Modelling the concentration of atmospheric CO2 during the Younger Dryas climate event

 The Younger Dryas (YD, dated between 12.7–11.6 ky BP in the GRIP ice core, Central Greenland) is a distinct cold period in the North Atlantic region during the last deglaciation. A popular, but controversial hypothesis to explain the cooling is a reduction of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) and associated northward heat flux as triggered by glacial meltwater. Recently, a CH₄-based synchronization of GRIP δ¹⁸O and Byrd CO₂ records (West Antarctica) indicated that the concentration of atmospheric CO₂ (CO^atm ₂) rose steadily during the YD, suggesting a minor influence of the THC on CO^atm ₂ at that time. Here we show that the CO^atm ₂ change in a zonally averaged, circulation-biogeochemistry ocean model when THC is collapsed by freshwater flux anomaly is consistent with the Byrd record. Cooling in the North Atlantic has a small effect on CO^atm ₂ in this model, because it is spatially limited and compensated by far-field changes such as a warming in the Southern Ocean. The modelled Southern Ocean warming is in agreement with the anti-phase evolution of isotopic temperature records from GRIP (Northern Hemisphere) and from Byrd and Vostok (East Antarctica) during the YD. δ¹³C depletion and PO₄ enrichment are predicted at depth in the North Atlantic, but not in the Southern Ocean. This could explain a part of the controversy about the intensity of the THC during the YD. Potential weaknesses in our interpretation of the Byrd CO₂ record in terms of THC changes are discussed. Received: 27 May 1998 / Accepted: 5 November 1998     

Two climatic states and feedbacks on thermohaline circulation in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity

The McGill Paleoclimate Model-2 (MPM-2) is employed to study climate–thermohaline circulation (THC) interactions in a pre -industrial climate, with a special focus on the feedbacks on the THC from other climate system components. The MPM-2, a new version of the MPM, has an extended model domain from 90S to 90N, active winds and no oceanic heat and freshwater flux adjustments. In the MPM-2, there are mainly two stable modes for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) under the ‘present-day’ forcing (present-day solar forcing and the pre-industrial atmospheric CO₂ level of 280 ppm). The ‘on’ mode has an active North Atlantic deep water formation, while the ‘off’ mode has no such deep water formation. By comparing the ‘off’ mode climate state with its ‘on’ mode analogue, we find that there exist many large differences between the two climate states, which originate from large changes in the oceanic meridional heat transports. By suppressing or isolating each process associated with a continental ice sheet over North America, sea ice, the atmospheric hydrological cycle and vegetation, feedbacks from these components on the Atlantic MOC are investigated. Sensitivity studies investigating the role of varying continental ice growth and sea ice meridional transport in the resumption of the Atlantic MOC are also carried out. The results show that a fast ice sheet growth and an enhanced southward sea ice transport significantly favor the resumption of the Atlantic MOC in the MPM-2. In contrast to this, the feedback from the atmospheric hydrological cycle is a weak positive one. The vegetation-albedo feedback could enhance continental ice sheet growth and thus could also favor the resumption of the Atlantic MOC. However, before the shut-down of the Atlantic MOC, feedbacks from these components on the Atlantic MOC are very weak.     

Variability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation described by three-dimensional empirical orthogonal functions

We describe the use of bivariate three-dimensional empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) in characterising low frequency variability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) in the Hadley Centre global climate model, HadCM3. We find that the leading two modes are well correlated with an index of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) on decadal timescales, with the leading mode alone accounting for 54% of the decadal variance. Episodes of coherent oscillations in the sub-space of the leading EOFs are identified; these episodes are of great interest for the predictability of the THC, and could indicate the existence of different regimes of natural variability. The mechanism identified for the multi-decadal variability is an internal ocean mode, dominated by changes in convection in the Nordic Seas, which lead the changes in the MOC by a few years. Variations in salinity transports from the Arctic and from the North Atlantic are the main feedbacks which control the oscillation. This mode has a weak feedback onto the atmosphere and hence a surface climatic influence. Interestingly, some of these climate impacts lead the changes in the overturning. There are also similarities to observed multi-decadal climate variability.     

