气候变化对山东省潘庄灌区冬小麦生长的影响(英文)

Global climate change has significant impacts on agricultural production.Future climate change will bring important influences to the food security.The CERES-Wheat model was used to simulate the winter wheat growing process and production in Panzhuang Irrigation District(PID) during 2011-2040 under B2 climate scenario based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(SRES) assumptions with the result of RCMs(Regional Climate Models) projections by PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) system introduced to China from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.The CERES-Wheat model was calibrated and validated with independent field-measured growth data in 2002-2003 and 2007-2008 growing season under current climatic conditions at Yucheng Comprehensive Experimental Station(YCES),Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS).The results show that a significant impact of climate change on crop growth and yield was noted in the PID study area.Average temperature at Yucheng Station rose by 0.86℃ for 1961-2008 in general.Under the B2 climate scenario,average temperature rose by 0.55℃ for 2011-2040 compared with the baseline period(1998-2008),which drastically shortened the growth period of winter-wheat.However,as the temperature keep increasing after 2030,the top-weight and yield of the winter wheat will turn to decrease.The simulated evapotranspiration shows an increasing trend,although it is not very significant,during 2011-2040.Water use efficiency will increase during 2011-2031,but decrease during 2031-2040.The results indicate that climate change enhances agricultural production in the short-term,whereas continuous increase in temperature limits crop production in the long-term.     

气候变率影响下博茨瓦纳河流流量的时空变化

The fourth assessment report of the IPCC highlights that the global average surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.8 to 4.0℃ by the year 2100 compared to current climate. Given that climate is the most important driver of the hydrological cycle, the rise in temperature could cause changes in occurrence patterns of extreme hydrologic events like streamflow droughts. An increase in frequency and severity of these events could pose seri-ous challenges for sustainable management of water resources particular in arid regions. However, the understanding of water resources dynamics and the possible impacts of climate change on these dynamics is hindered by uncertainties in climate change models and com-plex hydrological responses of streams and catchments to climatic changes. Therefore ob-servational evidence of streamflow dynamics at the local scale could play a crucial role in addressing these uncertainties and achieving a fuller reconciliation between model-based scenarios and ground truth. This paper determines spatial and temporal changes in stream-flow volumes and their association with climatic factors based on the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and ANOVA to determine possible changes in streamflow over the years and their relation to climatic factors. Streamflow is generally stochastic highlighting the im-portance of factoring in temporal flow variability in water resources planning. There is no clear evidence that changes in climatic variables are related to streamflow behaviour.     

30年来呼伦贝尔地区草地植被对气候变化的响应(英文)

Global warming has led to significant vegetation changes especially in the past 20 years. Hulun Buir Grassland in Inner Mongolia, one of the world’s three prairies, is undergoing a process of prominent warming and drying. It is essential to investigate the effects of climatic change (temperature and precipitation) on vegetation dynamics for a better understanding of climatic change. NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), reflecting characteristics of plant growth, vegetation coverage and biomass, is used as an indicator to monitor vegetation changes. GIMMS NDVI from 1981 to 2006 and MODIS NDVI from 2000 to 2009 were adopted and integrated in this study to extract the time series characteristics of vegetation changes in Hulun Buir Grassland. The responses of vegetation coverage to climatic change on the yearly, seasonal and monthly scales were analyzed combined with temperature and precipitation data of seven meteorological sites. In the past 30 years, vegetation coverage was more correlated with climatic factors, and the correlations were dependent on the time scales. On an inter-annual scale, vegetation change was better correlated with precipitation, suggesting that rainfall was the main factor for driving vegetation changes. On a seasonal-interannual scale, correlations between vegetation coverage change and climatic factors showed that the sensitivity of vegetation growth to the aqueous and thermal condition changes was different in different seasons. The sensitivity of vegetation growth to temperature in summers was higher than in the other seasons, while its sensitivity to rainfall in both summers and autumns was higher, especially in summers. On a monthly-interannual scale, correlations between vegetation coverage change and climatic factors during growth seasons showed that the response of vegetation changes to temperature in both April and May was stronger. This indicates that the temperature effect occurs in the early stage of vegetation growth. Correlations between vegetation growth and precipitation of the month before the current month, were better from May to August, showing a hysteresis response of vegetation growth to rainfall. Grasses get green and begin to grow in April, and the impacts of temperature on grass growth are obvious. The increase of NDVI in April may be due to climatic warming that leads to an advanced growth season. In summary, relationships between monthly-interannual variations of vegetation coverage and climatic factors represent the temporal rhythm controls of temperature and precipitation on grass growth largely.     

