首都圈地区前兆台网映震能力的强化方案研究

本文以首都圈地区现有前兆台网的映震能力评价为基础，提出了前兆台网强化的原则与方法。强化的原则是，以近期地震危险性研究成果为依据，以捕捉源兆信息为目标，以捕捉短临异常信息为重点。强化的途径是，对现有布局作适当的调整与优化，布设电磁波与断层土壤气为主的前兆台网，建设地下流体综合观测站与构筑地震前兆的立体化观测系统。     

山西地震前兆台网监测能力的分析

地震观测台网前兆监测能力是地震综合分析预报的基础,本文通过对影响监测能力的因素进行了分析,建立了监测能力函数,并把山西及邻近地区分为1400个小区进行了扫描计算,得出了对于各级地震监测能力的等级范围。     

河南省地震前兆台网监测能力评定

根据河南省及其邻省地震前兆专业台站的分布情况,利用数模型F＝exp[-b(b-k)/n],以0．5°×0．5°作为单位区域,对河南省16万km^2区域内,分别计算出对5．0－6．5级地震及6．5级以上地震的监测能力图,并提出改进提高地震监测能力的具体措施。     

青藏高原北部地区前兆台网分布及前兆监测能力

收集了青藏高原北部地区流体、形变、电磁三大学科90个定点前兆观测台项和69个跨断层流动测量场地的基础资料,提出前兆反映能力的概念和计算其空间分布的方法,对该区前兆观测台网的分布、前兆反映能力和监测能力进行了分析。     

首都圈地磁无量纲参数地震前兆信息研究

为了满足地磁无量纲参数地震短期预报及多综合预报的需要,分析研究了地磁无量纲参数Ｂｉｊ方法,取得了１９９６年１０月６日唐山级地震Ｂｉｊ异常短期（三个月）追踪图象。依据Ｂｉｊ异常（测点数量、幅度、空间分布的大小和方向）时空演化过程和演变特征,可进行地震短期预测追踪的尝试。     

首都圈地区前兆台址地质条件对其映震能力影响的统计分析

本文系统收集了首都圈地区38个形变类观测台、29个地下水类观测井与15个电磁类观测台的地质—水文地质条件,并根据1976—1989年间5个中强地震前的58个台项的异常,逐项统计分析了台址地质—水文地质条件对其映震能力的影响。得到的认识是,影响地形变类台站映震能力的主要地质条件是构造单元、邻近断裂的走向、距离、活动时代与台基地层岩性;影响地下水类观测井映震能力的主要条件是构造单元、邻近断裂的走向、距离、部位、井深、含水层的地层岩性与地下水类型;影响地电磁类台站映震能力的主要条件是构造单元、新生界盖层的结构与厚度、表土岩性、基底岩性与壳内高导层顶面埋深等。     

首都圈地震监测预报的某些模糊数学方法

本文把模糊数学中的模糊模式识别的直接方法、模糊聚类分析方法、模糊信息检索方法和新近提出的模糊分维方法应用到以地震活动性和地震前兆为基础的首都圈地震监测预报当中,分析研究了发生在这一地区的两次大地震,即1976年唐山7.8级和1989年大同6.1级地震前用模糊数学方法识别出的地震学前兆和非地震学前兆,并对这一地区大地震的长期和中短期模糊预报方法与途径进行了简要的讨论。     

京津冀地区地震台网监测能力分析

根据京津冀地区地震台网的分布和平均地脉动噪声估算了该地区地震台网的监测范围,又根据中国地震台网中心产出的地震目录描绘了京津冀地区实际地震监测范围,发现北京市与河北省在2条地震带上应补充足够的地震台站,以降低对地震带附近地震监测的下限,从而有利于京津冀地区的地震监测与预测。     

Aspects regarding the use of the INFREP network for identifying possible seismic precursors