The role of the individual air-sea flux components in CO2-induced changes of the ocean's circulation and climate

 In this study we investigate the role of heat, freshwater and momentum fluxes in changing the oceanic climate and thermohaline circulation as a consequence of increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Two baseline integrations with a fully coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation model with either fixed or increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations have been performed. In a set of sensitivity experiments either freshwater (precipitation, evaporation and runoff from the continents) and/or momentum fluxes were no longer simulated, but prescribed according to one of the fully coupled baseline experiments. This approach gives a direct estimate of the contribution from the individual flux components. The direct effect of surface warming and the associated feedbacks in ocean circulation are the dominant processes in weakening the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in our model. The relative contribution of momentum and freshwater fluxes to the total response turned out to be less than 25%, each. Changes in atmospheric water vapour transport lead to enhanced freshwater input into middle and high latitudes, which weakens the overturning. A stronger export of freshwater from the Atlantic drainage basin to the Indian and Pacific ocean, on the other hand, intensifies the Atlantic overturning circulation. In total the modified freshwater fluxes slightly weaken the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. The contribution of the modified momentum fluxes has a similar magnitude, but enhances the formation of North Atlantic deep water. Salinity anomalies in the Atlantic as a consequence of greenhouse warming stem in almost equal parts from changes in net freshwater fluxes and from changes in ocean circulation caused by the surface warming due to atmospheric heat fluxes. Important effects of the momentum fluxes are a poleward shift of the front between Northern Hemisphere subtropical and subpolar gyres and a southward shift in the position of the Antarctic circumpolar current, with a clear signal in sea level. Received: 3 May 1999 / Accepted: 11 December 1999     

Long-term climate changes due to increased CO2 concentration in the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM3/LSG

 The long-term adjustment processes of atmosphere and ocean in response to gradually increased atmospheric CO₂ concentration have been analysed in two 850-year integrations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). In these experiments the CO₂ concentration has been increased to double and four times the initial concentration, respectively, and is kept fixed thereafter. Three characteristic time scales have been identified: a very fast response associated with processes dominated by the atmospheric adjustment, an intermediate time scale of a few decades connected with processes in the upper ocean, and adjustment processes with time scales of centuries and longer due to the inertia of the deep ocean. The latter in particular is responsible for a still ongoing adjustment of the atmosphere-ocean system at the end of the integrations after 850 years. After 60 years, at the time of CO₂ doubling, the global mean near-surface air temperature rises by 1.4 K. In spite of the constant CO₂ concentration during the following centuries the warming continues to 2.6 K after 850 years. The behaviour of the quadrupling run is similar: global mean near-surface air temperature increases by 3.8 K at the time of CO₂ quadrupling and by 4.8 K at the end of the simulation. The thermohaline circulation undergoes remarkable changes. Temporarily, the North Atlantic overturning circulation weakens by up to 30% in the CO₂ doubling experiment and up to 50% in the CO₂ quadrupling experiment. After reaching the minimum the North Atlantic overturning slowly recovers in both experiments. Received: 23 August 1999 / Accepted: 27 April 2000     

The impact of changes in atmospheric and land surface physics on the thermohaline circulation response to anthropogenic forcing in HadCM2 and HadCM3

We have undertaken a comparative study of the mechanisms which drive the response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) to a fourfold increase in CO₂ over 70 years with stabilisation thereafter in HadCM2 and HadCM3. In both models, the THC changes are driven by surface flux forcing, with advection (and diffusion in HadCM2) acting in the opposite sense to limit the circulation change. In both cases, heat fluxes are more important than those of freshwater. We find that different patterns of heat flux forcing in HadCM2 and HadCM3 are the prime determinants of the differing response in the two models. The increased northerly component to the near surface winds (associated with an increase in reflective low level cloud), leads to enhanced heat loss in the west-central North Atlantic, which in turn tends to steepen the steric gradient and strengthen the THC. By contrast, in HadCM3 the winds become more westerly rather than northerly, there is no dynamically-forced enhancement of surface heat loss, and the heat flux in the North Atlantic continues to be strongly positive, relative to the control, leading to a reduction in the meridional steric gradient, and a weaker overturning circulation. Differences in atmospheric response patterns appear to be caused by improvements to atmospheric and land surface physics, and suggest that the THC response in HadCM2 is less credible than in HadCM3.     

