Determing the effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events on coastal water quality

The importance of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on regional-scale climate variability is well recognized although the associated effects on local weather patterns are poorly understood. Little work has addressed the ancillary impacts of climate variability at the community level, which require analysis at a local scale. In coastal communities water quality and public health effects are of particular interest. Here we describe the historical influence of ENSO events on coastal water quality in Tampa Bay, Florida (USA) as a test case. Using approximate randomized statistics, we show significant ENSO influences on water quality particularly during winter months, with significantly greater fecal pollution levels during strong El Niño winters and significantly lower levels during strong La Niña winters as compared to neutral conditions. Similar significant patterns were also noted for El Niño and La Niña fall periods. The success of the analysis demonstrates the feasibility of assessing local effects associated with large-scale climate variability. It also highlights the possibility of using ENSO forecasts to predict periods of poor coastal water quality in urban region which local agencies may use to make appropriate prepations.     

Trends and extreme value analysis of rainfall pattern over homogeneous monsoon regions of India

Trends of pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall pattern were studied on decadal basis over different homogeneous monsoon regions in India for the period 1871–2008. It is attempted to understand the relation of monsoon rainfall with the global teleconnections of El Niño and La Niña, for which the correlation analysis has been carried out with Darwin pressure and Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature (Niño 3.4 SST). The correlation analysis inferred that the significant correlations were observed when monsoon rainfall is related to ENSO indices on decadal scale than on annual ones. The study also found that the north-west region is more affected by the moderate El Niño years compared to strong El Niño years. The regions Central North-East and North-East could not make any difference among weak, moderate and strong La Niña events. The authors also have carried out the extreme value analysis over different homogeneous monsoon regions of India as well as for whole India. The results show that the return values of rainfall are increasing with the return periods for the forthcoming 10, 20, 50 and 100 years. The heterogeneity in number of threshold years that were recorded for the extreme rainfall over north-east (humid climatic type) and north-west (arid climatic type) described the climate variability. The results of the present study may be useful for the policy makers in understanding the rainfall exceedance in different return periods for planning the risk management strategies.     

ENSO impacts on salinity in Tampa Bay, Florida

Estuarine salinity distributions reflect a dynamic balance between the processes that control estuarine circulation. At seasonal and longer time scales, freshwater inputs into estuaries represent the primary control on salinity distribution and estuarine circulation. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions influence seasonal rainfall and stream discharge patterns in the Tampa Bay, Florida region. The resulting variability in freshwater input to Tampa Bay influences its seasonal salinity distribution. During El Niño events, ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) are significantly and inversely correlated with salinity in the bay during winter and spring. These patterns reflect the elevated rainfall over the drainage basin and the resulting elevated stream discharge and runoff, which depress salinity levels. Spatially, the correlations are strongest at the head of the bay, especially in bay sections with long residence times. During La Niña conditions, significant inverse correlations between ENSO SSTAs and salinity occur during spring. Dry conditions and depressed stream discharge characterize La Niña winters and springs, and the higher salinity levels during La Niña springs reflect the lower freshwater input levels.     

Interannual variations in length of day with respect to El Niño - Southern Oscillation’s impact (1962–2015)

The objective of research done in this study is to examine the variability of the length of day (LOD) and to investigate its correlation with ENSO (El Niño-Southern oscillation) episodes. For this purpose, the LOD time series (1962–2015), from the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS), is investigated using the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) technique. The results show that the LOD time series is very complex and is composed of several components: the long-term trend explains 95.97% of the original series, the annual harmonic 1.76% and the semi-annual 1.35%. Considering sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) index over the Niño3, Niño4 and Niño3.4 regions, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), the residuals signal, that represents only 0.92% of the initial LOD series, indicate a significant correlation with ENSO occurred during 1965–66, 1972–73, 1982–83 and 1997–98 El Niño events and 1970–71, 1973–74, 1988–89, 2007–08, 2010–11 La Niña ones. This is a pertinent result that suggests that LOD variability is at least partly related to ENSO phenomena.     

Variability of Indian monsoon-ENSO relationship in a 1000-year MRI-CGCM2.2 simulation

There is a close relationship between interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (drought conditions over India accompany warm ENSO events and vice versa). However, recent observations suggest a weakening of this ENSO-monsoon relationship that may be linked to global warming. We report here an analysis of the ENSO-monsoon relationship within the framework of a 1000-year control simulation of the MRI-coupled general circulation model (GCM), MRI-CGCM2.2. An overall correlation between the June-July-August (JJA) Nino3.4 sea surface temperature and the JJA Indian monsoon rainfall is –0.39, with reasonable circulation characteristics associated with the modeled ENSO. The simulated ENSO-monsoon relationship reveals long-term variations, from –0.71 to +0.07, in moving 31-year windows. This modulation in the ENSO-monsoon relationship is associated with decadal variability of the climate system.     

