How can the ISC location procedures be improved?

For many decades the International Seismological Centre (ISC) has used a well defined procedure to locate seismic events using first P-onsets and the Jeffreys-Bullen tables ([Jeffreys, H., Bullen, K.E., 1940. Seismological Tables. British Association for the Advancement of Science, Gray Milne Trust, London, 50 pp]) as the travel-time reference. However, during the last two decades, more accurate spherical Earth models have been published and enhanced computer capabilities make it easier to implement more sophisticated data inversion schemes. Several features that may improve the location procedure at the ISC were systematically tested using the location program HYPOSAT. The investigated features were the influence of

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the usage of the spherical Earth models JB, PREM, IASP91, SP6, and AK135;

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the usage of later onsets;

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travel-time corrections for local crustal structure based on CRUST 5.1;

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different weighting of the residuals;

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reducing the amount of defining data at a late stage of the inversion process.

Application of different combinations of these factors led to a reduction of the location errors for the 156 test events, of which the epicenter is known with an accuracy of less than 5 km. However, no clear rule of common factors to achieve this result could be defined. Most promising is the application of AK135 as model for travel-time calculations, applying crust specific station corrections and corrections for the reflection points of surface reflections, a combined usage of surface and core reflections, and removing data which have large residuals or do not much contribute to the solution for the last iterations.     

Can sand dunes be used to study historic storm events?

Knowing the long‐term frequency of high magnitude storm events that cause coastal inundation is critical for present coastal management, especially in the context of rising sea levels and potentially increasing frequency and severity of storm events. Coastal sand dunes may provide a sedimentary archive of past storm events from which long‐term frequencies of large storms can be reconstructed. This study uses novel portable optically stimulated luminescence (POSL) profiles from coastal dunes to reconstruct the sedimentary archive of storm and surge activity for Norfolk, UK. Application of POSL profiling with supporting luminescence ages and particle size analysis to coastal dunes provides not only information of dunefield evolution but also on past coastal storms. In this study, seven storm events, two major, were identified from the dune archive spanning the last 140 years. These appear to correspond to historical reports of major storm surges. Dunes appear to be only recording (at least at the sampling resolution used here) the highest storm levels that were associated with significant flooding. As such the approach seems to hold promise to obtain a better understanding of the frequency of large storms by extending the dune archive records further back to times when documentation of storm surges was sparse. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Can Hydraulic Conductivity of Fluvial Sediments be Informed by Spectral Reflectance?

Water Resources - This study explores the statistical relationship between spectral reflectance and hydraulic conductivity (K) of fluvial sediments in two Nebraska rivers. The spectral reflectance...     

The Haitian housing dilemma: can sustainability and hazard-resilience be achieved?

The present danger in the Haitian rebuilding efforts, outside of the extreme level of need that often encourages temporary solutions at the expense of long-term capacity building, centers on the assumption that sustainability and resilience are mutually exclusive. They cannot be if this rare opportunity to achieve meaningful long-term change within a country that has suffered for far too long is to be fully seized. This change can be realized only with appropriate policies and incentives that do not simply fund the re-implementation of vulnerable construction modes in an effort to meet immediate needs, but that foster the introduction of alternative structural systems with the requirement that they build genuine local capacity to deliver sustainable and resilient homes that meet Haiti’s cultural and economic constraints. This short communication reviews the important housing dilemma Haiti now faces, a dilemma with international extensions since researchers and construction firms from all over the world (including France, Germany, Italy, Greece, Japan, Canada, US) are involved, and presents thoughts for the importance of offering solutions that serve both ends of the economic spectrum, are hazard-resilient and truly sustainable.     

Can patterns in benthic communities be explained by an environmental pressure index?

Many studies have assessed in unison specific biological attributes and certain environmental impacts but few studies have analyzed multiple biological variables and pressures from multiple sites at the same time. Our study’s goal was to quantify the major potential human pressures in the shallow subtidal rocky reefs along a tropical Atlantic coast; propose a relative environmental pressure index and investigate the relationships between environmental pressures, the benthic community and coral population attributes. The analysis of human pressures suggests that one-third of sites were under high or very high proportional stress. Sites with high human pressure had lower live cover, higher percent of recent mortality and density of Siderastrea stellata. These relations were species specific. The coral species S.stellata seemed to be the best indicator of present environmental stress. These findings demonstrate the need to include multiple species and stressors in monitoring programs designed to contribute to coastal management initiatives.     

Can recreational echosounder-chartplotter systems be used to perform accurate nearshore bathymetric surveys?

