Ecological footprint and major driving forces in West Jilin Province,Northeast China

The environmental impact caused by local people (ecological footprint of consumption, EFc) and the actual environmental impact that the ecosystem burdens (ecological footprint of production, EFp) in West Jilin Province, Northeast China from 1986 to 2006 were evaluated by using ecological footprint (EF) method. And the major driving forces of EFc and EFp were analyzed by STIRPAT model. Both EFc and EFp showed increasing trends in 1986-2006, accompanied by decreasing ecological deficits but expanding ecologic...     

ANALYSIS AND MODELING ON CULTIVATED LAND CONVERSION —— Case Study of Hebei Province

1INTRODUCTION With the acceleration of the urbanization and industrial- ization of China, it is inevitable that cultivated land con- vertsto built-up land for industrial, commercial and resi- dential uses. During 1986- 2002 around 168.4×103ha cultivated land had converted to non-agriculture use an- nually (QU et al., 2005). Though the urbanization rate had increased from 17% in the late 1970s to 41% in 2004, China has a long way to go compared with the de- veloped countries whose urbani…     

Spatial pattern and influencing factor of county-level industrial development in Liaoning Province of China

County-level industrial development and structure upgrade is one of the most important issues of revitalizing old industrial base of China. After the cluster analysis on GDP per capita and GDP per area of each county in Liaoning Province, this paper finds the similarity of population size, land use intensity, and economic development of each county. Location quotient reflects the specialization intensity of industries in each county, and it also reflects the spatial differences of county-level industrial development. Economic development level is higher in the southeast than in the northwest of Liaoning, and the industry driving effect on county-level economy is apparent. The main influencing factors include location, industrial foundation and economic system reform, capital input level, knowledge and technology dissemination, conditions of domestic and overseas markets, population and labor force transfer. Industrialization is an important approach to urbanization for the counties in Liaoning Province. The proportion of agriculture is much higher in the northwest than in the southeast of Liaoning, so it will be take longer time for counties in the northwest of Liaoning to make industrialization, urbanization and modernization.     

区域人口迁移时空溢出效应与动力机制分析

区域人口迁移流的规模不仅取决于迁出地与目的地的“双边”要素,也与前期迁移流和周边迁移流息息相关。传统重力模型揭示了区域人口迁移过程的“推-拉”机制,但受制于对时空维度的忽视,无法有效表达迁移流之间的时空依赖关系,因而难以度量区域要素变化对迁移流产生的时空溢出效应。本文引入多种形式的时空依赖结构,构建迁移流时空重力模型,并采用贝叶斯马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛（MCMC）方法进行估计。在此基础上,结合时空效应框架量化区域要素对迁移流的影响,定量分析人口迁移过程的时空溢出效应与动力机制。本文以1985-2015年中国省际人口迁移为例,通过与非空间的动态重力模型估计结果比较,初步表明时间依赖、空间依赖以及时空扩散依赖在区域人口迁移过程中不容忽视;时空维度上,区域要素变化在初期对迁移网络的溢出效应超过对该区域迁移流的直接影响;逐渐衰减的时空溢出效应维持了区域人口迁移规模发展的相对稳定,与动态重力模型估计结果形成了鲜明对比。区域人口规模、人均GDP水平及其时空溢出效应共同驱动中国省际人口迁移系统的发展。耦合时空维度依赖关系的时空重力模型能更好地理解区域人口迁移过程的演化特征,为促进区域人口均衡发展提供科学的决策依据。     

Urban expansion and its influencing factors in Natural Wetland Distribution Area in Fuzhou City, China

This paper principally focuses on land use dynamics,urban expansion and underlying driving forces in the Natural Wetland Distribution Area(NWDA)of Fuzhou City in the southeastern China.Based on time series Landsat TM/ETM+imageries and historical data,relationships between urban land expansion and its influencing factors from 1989 to 2009 were analyzed by using an integrated approach of remote sensing(RS)and geographic information system(GIS)techniques.The results showed that built-up land increased from 151.16 km2in 1989 to 383.76 km 2in 2009. Approximately 64.25%of the newly emerging built-up land was converted from cropland(29.47%),forest and shrub (25.78%),water(3.73%),wetland(4.61%),and bare land(0.66%)during 1989 and 2009.With a remarkable decrease in cropland,the proportion of non-agricultural population increased by 23.6%.Moreover,rapid development of infrastructures,facilities,industrial parks,and urban and rural settlements along the Minjiang River resulted in the eastward and southward expansion of built-up land.Additionally,the growth pattern of built-up land in the NWDA is highly correlated with socio-economic factors,including the gross domestic product(GDP),GDP per capita,and structure of industry.As a result,the observed environmental degradation such as loss of cropland and wetland due to heavy pressure of rapid urbanization have greatly impaired the carrying capacity of city.Thus,in addition to scientific and rational policies towards minimizing the adverse effects of urbanization,coordination between the administrative agencies should be urgently strengthened to balance the conflicts between urban development and ecological conservation to make sure the sustainable land use.     

