热带气旋Rossby波能量频散问题研究进展

热带气旋是发生在热带洋面上的强烈气旋性涡旋.由于地转涡度梯度的存在,热带气旋在移动过程中不断发生Rossby波能量频散,并在热带气旋运动方向的后部激发出反气旋和气旋交替排列的Rossby波能量频散波列.多热带气旋共存和热带气旋的异常运动是当前国际热带气旋研究领域的热点问题,热带气旋Rossby能量频散被证实与多个热带气旋连续生成和异常运动密切相关.本文从热带气旋能量频散及波列特征、主要影响因子、反馈作用等方面,回顾总结了国内外关于热带气旋Rossby波能量频散的相关研究进展,并提出当前亟待解决的一些科学问题.目的是为深入研究热带气旋Rossby波能量频散及其影响提供基础和参考,以期使更多的研究学者关注热带气旋能量频散问题,从而进一步揭示热带气旋生成、发展和异常运动的动力学机理.

     

海南井水位对热带气旋响应特征分析

2001-2010年,海南省地下流体观测台网记录到多次热带气旋引起的井水位抖动现象.本文以2003年7月21日强热带气旋“天鹅”和2005年9月27日台风“达维”为例,系统地研究了这两次热带气旋引起的水位抖动变化的特征.结果表明,经过高通滤波,水位抖动变化图像更加明显;通过频谱分析,得知热带气旋引起的水位抖动周期为100-101 min;井水位抖动的起始时间、幅度最大值的时间与热带气旋通过海南岛陆的时间一致,且与热带气旋的结构特点、发展和运动过程密切相关,与井孔自身的井-含水层系统对微动态信息响应的能力也有关系.分析认为,气压振荡式升降变化和摩擦是热带气旋引起水位抖动的原因.     

热带气旋年潜在影响力指数

研究了热带气旋年潜在影响力指数（YTCPI）与我国热带气旋活动、灾害损失以及主要背景场的关系,结果表明,1971～2010年,登陆我国以及在24h警戒线内活动的热带气旋频数与YTCPI的相关系数分别为0．58和0．56（显著性水平达到99．9％以上）,一年中热带气旋活动点次和平均风速的乘积以及参考目前常用的热带气旋综合指数定义的平方和指数、立方和指数与YTCPI的相关系数分别为0．75,0．82和0．78,1994—2009年修正的直接经济损失与YTCPI的相关系数为0．57（显著性水平达到95％以上）,这表明YTCPI可以反映热带气旋影响我国的活动情况以及潜在影响程度．1971～2010年前期冬季平均的海表温度场、850和500hPa高度场的EOF第一模态空间分布型的中心与相应的YTCPI高相关区分布较为一致,且第一模态的时间序列与YTCPI指数的相关系数分别为0．46,0．44和0．4,显著性水平达到99％以上,表明主要环境场的信息能够较好地反映在与YTCPI的相关关系之中．总的来说,YTCPI作为一个综合指数,比登陆或影响频数作为预测对象更具优势,应用价值较高．     

冷空气入侵对热带气旋发生发展的影响

本文从梯度风方程出发,证明温度梯度增强对涡度起到增强作用.因此当冷空气侵入热带气旋外围时,只要没有破坏热带气旋的暖心结构,就会引起温度梯度的增长,从而促进热带气旋的发生发展.本文采用NCAR/PSU研制的非静力中尺度模式MM5,研究北半球冷暖空气入侵在热带气旋形成和加强过程中的作用.通过研究冷暖空气对热带气旋发展影响的试验发现,冷暖空气在入侵热带气旋外围时,最主要改变的是外围的环流场.北半球冷空气的入侵将会增强热带气旋北面的北风,形成指向热带气旋中心的推力,即辐合增强,暖空气入侵减弱北面的北风,形成背向热带气旋中心的拉力,即辐合减弱.由于拉力作用,一方面把边界上由于冷空气入侵而生成的能量往热带气旋中心输送,另一方面导致温度梯度的增加.因此从天气学形势来看,在热带气旋发生发展的过程中,北方的冷高压将会增强热带气旋北面的风速,从而导致热带气旋的增强;南半球澳高的增强,将使越赤道气流增强,热带气旋南面的风速也因此增强,从而引起热带气旋的增强.     

