The exceptional Alpine south foehn event of 14–16 November 2002: a case study

Summary This study examines the exceptional Alpine south foehn event of 14–16 November 2002 using routine observations and high-resolution numerical simulations. Besides its long duration and an extremely high temperature level related to warm-air advection from the northern Sahara, this foehn event exhibited an unusual spatial structure of the low-level wind and temperature field. Whereas the foehn was largely restricted to the first half of 14 November in the western part of the Alps (Switzerland), it extended over the full period in the inner-Alpine valleys in the eastern Alps. The duration and intensity of the foehn also tended to decrease from the Alpine crest towards the northern rim of the Alps. Most surprisingly, continuous foehn even occurred on the windward side of the Alpine crest, namely in a basin located in the southeastern Alps. The distribution of the orographic precipitation associated with the foehn case was unusual as well. In Switzerland, intense precipitation was not restricted to the windward (southern) side of the Alps but extended to the northern side of the Alpine crest, particularly on 16 November. The results indicate that the spatio-temporal distribution of the foehn in the northern Alps was related to the fact that the western Alps were within a synoptic-scale transition zone between extremely warm air advected from the south and colder air lying over western Europe. The colder air was advected around the western Alps whereas extremely warm air descended from the Alpine crest farther east. Moreover, a small cyclone formed on 14 November north of the Alps and generated a shallow cold front propagating eastward along the northern Alps. Thus, the tendency towards foehn decreased from west to east and from the Alpine crest towards the north. The occurrence of foehn on the windward side of the Alpine crest was made possible by the extreme strength of the large-scale southerly flow, combined with the fact that the upstream precipitation field did not reach the southeastern edge of the Alps. Finally, the pronounced spillover of precipitation to the northern side in the Swiss part of the Alps appears to be related to the colder air present north of the crest. This prevented the formation of orographic gravity waves and downslope air motion, which usually leads to a rapid evaporation of the precipitation on the lee side of the Alpine crest.     

Mesoscale diagnostics of prefrontal and frontal precipitation in the Southeast Alps during MAP IOP 5

Summary In terms of heavy precipitation, the MAP IOP 5 was a two-phase event. During the first phase – on 3 October 1999 – there was strong precipitation in the Lago Maggiore MAP target area, while the prefrontal precipitation was mainly limited to the mountain ranges of the MAP mission area in the Julian and the Karnic Alps involving a series of thunderstorms developing continuously for about 15 hours and contributing most to precipitation levels. During the second phase – on 4 October – the main precipitation was limited to the Julian and the Karnic Alps where a frontal passage was noted by a squall line moving from Veneto region towards the east, accompanied by a strong SW upper-level jet. At the same time, a strong low-level cold flow invaded the region to the north of Adriatic Sea from the east as a significant amount of cold air moving ageostrophically around the eastern edge of the Alps was arriving in the area. To study MAP IOP 5 in detail, we describe the development for mesoscale features of the events radar images, time-height cross-sections and estimates of Convective Available Poteintial Energy (CAPE) based on radio-sounding data, and how surface-measured precipitation offers some smaller scale information. Surface potential temperature and winds are also studied. Very large precipitation accumulation gradients are diagnosed (150mm per day/25km in S–N direction) and time distributions of hourly precipitation shows completely diverse regimes in the Friuli plain and in the Alps with peak intensities in the Julian Alps. The mesometeorological mechanisms for high precipitation rate in the SE Alps are diagnosed and some characteristics of the squall line are discussed.     

Snow climate baseline conditions and trends in Croatia relevant to winter tourism