Human driving forces: Analysis of rocky desertification in karst region in Guanling County,Guizhou Province

Karst rocky desertification is one of the major ecological and environmental problems that threaten the sustainable development of southwestern China. It is caused by irrational and intensive land-use patterns in karst geo-ecological environment. Therefore, it is vital to identify how human forces work on this degraded environment. Based on the soil erosion information in 2000 and remote sensing images of Guanling County collected in 2000 and 2007, four grades of karst rocky desertification data in 14 villages of Guanling County were extracted. Impacts of population, affluence, and other human forces on karst rocky desertification were analyzed using STIRPAT model. The results show that: 1) Factors of population and affluence had strong influence on karst rocky desertification. In the STIRPAT model analysis, the population and affluence coefficients were positive, indicating that the increase in population and affluence would lead to more serious desertification. 2) Factors of farmer correlated with karst rocky desertification negatively, especially the way of viewing the relationship between people and nature, and the level of knowledge about rocky desertification. Government behavior was not a significant factor in this analysis. 3) The findings provide evidence that STIRPAT model can be used to analyze the relationship between human driving forces and rocky desertification.     

Change of Ecological Footprint and Analysis of Ecological Sustainability —— Taking Zhangjiakou City as an Example

This paper researches the ecological sustainability of Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, China, using the ecological footprint model. According to the study we find that Zhangjiakou City was in the situation of ecological deficit from 1990 to 2000 and the deficit had the enlarging tendency. In 1990 the per capita ecological footprint was 0.964 and the per capita ecological capacity was 0.518, thus it can be calculated that the per capita ecological deficit was –0.446. However in 2000, the per capita ecological footprint increased to 1.068, at the same time the per capita eco- logical capacity decreased to 0.471, then the per capita ecological deficit in 2000 was –0.597. Furthermore, this paper studies the ecological sustainability of the city from the changes of the ecological footprint of per 10,000 yuan GDP and the productivity of ecological system. Finally the authors point out the shortage of the model and the way to improve it.     

ANALYSIS OF DRIVING FORCES ON THE CHANGE OF HISTORICAL FARMLAND USE IN SHANDONG PROVINCE DURING THE QING DYNASTY (1644-1911)

1INTRODUCTIONTheIGBP-IHDP(InternationalGeosphere-BiosphereProgramme,andInternationalHumanDimensionPro-gramme)jointproject—LUCC(landuse/coverchange)isaninterdisciplinaryprogramdesignedtoimprovetheunderstandingofthedynamicsofland-useandland-coverchangeasinputstoandconsequencesofglobalenvironmentalchangeandsustainabledevelopment(CHARLOTTE,2002).Inparticularthedifferentbio-geochemicalmodeling(e.g.theglobalcarboncycle)ac-tivitiesandcomparativestudies,suchasthoseconduct-edbyIGBP-G…     

DYNAMICS OF SANDY DESERTIFICATION AND ITS DRIVING FORCES IN WESTERN JILIN PROVINCE

By establishing the interpreting elements, and applying supervised classification, the sandy desertification was interpreted and the desertified land areas of the counties in the western Jilin Province in 1986 and in 2000 were obtained. Taking Tongyu and Qian‘an as examples, the natural driving forces and man-made driving forces were analyzed. The paper comes the conclusions that the material sources and the warming and dry climate are the internal causes of potential land descrtification: the irrational human activities, such as destroying forest and reclaiming the grassland, are the external causes of potential land desertification; while more rational human activities, such as planting trees and restoring grassland can reverse the land desertification. Furthermore, the countermeasures and suggestions for the development of agriculture and animal husbandry in the western Jilin Province are put forward.     

