Study of the ice conditions in the Gulf of Ob

The results of theoretical studies of fracture lines in the ice floes of the Gulf of Ob as a function of the coefficient of internal sliding are presented in this paper. An estimate of the fractal dimensions of the emerging topological structures and the results of the calculation of stresses in the ice cover of the Gulf of Ob are presented as functions of different directions of external forcing caused by the joint action of winds and currents on the ice. The geographical locations of the zones of possible loads are shown, together with the estimates of the hummock sizes in the zones of the maximal compression of the ice floes in the Gulf of Ob.     

溢油污染的渤海海冰反射光谱特征实测研究

Oil spilled on the sea ice surface in the Bohai Sea of China is studied through the field measurements of the reflectance of a simulated sea ice-oil film mixed pixel. The reflection characteristics of sea ice and oil film are also analyzed. It is found that the mixed pixel of sea ice and oil film is a linear mixed pixel. The means of extracting sea ice pixels containing oil film is presented using a double-band ratio oil-film sea-ice index(DROSI) and a normalized difference oil-film sea-ice index(NDOSI) through the analysis of the reflectance curves of the sea iceoil film pixel for different ratios of oil film. The area proportion of the oil film in the sea ice-oil film pixel can be accurately estimated by the average reflectance of the band of 1 610–1 630 nm, and the volume of the spilled oil can be further estimated. The method of the sea ice-oil film pixel extraction and the models to estimate the proportion of oil film area in the sea ice-oil film pixel can be applied to the oil spill monitoring of the ice-covered area in the Bohai Sea using multispectral or hyperspectral remote sensing images in the shortwave infrared band(1 500–1 780 nm).     

海上溢油应急预报业务系统介绍

介绍了国家海洋环境预报中心正在研制开发的海上溢油应急预报业务系统的结构、流程、功能和溢油模式。应用该系统对渤海和黄海的几次溢油事件进行了预报试验,试验结果表明该系统能在一个小时内完成渤海三维模拟预报、中国海二维模拟预报,并动态显示溢油分布范围、油膜面积、位置、溢油的抵岸时间、地点、油量、影响范围、沉降海底的位置、海上残油量等信息。     

Wave height forecasting in Dayyer, the Persian Gulf

Forecasting of wave parameters is necessary for many marine and coastal operations. Different forecasting methodologies have been developed using the wind and wave characteristics. In this paper, artificial neural network (ANN) as a robust data learning method is used to forecast the wave height for the next 3, 6, 12 and 24 h in the Persian Gulf. To determine the effective parameters, different models with various combinations of input parameters were considered. Parameters such as wind speed, direction and wave height of the previous 3 h, were found to be the best inputs. Furthermore, using the difference between wave and wind directions showed better performance. The results also indicated that if only the wind parameters are used as model inputs the accuracy of the forecasting increases as the time horizon increases up to 6 h. This can be due to the lower influence of previous wave heights on larger lead time forecasting and the existing lag between the wind and wave growth. It was also found that in short lead times, the forecasted wave heights primarily depend on the previous wave heights, while in larger lead times there is a greater dependence on previous wind speeds.     

Blocking prediction in an ensemble forecasting system

The predictability of the atmospheric blocking phenomenon is investigated using the output of the high-resolution ensemble prediction system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
The output from the model is analysed using an objective blocking index. This is compared with the theory of Charney and DeVore that blocking is a large-scale non-linear phenomenon. A consequence of the non-linearity is that in some cases multiple quasi-stationary atmospheric states can exist for the same set of boundary conditions.
It is found that the model in general produces too few blocks. Good agreement is found between the models lacking ability to predict blocking frequency and the systematic errors of 500-hPa geopotential height. It is found that there exists a limit, in the middle of the medium range, beyond which forecasts of blocking onset should be considered as probabilistic rather than dynamical. Inspection of individual blocking events adds new support to the idea that atmospheric blocking can be explained using the Charney–DeVore model.     

A physical approach for the observation of oil spills in SAR images

In this paper, a physical approach to support oil spills observation over synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images is presented. Electromagnetic model is based on an enhanced damping model that takes into account oil viscoelastic properties and wind speed. As a matter of fact, a multisensor approach is considered and a constant false alarm rate (CFAR) filter is used to minimize speckle effect. A set of experiments is presented and discussed. They show that oil spill processing is effective over single-look SAR images using mean input data.     

Three-dimensional numerical simulation for transport of oil spills in seas

This study extends previous two-dimensional research [Wang, S.D., Shen, Y.M., Zheng, Y.H., 2005. Two-dimensional numerical simulation for transport and fate of oil spills in seas. Ocean Engineering 32, 1556–1571] to three dimensions in order to investigate the vertical dispersion/motion of the spilled oil slick, which is a more realistic model of the motion of the spilled oil. To this end, a three-dimensional (3-D) model, based on the particle approach, is developed for simulating oil spill transport and fate in seas. The amount of oil released at sea is distributed among a large number of particles tracked individually. These particles are driven by a combination of water current, wave- and wind-induced speed and move in a 3-D space. Horizontal and vertical diffusion are taken into account using a random walk technique. The model simulates the most significant processes which affect the motion of oil particles, such as advection, surface spreading, evaporation, dissolution, emulsification, turbulent diffusion, the interaction of the oil particles with the shoreline, sedimentation and the temporal variations of oil viscosity, density and surface tension. In addition, the processes of hydrolysis, photo-oxidation and biodegradation are also considered in this model. The model has been applied to simulate the oil spill accident in the Bohai Sea.     

