Variations of δ<Superscript>18</Superscript>O in Rivers of Crimea in Winter

The results of studies of variations of δ¹⁸O values in river water in Crimea Peninsula in January–February 2015–2017 are given. The variation range of δ¹⁸О in river water over the three years of studies never exceeded 3‰. A tendency toward an increase in δ¹⁸О in the water of the Salgir, Kacha, Al’ma, Bel’bek, Biyuk-Karasu from their sources to mouths was identified and explained by a decrease in evaporation in the mouth areas of the rivers relative to their sources and upper reaches, and the inflow of isotopically light precipitation (rain and snow) into the rivers in their upper reaches. The values of δ¹⁸О in waters of the rivers with regulated stream were found to increase under the effect of the Simferopol Reservoir on the Salgir River and the Izobil’nenskoe Reservoir on the Ulu-Zen’ River. The values of δ¹⁸О in the upper reaches of the large rivers of Kacha and Bel’bek (the northwestern slope of the Crimean Mountains) vary from ?8.7 to ?9.7‰, except for the rivers of Al’ma (?7.7‰) and Kokozka (?10.2‰) because of the different shares of groundwater in the recharge of these rivers.     

The <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> 3.1–4.7 earthquakes in the southern Baltic Sea and adjacent areas in 2000, 2001 and 2004

The area south and east of the Baltic Sea has very minor seismic activity. However, occasional events occur as illustrated by four events in recent years, which are analysed in this study: near Wittenburg, Germany, on May 19, 2000, M _w = 3.1, near Rostock, Germany, on July 21, 2001, M _w = 3.4 and in the Kaliningrad area, Russia, two events on September 21, 2004 with M _w = 4.6 and 4.7. Locations, magnitudes (M _L and M _w) and focal mechanisms were determined for the two events in Germany. Synthetic modeling resulted in a well-confined focal depth for the Kaliningrad events. The inversion of macroseismic observations provided simultaneous solutions of the location, focal depth and epicentral intensity. The maximum horizontal compressive stress orientations obtained from focal mechanism solutions, approximately N–S for the two German events and NNW–SSE for the Kaliningrad events, show a good agreement with the regionally oriented crustal stress field.     

Water‐worked gravel beds in laboratory flumes – a natural analogue?

An investigation has been conducted to identify the key parameters that are likely to scale laboratory sediment deposits to the field scale. Two types of bed formation were examined: one where sediment is manually placed and screeded and the second where sediment is fed into a running flume. This later technique created deposits through sequential cycles of sediment transport and deposition. Detailed bed surface topography measurements have been made over a screeded bed and three fed beds. In addition, bulk subsurface porosity and hydraulic conductivity have been measured. By comparing the four beds, results revealed that certain physical properties of the screeded bed were clearly different from those of the fed beds. The screeded bed had a random organization of grains on both the surface and within the subsurface. The fed beds exhibited greater surface and subsurface organization and complexity, and had a number of properties that closely resembled those found for water‐worked gravel beds. The surfaces were water‐worked and armoured and there was preferential particle orientation and direction of imbrication in the subsurface. This suggested that fed beds are able to simulate, in a simplified manner, both the surface and subsurface properties of established gravel‐bed river deposits. The near‐bed flow properties were also compared. It revealed that the use of a screeded bed will typically cause an underestimation in the degree of temporal variability in the flow. Furthermore, time‐averaged streamwise velocities were found to be randomly organized over the screeded bed but were organized into long streamwise flow structures over the fed beds. It clearly showed that caution should be taken when comparing velocity measurements over screeded beds with water‐worked beds, and that the formation of fed beds offers an improved way of investigating intragravel flow and sediment–water interface exchange processes in gravel‐bed rivers at a laboratory scale. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probability gains of an epidemic-type aftershock sequence model in retrospective forecasting of <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> ≥ 5 earthquakes in Italy

