BASIC PORTFOLIO MODELS FOR INTERREGIONAL ANALYSIS

Basic contemporary portfolio models are applied to an interregional economic analysis of U.S. Census Regions during 1963-1978. The models are well suited the type of analysis that partitions a region's economic cycle into national and local components. Portfolio theory provides a logic for interregional cross investment; results of an empirical test indicate portfolio theory may be superior to simple neoclassical theory in explaining spatial patterns of capital investment.     

FREDERICK JACKSON TURNER AS A REGIONALIST∗

Basic contemporary portfolio models are applied to an interregional economic analysis of U.S. Census Regions during 1963-1978. The models are well suited the type of analysis that partitions a region's economic cycle into national and local components. Portfolio theory provides a logic for interregional cross investment; results of an empirical test indicate portfolio theory may be superior to simple neoclassical theory in explaining spatial patterns of capital investment.     

SPATIAL PATTERNS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN THE UNITED STATES

Recent foreign direct investment in the U.S. has undergone changes in its geographical location. Previous investment was mostly concentrated in the traditional industrial heartland of the Northeast and Midwest. Now there is a distinct drift to the Sunbelt and Pacific states. This reorientation is occurring faster than for manufacturing as a whole. A combination of regional competition and industrial-mix effects together with the changing national origins of foreign direct investment account for a large share of these changes.     

The investment-worth model: Concepts and methods for estimation of model parameters

A holistic investiment methodology defined as the investiment-worth model is developed to evaluate the risks and rewards of capital investments. The model demonstrates that the investment worth of a mining project is not the same for all firms in the industry. The attractiveness of a project varies with economic and risk-related characteristics of a firm.     

Equity vs. Efficiency: Public Capital Investment in Ohio, 1988–1992

Recent research on the role of public capital in the economy focuses primarily on assessing its economic, and sometimes spatial economic, impacts. Access to more detailed and disaggregate data than typically used in these analyses allows us to take a fresh perspective on the often conflicting goals of interregional equity and aggregate efficiency. Using the state of Ohio as a case study, and classic definitions of equity and efficiency, we assess the correspondence between distributions of infrastructure investment and the social/economic distress they are intended to alleviate. Traditional map and statistical analysis combined with a graphical device we call the variegated distribution plot reveals that, in both rates and levels, investment is highest in areas of greatest distress. Both patterns are consistent with equity-driven investment distributions.     

Equity vs. Efficiency: Public Capital Investment in Ohio, 1988–1992

Recent research on the role of public capital in the economy focuses primarily on assessing its economic, and sometimes spatial economic, impacts. Access to more detailed and disaggregate data than typically used in these analyses allows us to take a fresh perspective on the often conflicting goals of interregional equity and aggregate efficiency. Using the state of Ohio as a case study, and classic definitions of equity and efficiency, we assess the correspondence between distributions of infrastructure investment and the social/economic distress they are intended to alleviate. Traditional map and statistical analysis combined with a graphical device we call the variegated distribution plot reveals that, in both rates and levels, investment is highest in areas of greatest distress. Both patterns are consistent with equity-driven investment distributions.     

产业地理集聚与外商直接投资产业分布——以北京市制造业为例

外商直接投资理论强调跨国公司的垄断优势和东道国的区位优势决定外商直接投资的产业分布。本文认为外商直接投资的产业分布还可能取决于因产业地理集聚和地方化贸易所形成的竞争优势。本文采用1999~2004年北京外商直接投资的产业流资料建立面板数据回归模型,引入产业地理集聚系数、产业联系等变量来研究影响外资产业分布的因素。统计分析表明,在空间上比较集聚、产业内联系较强的产业能够吸引更多的外商直接投资;前期外商投资对于跟进投资具有显著的示范效应、信息溢出效应以及产业联系效应,从而直接导致外资的产业累积效应。外商也强烈偏好资本技术密集型产业以及在国际市场上具有显著比较优势、盈利率高的产业。外商在充分利用其垄断优势、产业比较优势和竞争优势的同时,也尽量避开实际劳动成本较高和进入壁垒较高的垄断性产业。本文的结果显示,发挥本地优势,完善产业配套,促成产业集群是提升城市吸引外商直接投资的有效途径。     

