Ranking the risk of CO2 emissions from seagrass soil carbon stocks under global change threats

Seagrass meadows are natural carbon storage hotspots at risk from global change threats, and their loss can result in the remineralization of soil carbon stocks and CO₂ emissions fueling climate change. Here we used expert elicitation and empirical evidence to assess the risk of CO₂ emissions from seagrass soils caused by multiple human-induced, biological and climate change threats. Judgments from 41 experts were synthesized into a seagrass CO₂ emission risk score based on vulnerability factors (i.e., spatial scale, frequency, magnitude, resistance and recovery) to seagrass soil organic carbon stocks. Experts perceived that climate change threats (e.g., gradual ocean warming and increased storminess) have the highest risk for CO₂ emissions at global spatial scales, while direct threats (i.e., dredging and building of a marina or jetty) have the largest CO₂ emission risks at local spatial scales. A review of existing peer-reviewed literature showed a scarcity of studies assessing CO₂ emissions following seagrass disturbance, but the limited empirical evidence partly confirmed the opinion of experts. The literature review indicated that direct and long-term disturbances have the greatest negative impact on soil carbon stocks per unit area, highlighting that immediate management actions after disturbances to recover the seagrass canopy can significantly reduce soil CO₂ emissions. We conclude that further empirical evidence assessing global change threats on the seagrass carbon sink capacity is required to aid broader uptake of seagrass into blue carbon policy frameworks. The preliminary findings from this study can be used to estimate the potential risk of CO₂ emissions from seagrass habitats under threat and guide nature-based solutions for climate change mitigation.     

Using carbon finance to support climate policy objectives in high mountain ecosystems

Carbon markets and climate finance payments are being used to incentivize the mitigation of CO₂ arising from anthropogenic land-use change in forests, marine ecosystems, and lowland grasslands. However, no such consideration has been given to how these ‘carbon finance incentives’ might be applied to mountain grasslands and shrublands, ecosystems that contain a substantial amount of carbon. These incentives amount to more than US$350 billion per annum and could potentially support underfunded natural resource management (NRM) activities, which are urgently needed to address numerous stressors impacting these important ecosystems. In the mountain context, NRM activities could include adaptive grazing management, sustainable cropping, ecosystem preservation, ecosystem restoration, and engineered soil conservation measures. This article investigates the stressors, challenges, and priorities related to the NRM of carbon stocks in mountain grasslands and shrublands; why carbon markets and climate finance have not yet been utilized in this context; and, what is required to position mountain-based NRM activities as eligible for carbon finance incentives. Using surveys and interviews triangulated with a systematic literature review, the study found that carbon finance incentives are not well understood, both amongst mountain-focused experts and in the literature. The study also found the required technical methodologies, policy frameworks, and data to be largely undeveloped. This article proposes a top-down conceptual policy framework that can be used to develop key ‘enabling factors’ with the view of extending the eligibility of carbon markets and climate finance to NRM activities undertaken in mountain grasslands and shrublands in the same way that has been afforded to other ecosystems.

Policy relevance

This is the first study to explicitly highlight the important role that the mountain grasslands and shrublands might play in international climate policy, and how carbon finance mechanisms might support better NRM in these areas. It is also the first to investigate why these incentives have not been adopted thus far. The article concludes by proposing a novel top-down ‘carbon incentive enabling’ framework that could be driven by governments and mountain development focused organizations so as to capture some of the opportunities offered by carbon-based incentives, and help meet international climate policy objectives.     

Climate change impacts on ecosystems and the terrestrial carbon sink: a new assessment