Application of Archimedean copulas to the impact assessment of hydro-climatic variables in semi-arid aquifers of western India

The effects of rainfall and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on groundwater in a semi-arid basin of India were analyzed using Archimedean copulas considering 17 years of data for monsoon rainfall, post-monsoon groundwater level (PMGL) and ENSO Index. The evaluated dependence among these hydro-climatic variables revealed that PMGL-Rainfall and PMGL-ENSO Index pairs have significant dependence. Hence, these pairs were used for modeling dependence by employing four types of Archimedean copulas: Ali-Mikhail-Haq, Clayton, Gumbel-Hougaard, and Frank. For the copula modeling, the results of probability distributions fitting to these hydro-climatic variables indicated that the PMGL and rainfall time series are best represented by Weibull and lognormal distributions, respectively, while the non-parametric kernel-based normal distribution is the most suitable for the ENSO Index. Further, the PMGL-Rainfall pair is best modeled by the Clayton copula, and the PMGL-ENSO Index pair is best modeled by the Frank copula. The Clayton copula-based conditional probability of PMGL being less than or equal to its average value at a given mean rainfall is above 70% for 33% of the study area. In contrast, the spatial variation of the Frank copula-based probability of PMGL being less than or equal to its average value is 35–40% in 23% of the study area during El Niño phase, while it is below 15% in 35% of the area during the La Niña phase. This copula-based methodology can be applied under data-scarce conditions for exploring the impacts of rainfall and ENSO on groundwater at basin scales.     

Pacific coral oxygen isotope and the tropospheric temperature gradient over the Asian monsoon region: a tool to reconstruct past Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Having recognized that it is the tropospheric temperature (TT) gradient rather than the land–ocean surface temperature gradient that drives the Indian monsoon, a new mechanism of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) monsoon teleconnection has been unveiled in which the ENSO influences the Indian monsoon by modifying the TT gradient over the region. Here we show that equatorial Pacific coralline oxygen isotopes reflect TT gradient variability over the Indian monsoon region and are strongly correlated to monsoon precipitation as well as to the length of the rainy season. Using these relationships we have been able to reconstruct past Indian monsoon rainfall variability of the first half of the 20th century in agreement with the instrumental record. Additionally, an older coral oxygen isotope record has been used to reconstruct seasonally resolved summer monsoon rainfall variability of the latter half of the 17th century, indicating that the average annual rainfall during this period was similar to that during the 20th century. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ENSO-coupled precipitation records (1959–2004) based on shells of freshwater bivalve mollusks (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Margaritifera falcata</Emphasis>) from British Columbia

We present the results of sclerochronologically calibrated growth and stable isotope analyses of the freshwater bivalve Margaritifera falcata collected from an agricultural, suburban setting near Vancouver, BC. The oxygen isotope range of shell aragonite can be explained by the temperature range during the growing season, assuming the water δ ¹⁸O composition remained constant. However, shell growth is strongly influenced by local summer precipitation and potentially runoff of nutrient-rich stormwater. About 44% of the variability of annual shell growth can be explained by amounts of local summer (June–September) rainfall. Local winter precipitation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strength during the preceding year exert a weak, but significant control on shell growth. In combination, summer and winter precipitation can explain up to 50% of the variability in annual shell growth. Spectral analyses substantiate the effect of precipitation on shell growth and demonstrate that shell growth and ENSO are coupled by precipitation. Common spectral density was found at periods of 6.5–9 years, particularly between 1985 and 2004. Higher frequency oscillation corresponding to periods of 3–5 years occurred during the early 1970s, early to mid 1980s, and later 1990s. These results suggest that skeletal records of bivalve mollusks provide suitable archives of ENSO-coupled precipitation in areas where other climate proxies such as tree-rings and speleothems may not be available.     

