Variations of Indian and African monsoons induced by insolation changes at 6 and 9.5 kyr BP

This study investigates the role of insolation in controlling the Indian and African monsoon evolutions during the Holocene using coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations of 0, 6, 9.5 kyr BP climates, for which only the variations of Earth’s orbital configuration are considered. The two monsoon systems are enhanced at 6 and 9.5 kyr BP, compared to 0 kyr BP, as a result of the intensified seasonal cycle of insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. The analysis of daily climatologies indicates that even though the length of the “celestial” summer season is shorter at 9.5 kyr BP, the rainy season is longer than at present. Emphasis is put on the impact of the precession on the seasonality, which partly explains why the relative amplification of the Indian and African monsoon varies between 9.5 and 6 kyr BP. Moreover, the changes in snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau play a critical role in reinforcing the 9.5 kyr BP monsoon in India during spring. The results suggest that the teleconnection between convection over India and subsidence over the Mediterranean regions, through the Rodwell and Hoskins mechanism, has an impact on the development of the African monsoon at 9.5 kyr BP.     

Rapid transitions and ultra-low frequency behaviour in a 40 kyr integration with a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity

 A 40 kyr integration with the coupled atmosphere/ocean/sea-ice model of intermediate complexity ECBilt for present boundary conditions has been performed. The climate of ECBilt displays quasi-periodical behaviour with a period of approximately 13 kyr. The quasi-periodical behaviour is characterized by large changes in the overturning cell in the Southern Ocean. The southern cell fluctuates between two quasi-stationary states, with accompaning changes in the atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere. The transition between these states is rapid and resembles the polar halocline catastrophes and flushes as observed in ocean general circulation models under mixed boundary conditions. The sea-ice influence on both the surface heat and fresh water flux appears to be crucial for the existence and the prolongation of the quasi-stationary states. The atmospheric circulation of those two quasi-stationary states displays large regional differences over Antarctica, resulting in even opposite surface air temperature trends for certain locations during the transition from one state to another. Received: 7 October 1999 / Accepted: 28 August 2000     

Decadal Variability of Extreme Precipitation Days over Northwest China from 1963 to 2012

Daily precipitation data from 153 meteorological stations over Northwest China during summer from 1963 to 2012 were selected to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme summer precipitation frequency. The results show that the extreme precipitation frequency was regional dependent. Southern Gansu, northern Qinghai, and southern Shaanxi provinces exhibited a high extreme precipitation frequency and were prone to abrupt changes in the frequency. Northwest China was further divided into three sub-regions (northern, central, and southern) based on cluster analysis of the 50-yr extreme precipitation frequency series for each meteorological station. The extreme precipitation frequency changes were manifested in the northern region during the late 1970s and in the central region from the end of the 1980s to the 1990s. The southern region fluctuated on a timescale of quasi-10 yr. This study also explored the mechanism of changes in extreme precipitation frequency. The results demonstrate that stratification stability, atmospheric water vapor content, and upward motion all affected the changes in extreme precipitation frequency.     

A GCM Study on the Mechanism of Seasonal Abrupt Changes

ＡＧＣＭＳｔｕｄｙｏｎｔｈｅＭｅｃｈａｎｉｓｍｏｆＳｅａｓｏｎａｌＡｂｒｕｐｔＣｈａｎｇｅｓＷａｎｇＨｕｉｊｕｎ（王会军）ａｎｄＺｅｎｇＱｉｎｇｃｕｎ（曾庆存）（ＬＡＳＧ，ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＡｔｍｏｓｐｈｅｒｉｃＰｈｙｓｉｃｓ，ＣｈｉｎｅｓｅＡｃ...     

Thermal effects of urbanization and industrialization in the boundary layer: A numerical study

A numerical model developed by Pandolfo was used to compute changes in temperature resulting from changes in the physical characteristics of the surface due to urbanization and from the addition of radiatively active pollutants, such as a carbonaceous aerosol, that are characteristic of urbanization and industrialization. The model was simplified here by (1) omitting advection, and (2) by holding the pollutant concentration constant in time. The results show that changes in the physical properties of the surface, and not pollutants are the dominant factors in creating the urban heat island. Changes in the vertical thermal structure are caused by changes in the surface temperature near the surface and by the presence of pollutants at higher levels.     

