The prediction of large explosions of andesitic volcanoes

During the large explosions of the Bezymianny (1956), Shiveluch (1964) and Mount St. Helens (1980) volcanoes, 4.8·10¹², 3.0·10¹² and 8.2·10¹² kg of resurgent and magmatic material were ejected respectively. The eruptions were preceded and accompanied by significant crustal deformations and by a great number of volcanic earthquakes. In all three cases, earthquakes with an energy of E = 10⁹ J occurred 8–11 days before the eruption; their foci were at a distance of less than 5 km from the floor of the active crater and the power of earthquake swarms increased continuously and monotonously until the beginning of the eruption. The data obtained on deformations, earthquakes and volcanic activity may be used for the prediction of the place, time, energy and hazards of large explosions of andesitic volcanoes.     

Real-time Seismic Amplitude Measurement (RSAM): a volcano monitoring and prediction tool

Seismicity is one of the most commonly monitored phenomena used to determine the state of a volcano and for the prediction of volcanic eruptions. Although several real-time earthquake-detection and data acquisition systems exist, few continuously measure seismic amplitude in circumstances where individual events are difficult to recognize or where volcanic tremor is prevalent. Analog seismic records provide a quick visual overview of activity; however, continuous rapid quantitative analysis to define the intensity of seismic activity for the purpose of predicing volcanic eruptions is not always possible because of clipping that results from the limited dynamic range of analog recorders. At the Cascades Volcano Observatory, an inexpensive 8-bit analog-to-digital system controlled by a laptop computer is used to provide 1-min average-amplitude information from eight telemetered seismic stations. The absolute voltage level for each station is digitized, averaged, and appended in near real-time to a data file on a multiuser computer system. Raw realtime seismic amplitude measurement (RSAM) data or transformed RSAM data are then plotted on a common time base with other available volcano-monitoring information such as tilt. Changes in earthquake activity associated with dome-building episodes, weather, and instrumental difficulties are recognized as distinct patterns in the RSAM data set. RSAM data for domebuilding episodes gradually develop into exponential increases that terminate just before the time of magma extrusion. Mount St. Helens crater earthquakes show up as isolated spikes on amplitude plots for crater seismic stations but seldom for more distant stations. Weather-related noise shows up as low-level, long-term disturbances on all seismic stations, regardless of distance from the volcano. Implemented in mid-1985, the RSAM system has proved valuable in providing up-to-date information on seismic activity for three Mount St. Helens eruptive episodes from 1985 to 1986 (May 1985, May 1986, and October 1986). Tiltmeter data, the only other telemetered geophysical information that was available for the three dome-building episodes, is compared to RSAM data to show that the increase in RSAM data was related to the transport of magma to the surface. Thus, if tiltmeter data is not available, RSAM data can be used to predict future magmatic eruptions at Mount St. Helens. We also recognize the limitations of RSAm data. Two examples of RSAM data associated with phreatic or shallow phreatomagmatic explosions were not preceded by the same increases in RSAM data or changes in tilt associated with the three dome-building eruptions.     

Caldera rim collapse: A hidden volcanic hazard

Following the emblematic flank collapse of Mount St Helens in 1981, numerous models of flank sliding have been proposed. These models have allowed to largely improve the understanding of mechanisms involved in such landslides, which represent a tremendous risk for populations living around volcanoes. In this article, a new mode of landslide formation, related to buried calderas, is described. The model emphasizes the paramount importance of the hidden ring fault that, even when the caldera is buried, still remains a plane of weakness in the core of the edifice. Under certain conditions, this plane of weakness becomes activated as the upper part of a pre-existing critical slip surface and is used in the emplacement of huge landslides which travel downslope at a very high velocity. A natural example is taken from Piton de la Fournaise Volcano (La Réunion Island, Indian Ocean). It reveals that the primary cause triggering caldera rim collapse is partial unbuttressing of the flank of the volcano. In the natural example, this occurs through regressive erosion that excavates deep canyon in the direction of the buried caldera but other mechanisms may exist. On account of the large volumes of material involved in caldera rim collapse as well as their long runout distances, such a volcanic hazard should be taken into account on every volcano where buried calderas are suspected.     

