Simulated climate conditions in Europe during the Marine Isotope Stage 3 stadial

Kjellström, E., Brandefelt, J., Näslund, J.‐O., Smith, B., Strandberg, G., Voelker, A. H. L. & Wohlfarth, B. 2010: Simulated climate conditions in Europe during the Marine Isotope Stage 3 stadial. Boreas, 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2010.00143.x. ISSN 0300‐9483. State‐of‐the‐art climate models were used to simulate climate conditions in Europe during Greenland Stadial (GS) 12 at 44 ka BP. The models employed for these simulations were: (i) a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate model (AOGCM), and (ii) a regional atmospheric climate model (RCM) to dynamically downscale results from the global model for a more detailed investigation of European climate conditions. The vegetation was simulated off‐line by a dynamic vegetation model forced by the climate from the RCM. The resulting vegetation was then compared with the a priori vegetation used in the first simulation. In a subsequent step, the RCM was rerun to yield a new climate more consistent with the simulated vegetation. Forcing conditions included orbital forcing, land–sea distribution, ice‐sheet configuration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations representative for 44 ka BP. The results show a cold climate on the global scale, with global annual mean surface temperatures 5 °C colder than the modern climate. This is still significantly warmer than temperatures derived from the same model system for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Regional, northern European climate is much colder than today, but still significantly warmer than during the LGM. Comparisons between the simulated climate and proxy‐based sea‐surface temperature reconstructions show that the results are in broad agreement, albeit with a possible cold bias in parts of the North Atlantic in summer. Given a prescribed restricted Marine Isotope Stage 3 ice‐sheet configuration, with large ice‐free regions in Sweden and Finland, the AOGCM and RCM model simulations produce a cold and dry climate in line with the restricted ice‐sheet configuration during GS 12. The simulated temperature climate, with prescribed ice‐free conditions in south‐central Fennoscandia, is favourable for the development of permafrost, but does not allow local ice‐sheet formation as all snow melts during summer.     

Analytical estimate of the critical global-warming level for the Antarctic ice sheet mass gain-to-loss transition

We suggested a relatively simple model describing changes in the total balance of the ice sheet mass due to global climate change. Taking into account the basic mechanisms behind change in the ice sheet mass and their relations with temperature, we obtained a nonlinear analytical dependence of the ice sheet thickness on the global near-surface temperature. The behavior of the ice sheet can be split into six regimes. Implementation of some regime or another depends essentially on the initial (present-day) value of the mass balance and the sensitivity parameters of precipitation and ice melt to the temperature. Based on this model, we obtained an analytical estimate of the critical level in global warming, in excess of which the regime of the Antarctic ice sheet gain due to snow accumulation changes to sheet degradation due to more intense growth in ice melting.     

Tracer transport in the Greenland Ice Sheet: constraints on ice cores and glacial history

The climate history and dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet are studied using a coupled model of the depositional provenance and transport of glacier ice, allowing simultaneous prediction of the detailed isotopic stratigraphy of ice cores at all the major Greenland sites. Adopting a novel method for reconstructing the age–depth relationship, we greatly improve the accuracy of semi-Lagrangian tracer tracking schemes and can readily incorporate an age-dependent ice rheology. The larger aim of our study is to impose new constraints on the glacial history of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Leading sources of uncertainty in the climate and dynamic history are encapsulated in a small number of parameters: the temperature and elevation isotopic sensitivities, the glacial–interglacial precipitation contrast and the effective viscosity of ice in the flow law. Comparing predicted and observed ice layering at ice core sites, we establish plausible ranges for the key model parameters, identify climate and dynamic histories that are mutually consistent and recover the past depositional elevation of ice cores to ease interpretation of their climatic records. With the coupled three-dimensional model of ice dynamics and provenance transport we propose a method to place all the ice core records on a common time scale and use discrepancies to adjust the reconstructed climate history. Analysis of simulated GRIP ice layering and borehole temperature profiles confirms that the GRIP record is sensitive to the dynamic as well as to the climatic history, but not enough to strongly limit speculation on the state of the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Eemian. In contrast, our study indicates that the Dye 3 and Camp Century ice cores are extremely sensitive to ice dynamics and greatly constrain Eemian ice sheet reconstructions. We suggest that the maximum Eemian sea-level contribution of the ice sheet was in the range of 3.5–4.5 m.     