热带气旋路径预报概率圆应用

热带气旋路径预报采用预报概率圆可以有效减少不可避免的预报错误,在2004～2007年中央气象台主观路径预报资料的基础上,使用统计方法并根据预报误差与热带气旋预报移动速度和移动方向的相关关系分类,分别计算了相应的24、48、72 h路径预报的70%概率圆半径,修改了原来业务中使用的概率圆半径,以期替代原来在业务中使用的概率圆半径。同时应用修改后的概率圆半径对近5年的路径主观预报进行了分析,给出了2004～2007年预报误差分布特点以及较大预报误差热带气旋个例的误差产生原因,并讨论了该方法改进的可能性。     

热带气旋集合预报中的不确定性研究

综合考虑了数值天气预报过程中的两种不确定性：初值和模式的不确定性,建立了一个拥有20个成员的中尺度集合预报系统来模拟1997年热带气旋Danny的路径和对流系统.发现模拟气旋路径的集合平均误差在12 h以后比所有成员的误差都小.通过考察模拟结果对各种不确定性的敏感性,发现两种不确定性在模拟中都很重要,但不同的不确定性对模拟结果的贡献是不同的.初值的不确定性主要影响模式积分的前12 h,模式的不确定性在整个积分过程中始终存在.不确定性最敏感的区域主要分布在气旋附近的强天气区.     

热带气旋风场模型构造及特征参数估算

探讨了利用气旋风场分布的经验模型估算热带气旋尺度(8级大风圈半径)的方法.用美国联合台风警报中心整编的2001年西北太平洋热带气旋的“最佳尺度”资料,确定了各模型的经验常数,并计算了各模型的估算精度.结果表明,“VBogus”模型能获得热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,简称TC)尺度的较好估算.基于“VBogus”模型,通过拟合热带气旋尺度的非对称分布,构造了能描述热带气旋非对称风场的"修正VBogus"模型,并估算了该模型中各参数在不同季节和不同地理区域的取值,为热带气旋尺度变化和非对称结构机制等问题的研究和应用提供新依据.     

近50年影响中国热带气旋的气候变化特征

本文用CMA-STI整编的热带气旋最佳路径和大风、降水观测资料,用分位数回归拟合法分析了过去50年热带气旋对我国及四个区域（华南、华东、东北和内陆地区）的风雨影响趋势.分析表明,在过去50年间,影响我国及各区域的热带气旋频数基本不变,但对全国及东北地区而言高频年份有显著减少.影响的热带气旋在南海西北部及广东和山东半岛一带的活动有显著减少.过去50年热带气旋影响季节特征最主要的变化是内陆地区的影响日数在分布的主峰区有明显变化,影响日数少的年份显著减少.过去50年间,热带气旋所致的大风在全国及各区的平均风速的大值一致减少,但阵风风速的趋势出现分化,且各区也不相同.而热带气旋的降水影响,最大过程降水量和最大1小时降水量虽有变化但趋势不显著.     

热带气旋"鲸鱼"影响海南地震监测特征分析

海南岛地理位置的特殊性,常年受到热带气旋的影响。海南监测台站通过平时晴朗天气与热带气旋2种天气状态,比较其频谱,分析热带气旋影响海南地震监测特征,结果表明,热带气旋主要影响低频信号,受影响的振幅是平时10倍左右。之后,分别采用双二阶滤波(Direct Form II)和零相位数字滤波(Zero Phase IIR)方式剔除热带气旋的干扰频段,比较干扰前后地震定位、震级测定结果,表明热带气旋会影响地震定位及震级测定。     

热带气旋路径预报的遗传算法客观综合决策研究

研究了一种采用遗传算法(GA)用于台风移动的多预测结论的客观综合决策方法. 通过对1884~2002年的台风数据超大样本训练学习, 设计了用于台风路径预测的遗传学习人工神经元网络(GLANN), 可以把台风移动的预测转化为在其移动中对运动环境动态变化的适应. 采用GA进行网络结构描述, 提出一种遗传选择适应度函数设计, 并给出获得适应度最高(误差最小)的计算方法. 采用人工神经元网络遗传算法与其他方法, 对近年来异常路径台风进行了预报能力的平行对比分析. 参加对比试验的台风有多种类型, 包括海、陆生命史较长, 且登陆影响严重的9711号台风(Winnie), 20世纪90年代以来登陆并影响我国的10个疑难路径台风, 1998年登陆及影响我国的台风, 以及2000年在西北太平洋和南中国海生成的台风24~48 h预报. 试验结果表明, GA方法优于其他方法, 对异常路径台风表现出明显的预报能力.     