Climate output from the UK Hadley Centre's HadCM2 and HadCM3 experiments for the period 1860 to 2100, with IS92a greenhouse gas forcing, together with predicted patterns of N deposition and increasing CO₂, were input (offline) to the dynamic vegetation model, Hybrid v4.1 (Friend et al., 1997; Friend and White, 1999). This model represents biogeochemical, biophysical and biogeographical processes, coupling the carbon, nitrogen and water cycles on a sub-daily timestep, simulating potential vegetation and transient changes in annual growth and competition between eight generalized plant types in response to climate.Global vegetation carbon was predicted to rise from about 600 to 800 PgC (or to 650 PgC for HadCM3) while the soil carbon pool of about 1100 PgC decreased by about 8%. By the 2080s, climate change caused a partial loss of Amazonian rainforest, C₄ grasslands and temperate forest in areas of southern Europe and eastern USA, but an expansion in the boreal forest area. These changes were accompanied by a decrease in net primary productivity (NPP) of vegetation in many tropical areas, southern Europe and eastern USA (in response to warming and a decrease in rainfall), but an increase in NPP of boreal forests. Global NPP increased from 45 to 50 PgC y⁻¹ in the 1990s to about 65 PgC y⁻¹ in the 2080s (about 58 PgC y⁻¹ for HadCM3). Global net ecosystem productivity (NEP) increased from about 1.3 PgC y⁻¹ in the 1990s to about 3.6 PgC y⁻¹ in the 2030s and then declined to zero by 2100 owing to a loss of carbon from declining forests in the tropics and at warm temperate latitudes — despite strengthening of the carbon sink at northern high latitudes. HadCM3 gave a more erratic temporal evolution of NEP than HadCM2, with a dramatic collapse in NEP in the 2050s.     

Cleaner generation,free-riders,and environmental integrity: clean development mechanism and the power sector

This article provides a first-cut estimate of the potential impacts of the clean development mechanism (CDM) on electricity generation and carbon emissions in the power sector of non-Annex 1 countries. We construct four illustrative CDM regimes that represent a range of approaches under consideration within the climate community. We examine the impact of these CDM regimes on investments in new generation, under illustrative carbon trading prices of US$ 10 and 100/t C. In the cases that are most conducive to CDM activity, roughly 94% of new generation investments remains identical to the without-CDM situation, with only 6% shifting from higher to lower carbon intensity technologies. We estimate that the CDM would bolster renewable energy generation by as little as 15% at US$ 10/t C, or as much as 300% at US$ 100/t C.A striking finding comes from our examination of the potential magnitude of the “free-rider” problem, i.e. crediting of activities that will occur even in the absence of the CDM. The CDM is intended to be globally carbon-neutral — a project reduces emissions in the host country but generates credits that increase emissions in the investor country. However, to the extent that unwarranted credits are awarded to non-additional projects, the CDM would increase global carbon emissions above the without-CDM emissions level. Under two of the CDM regimes considered, cumulative free-riders credits total 250–600 Mt C through the end of the first budget period in 2012. This represents 10–23% of the likely OECD emissions reduction requirement during the first budget period. Since such a magnitude of free-rider credits from non-additional CDM projects could threaten the environmental integrity of the Kyoto protocol, it is imperative that policy makers devise CDM rules that encourage legitimate projects, while effectively screening out non-additional activities.     

2C or not 2C?

Political attention has increasingly focused on limiting warming to 2 °C. However, there is no consensus on both questions “Is the 2 °C target achievable?” and “What should be done with this target that becomes increasingly difficult to achieve?”. This paper aims at disentangling the points of deep uncertainty underlying this absence on consensus. It first gives simple visualizations of the challenge posed by the 2 °C target and shows how key assumptions (on the points of deep uncertainty) influence the answer to the target achievability question. It then proposes an “uncertainties and decisions tree”, linking different beliefs on climate change, the achievability of different policies, and current international policy dynamics to various options to move forward on climate change.     

Impacts and adaptation to climate change in European economies

This paper evaluates the impacts of climate change to European economies under an increase in global mean temperature at +2 °C and +4 °C. It is based on a summary of conclusions from available studies of how climate change may affect various sectors of the economies in different countries. We apply a macroeconomic general equilibrium model, which integrates impacts of climate change on different activities of the economies. Agents adapt by responding to the changes in market conditions following the climatic changes, thus bringing consistency between economic behaviour and adaptation to climate change. Europe is divided into 85 sub-regions in order to capture climate variability and variations in vulnerabilities within countries. We find that the impacts in the +2 °C are moderate throughout Europe, with positive impacts on GDP in some sub-regions and negative impacts down to 0.1 per cent per year in others. At +4 °C, GDP is negatively affected throughout Europe, and most substantially in the southern parts, where it falls by up to 0.7 per cent per year in some sub-regions. We also find that climate change causes differentiations in wages across Europe, which may cause migration from southern parts of Europe to northern parts, especially to the Nordic countries.     

