Properties of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2-layer critical frequency median in the nocturnal subauroral ionosphere during low and moderate solar activity

Based on an analysis of data from the European ionospheric stations at subauroral latitudes, it has been found that the main ionospheric trough (MIT) is not characteristic for the monthly median of the F2-layer critical frequency (foF2), at least for low and moderate solar activity. In order to explain this effect, the properties of foF2 in the nocturnal subauroral ionosphere have been additionally studied for low geomagnetic activity, when the MIT localization is known quite reliably. It has been found that at low and moderate solar activity during night hours in winter, the foF2 data from ionospheric stations are often absent in the MIT area. For this reason, a model of the foF2 monthly median, which was constructed from the remaining data of these stations, contains no MIT or a very weakly pronounced MIT.     

Statistical Analysis and Modeling of the Local Ionospheric Critical Frequency: A Mid-latitude Single-Station Model for Use in Forecasting

The hourly values of the F-layer critical frequency from the ionospheric sounder in Dourbes (50.1°N, 4.6°E) during the time interval from 1957 to 2010, comprising five solar cycles, were analyzed for the effects of the solar activity. The hourly time series were reduced to hourly monthly medians which in turn were used for fitting a single station foF₂ monthly median model. Two functional approaches have been investigated: a statistical approach and a spectral approach. The solar flux F_10.7 is used to model the dependence of foF₂ on the solar activity and is incorporated into both models by a polynomial expression. The statistical model employs polynomial functions to fit the F-layer critical frequency while the spectral model is based on spectral decomposition of the measured data and offers a better physical interpretation of the fitting parameters. The daytime and nighttime foF₂ values calculated by both approaches are compared during high and low solar activity. In general, the statistical model has a slightly lower uncertainty at the expense of the larger number of fitting parameters. However, the spectral approach is superior for modeling the periodic effects and performs better when comparing the results for high and low solar activity. Comparison with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI 2012) shows that both local models are better at describing the local values of the F-layer critical frequency.     

Planetary Wave Periods in <Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2 Time Variations Based on Winter Data from Kaliningrad Station in 2008−2010

The study presents the results of the analysis of the F2-layer critical frequency variations obtained for the winter periods of 2008–2010, during which sudden stratospheric warmings were observed. The data were obtained at Kaliningrad ionospheric station (54.6° N, 20° E) with the Parus digital ionosonde in standard sounding mode. The mean daily foF2 values were used in the analysis. The results of spectral analysis based on continuous wavelet transform showed that, during all of the warmings that occurred in 2008–2010, the foF2 time variations demonstrated the presence of wave processes with periods of approximately 5?6 days, as well as more extended processes with periods of ~10?13 and 23?30 days. These periods coincide with the characteristic periods of planetary waves observed in the mesosphere during sudden stratospheric warmings, while the 13- and 30-day periods can be conditioned by the influence of the Sun.     

Global empirical model of critical frequency of the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2-layer for quiet geomagnetic conditions

Using the foF2 database obtained from satellites and ground-based ionospheric stations, we have constructed a global empirical model of the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2-layer (SDMF2—Satellite and Digisonde Data Model of the F2 layer) for quiet geomagnetic conditions (Kp < 3). The input parameters of this model are the geographical coordinates, UT, day, month, year, and the integral index F10.7 (day, τ = 0.96) of solar activity for a given day. The SDMF2 model was based on the Legendre method for the spatial expansion of foF2 monthly medians to 12 in latitude and 8 in longitude of spherical harmonics. The resulting spatial coefficients have been expanded by the Fourier method in three spherical harmonics with respect to UT. The effect of the saturation of critical frequency of the ionospheric F2-layer at high solar activity was described in the SDMF2 model by foF2 as a logarithmic function of F10.7 (day, τ = 0.96). The difference between the SDMF2 and IRI models is a maximum at low solar activity as well as in the Southern Hemisphere and in the oceans. The testing on the basis of ground-based and satellite data has indicated that the SDMF2 model is more accurate than the IRI model.     

Effect of the IMF azimuthal component on the longitudinal position of the westward electrojet intensity maximum during strong geomagnetic storms

The distribution of the ionospheric currents during the geomagnetic storms of November 20–21, 2003, November 7–8, 2004, and November 9–10, 2004, depending on the IMF B _y component, has been studied based on the data from the global network of magnetic stations. It has been indicated that, during geomagnetic disturbances, the westward electrojet intensity maximum is localized in the evening sector at IMF B _y < 0 and in the morning sector at IMF B _y > 0. The region of the westward electrojet intensity maximum shifts to morning hours with increasing positive B _y values. Thus, the IMF azimuthal component forms not only the magnetospheric convection pattern during magnetic storms but is also responsible for the longitudinal position of ionospheric structures.     

