华北地区地震分布多标度分形特征的初步研究

依据“固定质量法”的定义及原理,本文给出了一种判断地震空间分布分形结构及计算D_q的方法。利用该方法对华北地区地震的空间分布特征进行了初步研究。结果表明,在满足一定的统计条件下,不同区域范围内、不同时间段的地震分布均具有分形结构。围绕海城、唐山大震区分别选择4个大小不同的区域,分不同时段计算其D_q—q谱。结果表明,强震前后其形态无显著变化。强震前在较大的区域范围内,D_o值有降低的趋势,震后回升;在震源区周围较小区域内,D_o的变化相反;而有的区域强震前后D_o值没有变化。     

1976年黑山,砣矶二次震群多分形特征研究

依据“固定半径法”的定义及原理,对１９７６年黑山、砣矶震群的时间结构的广义维数Ｄｑ－１和标度指数谱ｆ（ａ）－ａ曲线的特征进行了初步研究。结果表明二次前兆震群表现出各自的特征,即砣矶震群地震时间多分形结果出现剧变型异常、其表征为ｑ为负值时Ｄｑ值大,ｑ为正值时Ｄｑ减小且变化幅度大。与此同时,ｆ（ａ）两端下降,ａ跨度也较大,而黑山震群地震时间多分形结构没有出现明显异常,Ｄｑ－ｑ曲线平缓,ｆ（ａ）－ａ谱曲     

地震活动多标度分形特征及预报应用

探讨了多标度分形在刻划复杂系统方面的优越性,研究了江苏及邻区1970年以来的5.5级以上地震的多标度分形特征,着重研究了地震前后多标度分形的广义维数谱和奇异性谱.研究结果表明:所有震例的广义维数谱和奇异性谱均经历了远离地震时、异常出现时和异常消失时的三个特征变化阶段;异常出现的时间在震前半年至一年半内;多数震例异常在震前几个月内回返恢复,少数在震后数个月内恢复.上述结果说明利用地震时序的多标度分形特征对于该地区的半年至一年尺度的中强地震预报是有意义的.     

用去趋势涨落分析研究北京气候的长程变化特征

无标度性广泛存在于自然界系统包括气候系统中,其特征之一是可观测量存在幂函数关系,它揭示了气候系统的复杂性.为探索气候可预测性的客观基础,运用去趋势涨落分析(DFA)方法对北京1870～2003 年平均气温和1725～2003年降水序列进行了分析.结果表明,北京年平均气温和降水量均可划分为多个标度不变区域.在特定的标度域内,它们都表现出正长程相关的性质,为制作年际与年代际气候预测提供了理论基础.     

地震多重分形标度指数谱f(α)的研究

本文简要介绍了描述多重分形的标度指数谱f(α)的直接计算方法和简要推导过程。应用该方法分析处理了渤海和唐山地震区地震时间序列资料,结果表明,用f(α)谱能较好地全面描述地震时间分布这类不均匀分形。根据f(α)谱的异常形态,可以对大震进行监测预报。     

台湾地区地震活动的时间多分形特征研究

利用板块构造、活断层分布、地壳运动这三个方面的最新资料将台湾地区划分为东、西两个地震区和六个地震带。对各地震带11a来的地震目录计算了广义维数Dq和多标度分形谱f(α)，然后绘制成Dq—q曲线和多标度分形谱f(α)—α以及分维时程曲线。综合分析后发现：(1)地震活动的时间结构是多分形而非单一分形结构；(2)台湾地区在大震前后的1～2a内，大震所在的地震带内地震时间结构的Dq—q曲线和多标度分形谱f(α)—α大都出现异常形态；(3)功时程曲线分析可以为强震的时间预报提供有效的客观依据。     

2011年日本东北大地震特低频地磁信号的分形标度特征研究

本文选择2011年3月11日M9.0日本东北大地震震中附近三个地磁台站16个月(2010/01/01—2011/04/30)的特低频地磁观测资料,采用去倾扰动分析方法,得到了这三个台站地磁记录的非均匀标度特征随时间的变化,提出了一种能反映地磁三分量非均匀标度特征同步变化的指标,并据此探讨了特低频地磁信号分形标度特征变化与日本东北大地震之间的可能关联性,初步结果表明,这三个台站的特低频地磁信号分形标度特征指标在日本东北大地震前25~50天左右呈现出同步的异常增加,基于磁静日观测资料的随机合成地磁数据的统计检验结果可知前述异常并非随机异常,而是一种具有统计显著性的异常,可能反映了日本东北大地震对周边地磁信号内在的非线性系统特征产生了有统计意义的影响.     