Effects of fertilization on population density and productivity of herbaceous plants in desert steppe

In order to investigate the impacts of fertilization on population density and productivity on herbaceous plants in desert steppe, nitrogen （N）, phosphorus （P）, and N-P addition experiments were performed. Each fertilizer treatment included four addition levels, i.e., 0, 5, 10, and 20 g/m2. The results indicated that population density decreased as fertilization levels increased regardless of the sort of fertilizer. More specifically, total density as well as density ofArtemisia capillaris, Allium polyrhizum, and Enneapogon brachystachyus decreased significantly in 20 g/m2 treated plots, as compared with the control plots. Fertilization effects on aboveground and root biomasses were extremely similar to that found in population density; that is, both total aboveground biomass and aboveground biomasses for A. capillaris, A. polyrhizum, and E. brachystachyus were negatively correlated with increasing fertilization levels, with all determination coefficients （R2） greater than 0.80. Therefore, in the case of desert regions （annual precipitation 〈180 mm）, fertilization would inhibit population density and productivity of herbaceous plants.     

Effect of farmland expansion on drought over the past century in Songnen Plain,Northeast China

The effects of human activities on climate change are a significant area of research in the field of global environmental change. Land use and land cover change(LUCC) has a greater effect on climate than greenhouse gases, and the effect of farmland expansion on regional drought is particularly important. From the 1910 s to the 2010 s, cultivated land in Songnen Plain increased by 2.67 times, the area of cultivated land increased from 4.92×10~4 km~2 to 13.14×10~4 km~2, and its percentage of all land increased from 25% to 70%. This provides an opportunity to study the effects of the conversion of natural grassland to farmland on climate. In this study, the drought indices in Songnen Plain were evaluated from the 1910 s to the 2010 s, and the effect of farmland expansion on drought was investigated using statistical methods and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model based on UK's Climatic Research Unit data. The resulting dryness index, Palmer drought severity index, and standardized precipitation index values indicated a significant drying trend in the study area from 1981 to 2010. This trend can be attributed to increases in maximum temperature and diurnal temperature range, which increased the degree of drought. Based on statistical analysis and simulation, the maximum temperature, diurnal temperature range, and sensible heat flux increased during the growing season in Songnen Plain over the past 100 years, while the minimum temperature and latent heat flux decreased. The findings indicate that farmland expansion caused a drying trend in Songnen Plain during the study period.     

Impacts of climate change on winter wheat growth in Panzhuang Irrigation District, Shandong Province

Global climate change has significant impacts on agricultural production. Future climate change will bring important influences to the food security. The CERES-Wheat model was used to simulate the winter wheat growing process and production in Panzhuang Irrigation District (PID) during 2011–2040 under B2 climate scenario based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) assumptions with the result of RCMs (Regional Climate Models) projections by PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) system introduced to China from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. The CERES-Wheat model was calibrated and validated with independent field-measured growth data in 2002–2003 and 2007–2008 growing season under current climatic conditions at Yucheng Comprehensive Experimental Station (YCES), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). The results show that a significant impact of climate change on crop growth and yield was noted in the PID study area. Average temperature at Yucheng Station rose by 0.86℃ for 1961–2008 in general. Under the B2 climate scenario, average temperature rose by 0.55℃ for 2011–2040 compared with the baseline period (1998–2008), which drastically shortened the growth period of winter-wheat. However, as the temperature keep increasing after 2030, the top-weight and yield of the winter wheat will turn to decrease. The simulated evapotranspiration shows an increasing trend, although it is not very significant, during 2011–2040. Water use efficiency will increase during 2011–2031, but decrease during 2031–2040. The results indicate that climate change enhances agricultural production in the short-term, whereas continuous increase in temperature limits crop production in the long-term.     