Effect of Moon phases in riometer absorption and in the ionospheric and geomagnetic parameters

Variations in the frequency of occurrence of riometer absorption, minimum frequency of reflection of the ionospheric F layer, minimum height, and height of maximum electron density of the ionospheric F layer near the solar minimum have been studied. Application of the superposed epoch technique has detected the Moon phase effect on these ionospheric parameters. This effect was: three events per day in the occurrence of riometer absorption, 0.056 MHz in the minimum frequency of reflection of the F layer, and 2.6 and 6.7 km, in the change of the minimum height of reflection and height of reflection from the region with maximum electron density of the ionospheric F layer, respectively. The lunar tide action changes the ionospheric conductivity and, thus, influences the current systems of the magnetosphere. Through changes of magnetospheric currents, the Moon phase effect is exhibited in the Ap and Dst indices and is 4.3 and 4.25 nT, respectively.     

Long-term trends in the ratio of the daytime and nighttime values of <Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2

The consideration of the relation between the daytime and nighttime values of the critical frequency F2, foF2 of the ionospheric F2 layer, started in the previous publication of the authors, is continued. The main regularities in variations in the correlation coefficient R(foF2) characterizing this relation are confirmed using larger statistical material (more ionospheric stations and longer observational series). Long-term trends in the R(foF2) value are found: at all stations the negative value of R(foF2) increases with time after 1980.     

IRI model in the problem of predicting ionospheric radio-wave propagation under conditions of high solar activity

The paper presents the results of an analysis of the correspondence between model representations the monthly mean diurnal dependences of critical frequency and vertical profiles of plasma frequency at local noon at IZMIRAN station for the middle months of the four seasons of 2014, the year of the maximum solar activity in the current 24th cycle. It is shown that in general the IRI model reliably describes the daily variation of foF2, and the smallest discrepancy is achieved when its basic input parameter is given by the ionospheric index of solar activity IG12. An exception is April, for which there is a fundamental discrepancy with the model both in the daily variation of the critical frequency foF2 and in the N _e (h)-profile for local noon time. For this month, the inadequacy in the model representation of the vertical distribution of the electron density turned out to be very significant in the calculation of the MUF: the relative error can reach 20%. The simulation results are confirmed by data from oblique-incidence ionospheric radio sounding.     

Observations of large-scale plasma convection in the magnetosphere with respect to the geomagnetic activity level

The data of the ionospheric observations (the daily f plots) at the Yakutsk meridional chain of ionosondes (Yakutsk–Zhigansk–Batagai–Tixie Bay) with sharp decreases (breaks) in the critical frequency of the regular ionospheric F2 layer (foF2) are considered. The data for 1968–1983 were analyzed, and the statistics of the foF2 break observations, which indicate that these breaks are mainly registered in equinoctial months and in afternoon and evening hours under moderately disturbed geomagnetic conditions, are presented. Calculations performed using the prognostic model of the high-latitude ionosphere indicate that the critical frequency break position coincides with the equatorial boundary of large-scale plasma convection in the dusk MLT sector.     

Winter Anomaly in the Critical Frequency of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">E</Emphasis>-Layer in the Nighttime Polar Cap

With the medians of the E-layer critical frequency foE measured at Resolute Bay and Casey ionospheric stations located in the polar caps of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, it is found that these medians are higher at the nighttime hours (2100–0300 LT) in the local winter than in local summer. For Resolute Bay station, which is located above the Arctic Circle, the latter means that the foE median is higher at polar night than at polar day. Thus, the effect of a winter anomaly in the foE median in the nighttime polar cap is detected. The amplitude of that anomaly (the ratio of the local winter foE values to local summer values) could reach 15–20% and 10–15% for Resolute Bay and Casey stations, respectively. It is assumed that the winter anomaly in the foE median in the nighttime polar cap is caused by the winter–summer asymmetry in the accelerated electron energy fluxes precipitating into this region.     

Comparison of Ionospheric Parameters during Similar Geomagnetic Storms

The degree of closeness of ionospheric parameters during one magnetic storm and of the same parameters during another, similar, storm is estimated. Overall, four storms—two pairs of storms close in structure and appearance according to recording of the magnetic field Х-component—were analyzed. The examination was based on data from Sodankyla observatory (Finland). The f-graphs of the ionospheric vertical sounding, magnetometer data, and riometer data on absorption were used. The main results are as follows. The values of the critical frequencies foF2, foF1, and foE for different but similar magnetic storms differ insignificantly. In the daytime, the difference is on average 6% (from 0 to 11.1%) for all ionospheric layers. In the nighttime conditions, the difference for foF2 is 4%. The nighttime values of foEs differ on average by 20%. These estimates potentially make it possible to forecast ionospheric parameters for a particular storm.     