The presence of snow along a portion of the Croatian highlands has enabled the development of winter tourism that is primarily oriented toward snow-related activities. Snow is more abundant and stays on the ground longer in the mountainous district of Gorski kotar (south eastern edge of the Alps) and on Mount Velebit (Dinaric Alps), which have elevations of up to 1,600?m and are close to the Adriatic coast than over the inland hilly region of north western Croatia where the summits are not more than approximately 1,000?m high. Basic information about the snow conditions at these locations was gathered for this study, including the annual cycle and probabilities for various snow parameters at different altitudes. As requested by the Croatian Ski Association, the relation between the air temperature and the relative humidity was investigated to determine the feasibility of artificial snowmaking. The snow parameters are highly correlated to air temperature, surface air pressure and precipitation, with certain differences occurring as a result of the altitude. Since the beginning of the second half of the twentieth century, winter warming and a significant increase in the mean air pressure (more anticyclonic situations) have been detected at all sites. Winter precipitation totals decreased at medium altitudes and increased at the summit of Mount Velebit, but these trends were not significant. The frequency of precipitation days and of snowfall decreased whereas an increasing fraction of the precipitation days at high altitudes involved solid precipitation. In contrast, a decreasing fraction of the precipitation days at medium altitudes involved solid precipitation, probably because of the different warming intensities at different altitudes. The mean daily snow depth and the duration of snow cover both slightly decreased at medium altitudes whereas the snow cover duration slightly increased at the mountainous summit of Mount Velebit.     

Diurnal precipitation cycle in Austria

A back-trajectory clustering method was developed to identify synoptic patterns associated with heavy precipitation in Austria. Extending this work from daily precipitation sums to accumulation intervals from 12 to 48 hours, an unexpected problem was encountered related to the observation schedule of data. To modify available data to our specific needs, evening precipitation falling between 19 and 21 LT (Local Time) was studied. Hourly precipitation data for the period of 1950 to 2005 from 132 weather stations over Austria were used. It was found that the evening precipitation fraction has its maxima in the central Alps in all seasons, except in autumn when maxima shift more towards the south of the Alps. These results encouraged us to analyse the variation of diurnal precipitation for different seasons in Austria as well. A total of 119 stations with sixteen years (1990?C2005) of data were used for this purpose. Mean hourly precipitation values were calculated, which were then normalised, smoothed and were finally clustered to find regions with homogeneous diurnal cycles. The diurnal cycles of precipitation of the centres exhibit systematic patterns and seasonal cycles, reflecting intensity and timing of convective activity over these regions. The winter season is relatively dry and summer is associated with the highest precipitation. The areas inside the Alps receive higher amplitudes of precipitation in summer. Interesting features such as bimodal distributions, nocturnal maxima and early morning maxima were also observed in many regions.     

Cutoff low systems and their relevance to large-scale extreme precipitation in the European Alps

In this paper, we attempt to highlight the relevance of cutoff low systems (CoLs) to large-scale heavy precipitation events within the Alpine region which often lead to catastrophic flooding. The main results of this study are (1) a detailed climatology (1971–1999) of CoLs for the European region, (2) contribution of CoLs to extreme precipitation events in the European Alpine region, (3) identification of regions within the European Alps most affected by extreme precipitation caused by CoLs, and (4) identification of regions where presence of CoLs is related to extreme precipitation in the Alpine region. The findings of this paper suggest that CoLs have a significant correlation with extreme precipitation events and strongly influence the climate of the Alpine region. The total contribution of CoLs to large-scale heavy precipitation events ranges between 20 and 95 % and is most pronounced in the northern and eastern parts of the Alps. More than 80 % of the events occur in the summer season. The area around the Alps and West of Spain (over the Atlantic Ocean) is the most affected region. The location of the center of CoLs that affect the Alpine region most occur on the northern and southern sides of the Alpine ridge.     

Snow pack in the Swiss Alps under changing climatic conditions: an empirical approach for climate impacts studies

Summary ?In many instances, snow cover and duration are a major controlling factor on a range of environmental systems in mountain regions. When assessing the impacts of climatic change on mountain ecosystems and river basins whose origin lie in the Alps, one of the key controls on such systems will reside in changes in snow amount and duration. At present, regional climate models or statistical downscaling techniques, which are the principal methods applied to the derivation of climatic variables in a future, changing climate, do not provide adequate information at the scales required for investigations in which snow is playing a major role. A study has thus been undertaken on the behavior of snow in the Swiss Alps, in particular the duration of the seasonal snow-pack, on the basis of observational data from a number of Swiss climatological stations. It is seen that there is a distinct link between snow-cover duration and height (i.e., temperature), and that this link has a specific “signature” according to the type of winter. Milder winters are associated with higher precipitation levels than colder winters, but with more solid precipitation at elevations exceeding 1,700–2,000 m above sea-level, and more liquid precipitation below. These results can be combined within a single diagram, linking winter minimum temperature, winter precipitation, and snow-cover duration. The resulting contour surfaces can then be used to assess the manner in which the length of the snow-season may change according to specified shifts in temperature and precipitation. While the technique is clearly empirical, it can be combined with regional climate model information to provide a useful estimate of the length of the snow season with snow cover, for various climate-impacts studies. Received May 14, 2002; revised August 12, 2002; accepted August 17, 2002     