Some regularity in the process of re-awakening of andesite and dacite volcanoes: specific features of the 1982 El Chichón volcano,México reactivation

El Chichón volcano is an andesite stratovolcano in southern México. It erupted in March 1982, after about 550 years of quiescence. The 1982 eruption of El Chichón has not been followed by the growth of a lava dome within the newly formed crater. This is rather anomalous since the construction of a new dome after the destruction of an old one is a common process during the eruptions at andesite and dacite volcanoes. To discuss this anomalous aspect of the El Chichón eruption, some regularity in the process of re-awakening of dormant (here defined as a period of quiescence of more than 100 years) andesite and dacite volcanoes are studied based on the seismic activity recorded at the volcanoes Bezymianny, Mount St. Helens, El Chichón, Unzen, Pinatubo and Soufrière Hills. Three stages were identified in the re-awakening activity of these volcanoes: (1) preliminary seismic activity, leading up to the first phreatic explosion; (2) activity between the first and the largest explosions; (3) post-explosion dome-building process. The eruptions were divided into two groups: low-VEI (Volcanic Explosivity Index) and the long duration stage-1 events (Unzen, 1991 and Soufrière Hills volcano, 1995) and high-VEI and the short duration stage-1 events (Bezymianny, 1956; Mount St. Helens, 1980; El Chichón, 1982 and Pinatubo, 1992). The comparative analysis of the seismo-eruptive activity of two eruptions of the second group, the 1980 of Mt. St. Helens and the 1982 of El Chichón, produced an explanation the absence of new dome building during the 1982 eruption of El Chichón volcano. It may be explained in terms of the unusually rapid emission of gas and water from the magmatic and hydrothermal system beneath the volcano during a relatively short sequence of large explosions that could have sharply increased the viscosity of the magma making impossible its exit to the surface.     

Forecasts and predictions of eruptive activity at Mount St. Helens, USA: 1975–1984

Public statements about volcanic activity at Mount St. Helens include factual statements, forecasts, and predictions. A factual statement describes current conditions but does not anticipate future events. A forecast is a comparatively imprecise statement of the time, place, and nature of expected activity. A prediction is a comparatively precise statement of the time, place, and ideally, the nature and size of impending activity. A prediction usually covers a shorter time period than a forecast and is generally based dominantly on interpretations and measurements of ongoing processes and secondarily on a projection of past history. The three types of statements grade from one to another, and distinctions are sometimes arbitrary.Forecasts and predictions at Mount St. Helens became increasingly precise from 1975 to 1982. Stratigraphic studies led to a long-range forecast in 1975 of renewed eruptive activity at Mount St. Helens, possibly before the end of the century. On the basis of seismic, geodetic and geologic data, general forecasts for a landslide and eruption were issued in April 1980, before the catastrophic blast and landslide on 18 May 1980. All extrusions except two from June 1980 to the end of 1984 were predicted on the basis of integrated geophysical, geochemical, and geologic monitoring. The two extrusions that were not predicted were preceded by explosions that removed a substantial part of the dome, reducing confining pressure and essentially short-circuiting the normal precursors.     

Zonation of the main volcanic hazards (lava flows and ash fall) in Tenerife, Canary Islands. A proposal for a surveillance network

The island of Tenerife is volcanically complex, and its eruptive history predominantly reflects the processes and products of two different eruptive styles: (1) non-explosive effusions of basaltic lavas from fissure vents mostly aligned along two ridges; and (2) less frequent but explosive salic eruptions from central vents associated with the Las Cañadas volcanic edifice and associated summit caldera. We have taken into account this fundamental distinction to develop a volcanic-hazards zonation (for lava flows and ash fall only) that includes: definition of the principal hazards; identification of the areas that have higher probability of containing emission centres; and numerical modelling of the vulnerable areas to be affected by volcanic hazards. Not only does the volcanic-hazards zonation map provide emergency-management officials with an updated assessment of the volcanic hazards, but it also represents a starting point for the preparation of a volcanic risk map for Tenerife. Finally, the hazards-zonation map also furnishes the basis for the design of a proposed volcano surveillance network.     

