measurements at 100 stations in Russia for the period of 1936–2000 are obtained. Combined effects are considered of all kinds of systematic errors of standard network precipitation-measuring instruments (the raingauge with the Nifer shield and the Tret’yakov raingauge) on the measured precipitation totals. Comparative analysis is carried out of the measured and corrected long-term mean characteristics of precipitation amounts (annual totals, warm and cold season totals, and different types of precipitation). On the basis of the obtained archives of precipitation homogeneous time series, linear trends are estimated for the period under consideration with estimation of their statistical significance. Schematic charts are plotted and analyzed of time changes in the annual precipitation amounts and in the amounts of different types of precipitation.     

Challenges to addressing non-CO2 greenhouse gases in China’s long-term climate strategy

Under the Paris Agreement, countries are encouraged to submit long-term low greenhouse gas emissions development strategies. Such strategies will merge emissions goals with socio-economic objectives and enable countries to increase their ambition over time, thus offering an opportunity to close the gap between the current emissions trajectory and the Agreement’s ‘well below 2°C’ target. China is in the process of preparing its own long-term strategy. We argue in this article that non-CO₂ greenhouse gases (NCGGs) should be an essential component of China’s long-term low-emissions strategy. To incorporate NCGGs into China’s long-term low-emissions development strategy, key scientific and institutional challenges should be addressed, such as uncertainty about the accuracy of NCGG emissions inventories; uncertainty about future projections of NCGG emissions; and institutional coordination deficits and imbalanced policy approaches. Overcoming these barriers will have significant implications for climate change mitigation and can open a path for the development of concrete follow-up actions.

Key policy insights

• Non-CO₂ greenhouse gases (NCGGs) make up around 17% of China’s GHG emissions, but China has no quantified target to limit or reduce these gases.

• NCGG emissions mitigation should be an essential component of China's long-term low-emissions strategy, which is currently under development.

• Considerable uncertainty exists over both historical NCGG emissions data and forecasts. This poses challenges to developing a comprehensive multi-gas strategy.

• Institutional challenges must also be addressed, such as fragmentation of responsibility for NCGGs.

     

Land cover change and soil organic carbon stocks in the Republic of Ireland 1851–2000

Using both historic records and CORINE land cover maps, we assessed the impact of land cover change on the stock of soil organic carbon (SOC) in the Republic of Ireland from 1851 to 2000. We identified ten principal land cover classes: arable land, forest, grassland, heterogeneous agricultural areas/other, nonvegetated semi-natural areas, peatland, suburban, urban, water bodies, and wetland. For each land cover class, the SOC stock was estimated as the product of SOC density and land cover area. These were summed to calculate a national SOC budget for the Republic of Ireland. The Republic of Ireland’s 6.94 million hectares of land have undergone considerable change over the past 150 years. The most striking feature is the decrease in arable land from 1.44 million ha in 1851 to 0.55 million ha in 2000. Over the same time period, forested land increased by 0.53 million ha. As of 2000, agricultural lands including arable land (7.85%), grassland (54.33%), and the heterogeneous agricultural areas/other class (7.91%) account for 70.09% of Irish land cover. We estimate that the SOC stock in the Republic of Ireland, to 1 m depth, has increased from 1,391 Tg in 1851 to 1,469 Tg in 2000 despite soil loss due to urbanization. This increase is largely due to the increase of forested land with its higher SOC stocks when compared to agricultural lands. Peatlands contain a disproportionate quantity of the SOC stock. Although peatlands only occupy 17.36% of the land area, as of 2000, they represented 36% of the SOC stock (to 1 m depth).     