Reconstruction and analysis of two long-term precipitation time series: Alpe Devero and Domodossola (Italian Western Alps)

With this study, we analyzed two long-term precipitation time series recorded at Alpe Devero and Domodossola (Italian Western Alps) for two periods (1916–2010 and 1872–2010, respectively). The aims of the study were: to create the first precipitation time series covering more than 50?years for Alpe Devero, to extend and update the precipitation time series for Domodossola, to detect changes by means of trend analysis on the precipitation time series. After an accurate analysis of the metadata and the measurements recorded at each station, a trend analysis was performed on both datasets. The results showed a statistically significant decline in winter, summer, and annual precipitation at Alpe Devero and a nonsignificant decrease in seasonal and annual precipitation at Domodossola. Covering more than 90?years, the long-term precipitation time series at Alpe Devero and Domodossola represent unique data sets for this sector of Italian Western Alps. Continuing updating of the data could provide a useful resource for climate change studies in this area and, within a wider perspective, in Alpine regions.     

Added value of convection permitting seasonal simulations

In this study the added value of a ensemble of convection permitting climate simulations (CPCSs) compared to coarser gridded simulations is investigated. The ensemble consists of three non hydrostatic regional climate models providing five simulations with ~10 and ~3 km (CPCS) horizontal grid spacing each. The simulated temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and global radiation fields are evaluated within two seasons (JJA 2007 and DJF 2007–2008) in the eastern part of the European Alps. Spatial variability, diurnal cycles, temporal correlations, and distributions with focus on extreme events are analyzed and specific methods (FSS and SAL) are used for in-depth analysis of precipitation fields. The most important added value of CPCSs are found in the diurnal cycle improved timing of summer convective precipitation, the intensity of most extreme precipitation, and the size and shape of precipitation objects. These improvements are not caused by the higher resolved orography but by the explicit treatment of deep convection and the more realistic model dynamics. In contrary improvements in summer temperature fields can be fully attributed to the higher resolved orography. Generally, added value of CPCSs is predominantly found in summer, in complex terrain, on small spatial and temporal scales, and for high precipitation intensities.     

Global climate change and variability and its influence on Alpine climate — concepts and observations

Summary The paper discusses annual to decadal climate variability and change in the European Alps by utilizing the procedure of synoptic downscaling, i.e. it investigates the influence of global to continental scale synoptic structures and processes on the regional climate of the Alps. The European Alps lie to the southeast and under the right exit zone of the southwest-northeast oriented axis of the polar front jet over the North Atlantic ocean, in a transition zone between the Azores high and Icelandic low, between oceanic and continental and between Mediterranean and North Atlantic climates. Together with complex topographically induced phenomena like lee cyclogenesis, orographic precipitation, strong downslope winds and thermotopographical circulation systems, this transitional position makes climate studies in the Alps even more interesting. Only a minor correlation can be observed between global climate variability and Alpine climate. In contrast, the Alpine climate is strongly related to processes over the North Atlantic ocean and its sea ice system (e.g. it has a high correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the dynamics and position of the Icelandic low), an area with a rather low climate prediction potential.Since the early 1970's (or just after the Great Salinity Anomaly in the North Atlantic Ocean) the intensification of the wintertime westerly jet over the North Atlantic area led to a noticeable northwest-southeast mass transport in the exit area of the jet over Central Europe, leading to pressure and temperature rises and an increase in the amount of precipitation. There is a question over whether this phenomenon is a consequence of natural climate variability or the beginning of an anthropogenic climate change.With 16 Figures     

Climatological aspects of extreme precipitation in Europe, related to mid-latitude cyclonic systems

Climatic aspects of extreme European precipitation are studied. Daily pluviometric data from 280 stations across Europe, covering the period from 1958 to 2000, are used. First, the criteria for extreme precipitation cases and episodes are communicated using threshold and spatial definitions. The cases and episodes meeting these criteria are grouped according to their area of appearance. Most of them are located in three major areas: Greece, the Alps, and the Iberian Peninsula. The existence of trends in the annual and seasonal time series of these extreme events is examined. Decreasing trends are found in most of the cases, for Greece, the Iberian Peninsula, and Europe, as a whole. The Alps present a different behavior, with no trend at all in the southern part, and a possible increasing trend in the northern part. Finally, the positive impact of altitude in the frequency of occurrence of extreme precipitation episodes in Europe is discussed.     