Empirical Model of the Location of the Main Ionospheric Trough

The empirical model of the location of the main ionospheric trough (MIT) is developed based on an analysis of data from CHAMP satellite measured at the altitudes of ~350–450 km during 2000–2007; the model is presented in the form of the analytical dependence of the invariant latitude of the trough minimum Φ_m on the magnetic local time (MLT), the geomagnetic activity, and the geographical longitude for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The time-weighted average index Kp(τ), the coefficient of which τ = 0.6 is determined by the requirement of the model minimum deviation from experimental data, is used as an indicator of geomagnetic activity. The model has no limitations, either in local time or geomagnetic activity. However, the initial set of MIT minima mainly contains data dealing with an interval of 16–08 MLT for Kp(τ) < 6; therefore, the model is rather qualitative outside this interval. It is also established that (a) the use of solar local time (SLT) instead of MLT increases the model error no more than by 5–10%; (b) the amplitude of the longitudinal effect at the latitude of MIT minimum in geomagnetic (invariant) coordinates is ten times lower than that in geographical coordinates.     

Properties of solar activity and ionosphere for solar cycle 25

Based on the known forecast of solar cycle 25 amplitude (Rz _max ≈ 50), the first assessments of the shape and amplitude of this cycle in the index of solar activity F10.7 (the magnitude of solar radio flux at the 10.7 cm wavelength) are given. It has been found that (F10.7)_max ≈ 115, which means that it is the lowest solar cycle ever encountered in the history of regular ionospheric measurements. For this reason, many ionospheric parameters for cycle 25, including the F2-layer peak height and critical frequency (hmF2 and foF2), will be extremely low. For example, at middle latitudes, typical foF2 values will not exceed 8–10 MHz, which makes ionospheric heating ineffective in the area of upper hybrid resonance at frequencies higher than 10 MHz. The density of the atmosphere will also be extremely low, which significantly extends the lifetime of low-orbit satellites. The probability of F-spread will be increased, especially during night hours.     

Spatial inhomogeneity of variations in the <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis><Subscript>2</Subscript> layer critical frequencies under the conditions of winter 1995

The daily samples of the hourly measurements of the foF2 critical frequency, obtained on January 5–21, 1995, at the midlatitude and high-latitude automated ionospheric stations (geographic latitude higher than 60°), are considered. The {fo} sets are transformed into the {δfoF2} sets of relative variations, for which asymmetry (A) and excess (E) are calculated. The selected stations are grouped into 20 pairs of automated ionospheric stations (AISs) located at distances of 200–10 000 km from one another. Sign estimates of the cross-correlation coefficients between the sets of 16 A and E values for different pairs of stations are used. Two types of structures of the statistical invariant spatial distribution are established: the structures with a scale of about 300 km, invariant with respect to latitude, and with a scale of about 6000 km (for only high latitudes).     

Diurnal and Longitudinal Variations of the Structure of an Equatorial Anomaly During Equinoxes According to Intercosmos-19 Satellite Data

Longitudinal and local time variations in the structure of the equatorial anomaly under high solar activity in the equinox are considered according to the Intercosmos-19 topside sounding data. It is shown that the anomaly begins to form at 0800 LT, when the southern crest is formed. The development of the equatorial anomaly is associated with well-known variations in the equatorial ionosphere: a change in the direction of the electric field from the west to the east, which causes vertical plasma drift W (directed upward) and the fountain effect. At 1000 LT, both anomaly crests appear, but they become completely symmetrical only by 1400 LT. The average position of the crests increases from I = 20° at 1000 LT to I = 28° at 1400 LT. The position of the crests is quite strong, sometimes up to 15°, varies with longitude. The foF2 value above the equator and the equatorial anomaly intensity (EAI) at 1200–1400 LT vary with the longitude according to changes in the vertical plasma drift velocity W. At this time, four harmonics are observed in the longitudinal variations of W, foF2, and EAI. The equatorial anomaly intensity increases to the maximum 1.5–2 h after the evening burst in the vertical plasma drift velocity. Longitudinal variations of foF2 for 2000–2200 LT are also associated with corresponding variations in the vertical plasma drift velocity. The equatorial anomaly intensity decreases after the maximum at 2000 LT and the crests decrease in size and shift towards the equator, but the anomaly is well developed at midnight. On the contrary, after midnight, foF2 maxima in the region of the anomaly crests are farther from the equator, but this is obviously associated with the action of the neutral wind. At 0200 LT, in contrast to the morning hours, only the northern crest of the anomaly is clearly pronounced. Thus, in the case of high solar activity during the equinoxes, a well-defined equatorial anomaly is observed from 1000 to 2400 LT. It reaches the maximum at 2000 LT.     

