Sensitivity of MM5 and WRF mesoscale model predictions of surface winds in a typhoon to planetary boundary layer parameterizations

Sea surface winds and coastal winds, which have a significant influence on the ocean environment, are very difficult to predict. Although most planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations have demonstrated the capability to represent many meteorological phenomena, little attention has been paid to the precise prediction of winds at the lowest PBL level. In this study, the ability to simulate sea winds of two widely used mesoscale models, fifth-generation mesoscale model (MM5) and weather research and forecasting model (WRF), were compared. In addition, PBL sensitivity experiments were performed using Medium-Range Forecasts (MRF), Eta, Blackadar, Yonsei University (YSU), and Mellor–Yamada–Janjic (MYJ) during Typhoon Ewiniar in 2006 to investigate the optimal PBL parameterizations for predicting sea winds accurately. The horizontal distributions of winds were analyzed to discover the spatial features. The time-series analysis of wind speed from five sensitivity experimental cases was compared by correlation analysis with surface observations. For the verification of sea surface winds, QuikSCAT satellite 10-m daily mean wind data were used in root-mean-square error (RMSE) and bias error (BE) analysis. The MRF PBL using MM5 produced relatively smaller wind speeds, whereas YSU and MYJ using WRF produced relatively greater wind speeds. The hourly surface observations revealed increasingly strong winds after 0300 UTC, July 10, with most of the experiments reproducing observations reliably. YSU and MYJ using WRF showed the best agreements with observations. However, MRF using MM5 demonstrated underestimated winds. The conclusions from the correlation analysis and the RMSE and BE analysis were compatible with the above-mentioned results. However, some shortcomings were identified in the improvements of wind prediction. The data assimilation of topographical data and asynoptic observations along coast lines and satellite data in sparsely observed ocean areas should make it possible to improve the accuracy of sea surface wind predictions.     

Sensitivity of high-resolution tropical cyclone intensity forecasts to surface flux parameterization

Surface flux parameterization schemes used in current dynamic models are primarily based upon measurements at low and moderate wind speeds. Recent studies show that these parameterization schemes may be incorrect at high wind speeds (e.g., tropical cyclone forecasts). Five high-resolution numerical model experiments are designed to assess the sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensity forecasts to changes in the surface flux parameterization. The sensitivity experiments are conducted by running 48 h forecasts of the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) for six selected tropical cyclones with individual modifications to surface flux calculation that include: (1) limiting the surface stress for wind speeds greater than 33 m s⁻¹, or 64 knots (kt); (2) computing the stress at the top of the model bottom grid layer (MBGL) by averaging results from surface layer similarity and turbulence mixing parameterization for wind speeds greater than 33 m s⁻¹; (3) increasing the roughness lengths for heat and moisture transfer by a factor of ten; (4) setting the roughness lengths for heat and moisture transfer to 1/10 of the momentum roughness length; and (5) cooling the sea surface temperature (SST) by a prescribed rate at high winds. Averaged responses for the six storms to these sensitivity tests show that: (i) the limit on surface stress at high winds significantly increases the cyclone intensity in 48 h forecasts; (ii) the averaged surface layer stress at high winds increases the cyclone intensity but to a much lesser degree than limiting the surface stress; (iii) large increases in the roughness lengths for heat and moisture transfer are needed to significantly impact the intensity forecast; (iv) the different roughness length formula for surface transfer coefficients notably increases C _h/C _d ratio from 0.59 to 0.79 for 25 m s⁻¹ and 0.41 to 0.75 for 50 m s⁻¹ that significantly increases the predicted cyclone intensity; and (v) cooling of the SST by −5.8°C in 48 h reduces the maximum surface wind speed by −32 kt, or 16.5 m s⁻¹, at 48 h forecast. These results suggest that a surface flux parameterization scheme suitable for tropical cyclone intensity forecast must correctly model the leveling-off character of surface stress and C _h/C _d ratio at high winds. All modifications to surface flux calculation have little influence on 48 h track forecasts, even though they may significantly impact the intensity forecasts.