Towards understanding the unusual Indian monsoon in 2009

The Indian summer monsoon season of 2009 commenced with a massive deficit in all-India rainfall of 48% of the average rainfall in June. The all-India rainfall in July was close to the normal but that in August was deficit by 27%. In this paper, we first focus on June 2009, elucidating the special features and attempting to identify the factors that could have led to the large deficit in rainfall. In June 2009, the phase of the two important modes, viz., El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) was unfavourable. Also, the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO) was warmer than in other years and much warmer than the Bay. In almost all the years, the opposite is true, i.e., the Bay is warmer than EEIO in June. It appears that this SST gradient gave an edge to the tropical convergence zone over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, in competition with the organized convection over the Bay. Thus, convection was not sustained for more than three or four days over the Bay and no northward propagations occurred. We suggest that the reversal of the sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between the Bay of Bengal and EEIO, played a critical role in the rainfall deficit over the Bay and hence the Indian region. We also suggest that suppression of convection over EEIO in association with the El Niño led to a positive phase of EQUINOO in July and hence revival of the monsoon despite the El Niño. It appears that the transition to a negative phase of EQUINOO in August and the associated large deficit in monsoon rainfall can also be attributed to the El Niño.     

About the variability in thunderstorm and rainfall activity over India and its association with El Niño and La Niña

Thunderstorms are of much importance in tropics, as this region is considered to have central role in the convective overturn of the atmosphere and play an important role in rainfall activity. It is well known that El Niño and La Niña are well associated with significant climate anomalies at many places around the globe. Therefore, an attempt is made in this study to analyze variability in thunderstorm days and rainfall activity over Indian region and its association with El Niño and La Niña using data of thunderstorm day’s for 64 stations well distributed all over India for the period 1981–2005 (25 years). It is seen that thunderstorm activity is higher and much variable during pre-monsoon (MAM) and southwest monsoon (JJAS) than the rest of the year. Positive correlation coefficients (CCs) are seen between thunderstorms and rainfall except for the month of June during which the onset of the southwest monsoon sets over the country. CCs during winter months are highly correlated. Composite anomalies in thunderstorms during El Niño and La Niña years suggest that ENSO conditions altered the patterns of thunderstorm activity over the country. Positive anomalies are seen during pre-monsoon (MAM) and southwest monsoon months (JAS) during La Niña years. Opposite features are seen in southwest monsoon during El Niño periods, but El Niño favors thunderstorm activity during pre-monsoon months. There is a clear contrast between the role of ENSO during southwest monsoon and post-monsoon on thunderstorm activity over the country. Time series of thunderstorms and precipitation show strong association with similarities in their year-to-year variation over the country.     

Manifestations of motions of the Earth’s pole in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation rhythms

We analyze autocorrelations and power spectra of the time series of monthly mean data characterizing sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific in the years 1920–2013 and show that the rhythms of El Niño–Southern Oscillation can be interpreted as the responses of the climate system to the external quasi-periodic forcing generated by the motions of the Earth’s pole. We conclude that the ENSO phenomenon has no prediction limits.

     

Riverine flood assessment in Jhang district in connection with ENSO and summer monsoon rainfall over Upper Indus Basin for 2010

Pakistan has experienced severe floods over the past decades due to climate variability. Among all the floods, the flood of 2010 was the worst in history. This study focuses on the assessment of (1) riverine flooding in the district Jhang (where Jhelum and Chenab rivers join, and the district was severely flood affected) and (2) south Asiatic summer monsoon rainfall patterns and anomalies considering the case of 2010 flood in Pakistan. The land use/cover change has been analyzed by using Landsat TM 30 m resolution satellite imageries for supervised classification, and three instances have been compared, i.e., pre-flooding, flooding, and post-flooding. The water flow accumulation, drainage density and pattern, and river catchment areas have been calculated by using Shutter Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model 90 m resolution. The standard deviation of south Asiatic summer monsoon rainfall patterns, anomalies and normal (1979–2008) has been calculated for July, August, and September by using rainfall data set of Era interim (0.75° × 0.75° resolution). El Niño Southern Oscillation has also been considered for its role in prevailing rainfall anomalies during the year 2010 over Upper Indus Basin region. Results show the considerable changing of land cover during the three instances in the Jhang district and water content in the rivers. Abnormal rainfall patterns over Upper Indus Basin region prevailed during summer monsoon months in the year 2010 and 2011. The El Niño (2009–2010) and its rapid phase transition to La Niña (2011–2012) may be the cause of severity and disturbances in rainfall patterns during the year 2010. The Geographical Information System techniques and model based simulated climate data sets have been used in this study which can be helpful in developing a monitoring tool for flood management.     

