A re-examination of the evidence for a Plio-Pleistocene marine transgression on the Chiltern Hills. III. deposits

A petrological re-examination of the deposits that Wooldridge and Linton used as evidence for a Plio-Pleistocene marine transgression on the Chiltern Hills indicates that many are fluvial and some have been reworked in a periglacial climate. However, those from Little Heath and Rothamsted, Hertfordshire and Lane End, Buckinghamshire are confirmed as marine and Plio-Pleistocene. Subsidence during the Pleistocene is suggested by the northeasterly decline in height of the few truly marine deposits.     

A re-examination of the evidence for a plio-pleistocene marine transgression on the Chiltern hills. I. structures and surfaces

Borehole and surface outcrop data are used to construct sub-Chalk, sub-Upper Chalk and sub-Tertiary contour maps for the Chiltern area. The results show a southwest-northeast monocline, which coincides with the change of slope at the lower boundary of the morphological bench on the Chalk dipslope that Wooldridge and Linton attributed to Plio-Pleistocene marine erosion. Younger northwest-southeast synclines coincide with the main transverse river valleys of the Chilterns. The monoclinal flexuring casts doubt on the value of the bench as evidence for a Plio-Pleistocene transgression.     

A comparison of element outputs in solution,suspended sediments and bedload for a small upland catchment

The individual outputs of several elements in solution, suspended solids and bedload were estimated for a stream draining a small upland catchment in mid-Wales. The data indicate the overall importance of transport in solution, although the solid phase can make a significant contribution to the export of potassium, iron and silicon from the site.     

Effect of mining and related activities on the sediment trace element geochemistry of lake coeur D'Alene,idaho, USA. Part I: Surface sediments

During the summer of 1989 surface sediment samples were collected in Lake Coeur d'Alene, the Coeur d'Alene River and the St Joe River, Idaho, at a density of approximately one sample per square kilometre. Additional samples were collected from the banks of the South Fork of the Coeur d'Alene and the Coeur d'Alene Rivers in 1991. All the samples were collected to determine trace element concentrations, partitioning and distribution patterns, and to relate them to mining, mining related and discharge operations that have occurred in the Coeur d'Alene district since the 1880s, some of which are ongoing. Most of the surface sediments in Lake Coeur d'Alene north of Conkling Point and Carey Bay are substantially enriched in Ag, As, Cu, Cd, Hg, Pb, Sb and Zn relative to unaffected sediments in the southern portion of the lake near the St Joe River. All the trace element enriched sediments are extremely fine grained (mean grain sizes « 63 μm). Most of the enriched trace elements, based on both the chemical analyses of separated heavy and light mineral fractions and a two step sequential extraction procedure, are associated with an operationally defined Fe oxide phase; much smaller percentages are associated either with operationally defined organics/sulphides or refractory phases. The presence, concentration and distribution of the Fe oxides and heavy minerals indicates that a substantial portion of the enriched trace elements are probably coming from the Coeur d'Alene River, which is serving as a point source. Within the lake, this relatively simple point source pattern is complicated by a combination of (1) the formation of trace element rich authigenic Fe oxides that appear to have reprecipitated from material solubilized from anoxic bed sediments and (2) physical remobilization by currents and wind driven waves. The processes that have caused the trace element enrichment in the surface sediments of Lake Coeur d'Alene are likely to continue for the foreseeable future.     

Geomorphic effects of a 10-year storm on a small drainage Basin in the Texas Panhandle