辽宁地区地震活动空间分布的多重分形

通过辽宁地区地震活动资料,根据地震活动在空间中的分布演化特征,由多重分形理论及计算方法详细地研究了该地区地震活动的基本特点．结果显示,辽宁地区地震活动在空间上的增长演化及分布过程是多重分形结构,(q)-q曲线、f()谱及其它一些参量在几次中、强地震前后的明显变化,较好地描述了地震活动的分形增长过程的整体演化特征．     

3D multi-fractal analysis of porous media using 3D digital images: considerations for heterogeneity evaluation

Pore structure heterogeneity is a critical parameter controlling mechanical, electrical and flow transport behaviour of rock. Multi-fractal analysis method was used for a heterogeneity comparison of three-dimensional rock samples with different lithology. Six real digital samples, containing three sandstones and three carbonates, were used. Based on the mercury injection capillary pressure test on these samples, we found that the carbonate samples are more heterogeneous than sandstones, but primary results of multi-fractal behaviours for all samples were similar. We show that if multi-fractal is used to evaluate and compare heterogeneity of different samples, one needs to follow some considerations such as (1) all samples must have the same size in pixel, (2) samples volume must be bigger than representative volume element, (3) multi-fractal dimensions should be firstly normalized to a determined porosity value and (4) multi-fractal results should be interpreted based on resolution of the imaging tool (effects of fine scale sub-resolution pores are missed). Results revealed that using normalized fractal dimensions, the real samples were divided to less and high heterogeneous groups. Moreover, the study of scale effect also showed that porous structures of these samples are scale invariant in a wide range of scales (from one to eight times bigger).     

The value of large-scale climate variables in climate change assessment: The case of Botswana’s rainfall

Climate change is expected to alter rainfall regimes across most parts of the world. The implications of this could be more severe in arid environments where rainfall is limited and highly variable in space and time. However, lack of good quality data, of sufficient record length and spatial coverage usually restricts model development and performance geared towards assessing the effects of climate change in these areas. This paper presents an analysis of rainfall and climate data in order to determine the time of change in rainfall series and identify possible correlations between rainfall and temperature. In addition, the paper aims to make predictions of future rainfall patterns in Botswana. This is achieved by using historical rainfall and climate data from rainfall stations spread across Botswana from 1965 to 2008. In addition, large scale reanalysis data from NCAR/NCEP and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) data were used to augment the limited observed spatial climate data series when developing a rainfall model. Temperature and ENSO indices have been used to predict rainfall regimes for the present climate. Based on these, the effects of climate change were quantified using a stochastic generalised linear rainfall model (GLM) driven by outputs of global climate models (GCMs). The results indicate that temperature is a significant rainfall predictor in Botswana compared to ENSO indices.     

The Precision Estimate of Multi-Fractal Methods of Time Sequence of Earthquakes

At present,there are many methods of calculating seismic time-fractal.However,there isn’t aquantitative result about the precision of every method.So,in this Paper,we use the digitalimitation of theoretic model to solve precision estimate problems of calculating the precision ofone dimension distribution of theoretic models with Cantor multi-fractal set,we obtained someresults as follows:(1)There exists many problems such as rules,numbers of samples,basicpoint selection,the diffence resulted from different methods and so on.(2)The fixed-massmethod(MAS)and the minimal spanning tree method(MST)can give good structure charac-teristics with different q value,while the counting-boxes method can’t.And the error of thefixed-radius method(RAD)in the range of-q is too big.(3)There are scale problems of rulesfor multi-fractal,it is objective reflection for non-rule area.(4)MST has the boundary prob-lem,while MAS and RAD don’t.(5)With increasing sample number,the precision of allfractal-dimension values becomes     

The minimal spanning tree method for calculating seismic multi-fractal

IntroductionEarthquake occurrence is resulted from the movement of the Earth's crust and the fr~re ofrock. It is a phenomenon of instability and self-organized criticality. It is possible that the phenomenon only occurs in non-linear syStem. As a pat of non-linear science, the fractal thatfounded by Mandelbrot in 1977 pioneered a new way tO solve inhomogeneous and complex phenomenon and offered a new tool. Some natural or social phenomena seem difficult to deal withbecause they are disordere…     

The scaling characteristics of remotely-sensed variables for sparsely-vegetated heterogeneous landscapes

With increasing interest in airborne and satellite-based sensors for mapping regional and global energy balance, there is a need to determine the uncertainty involved in aggregating remotely-sensed variables [surface temperature (T_k) and reflectance (π)] and surface energy fluxes [sensible (H) and latent (λE) heat flux] over large areas. This uncertainty is directly related to two factors: (1) the nonlinearity of the relation between the sensor signal and T_k, π, H orλE; and (2) the heterogeneity of the site. In this study, we compiled several remotely-sensed data sets acquired at different locations within a semi-arid rangeland in Arizona, at a variety of spatial and temporal resolutions. These data sets provided the range of data heterogeneities necessary for an extensive analysis of data aggregation. The general technique to evaluate uncertainty was to compare remotely-sensed variables and energy balance components calculated in two ways: first, calculated at the pixel resolution and averaged to the coarser resolution; and second, calculated directly at the coarse resolution by aggregating the fine-resolution data to the coarse scale. Results showed that the error in the aggregation of T_k and π was negligible for a wide range of conditions. However, the error in aggregation of H and λE was highly influenced by the heterogeneity of the site. Errors in H larger than 50% were possible under certain conditions. The conditions associated with the largest aggregation errors in H were:

• sites which are composed of a mix of stable and unstable conditions;

• sites which have considerable variations in aerodynamic roughness, especially for highly unstable conditions where the difference between surface and air temperature is large; and

• sites which are characterized by patch vegetation, where the pixel resolution is less than or nearly-equal to the diameter of the vegetation ‘element’ (in most cases, the diameter of the dominant vegetation type or vegetation patch).

Thus, knowledge of the surface heterogeneity is essential for minimizing error in aggregation of H and λE. Two schemes are presented for quantifying surface heterogeneity as a first step in data aggregation. These results emphasized the need for caution in aggregation of energy balance components over heterogeneous landscapes with sparse or mixed vegetation types.     

The links between the categorised Southern Oscillation indicators and climate and hydrologic variables in Turkey

Some previous global and regional studies have indicated teleconnection between the extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation (SO) and Turkish climate and hydrologic variables; however, they failed to suggest a strong correlation structure. In this study, categorised Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and Multivariate ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) index (MEI) series were used to examine the far‐reaching effects of the SO on temperature, precipitation and streamflow patterns in Turkey. These SO indicators were categorised into five subgroups according to their empirical distributions. Correlations between the categorised SO indicators and three analysis variables were computed using the Spearman's rho from lag‐0 to lag‐4. Significance of calculated correlations was tested at the 0·01 level for station‐based analysis and at the 0·05 level for regional analysis. Temperature records demonstrated significant correlations with the categorised SOI and MEI in nearly half of the entire stations. For some categories, precipitation and streamflow were found to be correlated with the SO indicators in some stations mainly in western Turkey. Regional analyses of temperature and precipitation revealed a clear and strong correlation structure with the categorised SO indicators on a large portion of Turkey. This was not concluded by the earlier pertinent studies. Besides, this study showed that significant correlations were obtained not only for the SO extreme phases (namely, El Nino and La Nina) but also for neutral and moderate phases of the SO. Plausible explanations for the observed teleconnection are presented. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

植被电磁散射的半空间模型研究

本文给出了地面植被电磁散射的半空间模型研究方法.在以往的相关文献中,均采用自由空间格林函数求解单个叶片散射体的散射场,本文利用半空间并矢格林函数求出了单个散射体的散射场,然后运用Monte Carlo方法模拟生成地面植被层,得到了在半空间下植被层的电磁散射特性,计算出了单、双站雷达散射截面,并与自由空间下的散射场做了相互对比.结果表明,在半空间格林函数下得到的散射场更为适用于描述地面植被的电磁散射特性.     

Scaling characteristics of spatial patterns of soil moisture from distributed modelling

Characterizing the spatial dynamics of soil moisture fields is a key issue in hydrology, offering an avenue to improve our understanding of complex land surface–atmosphere interactions. In this paper, the statistical structure of soil moisture patterns is examined using modelled soil moisture obtained from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) at 0.125° resolution. The study focuses on the vertically averaged soil moisture in the top 10 cm and 100 cm layers. The two variables display a weak dependence for lower values of surface soil moisture, with the strength of the relationship increasing with the water content of the top layer. In both cases, the variance of the soil moisture follows a power law decay as a function of the averaging area. The superficial layer shows a lower degree of spatial organization and higher temporal variability, which is reflected in rapid changes in time of the slope of the scaling functions of the soil moisture variance. Conversely, the soil moisture in the top 100 cm has lower variability in time and larger spatial correlation. The scaling of these patterns was found to be controlled by the changes in the soil water content. Results have implications for the downscaling of soil moisture to prevent model bias.     

北京地区夏季城市气候趋势和环境效应的分析研究

本文利用1994～2003年北京市11个气象台站的7、8月夏季常规地面观测资料,并结合中国科学院大气物理研究所325m高铁塔观测资料,分析了近10年的城市化进程对北京市夏季城市气候造成的影响. 结果表明,各气象要素变化都突现了城市化进程的影响：(1)城区相对湿度较郊区明显偏小,呈现一“干岛”特征,且相对湿度呈逐年下降趋势;(2)降水方面,近10年来,北京市的夏季降水量逐年下降非常明显;(3)平均日蒸发量和日照时数城区大于郊区;(4)虽然城区能见度明显小于郊区,但总体来讲,1999年以后,北京地区的能见度趋好;(5)地温同样存在城市热岛现象;(6)北京地区35℃以上高温天数基本呈增多趋势,且城区高温天数明显多于郊区;(7)边界层强逆温的存在有利于城市夏季强热岛的出现.