Nonequilibrium flow in volcanic conduits and application to the eruptions of Mt. St. Helens on May 18, 1980, and Vesuvius in AD 79

A steady-state, one-dimensional, and nonhomogeneous two-phase flow model was developed for the prediction of local flow properties in volcanic conduits. The model incorporates the effects of relative velocity between the phases and for the variable magma viscosity. The resulting set of nonlinear differential equations was solved by a stiff numerical solver and the results were verified with the results of basaltic fissure eruptions obtained by a homogeneous two-phase flow model, before applying the model to the eruptions of Mt. St. Helens and Vesuvius volcanoes. This verification, and a study of the sensitivity of several modeling parameters, proved effective in establishing the confidence in the predicted nonequilibrium results of flow distribution in the conduits when the mass flow rate is critical or maximum. The application of the model to the plinian eruptions of Mt. St. Helens on May 18, 1980, and Vesuvius in AD 79, demonstrates the sensitivity of the magma discharge rate and distributions of pressure, volumetric fraction, and velocities of phases, on the hydrous magma viscosity feeding the volcanic conduits. Larger magma viscosities produce smaller mass discharge rates (or greater conduit diameters), smaller exit pressures, larger disequilibrium between the phases, and larger difference between the local lithostatic and fluid pressures in the conduit. This large pressure difference occurs when magma fragments and may cause a rupture of the conduit wall rocks, producing a closure of the conduit and cessation of the volcanic eruption, or water pouring into the conduit from underground aquifers leading to phreatomagmatic explosions. The motion of the magma fragmentation zone along a conduit during an eruption can be caused by the varying viscosity of magma feeding the volcanic conduit and may cause intermittent phreatomagmatic explosions during the plinian phases as different underground aquifers are activated at different depths. The variation of magma viscosity during the eruptions of Mt. St. Helens in 1980 and Vesuvius in AD 79 is normally associated with the tapping of magmas from different depths of the magma chambers. This variation of viscosity, which can include different crystal and dissolved water contents, can also produce conduit wall erosion, the onset and collapse of volcanic columns above the vent, and the onset and cessation of pyroclastic flows and surges.     

Volcanic hazards from Bezymianny- and Bandai-type eruptions

Major slope failures are a significant degradational process at volcanoes. Slope failures and associated explosive eruptions have resulted in more than 20 000 fatalities in the past 400 years; the historic record provides evidence for at least six of these events in the past century. Several historic debris avalanches exceed 1 km³ in volume. Holocene avalanches an order of magnitude larger have traveled 50–100 km from the source volcano and affected areas of 500–1500 km². Historic eruptions associated with major slope failures include those with a magmatic component (Bezymianny type) and those solely phreatic (Bandai type). The associated gravitational failures remove major segments of the volcanoes, creating massive horseshoe-shaped depressions commonly of caldera size. The paroxysmal phase of a Bezymianny-type eruption may include powerful lateral explosions and pumiceous pyroclastic flows; it is often followed by construction of lava dome or pyroclastic cone in the new crater. Bandai-type eruptions begin and end with the paroxysmal phase, during which slope failure removes a portion of the edifice. Massive volcanic landslides can also occur without related explosive eruptions, as at the Unzen volcano in 1792.The main potential hazards from these events derive from lateral blasts, the debris avalanche itself, and avalanche-induced tsunamis. Lateral blasts produced by sudden decompression of hydrothermal and/or magmatic systems can devastate areas in excess of 500km² at velocities exceeding 100 m s^–1. The ratio of area covered to distance traveled for the Mount St. Helens and Bezymianny lateral blasts exceeds that of many pyroclastic flows or surges of comparable volume. The potential for large-scale lateral blasts is likely related to the location of magma at the time of slope failure and appears highest when magma has intruded into the upper edifice, as at Mount St. Helens and Bezymianny.Debris avalanches can move faster than 100 ms^–1 and travel tens of kilometers. When not confined by valley walls, avalanches can affect wide areas beyond the volcano's flanks. Tsunamis from debris avalanches at coastal volcanoes have caused more fatalities than have the landslides themselves or associated eruptions. The probable travel distance (L) of avalanches can be estimated by considering the potential vertical drop (H). Data from a catalog of around 200 debris avalanches indicates that the H/L rations for avalanches with volumes of 0.1–1 km³ average 0.13 and range 0.09–0.18; for avalanches exceeding 1 km³, H/L ratios average 0.09 and range 0.5–0.13.Large-scale deformation of the volcanic edefice and intense local seismicity precede many slope failures and can indicate the likely failure direction and orientation of potential lateral blasts. The nature and duration of precursory activity vary widely, and the timing of slope faliure greatly affects the type of associated eruption. Bandai-type eruptions are particularly difficult to anticipate because they typically climax suddenly without precursory eruptions and may be preceded by only short periods of seismicity.     