A stochastic triggering (epidemic) model incorporating short-term clustering was fitted to the instrumental earthquake catalog of Italy for event with local magnitudes 2.6 and greater to optimize its ability to retrospectively forecast 33 target events of magnitude 5.0 and greater that occurred in the period 1990–2006. To obtain an unbiased evaluation of the information value of the model, forecasts of each event use parameter values obtained from data up to the end of the year preceding the target event. The results of the test are given in terms of the probability gain of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model relative to a time-invariant Poisson model for each of the 33 target events. These probability gains range from 0.93 to 32000, with ten of the target events yielding a probability gain of at least 10. As the forecasting capability of the ETAS model is based on seismic activity recorded prior to the target earthquakes, the highest probability gains are associated with the occurrence of secondary mainshocks during seismic sequences. However, in nine of these cases, the largest mainshock of the sequence was marked by a probability gain larger than 50, having been preceded by previous smaller magnitude earthquakes. The overall evaluation of the performance of the epidemic model has been carried out by means of four popular statistical criteria: the relative operating characteristic diagram, the R score, the probability gain, and the log-likelihood ratio. These tests confirm the superior performance of the method with respect to a spatially varying, time-invariant Poisson model. Nevertheless, this method is characterized by a high false alarm rate, which would make its application in real circumstances problematic.     

Net ecosystem CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> exchange and controlling factors in a steppe—<Emphasis Type="Italic">Kobresia</Emphasis> meadow on the Tibetan Plateau

Knowledge of seasonal variation of net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE) and its biotic and abiotic controllers will further our understanding of carbon cycling process, mechanism and large-scale modelling. Eddy covariance technique was used to measure NEE, biotic and abiotic factors for nearly 3 years in the hinterland alpine steppe—Korbresia meadow grassland on the Tibetan Plateau, the present highest fluxnet station in the world. The main objectives are to investigate dynamics of NEE and its components and to determine the major controlling factors. Maximum carbon assimilation took place in August and maximum carbon loss occurred in November. In June, rainfall amount due to monsoon climate played a great role in grass greening and consequently influenced interannual variation of ecosystem carbon gain. From July through September, monthly NEE presented net carbon assimilation. In other months, ecosystem exhibited carbon loss. In growing season, daytime NEE was mainly controlled by photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). In addition, leaf area index (LAI) interacted with PAR and together modulated NEE rates. Ecosystem respiration was controlled mainly by soil temperature and simultaneously by soil moisture. Q ₁₀ was negatively correlated with soil temperature but positively correlated with soil moisture. Large daily range of air temperature is not necessary to enhance carbon gain. Standard respiration rate at referenced 10°C (R ₁₀) was positively correlated with soil moisture, soil temperature, LAI and aboveground biomass. Rainfall patterns in growing season markedly influenced soil moisture and therefore soil moisture controlled seasonal change of ecosystem respiration. Pulse rainfall in the beginning and at the end of growing season induced great ecosystem respiration and consequently a great amount of carbon was lost. Short growing season and relative low temperature restrained alpine grass vegetation development. The results suggested that LAI be usually in a low level and carbon uptake be relatively low. Rainfall patterns in the growing season and pulse rainfall in the beginning and at end of growing season control ecosystem respiration and consequently influence carbon balance of ecosystem.     

Can a Time Fractional‐Derivative Model Capture Scale‐Dependent Dispersion in Saturated Soils?

