北京市房价与地价的动态关系——基于结构方程模型的实证分析

城市房价与地价之间的关系错综复杂,不仅受多种因素的交织影响,相互之间也存在动态关系。研究房价与地价关系的传统方法,如Granger因果检验和回归分析等,无法刻画房价与地价之间多维的网络状关系,相比之下,结构方程模型能同时处理多个内生潜变量,且不受观测指标共线性的影响,为刻画地价与房价的交互作用提供了新的工具。从住房与土地市场的供需传导机制出发,推导出房价与地价的结构模型,以北京市为例,运用2003-2013年居住用地价格和2014年在售楼盘价格,与北京市GIS电子地图相匹配,提取商服中心可达性、公共交通可达性、道路可达性、商服繁华度、设施便利性等解释变量,构建地价与房价结构方程模型,分析二者之间的结构关系。     

转型期广州市生命历程与住房产权转换

作为家庭生命历程中的重要事件,住房产权转换与家庭特征变化、个人与工作单位的关系以及区域住房市场环境变化紧密相关。采取事件史分析方法,将住房产权转换与个体生命历程中的重要事件关联起来,分析住房产权转换的影响因素。对住房产权转换的持续期的研究发现,处于租房状态下的住户改变产权状态的愿望较强,但产权一旦进入自有状态,居民改变产权的愿望就会降低;从住房产权的生存时间来看,最终向全部产权转变的生存时间最长,其次是向资助产权的转变,最短的是向租房产权转变;通过建立COX’s比例风险模型分析发现,家庭生命周期变化和组织变量对住房产权转换的影响都非常显著,说明在中国特殊背景下,住房产权的转换不仅与家庭基本特征变化密切有关,还与个人单位的基本特征密切相关,这正是转型时期计划体制和市场分配体制双重力量相互作用的结果。     

基于决策树法的北京城市居民通勤距离模式挖掘

以问卷调查数据为基础,引进决策树分析方法,讨论了北京市城市居民通勤距离模式。研究发现:第一,在设定的修剪纯度下,北京城市居民通勤距离远近与出行工具、居住地变更、职业、居住地就业率、最小孩子求学状况、住房面积、家庭月收入、机动车利用状况密切相关;第二,在影响城市居民通勤距离的变量中,出行工具变量的重要性最大,其次是住房面积变量、最小孩子求学变量,再次为居住地变更变量、职业变量,家庭月收入变量为第四等级,机动车使用变量和本地就业率为第五等级。第三,因住房产权复杂性、迁居原因的多样性、被动郊区化以及生产、育儿福利及家庭内部事务分工等因素的影响,住房面积、迁居史、家庭生命周期、职业与通勤距离的关系与国内已有结论相悖,部分变量因子对短距离通勤具有决定性影响,部分变量对于长距离通勤有决定性影响。     

兰州市主城区房价分异及驱动因素研究

以2021年兰州市主城区678个居住小区房价数据为基础,引入地理场模型量化影响房价的外部因素,通过空间自相关分析、多尺度地理加权回归等模型对房价分异的空间格局及驱动因素的作用机理、带宽差异展开研究,以期为推动河谷型城市房产市场的公平发展提供参考。结果表明:(1)兰州市主城区平均房价为13739元·m^-2,空间上呈现“一主三副”的带状多中心组团式分布格局,房价由多中心向四周递减,价格相似的小区在地理空间上邻近分布,具有“小集中、大分散”的局部空间特征。(2)房价分异是多种驱动因素共同作用的结果,区位特征中的主商圈对房价的影响居于首位,建筑特征中的房龄、容积率和邻里特征中的中学数量、绿化率等对房价的影响较大,城市地理特征对房价具有显著影响,愈靠近黄河的小区、房价越高。(3)各驱动因素的带宽差异明显,主商圈、医院等小尺度变量存在高度空间异质性,而容积率、黄河等全局变量基本不存在空间异质性。     

代际传递视角下中国城市家庭住房产权获得——基于上海的实证研究

随着中国城市住房价格大幅上涨,住房可支付性成为青年面临的严峻挑战。尽管越来越多的研究开始关注中国城市住房不平等问题,但大多侧重住房资源分配由国家向市场的转移,相对而言,家庭在住房资源获取中的作用被忽视。本文选取上海市作为研究区域,使用2013年长三角社会变迁调查数据,以上海“80后”青年家庭为研究对象,重点关注夫妻双方父母的住房状况和社会经济属性对青年家庭住房产权获得的影响及性别差异。研究发现,父母户口很大程度上影响着青年家庭的住房结果;不同户口状况的父母住房财富存在较大分化,其影响着年轻家庭可获得的家庭购房资助的数额。与妻子父母相比,丈夫父母的户口状况对青年家庭住房结果的影响更大;而妻子父母在本地且拥有住房产权的双重优势与青年家庭住房产权获得有更强的正向联系。家庭背景对子代住房的影响结合婚姻匹配机制使住房优势或劣势在青年家庭内部累积,或会加剧住房分化现象。     