An analysis of the earthquake time series at Mount St. Helens, Washington, in the framework of recent volcanic activity

The analysis of the earthquake time distribution at Mount St. Helens reveals a good correlation between the physical state of the volcano and statistical parameters of earthquake sequence. There are three main seismic phases in the whole 1980–1986 period. The first one precedes the main eruption of May 18, 1980. It begins with a sudden increase of the seismicity level in late March and continues with an Utsu (1961) type decay of the seismic occurrence rate, characterized by a small value of the decay coefficient, β. The second phase lasts from the cataclysmic eruption on May 18, 1980 until the continuous dome building episode in 1983 and is characterized by a very slow exponential increase of the background level of seismicity. The third phase covers the remaining part of the sample and is characterized by a stationary earthquake clustering process episodically interrupted by peaks of activity related to eruptions. The trends in seismic occurrence rate within each phase, as well as the statistical parameter variations at each transition, are analyzed and discussed in the framework of volcanic activity. This leads to the conclusion that statistical techniques may give a significant contribution in understanding changes in volcanic processes such as those at Mount St. Helens.     

A prehistoric lahar-dammed lake and eruption of Mount Pinatubo described in a Philippine aborigine legend

The prehistoric eruptions of Mount Pinatubo have followed a cycle: centuries of repose terminated by a caldera-forming eruption with large pyroclastic flows; a post-eruption aftermath of rain-triggered lahars in surrounding drainages and dome-building that fills the caldera; and then another long quiescent period. During and after the eruptions lahars descending along volcano channels may block tributaries from watersheds beyond Pinatubo, generating natural lakes. Since the 1991 eruption, the Mapanuepe River valley in the southwestern sector of the volcano has been the site of a large lahar-dammed lake. Geologic evidence indicates that similar lakes have occupied this site at least twice before. An Ayta legend collected decades before Mount Pinatubo was recognized as a volcano describes what is probably the younger of these lakes, and the caldera-forming eruption that destroyed it.     

Effects of forest land management on erosion and revegetation after the eruption of Mount St. Helens

The 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens covered soils with a tephra blanket and killed the forest tree cover in a 550 km² area. After the eruption, rates of sheetwash and rill erosion, and plant cover were measured on tephra-covered hillslopes which had been subject to three land-management practices: grass seeding; scarification, and salvage logging. On rapidly-eroding hillslopes subject to grass seeding, limited plant covers were established only after erosion had declined sharply. Logging of trees downed by the eruption and scarification of previously logged surfaces slowed erosion, although the effect was small because erosion rates had already slowed substantially by the time these two practices were implemented. The factors controlling erosion, revegetation, and their relative timing at Mount St. Helens are similar to those following explosive volcanic eruptions elsewhere, suggesting that grass seeding is not likely to be effective at slowing erosion following most tephra eruptions, and that early mechanical disturbance could be an effective erosion-control measure. The results also indicate that even without deliberate conservation measures, processes which mechanically disturb a surface layer of low hydraulic conductivity (such as frost-action or trampling) can radically reduce runoff and erosion before revegetation has an important effect.     

A remarkable pulse of large-scale volcanism on New Britain Island,Papua New Guinea

New studies of the deposits from the latest caldera-forming eruption (the “Dk” event) at Dakataua Volcano, New Britain Island, Papua New Guinea, help identify an intense space-time concentration of large-scale volcanism during the 7th century AD on New Britain. Radiocarbon dating of charcoal from the Dk deposits yields an age of 1,383 ± 28 BP. Calibration of this result gives an age in the range AD 635–670 (at 1 s. d.). At about the same time, two other volcanoes on New Britain, Rabaul and Witori, also produced very large eruptions. Very high acidity levels in ice cores from Antarctica and Greenland at AD 639 and AD 640 respectively may be linked to either or both of the Dakataua and Rabaul eruptions. Another ice core high acidity level, at AD 692, may be associated with the Witori eruption. Significant volcanic risk within the New Britain region is indicated by its Late Cenozoic history of relatively frequent large-scale eruptions from as many as 8 caldera systems within an arc-parallel zone about 380 km long. Over the last 20 ka the return period for major (VEI 5+) eruptions in this region was about 1.0 ka and individually high frequencies of major eruptive activity were experienced at Witori and Rabaul. The relatively short return period for major eruptions in the region would tend to increase the chance that such events could cluster in time.     