Time nonlocal transport models such as the time fractional advection‐dispersion equation (t‐fADE) were proposed to capture well‐documented non‐Fickian dynamics for conservative solutes transport in heterogeneous media, with the underlying assumption that the time nonlocality (which means that the current concentration change is affected by previous concentration load) embedded in the physical models can release the effective dispersion coefficient from scale dependency. This assumption, however, has never been systematically examined using real data. This study fills this historical knowledge gap by capturing non‐Fickian transport (likely due to solute retention) documented in the literature (Huang et al. 1995) and observed in our laboratory from small to intermediate spatial scale using the promising, tempered t‐fADE model. Fitting exercises show that the effective dispersion coefficient in the t‐fADE, although differing subtly from the dispersion coefficient in the standard advection‐dispersion equation, increases nonlinearly with the travel distance (varying from 0.5 to 12 m) for both heterogeneous and macroscopically homogeneous sand columns. Further analysis reveals that, while solute retention in relatively immobile zones can be efficiently captured by the time nonlocal parameters in the t‐fADE, the motion‐independent solute movement in the mobile zone is affected by the spatial evolution of local velocities in the host medium, resulting in a scale‐dependent dispersion coefficient. The same result may be found for the other standard time nonlocal transport models that separate solute retention and jumps (i.e., displacement). Therefore, the t‐fADE with a constant dispersion coefficient cannot capture scale‐dependent dispersion in saturated porous media, challenging the application for stochastic hydrogeology methods in quantifying real‐world, preasymptotic transport. Hence improvements on time nonlocal models using, for example, the novel subordination approach are necessary to incorporate the spatial evolution of local velocities without adding cumbersome parameters.     

Climatic significance of<Emphasis Type="Italic">δD</Emphasis> time series in tree rings from Tianmu Mountain

Based on cross-dating tree ring age from Tianmu Mountain, Zhejiang Province, theδD      

REE and <Emphasis Type="Italic">ε</Emphasis><Subscript>Nd</Subscript> of clay fractions in sediments from the eastern Pacific Ocean: Evidence for clay sources

Clay fractions in the non-calcareous surface sediments from the eastern Pacific were analyzed for clay minerals, REE and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd. Montmorillonite/illite ratio (M/I ratio), total REE contents (ΣREE), LREE/HREE ratio and cerium anomaly (δCe) may effectively indicate the genesis of clay minerals. Clay fractions with M/I ratio <1, δCe >0.85, ΣREE <400 μg/g, LREE/HREE ratio ≈4, and REE patterns similar to those of pelagic sediments are terrigenous and autogenetic mixed clay fractions and contain more autogenetic montmorillonite. Clay fractions with M/I ratio >1, δCe=0.86 to 1.5, ΣREE=200 to 350 μg/g, LREE/HREE ratio ≈6 and REE distribution patterns similar to that of China loess are identified as terrigenous clay fraction. The ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios or _ɛNd values of clay fractions inherit the features of terrigenous sources of clay minerals. Clay fractions are divided into 4 types according to _ɛNd values. Terrigenous clay minerals of type I with the _ɛNd values of ™8 to ™6 originate mainly from North American fluvial deposits. Those of type II with the ε Nd values of ™9 to ™7 are mainly from the East Asia and North American fluvial deposits. Those of type III with ε Nd values of ™6 to ™3 could come from the central and eastern Pacific volcanic islands. Those of type IV with ε Nd values of ™13 to ™12 may be from East Asia eolian. The terrigenous and autogenetic mixed clay fractions show patchy distributions, indicating that there are volcanic or hot-spot activities in the eastern Pacific plate, while the terrigenous clay fractions cover a large part of the study area, proving that the terrigenous clay minerals are dominant in the eastern Pacific.     

A statistical analysis of seismo-ionospheric TEC anomalies before 63 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> ≥ 5.0 earthquakes in Turkey during 2003–2016

In this study, pre-seismic and post-seismic total electron content (TEC) anomalies of 63 M_w?≥?5.0 earthquakes in Turkey (36°–42°N, 26°–45°E) were statistically investigated. The largest earthquake that occurred in Turkey during 2003–2016 is the M_w 7.1 Van earthquake on October 23, 2011. The TEC data of epicenters is obtained from CODE-GIM using a simple 4-point bivariate interpolation. The anomalies of TEC variations were determined by using a quartile-based running median process. In order to validate GIM results, we used the GPS-TEC data of available four IGS stations within the size of the Van earthquake preparation area. The anomalies that are detected by GIM and GPS-TEC show a similar pattern. Accordingly, the results obtained with CODE-GIM are reliable. The statistical results show that there are not prominent earthquake precursors for M_w?≤?6.0 earthquakes in Turkey.     