ANALYSIS OF DRIVING FORCES ON THE CHANGE OF HISTORICAL FARMLAND USE IN SHANDONG PROVINCE DURING THE QING DYNASTY （1644-1911）

How land-cover has been changed by human use over the last 300 years is one of the five overarching questions guiding the Land-use/Cover Change (LUCC) Science/Research Plan. China has variety of historical docu-ments providing unique data superiority. So the characteristics of farmland area in Shandong Province during the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911) are summarized firstly: 1) the rising trend of farmland area was striking; 2) farmland area had re-markable fluctuation; 3) farmland area per capita decreased dramatically; 4) wasteland reclamation index increased rapidly. Then, the driving forces of farmland area change are analyzed. It is concluded that natural and human factors are jointly influential. Among the driving forces, human dimensions are the main factors of farmland area change,which direct the general tendency of the changes mentioned above. And the natural factors influence the stability of farmland area as well. Variation of the natural factors would act as the major contributory factor to farmland area change during years or periods of abrupt climatic changes, or during the intensive occurring periods of natural hazards.Besides, the passive aspects of human factors, such as war chaos also influenced the fluctuation of the farmland area.This research indicates that it is feasible to study the land-use/cover change by Chinese historical literatures, which has huge potential to provide a comprehensive picture of the growing dominance of human land-use and land-cover pat-terns that can be used in many global change research oroiects.     

Effects of forest gaps on some microclimate variables in Castanopsis kawakamii natural forest

The objective of this study was to understand the effects of forest gap and variations in different seasons, gap size, locations and diurnal variations on forest microclimate and soil water content. Spatial and temporal distribution features of air temperature (TA ), soil temperature (TS ), relative humidity (h) and soil water content (Ψ) were measured in Castanopsis kawakamii natural forest gaps created by a severe typhoon or fallen dead trees. The results showed that: (1) the variations of TA , h, and TS in four seasons were extremely significant. The variations of Ψ in four seasons were extremely significant except for those between spring and summer. (2) The diurnal variations of TA and T S were expressed with a single peak curve. The diurnal variations of h and Ψ presented a high-low-high trend. (3) The variations of TA , h, and TS were extremely significant among the large, medium and small gaps in C. kawakamii natural forest. Medium gaps had the highest TA and the lowest h while small gaps were just contrary to medium gaps. The variations of Ψ were extremely significant for large, medium and small gaps except those between the medium and large gaps. (4) The TA , h, TS and Ψ were decreased from the gap center, canopy gap, expanded gap to understory. These results will help further our understanding of the abiotic and consequent biotic responses to gaps in the mid-subtropical broadleaved forests, which also provide a theoretical basis for the scientific management and population restoration of C. kawakamii natural forest.     

LAND USE／COVER CHANGE AND DRIVING FORCES IN SOUTHERN LIAONING PROVINCE SINCE 1950S

1IN TR O D U CTIO N Land isthemost essentiaplhysicalresource asnd mate- rialbasisforpeople'slif e(LIU,1996).Land use/cover change(LUCC ) isa key aspectofglobalenvironment change, andindicatetsheinfluencoefhuman activiti on physicaelnvironment.As we allkno…     

Regional Equity and Influencing Factor of Social Assistance in China

Social assistance is the last safety net in the social security system and plays a vital role in poverty alleviation in countries around the world. Promoting the equal financial assistance is meaningful to achieve equalization of social assistance. Based on the provincial panel data from 2002 to 2017, this paper analyzes the dynamic characteristics and main influencing factors of the equity of social assistance in China, using the Theil index and geographically weighted regression(GWR) model. The results suggest that the level of per capita social assistance expenditure(PSAE) in China keeps increasing year by year, but the changes in different regions and provinces are quite different. These changes not only significantly changed the spatial pattern of PSAE in China, but also greatly improved its spatial coupling with the deeply impoverished areas. Further analysis shows that the regional inequality of PSAE between provinces is obvious during the study period, and the inter-regional inequality is significantly higher than the intra-regional inequality.This makes inter-regional inequality become the main source of the regional inequality of PSAE in China for a long time. According to GWR results, there is obvious spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the influence intensity and direction of the per capita financial revenue,urbanization rate, urban unemployment rate, natural disaster-affected area, and transfer payment intensity on the PSAE. The urbanization rate and per capita financial revenue are the main driving factors of PSAE, and the impact intensity of per capita financial revenue tends to strengthen. The remaining three factors have a positive effect on PSAE, but the effect intensity is not high.     