青藏高原高寒草地地上生物量对气候变化的响应（英文）

Aboveground biomass in grasslands of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has displayed an overall increasing trend during 2003–2016, which is profoundly influenced by climate change. However, the responses of different biomes show large discrepancies, in both size and magnitude. By applying partial least squares regression, we calculated the correlation between peak aboveground biomass and mean monthly temperature and monthly total precipitation in the preceding 12 months for three different grassland types(alpine steppe, alpine meadow, and temperate steppe) on the central and eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The results showed that mean temperature in most preceding months was positively correlated with peak aboveground biomass of alpine meadow and alpine steppe, while mean temperature in the preceding October and February to June was significantly negatively correlated with peak aboveground biomass of temperate steppe. Precipitation in all months had a promoting effect on biomass of alpine meadow, but its correlations with biomass of alpine steppe and temperate steppe were inconsistent. It is worth noting that, in a warmer, wetter climate, peak aboveground biomass of alpine meadow would increase more than that of alpine steppe, while that of temperate steppe would decrease significantly, providing support for the hypothesis of conservative growth strategies by vegetation in stressed ecosystems.     

1971-2000年青藏高原气候变化趋势

Trends of annual and monthly temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspi- ration and aridity index were analyzed to understand climate change during the period 1971–2000 over the Tibetan Plateau which is one of the most special regions sensitive to global climate change. FAO56–Penmen–Monteith model was modified to calculate potential evapotranspiration which integrated many climatic elements including maximum and mini- mum temperatures, solar radiation, relative humidity and wind speed. Results indicate gen- erally warming trends of the annual averaged and monthly temperatures, increasing trends of precipitation except in April and September, decreasing trends of annual and monthly poten- tial evapotranspiration, and increasing aridity index except in September. It is not the isolated climatic elements that are important to moisture conditions, but their integrated and simulta- neous effect. Moreover, potential evapotranspiration often changes the effect of precipitation on moisture conditions. The climate trends suggest an important warm and humid tendency averaged over the southern plateau in annual period and in August. Moisture conditions would probably get drier at large area in the headwater region of the three rivers in annual average and months from April to November, and the northeast of the plateau from July to September. Complicated climatic trends over the Tibetan Plateau reveal that climatic factors have nonlinear relationships, and resulte in much uncertainty together with the scarcity of observation data. The results would enhance our understanding of the potential impact of climate change on environment in the Tibetan Plateau. Further research of the sensitivity and attribution of climate change to moisture conditions on the plateau is necessary.     

长江源区地表水资源对气候变化的响应及趋势预测(英文)

In this paper,variations of surface water flow and its climatic causes in China are analyzed using hydrological and meteorological observational data,as well as the impact data set(version 2.0) published by the National Climate Center in November 2009.The results indicate that surface water resources showed an increasing trend in the source region of the Yangtze River over the past 51 years,especially after 2004.The trend was very clearly shown,and there were quasi-periods of 9 years and 22 years,where the Tibetan Plateau heating field enhanced the effect,and the plateau monsoon entered a strong period.Precipitation notably increased,and glacier melt water increased due to climate change,all of which are the main climatic causes for increases in water resources in the source region.Based on global climate model prediction,in the SRESA1B climate change scenarios,water resources are likely to increase in this region for the next 20 years.     

