Solar Activity Index for the Long-Term Prediction of the F2 Layer Critical Frequency

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - Based on a comparison of the 12-month moving averages of the solar activity indices with the ionospheric index of solar activity IG12 for the period of 1954–2014,...     

Modelling the peak of the ionospheric E-layer

Calculations with a full time-varying model are used to study changes in the height and density of the E-layer peak, caused by known changes in the neutral atmosphere. Agreement with mean observed values of N_mE requires an increase of 10% in calculated ion densities, and an increase of 33% in the solar-maximum EUV model at λ<150 Å. At a fixed site, changes with the solar zenith angle χ agree well with the simple Chapman theory during most of the daylight hours. Simple modifications to the Chapman equations give improved accuracy near sunrise and sunset. When corrected for changes in χ, model results for summer and equinox show a decrease in the peak density N_mE at increasing latitudes. The overall change agrees well with experimental data, as summarised in the IRI model. Known changes in the neutral atmosphere also reproduce the increase in N_mE in winter, at latitudes up to 30°. The continuing increase at higher winter latitudes, in the IRI model, requires a major reduction in NO densities in winter. A suitable compromise is suggested. Equations fitted to the model results then provide a simpler and better behaved replacement for the IRI equations. Calculations at night show that known sources of ionisation, largely from starlight, can produce observed peak densities using current chemistry. There is an appreciable change with latitude, as starlight production increases in the southern hemisphere. The improbably large solar cycle change built into the IRI model, at night, cannot be reproduced and is not found in recent data. A new, simpler model is suggested. Changes in zenith angle and atmospheric composition cause the peak height (h_mE) to vary between 105 and 120 km, as a function of time, latitude, season and solar flux. These changes are approximated by simple equations that should be definitely preferable over the single, fixed height used in the IRI models.     

An Overview of Long-Term Trends in the Lower Ionosphere Below 120 km

The increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is expectedalso to modify the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT region). However,the greenhouse cooling – instead of heating – at these heights is revealed by modelsand generally confirmed by observations. This should more or less affect variousionospheric parameters at these heights. The spatial and temporal structure oftemperature trends in the MLT region is quite complex and, therefore, such structureshould occur for trends in the lower ionosphere as well. In the lower part of theionosphere below about 90 km, the rocket measurements of electron density, theindirect phase reflection height measurements and the A3 radio wave absorptionmeasurements reveal trends corresponding to cooling and shrinking of the mesosphere,while riometric measurements of cosmic noise absorption provide inconclusive results.The radio wave absorption and rocket electron density measurements clearly display asubstantial dependence of trends on height. Ionosonde data show that there is amodel-expected trend in the maximum electron concentration of the E region ionosphere;foE is slightly increasing. On the other hand, the height of the normal E layer, h'E, isslightly decreasing. The nighttime LF radio wave reflection height measurements near95 km support an idea of increasing electron density. However, rather scarce rocketmeasurements display a negative trend in electron density at 90–120 km. The role ofthe solar cycle and other longer-term variability of natural origin in the determinationof observational trends must not be neglected. In spite of the general qualitativeagreement with model expectations, there is still some controversy between variousobservational trend results (hopefully, apparent rather than real), which needs to beclarified.     

Model of the E-Layer Critical Frequency for the Auroral Region

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - A new foE model for the auroral region is constructed; the model is based on an analysis of the models of auroral electron precipitations, the boundaries of the discrete...     

Diurnal and Seasonal Variations in Trends in the <Emphasis Type="Italic">E</Emphasis>-Layer Critical Frequency

Long-term changes in the E-layer critical frequency foE at three stations in the European region (Juliusruh, Slough, and Rome) are analyzed by the method described in detail in the previous paper by the authors. It is found that two former stations demonstrate a well-pronounced change in foE (a trend) during the two previous decades. At the same time, the same features of the behavior of the aforementioned trend k(foE) are obtained for both stations. The trend is positive and negative in the morning and evening hours, respectively. It is minimal near the local noon. That explains the small value of k(foE) obtained in the previous paper for 1200 LT. A well-pronounced seasonal behavior of k(foE) is detected: the trend is minimal and maximal in the summer period and at the end of fall—beginning of winter, respectively. The trend maximal amplitude in the morning hours reaches +0.04 MHz per year, whereas the minimal amplitude in evening hours is–0.06 MHz per year. No systematic changes in foE exceeding 0.01 MHz in magnitude per year are found for Rome station.     