Impact of bogus vortex for track and intensity prediction of tropical cyclone

The initialization scheme designed to improve the representation of a tropical cyclone in the initial condition is tested during Orissa super cyclone (1999) over Bay of Bengal using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University — National Center for Atmospheric Research (Penn State — NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5). A series of numerical experiments are conducted to generate initial vortices by assimilating the bogus wind information into MM5. Wind speed and location of the tropical cyclone obtained from best track data are used to define maximum wind speed, and centre of the storm respectively, in the initial vortex. The initialization scheme produced an initial vortex that was well adapted to the forecast model and was much more realistic in size and intensity than the storm structure obtained from the NCEP analysis. Using this scheme, the 24-h, 48-h, and 72-h forecast errors for this case was 63, 58, and 46 km, respectively, compared with 120, 335, and 550 km for the non-vortex initialized case starting from the NCEP global analysis. When bogus vortices are introduced into initial conditions, the significant improvements in the storm intensity predictions are also seen. The impact of the vortex size on the structure of the initial vortex is also evaluated. We found that when the radius of maximum wind (RMW) of the specified vortex is smaller than that of which can be resolved by the model, the specified vortex is not well adapted by the model. In contrast, when the vortex is sufficiently large for it to be resolved on horizontal grid, but not so large to be unrealistic, more accurate storm structure is obtained.     

Sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensification to boundary layer and convective processes

This study examines the role of the parameterization of convection, planetary boundary layer (PBL) and explicit moisture processes on tropical cyclone intensification. A high-resolution mesoscale model, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) model MM5, with two interactive nested domains at resolutions 90 km and 30 km was used to simulate the Orissa Super cyclone, the most intense Indian cyclone of the past century. The initial fields and time-varying boundary variables and sea surface temperatures were taken from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) (FNL) one-degree data set. Three categories of sensitivity experiments were conducted to examine the various schemes of PBL, convection and explicit moisture processes. The results show that the PBL processes play crucial roles in determining the intensity of the cyclone and that the scheme of Mellor-Yamada (MY) produces the strongest cyclone. The combination of the parameterization schemes of MY for planetary boundary layer, Kain-Fritsch2 for convection and Mixed-Phase for explicit moisture produced the best simulation in terms of intensity and track. The simulated cyclone produced a minimum sea level pressure of 930 hPa and a maximum wind of 65 m s⁻¹ as well as all of the characteristics of a mature tropical cyclone with an eye and eye-wall along with a warm core structure. The model-simulated precipitation intensity and distribution were in good agreement with the observations. The ensemble mean of all 12 experiments produced reasonable intensity and the best track.     

A statistical cyclone intensity prediction (SCIP) model for the Bay of Bengal

A statistical model for predicting the intensity of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal has been proposed. The model is developed applying multiple linear regression technique. The model parameters are determined from the database of 62 cyclones that developed over the Bay of Bengal during the period 1981–2000. The parameters selected as predictors are: initial storm intensity, intensity changes during past 12 hours, storm motion speed, initial storm latitude position, vertical wind shear averaged along the storm track, vorticity at 850 hPa, Divergence at 200 hPa and sea surface temperature (SST). When the model is tested with the dependent samples of 62 cyclones, the forecast skill of the model for forecasts up to 72 hours is found to be reasonably good. The average absolute errors (AAE) are less than 10 knots for forecasts up to 36 hours and maximum forecast error of order 14 knots occurs at 60 hours and 72 hours. When the model is tested with the independent samples of 15 cyclones (during 2000 to 2007), the AAE is found to be less than 13 knots (ranging from 5.1 to 12.5 knots) for forecast up to 72 hours. The model is found to be superior to the empirical model proposed by Roy Bhowmik et al (2007) for the Bay of Bengal.     