Climate change on the southern slope of Mt. Qomolangma （Everest） Region in Nepal since 1971

Based on monthly mean, maximum, and minimum air temperature and monthly mean precipitation data from 10 meteorological stations on the southern slope of the Mt. Qomolangma region in Nepal between 1971 and 2009, the spatial and temporal characteristics of climatic change in this region were analyzed using climatic linear trend, Sen＇s Slope Estimates and Mann-Kendall Test analysis methods. This paper focuses only on the southern slope and attempts to compare the results with those from the northern slope to clarify the characteristics and trends of climatic change in the Mt. Qomolangma region. The results showed that： （1） between 1971 and 2009, the annual mean temperature in the study area was 20.0℃, the rising rate of annual mean temperature was 0.25℃/10a, and the temperature increases were highly influenced by the maximum temperature in this region. On the other hand, the temperature increases on the northern slope of Mt. Qomolangma region were highly influenced by the minimum temperature. In 1974 and 1992, the temperature rose noticeably in February and September in the southern region when the increment passed 0.9℃. （2） Precipitation had an asymmetric distribution; between 1971 and 2009, the annual precipitation was 1729.01 mm. In this region, precipitation showed an increasing trend of 4.27 mm/a, but this was not statistically significant. In addition, the increase in rainfall was mainly concentrated in the period from April to October, including the entire monsoon period （from June to September） when precipitation accounts for about 78.9% of the annual total. （3） The influence of altitude on climate warming was not clear in the southern region, whereas the trend of climate warming was obvious on the northern slope of Mt. Qomolangma. The annual mean precipitation in the southern region was much higher than that of the northern slope of the Mt. Qomolangma region. This shows the barrier effect of the Himalayas as a whole and Mt. Qomolangma in particular.     

气候变化对小麦生物量影响的概率预测和不确定性分析

气候变化对农业生产的影响和适应一直是学界关注的重点。但是,由于气候模式输出、排放情景、尺度转换、模型参数化等研究过程中存在的不确定性,往往导致研究结果也存在较大的不确定性。为减少研究结果的不确定性,本研究综合了IPCC 四个排放情景(A1FI、A2、B1、B2) 以及5 个全球气候模式(HadCM3, PCM, CGCM2, CSIRO2, ECHAM4) 的输出结果,基于英国CRU 气候中心的20 个未来情景数据库,生成全球平均温度升高1℃(GMT+1D)、2℃ (GMT+2D)、3℃ (GMT+3D) 下研究站点的气候日值中值情景数据,利用过程模型CERES-Wheat 和概率预测方法研究CO₂肥效作用和GMT+1D、GMT+2D、GMT+3D对我国小麦主产区小麦生物量的影响。研究结果表明:CO₂肥效作用可以补偿由于温度升高而造成的小麦生物量减产且补偿作用随着温度的升高而增加。当有CO₂肥效作用时,灌溉小麦和雨养小麦生物量均增加,且随着温度的升高生物量的增长程度增大,相同情景下,雨养小麦生物量的增高概率大于灌溉小麦。当不考虑CO₂肥效作用时,灌溉小麦和雨养小麦生物量均降低,且灌溉小麦生物量减产的概率大于雨养小麦减产概率。     

气候变化对甘肃定西、安徽合肥小麦生产影响研究

由于大气中温室气体的不断增加, 全球气候发生了巨大变化。据最新气候模式模拟研究表 明未来全球气候将发生更为剧烈的变化, 这必将对很多部门产生显著的影响特别是对气候变化 十分敏感的农业。尤其对于中国这样的人口大国, 农业作为社会最基本也是最重要生产部门之 一, 气候变化将对中国的农业生产带来巨大的影响。小麦是中国的第二大作物, 其中冬小麦占全 国小麦总产量近90%, 因此评价气候变化对中国小麦生产影响是十分必要的。为了分析在未来气 候变化情景下中国小麦生产可能遇到的风险, 以15 年ECMWF 再分析实验数据(1979~1993)作为 边界条件驱动PRECIS 区域气候模式模拟产生作物模型所需要的气候资料并输入CERES-Wheat 模型, 验证CERES-Wheat 模型与区域气候模式PRECIS 结合的模拟能力。在以上验证工作的基 础上, 将区域气候模式PRECIS 的模拟结果与作物模型CERES-Wheat 相连接, 同时考虑到CO2 对小麦的直接施肥作用, 模拟了两个小麦站点(定西和合肥)在IPCC SRES A2 和B2 情景下雨养 和灌溉小麦的变化趋势。得到如下结论: 无论是在A2 情景还是B2 情景, 定西和合肥的小麦产量 都会有所增加, 但增加的幅度相差很大。A2 情景的增产效应一般要大于B2 情景的增产效应, 灌 溉小麦比雨养小麦更加受益于气候变化, 冬小麦(合肥) 产量的增长幅度要大于春小麦(定西) 增 长幅度。CO2 对小麦生长的肥效作用十分明显, 产量增幅很大。以上结果说明未来气候变化可能 会对我国的小麦生产带来益处, 但由于未来气候情景模拟的不确定性以及CO2 肥效作用通常是 在作物过程中的水肥条件完全满足的情况下才充分体现, 这都给研究结果带来了不确定性, 但本 项研究为评价未来气候变化对中国小麦生产影响提供了一种全面的评价方法。     

