基于阿里亚斯烈度估值的概率性地震危险性分析——以四川丹棱县及其周缘为例

以编制《中国地震动参数区划图》时所构建的地震潜在震源区模型和地震活动性模型为基本输入,在四川省丹棱县及其周缘地区开展基于阿里亚斯烈度的概率地震危险性分析,计算50年超越概率10%的阿里亚斯烈度(Arias Intensity,Ia)。结果表明:丹棱县及其周缘绝大部分地区的Ia值都在0.11m/s以上,部分地区在0.32m/s甚至0.54m/s以上,具有较高的地震诱发滑坡风险,应当加强人员密集区的地震诱发滑坡危险性评估。根据不同Ia预测方程计算得到的Ia分布有较大差异,因此在计算Ia时应考虑多个Ia预测方程,对最终结果进行加权平均,以减小Ia结果的不确定性。同时还发现Ia值与1.0s的谱加速度具有很好的相关性,这也印证了Ia和1.0s谱加速度与砂土液化的相关性。     

An evaluation of strong motion records and a new parameter A95

From the past studies of acceleration records, it is generally recognised that peak acceleration is not a suitable measure of the ground motion for design purposes. Usually, peak accelerations are difficult to predict. They occur in high frequency pulses containing very little energy and therefore are of little consequence. On the other hand acceleration has direct and useful application in engineering design. A new parameter A₉₅ is introduced in this paper which is defined as that level of acceleration which contains up to 95 per cent of the Arias Intensity. From the study of 135 records, it is noticed that the variation of the fraction of Arias Intensity with acceleration level can be described by a very well defined relationship. It is also observed that A₉₅ and Arias Intensity bear a stable relationship. Furthermore, the Arias Intensity at a site correlates more closely with the earthquake magnitude and the distance of the site from the source in attenuation relationships. From the available data, relationships are derived which show that there is a difference between the near-field and the far-field attenuation laws. The following relationships are obtained: where E_s = Arias Intensity, E_x = fraction of Arias Intensity above an acceleration level A, M = surface wave magnitude, R = nearest distance to the energy source or focal distance in km.     

New predictive equations for Arias intensity from crustal earthquakes in New Zealand

Arias Intensity (Arias, MIT Press, Cambridge MA, pp 438–483, 1970) is an important measure of the strength of a ground motion, as it is able to simultaneously reflect multiple characteristics of the motion in question. Recently, the effectiveness of Arias Intensity as a predictor of the likelihood of damage to short-period structures has been demonstrated, reinforcing the utility of Arias Intensity for use in both structural and geotechnical applications. In light of this utility, Arias Intensity has begun to be considered as a ground-motion measure suitable for use in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and earthquake loss estimation. It is therefore timely to develop predictive equations for this ground-motion measure. In this study, a suite of four predictive equations, each using a different functional form, is derived for the prediction of Arias Intensity from crustal earthquakes in New Zealand. The provision of a suite of models is included to allow for epistemic uncertainty to be considered within a PSHA framework. Coefficients are presented for four different horizontal-component definitions for each of the four models. The ground-motion dataset for which the equations are derived include records from New Zealand crustal earthquakes as well as near-field records from worldwide crustal earthquakes. The predictive equations may be used to estimate Arias Intensity for moment magnitudes between 5.1 and 7.5 and for distances (both r_jb and r_rup) up to 300 km.     

Ground‐motion attenuation relationship for the Sumatran megathrust earthquakes

A representative attenuation relationship is one of the key components required in seismic hazard assessment of a region of interest. Attenuation relationships for peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and response spectral accelerations for Sumatran megathrust earthquakes, covering M_w up to 9.0, are derived based on synthetic seismograms obtained from a finite‐fault kinematic model. The relationships derived are for very hard rock site condition and for a long‐distance range between 200 and 1500 km. They are then validated with recorded data from giant earthquakes on the Sumatran megathrust occurring since year 2000. A close examination of the recorded data also shows that spectral shapes predicted by most of the existing attenuation relationships and that specified in the IBC code are not particularly suitable for sites where potential seismic hazard is dominated by large‐magnitude, distant, earthquakes. Ground motions at a remote site are typically signified by the dominance of long‐period components with periods longer than 1 s, whereas the predominant periods from most of the existing attenuation relationships and the IBC code are shorter than 0.6 s. The shifting of response spectrum towards longer period range for distant earthquakes should be carefully taken into account in the formulation of future seismic codes for Southeast Asia, where many metropolises are located far from active seismic sources. The attenuation relationship derived in the present study can properly reproduce the spectral shape from distant subduction earthquakes, and could hopefully give insights into the formulation of future seismic codes. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Empirical model for estimating Fourier amplitude spectra of ground acceleration in Taiwan region