Evolution of Mount Fuji,Japan: Inference from drilling into the subaerial oldest volcano,pre‐Komitake

A buried, old volcanic body (pre‐Komitake Volcano) was discovered during drilling into the northeastern flank of Mount Fuji. The pre‐Komitake Volcano is characterized by hornblende‐bearing andesite and dacite, in contrast to the porphyritic basaltic rocks of Komitake Volcano and to the olivine‐bearing basaltic rocks of Fuji Volcano. K‐Ar age determinations and geological analysis of drilling cores suggest that the pre‐Komitake Volcano began with effusion of basaltic lava flows around 260 ka and ended with explosive eruptions of basaltic andesite and dacite magma around 160 ka. After deposition of a thin soil layer on the pre‐Komitake volcanic rocks, successive effusions of lava flows occurred at Komitake Volcano until 100 ka. Explosive eruptions of Fuji Volcano followed shortly after the activity of Komitake. The long‐term eruption rate of about 3 km³/ka or more for Fuji Volcano is much higher than that estimated for pre‐Komitake and Komitake. The chemical variation within Fuji Volcano, represented by an increase in incompatible elements at nearly constant SiO₂, differs from that within pre‐Komitake and other volcanoes in the northern Izu‐Bonin arc, where incompatible elements increase with increasing SiO₂. These changes in the volcanism in Mount Fuji may have occurred due to a change in regional tectonics around 150 ka, although this remains unproven.     

Hydrothermal calderas

The standard model of caldera formation is related to the emptying of a magma chamber and ensuing roof collapse during large eruptions or subsurface withdrawal. Although this model works well for numerous volcanoes, it is inappropriate for many basaltic volcanoes (with the notable exception of Hawaii), as these have eruptions that involve volumes of magma that are small compared to the collapse. Many arc volcanoes also have similar oversized depressions, such as Poas (Costa Rica) and Aoba (Vanuatu). In this article, we propose an alternative caldera model based on deep hydrothermal alteration of volcanic rocks in the central part of the edifice. Under certain conditions, the clay-rich altered and pressurized core may flow under its own weight, spread laterally, and trigger very large caldera-like collapse. Several specific mechanisms can generate the formation of such hydrothermal calderas. Among them, we identify two principal modes: mode 1: ripening with summit loading and flank spreading and mode II: unbuttressing with flank subsidence and flank sliding. Processes such as summit loading or flank subsidence may act simultaneously in hybrid mechanisms. Natural examples are shown to illustrate the different modes of formation. For ripening, we give Aoba (Vanuatu) as an example of probable summit loading, while Casita (Nicaragua) is the type example of flank spreading. For unbuttressing, Nuku Hiva Island (Marquesas) is our example for flank subsidence and Piton de la Fournaise (La Réunion) is our example of flank sliding. The whole process is slow and probably needs (a) at least a few tens of thousands of years to deeply alter the edifice and reach conditions suitable for ductile flow and (b) a few hundred years to achieve the caldera collapse. The size and the shape of the caldera strictly mimic that of the underlying weak core. Thus, the size of the caldera is not controlled by the dimensions of the underlying magma reservoir. A collapsing hydrothermal caldera could generate significant phreatic activity and trigger major eruptions from a coexisting magmatic complex. As the buildup to collapse is slow, such caldera-forming events could be detected long before their onset.     

Causes and mobility of large volcanic landslides: application to Tenerife, Canary Islands

Giant volcanic landslides are one of the most hazardous geological processes due to their volume and velocity. Since the 1980 eruption and associated debris avalanche of Mount St. Helens hundreds of similar events have been recognised worldwide both on continental volcanoes and volcanic oceanic islands. However, the causes and mobility of these enormous mass movements remain unresolved. Tenerife exhibits three voluminous subaerial valleys and a wide offshore apron of landslide debris produced by recurrent flank failures with ages ranging from Upper Pliocene to Middle Pleistocene. We have selected the La Orotava landslide for analysis of its causes and mobility using a variety of simple numerical models. First, the causes of the landslide have been evaluated using Limit Equilibrium Method and 2D Finite Difference techniques. Conventional parameters including hydrostatic pore pressure and material strength properties, together with three external processes, dike intrusion, caldera collapse and seismicity, have been incorporated into the stability models. The results indicate that each of the external mechanism studied is capable of initiating slope failures. However, we propose that a combination of these processes may be the most probable cause for giant volcanic landslides. Second, we have analysed the runout distance of the landslide using a simple model treating both the subaerial and submarine parts of the sliding path. The effect of the friction coefficient, drag forces and hydroplaning has been incorporated into the model. The results indicate that hydroplaning particularly can significantly increase the mobility of the landslide, which may reach runout distances greater than 70 km. The models presented are not considered definite and have mainly a conceptual purpose. However, they provide a physical basis from which to better interpret these complex geologic phenomena and should be taken into account in the prediction of future events and the assessment of landslide related hazards.     

