基于地理分区与FLUS模型的城市扩张模拟与预警

城市的快速扩张不断改变着土地资源的转化,带来了诸多生态环境问题。分析和模拟城市扩张的机制,并对城市未来土地利用变化的风险进行预警,利于合理调控城市的发展。本文提出了一种基于地理分区和未来用地模拟(Future Land Use Simulation,FLUS)模型的城市扩张模拟模型,用于模拟和预测复杂的土地利用变化。该模型利用多指标数据进行空间聚类,耦合地理分区结果进行城市扩张模拟。珠江三角洲2005-2015年的城市扩张模拟结果显示,分区下的模拟精度(FoM=0.2329,提高了9%)明显高于未分区,说明不同分区在土地利用转化上存在空间差异,该模型能更有效地模拟城市土地利用变化。另外,本文构建了一种城市扩张预警指标评价体系,用于评估城市扩张的警情。根据在2005-2015基础上预测的2025-2045年土地利用变化结果,对珠江三角洲城市扩张进行多尺度预警分析。综合预警结果显示该区域大部分城市至2045年城市扩张警情将达到中警和重警,其中东莞警情一直维持在重警。由此,未来需要加强对珠三角城市扩张的宏观调控,以此来缓解未来城市扩张的警情。     

Clay mineral distribution in surface sediments of the South China Sea and its significance for in sediment sources and transport

Clay minerals of surface sediments in the South China Sea (SCS) are analyzed with X-ray diffraction, and their transport is explored with a grain size trend analysis (GSTA) model. Results show that clay mineral types in various sedimentary environments have different sediment sources and transport routes. Sediments in the northern SCS (north of 20°N) between the southwest of Taiwan Island and the outer mouth of the Pearl River have high contents of illite and chlorite, which are derived mainly from sediments on Taiwan Island and/or the Yangtze River. Sediments from the Pearl River are characterized by high kaolinite and low smectite content, and most are distributed in the area between the mouth of the Pearl River and northeast of Hainan Island and transported vertically from the continental shelf to the slope. Characterized by high illite content, sediments from Kalimantan Island are transported toward the Nansha Trough. Sediments from Luzon Island are related with volcanic materials, and are transported westwards according to smectite distribution. On the Sunda Shelf, sediments from the Mekong River are transported southeast in the north while sediments from the Indonesian islands are transported northward in the south. Ascertaining surface sediment sources and their transport routes will not only improve understanding of modern transportation and depositional processes, but also aid paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic analysis of the SCS.     

高铁影响下的珠江三角洲城市群经济空间格局的多维度分析

深入研究高铁对珠江三角洲（简称珠三角）城市群区域经济空间格局的影响,对挖掘高铁与区域经济耦合关系具有一定的科学价值。本文基于2010、2014、2018年珠三角地区城市面板数据,从区域经济联系、区域优势潜力及区域经济空间平稳性3个维度,运用引力模型、区位优势潜力模型、Theil系数等技术模型和方法,综合测度高铁对珠三角城市群区域经济空间格局的影响。研究结果表明：① 珠三角城市间经济联系强度随年份的递增而呈现上升的趋势,南北向联系强于东西向联系,并逐渐出现1个经济联系核心区、3个经济联系副关联区和1个经济增长辐射区;② 珠三角市际间区位优势潜力差距逐渐拉大,其中东莞、中山等经济实力较强、城市地域规模、人口规模较小且地理位置优越的二三线城市在高铁运营过程中获得更大的利益;③ 从珠三角区域经济整体差异性来看,区域经济空间格局异质性呈先扩大后缩小趋势;从区内群体差异性来看,一二线城市之间经济发展水平差异呈先大幅上升后小幅下降趋势;二三线城市之间经济发展水平差异呈下降趋势。该研究将对未来交通规划提供参考。     

基于耗费距离的公路网络路径分析模型研究——以珠江三角洲公路网为例

栅格数据模型的最优路径分析方法是在综合考虑通行时间、通行资费等多种影响因素的基础上,通过计算最小累加费用值来确定最优路径。本文以珠江三角洲公路网为例,系统介绍了公路网和公路行车速度的模拟技术,以及基于栅格等级公路网的最小行车时间及行车资费的分析方法,并计算珠江三角主要城市间的最短行车路线。     

