棉花烂铃的气象条件及其防御

棉花烂铃是棉花生长中后期的常发性病害,严重影响了棉花的产量和品质。通过对1989—1998 年的资料分析,发现棉花烂铃的主要原因是由气象条件造成的,从中找出了棉花烂铃的规律,并提出了防御烂铃的一些具体措施     

基于灰色关联分析的新疆棉花产量气象影响因素研究

整理了新疆境内2000—2009年的棉花单产、年降水量、年平均相对湿度、年日照时数以及年平均气温等统计数据,对各因素变化趋势及相关性进行了分析,并应用灰色关联分析方法研究各个气象因素对棉花产量的影响程度。结果表明,年日照时数与棉花单产之间相关性最好,对棉花产量贡献最大,基于日照时数建立的棉花产量预测模型具有良好精度。     

随州市渍涝灾害分类及其对棉花生产的影响

为了揭示渍涝灾害对棉花生长发育和产量(品质)形成的影响,使用随州市1989～2003年棉花生育期资料、产量资料,结合同期有关气象资料,对该市渍涝灾害进行了分类,并分析了渍涝灾害对当地棉花生产的影响。结果表明,制约当地棉花生长发育与产量(品质)构成的渍涝灾害有阴雨冷害型、寡照多雨型、暴雨洪涝型、多雨降温型四种类型;与正常年份相比,渍害出现年份棉花产量和品质都有明显下降;棉花烂桃率与8月份雨日数成正比,与当月日照时数成反比。     

红壤旱地棉田间作小气候效应初步研究

为研究棉田间作对田间小气候的影响,共设置4个处理:棉花单作、棉花间作花生、棉花间作甘薯、棉花间作大豆,研究不同间作棉田群体对不同层次的光强、土壤温度以及棉花农艺性状及产量的影响。结果表明,与棉花单作系统相比,间作系统可通过改变受光结构、土壤温度、土壤含水量等促进棉花生长发育,利于棉花种植获得高产;棉花间作大豆模式是较适宜在红壤旱地推广的间作模式。     

河南省棉花主要生育期气候特点的分析

棉花的生长、发育、产量和品质与农业气候条件关系十分密切。对棉花的几个主要生育期的农业气候条件进行分析鉴定,对于充分利用有利的和避免、克服不利的气候条件,实行科学种田,使棉花迅速达到稳产、高产具有重要的参考意义。本文就棉花适宜播种期的选择,气温对现蕾迟早的影响,开花期低温、高温及阴雨对棉花授粉的影响,棉花打顶适期和秋季棉花最后的有效成铃日期的确定等作了初步分析。一、播种出苗期适时早播是使棉花增产的关键性措施之一。适时早播的棉花苗全、苗壮,各生育阶段都适当提早,株     

棉花适时播种的农业气象条件鉴定

棉花是我县的主要经济作物,搞好棉花生产对国防建设和社会主义经济建设具有重大意义。在整个棉花生产技术上,第一关就是播种。棉花播种对气象条件要求比较严格,播种是否适宜对产量关系很大,因此,做好棉花适宜播种期预报,对棉花生产具有重大现实意义。     

新疆博州气象条件对棉花产量的影响分析

气象条件对棉花产量有着明显的影响,分析总结博州棉花生产受气象条件影响的关键因子和关键时段,将为保证博州棉花高产稳产提供科学依据。本文利用新疆博州1997－2012年的棉花产量、生育期、和气象资料,采用直线回归拟合方法分离出气象产量,并与棉花全生育期内各时段的气象要素进行相关分析,总结出博州棉花生产受气象条件影响的关键因子和关键时段。结果表明,4月中、下旬播种出苗期,降水和日照是影响博州棉花产量的主要影响因子;５月幼苗期,降雨日数和日照时数是影响棉花产量的关键因子;６月处于五叶和现蕾期,气温和日照是影响棉花产量的关键因子;7月是博州最热的季节,棉花处于开花期,并开始结铃,降水和气温是影响棉花生长的关键因素;8-９月棉花裂铃和吐絮期,博州出现影响棉铃生长的高温干旱和低温寡照天气不明显。最后针对博州棉花生产提出了气象服务重点工作建议,为搞好气象为农服务,为博州棉花高产稳产提供了科学依据。     

气候变暖对河西走廊棉花生长的影响

 利用甘肃省敦煌农业气象观测站1983-2002年的棉花生物资料和气象观测资料,就气候变暖对西北干旱区棉花生长的影响进行了初步的探讨。结果表明：气候变暖使西北干旱区河西走廊绿洲作物棉花的生长季提前,生长期延长,有利于提高棉花的产量。     

山东棉花产量旱灾损失评估模型

采用统计方法,对棉花气象产量与气候因子进行统计分析,得到了各生育时段影响产量的主要降水因子和需水指标,从而根据当年的降水量对棉花产量因旱灾造成的损失程度进行评估,建立区域、省级棉花旱灾损失评估模型。     