On the effect of a foehn on cold fronts in the vicinity of the Alps

The present note discusses physical mechanisms which may contribute to cold air channelling close to the Alps. This involves the modification of the prefrontal air by the warm foehn air and of the postfrontal air by blocking effects resulting in an increase in precipitation. Additionally the influence of a sloping surface in the vicinity of the orography is considered. The problems are discussed in term of a north-south-oriented cold front behaving as an atmospheric gravity current propagating along the east-west oriented Alps.     

Evidence of climate change within the Adamello Glacier of Italy

We analyze a daily series of rainfall, snowfall, air temperature, and snow water equivalent at fixed dates from 40 high-altitude stations on the Adamello Glacier area (Italian Alps), for the period 1965–2007. Purposes of the study are (1) to investigate significant variation in time, (2) to evaluate effect of temperature changes on cryospheric water cycle, and (3) to evaluate underlying climate patterns and the most significant variables for climate change studies. We detect the presence of a trend using linear regression, moving window average and Mann Kendall test. Linear dependence of water related variables on temperatures is assessed. We find substantially unchanged atmospheric water input along with increasing temperature and rainfall, decreasing snowfall and snow water equivalent at thaw, and shortening of snow cover extent and duration. We carry out a principal components analysis which highlights patterns of precipitation distribution resulting from local temperature and external forcing. A set of the most representative variables for climate and glacier studies is then assessed. A comparison with three nearby Southern Alpine glacierized areas in Italy and Switzerland shows substantial agreement. In spite of the relative shortness of the series, the results here are of interest and can be used as a benchmark for climate change impact assessment for the Adamello Glacier area and southern Alps.     

Fading temperature sensitivity of Alpine tree growth at its Mediterranean margin and associated effects on large-scale climate reconstructions

A millennium-long tree-ring width chronology of living and dead larch (Larix decidua Mill.) specimens from the Maritime French Alps was introduced 35?years ago. This record has been included in various large-scale temperature reconstructions, though recent analyses revealed only weak associations with regional summer temperatures. Calibration and verification trials against instrumental measurements were, however, limited by the original record’s early ending in 1974. Here we introduce an update of this widely considered chronology until 2007 and back into medieval times. A total of 297 new larch samples from high-elevation settings in the southern French Alps were included, and the combined 398 measurement series allowed effects of tree-ring detrending and chronology development to be explored. Comparisons with meteorological temperature, precipitation and drought indices revealed weak and temporally inconsistent climate sensitivity. To further place these local findings in a biogeographic context, we used >3,000 larch trees from 61 locations across the Alpine arc. This unique network approach confirmed fading temperature sensitivity with decreasing latitude, and thus questioned the overall reliability of ring width-based temperature reconstructions in the Mediterranean region. Our results further emphasize the pending need to develop chronologies from maximum latewood densities and stable isotope ratios across the lower latitudes, and to carefully evaluate ecological site conditions and methodological data restrictions prior to compiling local data into global networks.     

Regional climate simulations for the European Alpine Region��sensitivity of precipitation to large-scale flow conditions of driving input data

The MM5 modelling system has been used to perform regional climate simulations over Western Europe on a 45-km grid for the years 1971 to 2000. We focus our analysis on the impact of the driving input data on simulated precipitation in the Alpine area. Using ERA40 reanalysis data, the MM5 climatology of precipitation compares reasonably well with an observational climatology for the Alpine region. Switching to an ECHAM5 climate simulation as driving data induces excessive overprediction by up to 80% in the colder seasons there, primarily over the Alpine slopes. The large-scale flow provided by the global datasets revealed moderate differences indicating an increased number of low-pressure systems travelling from the Atlantic into the Alpine region for ECHAM5 compared with ERA40. Mean seasonal 700-hPa wind speeds correspondingly showed higher values for the ECHAM5 driven simulation in the central Alps. Partitioning three-hourly 700-hPa winds according to direction and speed in the central Alps specifically revealed a distinct shift to stronger westerly and north-westerly winds. Furthermore, aggregating three-hourly rainfall amounts to the same wind direction and wind speed intervals as for the wind statistics revealed strongly intensified precipitation due to the overly intense westerly winds, implying too intense orographic precipitation enhancement.     