基于DMSP-OLS与NPP-VIIRS整合数据的中国三大城市群城市空间扩展时空格局

通过拟合最优幂函数模型,将NPP-VIIRS影像模拟为DMSP-OLS影像,构建了京津冀、长江三角洲（简称长三角）和珠江三角洲（简称珠三角）三大城市群1992—2017年长时间序列夜间灯光影像集。参考城市建成区统计数据确定夜间灯光最佳阈值提取城市范围,有效剥离统计数据中包含的经济活力不足的城市空间,识别出不属于统计范围的低等级、高活力城镇区,创新了数据应用视角。研究表明：① 县级城镇和市级以上城市对三大城市群城市范围的贡献度不同。京津冀腹地广阔,县级城镇是区域经济活力的重要组成部分,整体上贡献度最大;1990s初期长三角部分县级城镇经济活力较强,大量撤县设市后县级城镇数量减少,逐渐在2005年后低于京津冀;珠三角受到社会经济发展条件和行政单元划分的影响,县级城镇对城市范围的贡献在3个城市群中始终最小。② 三大城市群城市扩展非均衡性特征存在差异。京津冀城市扩展为京、津主导下的“双核”模式,非均衡性显著,尚未形成完善的城市规模体系;长三角和珠三角城市集聚特征明显,均衡性更强。重心迁移的路径、方向和距离反映各城市群不同的扩展强度和作用模式。③ 城市空间扩展格局整体均呈现热点区不断扩大、冷点区不断缩小的特征。其中京津冀热点和冷点区相对稳定,热点区向心集聚作用较强;长三角和珠三角空间格局变化较大,区域核心城市带动作用较强。     

Crustal structure revealed by a deep seismic sounding profile of Baijing-Gaoming-Jinwan in the Pearl River Delta

The Pearl River Estuary area, located in the middle part of the southern China coastal seismic belt, has long been considered a potential source of strong earthquakes above magnitude 7.0. To scientifically assess the potential strong earthquake risk in this area, a three-dimensional artificial seismic sounding experiment, consisting of a receiving array and seabed seismograph, was performed to reveal the deep crustal structure in this region. We used artificial ship-borne air-gun excitation shots as sources, and fixed and mobile stations as receivers to record seismic data from May to August 2015. This paper presents results along a line from the western side of the Pearl River Estuary to the western side of the Baijing-Gaoming-Jinwan profile. A two-dimensional velocity structure was constructed using seismic travel-time tomography. The inversion results show that the Moho depth is 27 km in the coastal area and 30 km in the northwest of the Pearl River Estuary area, indicating that the crust thins from land to sea. Two structural discontinuities and multiple low-velocity anomalies appear in the crustal section. Inside both discontinuity zones, a low-velocity layer, with a minimum velocity of 6.05 km s~(-1), exists at a depth of about 15 km, and another, with a minimum velocity of 6.37 km s~(-1), exists at a depth of about 21.5 km between the middle and lower crust. These low velocities suggest that the discontinuities may consist of partly molten material. Earthquakes with magnitudes higher than 5.0 occurred in the low-velocity layer along the profile. The deep Kaiping-Enping fault, rooted in the crust, may be one of the most important channels for deep material upwelling and is related to tectonic movement since the Cretaceous in the Pearl River Delta tectonic rift basin.     

Seasonal variations of riverine organic carbon contents in Makou and Hekou gauge stations of the Zhujiang River, China

Water samples were collected and analyzed in high water season (July 1997) and in middle water season (October, 1997) from two main lower reach gauge stations of the Zhujiang (Pearl) River, namely Hekou and Makou, respectively. Content of particulate organic carbon is always higher than that of dissolved organic carbon in both seasons, which is obviously different from the global average pattern, i.e. dissolved organic carbon is the dominant component of the transported riverine organic carbon. The content of dissolved and particulate organic carbon changes with the water levels in a direct ratio. The percentage of organic carbon in total suspended substance changes with the content of total suspended substance in an inverse ratio. The more intense is the soil erosion in the drainage, the more concentrated is the riverine organic carbon in the river. The contribution of autochthonous organic carbon is large in high water season than in middle water season. Fundation item: This project was supported financially by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 49901002), the key funds of resources and eco-environmental research of the CAS (No. KZ952-J1-402), a funds of the state key laboratory of organic geochemistry, and Guangdong Province Science Funds (No. 984131). Biography: Gao Quan-zhou (1965 —), male, a native of Anhui Province, associate professor. His research interests are geomorphology and Quaternary geochemistry.     

KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY OF REMOTELY SENSED DATA FROM ECOLOGICAL VIEW ——A Case Study of Urban Spatial—temporal Relationship in the Pearl River Delta

From the ecological viewpoint this paper discusses the urban spatial-temporal relationship.We take regional towns and cities as a complex man-land system of urban eco-community,This complex man-land system comprises two elements of “man“ and “land“,Here,“man“ means organization with self-determined consciousness,and “land“ means the physical environment (niche ) that “man “depends on .The complex man-land system has three basic components,They are individual,population and community,Therefore there are six types of spatial relationship for the complex man-land system.They are individual,population,community,man-man,land-land and man-land spatial realtionships,Taking the Pearl(Zhujiang) River Delta as a case study,the authors found some evidence of the urban spatial relationship from the remote sensing data,Firstly,the concentration and diffusion of the cities spatial relationship was found in the remote sensing imagery,Most of the cities concentrate in the core area of the Pearl River Delta ,but the diffusion situation is also significant ,Secondly,the growth behavior and succession behavior of the urban spatial relationship was found in the remote sensing images comparison with different temporal data ,Thirdly,the inheritance,break ,or meeting emergency behavior was observed from the remoted sensing data.Fourthly,the authors found many cases of symbiosis and competi-tion in the remote sensing data of the Pearl River Delta ,Fifthly,The autoeciousness,stranglehold and invasion behavior of the urban spatial relationship was discovered from the remote sensing data.     

近40年来珠江河口区海岸线时空变化特征及驱动力分析

海岸线对海平面上升、海岸侵蚀、港湾淤积、湿地生态资源、近海海域环境等具有重要的指示作用。利用遥感和GIS技术获取了珠江河口区1973-2015年8期海岸线数据,分析了海岸线长度、类型、空间位置的时空演化特征,提出岸线利用程度指数并定量分析人类活动对岸线的影响,最后对海岸线变化驱动力进行了探讨。结果表明：① 珠江河口区海岸线长度总体持续增加,岸线变化强度具有阶段性,1990年以前变化缓慢,1990-2000年为变化高峰期,2000年后变化强度减弱;② 1973-1990年珠江河口区以自然岸线为主,之后人工岸线成为主导岸线类型,建设围堤岸线1973年占总长度的7.09%,2015年所占比例增加到46.49%,在所有岸线类型中变化最大、比例最高;③ 研究期内,珠江河口区海岸线以向海域推进为主,年均速率达到39.10 m/a,鸡啼门-虎跳门段、磨刀门-鸡啼门段和蕉门-洪奇门段为向海延伸的热点区域;④ 40年来岸线利用程度指数稳定上升,1995年前增速较快,之后相对平缓。伶仃洋东岸岸线利用程度增幅最大;⑤ 口门整治、开发建设和围海养殖等人为活动是珠江口海岸线发生变化的主要原因,自然环境条件、人口和经济的增长以及政策因素是岸线演变的重要驱动力。     

珠江口盆地CO2分布特征与成藏机制浅析

珠江口盆地多个凹陷均有钻井钻遇CO₂气体, 个别井钻遇的CO₂体积分数高达90%以上, 这些CO₂气体直接驱替了早期油藏或影响了油气充注规模, 增加了勘探风险。运用钻井数据、地球化学分析数据、重磁研究结果, 通过分析CO₂分布特征, 总结CO₂分布与断裂、火成岩的关系, 明确CO₂分布的主控因素, 预测珠江口盆地高CO₂风险带的分布。研究表明: 珠江口盆地对油气成藏有影响的CO₂主要为无机幔源成因, 受区域盖层和储层的控制, CO₂主要分布在上渐新统到下中新统地层及以下地层, 向上CO₂逐渐减少, 同时无机幔源CO₂分布明显受控于断裂体系, 与基底断裂和火成岩体具有较好的对应关系。无机CO₂气源主要为幔源岩浆的脱气作用, 垂向运移主要受不同级别断裂控制, 尤其该区深大断裂和基底长期活动断裂起到了很大作用, 因此幔源岩浆活动与断裂体系是CO₂汇聚的主控因素。由于珠江口盆地不同凹陷结构差异的影响, 幔源CO₂运聚成藏机制可概括为两类: 一是在北部坳陷带, 地壳厚度大, CO₂沿着深大断裂逐级向中上地壳运移形成"中转站", 然后在基底断裂的沟通下向浅层运移成藏; 二是在珠二坳陷, 由于地壳减薄作用, 并且发育拆离体系, 幔源岩浆首先到达拆离面, 脱出的CO₂沿着拆离面运移, 当遇到深切至拆离面的断裂后继续向浅层运移成藏。基于以上分析并结合运聚条件预测出珠江口盆地分布着7个高CO₂风险带, 这7个高CO₂风险带均位于深大断裂带附近, 并且周边火成岩较为发育。      

