The impact of freshwater discharges on the ocean circulation in the Skagerrak/northern North Sea area Part I: model validation

We assess the performance of an eddy-recognizing numerical ocean model in simulating the pattern and variability of the hydrography in the Skagerrak/northern North Sea area. The model we use is a version of the widely used Princeton ocean model employing a terrain-following vertical coordinate. Results from a series of five multi-year simulations of the mesoscale response are described. The simulations differ in their representation of the lateral freshwater supply to the model ocean of which the first is a reference simulation. The next four are variations in which the river discharges and/or the Baltic outflow are given more realistic representations. For validation, we have used in situ hydrographic data. A novelty is that we use the concepts of freshwater height and potential energy anomaly as objective validation tools. We find that, in general, the model faithfully reproduces many of the observed hydrographic features including their mean patterns and their variance. Not surprisingly, we find that the Baltic outflow is by far the most significant freshwater source in terms of its influence on the hydrography in the area, a result corroborating earlier findings. The best validation is obtained when all freshwater supply is made as realistic as possible, in particular the Baltic outflow. We also find that the large scale cyclonic circulation and the location of fronts are robust characteristics of the Skagerrak/northern North Sea circulation given the impact changes in the freshwater input has on the hydrography. Finally, we find that a further exploration of the impact of the lateral open boundary forcing, e.g., the input of Atlantic water, is needed.     

Mean and eddy motion in the Skagerrak/northern North Sea: insight from a numerical model

Insight regarding the mean and eddy motion in the Skagerrak/northern North Sea area is gained through an analysis of model-simulated currents, hydrography, kinetic energy and relative vorticity for the 2 years 2000 and 2001. In this a -coordinate ocean model is used. Since the tidal currents are generally strong in the area, care is exercised to distinguish the mesoscale (eddy) motion from higher-frequency motion such as tides, before computing the mean and eddy kinetic energy. The model-simulated response is first compared with available knowledge of the circulation in the area, and when available, also with sea-surface temperature obtained from satellite imagery. It is concluded that the model appears to faithfully reproduce most of what is known, in particularly the upper mixed layer circulation. An analysis of the mean and eddy kinetic energy reveals that many of the mesoscale structures found in the area are recurrent. This is particularly true for the structures off the southern tip of Norway. Also in general, areas of strong mean and eddy kinetic energy are co-located. The exception is the area off the southern tip of Norway, where the eddy kinetic energy is much larger than its mean counterpart. An analysis of the relative vorticity reveals that the variability found is due to the occurrence of recurrent anticyclonic eddies. It is hypothesized that these eddies are generated due to an offshore veering of the Norwegian coastal current (NCC) as it reaches the eastern end of the Norwegian Trench plateau. Here it becomes a free jet, which is then vulnerable to either barotropic instability caused by the horizontal shear in the jet-like structure of the NCC at this point, or a baroclinic (frontal) instability. The latter may come into play when the NCC veers offshore and its relatively fresh water meets the inflowing saline water of Atlantic origin, a frontogenesis that may become strong enough for cyclogenesis to take place. Due to the depth-independent nature of the model-generated eddies, the barotropic instability is the most likely candidate. It remains to resolve the reason for the offshore veering of the NCC. The most likely candidate mechanisms are vortex squeezing or simply that the coastline curvature is large enough for the NCC to separate from the coast in a hydraulic sense.Responsible Editor: Phil Dyke     

Decadal long simulations of mesoscale structures in the northern North Sea/Skagerrak using two ocean models