Quantifying the role of biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks in climate change: coupled model simulations for 6000 years BP and comparison with palaeodata for northern Eurasia and northern Africa

 The LMD AGCM was iteratively coupled to the global BIOME1 model in order to explore the role of vegetation-climate interactions in response to mid-Holocene (6000 y BP) orbital forcing. The sea-surface temperature and sea-ice distribution used were present-day and CO₂ concentration was pre-industrial. The land surface was initially prescribed with present-day vegetation. Initial climate “anomalies” (differences between AGCM results for 6000 y BP and control) were used to drive BIOME1; the simulated vegetation was provided to a further AGCM run, and so on. Results after five iterations were compared to the initial results in order to identify vegetation feedbacks. These were centred on regions showing strong initial responses. The orbitally induced high-latitude summer warming, and the intensification and extension of Northern Hemisphere tropical monsoons, were both amplified by vegetation feedbacks. Vegetation feedbacks were smaller than the initial orbital effects for most regions and seasons, but in West Africa the summer precipitation increase more than doubled in response to changes in vegetation. In the last iteration, global tundra area was reduced by 25% and the southern limit of the Sahara desert was shifted 2.5 °N north (to 18 °N) relative to today. These results were compared with 6000 y BP observational data recording forest-tundra boundary changes in northern Eurasia and savana-desert boundary changes in northern Africa. Although the inclusion of vegetation feedbacks improved the qualitative agreement between the model results and the data, the simulated changes were still insufficient, perhaps due to the lack of ocean-surface feedbacks. Received: 5 December 1996 / Accepted: 16 June 1997     

郑州市城市气候特征分析

利用郑州城市生态站与郑州国家基准气候站2004-2007年的温、湿气象要素资料,分析了郑州城市干、热岛强度的季节变化及日变化。结果发现：郑州城市热岛强度秋季大于春季,日变化则具有夜间强、白昼弱的特点;干岛强度同样是秋季大于春季,日变化特点也为夜间强,白天弱。     

Sensitivity Analysis of Discharge in the Arctic Usa Basin, East-European Russia

The high sensitivity of the Arctic implies that impact of climate change and related environmental changes on river discharge can be considerable. Sensitivity of discharge to changes in precipitation, temperature, permafrost and vegetation, was studied in the Usa basin, Northeast-European Russia. For this purpose, a distributed hydrological model (RHINEFLOW) was adapted. Furthermore, the effect of climate change simulated by a GCM (HADCM2S750 integration) on runoff was assessed, including indirect effects of permafrost thawing and changes in vegetation distribution. The study shows that discharge in the Usa basin is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation and temperature. The effect of precipitation change is present throughout the year, while temperature changes affect discharge only in seasons when temperature fluctuates around the freezing point (April and October). Discharge is rather sensitive to changes in vegetation. Sensitivity to permafrost occurrence is high in winter, because infiltration and consequently base flow increases if permafrost melts. The effect of climate change simulated by the scenario on discharge was significant. Peak flow can both decrease (by 22%) and increase (by 19%) comparedwith present-day, depending on the amount of winter precipitation. Also, runoff peaks earlier in the season. These results can have implications for the magnitude and timing of the runoff peak, break-up and water-levels.     

喀左日光温室内气温变化规律及其应用

根据2003年12月至2004年3月喀左日光温室大棚内气温连续监测的气象资料,对棚内气温变化规律及影响因子进行分析。结果表明:天空总云量、日照时数、3级以上的风力和降雪是影响棚内气温日变化的主要气象因子。日照时数是影响棚内气温月变化的主要气象因子。依据分析结果,在实际中可用于日光温室大棚气温预报,为棚户生产提供实用的气象信息。     

A statistical study of the regional impact of deforestation on climate in the LMD GCM

The present study uses the general circulation model of the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD-GCM) coupled to the land-surface, vegetation model SECHIBA. The impact of deforestation on climate is discussed. Replacing tropical forests by degraded pastures changes albedo, the roughness length and the hydrological properties of the surface. The experiment was carried out over eleven years using the observed sea surface temperature from 1978 to 1988, which includes two major El Niño events. The discussion of the results in this study is limited to the regional impact of deforestation. The changes found for the surface fluxes in Amazonia, Africa and Indonesia are examined in detail and compared in order to understand the impact on temperature. Special attention is paid to feedback mechanisms which compensate for the surface changes and to the statistical significance of these results within the tropical variability of climate. It is shown that the relatively small regional impact of deforestation in this study is statistically significant and largely independent of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon.This paper was presented at the Second International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability (Hamburg, September 1992)     

