Analysis and attribution of trends in water levels in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

In the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD), water levels at some stations have increased. However, the factors that cause this rise in the VMD have not been identified. We considered four factors that may have contributed to the water level rise: (1) increased runoff from upstream, (2) sea‐level rise, (3) land subsidence, and (4) decrease in flood mitigation function because of construction of high dykes. We analysed daily maximum and minimum water levels, and mean daily water levels from 24 monitoring stations from 1987 to 2006. Using daily and annual water level differences, we classified the delta into two groups: one is dominated by flows from upstream, while the other is tide dominated. We then tested the trends of annual maximum and minimum water levels using the Mann–Kendall test, and identified the slope of the trend using the method of Sen. The areas of dyke construction were estimated using the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Land Surface Water Index (LSWI) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. Results show (1) river inflow has little impact on rising water levels in the VMD, (2) the influence of high dykes on water level rise could not be quantified in this study, and (3) both maximum and minimum water levels significantly increased in the tide‐dominated area. Trend of annual minimum water level can be considered as the sum sea‐level rise and land subsidence. Therefore, we attribute 6.05 mm year^?1 (80%) to land subsidence and 1.42 mm year^?1 (20%) to sea level rise, indicating that inundations have been severe in the VMD, caused primarily by land subsidence. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sediment balance at river mouths and the formation of deltas at rising or falling sea level

Sediment balance at river mouths—a physical basis of delta dynamics—is considered. The specific features of relationships between sediment balance components at a mouth of a river are established for a stable, rising, or dropping sea level. The development of the delta of the Chilia branch at the Danube mouth is considered as an example of delta dynamics under the conditions of a relatively stable sea level. The evolution of the Sulak delta in the Caspian Sea with a highly variable level is considered as an example of delta dynamics in the case of a considerable rise and drop of water level in the water body. The anthropogenic reduction of sediment runoff of the rivers (by a factor of two in the Danube, and by a factor of nine in the Sulak) is taken into account. The relationship between the sediment runoff of a river and the volume of the “backwater prism” that formed due to sea level rise is shown to be the key factor in the development of delta in the case of sea level rise. In the case of a drop in the sea level, the relationship between the “active” and “passive” progradation of the delta into the sea is determined by the sediment runoff of the river, the rate of sea level drop, and the bed slope in the coastal area of the nearshore zone.     

Regularities in sea level rise impact on the hydrological regime and morphological structure of river deltas

The problem of assessment of sea level rise impact on the hydrological regime and morphological structure of river deltas is discussed. Studies of the response of river deltas, which are among the most vulnerable natural objects, to the sea level rise has become urgent because of the global climate warming and the associated acceleration of the World Ocean level rise. Methods are described that can be used for the analysis, calculation, and prediction of sea level rise impact on submergence of deltas, propagation of backwater from the sea tides, surges, and salt seawater intrusion. Special emphasis is given to channel processes in delta branches, which accompany sea level rise, as well as to delta coastline erosion and flow redistribution among branches. In the course of research, due consideration was taken of the experience gained in studying the response of river deltas on the Caspian Sea coasts to the recent considerable level rise in this water body.     

Hydrological and Morphological Processes in the Kura River Delta

Peculiarities of the development of the Kura Delta over the last 200 years are discussed. As shown, changes in the delta were greatly affected by the Caspian Sea level drop during 1929–1977 and its rise during 1978–1995 as well as by natural and human-induced variations in the water and sediment runoff of the river. It was noted that the delta area decreased by nearly 40% as a result of the sea level rise. The following significant changes in the Kura Delta were revealed in recent years using space images: river water rushed through the right mouth spit and, hence, the main Southeastern Branch was devoid of its flow and a new sea spit began its formation in the branch mouth using wave-cut products.     