A collection of ground‐motion recordings (1070 acceleration records) of moderate (5.1⩽M_L⩽6.5) earthquakes obtained during the execution of the Taiwan Strong Motion Instrumentation Program (TSMIP) since 1991 was used to study source scaling model and attenuation relations for a wide range of earthquake magnitudes and distances and to verify the models developed recently for the Taiwan region. The results of the analysis reveal that the acceleration spectra of the most significant part of the records, starting from S‐wave arrival, can be modelled accurately using the Brune's ω‐squared source model with magnitude‐dependent stress parameter Δσ, that should be determined using the recently proposed regional relationships between magnitude (M_L) and seismic moment (M₀) and between M₀ and Δσ. The anelastic attenuation Q of spectral amplitudes with distance may be described as Q=225 ƒ^1.1 both for deep (depth more than 35 km) and shallow earthquakes. The source scaling and attenuation models allow a satisfactory prediction of the peak ground acceleration for magnitudes 5.1⩽M⩽6.5 and distances up to about 200 km in the Taiwan region, and may be useful for seismic hazard assessment. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spectral parameters of ground motion in different regions: comparison of empirical models

Fourier-amplitude spectrum is one of the most important parameters describing earthquake ground motion, and it is widely used for strong ground motion prediction and seismic hazard estimation. The relationships between Fourier-acceleration spectra, earthquake magnitude and distance were analysed for different seismic regions (the Caucasus and Taiwan island) on the basis of ground motion recordings of small to moderate (3.5≤M_L≤6.5) earthquakes. It has been found that the acceleration spectra of the most significant part of the records, starting from S-wave arrival, can be modelled accurately by the Brune's “ω-squared” point-source model. Parameters of the model are found to be region-dependent. Peak ground accelerations and response spectra for condition of rock sites were calculated using stochastic simulation technique and obtained models of source spectra. The modelled ground-motion parameters are compared with those predicted by recent empirical attenuation relationship for California.     

A predictive model for Arias intensity at multiple sites and consideration of spatial correlations

Arias intensity, I_a, has been identified as an efficient intensity measure for the estimation of earthquake‐induced losses. In this paper, a new model for the prediction of Arias intensity, which incorporates nonlinear site response through the use of the average shear‐wave velocity and a heteroskedastic variance structure, is proposed. In order to estimate the effects of ground motions on spatially‐distributed systems, it is important to take into account the spatial correlation of the intensity measure. However, existing loss‐estimation models, which use I_a as an input, do not take this aspect of the ground motion into account. Therefore, the potential to model the spatial correlation of Arias intensity is also investigated. The empirical predictive model is developed using recordings from the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center Next Generation of Attenuation database whereas the model for spatial correlation makes use of the well‐recorded events from this database, that is the Northridge and Chi‐Chi earthquakes. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fully probabilistic seismic displacement analysis of spatially distributed slopes using spatially correlated vector intensity measures

Earthquake‐induced slope displacement is an important parameter for safety evaluation and earthquake design of slope systems. Traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis usually focuses on evaluating slope displacement at a particular location, and it is not suitable for spatially distributed slopes over a large region. This study proposes a computationally efficient framework for fully probabilistic seismic displacement analysis of spatially distributed slope systems using spatially correlated vector intensity measures (IMs). First, a spatial cross‐correlation model for three key ground motion IMs, that is, peak ground acceleration (PGA), Arias intensity, and peak ground velocity, is developed using 2686 ground motion recordings from 11 recent earthquakes. To reduce the computational cost, Monte Carlo simulation and data reduction techniques are utilized to generate spatially correlated random fields for the vector IMs. The slope displacement hazards over the region are further quantified using empirical predictive equations. Finally, an illustrative example is presented to highlight the importance of the spatial correlation and the advantage of using spatially correlated vector IMs in seismic hazard analysis of spatially distributed slopes. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Near‐fault ground motions,and the response of elastic and inelastic single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDOF) systems