Impacts of greenhouse gases and aerosol direct and indirect effects on clouds and radiation in atmospheric GCM simulations of the 1930–1989 period

Among anthropogenic perturbations of the Earths atmosphere, greenhouse gases and aerosols are considered to have a major impact on the energy budget through their impact on radiative fluxes. We use three ensembles of simulations with the LMDZ general circulation model to investigate the radiative impacts of five species of greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, CFC-11 and CFC-12) and sulfate aerosols for the period 1930–1989. Since our focus is on the atmospheric changes in clouds and radiation from greenhouse gases and aerosols, we prescribed sea-surface temperatures in these simulations. Besides the direct impact on radiation through the greenhouse effect and scattering of sunlight by aerosols, strong radiative impacts of both perturbations through changes in cloudiness are analysed. The increase in greenhouse gas concentration leads to a reduction of clouds at all atmospheric levels, thus decreasing the total greenhouse effect in the longwave spectrum and increasing absorption of solar radiation by reduction of cloud albedo. Increasing anthropogenic aerosol burden results in a decrease in high-level cloud cover through a cooling of the atmosphere, and an increase in the low-level cloud cover through the second aerosol indirect effect. The trend in low-level cloud lifetime due to aerosols is quantified to 0.5 min day^–1 decade^–1 for the simulation period. The different changes in high (decrease) and low-level (increase) cloudiness due to the response of cloud processes to aerosols impact shortwave radiation in a contrariwise manner, and the net effect is slightly positive. The total aerosol effect including the aerosol direct and first indirect effects remains strongly negative.     

Response of fine particulate matter to reductions in anthropogenic emissions in Beijing during the 2014 Asia–Pacific Economic Cooperation summit

研究使用全球大气化学传输模式GEOS-Chem高分辨率(1/4°×5/16°)区域嵌套版本评估2014年亚洲-太平洋经济合作峰会(APEC)期间不同地区不同污染物减排对北京地区PM_(2.5)(粒径小于2.5μm的气溶胶颗粒,本文中定义为硫酸盐、硝酸银、铵盐、一次有机碳和黑碳气溶胶浓度之和)浓度降低的不同影响。在2014年10月15日至11月29日期间,模拟结果表明:模式可以重现观测结果中PM_(2.5)及主要气态污染物(一氧化碳、二氧化氮和二氧化硫)浓度的日变化趋势。在APEC期间,模拟PM_(2.5)浓度相比会议前期和会议后期下降55.9%–58.5%,与观测结果具有较好的一致性。敏感性实验结果表明:APEC期间华北地区氮氧化物和一次有机碳的减排对于北京地区PM_(2.5)浓度的降低影响最为显著,相应减排措施致使北京地区PM_(2.5)浓度分别下降5.7%和4.6%。同时,对氨气排放的控制可以有效地降低整个华北地区在APEC期间的PM_(2.5)浓度。     

Causes of November cooling of the 1980s–1990s in European Russia

In the 1980s–1990s, a widespread November cooling occurred in European Russia against the background of global warming. Analysis showed that the observed cooling was caused by anomalous cold advection at the eastern edge of the area of positive sea-level pressure and geopotential anomaly centered over Scandinavia and the Gulf of Bothnia. This November circulation pattern is related to the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation in the preceding winter. It is concluded that the observed November cooling was caused by the prevalence of the positive phase of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation in the last two decades of the 20th century.     

Variations of characteristics of the mean atmospheric energy level in the area of the Franz Josef Land archipelago in 1935–2012

Proposed is a method for computing the average temperature of the vertical column of the atmosphere (the temperature of the average energy level) based on some features of energy characteristics of the atmosphere and using the radiosonde data within the mid-troposphere. The modem database is supplemented with the data of radio sounding carried out at Russian upper-air stations in 1934–1959. Variations of average annual values of temperature of the mean atmospheric energy level are observed with the period of several decades and with the amplitude of 4°C in 1935–2012. Intensive decrease in the mean annual values of height-integrated temperature has been registered in recent years. Long-period variations of its average seasonal values of the same nature are registered. They are most pronounced in winter and transition seasons and are significantly reduced in summer. The observed oscillations indicate the existence of disturbance sources of long-term scale that is typical of the evolution of the anomalies of the sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic. The nature of long-term changes in the temperature of the mean energy level enables to assume the existence of a local attractor in atmospheric changes near the Franz Josef Land archipelago associated with the features of the thermal state of the North European basin and with the ice regime, first of all, in the Barents Sea. The temperature of the mean energy level depends weakly on local greenhouse effects that allows distinguishing natural (nonantropogenic) causes of atmospheric disturbances in a more explicit form.     