温度对棉花产量结构及发育速度的可能影响

该文利用新疆农业气象观测资料，在构建棉花品种熟性指数的基础上，建立了温度对不同品种棉花产量结构及发育速度影响的模式，进一步分析了温度变化对不同品种棉花单株铃数、单铃重、霜前花比例及发育速度的可能影响。该文对棉花生产气象监测、预测及评价工作有重要参考价值。     

Shocks to fish production: Identification,trends, and consequences

Sudden disruptions, or shocks, to food production can adversely impact access to and trade of food commodities. Seafood is the most traded food commodity and is globally important to human nutrition. The seafood production and trade system is exposed to a variety of disruptions including fishery collapses, natural disasters, oil spills, policy changes, and aquaculture disease outbreaks, aquafeed resource access and price spikes. The patterns and trends of these shocks to fisheries and aquaculture are poorly characterized and this limits the ability to generalize or predict responses to political, economic, and environmental changes. We applied a statistical shock detection approach to historic fisheries and aquaculture data to identify shocks over the period 1976–2011. A complementary case study approach was used to identify possible key social and political dynamics related to these shocks. The lack of a trend in the frequency or magnitude of the identified shocks and the range of identified causes suggest shocks are a common feature of these systems which occur due to a variety, and often multiple and simultaneous, causes. Shocks occurred most frequently in the Caribbean and Central America, the Middle East and North Africa, and South America, while the largest magnitude shocks occurred in Asia, Europe, and Africa. Shocks also occurred more frequently in aquaculture systems than in capture systems, particularly in recent years. In response to shocks, countries tend to increase imports and experience decreases in supply. The specific combination of changes in trade and supply are context specific, which is highlighted through four case studies. Historical examples of shocks considered in this study can inform policy for responding to shocks and identify potential risks and opportunities to build resilience in the global food system.     

科学应对气候变化 建设江西生态文明

阐述了科学应对气候变化对实现“建设生态文明”战略目标的重要性。结合江西实际,分析了气候变化对江西农业、水资源、森林和其他生态系统的影响。在此基础上,提出了江西应对气候变化应采取的措施：一是进一步优化能源结构,大力发展循环经济,加强节能减排管理,以减缓温室气体排放;二是继续加强农业基础设施建设,推进农业结构和种植制度调整,选育抗逆品种,以加强农业生态建设;三是加强水资源管理与保护,进一步强化水利基础设施规划和建设;四是进一步完善森林生态系统建设,大力推进生态市、县和生态城市建设,健全林业有害生物检疫、测报和防虫服务体系,以加强森林和其他生态系统建设;五是研究和用好“排放权”特殊资源;六是采取加强气候变化相关科技工作的管理与协调,加强气候变化相关科研工作,加强气候变化领域科技人才建设,促进产业结构优化和升级,加强应对气候变化的节能减排科技成果的推广和转化,加大对气候变化科学研究与技术开发的资金投入等,以提高气候变化相关科技工作的水平和能力;七是发挥政府的推动作用,加强宣传、教育和培训工作,提高公众应对气候变化意识和水平。     

适应气候变化的国际行动和农业措施研究进展

针对气候变暖采取稳健的适应措施已成为国际社会共识。该文综合了当前适应气候变化的国际谈判进展及已有的农业适应气候变化措施,指出适应资金严重不足,技术研发、应用与转让难以实施,以及适应气候变化行动实施能力的不足严重制约着适应气候变化行动的有效实施;关于农业适应气候变化的技术措施仍缺乏系统的理论研究与应用示范。在此基础上,提出了未来中国农业适应气候变化需要重点开展的研究任务,即农业气象灾变过程的新特点及其风险管理, 农业适应气候变化的大数据决策管理系统研发及适应气候变化的农业气候区划与减灾保产技术研究,以切实推进农业适应气候变化,为确保国家粮食安全与农业可持续发展提供支撑。     

Multiple exposures and dynamic vulnerability: Evidence from the grape industry in the Okanagan Valley, Canada

This paper assesses the vulnerability of grape growers and winery operators in the Okanagan Valley, British Columbia to climate variability and change, in the context of other sources of risk. Through interviews and focus groups, producers identified the climatic and non-climatic risks relevant to them and the strategies employed to manage these risks. The results show that the presence of multiple exposures affects the way in which producers are vulnerable to climate change. Producers are vulnerable to conditions that not only affect crop yield, but also affect their ability to compete in or sell to the market. Their sensitivity to these conditions is influenced in part by institutional factors such as trade liberalization and a “markup-free delivery” policy. Producers’ ability to adapt or cope with these risks varies depending on such factors as the availability of resources and technology, and access to government programmes. Producers will likely face challenges associated with the supply of water for irrigation due to a combination of climatic changes and changing demographics in the Okanagan Valley, which in turn affect their ability to adapt to climatic conditions. Finally, adaptations made by producers can change the nature of the operation and its vulnerability, demonstrating the dynamic nature of vulnerability.     