Driving forces and their effects on water conservation services in forest ecosystems in China

Identifying the driving forces that cause changes in forest ecosystem services related to water conservation is essential for the design of interventions that could enhance positive impacts as well as minimizing negative impacts. In this study, we propose an assessment concept framework model for indirect-direct-ecosystem service (IN-DI-ESS) driving forces within this context and method for index construction that considers the selection of a robust and parsimonious variable set. Factor analysis was integrated into two-stage data envelopment analysis (TS-DEA) to determine the driving forces and their effects on water conservation services in forest ecosystems at the provincial scale in China. The results showed the following. 1) Ten indicators with factor scores more than 0.8 were selected as the minimum data set. Four indicators comprising population density, per capita gross domestic product, irrigation efficiency, and per capita food consumption were the indirect driving factors, and six indicators comprising precipitation, farmland into forestry or pasture, forest cover, habitat area, water footprint, and wood extraction were the direct driving forces. 2) Spearman’s rank correlation test was performed to compare the overall effectiveness in two periods: stage 1 and stage 2. The calculated coefficients were 0.245, 0.136, and 0.579, respectively, whereas the tabulated value was 0.562. This indicates that the driving forces obviously differed in terms of their contribution to the overall effectiveness and they caused changes in water conservation services in different stages. In terms of the variations in different driving force effects in the years 2000 and 2010, the overall, stage 1, and stage 2 variances were 0.020, 0.065, and 0.079 in 2000, respectively, and 0.018, 0.063, and 0.071 in 2010. This also indicates that heterogeneous driving force effects were obvious in the process during the same period. Identifying the driving forces that affect service changes and evaluating their efficiency have significant policy implications for the management of forest ecosystem services. Advanced effectiveness measures for weak regions could be improved in an appropriate manner. In this study, we showed that factor analysis coupled with TS-DEA based on the IN-DI-ESS framework can increase the parsimony of driving force indicators, as well as interpreting the interactions among indirect and direct driving forces with forest ecosystem water conservation services, and reducing the uncertainty related to the internal consistency during data selection.     

China's Urbanization in 1949–2015: Processes and Driving Forces

The pace and scale of China's contemporary urbanization are stunning. This paper reviews process and the underlying driving forces of China's urbanization between 1949–2015. Contemporary China's urbanization has experienced four stages, and each has had different driving forces: 1) economic re-construction and industrialization-led urbanization(1949–1977); 2) economic reform and market-led urbanization(1978–1995); 3) economic globalization and the global-local urbanization(1996–2010); and 4) the land-economyled urbanization(2010–). These urbanization processes and driving forces will undoubtedly provide scientific reference and have significant implications for developing countries, especially African countries, to formulate their urbanization public policies.     

Origin distribution patterns and floating population modeling: Yiwu City as a destination

Existing quantitative migration studies are mainly at the inter-region or inter-province level for lacking of detailed geo-referenced migration data.Meanwhile,few of them integrate explorative spatial data analysis and spatial regression model into migration analysis.Based on aggregated registered floating population data from 2005 to 2008,the phenomena that population floating to Yiwu City in Zhejiang Province is analyzed at the provincial and county levels.The spatial layout of Yiwu’s pull forces is proved as a V-shaped pattern excluding Sichuan Province based on map visualization method.Using the migration ratio in 2007 as an explanatory variable,two models are compared using ordinary least square,spatial error model and spatial lag model methods for county-level data in Jiangxi and Anhui provinces.The model with migration stock provides an improved fitting over the model without migration stock according to the model fitting results.The floating population flocking into Yiwu City from Jiangxi is determined mostly by migration stock while the determinant factors are migration stock and distance to Yiwu City for Anhui.The distance-decay effect is true for migration flow from Anhui to Yiwu City while the distance rule is not confirmed in Jiangxi with the best fitting model.The correlation between per capita net income of rural labor forces and migration ratio is not significant in Jiangxi and significant but at the 0.1 level only in Anhui.Further analysis shows that the distance,income and man-land ratio are important factors to explain population floating at earlier stage.However,as the dynamic population floating process evolves,the determinant factor would be migration stock.     