An ocean circulation model in <Emphasis Type="Italic">σ</Emphasis>S-<Emphasis Type="Italic">z</Emphasis>-<Emphasis Type="Italic">σ</Emphasis>B hybrid coordinate and its validation

A 3D, two-time-level, σS-z-σB hybrid-coordinate Marine Science and Numerical Modeling numerical ocean circulation model (HyMOM) is developed in this paper. In HyMOM, the σ coordinate is employed in the surface and bottom regions, and the z coordinate is used in the intermediate layers. This method can overcome problems with vanishing surface cells and minimize the unwanted deviation in representing bottom topography. The connection between the σ and z layers vertically includes an expanded “ghost” method and the linear interpolation. The governing equations in the σS-z-σB hybrid coordinate based on the complete Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations are derived in detail. The two-level time staggered and Eulerian forward and backward schemes, which are of second-order of accuracy, are adopted for the temporal difference in internal and external mode, respectively. The computation of the baroclinic gradient force is tested in an analytic test problem; the errors for two methods in HyMOM, which are relatively large only in the bottom layers, are obviously smaller than those in the pure σ and z models in almost all of the vertical layers. A quasi-global climatologic numerical experiment is constructed to test the simulation performance of HyMOM. With the monthly mean Levitus climatology data as reference, the HyMOM can improve the simulating accuracy compared with its pure z or σ coordinate implementation.     

Temperature evolution from the <Emphasis Type="Italic">δ</Emphasis><Superscript>18</Superscript>O record of Hani peat,Northeast China,in the last 14000 years

From the last deglaciation to the Holocene, the Greenland Ice Core (GISP2) δ ¹⁸O records as well as the records of ice-rafted debris on the surface of the North Atlantic have revealed a succession of sudden cooling events on the centennial to millennial scales. However, the temperature proxy records are rarely studied systematically and directly to ensure that this air temperature cooling pattern simultaneously existed in the East Asian Region, in addition to the repeated pattern occurring in the Greater Atlantic Region. A peat cellulose δ ¹⁸O temperature proxy record proximately existing for 14000 years was picked up from the Hani peat in Jilin Province, China. It suggests by comparison that the sudden cooling events, such as the Older Dryas, Inter-Allerød, Younger Dryas, and nine ice-rafted debris events of the North Atlantic, are almost entirely reiterated in the temperature signals of Hani peat cellulose δ ¹⁸O. These cooling events show that the repeatedly occurring temperature cooling pattern not only appeared in the North Atlantic Region in the high latitudes, but also in the Northwest Pacific Region in the middle latitudes. The climate change events marking the start of the Holocene Epoch, the Holocene Megathermal, the “8.2 kyr” event, the “4.2 kyr” event, the Medieval Warm Period, and the Little Ice Age are further discussed. The sensitivity response of Hani peat cellulose δ ¹⁸O to the land surface temperature and the reason for the age accuracy of peat cellulose ¹⁴C are also discussed based on the characteristics of the peat bog environment.     

IR band of O<Subscript>2</Subscript> at 1.27 μm as the tracer of O<Subscript>3</Subscript> in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere: Correction of the method

The problem of systematic overestimation (20–50%) of the retrieved ozone concentrations in the altitude range of 60–80 km in the TIMED–SABER satellite experiment in the daytime has been solved. The reason for overestimation is the neglect of the electronic vibrational kinetics of photolysis products of ozone and molecular oxygen O₂(b¹Σ_g ⁺, ν) and O₂(a¹Δ_g, ν). The IR emission band of O₂(a¹Δ_g, ν = 0) at 1.27 μm can be correctly used in remote sensing in order to obtain the ozone altitude profile in the altitude range of 50–88 km only with the use of a complete model of electronic vibrational kinetics of O₂ and O₃ photolysis products (YM2011) in the Earth’s mesosphere and lower thermosphere. Alternative ozone tracers have been considered, and an optimum tracer in the altitude range of 50–100 km such as O₂(b¹Σ_g ⁺, ν = 1) molecule emissions has been proposed.     