住房制度改革背景下广州市居民居住偏好研究

住房制度改革以前,国家控制着住房的供应,人们没有选择住房的自由。改革后,家庭越来越依靠市场来满足其住房需求,个人购买商品房的比例得以提高。择居自由度的增加意味着住房消费个体差异的扩大,居民住房偏好成为住房市场健康发展的重要影响因素,分析住房市场化下居民住房偏好及其影响因素有重要意义。采取表述性偏好正交实验设计和联合统计分析方法,对处在改革前沿的广州市居民住房偏好及其影响因素进行分析。结果表明：在居民住房选择中,居住区位和小区特征比住房本身更重要;居住小区特征中,居民最关注住房所在区域,老城区越秀和东山和城市新中心天河区成为居民偏爱之地,但不同收入家庭区域偏好有所差异,高收入阶层明显偏好于新中心区天河区,而低收入阶层却更热衷于老城区;住房价格和居室朝向是重要影响因素,居民明显表现出对低价格住房和南向居室的偏好;除此之外,相对较重要的因素还有小区治安、交通和生活便利程度;而房屋类型、房屋布局和物业管理重要性相对较小,但高收入阶层明显比低收入阶层看重物业管理。     

基于邻里效应视角的城市居民心理健康影响因素研究——以广州市为例

随着新型城镇化、健康中国等战略的提出,“城市健康”成为社会各界关注的重要议题。然而,既有研究较少基于邻里效应的视角,揭示城市社区环境对居民心理健康的影响因素。论文基于2015年广州市23个社区的1150份问卷调查数据,从邻里效应的视角出发,采用多层线性回归模型,识别了广州市居民心理健康的决定因素,尤其关注社区建成环境和社会环境的影响。研究发现,广州市居民的心理健康水平在社区层面存在空间异质性,由个体层面因素与社区层面因素所共同决定。就个体因素而言,受教育程度、住房产权和身体健康状况对心理健康水平有显著的正向预测作用;就社区建成环境因素而言,服务设施配套和公园绿地供给均与心理健康水平呈显著的正相关关系;就社区社会环境因素而言,社区纠纷数量对心理健康有显著的负向预测作用,社区组织数量和邻里交往频率对心理健康有显著的正向预测作用。建议通过社区规划和社区建设,加大公共服务设施和公园绿地的供给,健全社区组织,鼓励邻里交往,从而提升居民的心理健康水平。     

A SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF RENT SHIFTS IN THE CHICAGO RENTAL HOUSING MARKET, 1970-1980

Residential rent shift variations across space are essential components of urban dynamics. For example, they play an important role in the context of housing availability, housing affordability, and urban revitalization. This paper develops a rent shift model that includes spatial variables and traditional housing market attributes such as housing quality and resident composition. The model estimation employs data for the City of Chicago, 1970- 1980. The results show that the impact of housing market attributes on rent shifts are distorted if spatial effects are neglected. They further support the hypothesis that spatial rent shift regularities prevail after controlling for variations in housing market attributes. Specifically, rent shifts decrease in a nonlinear fashion with increasing distance from the Central Business District (CBD). The distance relationship varies as the orientation toward the CBD changes. In addition, the positive effects of spatial lag variables are highly significant and suggest a rent equilibrating mechanism operating across urban space.     

FLOODPLAIN DELINEATION AND HOUSING SUBMARKETS: TWO CASE STUDIES

The effect of floodplain designation on the residential real estate market in two communities, Elmira, NY and Wilkes-Barre, PA, is presented. Discriminant analysis differentiates between floodplain and nonfloodplain housing, using as independent variables characteristics of the houses sold. Several varibles define submarkets, but they vary between the communities. Only selling price and lot size were significant for both communities. Distinct floodplain and nonfloodplain housing markets can be differentiated. This allows for isolation of socioeconomic and environmental variables that may contribute to the recovery of housing values following flooding or to the implementation of land use controls associated with floodplain designation.     

历史街区居民保护态度的影响因素分析——以福州“三坊七巷”历史街区为例

在对福州"三坊七巷"历史街区居民深入调查的基础上,运用Logit模型对历史街区内居民的保护态度的影响因素进行研究,认为居民的性别、年龄、婚姻状况、人均住房面积、住宅状况及居民对保护政策的知晓度对居民保护态度产生重要影响,而文化、收入、居住时长、工作状况、房屋性质对居民的保护态度影响不显著.在此基础之上对这些因素进行分析.最后,针对研究结果给出了实践启示,同时指出了研究中存在的不足和未来的研究方向.     