EMIC Intercomparison Project (EMIP–CO2): comparative analysis of EMIC simulations of climate, and of equilibrium and transient responses to atmospheric CO2 doubling

An intercomparison of eight EMICs (Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity) is carried out to investigate the variation and scatter in the results of simulating (1) the climate characteristics at the prescribed 280 ppm atmosphere CO₂ concentration, and (2) the equilibrium and transient responses to CO₂ doubling in the atmosphere. The results of the first part of this intercomparison suggest that EMICs are in reasonable agreement with the present-day observational data. The dispersion of the EMIC results by and large falls within the range of results of General Circulation Models (GCMs), which took part in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 1 (CMIP1). Probable reasons for the observed discrepancies among the EMIC simulations of climate characteristics are analysed. A scenario with gradual increase in CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere (1% per year compounded) during the first 70 years followed by a stabilisation at the 560 ppm level during a period longer than 1,500 years is chosen for the second part of this intercomparison. It appears that the EMIC results for the equilibrium and transient responses to CO₂ doubling are within the range of the corresponding results of GCMs, which participated in the atmosphere-slab ocean model intercomparison project and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 2 (CMIP2). In particular EMICs show similar temperature and precipitation changes with comparable magnitudes and scatter across the models as found in the GCMs. The largest scatter in the simulated response of precipitation to CO₂ change occurs in the subtropics. Significant differences also appear in the magnitude of sea ice cover reduction. Each of the EMICs participating in the intercomparison exhibits a reduction of the strength of the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic under CO₂ doubling, with the maximum decrease occurring between 100 and 300 years after the beginning of the transient experiment. After this transient reduction, whose minimum notably varies from model to model, the strength of the thermohaline circulation increases again in each model, slowly rising back to a new equilibrium.     

Simulated changes in vegetation distribution, land carbon storage, and atmospheric CO2 in response to a collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation

It is investigated how abrupt changes in the North Atlantic (NA) thermohaline circulation (THC) affect the terrestrial carbon cycle. The Lund–Potsdam–Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model is forced with climate perturbations from glacial freshwater experiments with the ECBILT-CLIO ocean–atmosphere–sea ice model. A reorganisation of the marine carbon cycle is not addressed. Modelled NA THC collapses and recovers after about a millennium in response to prescribed freshwater forcing. The initial cooling of several Kelvin over Eurasia causes a reduction of extant boreal and temperate forests and a decrease in carbon storage in high northern latitudes, whereas improved growing conditions and slower soil decomposition rates lead to enhanced storage in mid-latitudes. The magnitude and evolution of global terrestrial carbon storage in response to abrupt THC changes depends sensitively on the initial climate conditions. These were varied using results from time slice simulations with the Hadley Centre model HadSM3 for different periods over the past 21 kyr. Changes in terrestrial storage vary between −67 and +50 PgC for the range of experiments with different initial conditions. Simulated peak-to-peak differences in atmospheric CO₂ are 6 and 13 ppmv for glacial and late Holocene conditions. Simulated changes in δ¹³C are between 0.15 and 0.25‰. These simulated carbon storage anomalies during a NA THC collapse depend on their magnitude on the CO₂ fertilisation feedback mechanism. The CO₂ changes simulated for glacial conditions are compatible with available evidence from marine studies and the ice core CO₂ record. The latter shows multi-millennial CO₂ variations of up to 20 ppmv broadly in parallel with the Antarctic warm events A1 to A4 in the South and cooling in the North.     

An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation

This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO₂ concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO₂ emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION.     