We consider results from two 27-year-long simulation pairs derived using two different ocean models. We focus on the Skagerrak/North Sea area. Each pair consists of the two terrain-following coordinate models ROMS and MIPOM. The first pair utilizes an eddy-permitting grid, that is, a grid in which the Rossby radius is barely resolved. The second pair utilizes an eddy-resolving grid in which the Rossby radius is truly resolved. The goal is to compare the quality of the two models and the two pairs. To this end we derive statistical properties such as probability density functions and compare them with similar statistics derived from observations. Thereby we obtain insight into whether a truly eddy-resolving model is required to realistically capture the mesoscale statistics. We find that eddy resolution is critical to get the mesoscale statistics correct, in particular, the strength of the current jets. Our results also indicate that the improvement gained by employing the eddy-resolving grid is mostly due to a better resolved topography. In particular, we find that this is the case in areas exhibiting prominent topographic features, such as the deep Norwegian Trench cutting into the heart of the northern North Sea/Skagerrak area. The results also highlight the advantage of first performing quality assurance investigations when implementing a new model for a new area.     

Seasonal variation of upper layer circulation in the northern part of the East/Japan Sea

Seasonal variation of upper layer circulation in the northern part of the East/Japan Sea and its mechanism were investigated using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis with satellite sea surface heights over the northern East/Japan Sea and a three-dimensional circulation model. The spatial structure and temporal variation of first EOF mode, which explains about 64% of the total variance, indicate that a large cyclonic circulation in the northern East/Japan Sea shows a semi-annual variation with maximum strength in summer and winter. According to numerical model result, the Liman Cold Current, accepted as a major current in the northern East/Japan Sea, is well mixed vertically by the winter monsoon and the current in the upper layer has a relatively deep structure, with a maximum westward speed of about 20 cm/s in winter. On the other hand, in summer the current has a stronger baroclinic structure of velocity than in winter. Numerical experiments showed that in summer the temporal variation of upper layer circulation is controlled by thermal forcing, such as sea surface heat flux and inflow of heat transport into the East/Japan Sea through the Korea/Tsushima Strait. Moreover, the cyclonic circulation in the upper layer of the northern East/Japan Sea is also generated and strengthened by the positive wind stress curl occupying most of the East/Japan Sea during the winter. The seasonal variation of each forcing that drives the circulation is responsible for the strength or weakness of the upper layer circulation in the northern East/Japan Sea. The contribution of each forcing to the seasonal variation of the upper layer circulation is examined through sensitivity experiments. According to these numerical experiments, the upper layer circulation in the northern East/Japan Sea is strengthened twice a year, in winter and summer, and this semi-annual variation is determined by a combination of wind (winter) and thermal (summer) forcing.     

开边界海盆尺度环流模式模拟北太平洋CFCs分布

利用一个开边界北太平洋海盆尺度环流模式模拟了北太平洋CFCs的吸收和分布.模式计算了CFC_11海气界面通量及其在海洋中的输运和再分布,考察了开边界对模式模拟结果的影响以及开边界模式中不同沿等密度面扩散系数的影响.打开南边界可以很好地改善赤道以南海区的CFC_11模拟.增加沿等密度面扩散系数使得137°E和165°E断面模拟的高CFC_11水向南、向下输送的强度和影响范围都有明显增大,能很好地改善西北太平洋的模拟结果.西北太平洋是CFC_11的一个重要的汇区,此外在赤道东太平洋上升流区还存在一个小的汇区.     

On the circulation in the East Frisian Wadden Sea: numerical modeling and data analysis