极隙区一次长时间ELDI事件的观测研究

E层占优电离层（ELDI）是一种特殊的电离层垂直结构,表现出与偶发Es明显不同的时空分布和形态特征,但其形成机理尚不清楚.本文报道了发生在2001年7月15日的一次长持续时间（~2.3 h）的ELDI事件.地面雷达观测表明,该ELDI事件可以按照电子密度剖面不同的变化特征分为两个阶段.在第1个阶段里,E层密度大幅度增强而F层密度未有明显变化;在第2个阶段里,E层密度回落至正常水平而F层密度强烈耗空.卫星及其他地面设备的协同观测数据表明,高能离子沉降是ELDI第1阶段的主导形成机制,而强等离子体对流是第2阶段的主导机制.

     

Solar-Activity Index for the E-Layer Critical Frequency at Middle Latitudes

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - Based on an analysis of data from the midlatitude ionospheric stations, it is found that the P = 0.5(F1 + F81) index is an optimal solar-activity index for the daily...     

Global Dynamic Model of Critical Frequency of the Ionospheric F2 Layer

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - A global dynamic model of the F2 layer of the ionosphere GDMF2 is designed to calculate foF2 in both quiet and geomagnetically disturbed conditions. The term...     

Estimation of Free Core Resonance Parameters Based on Long-Term Strain Observations in the Diurnal Frequency Band

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - The free core nutation (FCN) is one of the Earth’s rotational eigenmodes, which is caused by the retrograde motion of the liquid core relative to the...     

Long-Term Dynamics of the Ionic Runoff in the Amur during Winter Low-Water Season at Khabarovsk and Trends in Its Variations

Water Resources - Long-term dynamics of the ionic runoff into the Amur at Khabarovsk during winter low-water season are analyzed. A hydrological and hydrochemical characteristic is given to the...     

Effective Solar Activity Index for the Median of the Critical Frequency of the F2 Layer

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - Abstract—By comparing the moving 12-month averaged values of the F107 solar radiation flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm and ionospheric solar activity index T, we...     

Estimation of the Critical Frequency in the Radio Sounding of the Ionosphere on Board High-Orbit Spacecrafts over the Arctic Region

A possibility of estimating the local value of the plasma frequency of the F2 layer ionospheric maximum (subionospheric region) according to the multifrequency sounding data of the arctic ionosphere from high-elliptical spacecrafts was considered. The data in the form of the frequency dependence of the group path of the sounding signal, the transionogram, were synthesized in the results of mathematical modeling. The energetic potential of proposed method, the wave field mode structure, and uncertainty of the critical frequency estimation according to the measured cut-off frequencies of magnetoionic components of the transionogram were analyzed. It was shown that the expected potential uncertainty of foF2 estimation is somewhat higher than that for the case of maximum reliable ground based data, but it is, in general, substantially less than the methods that use measurements of the total electron content in GPS technology. We discussed physical feasibility for a realization of the method for ionospheric state diagnostics.     