Atmospheric water vapor flux,bifurcation of the thermohaline circulation,and climate change

Latitudinal heat transport in the ocean and atmosphere represents a fundamental process of the Earth's climate system. The ocean component of heat transport is effected by the thermohaline circulation. Changes in this circulation, and hence latitudinal heat transport, would have a significant effect on global climate. Paleoclimate evidence from the Greenland ice cores and deep sea sediment cores suggests that during much of glacial time the climate system oscillated between two different states. Bimodal equilibrium states of the thermohaline circulation have been demonstrated in climate models. We address the question of the role of the atmospheric hydrological cycle on the global thermohaline circulation and the feedback to the climate system through changes in the ocean's latitudinal heat transport, with a simple coupled ocean-atmosphere energy-salt balance model. Two components of the atmospheric hydrological cycle, i.e., latitudinal water vapor transport and the net flux of water vapor from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean appear to play separate roles. If the inter-basin transport is sufficiently large, small changes in water vapor transport over the North Atlantic can effect bifurcation or a rapid transition between two different equilibria in the global thermohaline circulation; maximum difference between the modes occurs in the North Atlantic. If the inter-basin transport is from the Pacific to the Atlantic and sufficiently large, latitudinal vapor transport in the North Pacific controls the bifurcations, with maximum changes occurring in the North Pacific. For intermediate values of inter-basin transport, no rapid transitions occur in either basin. In the regime with vapor flux from the Atlantic to the Pacific, the on mode has strong production of deep water in the North Atlantic and a large flux of heat to the atmosphere from the high latitude North Atlantic. The off mode has strong deep water production in the Southern Ocean and weak production in the North Pacific. Heat transport into the high latitude North Atlantic by the ocean is reduced to about 20% of the on mode value. For estimated values of water vapor transport for the present climate the model asserts that while water vapor transport from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean is sufficiently large to make the North Atlantic the dominant region for deep water production, latitudinal water vapor transport is sufficiently low that the thermohaline circulation appears stable, i.e., far from a bifurcation point. This conclusion is supported to some extent by the fact that the high latitude temperature of the atmosphere as recorded in the Greenland ice cores has changed little over the last 9000 years.     

Century-scale variability in a randomly forced,two-dimensional thermohaline ocean circulation model

The response of a two-dimensional thermohaline ocean circulation model to a random freshwater flux superimposed on the usual mixed boundary conditions for temperature and salinity is considered. It is shown that for a wide range of vertical and horizontal diffusivities and a box geometry that approximates the Atlantic Ocean, 200–300 yr period oscillations exist in the basic-state, interhemispheric meridional overturning circulation with deep convection in the north. These fluctuations can also be described in terms of propagating salinity anomalies which travel in the direction of the thermohaline flow. For large horizontal (K _h = 15 × 103 m²/s) and small vertical (K _v = 0.5 × 10^–4 m²/s) diffusivities, the random forcing also excites deca-millennial oscillations in the basic structure of the thermohaline circulation. In this case, the meridional circulation pattern slowly oscillates between three different stages: a large positive cell, with deep convection in the North Atlantic and upwelling in the south; a symmetric two-cell circulation, with deep convection in both polar regions and upwelling near the equator; and a large negative cell, with deep convection in the South Atlantic and upwelling in the north. Each state can persist for 0 (10 kyr).     

Multi-decadal thermohaline variability in an ocean–atmosphere general circulation model

A century scale integration of a near-global atmosphere–ocean model is used to study the multi-decadal variability of the thermohaline circulation (THC) in the Atlantic. The differences between the coupled and two supplementary ocean-only experiments suggest that a significant component of this variability is controlled by either a collective behavior of the ocean and the atmosphere, particularly in the form of air-sea heat exchange, or sub-monthly random noise present in the coupled system. Possible physical mechanisms giving rise to the mode of this THC variability are discussed. The SST anomaly associated with the THC variability resembles an interdecadal SST pattern extracted from observational data, as well as a pattern associated with the 50–60 year THC variability in the GFDL coupled model. In each case, a warming throughout the subpolar North Atlantic but concentrated along the Gulf Stream and its extension is indicated when the THC is strong. Concomitantly, surface air temperature has positive anomalies over the warmer ocean, with the strongest signal located downwind of the warmest SST anomalies and intruding into the western Eurasian Continent. In addition to the thermal response, there are also changes in the atmospheric flow pattern. More specifically, an anomalous northerly wind develops over the Labrador Sea when the THC is stronger than normal, suggesting a local primacy of the atmospheric forcing in the thermohaline perturbation structure.     