 In this paper we use a combination of numerical modeling and data analysis to gain a better understanding of the major characteristics of the circulation in the East Frisian Wadden Sea. In particular, we concentrate on the asymmetry of the tidal wave and its modulation in the coastal area, which results in a complex pattern of responses to the sea-level forcing from the North Sea. The numerical simulations are based on the 3-D primitive equation General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM) with a horizontal resolution of 200 m and terrain-following vertical coordinates. The model is forced at its open boundaries with sea-level data from an operational model for the German Bight (German Hydrographic Office). The validation data for our model simulations include time series of tidal gauge data and surface currents measured at a pile in the back-barrier basin of the Island Langeoog, as well as several ADCP transects in the Accumer Ee tidal inlet. Circulation and turbulence characteristics are investigated for typical situations driven by spring and neap tides, and the analysis is focused on dominating temporal and spatial patterns. By investigating the response of five back-barrier basins with rather different morphologies to external forcing, an attempt is made to elucidate the dominating physical balances controlling the circulation in the individual sub-basins. It is demonstrated that the friction at the seabed tends to slow down the tidal signal in the shallow water. This leads to the establishment of flood dominance in the shallow sea north of the barrier islands. South of the islands, where the water volume of the channels at low tide is smaller than the tidal prism, the asymmetry of the tidal signal is shifted towards ebb dominance, a feature which is particularly pronounced at spring tide. At the northern open boundary, the tidal wave propagating from west to east generates a sea-level difference of ∼1 m along the boundary, and thereby triggers vigorous alongshore currents. The frictional control in the model is located in the inlets, as well as along the northern boundary. The correlation between velocity and turbulent kinetic energy tends to the establishment of a net southward transport, giving theoretical support to the observed accumulation of sediments on the intertidal flats. Weak turbulence along the northern shores of the barrier islands and the small magnitude of the residual currents there promote accumulation of suspended matter in these areas, although wave action will generally counteract this effect. Received: 29 May 2002 / Accepted: 26 September 2002 Responsible Editor: Jean-Marie Beckers Acknowledgements We are indebted to S. Dick for providing the data from the operational model of BSH and to B. Flemming for the useful discussions. The topography data and Fig. 1 have been prepared in cooperation with F. Meyer. Figure 2 has been prepared by G. Brink-Spalink. We also thank for the comments from an anonymous reviewer which helped to improve our paper.     

Tidal currents,energy flux and bottom boundary layer thickness in the Clyde Sea and North Channel of the Irish Sea

A high-resolution three-dimensional model of the Clyde Sea and the adjacent North Channel of the Irish Sea is used to compute the major diurnal and semidiurnal tides in the region, the associated energy fluxes and thickness of the bottom boundary layer. Initially, the accuracy of the model is assessed by performing a detailed comparison of computed tidal elevations and currents in the region, against an extensive database that exists for the M₂, S₂, N₂, K₁ and O₁ tides. Subsequently, the model is used to compute the tidal energy flux vectors in the region. These show that the major energy flux is confined to the North Channel region, with little energy flux into the Clyde Sea. Comparison with the observed energy flux in the North Channel shows that its across-channel distribution and its magnitude are particularly sensitive to the phase difference between elevation and current. Consequently, small changes in the computed values of these parameters due to slight changes of the order of the uncertainty in the open-boundary values to the model, can significantly influence the computed energy flux. The thickness of the bottom boundary layer in the region is computed using a number of formulations. Depending upon the definition adopted, the empirical coefficient C used to determine its thickness varies over the range 0.1 to 0.3, in good agreement with values found in the literature. In the North Channel, the boundary layer thickness occupies the whole water depth, and hence tidal turbulence produced at the sea bed keeps the region well mixed. In the Clyde Sea, the boundary layer thickness is a small fraction of the depth, and hence the region stratifies.Responsible Editor: Phil Dyke     

云南地区余震序列的能量衰减

利川判断地震序列能蕈释放衰减是否异常的Ec—k量板,汁算了云南及附近地区39次巾强地震序列的能量衰减系数k值。结果显示：①当判别指标k〉1时,地震序列能量衰减处于正常状态;当k≤1时,判断地震序列能量衰减出现异常,其后发生更大地震或强余震的町能什较大。②对云南地区中强地震序列的榆验表明,有74％的地震序列符合上述判别指标。③用相同的地震进行了地震序列频度衰减系数^值的计算,发现符合h值判别指标的地震序列占统计际本的锄％。④对日常地震跟踪临视中遇到的二次典型地震序列详细分析,发现用k值力。法无论对中小地震序列还是巨震序列,预测效果均较好。     