气候变化对海河流域主要作物物候和产量影响简

基于海河流域30 个气象站点1960-2009年的实测资料,分析该流域1960年以来农业气象指标的变化趋势,并利用VIP模型模拟分析大气CO₂浓度增加、温度、降雨和日照时数变化对作物产量的影响。结果显示：冬季温度的显著上升使冬小麦种植北界在50年间向北移动大约70 km;在品种和灌溉条件不变的前提下,小麦产量平均每10年上升0.2%~3.4%,其中CO₂浓度增加、温度、降雨及日照时数变化对其产量的影响分别为11.0%、0.7%、-0.2%和-6.5%;大气CO₂浓度增加的产量正效应大于日照时数减少的负效应。气候变化使夏玉米产量呈下降趋势（0.6%~3.8%/10年）,其中大气CO₂浓度增加、温度、降雨及日照时数变化对其产量的影响分别为0.7%、-3.6%、-1.0%和-6.8%,温度上升和辐射下降是玉米产量下降的主要原因。研究结果可为气候变化影响的评估和适应性对策制定提供科学依据。     

CO2 seasonal variation and global change: Test global warming from another point of view

CO₂ and temperature records at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, and other observation stations show that the correlation between CO₂ and temperature is not significant. These stations are located away from big cities, and in various latitudes and hemispheres. But the correlation is significant in global mean data. Over the last five decades, CO₂ has grown at an accelerating rate with no corresponding rise in temperature in the stations. This discrepancy indicates that CO₂ probably is not the driving force of temperature change globally but only locally (mainly in big cities). We suggest that the Earth''s atmospheric concentration of CO₂ is too low to drive global temperature change. Our empirical perception of the global warming record is due to the urban heat island effect:temperature rises in areas with rising population density and rising industrial activity. This effect mainly occurs in the areas with high population and intense human activities, and is not representative of global warming. Regions far from cities, such as the Mauna Loa highland, show no evident warming trend. The global monthly mean temperature calculated by record data, widely used by academic researchers, shows R²=0.765, a high degree of correlation with CO₂. However, the R² shows much less significance (mean R²=0.024) if calculated by each record for 188 selected stations over the world. This test suggests that the inflated high correlation between CO₂ and temperature (mean R²=0.765-0.024=0.741) used in reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was very likely produced during data correction and processing. This untrue global monthly mean temperature has created a picture:human emission drives global warming.     

Effects of simulated storm sizes and nitrogen on three Chihuahuan Desert perennial herbs and a grass

Establishment and growth of three perennial herbs and a small tussock grass were studied in an experiment that provided simulated rainfall of 6 mm week⁻¹ or 25 mm once per month and nitrogen fertilization in combination with the different simulated rainfall regimes. Wild onion, Allium macropetalum, failed to establish in plots receiving 25 mm month⁻¹ simulated rainfall. The perennial composite, Bahia absinthifolia, occurred at higher densities in plots that were not irrigated but there were no differences in biomass in any of the irrigation or fertilization treatments. Desert holly, Perezia nana, failed to establish in nitrogen fertilized plots and developed higher abundance and biomass in plots receiving 25 mm month⁻¹. Nitrogen fertilization had either no effect or an adverse effect on the perennial herbs. The tussock grass, Dasychloa pulchella exhibited highest abundance and biomass with 6 mm week⁻¹ added water plus nitrogen. Since global climate change will affect both rain storm frequency and size and atmospheric nitrogen deposition, the results of this study are applicable to understanding vegetation responses climate change.     