Integration of Tibetan Plateau ice-core temperature records and the influence of atmospheric circulation on isotopic signals in the past century

Temperature signals in ice-core δ¹⁸O on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), particularly in the central and southern parts, continue to be debated because of the large scale of atmospheric circulation. This study presents ten ice-core δ¹⁸O records at an annual resolution, with four (Malan, Muztagata, Guliya, and Dunde) in the northern, three (Puruogangri, Geladaindong, Tanggula) in the central and three (Noijin Kangsang, Dasuopu, East Rongbuk) in the southern TP. Integration shows commonly increasing trends in δ¹⁸O in the past century, featuring the largest one in the northern, a moderate one in the central and the smallest one in the southern TP, which are all consistent with ground-based measurements of temperature. The influence of atmospheric circulation on isotopic signals in the past century was discussed through the analysis of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and of possible connections between sea surface temperature (SST) and the different increasing trends in both ice-core δ¹⁸O and temperature. Particularly, El Niño and the corresponding warm Bay of Bengal (BOB) SST enhance the TP ice-core isotopic enrichment, while La Niña, or corresponding cold BOB SST, causes depletion. This thus suggests a potential for reconstructing the ENSO history from the TP ice-core δ¹⁸O.     

Relation between the variations in the global surface temperature,El Niño/La Niña phenomena,and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

We analyzed directed couplings between the variations in the global surface temperature and modes of the natural climatic variability: the El NiñoLa Niña (ENSO) quasi-periodical phenomena and the long-period Atlantic Mutidecadal Oscillation (AMO) based on the data for 1870–2014. According to the quantitative estimates based on the monthly and annual mean data, the initial data, and the 10-year mean remote data, the most pronounced impact of the ENSO on the global surface temperature and the AMO was found. A weaker bidirectional coupling between the global surface temperature and the AMO is also pronounced. The analysis using running windows revealed an alternating effect of the ENSO and AMO on the variations in the global surface temperature related to the AMO phases.     

Climate controls on nitrate concentration variability in the Abbotsford-Sumas aquifer,British Columbia,Canada

Understanding the linkage between temporal climate variability and groundwater nitrate concentration variability in monitoring well records is key to interpreting the impacts of changes in land-use practices and assessing groundwater quality trends. This study explores the coupling of climate variability and groundwater nitrate concentration variability in the Abbotsford-Sumas aquifer. Over the period of 1992–2009, the average groundwater nitrate concentration in the aquifer remained fairly steady at approximately 15 mg/L nitrate-N. Normalized nitrate data for 19 individual monitoring wells were assessed for a range of intrinsic factors including precipitation, depth to water table, depth below water table, and apparent groundwater age. At a broad scale, there is a negative correlation between nitrate concentration and apparent groundwater age. Each dedicated monitoring well shows unique, non-uniform cyclical variability in nitrate concentrations that appears to correspond with seasonal (1 year) cycles in precipitation as well as longer-period cycles (~5 years), possibly due to ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) or the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern. These precipitation cycles appear to influence nitrate concentrations by approximately ±30 % of the critical concentration (10 mg/L NO₃–N). Not all wells show direct correlation due to many complex local-scale factors that influence nitrate leaching including spatially and temporally variable nutrient management practices and soil/crop nitrogen dynamics (anthropogenic and agronomic factors).     

Comparison of 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 El Niño effects on the shallow-water fish assemblage of the Patos Lagoon estuary (Brazil)

Meteorological impacts of El Niño events of 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 were observed in locations throughout the world. In southern Brazil, El Niño events are associated with increased rainfall and higher freshwater discharge into Patos Lagoon, a large coastal lagoon that empties into the Atlantic Ocean. Based on interdecadal meteorological and biological data sets encompassing the two strongest El Niño events of the last 50 yr, we evaluated the hypothesis that El Niño-induced hydrological changes are a major driving force controlling the interannual variation in the structure and dynamics of fishes in the Patos Lagoon estuary. High rainfall in the drainage basin of the lagoon coincided with low salinity in the estuarine area during both El Niño episodes. Total rainfall in the drainage basin was higher (767 versus 711 mm) and near-zero salinity conditions in the estuarine area lasted about 3 mo longer during the 1997–1998 El Niño event compared with the 1982–1983 event. Hydrological changes triggered by both El Niño events had similar relationships to fish species composition and diversity patterns, but the 1997–1998 event appeared to have stronger effects on the species assemblage. Although shifts in species composition were qualitatively similar during the two El Niño events, distance between El Niño and non-El Niño assemblage multivariate centroids was greater during the 1996–2000 sampling period compared with the 1979–1983 period. We provide a conceptual model of the principal mechanisms and processes connecting the atmospheric-oceanographic interactions triggered by the El Niño phenomena and their effect on the estuarine fish assemblage.     