C2C商务模式下中国剪纸文化交易景观格局——以淘宝网络店铺的实证为例

互联网等现代信息空间为研究非物质文化景观,提供了新数据源和互动平台。本研究以中国剪纸文化为例,借助淘宝API,利用规则化网页采集工具,提取了淘宝网中销售中国剪纸商品的网络店铺基本信息和产品交易信息,利用GIS可视化与分析方法,开展C2C新型商业模式的文化交易景观表达,挖掘景观内涵和意义。结果表明:C2C模式下的文化交易景观与传统文化区具有明显耦合性,网络店铺和消费者分布在京津冀、长三角和珠三角区域形成明显的核心聚集区;同时,不同剪纸流派发展状况差别显著:陕北剪纸、蔚县剪纸等北方派剪纸在交易中占据主导地位,交易关系集中在中国东部和中部地区。本研究是文化地理学研究视角和研究方法在信息时代的重要扩展,对于全面认识当代中国非物质文化产业转型与发展态势具有现实参考意义。     

广东省公路交通网络分形空间特征研究

基于分形理论,以GIS技术为支撑,利用回转半径法测算了广东省全域及其所辖21个地级市公路交通网络半径维数D_L、分枝维数D_b和对应相关系数R²。依据广东省公路交通网络的特点,将其辖区分为四个子区域:珠三角、东部沿海、西部沿海和粤北地区,分析其半径维数和分枝维数的空间分布特征。研究表明,珠三角地区为广东省公路交通网络密度最大、结构最复杂、功能最完善、连通性最优的区域;以珠三角为中心,广东省公路交通网络分形半径维数和分枝维数随距离增大而衰减,沿海衰减程度微弱,粤北衰减程度较大。结果显示,半径维数和分枝维数结合能够更为合理系统地分析交通网络分形特征的时空差异特性。     

东莞市城镇用地扩张的时空特征分析

以不同时段的Landsat TM/ETM卫星遥感图像为数据源,利用G IS技对东莞市城镇用地的时空特征:扩张面积、扩张速度、扩张强度指数和土地利用转移矩阵进行了分析另外,结合社会经济统计数据对东莞市城镇用地扩张驱动力作了分析。研究结果表明:近15年来,东莞市城镇用地面积扩张了近7倍,尤其是1988-1995年,扩张趋势最为明显在不同象限和时段上扩张强度和规模差异较大,且空间分异明显,扩张以东北和西南方向为主。东莞市城镇用地扩张主要侵占的是耕地和开发用地,1995年后侵占主体由耕地转变为开发用地,表明扩张方式发生了改变。经济发展是东莞市城镇用地扩张的决定因素,同时,相关政策指引着经济发展的方向,贯穿于东莞市城镇用地扩张的全过程。     

珠江口西岸土地利用景观格局变化及驱动力分析

通过目视解译获取了珠海市沿海区域1995、2000和2003年的土地利用数据。利用ArcGIS软件获取了各种土地利用类型的面积变化数据,以及由模型运算得到不同时期研究区的土地利用分维度、分离度、破碎度、多样性等景观指数,对不同时期的土地利用面积变化,以及各景观指数的变化机理进行了分析。结果表明,珠江口西岸的土地利用变化主要表现为耕地面积不断减少,尤其2000年以后减少的更为剧烈;而林地、建设用地、水域的面积相应的有不同程度的增长。土地利用格局的变化,致使景观指数的变化,诸如,2003年的分离度、分维度等都高于前两个时期,而土地利用多样性指数也逐年增长。造成这些变化的主要驱动力有人口的增长,对土地经济效益的追求,政府政策的影响以及海岸带的区位优势等。     