Does global warming favour the occurrence of extreme floods in European Alps? First evidences from a NW Alps proglacial lake sediment record

Flood hazard is expected to increase in the context of global warming. However, long time-series of climate and gauge data at high-elevation are too sparse to assess reliably the rate of recurrence of such events in mountain areas. Here paleolimnological techniques were used to assess the evolution of frequency and magnitude of flash flood events in the North-western European Alps since the Little Ice Age (LIA). The aim was to document a possible effect of the post-19^th century global warming on torrential floods frequency and magnitude. Altogether 56 flood deposits were detected from grain size and geochemical measurements performed on gravity cores taken in the proglacial Lake Blanc (2170?m?a.s.l., Belledonne Massif, NW French Alps). The age model relies on radiometric dating (¹³⁷Cs and ²⁴¹Am), historic lead contamination and the correlation of major flood- and earthquake-triggered deposits, with recognized occurrences in historical written archives. The resulting flood calendar spans the last ca 270?years (AD 1740–AD 2007). The magnitude of flood events was inferred from the accumulated sediment mass per flood event and compared with reconstructed or homogenized datasets of precipitation, temperature and glacier variations. Whereas the decennial flood frequency seems to be independent of seasonal precipitation, a relationship with summer temperature fluctuations can be observed at decadal timescales. Most of the extreme flood events took place since the beginning of the 20^th century with the strongest occurring in 2005. Our record thus suggests climate warming is favouring the occurrence of high magnitude torrential flood events in high-altitude catchments.     

Sensitivity Analysis of Snow Cover to Climate Change Scenarios and Their Impact on Plant Habitats in Alpine Terrain

In high altitude areas snow cover duration largely determines the length of the growing season of the vegetation. A sensitivity study of snow cover to various scenarios of temperature and precipitation has been conducted to assess how snow cover and vegetation may respond for a very localized area of the high Swiss Alps (2050–2500 m above sea level). A surface energy balance model has been upgraded to compute snow depth and duration, taking into account solar radiation geometry over complex topography. Plant habitat zones have been defined and 23 species, whose photoperiodic preferences were documented in an earlier study, were grouped into each zone. The sensitivity of snowmelt to a change in mean, minimum and maximum temperature alone and a change in mean temperature combined with a precipitation change of +10% in winter and −10% in summer is investigated. A seasonal increase in the mean temperature of 3 to 5 K reduces snow cover depth and duration by more than a month on average. Snow melts two months earlier in the rock habitat zone with the mean temperature scenario than under current climate conditions. This allows the species in this habitat to flower earlier in a warmer climate, but not all plants are able to adapt to such changes.     

Mountain–valley precipitation differences in the northern Alps: an exemplary high-resolution modeling study

This paper investigates the dependence on environmental conditions of altitudinal precipitation differences in the northern Alps, based on high-resolution numerical simulations with the MM5 model for a selected region in the Bavarian Alps (Zugspitze mountain and surrounding valley stations). Three exemplary precipitation events representing climatological regimes with different orographic enhancement characteristics are selected. After validating the MM5 precipitation fields against the available surface observations, the model results are used to analyse the interactions of atmospheric dynamics and cloud microphysics with the local orography. The first two cases (19–22 March 1997, 05–09 February 1999) are characterized by a strong northwesterly or northerly flow, associated with large precipitation differences between the mountain and the surrounding valley stations. For these cases, the model results indicate a dominance of the classical seeder–feeder mechanism, with strong orographic lifting generating dense orographic clouds over each individual mountain ridge, which in turn intensify precipitation. The related surface precipitation maxima can be found near the mountain peaks or somewhat in the lee due to hydrometeor drifting. The third case (05–07 December 1992) represents conditions with relatively small (i.e. below climatological average) precipitation differences between the Zugspitze and the surrounding valley stations. For this event, the model results indicate that relatively weak ambient winds at and below Alpine crest level (700 hPa) were primarily responsible for the lack of substantial precipitation enhancement. Precipitation was nevertheless moderately intense because of strong frontal lifting at higher levels. In all three cases, the agreement between simulated and observed precipitation patterns is so high that there is good reason to expect that mountain–valley precipitation differences will be quantitatively predictable for nonconvective events once a sufficiently high model resolution is computationally affordable.     