近20年来黄土高原地区的经济增长时空分异特征

 经济不均衡增长是区域发展的一种常态。分析区域经济增长时空差异及成因,对于认识和加快落后地区的经济发展具有重要的意义。本研究在GIS技术的支持下,对黄土高原地区近20年来以县市为单元的经济增长时空分异特征进行了系统的分析。主要结论有:改革开放以来,黄土高原地区的GDP水平呈现出持续的快速增长态势。近20年来,陕北和内蒙古鄂尔多斯地区增长最为迅速;人均GDP的空间分布整体上呈现出"两高一低"的带状分布格局,且这种格局明显地受到极化增长的扰动和重塑;经济增长表现出显著的极化增长特征,且经济增长极的极化作用与增长极之间地位的调整是同时进行的;与常态化的城市产业集聚推动型经济相比,机遇性的资源开发拉动型经济对人均GDP的拉动速度更快,但可持续性较差。未来,黄土高原地区应走以中心城市带动为主,以能矿产资源开发拉动为辅,两者相互促进,共同带动整个区域经济更快、更好、更可持续地发展的道路。     

The Interaction of Population,Industry and Land in Process of Urbanization in China: A Case Study in Jilin Province

Urbanization is a complex process that covers a wide range of topics, of which population, industry and land urbanization are three important aspects. Jilin Province is an important agricultural province in China. The contradiction between population, industry and land urbanization is especially prominent here, and its coupling development is of great practical significance. In this paper, the coupling degree of population-industry-land urbanization in Jilin Province in 1990, 2000 and 2010 is measured by coupling mode. The spatial pattern of the coupling degree is analyzed by trend surface analysis and global and local spatial autocorrelation. The influence factors and their spatial differentiation are discussed using multiple linear regression (MLR) model and geographic weighted regression (GWR) model. The results show that: 1) the coupling degree of population-industry-land urbanization in Jilin Province is at a low level. Judging from the change of time scale, the urbanization of most research units is becoming more and more coordinated. From the comparison of spatial scales, there is significant spatial difference in the research units of different administrative levels. 2) Judging from the global change trend, the coupling degree of population-industry-land urbanization in the central region is higher than that in western and eastern regions. The coordination of urbanization in the central region is relatively good, and the distribution of the cold and hot spots is basically the same as that overall. 3) The spatial pattern of the coupling degree is related to the cold and hot spot distribution of the influence coefficient of urban population density and per capita urban construction land. The variation of the coupling degree spatial pattern is synchronous with the spatial change of the urban population density influence coefficient. 4) The degree of agglomeration of the urban population is the main factor promoting the coupling pattern of population-industry-land urbanization in Jilin Province, and the extent of its influence is gradually increasing. In addition, the level of city administrative, the efficiency of urban expansion and the capacity of market consumption also have an important influence on the coupling pattern.     

Effects of Climatic Change on Evapotranspiration in Zhalong Wetland, Northeast China

1 Introduction As a result of persistent increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since the 1950s, global and regional climate features, such as temperature and precipitation, have ob- viously changed (Yu et al., 2002). The General Circulation Models (GCMs) provide potential climate scenarios by studying the effects of carbon dioxide on the temperature. Tickell (1993) predicted that the mean temperature will increase by 1℃ till the year 2050 and by 3℃ at the end of the 22th century. S…     

Evaluation of water resources conserved by forests in the Hani rice terraces system of Honghe County,Yunnan, China: an application of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model

The Hani Rice Terraces System, based on gravity-flow irrigation, is one of the Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems(GIAHS) pilot sites selected by FAO in 2010. The water resource plays an important role in the sustainable development of this system. The value of water conserved by the forest is influenced by natural, economic and social factors. In this paper, the water quality, per capita water resources, per capita GDP and population density are chosen as indices to construct an index system for a comprehensive evaluation of water resources value. The weights of these indices are 0.443, 0.31, 0.141 and 0.106 respectively, which are determined by the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) method. The water resources value has been assessed by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The results show that the water resources value in the Hani Rice Terraces System is 4.25 RMB/m~3. Evaluating the value of water resources in the Hani Rice Terraces System can provide a reference for ecological compensation, for raising public awareness of the importance of protecting the system, and ultimately achieving its sustainable development.