The respiratory health hazards of volcanic ash: a review for volcanic risk mitigation

Studies of the respiratory health effects of different types of volcanic ash have been undertaken only in the last 40 years, and mostly since the eruption of Mt. St. Helens in 1980. This review of all published clinical, epidemiological and toxicological studies, and other work known to the authors up to and including 2005, highlights the sparseness of studies on acute health effects after eruptions and the complexity of evaluating the long-term health risk (silicosis, non-specific pneumoconiosis and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) in populations from prolonged exposure to ash due to persistent eruptive activity. The acute and chronic health effects of volcanic ash depend upon particle size (particularly the proportion of respirable-sized material), mineralogical composition (including the crystalline silica content) and the physico-chemical properties of the surfaces of the ash particles, all of which vary between volcanoes and even eruptions of the same volcano, but adequate information on these key characteristics is not reported for most eruptions. The incidence of acute respiratory symptoms (e.g. asthma, bronchitis) varies greatly after ashfalls, from very few, if any, reported cases to population outbreaks of asthma. The studies are inadequate for excluding increases in acute respiratory mortality after eruptions. Individuals with pre-existing lung disease, including asthma, can be at increased risk of their symptoms being exacerbated after falls of fine ash. A comprehensive risk assessment, including toxicological studies, to determine the long-term risk of silicosis from chronic exposure to volcanic ash, has been undertaken only in the eruptions of Mt. St. Helens (1980), USA, and Soufrière Hills, Montserrat (1995 onwards). In the Soufrière Hills eruption, a long-term silicosis hazard has been identified and sufficient exposure and toxicological information obtained to make a probabilistic risk assessment for the development of silicosis in outdoor workers and the general population. A more systematic approach to multi-disciplinary studies in future eruptions is recommended, including establishing an archive of ash samples and a website containing health advice for the public, together with scientific and medical study guidelines for volcanologists and health-care workers.     

Earthquake swarms on Mount Erebus, Antarctica

Mount Erebus (3794 m), located on Ross Island in McMurdo Sound, is one of the few active volcanoes in Antartica. A high-sensitivity seismic network has been operated by Japanese and US parties on and around the Volcano since December, 1980. The results of these observations show two kinds of seismic activity on Ross Island: activity concentrated near the summit of Mount Erebus associated with Strombolian eruptions, and micro-earthquake activity spread through Mount Erebus and the surrounding area.Seismicity on Mount Erebus has been quite high, usually exceeding 20 volcanic earthquakes per day. They frequently occur in swarms with daily counts exceeding 100 events.Sixteen earthquake swarms with more than 250 events per day were recorded by the seismic network during the three year period 1982–1984, and three notable earthquake swarms out of the sixteen were recognized, in October, 1982 (named 82-C), March–April, 1984 (84-B) and July, 1984 (84-F).Swarms 84-B and 84-F have a large total number of earthquakes and large Ishimoto-Iida's “m”; hence these two swarms are presumed to constitute on one of the precursor phenomena to the new eruption, which took place on 13 September, 1984, and lasted a few months.     

Eruptive history of the Colima volcanic complex (Mexico)