Bedded Permian salt in the Palo Duro Basin of the Texas Panhandle is being considered for isolation of nuclear waste. Studies underway to evaluate the geomorphic processes affecting any waste repository that may be sited in the region include studies of the geomorphic events associated with individual storms. On 26 May, 1978, thunderstorms occurred near Canyon, Texas, which received 130mm of rain, and on a small instrumented watershed at Buffalo Lake, 16 km to the southwest, which received 71 mm of rain. Rainfall at Buffalo Lake was concentrated in a period of 3 hours, representing a return period of approximately 10 years and a maximum 30-minute intensity of 64 mm/hour. Erosion-pin fields, topographic surveys, and stakes for headcut monitoring had been established 2 to 3 months before the storm in a 640-m long tributary canyon to Tierra Blanca Creek downstream of Buffalo Lake. Canyon slopes of moderately to slightly calichified sands and gravels of the Ogallala Formation are capped by well-indurated caliche on the canyon rim. Erosion-pin fields showed average net erosion of 2·4 cm (0° to 9° slope) to 2·7 cm (10° to 19° slope) and a single-pin maximum value of 6·2 cm in the 20° to 29° slope class. Headcuts 1 to 2 m deep in alluvial-colluvial material on the floor of the canyon migrated as much as 12 m upstream. Canyon floor deposition occurred as a series of elongate bars, 16m long and longer, located at the mouth of tributary gullies, downstream from scours, and at slope breaks. Grain sizes ranged from boulders up to 70cm in intermediate axis deposited in the upper canyon to fine to very fine sand deposited as a sheet up to 25cm thick beyond the mouth of the canyon at Tierra Blanca Creek. In an adjacent canyon a sequence of irregular beds of caliche gravel, mixed sand and gravel, and fine sand up to 3 m thick is exposed. Comparison of this sequence with deposits resulting from the 26 May, 1978, storm suggests that the coarse fraction of the alluvial sequence is deposited by repetitive major storm events. Cobble and boulder units 30 to 70cm thick can evidently be deposited in a few hours. Under the continental climate of the Texas Panhandle, erosion, deposition, and stream incision are taking place primarily in discrete steps related to episodes of intense rainfall.     

Self-Organizing Maps for identification of zeolitic diagenesis patterns in closed hydrologic systems on the Earth and its implications for Mars

We have conducted a survey of zeolite occurrences in saline-alkaline paleolake deposits on Earth to identify the most prominent zeolite alteration patterns and to characterize the most common authigenic minerals and their paragenetic relationships. We collected the bulk mineral assemblages (from previous and our studies) as identified by X-ray diffraction from zeolitic tuff beds and associated sedimentary beds from thirteen paleolake deposits from the USA, Mexico, Greece, and Tanzania. We applied the Kohonen Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) to look for interesting patterns in the tuff bed mineral assemblages without prescribing any specific interpretation, and for information reduction and classification. Decision Tree (DT) method was applied to characterize these clusters. We were able to define clear class boundaries between fresh glass, non-analcime zeolites, analcime, and K feldspar. The non-analcime zeolites were further grouped into several classes based on mineral type. We also discuss the potential implications for Mars, showing that the mineral assemblages of diagenetic facies identified by SOM and DT can be used to test or validate the orbital, in situ, or modeling results, while the trained SOM provides a robust generalized ability to classify the new mineral assemblage data into the most common diagenetic facies identified in saline-alkaline paleoenvironments that contain zeolites. The study concludes that generalizing the complex geochemical behaviors using unsupervised statistical learning methods can help to identify the most prominent geochemical behaviors.     

Effects of a variety of Indian Ocean surface temperature anomaly patterns on the summer monsoon circulation: Experiments with the NCAR general circulation model

The time mean response of the summer monsoon circulation, as simulated by the 2.5° latitude-longitude resolution, July version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Circulation Model (GCM), to a variety of Indian Ocean surface temperature anomaly patterns is examined. In separate experiments, prescribed changes in surface temperature are imposed in the Western Arabian Sea, the Eastern Arbian Sea or the Central Indian Ocean. The influence of these anomaly patterns on the simulated summer monsoon circulation is evaluated in terms of the geographical distribution of the prescribed change response for any field of interest. This response is defined as the grid point difference between a 30-day mean from a prescribed change experiment and the ensemble average of the 30-day means from the control population for which the same set of climatological ocean surface temperatures are used in each simulation. The statistical significance of such a prescribed change response is estimated by relating the normalized response (defined as the ratio of the prescribed change response to the standard deviation of 30-day means as estimated from the finite sample of control cases) to the classical Student'st-statistic. Using this methodology, the most prominent and statistically significant features of the model's response are increased vertical velocity and precipitation over warm anomalies and typically decreased vertical velocity and precipitation in some preferred region adjacent to the prescribed change region. In the case of cold anomalies, these changes are of opposite sign. However, none of the imposed anomaly patterns produces substantial or statistically significant precipitation changes over large areas of the Indian sub-continent. The only evidence of a major nonlocal effect is found in the experiment with a large positive anomaly (+3°C) in the Central Indian Ocean. In this instance, vertical velocity and precipitation are reduced over Malaysia and a large area of the Equatorial Western Pacific Ocean. Thus, while these anomaly experiments produce only a local response (for the most part), it is hoped, as one of the purposes of the planned Monsoon Experiment (MONEX), that the necessary data will be provided to produce detailed empirical evidence on the extent to which Indian Ocean surface temperature anomalies correlate with precipitation anomalies over the Indian subcontinent—a correlation which generally does not appear in these GCM results.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation     