Statistical Analysis and Modeling of the Local Ionospheric Critical Frequency: A Mid-latitude Single-Station Model for Use in Forecasting

The hourly values of the F-layer critical frequency from the ionospheric sounder in Dourbes (50.1°N, 4.6°E) during the time interval from 1957 to 2010, comprising five solar cycles, were analyzed for the effects of the solar activity. The hourly time series were reduced to hourly monthly medians which in turn were used for fitting a single station foF₂ monthly median model. Two functional approaches have been investigated: a statistical approach and a spectral approach. The solar flux F_10.7 is used to model the dependence of foF₂ on the solar activity and is incorporated into both models by a polynomial expression. The statistical model employs polynomial functions to fit the F-layer critical frequency while the spectral model is based on spectral decomposition of the measured data and offers a better physical interpretation of the fitting parameters. The daytime and nighttime foF₂ values calculated by both approaches are compared during high and low solar activity. In general, the statistical model has a slightly lower uncertainty at the expense of the larger number of fitting parameters. However, the spectral approach is superior for modeling the periodic effects and performs better when comparing the results for high and low solar activity. Comparison with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI 2012) shows that both local models are better at describing the local values of the F-layer critical frequency.     

利用COSMIC掩星探测分析120°E经线附近电离层E层闪烁指数变化

利用气象、电离层和气候卫.星联合观测系统COSMIC掩星2007-2013年探测资料,分析了120°E经线附近电离层E层区域(70~140km)闪烁指数的季节、地方时和空间变化.结果表明强电离层闪烁主要集中在磁纬度±30°内,夏季达到最大,冬季其次,春季最小.闪烁峰值大小与太阳辐射有关,但北半球夏冬季闪烁峰值大于南半球观测结果,秋半球闪烁峰值大于春半球观测结果.地磁高纬地区较强闪烁现象出现在地方时傍晚之后,午夜前后达到最大值.地磁中纬和低纬区域日出后即出现较为明显的闪烁现象,一直持续至夜间甚至凌晨,分别约在中午和傍晚前达到最大值.磁赤道区闪烁现象通常始于地方时日出后,最大值发生在傍晚1800LT左右.电离层E区的闪烁峰值大都集中110km高度,但高纬地区的峰值高度略有降低.此外,太阳和地磁活动的增强一定程度上会抑制E层闪烁现象.相关研究结果有利于分析E层不规则结构及物理形成机制,同时为电离层区域闪烁模型的建立提供有用的信息.     

Trends in the Mediterranean rainfall

Summary The trends appearing in the annual rainfall of the 14 selected coastal and island stations of the Mediterranean were invetigated by running 30-year averages. The periods used as well as the standard deviation, the average variability and the coefficient of variation of the annual rainfall are given for each of the 14 stations. It was found that in the majority of the stations upward and downward trends in the annual rainfall appeared but in a few only stations these trends coincide in the same intervals. A relative similarity appeared in the stations of Marseille-Trieste, Malta-Tunis, Gibraltar-Rome, Nicosia-Limassol and Beyrut-Alexandria. By examination of the three more important maxima and minima in the course of rainfall it was observed that many of them coincide simultaneously at about the same time in the different stations and also that these coincidences occurred near the maximum or minimum of sunspots.     

Analysis of Long-Term Variations in the Volga Annual Runoff

The stability of sample estimates of statistical parameters was analyzed for segments of the initial time series of annual runoff volumes of the Volga River at Volgograd for 1881/1882–1994/1995. The segments of series considered in this study differ in the extent of anthropogenic impact on the runoff and the type of atmospheric circulation and correspond to characteristic periods in the Caspian Sea level variations. The conclusion is made that there are statistically significant variations in the annual runoff of the Volga, caused by both natural–climatic and anthropogenic variations in the hydrological cycle.     

Long-Term Changes in the Number and Magnitude of Forbush-Effects

The IZMIRAN database of Forbush effects and interplanetary disturbances has been used to study long-term changes in the number and magnitude of Forbush effects in the last six solar cycles (1957–2016) for cosmic rays of rigidity of 10 GV. Solar activity cycles have been shown to be well expressed in data of Forbush effects, especially in large magnitude events that almost disappear in minima. The changes in the distribution of Forbush effects and the decrease in their average values from solar activity maximum to minimum are explained by the predominance of cosmic-ray variations due to the action of coronal holes at low activity. It should be noted that the current cycle involves fewer and generally weaker Forbush effects than in the previous five cycles. For each month, an FD index combining the magnitude and number of Forbush effects and convenient for studying long-term variations has been proposed and calculated.