This work intends to determine if low-cost surveying techniques based on recreational echosounders can be used to perform nearshore bathymetry for analysing evolution of coastal sectors. For that purpose, two hydrographic surveying techniques were compared, i.e. (1) a real-time kinematic differential global positioning system (RTK-DGPS) synchronised with a single beam echosounder with real-time tidal elevation correction and (2) a low-cost recreational echosounder-chartplotter system using Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) with real-time European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service (EGNOS) augmentation services and depth values post-processed using measured sea level. Two bathymetric data sets were obtained, one by each method, for the same area and survey lines at an ebb tidal delta (Tavira Inlet, Ria Formosa Portugal). Vertical differences were determined assuming no morphological variations between surveys. Results showed that depth elevation differences between bathymetric surfaces were of 0.10?±?0.16 m, slightly higher but within the same order of the error attributable to the used interpolator (0.00?±?0.11 m, triangular surface fitting). The differences between surveys performed with two different equipment sets and using different methodologies for correcting water elevations are very small both quantitative and qualitatively. Those differences can be diminished by improving the tidal level correction and uncertainties associated to different tidal slopes throughout the survey area. Pitch/roll corrections performed with low-cost GPS receivers would be also a valuable addition to the accuracy and precision of the method. It is then concluded that navigation with EGNOS augmentation services and sounding devices ten times cheaper than combined RTK-DGPS with single beam echosounders allow to measure and monitor accurately the nearshore bathymetry.     

Can recently-hatched crayfish cling to moving ducks and be transported during flight?

The red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) is a freshwater invasive species which has become a worldwide problem. Recent work on ectozoochory of freshwater macrocrustacean species indicated that there might be a possibility of transport of recently-hatched crayfish by birds. In this context, we applied a new set of methods to quantify the probability of transport of recently-hatched crayfish, namely with moving animal vectors. First, we tested the desiccation resistance of crayfish and the capacity of crayfish to cling to mallard's feet, depending on the standing time of the feet. We also determined the ability of recently-hatched crayfish to cling to an artificially moving freshly dead mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) and finally, we determined the time required for the death of 50% and 90% of the individuals of recently-hatched crayfish under conditions similar to those of mallard flight.Recently-hatched crayfish were able to survive up to 225 min out of water, withstanding longer at a lower temperature and therefore transport does not seem to be limited by desiccation survival. The duration of the standing period of duck's feet positively affected the probability of transport of crayfish. Recently-hatched crayfish were able to cling to a moving duck and the probability of clinging was significantly affected by the water depth, being lower at greater depths. Moreover, when transported on a freshly dead duck under flight simulation conditions the time required for the death of 50% and 90% of the individuals were 2 min 14 s and 4 min 53 s, respectively. These flight durations correspond to transport distances of 2.8 km and 6.1 km, respectively, which is enough for transport to another aquatic system. The results demonstrate that passive transport of recently hatched P. clarkii by actively moving waterbirds is possible, and therefore it will likely enhance the local process of invasion.     

Can the Waves Generated by Fast Ferries be a Physical Model of Tsunami?

The potential of long ship-induced waves to serve as a physical model for tsunami waves (called simply tsunami below) is examined. Such waves (wavelengths more than 200 m at depths down to 10–20 m) are induced by high-speed ferries sailing at near-critical speeds in semisheltered, relatively shallow areas. It is shown based on experience from Tallinn Bay, Baltic Sea, that for many aspects these waves can model nearshore dynamics and runup of tsunami caused by landslides, including processes of wave refraction, diffraction, and sea-bottom interaction in bays and harbors. Many governing nondimensional parameters (such as the nonlinearity, dispersion, Reynolds and Ursell numbers, surf similarity parameter, breaking parameter, etc.) of the largest ship waves and landslide tsunamis have the same order of magnitude. It is especially important that use of ship waves for wave propagation and runup studies allows their spatial structure to be accounted for adequately. Near-critical ship waves can therefore be used as a natural substitute for tsunami, for study under controlled and safe conditions.     

Can abundance of geomorphological features be predicted using presence–absence data?

Geomorphological models are useful tools for assessing the impacts of changing environmental conditions on earth surface processes and landforms. Here we evaluate the feasibility of predicting the abundance (spatial coverage) of geomorphological features using presence–absence data. To achieve the study goals, generalized linear models (GLMs), spatial predictors and geomorphological data from a thoroughly inventoried area of 600 km² in sub‐Arctic Finland at a resolution of 25 ha were utilized in the exercise. The key finding was that the GLMs derived from presence–absence data performed as consistently, as a relative index of abundance, as models derived directly from the abundance data. Thus, predictions based on presence–absence data may serve as a reasonable surrogate for abundance of geomorphological features. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The three screen doors: can marine "protected" areas be effective?

The great majority of marine protected areas (MPAs) fail to meet their management objectives. So MPAs can be effective conservation tools, we recommend two paradigm shifts, the first related to how they are located and the second related to how they are managed. MPAs are unlikely to be effective if they are located in areas that are subject to numerous, and often uncontrollable, external stressors from atmospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic sources, all of which can degrade the environment and compromise protection. MPA effectiveness is also limited by low institutional and community capacity for management and inappropriate size with respect to ecological needs. In particular, the check list approach to management does not ensure that key threats are dealt with, or that management expenditures provide a quantifiable return. We recommend a business planning approach to MPA management, in which managers focus on the viability of the management system, i.e., the ability of the MPA to provide ecological goods and services to its target users over the long term.     