Statistical analyses of the effect of a drainage tunnel on landslide hydrogeological characteristics

A high groundwater level is highly relevant to the slope instability. Drainage tunnel is an effective method for groundwater level control, but its effect on landslide hydrogeological characteristics is rarely discussed. This study analysed the changes of the landslide hydrogeological characteristics under the effect of a drainage tunnel by real-time monitoring of rainfall, groundwater level, and surface displacement. The trend and mutation of groundwater level are analysed by the Mann–Kendall test and the Mann–Kendall mutation test. The memory effect of groundwater in the landslide area was analysed using autocorrelation analysis. The response characteristics of groundwater level to rainfall were evaluated using cross-correlation analysis and mutual information theory. Variations of groundwater levels were further investigated based on hydrograph analysis. Results showed that the groundwater level had a downward trend from 2016 to 2017. The significant downward trend of groundwater levels began in August 2016. The memory effect of groundwater levels was longer under the effect of the drainage tunnel. Before the construction of the drainage tunnel, the response time of groundwater to rainfall was less than 3 hr and rainfall can generate dramatic groundwater level variations. After the drainage tunnel was completed, time lags can be observed in the groundwater response, and the variation of groundwater levels was smaller than before. A strong correlation was found between groundwater levels and the landslide movement. This study demonstrated that the drainage tunnel had effectively controlled the groundwater level in the landslide and ensured the stability of the landslide.     

Using a landform evolution model to study ephemeral gullying in agricultural fields: the effects of rainfall patterns on ephemeral gully dynamics

Water driven soil erosion is a major cause of land degradation worldwide. Ephemeral gullies (EGs) are considered key contributors to agricultural catchment soil loss. Despite their importance, the parameters and drivers controlling EG dynamics have not been adequately quantified. Here we investigate the effects of rainfall characteristics on EGs, using the physically based landform evolution model (LEM) CAESAR‐Lisflood. An initial goal of this study was to test the feasibility of using a LEM to estimate EG dynamics based on an easily obtainable and moderate spatial resolution (2 × 2 m) Digital Elevation Model (DEM). EG evolution was simulated for two rainfall seasons in a 0.37 km² agricultural plot situated in a semiarid catchment in central Israel. The 2014 rainfall season was used to calibrate the model and the 2015 season was used for validation. The model overall well predicted the EG network structure and average depth but tended to underestimate the EG length. The effects of rainfall characteristics on EG dynamics were investigated by comparing simulations employing seven rainfall scenarios. Four of these scenarios differ in their overall rainfall volume relative to observed precipitation (+20%, +10%, ?10%, ?20%). The remaining three scenarios vary in the temporal distribution of rainfall during each storm, allowing us to isolate the effect of rainfall intensity on EG evolution. The results show that: (1) EG dynamics strongly correlated with changes in rainfall volume; (2) small‐scale morphological behavior varies between rainfall scenarios, resulting in different meandering and connectivity variability; (3) EG evolution is divided into two main stages, an initial rapid development occurring after the first two weeks of the rainy season, followed by a stable development period; (4) a 12 mm h^?1 intensity threshold was observed to initiate and, later, modify EGs; and (5) inner storm rainfall variability can have a considerable effect on EG evolution. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using geostatistics and spectral analysis to study spatial patterns in the topography of southeastern Washington State,U.S.A.