海洋溢油生态损害简易评估方法研究

海洋溢油事故多以小型溢油为主,采用简易评估方法对小型溢油事故生态损害快速、高效的评估,对及时进行海洋生态损害赔偿、补偿和修复具有重要意义.通过对溢油生态损害概念及补偿适用范围的分析,明确了简易评估法的适用范围,提出了一些衡量简易评估方法有效性的指标标准,并分别对华盛顿州“索赔公式法”、佛罗里达州“直接计算法”和溢油生态损害快速预评估模式3种典型的简易生态损害评估方法进行分析比较.为了使简易评估法在实践中发挥更好的作用,提出应在溢油专项基金的建立,预警系统及应急体系的建立和完善,损害评估方法的改进和发展,基础数据库的建设、损害评估信息系统功能完善5个方面加强建设.     

The influence of Stokes drift on oil spills: Sanchi oil spill case

Spilled oil floats and travels across the water’s surface under the influence of wind, currents, and wave action. Wave-induced Stokes drift is an important physical process that can affect surface water particles but that is currently absent from oil spill analyses. In this study, two methods are applied to determine the velocity of Stokes drift, the first calculates velocity from the wind-related formula based upon a one-dimensional frequency spectrum, while the second determines velocity directly from the wave model that was based on a two-dimensional spectrum. The experimental results of numerous models indicated that: (1) oil simulations that include the influence of Stokes drift are more accurate than that those do not; (2) for medium and long-term simulations longer than two days or more, Stokes drift is a significant factor that should not be ignored, and its magnitude can reach about 2% of the wind speed; (3) the velocity of Stokes drift is related to the wind but is not linear. Therefore, Stokes drift cannot simply be replaced or substituted by simply increasing the wind drift factor, which can cause errors in oil spill projections; (4) the Stokes drift velocity obtained from the two-dimensional wave spectrum makes the oil spill simulation more accurate.     

同化技术在渤海溢油应急预报系统中的应用

溢油应急预报对溢油事故现场处理具有重要指导意义。国内外已开展大量溢油数值预报技术研究,但由于各类误差的引入(尤其风和流数值预报误差的引入)以及模型本身的不完善等各种原因导致溢油数值预报无法满足日益提高的溢油预报精度需求。随着现场观测技术和监测水平的提高,如何充分利用实时观测数据提高业务化溢油应急预报精度,并满足应急预报迅速快捷的要求,成为目前业务化溢油应急预报的首要问题。国家海洋环境预报中心于2008年实现了渤海溢油业务化预报系统的建立和业务化应用,本文针对当前渤海溢油业务化应急预报中存在的现实问题,利用已有渤海海上5个石油平台从2010年1月至2011年2月的风场观测数据,初步开展最优插值方法(optimal interpolation assimilation method,OI)同化技术在国家海洋环境预报中心渤海溢油应急预报系统风场订正的应用研究。本文采用交错订正方法,确定了OI同化技术中相关尺度因子的选取,从而实现在这5个观测站地理分布情况下,OI同化技术应用中参数的最优化,之后在理想实验和实际案例的应用中,该同化方法明显提高渤海溢油预报精度。本文为如何进一步利用同化方法迅速快捷地实现溢油应急预报精度的提高提供了一定研究基础。     

Modeling the evolution of snow, snow ice and ice in the Baltic Sea

A numerical 1‐dimensional fine grid sea ice thermodynamic model is constructed accounting specially for: (1) slush formation via flooding and percolation of rain‐ and snow meltwater, (2) the consequent snow ice formation via slush freezing, and (3) the effects of snow compaction on heat diffusion in snow cover. The model simulations from ice winter period 1979–90 are viewed against corresponding observations at the Kemi fast ice station (65 °39.8' N, 24° 31.4' E). The 11‐year averaged model results show good overall consistency with corresponding total ice thickness observations. The model slightly overestimates the snow ice thickness and underestimates the snow thickness in February and March, which is mainly addressed to the model assumption of isostatic balance (i.e., slush formation via flooding), which was probably not fully satisfied at the coastal Kemi fast ice station. Supposing that this assumption is nevertheless generally valid away from the very coastal fast ice zone, an estimate for sea ice sensitivity to changes in winter precipitation rate is produced. Increased precipitation leads to an increase only in snow ice thickness with little change in total ice thickness, while a reduction in precipitation of more than {213}50% causes a significant increase in total ice thickness. The difference in modeled total ice thickness for the case of artificially neglecting snow ice physics is about 25%, which indicates the importance of including snow ice physics in a sea ice model dealing with the seasonal sea ice zone.     