中国水汽输送年际和年代际变化研究进展

大气中的水汽输送对于全球的水分循环、气候系统、生态环境等具有重要意义。水汽输送是影响中国旱涝空间分布的重要因素，其年际和年代际变化与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动、海温、北大西洋涛动、太平洋年代际涛动等因素对东亚大气环流的调控作用有关。本文就近期关于中国地区水汽输送年际和年代际变化的部分研究工作进行了回顾和评述，包括影响中国东部降水年际和年代际变化的水汽输送机制、影响梅雨特征年代际变化的水汽输送机制、热带海温对中国上空水汽输送的影响机制等问题。此外，本文回顾了近期与青藏高原地区水汽输送机制有关的研究进展。     

Tropospheric biennial oscillation and south Asian summer monsoon rainfall in a coupled model

In this study Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO) and south Asian summer monsoon rainfall are examined in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) hindcast. High correlation between the observations and model TBO index suggests that the model is able to capture most of the TBO years. Spatial patterns of rainfall anomalies associated with positive TBO over the south Asian region are better represented in the model as in the observations. However, the model predicted rainfall anomaly patterns associated with negative TBO years are improper and magnitudes are underestimated compared to the observations. It is noted that positive (negative) TBO is associated with La Niña (El Niño) like Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the model. This leads to the fact that model TBO is El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) driven, while in the observations Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also plays a role in the negative TBO phase. Detailed analysis suggests that the negative TBO rainfall anomaly pattern in the model is highly influenced by improper teleconnections allied to IOD. Unlike in the observations, rainfall anomalies over the south Asian region are anti-correlated with IOD index in CFSv2. Further, summer monsoon rainfall over south Asian region is highly correlated with IOD western pole than eastern pole in CFSv2 in contrast to the observations. Altogether, the present study highlights the importance of improving Indian Ocean SST teleconnections to south Asian summer rainfall in the model by enhancing the predictability of TBO. This in turn would improve monsoon rainfall prediction skill of the model.     

Changing rainfall inputs in the Volta basin: implications for water sharing in Ghana

We present evidence from the analysis of gridded annual rainfall data that, increased variability and declining rainfall totals are the main cause of declining lake levels in the Volta basin above the Akosombo Dam. West Africa has undergone a period of diminished rainfall, punctuated by a series of severe droughts and marked by a shift in rainfall regime. As a result, lake levels behind the hydro-electric impoundment have fluctuated so widely at times that, power has had to be rationed. The trends in the spatial and temporal variability of annual rainfall in the riparian nations explain the low impoundment levels frequent in recent decades. The drying of Burkina Faso and Mali is particularly marked and synchronous to an apparent shift in the rainfall regime in Ghana towards a longer dry season and vanishing short dry spell, the effects which tend to negate each other. The various regional and temporal associations between El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) are investigated as a possible cause of variation across the basin. The strengths of these associations and low frequency shifts suggest an unfortunate correspondence between national and climatological boundaries which may serve to heighten regional political tensions resulting from ENSO effects. Lack of re-investment in the Akosombo Dam as a result of management policies, political and pre-construction contractual agreements have all conspired in recent decades to make these hydro-climatological changes more devastating.     

Palaeoproductivity evolution in the centre of the western Pacific warm pool during the last 250 ka

To reconstruct the palaeoproductivity evolution history of the centre of the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) over the last 250 ka, multi‐proxies were analysed in sediment core WP7 recovered from the Ontong–Java Plateau. Palaeoproductivity evolution at the centre of the WPWP during the last 250 ka is closely related to glacial–interglacial cycles and the insolation controlled by precession. The glacial higher primary productivity relative to the interglacial conditions could have resulted from both thermocline shoaling associated with persistent El Niňo‐like conditions and the increased influx of dust resulting from intensified winter monsoon together with important changes in the thermocline. The minimum primary productivity values during the last three terminations could be resulted from deglacial thermocline deepening and intensified stratification associated with persistent La Niña‐like conditions, and the concurrent Neogloboquadrina dutertrei δ¹³C minimum events probably reflect the chemical signatures of Subantarctic Mode Water and Antarctic Intermediate Water. In addition, primary productivity values are also controlled by the thermocline variations resulting from El Niño/La Niña‐Southern Oscillation processes responding to precession forcing, and lead the δ¹⁸O by about 4 ka. The 33.1 ka, 19 ka and “half‐precession” periods are prominent in the palaeoproductivity records. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.