Long-Term Water Level Variations in the Eastern Sea of Azov and in the Mouth Reach of the Don River

Studies of long-term water level variations at marine hydrometeorological stations in the eastern Sea of Azov established a rise in the sea level which accelerated in the past 40 years. Allowance for the tectonic component permitted assessing the average rate of eustatic rise in the level. Oppositely directed long-term level variations were established in the mouth area of the Don River. Water level was found to rise at the downstream gages because of the backwater effect caused by the Sea of Azov level rise and delta deposits subsidence and to drop at the upstream gages mainly because of bed erosion owing to a reduction in sediment runoff after the construction of the Tsimlyanskoe Reservoir.     

Hydrological and morphological features of the Upper Angara mouth area

The hydrological and morphological processes in the mouth area of the Upper Angara (which ranks second in terms of water abundance among Baikal Lake tributaries) are considered. The major external factors that determine those processes have been revealed. The main features of the delta??s water regime, including the effect of anthropogenic level rise in the lake, are described. Specific attention is paid to morphological processes in the delta and on the barrier bar, separating a large mouth lagoon from the lake.     

Modeling the morphodynamic response of tidal embayments to sea-level rise

Sea-level rise has a strong influence on tidal systems, and a major focus of climate change effect studies is to predict the future state of these environmental systems. Here, we used a model to simulate the morphological evolution of tidal embayments and to explore their response to a rising sea level. The model was first used to reproduce the formation of channels and intertidal flats under a stable mean water level in an idealised and initially unchannelled tidal basin. A gradual rise in sea level was imposed once a well-developed channel network had formed. Simulations were conducted with different sea-level rise rates and tidal ranges. Sea-level rise forced headward erosion of the tidal channels, driving a landward expansion of the channel network and channel development in the previously non-inundated part of the basin. Simultaneously, an increase in channel drainage width in the lower part of the basin occurred and a decrease in the overall fraction of the basin occupied by channels could be observed. Sea-level rise thus altered important characteristics of the tidal channel network. Some intertidal areas were maintained despite a rising sea level. However, the size, shape, and location of the intertidal areas changed. In addition, sea-level rise affected the exchange of sediment between the different morphological elements. A shift from exporting to importing sediment as well as a reinforcement of the existing sediment export was observed for the simulations performed here. Sediment erosion in the inlet and the offshore transport of sediment was enhanced, resulting in the expansion of the ebb-tidal delta. Our model results further emphasise that tidal embayments can exhibit contrasting responses to sea-level rise.

     

Modeling the morphodynamic response of tidal embayments to sea-level rise

Sea-level rise has a strong influence on tidal systems, and a major focus of climate change effect studies is to predict the future state of these environmental systems. Here, we used a model to simulate the morphological evolution of tidal embayments and to explore their response to a rising sea level. The model was first used to reproduce the formation of channels and intertidal flats under a stable mean water level in an idealised and initially unchannelled tidal basin. A gradual rise in sea level was imposed once a well-developed channel network had formed. Simulations were conducted with different sea-level rise rates and tidal ranges. Sea-level rise forced headward erosion of the tidal channels, driving a landward expansion of the channel network and channel development in the previously non-inundated part of the basin. Simultaneously, an increase in channel drainage width in the lower part of the basin occurred and a decrease in the overall fraction of the basin occupied by channels could be observed. Sea-level rise thus altered important characteristics of the tidal channel network. Some intertidal areas were maintained despite a rising sea level. However, the size, shape, and location of the intertidal areas changed. In addition, sea-level rise affected the exchange of sediment between the different morphological elements. A shift from exporting to importing sediment as well as a reinforcement of the existing sediment export was observed for the simulations performed here. Sediment erosion in the inlet and the offshore transport of sediment was enhanced, resulting in the expansion of the ebb-tidal delta. Our model results further emphasise that tidal embayments can exhibit contrasting responses to sea-level rise.     