区域气候模式在中国西北地区气温和降水长时间序列模拟的误差分析

气温和降水微小的变化都可能引起中国西北地区脆弱生态环境空间格局剧烈变化.由于西北地区气象站点分布稀疏,站点观测结果难于完全代表西北地区复杂地貌的气象要素空间分布格局.区域气候模式模拟可以弥补现有观测资料的不足,但模式模拟存在的误差,往往制约着西北区域气候变化评估工作.本文在CN05格点数据和站点数据基础上,从空间格局、极值模拟等方面对高分辨率WRF模式数据气温和降水模拟精度进行评估,假定偏差恒定基础上,使用分类回归树模型建立偏差预测模型.结果表明:CN05数据和WRF模式多年年平均气温和多年平均年降水数据空间格局基本一致,但WRF模式结果空间格局更加细致.WRF模式结果在山区和湖泊地区降水偏高估,气温和降水距平在新疆地区相对于其他地区变化较为一致;95%分位数的降水在甘肃和新疆地区模拟结果好于宁夏、青海和陕西;5%和95%分位数气温,WRF模式大部分站点表现为暖偏差,而CN05数据表现为冷偏差;不同的地貌单元区域气温和降水的偏差时间序列存在一定的相关性.在西北五省区气温和降水的分类树模型中,由于高程和地形复杂度对偏差预测模型影响较大,无法在整个西北地区建立统一的误差预测模型.     

The sensitivity to the microphysical schemes on the skill of forecasting the track and intensity of tropical cyclones using WRF-ARW model

The Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model is used to simulate Very Severe Cyclonic Storms (VSCS) Hudhud (7–13 October, 2014), Phailin (8–14 October, 2013) and Lehar (24–29 November, 2013) to investigate the sensitivity to microphysical schemes on the skill of forecasting track and intensity of the tropical cyclones for high-resolution (9 and 3 km) 120-hr model integration. For cloud resolving grid scale (<5 km) cloud microphysics plays an important role. The performance of the Goddard, Thompson, LIN and NSSL schemes are evaluated and compared with observations and a CONTROL forecast. This study is aimed to investigate the sensitivity to microphysics on the track and intensity with explicitly resolved convection scheme. It shows that the Goddard one-moment bulk liquid-ice microphysical scheme provided the highest skill on the track whereas for intensity both Thompson and Goddard microphysical schemes perform better. The Thompson scheme indicates the highest skill in intensity at 48, 96 and 120 hr, whereas at 24 and 72 hr, the Goddard scheme provides the highest skill in intensity. It is known that higher resolution domain produces better intensity and structure of the cyclones and it is desirable to resolve the convection with sufficiently high resolution and with the use of explicit cloud physics. This study suggests that the Goddard cumulus ensemble microphysical scheme is suitable for high resolution ARW simulation for TC’s track and intensity over the BoB. Although the present study is based on only three cyclones, it could be useful for planning real-time predictions using ARW modelling system.     

Effect of estuarine flow on ocean circulation using a coupled coastal-bay estuarine model: an application to the 1999 Orissa cyclone

A coupled coastal-bay estuarine numerical model is described and applied to investigate the combination of wind-estuarine driven circulation off the Orissa coast. The model is based on coupling of a 2-dimensional estuarine model with a 3-dimensional coastal-bay model. The models are linked through the elevation at the interface. Using the coupled model, the numerical experiments are carried out to elicit the dynamical linking between the estuarine outflow and the coastal ocean to simulate the ensuing adjoining coastal circulation. During the southwest monsoon, it is noticed that the estuarine discharge from the northern head-bay river system and the river systems that join the Bay of Bengal along the Orissa coast would sufficiently modify the coastal circulation along the coast. Numerical experiments are also carried for the model simulation of surges generated by the 1999 Orissa cyclone. It is shown that the estuarine system would influence significantly on surge development and associated inundation through the rivers.     