In order to investigate the response of structures to near‐fault seismic excitations, the ground motion input should be properly characterized and parameterized in terms of simple, yet accurate and reliable, mathematical models whose input parameters have a clear physical interpretation and scale, to the extent possible, with earthquake magnitude. Such a mathematical model for the representation of the coherent (long‐period) ground motion components has been proposed by the authors in a previous study and is being exploited in this article for the investigation of the elastic and inelastic response of the single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDOF) system to near‐fault seismic excitations. A parametric analysis of the dynamic response of the SDOF system as a function of the input parameters of the mathematical model is performed to gain insight regarding the near‐fault ground motion characteristics that significantly affect the elastic and inelastic structural performance. A parameter of the mathematical representation of near‐fault motions, referred to as ‘pulse duration’ (T_P), emerges as a key parameter of the problem under investigation. Specifically, T_P is employed to normalize the elastic and inelastic response spectra of actual near‐fault strong ground motion records. Such normalization makes feasible the specification of design spectra and reduction factors appropriate for near‐fault ground motions. The ‘pulse duration’ (T_P) is related to an important parameter of the rupture process referred to as ‘rise time’ (τ) which is controlled by the dimension of the sub‐events that compose the mainshock. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Response spectral attenuation relationships for Singapore and the Malay Peninsula due to distant Sumatran‐fault earthquakes

As part of the effort to assess the seismic hazards of Singapore and the Malay Peninsula, representative ground motion prediction models have to be established. Seven existing attenuation relationships developed for shallow crustal earthquakes in stable continent and active tectonic regions are examined, and they are found to consistently over‐predict the ground motions of Sumatran‐fault earthquakes recently recorded in Singapore. This may be attributed to the differences in the regional crustal structures and distance ranges considered. Since the number of recorded ground motions in the region is very limited, a new set of attenuation relationships is derived based on synthetic seismograms. The uncertainties in rupture parameters, such as stress drop, focal depth, dip and rake angles, are defined according to the regional geological and tectonic settings as well as the ruptures of previous earthquakes. Ground motions are simulated for earthquakes with Mw ranging from 4.0 to 8.0, within a distance range from 174 to 1379km. Besides magnitude and distance, source‐to‐station azimuth is found to influence the amplitudes of the ground motions simulated. Thus, the azimuth is taken as an independent variable in the derived ground motion attenuation relationships. The Sumatran‐fault segments that have the potential to generate a specified level of response spectral accelerations in Singapore and Kuala Lumpur are identified based on the newly derived ground motion models. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geological, geophysical and seismological criteria for local response evaluation in Bucharest urban area

Vrancea major intermediate-depth earthquakes produced extreme damage in Bucharest city, located at about 165 km epicenter distance. Our purpose is to investigate the influence of local geological conditions upon the seismic motion in Bucharest in case of large (M>7) Vrancea earthquakes. Two input data sets are used: (a) geological, geotechnical and geophysical information, including in situ measurements, and (b) acceleration recordings of Vrancea earthquakes. Local response evaluation based on first dataset is confirmed by the spectral analysis of the earthquake records. Two main features are outlined: non-stationarity of ground motion dynamic amplification from one event to other and inadequacy of limiting the investigation depth to uppermost 30 m to evaluate ground dynamic characteristics. Consequently (1) we cannot extrapolate the ground motion response determined for moderate and small earthquakes to anticipate the effects of the large Vrancea shocks and (2) the local response is controlled by the entire package of Quaternary deposits which are significantly deeper than 30 m depth beneath Bucharest Area.     

Evidence of significant forward rupture directivity aggravated by soil response in an Mw6 earthquake and the effects on monuments

While strong directivity effects have been mostly recognized in M_w > 6.5 earthquakes, the paper investigates the case of a strong such effect in a relatively small‐magnitude event on 3 February 2014 in the island of Cephalonia, Greece. The second of two events (both of M_w ≈ 6) produced a pernicious accelerogram in the region's main town, Lixouri. The paper provides evidence from geology, interferometry, and seismology to convince that the motion was the result of constructive interference in front of the direction of rupture of the obliquely‐strike‐slip fault. The nature of the record is explored to demonstrate that its frequency content, its high velocity pulse, and its strong fault‐normal (FN) favorable polarity are associated with directivity. Moreover, the broad spectral acceleration peak (of 1.7 g) of the FN motion, centered at a period (T ≈ 1.4 s) which almost coincides with the period of the velocity pulse, is shown to have also been affected by soil amplification, in quantitative agreement with Bray et al. (2009). Such a directivity‐and‐soil‐affected motion explains much of the profound damage to monuments, slopes, and harbor quaywalls. In particular, toppling (as well as excessive rotation and sliding) of nearly‐all the tombstones in Lixouri cemetery are shown to correlate well with characteristics of the FN component of motion. By contrast, the excellent performance of the building stock — despite the destructive shaking that prevailed — is persuasively attributed to conservatively‐robust construction practices of the past and the high base shear coefficient of the strict latest (2000) seismic code. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

芦山地震强地面运动之阿里亚斯强度及Newmark位移特征研究

本文以芦山地震强地面运动记录为基础资料,研究了阿里亚斯强度和Newmark位移两个地震动参数的空间分布特征、衰减特征以及与其它地震动参数的相关性.研究结果表明:阿里亚斯强度的空间分布与地震断层空间展布和地震破裂方向具有相关性;阿里亚斯强度与峰值加速度(PGA)有较好的相关性,场地条件对二者的相关性具有显著影响,PGA相...     