Reducing the risk of Atlantic thermohaline circulation collapse: sensitivity analysis of emissions corridors

We present emissions corridors for the 21^st century reducing the risk of collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) while considering expectations about the socio-economically acceptable pace of emissions reductions. Emissions corridors embrace the range of CO₂ emissions that are compatible with normatively defined policy goals or ‘guardrails’. They are calculated along the conceptual and methodological lines of the tolerable windows approach. We investigate the sensitivity of the emissions corridors to key uncertain physical quantities (i.e. climate sensitivity and North Atlantic hydrological sensitivity, emissions of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols) as well as to the guardrails. Results indicate a large dependency of the width of the emissions corridor on climate and hydrological sensitivity: for low values of the climate and/or hydrological sensitivity, the corridor boundaries are far from being transgressed by business-as-usual emissions scenarios for the 21^st century. In contrast, for high values of both quantities already low non-intervention scenarios leave the corridor in the early decades of this century. The width of the CO₂ emissions corridor is also affected by the emissions pathway of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols, but to a lesser extent. We further find that the choice of the policy goal strongly influences the shape of the emissions corridor. Pursuit of a more ambitious THC target, for instance, tightens the corridor considerably. More strict expectations concerning the socio-economically admissible pace of emissions reduction (expressed in terms of a maximum emissions reduction rate and a transition time towards a de-carbonizing economy) act in the same direction. This indicates that a trade-off between THC and socio-economic guardrails may be unavoidable in the case of very tight emissions corridors.     

Solar irradiance forcing of centennial climate variability during the Holocene

Centennial climate variability during the Holocene has been simulated in two 10,000 year experiments using the intermediate-complexity ECBilt model. ECBilt contains a dynamic atmosphere, a global 3-D ocean model and a thermodynamic sea-ice model. One experiment uses orbital forcing and solar irradiance forcing, which is based on the Stuiver et al. residual ¹⁴C record spliced into the Lean et al. reconstruction. The other experiment uses orbital forcing alone. A glacier model is coupled off-line to the climate model. A time scale analysis shows that the response in atmospheric parameters to the irradiance forcing can be characterised as the direct response of a system with a large thermal inertia. This is evident in parameters like surface air temperature, monsoon precipitation and glacier length, which show a stronger response for longer time scales. The oceanic response, on the other hand, is strongly modified by internal feedback processes. The solar irradiance forcing excites a (damped) mode of the thermohaline circulation (THC) in the North Atlantic Ocean, similar to the loop-oscillator modes associated with random-noise freshwater forcing. This results in a significant peak (at time scales 200–250 year) in the THC spectrum which is absent in the reference run. The THC response diminishes the sea surface temperature response at high latitudes, while it gives rise to a signal in the sea surface salinity. A comparison of the model results with observations shows a number of encouraging similarities.     

Estimates of anthropogenic CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> uptake in a global ocean model

A global ocean general circulation model (L30T63) is employed to study the uptake and distribution of anthropogenic CO₂ in the ocean. A subgrid-scale mixing scheme called GM90 is used in the model. There are two main GM90 parameters including isopycnal diffusivity and skew (thickness) diffusivity. Sensitivities of the ocean circulation and the redistribution of dissolved anthropogenic CO₂ to these two parameters are examined. Two runs estimate the global oceanic anthropogenic CO₂ uptake to be 1.64 and 1.73 Pg C yr^-1 for the 1990s, and that the global ocean contained 86.8 and 92.7 Pg C of anthropogenic CO₂ at the end of 1994, respectively. Both the total inventory and uptake from our model are smaller than the data-based estimates. In this presentation, the vertical distributions of anthropogenic CO₂ at three meridional sections are discussed and compared with the available data-based estimates. The inventory in the individual basins is also calculated. Use of large isopycnal diffusivity can generally improve the simulated results, including the exchange flux, the vertical distribution patterns, inventory, storage, etc. In terms of comparison of the vertical distributions and column inventory, we find that the total inventory in the Pacific Ocean obtained from our model is in good agreement with the data-based estimate, but a large difference exists in the Atlantic Ocean, particularly in the South Atlantic. The main reasons are weak vertical mixing and that our model generates small exchange fluxes of anthropogenic CO₂ in the Southern Ocean. Improvement in the simulation of the vertical transport and sea ice in the Southern Ocean is important in future work.     