How the future of the global forest sink depends on timber demand,forest management,and carbon policies

Deforestation has contributed significantly to net greenhouse gas emissions, but slowing deforestation, regrowing forests and other ecosystem processes have made forests a net sink. Deforestation will still influence future carbon fluxes, but the role of forest growth through aging, management, and other silvicultural inputs on future carbon fluxes are critically important but not always recognized by bookkeeping and integrated assessment models. When projecting the future, it is vital to capture how management processes affect carbon storage in ecosystems and wood products. This study uses multiple global forest sector models to project forest carbon impacts across 81 shared socioeconomic (SSP) and climate mitigation pathway scenarios. We illustrate the importance of modeling management decisions in existing forests in response to changing demands for land resources, wood products and carbon. Although the models vary in key attributes, there is general agreement across a majority of scenarios that the global forest sector could remain a carbon sink in the future, sequestering 1.2–5.8 GtCO2e/yr over the next century. Carbon fluxes in the baseline scenarios that exclude climate mitigation policy ranged from −0.8 to 4.9 GtCO2e/yr, highlighting the strong influence of SSPs on forest sector model estimates. Improved forest management can jointly increase carbon stocks and harvests without expanding forest area, suggesting that carbon fluxes from managed forests systems deserve more careful consideration by the climate policy community.     

Assessment of climate change adaptation costs for the U.S. road network

The U.S. road network is one of the nation's most important capital assets and is vital to the functioning of the U.S. economy. Maintaining this asset involves approximately $134 billion of government funds annually from Federal, State, and local agencies. Climate change may represent a risk or an opportunity to this network, as changes in climate stress will affect the resources necessary for both road maintenance and construction projects. This paper develops an approach for estimating climate-related changes in road maintenance and construction costs such that the current level of service provided by roads is maintained over time. We estimate these costs under a baseline scenario in which annual mean global temperature increases by 1.5 °C in 2050 relative to the historical average and a mitigation scenario under which this increase in mean temperature is limited to 1.0 °C. Depending on the nature of the changes in climate that occur in a given area, our analysis suggests that climate change may lead to a reduction in road maintenance and/or construction costs or an increase in costs. Overall, however, our analysis shows that climate change, if unchecked, will increase the annual costs of keeping paved and unpaved roads in service by $785 million in present value terms by 2050. When not discounted, this figure increases to $2.8 billion. Policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to reduce these costs by approximately $280 million in present value terms and by $885 million when not discounted. These costs vary substantially by region and time period, information that should be important for transportation planners at the national, state, and local levels.     

Energy,land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm

This paper describes the possible developments in global energy use and production, land use, emissions and climate changes following the SSP1 storyline, a development consistent with the green growth (or sustainable development) paradigm (a more inclusive development respecting environmental boundaries). The results are based on the implementation using the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model and are compared with a) other IMAGE implementations of the SSPs (SSP2 and SSP3) and b) the SSP1 implementation of other integrated assessment models. The results show that a combination of resource efficiency, preferences for sustainable production methods and investment in human development could lead to a strong transition towards a more renewable energy supply, less land use and lower anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2100 than in 2010, even in the absence of explicit climate policies. At the same time, climate policy would still be needed to reduce emissions further, in order to reduce the projected increase of global mean temperature from 3 °C (SSP1 reference scenario) to 2 or 1.5 °C (in line with current policy targets). The SSP1 storyline could be a basis for further discussions on how climate policy can be combined with achieving other societal goals.     

MJO prediction skill,predictability, and teleconnection impacts in the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model

This study evaluates performance of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) prediction in the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model (BCC_AGCM2.2). By using the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) indices, it is shown that the MJO prediction skill of BCC_AGCM2.2 extends to about 16–17 days before the bivariate anomaly correlation coefficient drops to 0.5 and the root-mean-square error increases to the level of the climatological prediction. The prediction skill showed a seasonal dependence, with the highest skill occurring in boreal autumn, and a phase dependence with higher skill for predictions initiated from phases 2–4. The results of the MJO predictability analysis showed that the upper bounds of the prediction skill can be extended to 26 days by using a single-member estimate, and to 42 days by using the ensemble-mean estimate, which also exhibited an initial amplitude and phase dependence. The observed relationship between the MJO and the North Atlantic Oscillation was accurately reproduced by BCC_AGCM2.2 for most initial phases of the MJO, accompanied with the Rossby wave trains in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics driven by MJO convection forcing. Overall, BCC_AGCM2.2 displayed a significant ability to predict the MJO and its teleconnections without interacting with the ocean, which provided a useful tool for fully extracting the predictability source of subseasonal prediction.     