Yearly tropical cyclone potential impact index in China

A new composite index called the yearly tropical cyclone potential impact(YTCPI)is introduced.The relationship between YTCPI and activities of tropical cyclones(TCs)in China,disaster loss,and main ambient fields are investigated to show the potential of YTCPI as a new tool for short-term climate prediction of TCs.YTCPI can indicate TC activity and potential disaster loss.As correlation coefficients between YTCPI and frequency of landfalling TCs,the frequency of TCs traversing or forming inside a 24 h warning line in China from 1971 to 2010 are 0.58 and 0.56,respectively(both are at a statistically significant level,aboveα=0.001).Furthermore,three simple indexes are used to compare with YTCPI.They all have very close relationships with it,with correlation coefficients 0.75,0.82 and 0.78.For economic loss and YTCPI,the correlation coefficient is 0.57 for 1994–2009.Information on principal ambient fields(sea surface temperature,850 and 500 hPa geopotential heights)during the previous winter is reflected in the relationship with YTCPI.Spatial and temporal variabilities of ambient fields are extracted through empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis.Spatial distributions of correlation coefficient between YTCPI and ambient fields match the EOF main mode.Correlation coefficients between YTCPI and the EOF time array for the three ambient fields are 0.46,0.44 and 0.4,respectively,all statistically significant,aboveα=0.01.The YTCPI has the overall potential to be an improved prediction tool.     

Mechanism for initial brows-like meso-scale vortex effects on tropical cyclone track

We used a two-dimensional quasi-geostrophic barotropic model simulation to study effects of an initial brows-like meso-scale vortex on tropical cyclone(TC) track.Our results show that the impact of each of the three foundational factors(the environmental current,the asymmetric structure and the asymmetric convection system) on TC track varies with time and the importance of each of the factors is different for the different TC motion time period.They show two kinds of the effects.One is a direct way.The asymmetric outer wind structure and the positive longitudinal wind speed averaged in radial-band(100-300) km in the period of(0-11) h are caused by the introduction of the initial brows-like meso-scale vortex,which results in TC track to turn to the north from the northwest directly.The other is an indirect influence.First,initial TC axisymmetric circulation becomes a non-axisymmetric circulation after the addition of the meso-scale vortex.The initial non-axisymmetric circulation experiences an axisymmetrizational process in the period of(0-11) h.Second,axisymmetrizationed TC horizontal size is enlarged after t=12 h.Third,both the TC asymmetric structure and the TC energy dispersion induced-anticyclone are intensified,which quickens the TC motion and results in the track to turn to the north indirectly.The TC motion is characterized by the unusual track under the direct and the indirect effect.The formation of the unusual track should be attributed to the common effects of three factors,including the environmental flow,the TC asymmetric structure and the asymmetric convection system.     

An integrated decision method for prediction of tropical cyclone movement by using genetic algorithm

Typhoon disaster is one of the most influentialnatural disasters. The strong storm surge of Bangla-desh cyclone, which happened in November 1970,resulted in 300000 deaths. Asia and the western Pa-cific can be regarded as an area where is affected mostseverely by the disasters of tropical storms[1]. Themost important thing is to improve the accuracy oftyphoon tracks prediction internationally. Lande-sea,C.[2] pointed out that for a successful forecast oftropic cyclone (TC) tracks, it is not …     

Relationship between the Asian-Pacific oscillation and the tropical cyclone frequency in the western North Pacific

The relationship between the Asian-Pacific oscillation (APO) and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) in summer is preliminarily investigated through an analysis of ob- served data. The result has shown clearly that APO is significantly and positively correlated to the tropical cyclone frequency in the WNP. If APO is above (below) the normal in summer, more (less) tropical cyclones will tend to appear in the WNP. The present study also addresses the large-scale at- mospheric general circulation changes underlying the linkage between APO and the WNP tropical cy- clone frequency. It follows that a positive phase of summer APO is concurrent with weakened as well as northward and eastward located western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), low-level convergence and high-level divergence, and reduced vertical zonal wind shear in the WNP, providing favorable envi- ronment for the tropical cyclone genesis, and thus more tropical cyclones will come into being, and vice versa.     

Urban effects and summer thunderstorms in a tropical cyclone affected situation over Guangzhou city

With data mainly from Guangzhou mesonet Automatic Weather Stations (AWS), Guangzhou Doppler Radar and satellite T _BB data, characteristics and evolution of the urban heat island (UHI) over Guangzhou City were analyzed in a tropical cyclone affected situation for early August 2005. In particular, two thunderstorms occurring during this period respectively at the night of 4 August and in the afternoon of 7 August were investigated to study the relationships between the development of thunderstorms and the UHI. Results showed that two thunderstorms were associated with the UHI effects. UHI induced local air convergence and initiated the thunderstorm convections. Both cases showed a general agreement in time and space for the locations of maximum UHI, convergence, convection, and precipitation. Convection was found to be more favorable to developing in time periods and locations with stronger intensity of UHI. Analysis also showed that, due to the urban effects, both thunderstorms got strengthened when moving over Guangzhou City, with maximum radar echoes observed right over the urban area and precipitation located within the city. All these features reveal that two thunderstorms were urban-induced storms. Supported jointly by the R&D Infrastructure and Facility Developemnt Program (2003DIB4J145) from the Ministry of Science and Technology of China, Urban Meteorological Science Research Fund (UMRF200504) and the Open Research Fund from the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences     