轨道及千年尺度上大气CO2浓度与温度变化的时序关系

大气CO2浓度与温度变化的时序关系是第四纪古气候研究的基本问题之一,对于理解目前人类所面临的气候变化问题具有参考价值。两极地区的冰芯既保存了气候变化的信号,也是大气CO2浓度的良好记录载体,为研究大气CO2浓度与温度变化的时序关系提供了重要线索。利用冰芯来重建过去的气候和大气CO2浓度的变化历史最早始于格陵兰地区,但是重建结果的时间跨度较短,目前最长的记录还未能跨越末次间冰期;而且,格陵兰冰芯内沉积了大量的碳酸盐粉尘,它们会与冰芯气泡内的酸发生化学反应生成额外的CO2,从而导致格陵兰冰芯重建的气泡CO2浓度偏差较大,不能真实地反映当时的大气CO2水平。南极冰芯是目前关于大气CO2浓度与温度变化时序关系研究的主要载体,利用大量的冰芯记录建立的冰层年代标尺已经较为精确,但是由于冰芯气泡的锁定深度较难得到精确的估算,使得重建的大气CO2浓度的年代标尺还存在较大的不确定性,这是二者之间的时序关系问题难以解决的最主要因素。此外,随着大量高质量古气候记录的不断积累,更大空间范围(不再局限于南极地区)内的温度变化与大气CO2浓度的时序关系研究在近年来得以开展,但其分析结果受数据处理方法的影响较大,还需要进行更多的对比探索。     

Ice sheet extent and early deglacial history of the southwestern sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet

The offshore and coastal geomorphology of southwest Greenland records evidence for the advance and decay of the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum. Regional ice flow patterns in the vicinity of Sisimiut show an enlarged ice sheet that extended southwestwards on to the shelf, with an ice stream centred over Holsteinsborg dyb. High level periglacial terrain composed of blockfield and tors is dated to between 101 and 142 ka using ²⁶Al and ¹⁰Be cosmogenic exposure ages. These limit the maximum surface elevation of the Last Glacial Maximum ice sheet in this part of southwest Greenland to ca 750–810 m asl, and demonstrate that terrain above this level has been ice free since MIS 6. Last Glacial Maximum ice thickness on the coast of ca 700 m implies that the ice sheet reached the mid to outer continental shelf edge to form the Outer Hellefisk moraines. Exposure dates record ice surface thinning from 21.0 to 9.8 ka, with downwasting rates varying from 0.06 to 0.12 m yr⁻¹. This reflects strong surface ablation associated with increased air temperatures running up to the Bølling Interstadial (GIS1e) at ca 14 ka, and later marine calving under high sea levels. The relatively late retreat of the Itilleq ice stream inland of the present coastline is similar to the pattern observed at Jakobshavn Isbræ, located 250 km north in Disko Bugt, which also retreated from the continental shelf after ca 10 ka. We hypothesise that the ice streams of West Greenland persisted on the inner shelf until the early Holocene because of their considerable ice thickness and greater ice discharge compared with the adjacent ice sheet.     