深地震探测的分辨率分析——以南海北部OBS数据为例

多次深地震探测结果表明南海北部陆缘地壳结构在走向和倾向上都有明显的变化.在一些相隔很近的测线上,探测的深部地壳结构却相差较大,为了分析这些探测结果中差异的原因和地壳结构变化的可靠性,本文以东沙东侧海域测线和东沙西侧海域测线为例,对采集的海底地震仪记录进行了时间、位置校正和初至波走时拾取,利用有限差分地震走时层析成像进行了走时反演,获得所在剖面的地壳速度结构,并分析了模型的横向分辨率,剔除模型中短波长的横向速度变化.分辨率检测结果表明,模型的横向分辨率随着深度快速下降,0～8 km深度范围可以分辨10 km的横向变化,8～17 km的范围能够分辨10～40 km,而17～33 km的范围只能分辨40～80 km.因此,折射波的横向分辨能力不高,在地壳深部难以分辨较小的横向速度变化,前人探测的南海北部6 km宽、延伸至莫霍面的滨外断裂带并不能清晰的识别.     

Nitrogen and carbon cycling in the North Sea and exchange with the North Atlantic—A model study,Part II: Carbon budget and fluxes

The 3-d coupled physical–biogeochemical model ECOHAM (version 3) was applied to the Northwest-European Shelf (47°41′–63°53′N, 15°5′W–13°55′E) for the years 1993–1996. Carbon fluxes were calculated for the years 1995 and 1996 for the inner shelf region, the North Sea (511,725 km²). This period was chosen because it corresponds to a shift from a very high winter-time North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) in 1994/1995, to an extremely low one in 1995/1996, with consequences for the North Sea physics and biogeochemistry. During the first half of 1996, the observed mean SST was about 1 °C lower than in 1995; in the southern part of the North Sea the difference was even larger (up to 3 °C). Due to a different wind regime, the normally prevailing anti-clockwise circulation, as found in winter 1995, was replaced by more complicated circulation patterns in winter 1996. Decreased precipitation over the drainage area of the continental rivers led to a reduction in the total (inorganic and organic) riverine carbon load to the North Sea from 476 Gmol C yr⁻¹ in 1995 to 340 Gmol C yr⁻¹ in 1996. In addition, the North Sea took up 503 Gmol C yr⁻¹ of CO₂ from the atmosphere. According to our calculations, the North Sea was a sink for atmospheric CO₂, at a rate of 0.98 mol C m⁻² yr⁻¹, for both years. The North Sea is divided into two sub-systems: the shallow southern North Sea (SNS; 190,765 km²) and the deeper northern North Sea (NNS; 320,960 km²). According to our findings the SNS is a net-autotrophic system (net ecosystem production NEP>0) but released CO₂ to the atmosphere: 159 Gmol C yr⁻¹ in 1995 and 59 Gmol C yr⁻¹ in 1996. There, the temperature-driven release of CO₂ outcompetes the biological CO₂ drawdown. In the NNS, where respiratory processes prevail (NEP<0), 662 and 562 Gmol C yr⁻¹ were taken up from the atmosphere in 1995 and 1996, respectively. Stratification separates the productive, upper layer from the deeper layers of the water column where respiration/remineralization takes place. Duration and stability of the stratification are determined by the meteorological conditions, in relation to the NAO. Our results suggest that this mechanism controlling the nutrient supply to the upper layer in the northern and central North Sea has a larger impact on the carbon fluxes than changes in lateral transport due to NAOI variations. The North Sea as a whole imports organic carbon and exports inorganic carbon across the outer boundaries, and was found to be net-heterotrophic, more markedly in 1996 than in 1995.     