Possible causes of the variation in fractal dimension of the perimeter during the tropical cyclone Dan motion

We calculated the fractal dimensions Db of the perimeter of tropical cyclone(TC)Dan based on the satellite GMS-5 infrared sensor images from 1800 UTC,1 October 1999 to 1200 UTC,9 October 1999.The fractal dimensions Db were used to characterize objectively the temporal change of TC complex structure.Our results show that the change of fractal dimension during TC Dan motion can be divided into three stages.The statistically significant difference does not exist either between Dm1 and DL or between Dm3 and DL,but it exists between Dm2 and DL,where Dmi denotes the mean value of Db in i-th stage(i=1,2 and3);DL denotes Lovejoy’s fractal dimension calculated based on satellite and radar data within the size range(1–1.2×106 km2),which is used as a"normal value"of the fractal dimension of the cumulus cloud perimeter for the global tropical region.TC Dan turns to the north from the west abruptly at the end of the second stage.The emergence of the second stage with high fractal dimensions may be viewed as a possible premonition for the track turning.Our results also show that there are two kinds of processes resulting in the translation from the first stage to the second stage.One is the interaction of TC circulation and an adjacent small scale convective cloud cluster,causing to the complexity increase of a local segment of the perimeter.The other includes the fragmentation of a strong convective area within the TC inner region,the self-organization of the small strong convective cloud clusters,the emergence,development,and merger of the small scale non-convective holes,and the formation of a gap of the perimeter,causing to the complexity increase of the whole TC perimeter.     

Geomorphological control on boulder transport and coastal erosion before,during and after an extreme extra‐tropical cyclone

Extreme wave events in coastal zones are principal drivers of geomorphic change. Evidence of boulder entrainment and erosional impact during storms is increasing. However, there is currently poor time coupling between pre‐ and post‐storm measurements of coastal boulder deposits. Importantly there are no data reporting shore platform erosion, boulder entrainment and/or boulder transport during storm events – rock coast dynamics during storm events are currently unexplored. Here, we use high‐resolution (daily) field data to measure and characterize coastal boulder transport before, during and after the extreme Northeast Atlantic extra‐tropical cyclone Johanna in March 2008. Forty‐eight limestone fine‐medium boulders (n = 46) and coarse cobbles (n = 2) were tracked daily over a 0.1 km² intertidal area during this multi‐day storm. Boulders were repeatedly entrained, transported and deposited, and in some cases broken down (n = 1) or quarried (n = 3), during the most intense days of the storm. Eighty‐one percent (n = 39) of boulders were located at both the start and end of the storm. Of these, 92% were entrained where entrainment patterns were closely aligned to wave parameters. These data firmly demonstrate rock coasts are dynamic and vulnerable under storm conditions. No statistically significant relationship was found between boulder size (mass) and net transport distance. Graphical analyses suggest that boulder size limits the maximum longshore transport distance but that for the majority of boulders lying under this threshold, other factors influence transport distance. Paired analysis of 20 similar sized and shaped boulders in different morphogenic zones demonstrates that geomorphological control affects entrainment and transport distance – where net transport distances were up to 39 times less where geomorphological control was greatest. These results have important implications for understanding and for accurately measuring and modelling boulder entrainment and transport. Coastal managers require these data for assessing erosion risk. © 2016 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

大气边界层研究进展

大气边界层对云和对流的发展、演变有重要作用.本文回顾了在大气边界层高度计算方法,边界层的时空分布特征、结构和发展机理,以及边界层参数化方案等方面的主要研究进展.大气边界层高度计算方法主要分为基于大气廓线观测数据计算和基于模式参数化方案计算两大类;大气边界层高度频率分布形态具有明显的日变化特征,并且稳定、中性和对流边界层高度的频率分布呈现出不同的Gamma分布特征;地面湿度状况对边界层发展影响明显,对于不同的下垫面热力性质和地形状况,大气边界层高度呈现出明显的空间差异,青藏高原边界层高度明显高于一般平原地区;在强烈的地面加热驱动下,对流边界层与残余层通过正反馈机制循环增长可以形成4000 m以上的超高大气边界层;研制大气边界层、浅对流以及云物理方案的统一参数化框架是未来数值预报模式的发展趋势.