In the last decades, one of the main research directions in identifying seismic precursors involved monitoring VLF (Very Low Frequency) and LF (Low Frequency) radio waves and analysing their propagation characteristics. Essentially this method consists of monitoring different available VLF and LF transmitters from long distance reception points. The received signal has two major components: the ground wave and the sky wave, where the sky wave propagates by reflection on the lower layers of the ionosphere. It is assumed that before and during major earthquakes, unusual changes may occur in the lower layers of the ionosphere, such as the modification of the charged particles number density and the altitude of the reflection zone. Therefore, these unusual changes in the ionosphere may generate unusual variations in the received signal level.The International Network for Frontier Research on Earthquake Precursors (INFREP) was developed starting with 2009 and consists of several dedicated VLF and LF radio receivers used for monitoring various radio transmitters located throughout Europe. The receivers’ locations were chosen so that the propagation path from these VLF/LF stations would pass over high seismicity regions while others were chosen to obtain different control paths.The monitoring receivers are capable of continuously measuring the received signal amplitude from the VLF/LF stations of interest. The recorded data is then stored and sent to an INFREP database, which is available on the Internet for scientific researchers. By processing and analysing VLF and LF data samples, collected at different reception points and at different periods of the year, one may be able to identify some distinct patterns in the envelope of the received signal level over time. Significant deviations from these patterns may have local causes such as the electromagnetic pollution at the monitoring point, regional causes like existing electrical storms over the propagation path or even global causes generated by high-intensity solar flares. As a consequence, classifying these perturbations and minimizing them (when possible) would represent an important step towards identifying significant pattern deviations caused by seismic activities.Taken into consideration some of the issues mentioned above, this paper intends to present some aspects meant to improve the overall performance of the existing INFREP network. The signal-to-noise ratio improvement of the monitoring receiver may be achieved by relocating the antenna (or even the entire monitoring system if possible) in areas with less electromagnetic pollution within the VLF and LF bands. Other solution may involve replacing the existing electric “whip” antennas with magnetic loop antennas.Regarding the measuring method, long-term averaging of the received signal to reduce the electromagnetic noise should be carefully applied. If the averaging time is too long, there is a risk that, during a seismic event, the details of the received signal envelope would be lost. Moreover, this may reduce the possibility of making correlations between the monitored stations and INFREP receivers in case of sudden ERP (Effective Radiated Power) variations of the VLF/LF stations. For the same reason, the time synchronization of the recorded data using (for instance) GPS technology is highly recommended.Other aspects related to the overall performance improvement of the INFREP network consist of monitoring other VLF/LF stations such as the Krasnodar station (south of Russia), part of the ALPHA/RSDN-20 VLF navigation system, or the 77.5 kHz DCF77 time signal transmitter (near Frankfurt am Main, Germany). Moreover, the installation of a new reception point in Romania (near Cluj-Napoca) for monitoring the Vrancea area (within the Carpathians Mountains) and the Adriatic region will provide complementary scientific data within the network.     

An application of 4D seismic monitoring technique to modern coal mining

To study the impact of modern coal mining on the overlying formation, a full‐life‐cycle four‐dimensional seismic monitoring study has been carried out. Four seismic data campaigns have been performed using flexi‐bin geometry with square bins, with total duration of 171 days. The four seismic datasets have been processed with the same processing workflow and parameters; major problems such as statics correction, signal‐to‐noise ratio, resolution, and consistency processing are addressed taking into account the geological features of the research area. This guarantees that remaining four‐dimensional differences between the time‐lapse datasets show mostly geological factors due to the coal mining and effects such as surface subsidence. Our four‐dimensional seismic monitoring of modern coal mining shows that mined and unmined areas have significant zoning characteristics; coal mining has a direct impact on the overlying formation. The mining leads to obvious event subsidence, which reflects that overlying formations undergo subsidence during the mining process. The overlying formation appears as two zones called caving zone and fractured zone. We determine the fault dip of the overlying formation at one end of the working face to be 56°or so by calculation and conversion. We also see that, during the coal mining process, over time, the overlying formation has a self‐recovery capability, which gradually strengthens from the roof siltstone upward to the Aeolian sandstone near the surface. The stability of 20‐m coal pillars between working faces displays a strengthening trend and remains safe during the mining process due to both coal seam supporting and formation compaction effects.     

地震重点监视防御区县级行政单元地震危险性的差异统计及其分类管理的建议

本文利用GIS技术,将全国地震重点监视防御区(重防区)县级行政单元边界分别与中华人民共和国地震动峰值加速度图和中国及邻区地震区带和潜在震源区划分图叠加,对各县分别计算了如下4个地震危险性指标:(1)县境内最高地震动峰值加速度等级;(2)县境内面积比例最大的地震动峰值加速度等级;(3)县境内最高潜在震源区震级上限等级;(4)县境内面积比例最大的潜在震源区震级上限等级.通过分类统计全国重防区县级行政单元的地震危险性分布,得到的结论是:虽然同为重防区但各地的地震危险性相差巨大.据此,建议根据地震危险性的不同在重防区采取如下措施:第一,不论是何种类型的重防区,均应按中国地震动参数区划图对新建工程做抗震设防,对已有建筑做抗震加固;第二,位于高地震危险性的区域,特别是位于具7级以上潜在地震危险的重防区,要加强与防灾有关的应急准备、城市规划、地震监测预报、地震应急响应等专门措施.     