Influence of spatial and temporal scales on statistical analyses of rainfall variability in the River Nile basin

In this study, empirical orthogonal function was applied to analyze rainfall variability in the Nile basin based on various spatio-temporal scales. The co-occurrence of rainfall variability and the variation in selected climate indices was analyzed based on various spatio-temporal scales. From the highest to the lowest, the cumulative amount of variance explained by the first two principal components (PCs) for any selected size of the spatial domain was obtained for the annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall series respectively. The variability in the annual rainfall of 1° × 1° spatial coverage explained by only the first PC was about 55% on average. However, this percentage reduced to about 40% on average across the study area when the size of the spatial domain was increased from 1° × 1° to 10° × 10°. The variation in climate indices was shown to explain rainfall variability more suitably at a regional than location-specific spatial scale. The magnitudes and sometimes signs of the correlation between rainfall variability and the variation in climate indices tended to vary from one time scale to another. These findings are vital in the selection of spatial and temporal scales for more considered attribution of rainfall variability across the study area.     

Using the mean pressure gradient and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis to estimate the strength of the South Atlantic Anticyclone

A new methodology is proposed to estimate the strength of the South Atlantic Anticyclone (SAA), using the gridded sea level pressure (SLP) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis data. The top quartile (1017.3 hPa) of the SLP data was found a reasonable criterion to delimit the SAA area. Consequently, we defined the SAA area as the quadrangle containing 80% of the observations with pressure >1017.3 hPa. In this quadrangle, an area weighted pressure gradient (AWPG) was computed for the whole area and for the north–south and west–east halves. When compared with maximum pressure, the AWPG showed a better correlation with the significant wave height (SWH) and wind speed (WS) derived from altimetry. The mean value of the AWPG was 8 × 10⁻⁴ Pa/m, with representative values of 9.1 × 10⁻⁴ Pa/m and 7.4 × 10⁻⁴ Pa/m for austral winter and summer, respectively. The phase difference between the monthly AWPG in the north and south sub-quadrangles accounts for the evolution of the spatial pattern of the anticyclone throughout a year. This quantitative approach proved to be a useful estimate of the strength of South Atlantic Anticyclone. Further improvements of this approach are discussed.     

Farmer perceptions of climate change: Associations with observed temperature and precipitation trends,irrigation, and climate beliefs

How individuals perceive climate change is linked to whether individuals support climate policies and whether they alter their own climate-related behaviors, yet climate perceptions may be influenced by many factors beyond local shifts in weather. Infrastructure designed to control or regulate natural resources may serve as an important lens through which people experience climate, and thus may influence perceptions. Likewise, perceptions may be influenced by personal beliefs about climate change and whether it is human-induced. Here we examine farmer perceptions of historical climate change, how perceptions are related to observed trends in regional climate, how perceptions are related to the presence of irrigation infrastructure, and how perceptions are related to beliefs and concerns about climate change. We focus on the regions of Marlborough and Hawke’s Bay in New Zealand, where irrigation is utilized on the majority of cropland. Data are obtained through analysis of historical climate records from local weather stations, interviews (n = 20), and a farmer survey (n = 490). Across both regions, no significant historical trends in annual precipitation and summer temperatures since 1980 are observed, but winter warming trends are significant at around 0.2–0.3 °C per decade. A large fraction of farmers perceived increases in annual rainfall despite instrumental records indicating no significant trends, a finding that may be related to greater perceived water availability associated with irrigation growth. A greater fraction of farmers perceived rainfall increases in Marlborough, where irrigation growth has been most substantial. We find those classes of farmers more likely to have irrigation were also significantly more likely to perceive an increase in annual rainfall. Furthermore, we demonstrate that perceptions of changing climate – regardless of their accuracy – are correlated with increased belief in climate change and an increased concern for future climate impacts. Those farmers that believe climate change is occurring and is human induced are more likely to perceive temperature increases than farmers who believe climate change is not occurring and is not human induced. These results suggest that perceptions are influenced by a variety of personal and environmental factors, including infrastructure, which may in turn alter decisions about climate adaptation.     