Hydrological alterations from water infrastructure development in the Mekong floodplains

The Mekong floodplains, which encompasses the region from Kratie Township in Central Cambodia to the Vietnamese East Sea, is a region of globally renown agricultural productivity and biodiversity. The construction of 135 dams across the Mekong basin and the development of delta‐based flood prevention systems have caused public concern given possible threats on the stability of agricultural and ecological systems in the floodplains. Mekong dams store water upstream and regulate flow seasonality, while in situ flood prevention systems re‐distribute water retention capacity in the floodplains. The main aim of this paper is to evaluate possible impacts of the recent development of both hydropower dams and flood prevention systems on hydrological regimes in the Mekong floodplains. An analysis of measured daily and hourly water level data for key stations in the Mekong floodplains from Kratie to the river mouth in Vietnam was conducted. Hydropower dam information was obtained from the hydropower database managed by the Mekong River Commission, and the MODIS satellite imagery was used to detect changes in flooding extent related to the operation of flood prevention systems in the Vietnam Mekong Delta. Results indicate that the upper part of the floodplains, the Cambodian floodplains, may buffer upstream dam impacts to the Vietnam Mekong Delta. Flood prevention up to date has had the greatest effect on the natural hydrological regime of the Mekong floodplains, evidenced by a significant increase of water level rise and fall rates in the upper delta and causing water levels in the middle delta to increase. The development of flood prevention systems has also effected spatial distribution of flooding as indicated via a time series analysis of satellite imagery. While this development leads to increase localized agricultural productivity, our historical data analysis indicates that development of one region detrimentally affects other regions within the delta, which could increase the risk of future conflicts among regions, economic sectors and the ecological value of these important floodplains. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of Hydrological and Fluviomorphological Regimes of the Ob River Delta

Data on water discharges and levels, morphometry of river branches, elevation base, runoff, and granulometric composition of sediments in the Ob Delta over the period of instrumental measurements were analyzed and summarized. The obtained results served as a basis for the delta parameterization. Detailed characteristics of the hydrological regime and quantitative characteristics of reversible fluviomorphological deformations averaged for the deltaic water streams were defined at different water levels in the channel. A many-year trend of these deformations was revealed. It was found that in the period between two cycles of field studies of the Ob Delta, no noticeable changes occured in the distribution of water discharges by the main branches at the delta head. Some secondary water streams in the delta lower reaches, where field observations were carried out over the mentioned period of time, featured a certain decrease in the flow discharged by these water streams along with a simultaneous increase in the water turbidity. The area of possible application of the obtained results was outlined.     

Long-Term variations in water levels in the Volga mouth area and their dependence on the Caspian Sea level variations

Long-term water level variations in the Volga mouth area and the effect exerted on them by the river’s flow and the Caspian Sea’s level variations are considered. Quantitative relationships were identified between the mean annual water levels at different gages in the mouth and the sea level. A backwater component was isolated in the long-term variations in water level in the Volga mouth area. Relationships between the daily water levels in the mouth and the Caspian Sea’s level at fixed water flow in the delta apex are presented. The magnitude and the propagation distance of backwater from the sea into the delta are specified. The responses of the mouth areas of rivers emptying into the Caspian Sea to sea level variations in the past century are compared.     

Hydrological Regime of the Nile Delta and Dynamics of Its Coastline

General information on the Nile River basin is presented. Specific features of the morphological regime of the Nile Delta and its near-shore zone, as well as the delta water balance and groundwater regime are discussed. The dynamics of the sea coastline of the Nile Delta is described in great detail. It is shown that the recent delta of the Nile and its sea coastline have been formed under the joint impact of the eustatic sea level rise, subsidence of sediments in the northern part of the deltaic plain, and considerable decrease in the river sediment runoff after the construction of the Aswan High Dam.     

Spatial and seasonal variability of sediment accumulation potential through controlled flooding of the beels located in the polders of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta of Southwest Bangladesh