Topography for four areas in the Palouse region of southeastern Washington State having different patterns and encompassing areas of about 900 ha each were quantitatively compared and described using two-dimensional semi-variograms and periodograms. The four areas studied were from the Garfield, La Crosse, Thornton, and Wilcox quadrangle topographic maps. Semivariance of elevation residuals were modelled using a combination of spherical, periodic, or linear semivariogram models. The range of the spherical component was interpreted as a relatively short-range scale of correlation which was not periodic. For each of the study areas a model was developed to describe the variation in range with orientation. Values for the range from this model reached maximum values of from about 700 m to 800 m at an orientation of from 35° to 55° (approximately northeast) in each study area. This orientation was interpreted as the dominant direction of non-periodic small-scale landscape features. The wavelength and amplitude of the periodic semivariogram component, which were highly correlated, were interpreted in terms of parallel northeast-trending ridges having relatively long scales of periodic correlation varying in size from about 1350 m to 2100 m. This attempt to identify the dominant orientation of periodic landscape features using models for the wavelength and amplitude was, however, not completely definitive. Two-dimensional spectral analysis provided significantly more detail concerning orientation and wavelengths of the periodic topographic patterns than the semivariogram analysis. In the Garfield study area, spectral analysis identified north-trending ridge systems separated by a wavelength of 1494 m and northeast-trending systems with a wavelength of 747 m. In the La Crosse study area, both north and northeast-trending patterns were identified having periodic spacings of 980 and 735 m. North-trending ridges separated by wavelengths of 996 m and northeast-trending ridges separated by wavelengths of 747 or 996 m were the predominant periodic features of topography in the Thornton study area. In the Wilcox study area, northeast-trending ridge systems separated by wavelengths of 373, 498, or 996 m were detected. A comparison of the results from geostatistical and spectral analysis of these complex topographic surfaces shows that each approach had significant strengths and weaknesses. Two-dimensional analysis with semivariograms was the only method which could be used for identifying the correlation scale and orientation of relatively small non-periodic landscape features. Two-dimensional spectral analysis accurately identified the predominant orientation of relatively large periodic features in topography, whereas semivariogram analysis was somewhat inconclusive. Also, semivariograms were generally unable to detect the presence of multiple or harmonic periodicities operating at different wavelengths along a given orientation.     

Tilting of active folds and drainage asymmetry on the Manawatu anticlines,New Zealand: a preliminary investigation

The apparent southward tilting of five anticlines in the Manawatu, North Island, New Zealand, is investigated using two drainage basin analysis techniques: the transverse topographic symmetry factor (T) and the asymmetry factor (AF). The techniques are used to determine whether westward‐flowing trunk streams on the gentle western limbs of five anticlines are migrating southwards across their drainage basins, concomitant with down‐tilting of the fold axes. While results show potential for the techniques to be applied in such a tectonic setting, our findings are inconclusive. This could be due to the incipient nature of the folds (c. 0·5 Ma in age), and it would seem more appropriate to apply the techniques in concert with detailed field analyses of river migration patterns. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of the constitutive relationship on seismic response of soils. Part II. The site amplification study

This paper is the first part of the general paper dealing with effects of constitutive modeling of cyclic stress–strain behavior of soils on site amplification. The paper concentrates on modeling of pseudo-static cyclic soil behavior in small to medium strain range. In order to fit the small strain data accurately, the chosen analytical stress–strain relationship should satisfy the specific small strain condition formulated for soils using the small strain data from the pseudo-static cyclic tests. Analysis of conventional relationships, in particular the Ramberg–Osgood (R–O) relationship, indicated that a failure to satisfy this condition lead to low accuracy of prediction of both tangent stiffness and damping ratio at small and medium strains. The logarithmic function originally proposed to describe static monotonic stress–strain behavior is applied to fit experimental cyclic backbone curves. Constructed to satisfy the formulated small strain condition for soils, this function has proven to be free from the limitations of the R–O and other relationships. When applied in combination with the Masing rules to predict damping ratios, it gives a good prediction in the small to medium strain range, where the Masing hypothesis is supported by experimental evidence.     