流动人口购房意愿影响因素的空间异质性——基于MGWR模型的研究

基于2016年中国流动人口动态监测数据,运用多尺度地理加权回归模型对流动人口流入地购房意愿影响因素的空间异质性进行分析。研究发现：① 中国流动人口在流入地城市的购房意愿整体偏低,尤其在流动人口聚集的东南沿海地区,流动人口购房意愿最低。② 多尺度地理加权回归（multi-scale geographically weighted regression,MGWR）模型能识别出不同因素对购房意愿的影响具有空间尺度差异,其中户口类型、流动范围、流动次数等显著变量对不同区域流动人口购房意愿的影响存在明显的区域差异。③ 各影响因素呈现显著的空间分异格局,其中婚姻状况、户口类型、职业类型、房价、公共服务等因素对东南地区购房意愿的影响较大,收入、流动次数、已购住房、随迁子女等因素对东北地区购房意愿的影响更大,西北地区平均受教育年限和拥有住房公积金对流动人口购房意愿的正向促进作用显著,而跨省流动的负向影响由西北向中部地区梯度递减。     

Patterns and Meanings of Housing: Residential Mobility and Homeownership among Former Refugees

Abstract

This article explores the patterns of residential mobility and homeownership, and in particular the meanings that former refugees attach to housing and neighborhood. While there are numerous studies on housing among voluntary migrants, studies that focus exclusively on refugees are rare. This multi-method study is based on interviews and a questionnaire survey with participants from Burma and the African Great Lakes Region in Buffalo, New York, who had arrived in the United States since 1995. Residential mobility patterns and meanings of housing indicate substantial differences between households in the two groups. The central argument of the paper is that the patterns and the meanings of housing are shaped by: (1) current socio-economic characteristics and resources, including educational attainment, employment status, and income; (2) current housing market conditions, including housing prices and racial discrimination; and (3) pre-migration experiences, including socio-economic status, socialization, and the corresponding internalized structures of meanings with respect to residential and housing patterns.     

路网形态与住宅价格的多尺度空间关系研究——基于空间网络分析与多尺度地理加权回归模型

针对以往住宅价格影响因素分析中忽略城市路网形态参数的问题,该文基于空间网络分析,将不同搜索半径下道路接近度与穿行度纳入住宅价格特征变量,构建空间计量模型,探究成都市路网形态对住宅价格的驱动效应。结果表明:1)相比享乐回归模型和地理加权回归模型,多尺度地理加权回归模型揭示了不同变量的空间影响尺度,更适用于探究成都市路网形态对住宅价格的影响;2)路网的局部接近度、局部穿行度核心位于二环内,全局接近度核心主要分布在四环内,全局穿行度核心主要分布在交通干道上;3)不同搜索半径下对住宅价格具有显著驱动效应的接近度均为全局尺度变量,该效应在空间上相对平稳,而穿行度作为局部变量,其在空间上的影响尺度随搜索半径的变化而存在差异,具有一定的空间异质性,其中,路网接近度对住宅价格产生正向影响,其系数空间格局呈跨尺度相似特征,而穿行度产生负向影响,其系数空间格局呈跨尺度变异特征;4)各搜索半径下路网形态变量的差异可在一定程度上改变消费者对其他影响因素的偏好程度。     

旅游景区顾客的满意度指数模型

在对现有国际主流顾客满意度指数模型进行改进的基础上,结合旅游景区的特点,构建了旅游景区顾客满意度指数 (TACSI) 模型。该模型是一个具有因果关系的结构方程模型,包括7个潜变量和23个观测变量,各潜变量之间存在着11种正负相关关系。以桂林象山公园为例进行了实证研究,运用LISREL统计软件对模型的检验结果表明,测量模型中的观测变量对顾客满意度的影响是显著的,测量模型具有较高的目标可靠性;结构模型中各潜变量之间的路径系数与假定基本符合;TACSI模型的整体拟合性能良好。此外,通过对TACSI模型与美国顾客满意度指数 (ACSI) 模型进行比较发现,TACSI模型具有比ACSI模型更强的解释能力,因而更具合理性。     