Can a pollution event be detected using a single biological effects monitoring method?

The trends of malformation prevalence in embryos of dab, Limanda limanda, in the southern North Sea after the year 1990 mirrored the drop in major pollutants in the rivers draining into the German Bight. Despite this general decline, we detected a pollution event in the southern North Sea in winter 1995/1996 employing the prevalence of malformations in pelagic dab embryos as an indicator. An abrupt rise in malformation prevalence in the embryos of dab, corresponded to a dramatic increase in DDT levels in parent fish from the same area, indicating a hitherto unnoticed introduction of considerable quantities of DDT into the system.     

Copula models for frequency analysis what can be learned from a Bayesian perspective?

Large spring floods in the Québec region exhibit correlated peakflow, duration and volume. Consequently, traditional univariate hydrological frequency analyses must be complemented by multivariate probabilistic assessment to provide a meaningful design flood level as requested in hydrological engineering (based on return period evaluation of a single quantity of interest). In this paper we study 47 years of a peak/volume dataset for the Romaine River with a parametric copula model. The margins are modeled with a normal or gamma distribution and the dependence is depicted through a parametric family of copulas (Arch 12 or Arch 14). Parameter joint inference and model selection are performed under the Bayesian paradigm. This approach enlightens specific features of interest for hydrological engineering: (i) cross correlation between margin parameters are stronger than expected , (ii) marginal distributions cannot be forgotten in the model selection process and (iii) special attention must be addressed to model validation as far as extreme values are of concern.     

What Can be Expected from the GRACE-FO Laser Ranging Interferometer for Earth Science Applications?

The primary objective of the gravity recovery and climate experiment follow-on (GRACE-FO) satellite mission, due for launch in August 2017, is to continue the GRACE time series of global monthly gravity field models. For this, evolved versions of the GRACE microwave instrument, GPS receiver, and accelerometer will be used. A secondary objective is to demonstrate the effectiveness of a laser ranging interferometer (LRI) in improving the satellite-to-satellite tracking measurement performance. In order to investigate the expected enhancement for Earth science applications, we have performed a full-scale simulation over the nominal mission lifetime of 5 years using a realistic orbit scenario and error assumptions both for instrument and background model errors. Unfiltered differences between the synthetic input and the finally recovered time-variable monthly gravity models show notable improvements with the LRI, on a global scale, of the order of 23 %. The gain is realized for wavelengths smaller than 240 km in case of Gaussian filtering but decreases to just a few percent when anisotropic filtering is applied. This is also confirmed for some typical regional Earth science applications which show randomly distributed patterns of small improvements but also degradations when using DDK4-filtered LRI-based models. Analysis of applied error models indicates that accelerometer noise followed by ocean tide and non-tidal mass variation errors are the main contributors to the overall GRACE-FO gravity model error. Improvements in these fields are therefore necessary, besides optimized constellations, to make use of the increased LRI accuracy and to significantly improve gravity field models from next-generation gravity missions.     

Can plankton communities be considered as bio-indicators of water quality in the Lagoon of Venice?

This study examines whether plankton of the Lagoon of Venice could be considered as a bio-indicator of areas subjected to various anthropogenic influences. This study was a two year hydrochemical and biological survey in five areas of the Lagoon of Venice, each with different environmental conditions due to pollution from urban, industrial, thermal and agricultural wastes. Phytoplankton associations did not show any promising species. In the different lagoonal areas, this community was differentiated into its major groups. In contrast, the copepod Acartia tonsa Dana could be considered as a target species in highly eutrophic areas.     

Will typhoon over the western North Pacific be more frequent in the Blue Arctic conditions?

How would typhoon activity over the western North Pacific change for various scenarios of future global warming?Using the model projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3(CMIP 3)under the SRES A1B scenario,we generated summer(September)ice-free Arctic conditions,also referred to as Blue Arctic conditions,and then used the corresponding monthly sea surface temperature(SST)and a set of CO2concentrations to drive an AGCM model to simulate the resulting changes in background conditions affecting typhoon activity over the western North Pacific.Our results show that,during typhoon season(June to October),atmospheric and ocean circulations over the western North Pacific would be significantly different from the present circulations.Changes in the vertical shear of zonal wind and outgoing longwave radiation(OLR)in the western North Pacific are favorable for westward and northward shift,respectively,of the location of typhoon genesis.Moreover,changes in the above fields over the key area may be conducive to less frequent typhoons.In addition,the tropical cyclone genesis potential index(GPI)over the western North Pacific would decrease(increase)east(west)of 150°E(140°E).