Implications of vortex initialization and model spin-up in tropical cyclone prediction using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model

The roles of vortex initialization and model spin-up in tropical cyclone (TC) prediction using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) Model are studied through a case study of NARGIS (2008) cyclone over Bay of Bengal. ARW model is designed to have three two-way interactive nested domains, and a suite of 36 numerical experiments are performed with three values of maximum wind (MW), four of radius of maximum wind (RMW), and three of α and one experiment without vortex initialization. The results indicate that vortex initialization is important toward realistic representation of initial structure and location of cyclone vortex. Model spin-up during the first 18–24 h of model integration lead to faster intensification than of the real atmosphere, thus a weaker initial vortex evolved more realistically. Three experiments from vortex initialization produced MW and RMW nearer to the observations, but none of these produced a good prediction due to unrealistic intensification during model spin-up. A weaker vortex with intensity less than 50 % than observations produced the best forecast in terms of intensity, track, and landfall. The results suggest that slightly larger (~30 %) RMW than observations with α as ?0.5 (for 81 km model resolution) that produces weaker vortex is to be implemented in the design of bogus vortex. This study assesses the merits of TC bogus scheme in ARW model, illustrates the need for vortex initialization, and analyzes the spin-up problem in cold-start model simulations of TC prediction.     

A review of cyclone track shifts over the Great Lakes of North America: implications for storm surges

Natural Hazards - Cyclone tracks over the Great Lakes of North America shift, both East–West as well as North–South. The reasons for the shifts are various small-scale as well as...     

复合形模拟退火算法及其在水泥土墙优化设计中的应用

将传统优化方法中的复合形法和智能优化方法中的模拟退火算法有机结合,得到一种新型的智能计算方法-复合形模拟退火算法。仿真分析表明它比单一的复合形法和模拟退火算法搜索性能更优。按照我国现行规范建立了水泥土墙优化设计数学模型,探讨了提出的复合形模拟退火算法在水泥土墙支护结构参数优化设计中的应用。给出了工程计算实例,其计算结果验证了方法的可行性和可靠性。还讨论了基坑内被动土压力区的加固对水泥土墙的嵌固深度和有效宽度的影响。     

Evaluation of the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model over Guyana

In the present study, diagnostic studies were undertaken using station-based rainfall data sets of selected stations of Guyana to understand the variability of rainfall. The multidecadal variation in rainfall of coastal station Georgetown and inland station Timehri has shown that the rainfall variability was less during the May–July (20–30%) of primary wet season compared to the December--January (60–70%) of second wet season. The rainfall analysis of Georgetown based on data series from 1916 to 2007 shows that El Niño/La Niña has direct relation with monthly mean rainfall of Guyana. The impact is more predominant during the second wet season December--January. A high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model was made operational to generate real-time forecasts up to 84 h based on 00 UTC global forecast system (GFS), NCEP initial condition. The model real-time rainfall forecast during July 2010 evaluation has shown a reasonable skill of the forecast model in predicting the heavy rainfall events and major circulation features for day-to-day operational forecast guidance. In addition to the operational experimental forecast, as part of model validation, a few sensitivity experiments are also conducted with the combination of two cloud cumulus (Kain--Fritsch (KF) and Betts–Miller–Janjic (BMJ)) and three microphysical schemes (Ferrier et al. WSM-3 simple ice scheme and Lin et al.) for heavy rainfall event occurred during 28–30 May 2010 over coastal Guyana and tropical Hurricane ‘EARL’ formed during 25 August–04 September 2010 over east Caribbean Sea. It was observed that there are major differences in the simulations of heavy rainfall event among the cumulus schemes, in spite of using the same initial and boundary conditions and model configuration. Overall, it was observed that the combination of BMJ and WSM-3 has shown qualitatively close to the observed heavy rainfall event even though the predicted amounts are less. In the case of tropical Hurricane ‘EARL’, the forecast track in all the six experiments based on 00 UTC of 28 August 2010 initial conditions for the forecast up to 84 h has shown that the combination of KF cumulus and Ferrier microphysics scheme has shown less track errors compared to other combinations. The overall average position errors for all the six experiments taken together work out to 103 km in 24, 199 km in 48, 197 km in 72 and 174 km in 84 h.     