Discussion: Misrepresentation of the USLE in ‘Is sediment delivery a fallacy?’

The assertion that the application of the USLE to predicting soil losses within a catchment or watershed is not sound because the USLE provides an estimate of erosion that would be measured if the entire area were divided up into 22·1 m long plots, and the output from them all added together, is incorrect. The slope length factor was derived from data obtained using a wide range of plot lengths and included the 22·1 m length simply to force it to take on a value of 1·0 when the slope length is 22·1 m. The 22·1 m length has no physical significance but the USLE slope length factor has a physical basis when applied to planar and convex hillslopes. The use of sediment delivery ratios when the USLE is applied to concave areas attempts to correct for applying the USLE beyond its design criteria. It fails because, in using the sediment delivery ratios in the prediction sediment delivery, it is incorrectly assumed that sediment delivery ratios de not vary with the amount of sediment entering a zone of deposition.     

Comparison of SPT and <Emphasis Type="Italic">V</Emphasis><Subscript>s</Subscript>-based liquefaction analyses: a case study in Erciş (Van,Turkey)

Liquefaction which is one of the most destructive ground deformations occurs during an earthquake in saturated or partially saturated silty and sandy soils, which may cause serious damages such as settlement and tilting of structures due to shear strength loss of soils. Standard (SPT) and cone (CPT) penetration tests as well as the shear wave velocity (V _s)-based methods are commonly used for the determination of liquefaction potential. In this research, it was aimed to compare the SPT and V _s-based liquefaction analysis methods by generating different earthquake scenarios. Accordingly, the Erci? residential area, which was mostly affected by the 2011 Van earthquake (M _w = 7.1), was chosen as the model site. Erci? (Van, Turkey) and its surroundings settle on an alluvial plain which consists of silty and sandy layers with shallow groundwater level. Moreover, Çald?ran, Erci?–Kocap?nar and Van Fault Zones are the major seismic sources of the region which have a significant potential of producing large magnitude earthquakes. After liquefaction assessments, the liquefaction potential in the western part of the region and in the coastal regions nearby the Lake Van is found to be higher than the other locations. Thus, it can be stated that the soil tightness and groundwater level dominantly control the liquefaction potential. In addition, the lateral spreading and sand boiling spots observed after the 23rd October 2011 Van earthquake overlap the scenario boundaries predicted in this study. Eventually, the use of V _s-based liquefaction analysis in collaboration with the SPT results is quite advantageous to assess the rate of liquefaction in a specific area.     

Significance of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Vibrio</Emphasis> species in the marine organic carbon cycle—A review

The genus Vibrio, belonging to Gammaproteobacteria of the phylum Proteobacteria, is a genetically and ecologically diverse group of heterotrophic bacteria, that are ubiquitous in marine environments, especially in coastal areas. In particular, vibrios dominate, i.e. up to 10% of the readily culturable marine bacteria in these habitats. The distribution of Vibrio spp. is shaped by various environmental parameters, notably temperature, salinity and dissolved organic carbon. Vibriospp. may utilize a wide range of organic carbon compounds, including chitin (this may be metabolized by most Vibrio spp.), alginic acid and agar. Many Vibrio spp. have very short replication times (as short as ~10 min), which could facilitate them developing into high biomass content albeit for relatively short durations. Although Vibriospp. usually comprise a minor portion (typically ~1% of the total bacterioplankton in coastal waters) of the total microbial population, they have been shown to proliferate explosively in response to various nutrient pulses, e.g., organic nutrients from algae blooms and iron (Fe⁺) from Saharan dust. Thus, Vibrio spp. may exert large impacts on marine organic carbon cycling especially in marginal seas. Genomics and related areas of investigation will reveal more about the molecular components and mechanisms involved in Vibrio-mediated biotransformation and remineralization processes.     