末次盛冰期东亚气候的成因检测

在国际古气候模拟比较计划设置的标准试验方案下,首先利用中国科学院大气物理研究所的全球大气环流模式（IAP-AGCM）模拟了末次盛冰期东亚气候状况,然后通过4组数值敏感性试验逐一模拟了大气CO₂浓度、海洋表面温度（SST）和海冰、陆地冰盖和地形、东亚植被变化4项强迫因子的单独气候效应,进而对末次盛冰期东亚气候的成因进行了检测。结果表明,末次盛冰期除华南局部略有升温外,中国年均地表气温显著降低,降温幅度总体上向北增大,青藏高原处存在一个降温中心。其中,SST和海冰变化是华南局部略偏暖的主因,它同时导致了东亚其他区域地表气温的显著降低,特别是在东北亚地区;陆地冰盖和地形变化对于东亚地表气温的显著冷却作用主要体现在东亚的西北部;大气CO₂浓度降低会引起东亚地区0.2～0.9℃的普遍降温;相对而言,东亚植被的降温作用（0.5～1.0℃）主要显现在中国40°N以南的区域。与此同时,SST和海冰变化能引起中国东部年均降水一定程度的减少,而大气CO₂浓度、陆地冰盖和地形、东亚植被单独变化均不会显著影响东亚年均降水的分布状况,然而,上述四项因子的共同变化会通过协同作用引起中国东部年均降水的显著减少,西部地区降水则与现在差别不大。此外,末次盛冰期东亚夏季风的显著减弱源于SST和海冰变化,冬季风变化则可归因于SST和海冰、陆地冰盖和地形的变化。     

Response of precipitation over Greenland and the adjacent ocean to North Pacific warm spells during Dansgaard–Oeschger stadials

ABSTRACT Palaeoceanographic reconstructions from the North Atlantic indicate massive ice breakouts from East Greenland near the onset of cold Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) stadials. In contrast to these coolings in the North Atlantic area, a new sea-surface temperature record reveals concomitant warm spells in the northern North Pacific. A sensitivity experiment with an atmospheric general circulation model is used to test the potential impact of sea-surface warmings by 3.5 °C in the North Pacific, on top of otherwise cold stadial climate conditions, on the precipitation regime over the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. The model predicts a maximum response over East Greenland and the Greenland Sea, where a 40% increase in net annual snow accumulation occurs. This remote effect of North Pacific warm spells on the East Greenland snow-accumulation rate may play an important role in generating D–O cycles by rebuilding the ice lost during ice breakouts. In addition, the increased precipitation over the Greenland Sea may help to sustain the D–O stadial climate state.     

现代冰川过程与全球环境气候演变

文章从宏观和微观两个方面扼要阐述了现代冰川过程与全球变化之间的关系。南极冰盖和格陵兰冰盖冰川物质平衡值目前还没有确切结论，虽然它与全球海平面的升降密切相关。山地冰川末端进退变化和冰川物质平衡与全球升温对应较好。极地冰盖现代降水中的稳定同位素比率，主要阴、阳离子、生物有机酸、微粒、超痕量重金属元素、宇宙尘埃以及火山灰等杂质的含量，为认识地球现代环境气候状况提供了丰富的资料。极地冰盖冰芯的分析结果为重建过去气候环境提供了大信息量，高保真度和高分辨率的资料为预测未来气候环境奠定了坚实基础，具有其它任何载体无法取代的优越性。山地冰川的现代和过去气候环境记录，对研究全球和区域性气候环境状况与变迁意义重大     

中国南极冰川学研究10 a回顾与展望

The study of Antarctic glaciology in China is reviewed with the emphasis on the past decade. Much progress has been achieved in the physical characteristics of the Antarctic ice sheet and caps and in the study of climatic and environmental records in Antarctic snow and ice. Through observations of snow profiles of numerous snow-pits and shallow cores in the Wilkes Land and Lambert Glacier basin and along the route of the 1990 International Trans-Antarctica Science Expedition (ITASE), the regional features of snow deposition and densification in Antarctica were revealed. The Nelson Island ice cap in South Shetland Islands was investigated in detail that　greatly enriched the knowledge of glaciers under a sub-Antarctic maritime climate. From the analyses of shallow ice cores and surface snow samples, in particular those taken along the ITASE route, the systematic data of stable isotopes, soluble impurities and heavy metal Pb in present precipitation in Antarctica has been obtained. Some suggestions are proposed through discussing the present hot points in the above fields.     