The economic geography of institutional investment in the United States, 2010

The economic geography of United States’ institutional investments as of December 2010 is presented. With a self-declared value of almost $13 trillion, it is the largest class of equity investors. Included are all investors who file Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) form 13f, meaning they manage at least $100 million. Analysis is undertaken at both the firm and metropolitan levels. The largest firms and targets of investment are determined. Geographic concentrations of both investors and their major stock holdings occur in a small subset (the top 10 largest metropolitan areas). The rates of returns on investments are shown to differ by metropolitan area of investment and by urban rank in the urban hierarchy. Intra-metropolitan investment provides worse rates of returns, countering suggestions of informational advantages for local investment. The network of interurban investments shows a clear hierarchical structure, with New York City being the dominant investment centre.     

时空压缩下的中国乡村空间生产——以广州市域乡村投资为例

党的十九大报告提出“乡村振兴”战略,人文地理学者的角色是从空间和区域的角度参与各类乡村振兴实践和思考。马克思主义地理学代表人物大卫·哈维指出,“时空压缩”现象加剧了资本积累的危机,要消除危机,必须从生产方式和生产关系的革命入手。本文以2015-2017年广州市企业投资中的乡村项目为例,分析哪些项目是消除区域发展两级分化、抵制资本纯粹追逐利润的,从而为政府重点鼓励何类项目提供依据。本文采用经验主义的数据统计分析方法,主要研究结论为：①从空间分布上看,2015-2017年企业投资在广州乡村的项目大部分是按照“纯粹”市场原则分布的,即投资项目以近郊为主,高投资额的投资项目也集中在近郊,这种分布是“时空压缩”的结果。②2015-2017年少部分投资在广州乡村的项目并非“纯粹”追求利润,它们主要是为改变乡村生活的环境质量,而非生产经营性的、“空间修复”型的项目,更能体现人们对幸福生活本质理解的积极性项目。     

Fiscal decentralization,political centralization,and land urbanization in China

This study investigates the driving forces of land urbanization in China. Drawing upon insights from the institutional perspective, this study argues that fiscal decentralization tightens local budget constraints, stimulating local governments to urbanize land to relieve fiscal distress. Political centralization triggers interregional competition among government officials for better economic performance, inspiring local governments to employ land development to mobilize more capital investment for growth. Based on official land-use change data from 2002 to 2008 for prefectural cities, and the application of spatial econometric models, this study presents empirical evidence to support these theoretical arguments. Results imply that fiscal and political incentives derived from land development drive China’s land urbanization process. This study enriches the urbanization literature by providing an institutional understanding of rapid land urbanization in a transitional economy.     

粤港澳大湾区人口老龄化时空特征及其经济效应

中国新时代“两个十五年”的现代化强国战略周期,恰恰是快速人口老龄化纵深发展期,人口年龄结构快速老龄化与经济社会之间的发展不平衡矛盾将日益严峻。本文利用广东省第四次、第五次、第六次人口普查资料、2015年广东省1%人口抽样调查资料、香港统计年刊和澳门统计年鉴数据,运用空间自相关分析法、柯布-道格拉斯生产函数和空间回归等方法,研究2000—2015年粤港澳大湾区人口老龄化的时空特征及其经济效应,结果表明：① 粤港澳大湾区人口老龄化进程慢于广东省,更慢于全国,但于2015年已进入老年型I期。② 粤港澳大湾区老龄化呈动态演变特征,空间上以香港和江门为起点,经西北向北扩散的“C”型分布模式,高收入城市以澳门和香港为起点向北扩散,最终形成中心-外围的空间分布格局。③ 粤港澳大湾区人口老龄化对经济增长具有负向影响,老龄人口增加1%,人均GDP降低3%。人均固定资本投入和人均人力资本投入有正的经济效应,人均人力资本投入带来的正向效应要大于人均固定资本投入。鉴于此,粤、港、澳三地应建立起协同治理模式,构建跨境的养老合作机制;促进产业结构升级,充分利用人力资本促进技术创新,并正确评估不同阶段人口老龄化对经济增长的影响,妥善处理好人口老龄化与经济之间的关系至关重要。     