基于CMIP5多模式集合资料的中国气温和降水预估及概率分析

选用国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）提供的30个全球大气-海洋耦合模式（AOGCMs）在典型浓度路径（RCPs）情景下气温和降水量的预估结果,采用扰动法,用站点观测资料作为气候背景场替代AOGCM模拟的气候平均,尝试校正气候预估结果的系统性偏差。通过集合方法,用概率的形式给出中国平均气温升高1 ℃,2 ℃和3 ℃以及降水量增加10%,20%和30%概率的空间分布,讨论了中国未来平均气温和降水量可能的变化。结果表明：经过扰动法处理后的气温和降水量预估集合保留了当前气候的局地信息。预估平均气温在中国均有上升,北方地区尤其是青藏高原地区变暖的程度大于南方地区,北方大部分地区平均气温升高的趋势为0.28 ℃/10a。在21世纪初,中国北方地区年平均气温升高1 ℃的可能性超过50%。到了21世纪末期,中国大部分地区平均气温升高2 ℃的可能性超过60%,新疆北部以及青藏高原南部地区气温升高3 ℃的可能性超过50%。预估中国降水量普遍增多,中国北方地区降水量增多的程度要明显大于江淮流域及其以南地区,尤其是西北地区降水量增多非常显著,降水量增多30%的可能性超过70%以上。     

CLIMATIC CHANGE,POPULATION GROWTH,AND THEIR EFFECTS ON GREAT LAKES WATER SUPPLIES*

Two scenarios of CO₂-induced climatic change and projections of population and consumptive use of water to the year 2035 are utilized in a climate impact assessment of future water resources in the Great Lakes basin. When expressed as a streamflow/population index, results indicate a sharp decline of this index. Future index values are projected to be similar to those presently recorded for the Colorado River basin.     

近2000a温度变化及全球变暖不确定性

近年来有关温室气体,特别是CO2浓度上升导致的全球气候变暖将引起灾难性后果的理论,已成为全球关注和讨论的重点.本研究通过分析和总结器测资料和最近2000 a来温度序列,得出如下观点和结论：1）全球变暖是客观存在的,但是全球升温的幅度存在不确定性;2）人类活动和自然因素共同影响着气候变暖,仅从自然因素方面考虑未来存在降温的可能,因此未来温度的变化趋势很难预测;3）过去2000 a来冷暖变化频繁交替,最近100 a来的升温速率是否是过去2000 a中最大的时期存在不确定性.因此,在得出明确结论之前,需要进一步加大研究力度,明确这些不确定性.     

Carbon emissions trends with optimal balanced economic growth of China and the USA and some abatement options for China

It is believed that the global CO2 emissions have to begin dropping in the near fu- ture to limit the temperature increase within 2 degrees by 2100. So it is of great concern to environmentalists and national decision-makers to know how the global or national CO2 emissions would trend. This paper presented an approach to project the future CO2 emissions from the perspective of optimal economic growth, and applied this model to the cases of China and the United States, whose CO2 emissions together contributed to more than 40% of the global emissions. The projection results under the balanced and optimal economic growth path reveal that the CO2 emissions will peak in 2029 for China and 2024 for the USA owing to their empirically implied pace of energy efficiency improvement. Moreover, some abatement options are analyzed for China, which indicate that 1） putting up the energy price will de- crease the emissions at a high cost; 2） enhancing the decline rate of energy intensity can significantly mitigate the emissions with a modest cost; and 3） the energy substitution policy of replacing carbon intensive energies with clean ones has considerable potential to alleviate emissions without compromising the economic development.