The evolution of the Colima volcanic complex can be divided into successive periods characterized by different dynamic and magmatic processes: emission of andesitic to dacitic lava flows, acid-ash and pumice-flow deposits, fallback nuées ardentes leading to pyroclastic flows with heterogeneous magma, plinian air-fall deposits, scoriae cones of alkaline and calc-alkaline nature. Four caldera-forming events, resulting either from major ignimbrite outbursts or Mount St. Helens-type eruptions, separate the main stages of development of the complex from the building of an ancient shield volcano (25 × 30 km wide) up to two summit cones, Nevado and Fuego.The oldest caldera, C1 (7–8 km wide), related to the pouring out of dacitic ash flows, marks the transition between two periods of activity in the primitive edifice called Nevado I: the first one, which is at least 0.6 m.y. old, was mainly andesitic and effusive, whereas the second one was characterized by extrusion of domes and related pyroclastic products. A small summit caldera, C2 (3–3.5 km wide), ended the evolution of Nevado I.Two modern volcanoes then began to grow. The building of the Nevado II started about 200,000 y. ago. It settled into the C2 caldera and partially overflowed it. The other volcano, here called Paleofuego, was progressively built on the southern side of the former Nevado I. Some of its flows are 50,000 y. old, but the age of its first outbursts is not known. However, it is younger than Nevado II. These two modern volcanoes had similar evolutions. Each of them was affected by a huge Mount St. Helens-type (or Bezymianny-type) event, 10,000 y. ago for the Paleofuego, and hardly older for the Nevado II. The landslides were responsible for two horseshoe-shaped avalanche calderas, C3 (Nevado) and C4 (Paleofuego), each 4–5 km wide, opening towards the east and the south. In both cases, the activity following these events was highly explosive and produced thick air-fall deposits around the summit craters.The Nevado III, formed by thick andesitic flows, is located close to the southwestern rim of the C3 caldera. It was a small and short-lived cone. Volcan de Fuego, located at the center of the C4 caldera, is nearly 1500 m high. Its activity is characterized by an alternation of long stages of growth by flows and short destructive episodes related to violent outbursts producing pyroclastic flows with heterogeneous magma and plinian air falls.The evolution of the primitive volcano followed a similar pattern leading to formation of C1 and then C2. The analogy between the evolutions of the two modern volcanoes (Nevado II–III; Paleofuego-Fuego) is described. Their vicinity and their contemporaneous growth pose the problem of the existence of a single reservoir, or two independent magmatic chambers, after the evolution of a common structure represented by the primitive volcano.     

Stratigraphic framework of Holocene volcaniclastic deposits, Akutan Volcano, east-central Aleutian Islands, Alaska

 Akutan Volcano is one of the most active volcanoes in the Aleutian arc, but until recently little was known about its history and eruptive character. Following a brief but sustained period of intense seismic activity in March 1996, the Alaska Volcano Observatory began investigating the geology of the volcano and evaluating potential volcanic hazards that could affect residents of Akutan Island. During these studies new information was obtained about the Holocene eruptive history of the volcano on the basis of stratigraphic studies of volcaniclastic deposits and radiocarbon dating of associated buried soils and peat. A black, scoria-bearing, lapilli tephra, informally named the "Akutan tephra," is up to 2 m thick and is found over most of the island, primarily east of the volcano summit. Six radiocarbon ages on the humic fraction of soil A-horizons beneath the tephra indicate that the Akutan tephra was erupted approximately 1611 years B.P. At several locations the Akutan tephra is within a conformable stratigraphic sequence of pyroclastic-flow and lahar deposits that are all part of the same eruptive sequence. The thickness, widespread distribution, and conformable stratigraphic association with overlying pyroclastic-flow and lahar deposits indicate that the Akutan tephra likely records a major eruption of Akutan Volcano that may have formed the present summit caldera. Noncohesive lahar and pyroclastic-flow deposits that predate the Akutan tephra occur in the major valleys that head on the volcano and are evidence for six to eight earlier Holocene eruptions. These eruptions were strombolian to subplinian events that generated limited amounts of tephra and small pyroclastic flows that extended only a few kilometers from the vent. The pyroclastic flows melted snow and ice on the volcano flanks and formed lahars that traveled several kilometers down broad, formerly glaciated valleys, reaching the coast as thin, watery, hyperconcentrated flows or water floods. Slightly cohesive lahars in Hot Springs valley and Long valley could have formed from minor flank collapses of hydrothermally altered volcanic bedrock. These lahars may be unrelated to eruptive activity. Received: 31 August 1998 / Accepted: 30 January 1999     

Monitoring and prediction of volcanic activity in Kamchatka from seismological data: 2000–2010

Seismological Observations in Kamchatka were significantly improved due to the installation of new telemetered seismic stations near active volcanoes and the implementation of modern digital technologies for data transmission, acquisition, and processing in 1996–1998. This qualitative leap forward made it possible, not only to create an effective system for monitoring Kamchatka volcanoes and for timely and reliable assessment of the state of these volcanoes, but also to draw conclusions about volcanic hazard. The experience that was gained allowed us to make successful short-term forecasts for eight moderate explosive eruptions on Bezymyannyi Volcano of the ten that have occurred in 2004–2010, successful intermediate-term forecasts of evolving activity on Klyuchevskoi Volcano in three cases, as well as providing a successful forecast of an explosive eruption on Kizimen Volcano.