The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta plain within Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable to relative sea level rise (RSLR) in the world especially under current anthropogenically modified (i.e., embanked) conditions. Tidal river management (TRM) as practiced in coastal regions of Bangladesh may provide an opportunity to combat RSLR by raising the land level through controlled sedimentation inside beels (depression within embanked polders) with re-opening of polders. To date, TRM has been applied to tide-dominated coastal regions, but the potential applicability of TRM for the beels within the polders of river-dominated and mixed flow (MF) regimes remains to be assessed. We apply a calibrated 2D numerical hydromorphodynamic model to quantify sediment deposition in a beel flooded through breaching of the polder dike under conditions of river-dominated, tide-dominated and MF regimes for different seasons and applying different regulation schemes for the flow into the beel. Simulation results show considerable seasonality in sediment deposition with largest deposition during the monsoon season. The potential of controlled flooding is highest in the tide-dominated region, where sediment accumulation can be up to 28 times higher than in the river-dominated region. Regulating flow into a beel increases trapping efficiency, but results in slightly lower total deposition than without regulation. We conclude that re-establishing flooding of the beel within the polder without regulating the flow into the beel through breaching of the polder dike is a promising strategy for the mixed and tide-dominated flow regions in the delta as the sediment accumulation can raise the land surface at a higher rate than RSLR and effective SLR (ESLR). In the more upstream river-dominated section of the delta, accumulation rates would be much lower, but the pressure of sea level rise on these areas is lower as well. Owing to the abundant availability of sediment, application of controlled flooding like TRM therefore provides an opportunity to counteract the impact of RSLR and ESLR by means of land raising, particularly along the tidal river reaches in the GBM delta.     

Hydrological and morphological processes in the Chao Phraya Mouth Area (Thailand) and their anthropogenic changes

The hydrological and morphological features of the Chao Phraya Mouth Area (Thailand) are considered. The attention is focused on the assessment of the effect exerted on the hydrological and morphological processes in the delta and the nearshore of the Chao Phraya River by a considerable anthropogenic drop in water and sediment runoff of the river; land subsidence near Bangkok caused by groundwater withdrawal; sea level rise; and wave intensification.     

Effects of sea-level rise on ground water flow in a coastal aquifer system

The effects of sea-level rise on the depth to the fresh water/salt water interface were simulated by using a density-dependent, three-dimensional numerical ground water flow model for a simplified hypothetical fresh water lens that is similar to shallow, coastal aquifers found along the Atlantic coast of the United States. Simulations of sea-level rise of 2.65 mm/year from 1929 to 2050 resulted in an increase in water levels relative to a fixed datum, yet a net decrease in water levels relative to the increased sea-level position. The net decrease in water levels was much greater near a gaining stream than farther from the stream. The difference in the change in water levels is attributed to the dampening effect of the stream on water level changes in response to sea-level rise. In response to the decreased water level altitudes relative to local sea level, the depth to the fresh water/salt water interface decreased. This reduction in the thickness of the fresh water lens varied throughout the aquifer and was greatly affected by proximity to a ground water fed stream and whether the stream was tidally influenced. Away from the stream, the thickness of the fresh water lens decreased by about 2% from 1929 to 2050, whereas the fresh water lens thickness decreased by about 22% to 31% for the same period near the stream, depending on whether the stream was tidally influenced. The difference in the change in the fresh water/salt water interface position is controlled by the difference in the net decline in water levels relative to local sea level.     

Modeling the Transient Response of Saline Intrusion to Rising Sea‐Levels

Sea levels are expected to rise as a result of global temperature increases, one implication of which is the potential exacerbation of sea water intrusion into coastal aquifers. Given that approximately 70% of the world's population resides in coastal regions, it is imperative to understand the interaction between fresh groundwater and sea water intrusion in order to best manage available resources. For this study, controlled investigation has been carried out concerning the temporal variation in sea water intrusion as a result of rising sea levels. A series of fixed inland head two‐dimensional sea water intrusion models were developed with SEAWAT in order to assess the impact of rising sea levels on the transient migration of saline intrusion in coastal aquifers under a range of hydrogeological property conditions. A wide range of responses were observed for typical hydrogeological parameter values. Systems with a high ratio of hydraulic conductivity to recharge and high effective porosity lagged behind the equilibrium sea water toe positions during sea‐level rise, often by many hundreds of meters, and frequently taking several centuries to equilibrate following a cease in sea‐level rise. Systems with a low ratio of hydraulic conductivity to recharge and low effective porosity did not develop such a large degree of disequilibrium and generally stabilized within decades following a cease in sea‐level rise. This study provides qualitative initial estimates for the expected rate of intrusion and predicted degree of disequilibrium generated by sea‐level rise for a range of hydrogeological parameter values.     