长河坝—黄金坪水库区域地震台网监测能力分析

位于四川省甘孜藏族自治州康定市内大渡河干流的长河坝—黄金坪水电站,为大渡河流域开发中,以长河坝、大岗山、瀑布沟等形成主要梯级格局开发方案中,"三库22级"水电站中的第10和11级电站,其地震监测台网也采用梯级设计方式,长河坝—黄金坪上下游水库地震监测台网统一设计、建设及监测,共享同一地震监测能力。通过对监测设备的技术指标、台基地噪声水平和震级—频度对数关系的分析,结果表明,长河坝—黄金坪水库区域地震固定台站建成后,地震监测能力达到并优于设计的理论监测能力,地震监测震级达到下限为M_L 0.5的设计要求。     

地震监测台网优化布局技术方法综述

科学定量的评估技术是地震监测台网设计和布局优化研究中的重要内容,本文对已有的单目标优化和多目标优化方法,以及优化算法等的研究进展进行了系统总结.为了做横向比较,还对环保污染物监测、农业灌溉布网、建筑工程物料规划、风电场布站等其他领域监测台网优化问题的研究进展进行了总结.此外,还对地震监测台网布局优化涉及的算法选择、布局评价方法等一些具体问题进行了讨论.上述总结,将对未来面向日趋复杂的地震监测台网功能需求,进行量化的多目标优化设计提供科学参考.     

Performance-based methodology for assessing seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings

This paper presents a performance-based methodology for the assessment of seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings. The vulnerability assessment methodology is based on the HAZUS methodology and the improved capacity- demand-diagram method. The spectral displacement (Sd) of performance points on a capacity curve is used to estimate the damage level of a building. The relationship between Sd and peak ground acceleration (PGA) is established, and then a new vulnerability function is expressed in terms of PGA. Furthermore, the expected value of the seismic capacity index (SCev) is provided to estimate the seismic capacity of buildings based on the probability distribution of damage levels and the corresponding seismic capacity index. The results indicate that the proposed vulnerability methodology is able to assess seismic damage of a large number of building stock directly and quickly following an earthquake. The SCev provides an effective index to measure the seismic capacity of buildings and illustrate the relationship between the seismic capacity of buildings and seismic action. The estimated result is compared with damage surveys of the cities of Dujiangyan and Jiangyou in the M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, revealing that the methodology is acceptable for seismic risk assessment and decision making. The primary reasons for discrepancies between the estimated results and the damage surveys are discussed.     

基于PMC方法的上海测震台网地震监测能力评估

采用基于概率的完整性震级(PMC)方法,选取上海测震台网13个地震台站及周边省市地震台2008—2019年记录的171个地震,计算各地震台及上海测震台网地震监测能力,并模拟增加新的地震台站后台网监测能力的变化。结果显示:①地表基岩台的监测能力较深井台强,且受噪声和地铁影响,市区深井台监测能力较低;②整体上,台站密布的松江和青浦地区,地震监测能力较强,最小完整性震级为M_L 0.7。台站稀疏的浦东、奉贤、崇明地区,地震监测能力较弱,最小完整性震级为M_L 1.3;③若在上海南部增设奉贤海湾台,可整体提高上海测震台网的监测能力。     

首都圈遥测地震台网所采用的SEED格式及ASCII码格式的转换程序

介绍了首都圈台网SEED格式波形文件的结构,SEED文件中各块的具体内容以及读取文件的方法。介绍了将SEED波形数据转换为ASCII码格式的程序设计方法,程序所用的参数文件以及输出结果。     

华北北部地区地震中短期前兆场的震中区前兆空区模式

华北北部地区３次强震的交兆场研究结果表明,在地震发生前几个至十几（或几十个）个月的时间尺度上,未来震中区表现为前兆平静或空白的特征,同期外转眍中小地震活动十分活跃,地震前兆异常也大量涌现。根据这些现象,提出了地震中短期前兆场的震中区前兆空区模式。