Impact and response of southwest Florida mangroves to the 2004 hurricane season

Although hurricane disturbance is a natural occurrence in mangrove forests, the effect of widespread human alterations on the resiliency of estuarine habitats is unknown. The resiliency of mangrove forests in southwest Florida to the 2004 hurricane season was evaluated by determining the immediate response of mangroves to a catastrophic hurricane in areas with restricted and unrestricted tidal connections. The landfall of Hurricane Charley, a category 4 storm, left pronounced disturbances to mangrove forests on southwest Florida barrier islands. A significant and negative relationship between canopy loss and distance from the eyewall was observed. While a species-specific response to the hurricane was expected, no significant differences were found among species in the size of severely impacted trees. In the region farthest from the eyewall, increases in canopy density indicated that refoliation and recovery occurred relatively quickly. There were no increases or decreases in canopy density in regions closer to the eyewall where there were complete losses of crown structures. In pre-hurricane surveys, plots located in areas of management concern (i.e., restricted connection) had significantly lower stem diameter at breast height and higher stem densities than plots with unrestricted connection. These differences partially dictated the severity of effect from the hurricane. There were also significantly lower red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle) seedling densities in plots with restricted connections. These observations suggest that delays in forest recovery are possible in severely impacted areas if either the delivery of propagules or the production of seedlings is reduced by habitat fragmentation.     

Thermoelastic model of minerals: application to Al2O3

 A thermoelastic model for calculating the high-pressure and high-temperature properties of isotropic solids is presented by extending the formalism by Thomsen and combining the resulting one with the Vinet model for static lattice and the Debye model for lattice vibration. Applying it to polycrystalline corundum, we have shown that the calculated values of entropy and heat capacity at constant pressure are in agreement with literature values to 2325 K at zero pressure and that the calculated values of thermal expansivity agree reasonably with experimental data to 1100 K at zero pressure. The model reproduces experimental data of sound velocities v _p and v _s of compressional and shear waves to 1825 K at zero pressure and those to 62 GPa at room temperature, and it reproduces also experimental shock-wave equation of state to 150 GPa. The velocity correlation (∂ln v _s /∂ln v _p ) _S was found to have weak pressure and temperature dependences and the results under lower mantle conditions are compared with those of magnesian and calcium silicate perovskites and magnesiowüstite, and the PREM values of the Earth's lower mantle. Received: 12 February 2000 / Accepted: 15 July 2000     

A kinetic model of metamorphism: an application to siliceous dolomites

We use a kinetic model of a metamorphic system to study the effect of competing rates of reaction, fluid injection, and heating on the evolution of the reaction pathway in temperature/composition space at constant pressure. We show that for rocks in contact with mixed volatile (e.g., CO₂-H₂O) fluids the reaction path may be quite different from what is expected from equilibrium-based petrologic models. Equilibrium-based models, used to understand the development of rock systems undergoing mineral reactions during a metamorphic event, rely on the Gibbs phase rule and only consider stable phases. For constant pressure, the temperature-composition paths follow univariant curves and significant reactions may occur at invariant points. By contrast, the more general kinetic treatment is not constrained by equilibrium, although with the proper competing rates equilibrium is a possible endmember of the kinetic approach. The deviation from equilibrium depends on the competing rates of reaction, heating, and fluid injection. A key element required by the kinetic approach is the inclusion of metastable reactions in the formulation, whereas such reactions are irrelevant for equilibrium-based models. Metastable reactions are often involved in a complex interplay with common prograde stable metamorphic reactions. We present model results for the well-studied CaO-MgO-SiO₂-CO₂-H₂O (CMS) system to show how the system evolves under kinetic control. Our simulations and discussion focus on the behavior of the CMS system under a number of closed and open system conditions. Special attention is paid to closed system behavior in the vicinity of the (first) isobaric invariant point (with Dol, Qtz, Tlc, Cal, and Tr). Also, for open systems with massive fluid infiltration we consider heating rates varying from contact to regional metamorphic conditions. For some geologically reasonable rates of reactions, heating, and fluid injection, our results demonstrate that equilibrium conditions may be significantly overstepped in metamorphic systems. We used overall mineral reactions in this model with rates based on experimental results. Future models could rely on more fundamental dissolution and precipitation reactions. Such an extension would require additional kinetic rate data, as well as mineral solubilities in mixed volatile fluids.Editorial responsibility: J. Hoefs