A Study of Monitoring,Simulation and Climate Impact of Greenland Ice Sheet

Greenland Ice Sheet is one of the two largest ice sheets on the planet. Under the background of climate warming, the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and its contribution to sea level rise has become an international hot issue. The whole melting of the Greenland ice sheet can cause the global sea level to rise by about 7.3 meters. However, the dynamic mechanism that affects the mass balance of ice sheet is still unclear and is the greatest uncertainty source for predicting the rise in sea level in the future. The National Key Research and Development Program of China “A Study of the Monitoring, Simulation and Climate Impact of Greenland Ice Sheet” conducts monitoring and simulation studies on the key processes of instability of the “ice sheet-outlet glacier-sea ice” system, and establishes a satellite-airborne-ground integrated observation system, supporting the numerical simulation and impact research of the ice sheet and its surrounding sea ice, laying the foundation for long-term monitoring and international cooperation in Greenland. This program will work to reduce the uncertainty of sea level change projections by improving the ice sheet dynamic model forced by the ice core records, reveal the driving mechanism of sea ice changes around the ice sheet, focusing on the Northwest Passage, evaluate and forecast the navigation window period. The results of the project will deepen the understanding of the changes and impacts of the Arctic cryosphere, serve the safe navigation and operation of the Northwest Passage, and provide scientific support for the comprehensive risk prevention of coastal zones in China.     

中国南极冰川学研究10年回顾与展望

扼要回顾中国南极冰川学研究历程,当前国际南极冰川学研究背景和发展趋势,并从南极冰盖雪冰物理特征研究,冰盖气候环境记录的现代过程研究以及冰芯研究等方面总结我国南极冰川学研究取得的成果,认为８０年代后期以来,中国南极冰川研究成果显著,尤其是对南冰盖气候环境记录的现代过程研究取得了很大进展,居于国际研究的前沿地位。     

南极冰盖研究最新进展

南极冰盖是地球系统的重要组成部分,在全球气候系统中扮演着重要角色.通过对南极冰盖的研究将有助于了解其在全球气候系统中的作用,并为探讨全球气候过去、现在以及未来的演化提供支撑.总结分析了近年来南极冰盖研究的一些重要进展,并在此基础上对南极冰盖研究领域的一些主要结果、观测事实以及未来变化展开讨论,重点介绍南极物质平衡、冰芯研究、冰下水系统、冰盖数值模拟方面最近的进展,评述未来可能的研究方向和应该关注的问题.     

On the ice age glaciation of the Tibetan highlands and its transformation into a 3-D model

We present an interdisciplinary study on data and modeling intercomparison, concerning the possible existence of a Tibetan ice sheet and its climatological implications during the ice age. In the ice sheet model the fields of ice flow and temperature are calculated, and a highly parameterized formulation of the yearly snow balance is used, defining the forcing at the surface of the ice sheet. The data set used, supplies the height of the equilibrium line of the glaciers (=ELA) and documents the maximum extension of the glaciated areas. With prescribed snow accumulation above the ELA and melting below, the model is integrated for 10 000 model years and the model glaciation is then compared with the data.The main results are: Provided the height of the glacial equilibrium line has been reconstructed correctly, a Tibetan ice sheet can be bult up within 10 000 model years, using moderate rates of precipitation (maximum snow fall: 100 mm/year). Comparison of data and model glaciation suggests an increase of precipitation from the NW to the E of Tibet and from the S to the NE, which reflects the presently observed pattern of the monsoon circulation.     