西北太平洋热带气旋活动影响区域大尺度环流的数值模拟研究

本文利用"模式手术"方法研究了西北太平洋热带气旋（TC）对东亚-西北太平洋区域大尺度环流的影响.结果表明,夏季频繁的西北太平洋TC活动导致东亚夏季风增强,季风槽加深;西太平洋副热带高压东退,位置偏北;东亚副热带高空急流强度增强,北太平洋（东亚大陆）上急流轴偏北（偏南）;热带地区（副热带地区）的对流层中低层出现异常上升气流（下沉气流）,并且从低纬向高纬呈现异常上升气流和异常下沉气流交替分布特征.在中国东南沿海,TC降水导致夏季降水量明显增加;而在长江中下游和华北地区,TC活动引起的异常下沉气流使夏季降水量显著减少.因此,夏季西北太平洋TC活动对东亚-西北太平洋区域气候有显著影响.     

An analysis of change in alpine annual maximum discharges: implications for the selection of design discharges

The paper presents an analysis of 17 long annual maximum series (AMS) of flood flows for Swiss Alpine basins, aimed at checking the presence of changes in the frequency regime of annual maxima. We apply Pettitt's change point test, the nonparametric sign test and Sen's test on trends. We also apply a parametric goodness‐of‐fit test for assessing the suitability of distributions estimated on the basis of annual maxima collected up to a certain year for describing the frequency regime of later observations. For a number of series the tests yield consistent indications for significant changes in the frequency regime of annual maxima and increasing trends in the intensity of annual maximum discharges. In most cases, these changes cannot be explained by anthropogenic causes only (e.g. streamflow regulation, construction of dams). Instead, we observe a statistically significant relationship between the year of change and the elevation of the catchment outlet. This evidence is consistent with the findings of recent studies that explain increasing discharges in alpine catchments with an increase in the temperature controlling the portion of mountain catchments above the freezing point. Finally, we analyse the differences in return periods (RPs) estimated for a given flood flow on the basis of recent and past observations. For a large number of the study AMS, we observe that, on average, the 100‐year flood for past observations corresponds to a RP of approximately 10 to 30 years on the basis of more recent observation. From a complementary perspective, we also notice that estimated RP‐year flood (i.e. flood quantile (FQ) associated with RP) increases on average by approximately 20% for the study area, irrespectively of the RP. Practical implications of the observed changes are illustrated and discussed in the paper. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multi-platform model assessment in the Western Mediterranean Sea: impact of downscaling on the surface circulation and mesoscale activity

Ocean Dynamics - In numerical ocean modeling, dynamical downscaling is the approach consisting in generating high-resolution regional simulations exploiting the information from coarser resolution...     

An observational study of 300 mb winds in the tropical belt. Part II: Dynamical interpretation

An estimate of the magnitudes of the absolute vorticity advection terms and the terms in the balance equation suggest that the use of the barotropic vorticity equation within 5 degrees of latitude of the equator is not very good and that the linear balance equation is as good as the nonlinear balance equation in the equatorial region. Zonal Fourier analysis has revealed that the contribution from planetary scale waves is much larger than that from synoptic scale waves, being more in the winter hemisphere than in the summer hemisphere. In classical scale analysis there must be a distinction in wavelength between the zonal and the meridional directions for planetary scale waves. This distinction does not appear to be necessary for synoptic scale waves.     

Effects of the constitutive relationship on seismic response of soils. Part II. The site amplification study

This paper is the first part of the general paper dealing with effects of constitutive modeling of cyclic stress–strain behavior of soils on site amplification. The paper concentrates on modeling of pseudo-static cyclic soil behavior in small to medium strain range. In order to fit the small strain data accurately, the chosen analytical stress–strain relationship should satisfy the specific small strain condition formulated for soils using the small strain data from the pseudo-static cyclic tests. Analysis of conventional relationships, in particular the Ramberg–Osgood (R–O) relationship, indicated that a failure to satisfy this condition lead to low accuracy of prediction of both tangent stiffness and damping ratio at small and medium strains. The logarithmic function originally proposed to describe static monotonic stress–strain behavior is applied to fit experimental cyclic backbone curves. Constructed to satisfy the formulated small strain condition for soils, this function has proven to be free from the limitations of the R–O and other relationships. When applied in combination with the Masing rules to predict damping ratios, it gives a good prediction in the small to medium strain range, where the Masing hypothesis is supported by experimental evidence.     