石家庄市气候变化特征分析

利用石家庄市1951～2005年气温、降水资料,采用变率分析、趋势分析、小波变换和Mann-Kendall检验等方法对石家庄近55年的气候变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:①夏季、秋季气温变率小,冬季气温变化幅度最大;②年气温和四季气温线性上升趋势显著,春季、冬季升温最明显,近55年气候变暖主要是春季和冬季气温升高造成的。年降水量和四季降水量不存在线性变化趋势;③四季气温和年气温变化的周期性不明显,而降水量变化存在周期性;④石家庄四季气温和年气温在20世纪80年代末和90年初发生了明显的气候突变,而四季降水量和年降水量变化没有发生明显的气候突变。     

Squeezing information from regional climate change projections - results from a synthesis of CMIP5 results for south-east Queensland, Australia

We present a synthesis of CMIP5 model results for projected rainfall changes for a single region (south-east Queensland, Australia) and note that, as was evident in CMIP3 results, the multi-model mean projected changes for the late 21st century are not statistically significant for any season nor annually. Taking account of the number of statistically significant changes to mean rainfall, we find some evidence favouring a decrease in both spring and annual rainfall, but this is not compelling. In almost all cases the most frequent result is for no significant change. However, if we consider the number of results where there is a statistically significant change in the distributions of rainfall amounts, there appears to be slightly more information available for risk assessment studies. These numbers suggest an increase in the frequency of both wet and dry events during summer and spring, and a shift towards more frequent dry events during winter. There is no evidence for any significant changes to the distributions for either autumn or annually. The findings suggest that, in one respect, multi-model rainfall projections may contain more information than is evident from syntheses which focus on changes to the means and that, for some regions where changes in the frequency of wet and dry seasons/years have known impacts, the model projections may be more valuable than previously thought.     

拐子湖地区近40a气候变化特征分析

利用1971—2010年拐子湖气象站地面气象观测资料,分析了近40a拐子湖气候变化基本特征。结果表明:近40a来拐子湖地区气温变化的总趋势是升高的,其中春、夏、秋三季的温度上升尤为明显;年降水量不是很稳定;相对湿度变化不大;1971—2000年年蒸发量变化较小,但2000年以后下降非常明显;大风日数呈明显的下降趋势;沙尘暴天气也呈下降趋势。     

对流层气溶胶的直接气候效应对平流层的影响

通过WACCM-3模式中气溶胶光学厚度与卫星资料的对比发现,模式可以很好地再现全球气溶胶的主要分布特征,但在一些区域还存在数值上的差异。利用数值试验研究对流层气溶胶的直接气候效应对平流层气候的影响,结果表明:对流层气溶胶对平流层气候有明显影响,平流层化学过程在这一影响中起重要作用,而对流层气溶胶对平流层辐射的影响不是其直接气候效应对平流层影响的主要原因。其机制可能是对流层气溶胶改变对流层的辐射平衡,影响对流层的温度和大气环流,进而影响行星波的上传,使得平流层气候发生变化;影响区域主要位于高纬度和极地地区,南半球的变化比北半球大,温度变化最大达10 K,纬向风变化最大可达12 m/s,臭氧体积分数最多减少0.8×10-6。     

1954—2007年云南农业气候变化研究

为弄清主要农业气候要素和农业气候年型变化规律和特征.基于多站点气候资料,对表征云南农业气候特点的17个初选气候因子,进行经验正交(EOF)分解提取主成分因子,再应用系统聚类法划分农业气候年型.结果得到7个相互独立的主成分因子和6种农业气候年型,可客观表述云南主要农业气候变化特征.1954年以来云南农业主要生长季气候变暖趋势明显;降水量和日照时数比气温年际波动大,日照变化又比降水量明显;春旱强度有减弱的趋势,阴雨寡照逐渐加重;1990年代中期以来气候变暖明显加剧,同时日照时数波动振幅大、夏季雨量有递减趋势;1995年以来云南主要受两种农业气候年型影响,1999-2007年的主要气候年型在1950年代、1960年代和1970年代均未曾出现.气候变化对农业的利弊影响都十分显著.     