劳动力区际流动及其人力资本再分配效应——基于技能互补性假说的理论与实证分析

由于劳动力的异质性,不同技能劳动力之间的合作和互补可以获得递增收益。客观存在的技能互补性导致技能劳动力迁入与迁入地技能劳动力需求之间的正反馈关系,从而引发了劳动力区际流动与人力资本地区集中之间的累积循环。该文基于Giannetti提出的技能互补性假说,从一个新的角度对劳动力区际流动的动因进行理论与实证分析,并揭示该假说的区域经济学含义。     

Access to fisheries in the maritime frontier of Palawan Province,Philippines

Globally, capital investments are intensifying extraction and contestation over resources in frontier spaces, yet most discussion has focused on terrestrial frontiers. This paper shifts this focus to bring a scaled political ecology approach to examine the access dynamics of fisheries trade in the maritime frontier of Palawan province, the Philippines. We adapt the linked concepts of access and exclusion to highlight how access dynamics unfold at multiple scales. At the local scale, social relations of class and ethnicity serve as important markers of difference that inform control over access to fisheries resources. At the regional scale, we show how engagement in fisheries trade is also shaped by broader historical and geographical contexts of migration and land use change. Access dynamics unfold at multiple inter‐related scales to heavily influence the differentiated social outcomes of expanded fisheries trade.     

国际直接投资变化趋势及对我国引资的思考

国际资本投资特别是对外直接投资的迅速增长，无论是对资本输出国还是对资本吸纳国的经济和社会发展都产生了深刻的影响。以美国为首的发达国家无论是在资本输出还是资本流入中一直都占据重要地位，以新兴市场国家为代表的发展中国家的国际资本投资存在逐渐加强的趋势。从国际资本投资的行业分布特征来看，主要集中在制造业和金融、保险、房地产业，特别是金融、保险和房地产业所占比重持续上升。改革开放以来，外商投资已经成为引发我国经济发展深刻变化的重要因素，外商投资企业成为我国国民经济中的重要组成部分。要进一步抓对全球经济一体化的机会，制定相应的发展战略，促进我国经济的发展。     

北京企业对河北直接投资的时空动态特征及影响因素

随着京津冀协同发展战略的提出,北京非首都功能疏解与产业转移得到越来越多的关注。论文基于2010—2015年北京企业对河北亿元以上项目的投资数据,分析历年投资规模、行业特征和区位特征及变化,进一步利用条件Logit回归模型,分别探究北京全行业、制造业、服务业企业对河北投资区位的影响因素。研究发现：① 2010—2015年,北京企业对河北的投资规模大幅提升,制造业投资占比有所下降,服务业投资占比显著提高,且投资行业类型多样化,呈现升级趋势,对一般性产业的疏解已初步取得成效。② 北京企业对河北各地级市投资额分布的层级分化明显,且在各地级市的市区、县域均有分布,呈现广域散布的特征。③ 2010—2015年,北京企业对河北各地级市的投资区位较为集中,但略趋分散,投资份额有从唐山、承德、廊坊向保定、邯郸转移的趋势,基本形成以唐山、石家庄、保定、张家口为核心承载地的投资格局。④ 产业基础、时间距离、政策环境、创新能力是企业投资区位选择的重要影响因素,但存在明显的行业异质性特征。制造业受时间距离、劳动力成本、政策环境的影响,容易形成企业投资的“区位锁定”和“行业锁定”;服务业较高的企业经济效益克服了劳动力成本的影响,高素质人才更能吸引服务业企业投资。     

中国交通运输投资及其经济溢出效应时空演化——1997-2013年省级面板的实证

交通运输投资是区域规划和政策制定的重要内容,但交通运输投资对促进经济增长的时空效应仍存在较大争议。在总结交通成本、交通投资与经济增长关系的基础上,建立1997-2013年省级尺度的交通运输投资、劳动力和经济总量的面板模型,综合评估交通投资对经济增长的多尺度时空间效应。研究发现：① 全国层面上看,交通投资对经济增长具有显著的引导效应,其弹性系数为11.4%,但在不同地区这一弹性系数存在显著差异。总体上,在城市化水平和社会基础较好的东部和东北地区,交通运输投资对社会经济增长的作用更加明显。② 在时间尺度上,随着中国城市化水平的不断扩大,交通投资对经济增长的作用也逐渐增强。③ 在考虑交通投资和经济总量时间滞后性之后,在全国层面上,当期交通投资和前期交通运输投资对经济的增长作用程度大致相同,但相对中西部地区而言,东部地区当期交通投资对经济增长作用更加显著。考虑到交通运输投资的这种时空差异,应根据不同地区不同发展阶段的特点,采取谨慎地投资策略以强化对经济增长的引导作用。     