Colonial contexts and the feasibility of mitigation through transition: A study of the impact of historical processes on the emissions dynamics of nation-states

It has long been accepted that the relative affluence and technological efficiency of nations are important contributors to their rate of emissions. These associations have, in turn, driven questions about the feasibility of mitigating anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions through incremental transition to “business as usual” policy structures in variant social contexts. Here, I explore the extent to which the historical context of colonial relations impacts the feasibility of a nation mitigating emissions per capita, emissions per dollar, and total emissions under current development logics. To do so I examine the structure of variation for 152 nations during the 1960–2018 period. Subsequently, I examine how being situated as an extractive colony in the past serves to moderate the association of GDP per capita with CO ₂ emissions per capita, CO ₂ emissions per dollar, and total CO ₂ emissions in the present. I find that roughly 11% of cross-national variation in CO ₂ emissions per capita and CO ₂ emissions per dollar, as well as nearly 6% of variation in total CO ₂ emissions between 1960 and 2018 is attributable to having been historically subjected to extractive colonial processes. These findings suggest that mitigation of emissions through transition of “business as usual” policy structures appears significantly less feasible for nations positioned as extractive colonies in the past, relative to all others.     

A global stocktake of the Paris pledges: Implications for energy systems and economy

The United Nations-led international climate change negotiations in Paris in December 2015 (COP21) trigger and enhance climate action across the globe. This paper presents a model-based assessment of the Paris Agreement. In particular, we assess the mitigation policies implied by the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) put forward in the run-up to COP21 by individual member states and a policy that is likely to limit global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We combine a technology-rich bottom-up energy system model with an economy-wide top-down CGE model to analyse the impact on greenhouse gas emissions, energy demand and supply, and the wider economic effects, including the implications for trade flows and employment levels. In addition, we illustrate how the gap between the Paris mitigation pledges and a pathway that is likely to restrict global warming to 2 °C can be bridged. Results indicate that energy demand reduction and a decarbonisation of the power sector are important contributors to overall emission reductions up to 2050. Further, the analysis shows that the Paris pledges lead to relatively small losses in GDP, indicating that global action to cut emissions is consistent with robust economic growth. The results for employment indicate a potential transition of jobs from energy-intensive to low-carbon, service oriented sectors.     

Child health outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa: A comparison of changes in climate and socio-economic factors

We compare changes in low birth weight and child malnutrition in 13 African countries under projected climate change versus socio-economic development scenarios. Climate scenarios are created by linking surface temperature gradients with declines in seasonal rainfall sea along with warming values of 1 °C and 2 °C. Socio-economic scenarios are developed by assigning regionally specific changes in access to household electricity and mother's education. Using these scenarios, in combination with established models of children's health, we investigate and compare the changes in predicted health outcomes. We find that the negative effects of warming and drying on child stunting could be mitigated by positive development trends associated with increasing mothers’ educational status and household access to electricity. We find less potential for these trends to mitigate how warming and drying trends impact birth weights. In short, under warming and drying, the risk of more malnourished children is greater than the risk of more children with low birth weights, but increases in child malnutrition could be averted in regions that increase access to educational resources and basic infrastructure.     

Kinematic metrics of the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico from satellite altimetry

We analyzed a 20-year time series (January 1st, 1993 through December 31st, 2012) of Loop Current (LC) surface area derived from satellite altimetry in the eastern Gulf of Mexico to estimate kinematical metrics of this potent flow. On average the LC intrudes to its maximum northward position about 216 ± 126 days after the previous eddy separation; and ∼30 ± 31 days later sheds a large anticyclonic eddy. When the northern extent of the LC intrusion following the previous eddy separation is greater than 27°N, the current retreats very quickly until it sheds another eddy with the entire separation process occurring on the order of 30 days. To first order the change in areal extent of the LC during intrusion into the Gulf occurs at an average rate of 225 km² day⁻¹, which corresponds to an intrusion velocity of 1.7 cm s⁻¹ of the LC front, and adds Caribbean water to the Gulf at a rate of 2.6 ± 0.7 Sv.     