Design Earthquakes in the U.K.

Three sites in the UK are taken, representative of low, medium and high hazard levels (by UK standards). For each site, the hazard value at 10⁻⁴ annual probability is computed using a generic seismic source model, and a variety of ground motion parameters: peak ground acceleration (PGA), spectral acceleration at 10 Hz and 1 Hz, and intensity. Disaggregation is used to determine the nature of the earthquakes most likely to generate these hazard values. It is found (as might be expected) that the populations are quite different according to which ground motion parameter is used. When PGA is used, the result is a rather flat magnitude distribution with a tendency to low magnitude events (\le 4.5 ML) which are probably not really hazardous. Hazard-consistent scenario earthquakes computed using intensity are found to be in the range 5.8–5.9 ML, which is more in accord with the type of earthquake that one expects to be a worst-case event in the UK. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Strong motion characteristics of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> 6.6 Lushan earthquake,Sichuan, China — an insight into the spatial difference of a typical thrust fault earthquake

Near-field strong ground motions are useful for engineering seismology studies and seismic design, but dense observation networks of damaging earthquakes are still rare. In this study, based on the strong-motion data from the M w 6.6 Lushan earthquake, the ground motion parameters in different spatial regions are systematically analyzed, and the contributions from different effects, like the hanging-wall effect, directivity effect, and attenuation effect are separated to the extent possible. Different engineering parameters from the observed ground motions are compared with the local design response spectra and a new attenuation relation of Western China. General results indicate that the high frequency ground motion, like the peak ground acceleration, on two sides of the fault plane is sensitive to the hanging-wall effect, whereas the low frequency ground motion, like the long period spectral acceleration, in the rupture propagation direction is affected by the directivity effect. Moreover, although the M w 6.6 Lushan earthquake is not a large magnitude event, the spatial difference of ground motion is still obvious; thus, for a thrust faulting earthquake, in addition to the hanging effect, the directivity effect should also be considered.     

Characteristics of strong ground motion for typical Australian intra-plate earthquakes and their relationship with the recommended response spectra

Global epicentre maps show that the majority of earthquakes are inter-plate, although moderate to large earthquakes do occur intra-plate, i.e. within the plates. The seismicity of the Australian continent is typical of intra-plate environments and a magnitude M_L 6 earthquake has an average return period of about 5 years. Recordings of Australian intra-plate earthquakes are investigated here to characterise their frequency content, peak acceleration and duration.Due to lack of quality strong motion records of large intra-plate earthquakes at short distances, synthetic seismograms are commonly used for testing structural behaviour. An empirical Green's Function method (Geophys. Res. Lett., 5 (1978), 1–4; Proceedings of the Third International Microzonation Conference, Seattle, USA, vol. 1, (1982), pp. 447–458.) is chosen to simulate a large earthquake by summation in time of a number of smaller earthquakes or sub-events, each given a slightly different origin time to represent more realistically the propagation of a rupture along an assumed fault plane. In the first instance, recordings on rock of the magnitude M_L 2.3 aftershock of the 29 December 1989 Newcastle earthquake were used as sub-events to simulate the main shock of magnitude M_L 5.6. Validation studies for events recorded elsewhere in Australia are also considered.The response spectra of such synthetic events will be compared with the recommended spectra developed empirically from a statistical analysis of strong motion data for magnitude 5.4–6.5 intra-plate earthquakes recorded in other parts of the world and normalised to a peak ground velocity of 50 mm/s which is typical for a return period of 500 years in Australia (Australasian Structural Engineering Conference, Auckland, New Zealand, (1998), pp. 439–444.). Preliminary results from this comparison with the response spectra recommended for the Building Code of Australia show that the synthetic waveforms produced by this method are realistic and can be used to represent ground motion during typical Australian intra-plate earthquakes.     