Spatio‐temporal tracer variability in the glacier melt end‐member — How does it affect hydrograph separation results?

Geochemical and isotopic tracers were often used in mixing models to estimate glacier melt contributions to streamflow, whereas the spatio‐temporal variability in the glacier melt tracer signature and its influence on tracer‐based hydrograph separation results received less attention. We present novel tracer data from a high‐elevation catchment (17 km², glacierized area: 34%) in the Oetztal Alps (Austria) and investigated the spatial, as well as the subdaily to monthly tracer variability of supraglacial meltwater and the temporal tracer variability of winter baseflow to infer groundwater dynamics. The streamflow tracer variability during winter baseflow conditions was small, and the glacier melt tracer variation was higher, especially at the end of the ablation period. We applied a three‐component mixing model with electrical conductivity and oxygen‐18. Hydrograph separation (groundwater, glacier melt, and rain) was performed for 6 single glacier melt‐induced days (i.e., 6 events) during the ablation period 2016 (July to September). Median fractions (±uncertainty) of groundwater, glacier melt, and rain for the events were estimated at 49±2%, 35±11%, and 16±11%, respectively. Minimum and maximum glacier melt fractions at the subdaily scale ranged between 2±5% and 76±11%, respectively. A sensitivity analysis showed that the intraseasonal glacier melt tracer variability had a marked effect on the estimated glacier melt contribution during events with large glacier melt fractions of streamflow. Intra‐daily and spatial variation of the glacier melt tracer signature played a negligible role in applying the mixing model. The results of this study (a) show the necessity to apply a multiple sampling approach in order to characterize the glacier melt end‐member and (b) reveal the importance of groundwater and rainfall–runoff dynamics in catchments with a glacial flow regime.     

Hydrochemical dynamics of the “lake–spring” system in the crater of El Chichón volcano (Chiapas,Mexico)

El Chichón volcano (Chiapas, Mexico) erupted violently in March–April 1982, breaching through the former volcano–hydrothermal system. Since then, the 1982 crater has hosted a shallow (1–3.3 m, acidic (pH ∼ 2.2) and warm (∼ 30 °C) crater lake with a strongly varying chemistry (Cl/SO₄ = 0–79 molar ratio). The changes in crater lake chemistry and volume are not systematically related to the seasonal variation of rainfall, but rather to the activity of near-neutral geyser-like springs in the crater (Soap Pool). These Soap Pool springs are the only sources of Cl for the lake. Their geyser-like behaviour with a long-term (months to years) periodicity is due to a specific geometry of the shallow boiling aquifer beneath the lake, which is the remnant of the 1983 Cl-rich (24,000 mg/l) crater lake water. The Soap Pool springs decreased in Cl content over time. The zero-time extrapolation (1982, year of the eruption) approaches the Cl content in the initial crater lake, meanwhile the extrapolation towards the future indicates a zero-Cl content by 2009 ± 1. This particular situation offers the opportunity to calculate mass balance and Cl budget to quantify the lake–spring system in the El Chichón crater. These calculations show that the water balance without the input of SP springs is negative, implying that the lake should disappear during the dry season. The isotopic composition of lake waters (δD and δ¹⁸O) coincide with this crater lake-SP dynamics, reflecting evaporation processes and mixing with SP geyser and meteoric water. Future dome growth, not observed yet in the post-1982 El Chichón crater, may be anticipated by changes in lake chemistry and dynamics.     

Deep structural characteristics and seismogenesis of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis>≥8.0 earthquakes in North China

Based on the results from seismogeological study, aeromagnetic inversion and deep seismic sounding (DSS), it is found that the M≥8.0 earthquakes in North China have three common deep structural characteristics, i.e., they all took place above the ultra-crustal deep faults or on the edges of the tectonic blocks with higher intensity, and there are low-velocity, low-density and high-conductive layers deep in the epicentral regions. The origins of the earthquakes are also discussed and the two possibilities of seismogenesis are proposed, i.e., tectonic movement and intracrustal explosion.