Transient simulation of the last glacial inception. Part II: sensitivity and feedback analysis

The sensitivity of the last glacial-inception (around 115 kyr BP, 115,000 years before present) to different feedback mechanisms has been analysed by using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2. CLIMBER-2 includes dynamic modules of the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere and inland ice, the last of which was added recently by utilising the three-dimensonal polythermal ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS. We performed a set of transient experiments starting at the middle of the Eemiam interglacial and ran the model for 26,000 years with time-dependent orbital forcing and observed changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentration (CO₂ forcing). The role of vegetation and ocean feedback, CO₂ forcing, mineral dust, thermohaline circulation and orbital insolation were closely investigated. In our model, glacial inception, as a bifurcation in the climate system, appears in nearly all sensitivity runs including a run with constant atmospheric CO₂ concentration of 280 ppmv, a typical interglacial value, and simulations with prescribed present-day sea-surface temperatures or vegetation cover—although the rate of the growth of ice-sheets growth is smaller than in the case of the fully interactive model. Only if we run the fully interactive model with constant present-day insolation and apply present-day CO₂ forcing does no glacial inception appear at all. This implies that, within our model, the orbital forcing alone is sufficient to trigger the interglacial–glacial transition, while vegetation, ocean and atmospheric CO₂ concentration only provide additional, although important, positive feedbacks. In addition, we found that possible reorganisations of the thermohaline circulation influence the distribution of inland ice.     

The global response to Younger Dryas boundary conditions in an AGCM simulation

 Geological evidence points to a global Younger Dryas (YD) climatic oscillation during the last glacial/ present interglacial transition phase. A convincing mechanism to explain this global YD climatic oscillation is not yet available. Nevertheless, a profound understanding of the mechanism behind the YD climate would lead to a better understanding of climate variability. Therefore, the Hamburg atmospheric circulation model was used to perform four numerical experiments on the YD climate. The objective of this study is to improve the understanding of different forcings influencing climate during the last glacial/interglacial transition and to investigate to what extent the model response agrees with global geological evidence of YD climate change. The following boundary conditions were altered: sea surface conditions, ice sheets, insolation and atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Sea surface temperatures based on foraminiferal assemblages proved to produce insufficient winter cooling in the N Atlantic Ocean in two experiments. It is proposed that this discrepancy is caused by uncertainties in the reconstruction method of sea surface temperatures. Therefore, a model-derived set of Atlantic surface ocean conditions was prescribed in a subsequent simulation. However, the latter set represented an Atlantic Ocean without a thermohaline circulation, which is not in agreement with evidence from ocean cores. The global response to the boundary conditions was analysed using three variables, namely surface temperature, zonal wind speed and precipitation. The statistical significance of the changes was tested with a two-tailed t-test. Moreover, the significant responses to cooled oceans were compared with geological evidence of a YD oscillation. This comparison revealed a good match in Europe, Greenland, Atlantic Canada and the N Pacific region, explaining the YD oscillation in these regions as a response to cooled N Atlantic and N Pacific Oceans. However, the results leave the YD climate in other regions completely unexplained. This reflects either an insufficient set of boundary conditions or the important role played by feedbacks within the coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice system. These feedbacks are poorly represented in the used atmospheric model, since ice sheets and the ocean surface conditions have to be prescribed. Received: 30 July 1996 / Accepted: 12 February 1997     