A note on the applicability of log-Gumbel and log-logistic probability distributions in hydrological analyses: II. Assumed pdf

Abstract

Applicability of log-Gumbel (LG) and log-logistic (LL) probability distributions in hydrological studies is critically examined under real conditions, where the assumed distribution differs from the true one. The set of alternative distributions consists of five two-parameter distributions with zero lower bound, including LG and LL as well as lognormal (LN), linear diffusion analogy (LD) and gamma (Ga) distributions. The log-Gumbel distribution is considered as both a false and a true distribution. The model error of upper quantiles and of the first two moments is analytically derived for three estimation methods: the method of moments (MOM), the linear moments method (LMM) and the maximum likelihood method (MLM). These estimation methods are used as methods of approximation of one distribution by another distribution. As recommended in the first of this two-part series of papers, MLM turns out to be the worst method, if the assumed LG or LL distribution is not the true one. It produces a huge bias of upper quantiles, which is at least one order higher than that of the other two methods. However, the reverse case, i.e. acceptance of LN, LD or Ga as a hypothetical distribution, while the LG or LL distribution is the true one, gives the MLM bias of reasonable magnitude in upper quantiles. Therefore, one should avoid choosing the LG and LL distributions in flood frequency analysis, especially if MLM is to be applied.     

A review of pollutants in the sea-surface microlayer (SML): a unique habitat for marine organisms

Boundary layers between different environmental compartments represent critical interfaces for biological, chemical and physical processes. The sea-surface microlayer (uppermost 1-1000 microm layer) forms the boundary layer interface between the atmosphere and ocean. Environmental processes are controlled by the SML, and it is known to play a key role in the global distribution of anthropogenic pollutants. Due to its unique chemical composition, the upper organic film of the SML represents both a sink and a source for a range of pollutants including chlorinated hydrocarbons, organotin compounds, petroleum hydrocarbons, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and heavy metals. These pollutants can be enriched in the SML by up to 500 times relative to concentrations occurring in the underlying bulk water column. The SML is also a unique ecosystem, serving as an important habitat for fish eggs and larvae. Concentration ranges and enrichment factors of pollutants in the SML in different areas of the world's oceans have been critically reviewed, together with available toxicity data for marine biota found within the SML. Overall, the SML is highly contaminated in many urban and industrialized areas of the world, resulting in severe ecotoxicological impacts. Such impacts may lead to drastic effects on the marine food web and to fishery recruitment in coastal waters. Studies of the toxicity of fish eggs and larvae exposed to the SML contaminants have shown that the SML in polluted areas leads to significantly higher rates of mortality and abnormality of fish embryos and larvae.     

Comprehensive evaluation of regional flood frequency analysis by L- and LH-moments. II. Development of LH-moments parameters for the generalized Pareto and generalized logistic distributions

As part II of a sequence of two papers, previously developed L-moments by Hosking (1990), and the LH-moments by Wang (1997) are further investigated. The LH-moments (L to L₄) are used to develop the regional parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution, generalized Pareto (GPA) distribution and the generalized logistic (GLO) distributions. These respective probability distribution functions (PDFs) are evaluated in terms of their performances. Flood peaks by the corresponding PDFs are compared with those generated by Monte Carlo simulation of randomized data, considering the respective LH-moments. The influence of the LH-moments on estimated PDFs are studied by evaluating the relative bias (RBIAS) in quantile estimation due to variability of the k parameter. Karkhe watershed located in western Iran was used as a case study area. Part I of this study identified the study area as regions A and B. The minimum calculated relative root mean square error (RRMSE) and RBIAS between simulated flood peaks and flood peaks by the corresponding PDFs were used in PDF selection, considering the respective LH-moments. The boxplots of the RRMSE tests identified the L₃ level of the GPA distribution as the suitable PDF for sample sizes 20 and 80; for region A. Similar results were found for the RBIAS test. As for region B, the boxplots of the RRMSE tests indicated similar results for the three PDFs. However, the boxplots of the RBIAS tests identified the L₄ level of the GLO most suitable for sample sizes 20 and 80. Relative efficiencies of the LH-moments were investigated, measured as RRMSE ratios of L-moments over the respective LH-moments. For the most parts the findings of this part of the study were similar to those of part I.     