东南极冰盖/冰架变化监测与预测技术研究

南北极是研究全球变化的关键区域。＂十一五＂期间我国在南极地区系统开展了东南极冰盖/冰架变化监测与预测技术研究,对认识全球气候变化具有重要作用。通过项目实施,建立和发展了一批现场观测体系,发展了冰盖观测新技术并集成应用于东南极冰盖的综合观测,拓展了对冰穹A地区的新认识和新发现;在冰穹A边缘地区钻取的一支浅冰芯恢复了过去约780年的气候记录,记录了东南极地区存在小冰期的明显证据;发展了东南极冰盖积累和等时年层流动模型,研究在冰盖浅层、中层和深部的变化特征,反演了冰穹A地区的古积累率分布。本文概要介绍该项目基本情况。     

Modeling ice sheets from the bottom up

Three facts should guide ice-sheet modeling. (1) Ice height above the bed is controlled by the strength of ice-bed coupling, reducing ice thickness by some 90 percent when coupling vanishes. (2) Ice-bed coupling vanishes along ice streams that end as floating ice shelves and drain up to 90 percent of an ice sheet. (3) Because of (1) and (2), ice sheets can rapidly collapse and disintegrate, thereby removing ice sheets from Earth's climate system and forcing abrupt climate change. The first model of ice-sheet dynamics was developed in Australia and applied to the present Antarctic Ice Sheet in 1970. It treated slow sheet flow, which prevails over some 90 percent of the ice sheet, but is the least dynamic component. The model made top-down calculations of ice velocities and temperatures, based on known surface conditions and an assumed basal geothermal heat flux. In 1972, Joseph Fletcher proposed a six-step research strategy for studying dynamic systems. The first step was identifying the most dynamic components, which for Antarctica are fast ice streams that discharge up to 90 percent of the ice. Ice-sheet models developed at the University of Maine in the 1970s were based on the Fletcher strategy and focused on ice streams, including calving dynamics when ice streams end in water. These models calculated the elevation of ice sheets based in the strength of ice-bed coupling. This was a bottom-up approach that lowered ice elevations some 90 percent when ice-bed coupling vanished. Top-down modeling is able to simulate changes in the size and shape of ice sheets through a whole glaciation cycle, provided the mass balance is treated correctly. Bottom-up modeling is able to produce accurate changes in ice elevations based on changes in ice-bed coupling, provided the force balance is treated correctly. Truly holistic ice-sheet models should synthesize top-down and bottom-up approaches by combining the mass balance with the force balance in ways that merge abrupt changes in stream flow with slow changes in sheet flow. Then discharging 90 percent of the ice by ice streams mobilizes 90 percent of the area so ice sheets can self-destruct, and thereby terminate a glaciation cycle.     

A review of changes monitoring in the Antarctic ice shelves北大核心CSCD

冰架是南极冰盖物质损失的主要出口。南极冰架动态变化和物质平衡的研究对揭示南极地区的气候变化具有重要的参考价值。本文从表面融化、冰流速、前缘崩解、底部融化和物质平衡五个方面入手,对近些年来南极冰架变化监测的研究进展进行梳理和归纳总结,综述了它们的观测方法、观测结果、机制分析及当前面临的问题。极地观测卫星和现场观测网络的发展、冰架多维度综合分析及数值模拟研究的推进,将有助于进一步揭示冰架变化因子之间的耦合作用及其演变机制,为全球增温影响南极冰盖/冰架的物理机制研究及其变化预测提供重要依据。     

Marine geophysical evidence for former expansion and flow of the Greenland Ice Sheet across the north‐east Greenland continental shelf