Evaluation of Atmosphere–Land Interactions in an LES from the Perspective of Heterogeneity Propagation

Atmosphere–land interactions simulated by an LES model are evaluated from the perspective of heterogeneity propagation by comparison with airborne measurements. It is found that the footprints of surface heterogeneity, though as 2D patterns can be dissipated quickly due to turbulent mixing, as 1D projections can persist and propagate to the top of the atmospheric boundary layer. Direct comparison and length scale analysis show that the simulated heterogeneity patterns are comparable to the observation. The results highlight the model's capability in simulating the complex effects of surface heterogeneity on atmosphere–land interactions.     

The Role of Land–sea Distribution and Orography in the Asian Monsoon. Part I： Land–sea Distribution

A number of AGCM simulations were performed by including various land--sea distributions (LSDs), such as meridional LSDs, zonal LSDs, tropical large-scale LSDs, and subcontinental-scale LSDs, to identify their effects on the Asian monsoon. In seven meridional LSD experiments with the continent/ocean located to the north/south of a certain latitude, the LSDs remain identical except the southern coastline is varied from 40^o to 4^oN in intervals of 5.6^o. In the experiments with the coastline located to the north of 21^oN, no monsoon can be found in the subtropical zone. In contrast, a summer monsoon is simulated when the continent extends to the south of 21^oN. Meanwhile, the earlier onset and stronger intensity of the tropical summer monsoon are simulated with the southward extension of the tropical continent. The effects of zonal LSDs were investigated by including the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean into the model based on the meridional LSD run with the coastline located at 21^oN. The results indicate that the presence of a mid-latitude zonal LSD induces a strong zonal pressure gradient between the continent and ocean, which in turn results in the formation of an East Asian subtropical monsoon. The comparison of simulations with and without the Indian Peninsula and Indo-China Peninsula reveals that the presence of two peninsulas remarkably strengthens the southwesterly winds over South Asia due to the tropical asymmetric heating between the tropical land and sea. The tropical zonal LSD plays a crucial role in the formation of cumulus convection.     

The Role of Land–sea Distribution and Orography in the Asian Monsoon. Part I: Land–sea Distribution

A number of AGCM simulations were performed by including various land–sea distributions (LSDs), such as meridional LSDs, zonal LSDs, tropical large-scale LSDs, and subcontinental-scale LSDs, to identify their effects on the Asian monsoon. In seven meridional LSD experiments with the continent/ocean located to the north/south of a certain latitude, the LSDs remain identical except the southern coastline is varied from 40 ° to 4 ° N in intervals of 5.6° . In the experiments with the coastline located to the n...     

Air–Sea/Land Interaction in the Coastal Zone

Atmospheric turbulence measurements made at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Field Research Facility (FRF) located on the Atlantic coast near the town of Duck, North Carolina during the CASPER-East Program (October–November 2015) are used to study air–sea/land coupling in the FRF coastal zone. Turbulence and mean meteorological data were collected at multiple levels (up to four) on three towers deployed at different landward distances from the shoreline, with a fourth tower located at the end of a 560-m-long FRF pier. The data enable comparison of turbulent fluxes and other statistics, as well as investigations of surface-layer scaling for different footprints, including relatively smooth sea-surface conditions and aerodynamically rough dry inland areas. Both stable and unstable stratifications were observed. The drag coefficient and diurnal variation of the sensible heat flux are found to be indicators for disparate surface footprints. The drag coefficient over the land footprint is significantly greater, by as much as an order of magnitude, compared with that over the smooth sea-surface footprint. For onshore flow, the internal boundary layer in the coastal zone was either stable or (mostly) unstable, and varied dramatically at the land-surface discontinuity. The offshore flow of generally warm air over the cooler sea surface produced a stable internal boundary layer over the ocean surface downstream from the coast. While the coastal inhomogeneities violate the assumptions underlying Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST), any deviations from MOST are less profound for the scaled standard deviations and the dissipation rate over both water and land, as well as for stable and unstable conditions. Observations, however, show a poor correspondence with MOST for the flux-profile relationships. Suitably-averaged, non-dimensional profiles of wind speed and temperature vary significantly among the different flux towers and observation levels, with high data scatter. Overall, the statistical dependence of the vertical gradients of scaled wind speed and temperature on the Monin–Obukhov stability parameter in the coastal area is weak, if not non-existent.     