呼和浩特高空气温的统计特征

文章基于呼和浩特市1957—2012年自地面至高空20hPa的气温资料,统计分析了高空气温的季节变化、垂直分布、高空各层温度与地面温度变化的相关关系、长期变化趋势。结果表明:以150hPa层为界,其上部和下部的温度变化有着不同的特征,如在该层以下各层上的温度年较差为正值,而其上则为负值;近56a来,对流层下层温度显著增加,对流层上层和平流层的温度在降低,对流层温度直减率加大。     

20世纪60~90年代辽东地区气候年代际变化特征分析

利用1961～2000年辽东地区13个观测台站的逐月降水和气温资料,分析了辽东地区降水和气温的年代际变化。并利用高桥公式计算出辽东地区的蒸发量,得出了该地区蒸发量和降水蒸发差的年代际变化特征;同时利用干燥度指标研究了辽东地区气候干旱对气候变暖的响应。结果表明:近40 a来辽东地区气候变化呈暖干变化趋势,即气温升高、降水减少,尤其以20世纪90年代变化最为明显。     

青藏高原东坡地形短波辐射效应的模拟研究

本文选择2012年8月16~17日降水个例,利用WRFV3.5天气模式模拟研究青藏高原东坡的地形坡度、坡向及覆盖短波辐射效应(Effect of Slope,Aspect and Shading,ESAS)。结果显示,ESAS产生的短波辐射强迫(强迫)空间分布与坡度大小一致,表现为坡度大时强迫大,坡度小时强迫小;朝西坡向为负强迫,坡向朝东为正强迫,正负强迫分别超过20和32W m-2。地形覆盖使得坡度和坡向在青藏高原东坡(高原东坡)上产生的地面短波辐射通量变化(辐射通量变化)整体向东南移入盆地,位移后的辐射通量增减仍然和高原东坡的坡度、坡向分布一致。地表热通量、地表温度在白天的变化和辐射通量变化分布一致,均在四川盆地内有一条高值带,且形状类似高原东坡和盆地的衔接线;EASA对地面各热通量的影响可以延续到夜间,使得夜间地表热通量变化和高值区位置与白天相似,但变化幅度减小。水汽混合比和风场的变化均具有与潜热变化相似的空间形态,在夜间尤其明显。潜热的增加(减小)可能引起风速增减加(减小),并最终导致降水的改变。      

An investigation of the Iranian climatic changes by considering the precipitation, temperature, and relative humidity parameters

The present study tends to describe the survey of climatic changes in the case of the eastern and central areas of Iran and, to some extent, the northern parts. The monthly and yearly change trends in the minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, relative humidity, and the precipitation were surveyed for 26 synoptic stations in Iran during a 55-year period. The study was carried out by using the ??-Kendall test. The results showed the same temperature changes for the centrally located stations as the eastern and northern ones. Most of the stations in Zagros showed no significant temperature changes. A significant decrease in the precipitation was seen in summer in different stations. Most of the eastern and centrally located stations showed a decrease in relative humidity trend, while this condition was not recorded in Zagros and northern part of Iran. The present results also showed that the upward trend of minimum air temperature had an effect in increasing the mean air temperature in the stations with temperature ascending trend. This effect of minimum temperature was significantly more than that of the maximum temperature, which could be the result of increasing the amount of greenhouse gases and the reflection of received thermal energies, from land through the night. This increase in the temperature and a decrease in relative humidity would cause an increase in the evaporation of the received precipitation.     

Perceptions of climate and climate change by Amazonian communities

The Amazon region has been undergoing profound transformations since the late ‘70s through forest degradation, land use changes and effects of global climate change. The perception of such changes by local communities is important for risk analysis and for subsequent societal decision making. In this study, we compare and contrast observations and perceptions of climate change by selected Amazonian communities particularly vulnerable to alterations in precipitation regimes. Two main points were analysed: (i) the notion of changes in the annual climate cycle and (ii) the notion of changes in rainfall patterns. About 72% of the sampled population reports perceptions of climate changes, and there is a robust signal of increased perception with age. Other possible predictive parameters such as gender, fishing frequency and changes in/planning of economic activities do not appear overall as contributing to perceptions. The communities’ perceptions of the changes in 2013–2014 were then compared to earlier results (2007–2008), providing an unprecedented cohort study of the same sites. Results show that climate change perceptions and measured rainfall variations differ across the basin. It was only in the southern part of the Amazon that both measured and perceived changes in rainfall patterns were consistent with decreased precipitation. However, the perception of a changing climate became more widespread and frequently mentioned, signalling an increase in awareness of climate risk.