温盐环流与全球增暖的数值模拟 (一)纬向平均温盐环流的模拟

本文是用简单海一气耦合模型模拟温盐环流在全球增暖事件中作用的研究工作的第一部分。为了建立一个简单海一气耦合模型，我们首先根据Ｗｒｉｇｈｔ和Ｓｔｏｋｅｒ等人的设计复制出一个包括大西洋、太平洋和南大洋在内的二维温盐环流模式，从等温、等盐和无运动的初始状态出发，在给定的年平均海表强迫下将模式积分了４０００年，模拟出了和原作相似的温盐环流。对模拟结果的分析表明，相对于北太平洋而言，北大西洋北部的高盐、低温特点（后者是由两大洋在地理上的差别决定的）是形成当代温盐环流的主要原因；从与温盐环流相联系的海表热通量来看，北大西洋北部是向大气提供热量的主要源地；模式温盐环流对于海表盐度通量的敏感性试验的结果表明，对于纬圈平均的二维模式而言，要想模拟出合理的温盐环流就必须人为地提高北大西洋北部的海表盐度，文章分析了这种作法的物理根据；模式中的对流过程对于温盐环流的维持是至关重要的，对比有无季节循环的试验结果可以看出，虽然温度场的明显的季节变化只出现在模式的最上面两层，但由于引进季节循环后冬季高纬海洋的对流活动加强，后者直接影响到温盐环流，使更多的深海热量上传并向大气释放。这是使海洋温跃层得以保持合理．厚度的一个重要原因。     

卑尔根气候模式中大西洋热盐环流年代际与年际变率的气候影响

利用一个全球海气耦合模式--卑尔根气候模式的积分结果,揭示了与大西洋热盐环流(THC)年代际和年际振荡相对应的气候异常型.年代际振荡发生在全海盆尺度,伴有亚速尔高压的增强、冰岛低压的加深;年际振荡发生在局地尺度,伴有亚速尔高压的减弱.这两种海平面气压异常型都反映了北大西洋涛动(NAO)活动中心的强度变化,两种变率型对应的拉布拉多海对流活动都加剧.但伴随局地尺度的THC调整,伊尔明格海的对流活动减弱.蒸发异常对拉布拉多海表层盐度异常的影响较为显著.分析表明,局地尺度的THC振荡主要是对大气强迫的被动响应,而海盆尺度THC振荡的实质是反映整个输送带的强度变化,其气候意义要大于THC的局地振荡.     

Effects of atmospheric dynamics and ocean resolution on bi-stability of the thermohaline circulation examined using the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system modelling (GENIE) framework

We have used the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system modelling (GENIE) framework to undertake a systematic search for bi-stability of the ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) for different surface grids and resolutions of 3-D ocean (GOLDSTEIN) under a 3-D dynamical atmosphere model (IGCM). A total of 407,000 years were simulated over a three month period using Grid computing. We find bi-stability of the THC despite significant, quasi-periodic variability in its strength driven by variability in the dynamical atmosphere. The position and width of the hysteresis loop depends on the choice of surface grid (longitude-latitude or equal area), but is less sensitive to changes in ocean resolution. For the same ocean resolution, the region of bi-stability is broader with the IGCM than with a simple energy-moisture balance atmosphere model (EMBM). Feedbacks involving both ocean and atmospheric dynamics are found to promote THC bi-stability. THC switch-off leads to increased import of freshwater at the southern boundary of the Atlantic associated with meridional overturning circulation. This is counteracted by decreased freshwater import associated with gyre and diffusive transports. However, these are localised such that the density gradient between North and South is reduced tending to maintain the THC off state. THC switch-off can also generate net atmospheric freshwater input to the Atlantic that tends to maintain the off state. The ocean feedbacks are present in all resolutions, across most of the bi-stable region, whereas the atmosphere feedback is strongest in the longitude–latitude grid and around the transition where the THC off state is disappearing. Here the net oceanic freshwater import due to the overturning mode weakens, promoting THC switch-on, but the atmosphere counteracts this by increasing net freshwater input. This increases the extent of THC bi-stability in this version of the model. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.