Long-Term Trends in the Critical Frequency of the E-layer

A search for trends k(foE) in the critical frequency of the ionospheric E layer at Juliusruh and Slough stations is performed by the method often used by the authors to analyze trends in the F2-layer parameters. It is found that k(foE) could differ in both magnitude and even sign within different time intervals. However, the k(foE) trends have been stably negative over the last two decades for both stations and all months of the year. The k(foE) values averaged over a year are ?0.012 and ?0.005 MHz per year for Juliusruh and Slough stations, respectively. The method used in the recent paper by La?tovi?ka et al. (2016) to determine foE trends is analyzed, and it is shown that the difference in linear approximation of the dependence of the observed foE values on F10.7 within different time intervals could be interpreted not as the presence of a different foE dependence on the F10.7 index within these intervals but as the presence within them of foE trends that change the slope of the linear approximation.     

Critical frequencies <Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2 as an indicator of trends in thermospheric dynamics

The time variations in three parameters during the last decades are considered. R(foF2) is the correlation coefficient between the nighttime and daytime values of foF2 for the same day. Stable trends are found for the minimum (R(foF2)(max)) and maximum (R(foF2)(min)) values of R(foF2) during a year. The foF2(night)/foF2(day) ratio demonstrates both, negative and positive trends, and the trend sign depends on the inclination I and declination D of the magnetic field. The correlation coefficient r(h, fo) between foF2 and the 100 hP level in the stratosphere demonstrates a decrease (in the years of maximum and minimum solar activity) from the 1980s to the 1990s. The trends in all three groups of data are considered under the assumption of long-term changes in the circulation in the upper atmosphere.     

Effect of zonal E × B plasma drift on electron density in the low-latitude ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis> region at a solar activity maximum near vernal equinox

The variations in the density of the ionospheric F2 layer maximum (NmF2) under the action of the zonal plasma drift perpendicularly to the magnetic (B) and electric (E) fields in the direction geomagnetic west-geomagnetic east have been studied using the three-dimensional nonstationary theoretical model of electron and ion densities (N _e and N _i ) and temperatures (T _e and T _i ) in the low-latitude and midlatitude ionospheric F region and plasmasphere. The method of numerical calculations of N _e , N _i , T _e , and T _i , including the advantages of the Lagrangian and Eulerian methods, is used in the model. A dipole approximation of the geomagnetic field (B), taking into account the non-coincidence of the geographic and geomagnetic poles and differences between the positions of the Earth’s and geomagnetic dipole centers, is accepted in the calculations. The calculated NmF2 and altitudes of the F2 layer maximum (hmF2) have been compared with these quantities measured at 16 low-latitude ionospheric sounding stations during the geomagnetically quiet period October 11–12, 1958. This comparison made it possible to correct the input model parameters: the NRLMSISE-00 model [O], the meridional component of the neutral wind velocity according to the HWW90 model, and the meridional component of the equatorial plasma drift due to the electric field specified by the empirical model. It has been indicated that the effect of the zonal E × B plasma drift on NmF2 can be neglected under daytime conditions and changes in NmF2 and hmF2 under the action of this drift are insignificant under nighttime conditions north of 25° and south of ?26° geomagnetic latitude. The effect of the zonal E × B plasma drift on NmF2 and hmF2 is most substantial in the nightside ionosphere approximately from ?20° to 20° geomagnetic latitude, and the neglect of this drift results in an up to 2.4-fold underestimation of NmF2. The found dependence of the effect of the zonal E × B plasma drift on NmF2 and hmF2 on geomagnetic latitude is related to the longitudinal asymmetry of B, asymmetry of the neutral wind about the geomagnetic equator, and changes in the meridional E × B plasma drift at a change in geomagnetic longitude.     

Possible Short-Term Precursors of Strong Crustal Earthquakes in Japan based on Data from the Ground Stations of Vertical Ionospheric Sounding

We have studied changes in the ionosphere prior to strong crustal earthquakes with magnitudes of М ≥ 6.5 based on the data from the ground-based stations of vertical ionospheric sounding Kokobunji, Akita, and Wakkanai for the period 1968–2004. The data are analyzed based on hourly measurements of the virtual height and frequency parameters of the sporadic E layer and critical frequency of the regular F2 layer over the course of three days prior to the earthquakes. In the studied intervals of time before all earthquakes, anomalous changes were discovered both in the frequency parameters of the Es and F2 ionospheric layers and in the virtual height of the sporadic E layer; the changes were observed on the same day at stations spaced apart by several hundred kilometers. A high degree of correlation is found between the lead-time of these ionospheric anomalies preceding the seismic impact and the magnitude of the subsequent earthquakes. It is concluded that such ionospheric disturbances can be short-term ionospheric precursors of earthquakes.