Safe policies in an uncertain climate: an application of FUND

Various aspects of the role of uncertainty in greenhouse gas emission reduction policy are analyzed with the integrated assessment model FUND. FUND couples simple models of economy, climate, climate impacts, and emission abatement. Probability distribution functions are assumed for all major parameters in the model. Monte Carlo analyses are used to study the effects of parametric uncertainties. Uncertainties are found to be large and grow over time. Uncertainties about climate change impacts are more serious than uncertainties about emission reduction costs, so that welfare-maximizing policies are stricter under uncertainty than under certainty. This is more pronounced without than with international cooperation. Whether or not countries cooperate with one another is more important than whether or not uncertainty is considered. Meeting exogenously defined emission targets may be more or less difficult under uncertainty than under certainty, depending on the asymmetry in the uncertainty and the central estimate of interest. The major uncertainty in meeting emissions targets in each of a range of possible future is the timing of starting (serious) reduction policies. In a scenario aiming at a stable CO₂ concentration of 550 ppm, the start date varies 20 years for Annex I countries, and much longer for non-Annex countries. Atmospheric stabilization at 550 ppm does not avoid serious risks with regard to climate change impacts. At the long term, it is possible to avoid such risks but only through very strict emission control at high economic costs.     

Supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services from Australia's agricultural land under global change

Global agroecosystems can contribute to both climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation, and market mechanisms provide a highly prospective means of achieving these outcomes. However, the ability of markets to motivate the supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services from agricultural land is uncertain, especially given the future changes in environmental, economic, and social drivers. We quantified the potential supply of these services from the intensive agricultural land of Australia from 2013 to 2050 under four global outlooks in response to a carbon price and biodiversity payment scheme. Each global outlook specified emissions pathways, climate, food demand, energy price, and carbon price modeled using the Global Integrated Assessment Model (GIAM). Using a simplified version of the Land Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) model, economic returns to agriculture, carbon plantings, and environmental plantings were calculated each year. The supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services was then quantified given potential land use change under each global outlook, and the sensitivity of the results to key parameters was assessed. We found that carbon supply curves were similar across global outlooks. Sharp increases in carbon sequestration supply occurred at carbon prices exceeding 50 $ tCO₂⁻¹ in 2015 and exceeding 65 $ tCO₂⁻¹ in 2050. Based on GIAM-modeled carbon prices, little carbon sequestration was expected at 2015 under any global outlook. However, at 2050 expected carbon supply under each outlook differed markedly, ranging from 0 to 189 MtCO₂ yr⁻¹. Biodiversity services of 3.32% of the maximum may be achieved in 2050 for a 1 $B investment under median scenario settings. We conclude that a carbon market can motivate supply of substantial carbon sequestration but only modest amounts of biodiversity services from agricultural land. A complementary biodiversity payment can synergistically increase the supply of biodiversity services but will not provide much additional carbon sequestration. The results were sensitive to global drivers, especially the carbon price, and the domestic drivers of adoption hurdle rate and agricultural productivity. The results can inform the design of an effective national policy and institutional portfolio addressing the dual objectives of climate change and biodiversity conservation that is robust to future uncertainty in both national and global drivers.     

Does effective climate policy require well-informed citizen support?

Citizen support for climate policies is typically seen as an important criterion in climate policy making. Some studies of climate policy support assume that a significant number of citizens need to be aware of the policies in question and able to provide informed opinions. In this study, we probe this assumption using a web-based survey of residents of the Canadian province of British Columbia (n = 475) by assessing: (1) citizen awareness and knowledge of climate policies, (2) citizen support for different climate policies, (3) the relationship between citizen knowledge and policy support, and (4) the effect of information provision on policy support. Our main finding is that most survey respondents are not aware of any of British Columbia's climate policies, and have little understanding of the potential effect of these on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Once they are made aware of different types of climate policies, respondents are more likely to express support for regulations, such as the zero-emissions electricity standard and energy efficiency regulations, and less likely to support a carbon tax. Statistical analysis indicates that citizen knowledge of policy is not associated with higher policy support. Furthermore, providing information on likely policy effectiveness to our survey respondents did not translate into higher support, suggesting that widespread knowledge and well-informed citizen support are not necessarily required for implementation of effective climate policies.