Long‐term variations in the turbidity of the arctic atmosphere in Russia

Abstract

Temporal variations of the transmission coefficient and aerosol optical depth of the atmosphere are considered using multi‐year observations at the Soviet polar stations in the Arctic. The contribution of atmospheric aerosol to the total extinction of solar radiation is estimated. A decreasing trend of atmospheric transparency due to the increase of aerosol contributing to the extinction of solar radiation during the last 25–30 years is noted. Estimates of the atmospheric aerosol influence on the incoming solar radiation indicate that a further systematic decrease of the transmission coefficient may lead to climatic changes of direct and total radiation in most polluted areas of the Arctic.     

Assessment of the Pacific decadal oscillation’s contribution to the occurrence of local torrential rainfall in north China

On 21–22 July 2012, torrential rains hit North China, with the daily precipitation record at Beijing station reaching 160.6 mm; this event is named the Beijing 7–21 case. This paper assesses the likelihood of the occurrence of local torrential rains, such as the Beijing 7–21 case, from the perspective of climate variability. In particular, the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is assessed. There were five extreme events, with daily precipitation records equal to or larger than 160.6 mm, at Beijing station during the period 1951–2012; all of these events happened during negative phases of the PDO. The present analysis indicates that precipitation events more extreme than the Beijing 7–21 case should happen more than once per decade during negative phases of the PDO, but only about once every four decades during positive PDO phases. The negative phase of the PDO is found to be associated with a much greater probability of daily records of southerly winds in North China during summer. Strong southerly summer monsoons are deemed favorable for increasing the occurrence of local extreme rainfall over North China.     

Climatology of thunderstorms in the Baltic countries, 1951–2000

This paper provides an overview of the thunderstorm climate of the Baltic countries during the period of 1951–2000. Our study area is in northeastern Europe and encompasses Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Visual thunderstorm observations at 59 weather stations were used as a data source. The mean annual number of thunderstorm days was 12–29.5. The seasonal cycle of thunderstorm hours with a daily step unexpectedly showed two maxima, whereas the monthly numbers of thunderstorm days had one clear mid-latitude specific peak between June and August. The diurnal cycle of thunderstorm hours showed a peak between 1400 and 1800 local time and a minimum between 0400 and 1000 hours local time. The average annual duration of thunderstorm events was 112 min. The average number of thunderstorm events per thunderstorm day was around 1.1–1.2. Our results showed that the thunderstorm climate of the Baltic countries generally resembles that of other mid-latitude study sites.     

Upwelling characteristics in the Peter the Great Bay in fall-winter season of 1999–2000

The intermediate water upwelling zone is discovered in November and December in the Peter the Great Bay (the Sea of Japan) on the basis of the data of the repeated hydrological section along 132° E. Taking account of the two-layer density field structure obtained from the observational data and applying the corresponding upwelling model [20], its main characteristics are computed. The upwelling zone width amounts to 6.2 km, the stratification destruction time is 69 h, and the vertical speed component is 4.3 × 10⁻² cm/s. The upwelling zone is clearly pronounced both at the temperature and salinity fields and at the biogenic element field.