ON FEATURES OF TOWN DEVELOPMENT IN THE ZHUJIANG RIVER DELTA SINCE 1978

since 1978, rural urbanization has been accelerated in the Zhujiang (Pearl) River Delta because of the rapid development of commodity agriculture, industrialization and tertiary industry. Its natural urban population increase had been mostly mechanical before now, and the towns have been transformed from traditional centers into those serving various functions, particularly industrial ones.In the Zhujiang River Delta, population density and the level of economic changes are high in central areas, and low in outlying area, but on the other hand, urban population has increased slowly in central area and fast in outlying area. In the central areas more industrial towns emerge. So the gap has been greatly reduced. The reform of the construction of the region's economy, the improvement of transportation, the adjustment of the standard of town setting have promoted the distribution of the towns in the Zhujiang River Delta from being centralized to balanced.     

广西桂平东塔河段产卵场水质综合评价

为了保护渔业生态环境和渔业资源,从2001-2003年对广西桂平东塔鱼类产卵场水体实施了连续调查监测,对该水域水质的时空变化趋势和质量状况进行了研究和综合评价。结果表明,东塔产卵场水体处于相对清洁至轻污染状态;总氮、总磷、锌是重点监测和控制的优先污染物。     

Modeling transportation of suspended solids in Zhujiang River estuary, South China

A three-dimensional transportation model for suspended solids （SS） in Zhujiang （Pearl） River estuary, South China, was developed by coupling with a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The model was validated using hourly measured data of sediment contents during 25-26, July 1999. The results showed that modeled contents matched well with measured ones and that the modeled top layer distribution agreed with the remotely sensed image of suspended solids in summer. The modeled results showed clearly the layers of suspended solids in depth, with larger sediment contents in lower layers though in the interface between salt water and freshwater the lowest contents appeared in middle layer. In overall, the suspended solids inflow from 8 rivers,transport southwestward, and carried by strong coastal flow in Zhujiang River estuary. Contours of sediment contents in the estuary spread further to the open sea during ebb tide rather than flood tide which reflects that the suspended solids in the estuary are land sourced.     

GEOTECTONICS CHARACTERISTICS AND THEIR RELATION WITH GAS-OIL POOL FORMATION OF THE DONGSHA FAULT-UP LIFTED MASSIF

The Dongsha fault- uplifted massif (for convenience . Dongsha massif from here on) is located in the northern continental shelf-slope of the South China Sea, where the water depth is 100-400m. The massif is considered to be a part of the large-scale fault-uplifted zone directed NE and separating the Pearl River Mouth Basin into northern and southern graben areas. The sedimentary cover of the Pearl River Mouth Graben consists mainly of a 7000-10000m thick Tertiary system. A large-scale uplift occurred in the Dongsha fault-uplifted zone during Paleocene-Eocene when the lower structural layer (lower Tertiary) existed only in the small depressions of the fault-uplifted zone. The formation and evolution of the Dongsha fault-uplifted zone could be divided into: 1) the basement formation stage (J2-K1); 2) the slowly uplifted stage (K2-E22); 3) the weathering and erosion stage (E23-E31); 4) the integrated subsidence stage (E32-N12) and 5) the last uplifted stage (N13-Q). The formation of the oil and gas pools o     

南海北部鱼类石油烃含量地理差异原因浅析

比较了南海北部海洋鱼类石油烃含量的地理差异,结果表明：被研究的5个海区中,广州湾海洋鱼类的石油烃含量明显高于北部湾（p＜0.05）和红海湾（P＜0．05）,该3个海区和珠江口明显高于台湾浅滩（p＜0.01）,其余的两两之间没有统计学差异（p＞0．05）。利用海洋环境质量调查和监测资料进行分析,说明这种地理分布特征与南海北部近岸海域的石油烃污染有直接关系。     

1987-2017年粤港澳大湾区城市群的不透水地表扩张与梯度演化

不透水地表是衡量城市化过程与空间扩张的重要特征.本文以我国最具经济活力的城市群-粤港澳大湾区城市(以下简称大湾区)为研究区,采用重心-标准差椭圆与梯度分析等方法,探讨其1987-2017年不透水地表的时空扩张分布特征与演化趋势.结果 表明:①30年来大湾区的不透水地表面积从1839.34km2持续增长至12 385.9...