The impact of Shokarski stormwater canal on the quality of the Bulgarian Black Sea bathing waters in the area of discharge

The impact of Shokarski stormwater canal on the bathing waters quality of Varna Bay located in the northern Bulgarian Black Sea was investigated during 2007–2014. A total of five monitoring stations were selected: three city beaches near the area of discharge of the stormwater canal and two nearby resorts beaches. The water quality was assessed following the requirements of the old EU Bathing Water Directive (BWD) 76/160/EEC and the new BWD 2006/7/EC. The resort beaches exhibited excellent water quality through the whole period. The situation at the city beaches was worst. The “Officers Beach” situated exactly at the area of discharge of Shokarski stormwater canal exhibited concentrations of ammonium and nitrates significantly above the guide value in most of the cases, the lowest compliance with the total coliforms and faecal coliforms guide values and the highest concentrations of Escherichia coli and intestinal enterococci.     

The effects of sand extraction on the macrobenthos of a relict sands area (northern Adriatic Sea): results 12 months post-extraction

Sands for the nourishment of beaches along the Emilia-Romagna coast (northern Adriatic Sea) were dredged from an offshore area characterised by relict sands formed during the last Adriatic post-glacial transgression. The short-term effects of the sand extraction on macrozoobenthic communities were investigated before, during and 1, 6 and 12 months after dredging at three impacted stations and seven control stations. Sand extraction activities did not significantly influence the granulometry and %TOC in the sediment but caused almost complete defaunation at dredging stations. Yet, just 12 months after the extraction, the recolonisation of communities at the impacted stations was at an advanced stage. Unlike other studies on the effects of extraction of marine sand, no significant settlement of opportunistic species was observed. The limited impact of the sand extraction operation on the physical characteristics of the sediment and hydrological-sedimentary characteristics in the relict sand area should aid its rapid recovery and the restoration of the original community in a short period of time (2-4 years after dredging).     

Modeling the impact of wind and waves on suspended particulate matter fluxes in the East Frisian Wadden Sea (southern North Sea)

Suspended particulate matter (SPM) fluxes and dynamics are investigated in the East Frisian Wadden Sea using a coupled modeling system based on a hydrodynamical model [the General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM)], a third-generation wave model [Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN)], and a SPM module attached to GETM. Sedimentological observations document that, over longer time periods, finer sediment fractions disappear from the Wadden Sea Region. In order to understand this phenomenon, a series of numerical scenarios were formulated to discriminate possible influences such as tidal currents, wind-enhanced currents, and wind-generated surface waves. Starting with a simple tidal forcing, the considered scenarios are designed to increase the realism step by step to include moderate and strong winds and waves and, finally, to encompass the full effects of one of the strongest storm surges affecting the region in the last hundred years (Storm Britta in November 2006). The results presented here indicate that moderate weather conditions with wind speeds up to 7.5 m/s and small waves lead to a net import of SPM into the East Frisian Wadden Sea. Waves play only a negligible role during these conditions. However, for stronger wind conditions with speeds above 13 m/s, wind-generated surface waves have a significant impact on SPM dynamics. Under storm conditions, the numerical results demonstrate that sediments are eroded in front of the barrier islands by enhanced wave action and are transported into the back-barrier basins by the currents. Furthermore, sediment erosion due to waves is significantly enhanced on the tidal flats. Finally, fine sediments are flushed out of the tidal basins due to the combined effect of strong erosion by wind-generated waves and a longer residence time in the water column because of their smaller settling velocities compared to coarser sediments.