交互作用视角下人口流动性与住房类型对城市入室盗窃空间格局的影响

已有研究发现社区住房类型对城市入室盗窃的空间格局有重要影响,但鲜有学者探讨位于不同人口流动程度社区环境中的不同住房对入室盗窃影响的差异。本研究以中国东南沿海城市ZG市为例,基于日常活动和社会失序等理论,以社区为分析单元,利用入室盗窃警情数据、第六次人口普查数据和兴趣点数据（Point of Interest, POI）,运用空间滞后负二项回归方法,分析人口流动性与住房类型的交互作用对入室盗窃空间格局的影响。结果表明：人口流动性高的社区入室盗窃率较高;自建住房比例对入室盗窃率有显著的正向影响,原公有住房比例和商品房比例则呈显著的抑制作用;交互变量的结果发现,人口流动性与不同类型住房变量的交互作用存在差异,其中,人口流动性与自建住房、经济适用房、原公有住房的交互变量对入室盗窃的发生具有显著的促进作用,而与商品房的交互对入室盗窃的影响并不显著。说明在探讨不同类型住房与入室盗窃的关系时,应重视其所在社区的人口流动程度的影响。     

Homeownership and housing consumption change in Urban China: Guangzhou under market transition

ABSTRACT

Homeownership attainment is often seen as the first step in climbing the housing ladder and the building of wealth through acquisition of housing equity. While a number of authors have examined the issue of homeownership switch in China under market transition, the present paper is probably the first study on the extent of housing improvement in conjunction with and after the attainment of homeownership. Based on a household survey conducted in 2010, the study shows that ownership attainment in Guangzhou is generally accompanied by marked housing improvements, and subsequent moves bring further but percentage-wise much smaller improvements. While institution-related factors such as nature of work unit and occupational status might continue to be important, their effects on housing improvements are likely to be felt mainly through the income variable. But hukou status remains significant. More specifically, former peasants on the urban–rural fringe with claim to landownership rights have benefited most from the market-oriented land and housing reform.     

Ethnic Capital and Assimilation to the Great Australian (Homeownership) Dream: the early housing experience of Australia's skilled immigrants

We use the Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants to Australia, 2005–2006, to examine the housing tenure experience of skilled immigrants to Australia 6 and 18 months after arrival for relationships with ethnic capital (cultural background), visa category streams, aspects of human capital, demographics, social capital and discrimination. Homeownership experience is used to indicate integration into Australia's dominantly middle-class society. Multinomial regression analysis identifies visa entry category as the most important independent group of variables accounting for immigrants' short-term dwelling tenure, followed by aspects of human capital, family status, and the importance of ethnic capital for immigrants of both English-speaking and non-English-speaking backgrounds, and discrimination.     

From rags to riches? Migration and intergenerational change in London's housing market, 1971–91

Summary In 1971 under half of London's young people, then living with their parents, lived in households that owned their homes, while well over half lived in rented housing. By 1991, now no longer living with their parents, less than a quarter of these young people were tenants. This paper identifies the components of that intergenerational tenure mobility, distinguishing between home ownership in more, and less, 'desirable' wards, and quantifies the role of migration in mediating the overall changes in Londoner's housing market status between 1971 and 1991. It analyses the moderating factors contributing to housing status mobility, such as labour market mobility and household type, and assesses the differential impact of these processes on men and women. ONS Longitudinal Study data for the period 1971–91 are analysed. Findings are that the aggregate changes concealed a range of housing careers. In particular, in-migrants fared less well in the London housing market than in its labour market.     

HOUSING MARKETS IN THE TWILIGHT OF MATERIALISM

Local housing markets mediate national growth of the housing stock and of household numbers. Unearned capital gains on housing for some homeowners produce corrosive effects resembling those generated by excessive material rewards in certain service industries. Excesses of a political economy driven by fair and unfair materialistic drives camouflage the arrival of a global information society whose terms of power and participation take non-material forms. Housing as shelter and neighborhood starts to replace housing as speculative investment and status symbol.     

市场转型期中国大城市低收入社区住房分异研究

基于2007年在广州、武汉、西安3个大城市的低收入社区开展的大型入户调查数据,在社区尺度探究了中国大城市低收入社区中不同社会经济群体间的住房分异情况,并分析了在社会经济转型背景下的制度因素(如户口、邻里类型、雇主类型等)和市场因素（如社会群体、年龄、受教育程度、家庭收入、职业等）对住房产权和居住条件的影响。通过计算泰尔指数发现,大城市低收入社区中不同群体间和群体内的住房分异情况都较显著,但群体内部的差异较群体间的差异更为明显。对住房条件的多元回归分析结果表明,低收入社区不同社会群体的住房条件在不同程度上受到制度因素和市场因素的影响。制度因素对住房面积等难以在短时间内改变的住房条件的作用较市场因素更显著,而市场因素对于住房设施等较易改变的住房条件的影响要比制度因素明显。