Validation of climate-mode MM5-simulations for the European Alpine Region

Climate mode simulations using MM5 have been conducted over Western Europe on a 45-km grid driven by ECMWF’s ERA40 reanalysis data. We focus our validation on the Alpine region and the Alpine foreland. A reference experiment comprising the years of 1991 to 2000 shows reasonable correspondence to station measurements and a gridded precipitation climatology of the Alps. Also, the mean monthly diurnal cycle of near-surface temperature and dew point temperature verified in the Alpine foreland compares quite well to station data showing some minor discrepancies mainly in the afternoon that seem to be common to regional models. Furthermore, a set of sensitivity experiments was conducted for the years of 1996 to 1999. This set was spanned on the one hand by three convection schemes to get an estimate of the possible range of simulated precipitation amounts inherent to the MM5-system. On the other hand, two different formulations of the horizontal numerical diffusion were investigated with respect to their influence on simulated precipitation in mountainous terrain. It was found that the impact of the formulation of numerical diffusion is similarly large as the sensitivity to the convection scheme, with computing diffusion along the terrain-following coordinate surfaces being clearly worse than computing it in a truly horizontal manner.     

VARIATIONS OF SNOW DEPTH AND DURATION IN THE SWISS ALPS OVER THE LAST 50 YEARS: LINKS TO CHANGES IN LARGE-SCALE CLIMATIC FORCINGS

A study of snow statistics over the past 50 years at several climatological stations in the Swiss Alps has highlighted periods in which snow was either abundant or not. Periods with relative low snow amounts and duration are closely linked to the presence of persistent high surface pressure fields over the Alpine region during late Fall and in Winter. These high pressure episodes are accompanied by large positive temperature anomalies and low precipitation, both of which are unfavorable for snow accumulation during the Winter. The fluctuations of seasonal to annual pressure in the Alpine region is strongly correlated with anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation index, which is a measure of the strength of the westerly flow over the Atlantic. This implies that large-scale forcing, and not local or regional factors, plays a dominant role in controling the timing and amount of snow in the Alps, as evidenced by the abundance or dearth of snow over several consecutive years. Furthermore, since the mid-1980s, the length of the snow season and snow amount have substantially decreased, as a result of pressure fields over the Alps which have been far higher and more persistent than at any other time this century. A detailed analysis of a number of additional Alpine stations for the last 15 years shows that the sensitivity of the snow-pack to climatic fluctuations diminishes above 1750 m. In the current debate on anthropogenically-induced climatic change, this altitude is consistent with other studies and estimates of snow-pack sensitivity to past and projected future global warming.     

Climate Change Estimates of Summer Temperature and Precipitation in the Alpine Region

Summary Climatic changes of summer temperature and precipitation in the greater Alpine region are assessed by using statistical-dynamical downscaling. The downscaling procedure is applied to two 30-year periods (1971–2000 and 2071–2100, summer months only) taken from the results of a transient coupled ocean/atmosphere climate scenario simulation with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The downscaling results for the present-day climate are compared with observations. The estimated regional climate change during the next 100 years shows a general warming. The mean summer temperatures increase by 3 to 5 Kelvin. The most intense climatic warming is predicted in the western parts of the Alps. The amount of summer precipitation decreases in most parts of central Europe by more than 20 percent. Increasing precipitation is simulated only over the Adriatic area and parts of eastern central Europe. The results are compared with observed climate trends for the last decades and results of other regional climate change estimations. The observed trends and the majority of the simulated trends (including ours) have a number of common features. However, there are also climate change estimates of other groups which completely contradict our results. Received April 8, 1999 Revised November 16, 1999