High‐resolution swath bathymetry and TOPAS sub‐bottom profiler acoustic data from the inner and middle continental shelf of north‐east Greenland record the presence of streamlined mega‐scale glacial lineations and other subglacial landforms that are formed in the surface of a continuous soft sediment layer. The best‐developed lineations are found in Westwind Trough, a bathymetric trough connecting Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden Gletscher and Zachariae Isstrøm to the continental shelf edge. The geomorphological and stratigraphical data indicate that the Greenland Ice Sheet covered the inner‐middle shelf in north‐east Greenland during the most recent ice advance of the Late Weichselian glaciation. Earlier sedimentological and chronological studies indicated that the last major delivery of glacigenic sediment to the shelf and Fram Strait was prior to the Holocene during Marine Isotope Stage 2, supporting our assertion that the subglacial landforms and ice sheet expansion in north‐east Greenland occurred during the Late Weichselian. Glacimarine sediment gravity flow deposits found on the north‐east Greenland continental slope imply that the ice sheet extended beyond the middle continental shelf, and supplied subglacial sediment direct to the shelf edge with subsequent remobilisation downslope. These marine geophysical data indicate that the flow of the Late Weichselian Greenland Ice Sheet through Westwind Trough was in the form of a fast‐flowing palaeo‐ice stream, and that it provides the first direct geomorphological evidence for the former presence of ice streams on the Greenland continental shelf. The presence of streamlined subglacially derived landforms and till layers on the shallow AWI Bank and Northwind Shoal indicates that ice sheet flow was not only channelled through the cross‐shelf bathymetric troughs but also occurred across the shallow intra‐trough regions of north‐east Greenland. Collectively these data record for the first time that ice streams were an important glacio‐dynamic feature that drained interior basins of the Late Weichselian Greenland Ice Sheet across the adjacent continental margin, and that the ice sheet was far more extensive in north‐east Greenland during the Last Glacial Maximum than the previous terrestrial–glacial reconstructions showed. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evolution of sea‐surface conditions on the northwestern Greenland margin during the Holocene

Reconstructions of sea‐surface conditions during the Holocene were achieved on two sediment cores from the northwest Greenland margin (AMD14‐204) and Kane Basin (AMD14‐Kane2B) based on dinoflagellate cyst assemblages. On the northwest Greenland margin, sea‐surface conditions were cold with an extended sea ice cover prior to 7750 cal a bp associated with the end of the deglaciation. A major change occurred around ca. 7750 cal a bp with enhanced influence of warmer water from the West Greenland Current, and optimal sea‐surface conditions were observed around 6000 cal a bp . After 3350 cal a bp , results reflect the establishment of the modern assemblages. In the Kane Basin, sea‐surface conditions were not favourable for dinocyst productivity prior to 7880 cal a bp , as the basin was still largely covered by ice. The presence of warmer water is recorded between 7880 and 7200 cal a bp and the highest primary productivity between 5200 and 2100 cal a bp , but sea‐surface conditions remained cold with an extended sea ice cover throughout the Holocene. Overall, the results from this study revealed the strong influence of meltwater discharges and oceanic current variability on the sea‐surface conditions. Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ice-core records of global climate and environment changes

Precipitation accumulating on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets records several key parameters (temperature, accumulation, composition of atmospheric gases and aerosols) of primary interest for documenting the past global environment over recent climatic cycles and the chemistry of the preindustrial atmosphere. Several deep ice cores from Antarctica and Greenland have been studied over the last fifteen years. In both hemispheres, temperature records (based on stable isotope measurements in water) show the succession of glacial and interglacial periods. However, detailed features of the climatic stages are not identical in Antarctica and in Greenland. A tight link between global climate and greenhouse gas concentrations was discovered, CO₂ and CH₄ concentrations being lower in glacial conditions by about 80 and 0.3 ppmv, respectively, with respect to their pre-industrial levels of 280 and 0.65 ppmv. Coldest stages are also characterized by higher sea-salt and crustal aerosol concentrations. In Greenland, contrary to Antarctica, ice-age ice is alkaline. Gas-derived aerosol (in particular, sulfate) concentrations are generally higher for glacial periods, but not similar in both the hemispheres. Marine and continental biomass-related species are significant in Antarctica and Greenland ice, respectively. Finally, the growing impact of anthropogenic activities on the atmospheric composition is well recorded in both polar regions for long-lived compounds (in particular greenhouse gases), but mostly in Greenland for short-lived pollutants.