旅游投资决定机制及其时空响应——以张家界为例

以张家界为例,分析了旅游投资决定机制的演变;运用旅游产业响应强度模型,分析武陵源区对旅游投资的时间响应特征,并阐述了在政府和市场作用下张家界旅游产业的空间响应和重构。结果显示：① 从投资决定机制演变看,投资制度安排决定了张家界旅游发展不同时期的投资主体差异,并随制度的演变,凸显了阶段性旅游投资分工格局。② 从时间响应看,在出现期,响应系数由1989年的0.1282增加到1992年的0.1341;在生成期,由1993年的0.1631提高到1999年的0.8511;在发展期,再从2000年的0.8767提高到2012年的1.1214,反映出旅游投资力度的强弱直接影响响应系数的大小。③ 从空间响应看,在政府、世界遗产管理制度和市场共同作用下,形成了以武陵源和天门山两个5A级景区为核心的空间格局,以及“景区游,城区住”的产业布局;经过重构后,旅游服务密度的排序为：桑植县<慈利县<永定区<武陵源区。     

The persistent water problems of Lima,Peru: Neoliberalism,institutional failures and social inequalities

The contingent relation between water governance and nature neoliberalization has defined most interventions in the water sector around the world in recent years. In the case of the Peruvian capital Lima, the provision of water and sanitation services in the last two decades has been the object of investments and institutional reforms strongly influenced by economic neoliberalism. This essay examines the evolution of these neoliberalizing tendencies, noting the internal disputes, necessary adjustments and underlying problems of water sufficiency in the metropolitan region. The empirical results suggest that, rather than a straightforward process, the neoliberalization of water in Lima has advanced according to political opportunities and technico‐operational constraints. The water reforms implemented in the 1990s – when the goal of privatization met political opposition – can be contrasted with the more recent phase in the 2000s, when more flexible mechanisms, such as public‐private partnerships, have facilitated public acceptance. Despite the renovation of the infrastructure, the modernization of the water sector has failed to address persistent water management problems, namely the discriminatory treatment of low income residents, the chaotic expansion of the metropolitan area and the risk of future water shortages.     

TRACKING THE BABY BOOM,THE BABY BUST,AND THE ECHO GENERATIONS: HOW AGE COMPOSITION REGULATES US MIGRATION*

US regional and state migration data from the 1940s–80s, when members of the baby boom generation aged into their years of peak labor force mobility, suggest ways in which changing age composition regulates geographical mobility and interregional migration. Labor supply pressure plays a key role in the dynamics of the national migration system. A “delayed mobility” effect in the 1980s similar to the delayed fertility of the baby boom cohorts appears to be a result of the depressed rates of mobility experienced by members of this generation when they flooded regional labor markets with record numbers of entrants in the 1970s. Recent temporal shifts in age-specific volumes of interregional migration help predict the future pace of migration based upon the projected age distribution of the nation.     

Foreign Direct Investment in the Czech Republic

This paper evaluates foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Czech Republic and its regional development consequences after the collapse of state socialism. Two types of FDIs are identified: cross border export-oriented investments and market capture investments. The cross border export-oriented investments exploit low cost labor in the service of external markets and are typically concentrated in peripheral areas, mostly along the former West German border. This type of FDI is not likely to contribute to durable regional economies. The market capture investments involve both servicing the Czech market and integrating activities within a larger, multinational corporate network. This type of investment may create more durable sources of regional economic activity. A case study of the Volkswagen/Skoda joint venture is used to examine market capture investments and their consequences for regional development. This paper is based on interviews with plant managers and trade union leaders in companies with foreign investment, governmental officials at the various ministries and state agencies dealing with FDI, and information and data from the secondary sources.