Specific Features of Development of the Modern Sulak River Delta

The development of the Sulak River Delta in the 19th and 20th centuries is discussed. It is shown that a drastic reduction in sediment runoff after the establishment of river flow regulation, anthropogenic restructuring of the river channel system in the delta area, and large-scale variations in the Caspian Sea level had an impact on the delta evolution. The processes of delta degradation over the period of the recent sea level rise are analyzed. The dynamics of the Sulak Delta in recent decades is studied using space photographs.     

Prediction and prevention of the impacts of sea level rise on the Yangtze River Delta and its adjacent areas

The Yangtze River Delta region is characterized by high density of population and rapidly developing economy. There are low lying coastal plain and deltaic plain in this region. Thus, the study area could be highly vulnerable to accelerated sea level rise caused by global warming. This paper deals with the scenarios of the relative sea level rise in the early half period of the 21st century in the study area. The authors suggested that relative sea level would rise 25 50 cm by the year 2050 in the study area, of which the magnitude of relative sea level rise in the Yangtze River Delta would double the perspective worldwide average. The impacts of sea level rise include: (i) exacerbation of coastline recession in several sections and vertical erosion of tidal flat, and increase in length of eroding coastline; (ii) decrease in area of tidal flat and coastal wetland due to erosion and inundation; (iii) increase in frequency and intensity of storm surge, which would threaten the coastal protection works; (iv) reduction of drainage capacity due to backwater effect in the Lixiahe lowland and the eastern lowland of Taihu Lake region, and exacerbation of flood and waterlogging disasters; and (v) increase in salt water intrusion into the Yangtze Estuary. Comprehensive evaluation of sea level rise impacts shows that the Yangtze River Delta and eastern lowland of Taihu Lake region, especially Shanghai Municipality, belong in the district in the extreme risk category and the next is the northern bank of Hangzhou Bay, the third is the abandoned Yellow River delta, and the district at low risk includes the central part of north Jiangsu coastal plain and Lixiahe lowland.     

The Evolution of the Eastern Part of the Terek Mouth Area in the Period of the Caspian Sea Level Rise: Mapping Based on Aerospace Materials

The evolution of the eastern part of the Terek mouth area in the period of the current rise of the Caspian Sea level has been traced by aerial and space photographs made at different times. With the help of computer processing of the photographs, a set of maps have been compiled including maps of the eastern part of the Terek delta (including the former Agrakhan Bay and the Agrakhan Peninsula with a new delta) in 1978, 1991, and 1997, as well as a map of its dynamics in the period of its most radical changes (1978–1991). The response of the coastal environment to the sea level rise has been analyzed, and the correctness of the forecasts of changes in the coastal zone has been evaluated.     

Spatial assessment of hydrologic alteration across the Pearl River Delta,China, and possible underlying causes

The alterations of the water level across the Pearl River Delta (PRD) were investigated using a ‘range of variability approach’ (RVA) based on monthly water level datasets extracted from 17 gauging stations. A mapping method was used to illustrate the spatial patterns in the degrees of alteration of water levels. The results indicated that more stations showing moderate and high alterations in monthly mean maximum and minimum water levels when compared with monthly maximum and minimum water levels. River channels characterized by higher alterations of water levels were observed mainly in the regions north of 22° 30′N. Alterations of water levels across the PRD were a consequence of various influencing factors. However, changed hypsography due to extensive and intensive human activities, particularly the large‐scale dredging and excavation of the river sand, may be taken as one of the major causes for the substantial hydrologic alteration. This study indicated that the river channels characterized by altered water levels are mostly those characterized by highly and moderately intensive sand dredging. The changed ratio of the streamflow between Makou and Sanshui stations, the major upstream flow control stations, also influenced the water level alterations of the Pearl River delta. The results of this study will be of great significance in water resources management and better human mitigation of the natural hazards due to the altered water level under the changing environment. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.