The impact of freshwater discharges on the ocean circulation in the Skagerrak/northern North Sea area. Part II: energy analysis

We perform eddy-permitting to eddy-resolving simulations of the Skagerrak/northern North Sea with a terrain-following numerical ocean model. We demonstrate that realistic representations of freshwater input are not required when the focus is on modelling mesoscale structures such as meanders and eddies. To arrive at this conclusion, we analyze the results using a recently developed energy diagnostic scheme to study the sensitivity to realistic representations of the lateral freshwater flux provided to the area from the Baltic Sea and by the major rivers. The scheme is suitable for analysis of growth of instabilities, and it has four basic instability processes prominent. We recognize both horizontal and vertical shear instabilities. There are two processes where average potential energy is converted to eddy kinetic energy, and they are related to the mean gradient in surface elevation and the mean lateral density gradient, respectively. The latter process is known as frontal instability. We demonstrate that the change in the eddy kinetic energy field is small, despite the large variations in the hydrographic properties from experiment to experiment. Moreover, generation of eddy activity appears at the same locations and with approximately the same strength regardless of actual representations of freshwater input. Furthermore, we find that vertical shear instability dominates the energy conversion processes in the Norwegian Coastal Current. Finally, we find that the areas off the northwest coast of Denmark recognized with enhanced eddy kinetic energy level is not caused by instability processes but eddy–eddy interaction rooted in variations in the sea level.     

A retrospective analysis of contamination and periphyton PICT patterns for the antifoulant irgarol 1051, around a small marina on the Swedish west coast

Irgarol is a triazine photosystem II (PSII) inhibitor that has been used in Sweden as an antifouling ingredient since the 1990s. Early microcosm studies indicated that periphyton was sensitive to irgarol at concentrations regularly found in harbours and marinas. However, field studies of irgarol effects on the Swedish west coast in 1994, using the pollution-induced community tolerance (PICT) approach, failed to detect any effects of the toxicant in the field. A PICT study involves sampling of replicate communities in a gradient of contamination, and a comparison of their community tolerance levels, with an increase being an indication that sensitive species have been eliminated and replaced by more tolerant ones. Typically, short-term assays are used to quantify the community tolerance levels. Later PICT studies in the same area over a 10 year period demonstrate that irgarol tolerance levels have increased, although the contamination pattern has been stable. Our results support the hypothesis that that the PICT potential was low initially, due to a small differential sensitivity between the community members, and that a persistent selection pressure was required to favour and enrich irgarol-tolerant species or genotypes.     

HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan - A regional programme of measures for the marine environment based on the Ecosystem Approach

The Helsinki Commission (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan, adopted by the coastal countries of the Baltic Sea and the European Community in November 2007, is a regional intergovernmental programme of measures for the protection and management of the marine environment explicitly based on the Ecosystem Approach. The Action Plan is structured around a set of Ecological Objectives used to define indicators and targets, including effect-based nutrient input ceilings, and to monitor implementation. The Action Plan strongly links Baltic marine environmental concerns to important socio-economic fields such as agriculture and fisheries and promotes cross-sectoral tools including marine spatial planning. Due to complementarities with the European Union (EU) Marine Strategy Framework Directive, the Action Plan is in essence a pilot for this process without neglecting the important role of the Russian Federation - the only Baltic coastal country not a member of the EU.     

A case for a reassessment of the risks of extreme hydrological hazards in the Caribbean

There is an urgent need for the development and implementation of modern statistical methodology for long-term risk assessment of extreme hydrological hazards in the Caribbean. Notwithstanding the inevitable scarcity of data relating to extreme events, recent results and approaches call into question standard methods of estimation of the risks of environmental catastrophes that are currently adopted. Estimation of extreme hazards is often based on the Gumbel model and on crude methods for estimating predictive probabilities. In both cases the result is often a remarkable underestimation of the predicted probabilities for disasters of large magnitude. Simplifications do not stop here: assumptions of data homogeneity and temporal independence are usually made regardless of potential inconsistencies with genuine process behaviour and the fact that results may be sensitive to such mis-specifications. These issues are of particular relevance for the Caribbean, given its exposure to diverse meteorological climate conditions.In this article we present an examination of predictive methodologies for the assessment of long-term risks of hydrological hazards, with particular focus on applications to rainfall and flooding, motivated by three data sets from the Caribbean region. Consideration is given to classical and Bayesian methods of inference for annual maxima and daily peaks-over-threshold models. We also examine situations where data non-homogeneity is compromised by an unknown seasonal structure, and the situation in which the process under examination has a physical upper limit. We highlight the fact that standard Gumbel analyses routinely assign near-zero probability to subsequently observed disasters, and that for San Juan, Puerto Rico, standard 100-year predicted rainfall estimates may be routinely underestimated by a factor of two.