Validation of (not‐historical) large‐event near‐fault ground‐motion simulations for use in civil engineering applications

Ground‐motion simulations generated from physics‐based wave propagation models are gaining increasing interest in the engineering community for their potential to inform the performance‐based design and assessment of infrastructure residing in active seismic areas. A key prerequisite before the ground‐motion simulations can be used with confidence for application in engineering domains is their comprehensive and rigorous investigation and validation. This article provides a four‐step methodology and acceptance criteria to assess the reliability of simulated ground motions of not historical events, which includes (1) the selection of a population of real records consistent with the simulated scenarios, (2) the comparison of the distribution of Intensity Measures (IMs) from the simulated records, real records, and Ground‐Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), (3) the comparison of the distribution of simple proxies for building response, and (4) the comparison of the distribution of Engineering Demand Parameters (EDPs) for a realistic model of a structure. Specific focus is laid on near‐field ground motions (<10km) from large earthquakes (M_w7), for which the database of real records for potential use in engineering applications is severely limited. The methodology is demonstrated through comparison of (2490) near‐field synthetic records with 5 Hz resolution generated from the Pitarka et al (2019) kinematic rupture model with a population of (38) pulse‐like near‐field real records from multiple events and, when applicable, with NGA‐W2 GMPEs. The proposed procedure provides an effective method for informing and advancing the science needed to generate realistic ground‐motion simulations, and for building confidence in their use in engineering domains.     

新疆喀什原场地地震动频谱特性研究

2020年1月19日和2020年2月21日在新疆喀什地区先后发生M_S6.4和M_S5.1地震,针对新疆强震动台网收集到的128条强震动记录进行统计分析,研究2次地震记录的幅值及反应谱特性,并与两个现行规范设计反应谱进行对比,结果表明：(1)震级相同时,震中距越小加速度反应谱越大,且加速度反应谱衰减速度越慢;震中距相同时,震级越大加速度反应谱越大,且加速度反应谱衰减速度越慢;(2)震级越大加速度谱值、速度谱值、位移谱值越大;(3)M_S6.4、M_S5.1地震波加速度反应谱及其平均值曲线相近,与我国现行规范加速度反应谱相比差别很大。建议在新疆喀什地区采用基于当地强震记录的加速度反应谱进行结构抗震设计。     

Housner谱烈度的一种快速近似算法

Housner谱烈度及修正谱烈度作为基于加速度记录时程直接得到的地震动强度参数,与建筑结构破坏及地震宏观烈度存在较高的相关性,是可靠的地震仪器烈度物理参数指标。然而,相对于地面加速度峰值、地面速度峰值等地震动峰值参数,三分量加速度记录对应的谱烈度计算过程较为复杂,耗时相对较长,影响了利用谱烈度确定地震仪器烈度的时效性。基于对强震动加速度记录的统计分析,本文提出了谱烈度的快速近似算法,仅计算4个方向上的谱烈度值,采用其中3点作圆即可获得水平面内谱烈度迹线的近似最大值,使计算速度提高了45倍,且保持了谱烈度作为地震仪器烈度物理指标的精度。利用在汶川M_S 8.0地震等386次M_S > 3.0地震中获取的2701组强震动加速度记录,经可靠性检验,结果表明所提出的Housner谱烈度快速近似算法的计算误差在±4.5%以内,可以同时满足地震仪器烈度速报的可靠性和时效性需求。     

Prediction of the maximum credible ground motion in Singapore due to a great Sumatran subduction earthquake: the worst‐case scenario

Although Singapore is located in a low‐seismicity region, huge but infrequent Sumatran subduction earthquakes might pose structural problems to medium‐ and high‐rise buildings in the city. Based on a series of ground motion simulations of potential earthquakes that may affect Singapore, the 1833 Sumatran subduction earthquake (M_w=9.0) has been identified to be the worst‐case scenario earthquake. Bedrock motions in Singapore due to the hypothesized earthquake are simulated using an extended reflectivity method, taking into account uncertainties in source rupture process. Random rupture models, considering the uncertainties in rupture directivity, slip distribution, presence of asperities, rupture velocity and dislocation rise time, are made based on a range of seismologically possible models. The simulated bedrock motions have a very long duration of about 250 s with a predominant period between 1.8 and 2.5 s, which coincides with the natural periods of medium‐ and high‐rise buildings widely found in Singapore. The 90‐percentile horizontal peak ground acceleration is estimated to be 33 gal and the 90‐percentile horizontal spectral acceleration with 5% damping ratio is 100 gal within the predominant period range. The 90‐percentile bedrock motion would generate base shear force higher than that required by the current design code, where seismic design has yet to be considered. This has not taken into account effects of local soil response that might further amplify the bedrock motion. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.