海冰重叠动力条件分析

由于重叠冰厚度较大,给冰区海洋运输以及海洋生产作业等带来较大影响,为了得到科学客观的重叠冰厚度,需要对重叠冰的形成条件进行深入研究。利用理论分析和数值模拟方法,分析了波浪、风和流对渤海海冰重叠的影响。通过理论计算分析发现,波浪是导致海冰断裂的主要因素;采用离散元方法对海冰重叠过程进行了数值模拟,模拟结果表明海冰在外界动力作用下,海冰初始发生屈曲变形断裂,随后产生重叠。综合分析表明,海冰在同时具备波浪的垂向波动作用以及风或流水平作用力下,冰层比较容易发生重叠,波浪对海冰重叠的作用不可忽略,海冰的重叠长度取决于风和流作用的大小,其作用力越大,重叠长度越大。     

辽东湾近岸海域油污染生态风险评价研究

以2014–2015年海洋调查数据为基础,Arc GIS软件为平台,通过选取致灾因子危险性、承灾体脆弱性相关影响因子,基于灾害理论和层次分析法构建了辽东湾近岸海域油污染生态风险评价指标体系、评价模型及评价标准,将致灾因子危险性等级和承灾体脆弱性等级进行叠加,从而实现对研究海域油污染生态风险进行综合评价,并对该海域溢油风险可能导致的环境影响进行了系统分析、诊断和综合评价。结果表明:辽东湾近岸海域风险处于较高风险,应加强对环境敏感区域的保护,并完善环境监测体系。本文同时为重要湿地生态敏感区合理配置溢油应急资源和实施风险决策提供技术支撑,也为目前事故后的危机管理到预防性风险管理的转变提供理论依据。     

波浪作用下海上溢油潜浮于水的机理研究进展

从单油滴角度对波浪作用下漂浮溢油的入水过程(夹带、油滴的形成),演变过程(油滴的变形、破碎和聚并)和上浮过程的研究现状进行综述,介绍了溢油及相关领域的研究手段和实验方法,总结了海上溢油潜浮于水的行为机理及分布规律,并基于实验室和溢油现场的研究成果提出进一步需要探究的问题,为海上溢油污染的应急决策、追踪预测和损害评估等方面提供思路和借鉴。     

基于油气平台的海冰雷达监测图像处理及冰速测量

对海冰的运动规律进行精确、连续和长周期的实时监测有助于海冰热力学和动力学的研究,也可保障冰区生产活动的安全进行。针对辽东湾海冰的运动特点和工程需求,在JZ20-2油气平台上建立了海冰雷达监测系统。采用数字图像处理技术对海冰雷达监测图像进行了分析和软件开发,可对海冰密集度、速度和冰块面积等海冰参数进行提取。采用该海冰雷达监测系统和数字图像处理软件,在2011-2012年冬季对该海域的海冰运动规律进行了全冰期的连续监测,在此基础上重点对海冰速度的雷达图像监测结果进行了分析,讨论了海冰速度场分布以及连续48 h的变化过程。以上结果为海冰的生消运移规律研究和油气作业区的海冰管理工作提供了可靠的现场监测数据。对海冰雷达现场监测及数字图像处理中的问题及改进方法进行了讨论。     

A natural limit to the containment and removal of oil spills at sea

A simple statistical model is developed to investigate the effect of turbulence in removing oil from the sea surface. The relationship and importance of vertical turbulent transport to oil spill containment and clean-up operations is emphasized. In its final form, the model allows a tentative conclusion to be made concerning the probable succedd of such operations, with wind speed and oil type being the governing parameters.     

Major challenges of offshore platforms design for shallow water oil and gas field in moderate ice conditions

Offshore engineers and scientists face fascinating economical and technical challenges in designing offshore platforms for shallow water oil and gas fields in moderate ice conditions. Petroleum production systems in these ice-infested areas such as the Bohai Bay of China, Cook Inlet, Barent Sea, and Caspian Sea must be designed to accommodate the harsh environmental conditions, among which the first-year sea ice is one of the major design consideration. Extreme ice loads and ice-induced vibrations still remain an area of uncertainty in offshore platforms. This paper demonstrates the main technical aspects on the use of jackets in the Bohai Bay, with particular focus on ice loads and the failure modes of slender ice-resistant structures, which are the two key issues in design considerations. A design proposal and some considerations for economical ice-resistant structures for safe development in the cold region are also conceptually discussed.     

Research report—A geographical information system for oil spills sensitivity mapping in the Shetland Islands (United Kingdom)

Geographical Information Systems (GIS) have been making important contributions to environmental monitoring and management. This paper discusses their use in oil spill sensitivity mapping in the Brent System Pipeline Nearshore Section in the Shetland Islands. The study demonstrates the efficiency and effectiveness of the GIS approach in determining the critical areas that need to be protected in the event of an oil spill. It concludes with a discussion on the future development in this field.