Understanding the causes and consequences of differential decision-making in adaptation research: Adapting to a delayed monsoon onset in Gujarat,India

Weather variability poses numerous risks to agricultural communities, yet farmers may be able to reduce some of these risks by adapting their cropping practices to better suit changes in weather. However, not all farmers respond to weather variability in the same way. To better identify the causes and consequences of this heterogeneous decision-making, we develop a framework that identifies (1) which socio-economic and biophysical factors are associated with heterogeneous cropping decisions in response to weather variability and (2) which cropping strategies are the most adaptive, considering economic outcomes (e.g., yields and profits). This framework aims to understand how, why, and how effectively farmers adapt to current weather variability; these findings, in turn, may contribute to a more mechanistic and predictive understanding of individual-level adaptation to future climate variability and change. To illustrate this framework, we assessed how 779 farmers responded to delayed monsoon onset in fifteen villages in Gujarat, India during the 2011 growing season, when the monsoon onset was delayed by three weeks. We found that farmers adopted a variety of strategies to cope with delayed monsoon onset, including increasing irrigation use, switching to more drought-tolerant crops, and/or delaying sowing. We found that farmers’ access to and choice of strategies varied with their assets, irrigation access, perceptions of weather, and risk aversion. Richer farmers with more irrigation access used high levels of irrigation, and this strategy was associated with the highest yields in our survey sample. Poorer farmers with less secure access to irrigation were more likely to push back planting dates or switch crop type, and economic data suggest that these strategies were beneficial for those who did not have secure access to irrigation. Interestingly, after controlling for assets and irrigation access, we found that cognitive factors, such as beliefs that the monsoon onset date had changed over the last 20 years or risk aversion, were associated with increased adaptation. Our framework illustrates the importance of considering the complexity and heterogeneity of individual decision-making when conducting climate impact assessments or when developing policies to enhance the adaptive capacity of local communities to future climate variability and change.     

Editorial

Despite the increasing interest in climate change policy in the US, little systematic research has been conducted on the willingness of individuals to change their behaviour to mitigate the problem. Understanding behavioural change is critical if federal and local governments intend to implement programmes requiring actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change. This understudied aspect of climate change policy is addressed by quantitatively examining the degree to which residents living in the US are willing to alter their behaviour to mitigate climate change impacts, and by identifying the major factors contributing to this willingness. Based on a national survey, the reported willingness of individuals to alter behaviours is explained, using the components of risk, individual stress, capacity and ecological values. The findings indicate that specific personal traits and contextual characteristics trigger a significantly greater willingness to change longstanding behavioural patterns. These insights into the factors motivating behavioural change can provide guidance to decision makers at both federal and local levels on how best to implement climate change policies.     

中国天山积雪对气候变化响应的多通径分析

基于天山山区1961-2013年60个气象站点实测气温、降水、相对湿度、日照时数和积雪深度等气候资料,结合时间序列分析、空间分析以及通径分析等方法,全面精确地获取了天山山区气候变化特征以及气候变化对积雪的通径影响。结果表明：天山山区气候变化显著,主要表现为整体增暖、局部变湿与黯化;气候变暖导致天山山区固态降水（降雪）保证率明显降低,尤其是低海拔区域。各气象要素对积雪不仅存在直接的单因素影响而且各气象要素之间还存在间接的相互交叉、相互联结的多因素影响。单因素影响通径分别为气温、降水和日照时数对积雪深度的3条直接影响通径;多因素影响通径分别为气温、降水和日照时数通过相互之间的内在关系对积雪深度产生的6条间接影响通径。最终结果表明气温是积雪变化的主要影响因素,其影响效应远远大于降水和日照时数的影响。     

低碳经济——江西崛起的后发优势

气候变暖是当今时代所面临的最大挑战之一。在全球应对气候变暖的同时,作为前沿经济理念和发展模式的低碳经济应运而生了。按照低碳经济的内涵,江西发展低碳经济面临着机遇和挑战,总体上对正在实现“进位赶超、跨越发展、加快崛起”的江西是后发优势。为此,要做好八个方面的工作：坚持发展与保护并重不动摇,全社会树立低碳经济理念与方式,持续开展节能减排,大力发展低碳能源,着力改善自然生态系统质量,建立低碳与生态工业园区,加强农村环境综合整治,以科技创新支持低碳经济。     

农户生计对气候变化的敏感性研究综述

开展农户生计对气候变化的敏感性研究有利于深入认识气候变化与生计的关系,对增强农户的气候变化适应能力和降低生计脆弱性具有重要意义。在梳理不同领域敏感性概念的基础上,阐述了农户生计对气候变化敏感性的科学内涵和研究框架,重点分析了敏感性表征和综合评价指标体系。农户生计对气候变化的敏感性是指气候变化和极端事件对农户生计的影响程度,敏感性表征主要表现在气候变化对自然资源、人类健康、牲畜、资产和收入等方面的影响,不同地区和人群敏感性表征具有差异性。农户生计对气候变化的敏感性随着发展程度提高而下降,生计多样化、基础设施建设等有助于降低气候变化的影响。生计敏感性多为脆弱性研究的一部分,常以可持续生计分析为框架,运用指标评估法进行综合评价。未来研究需要完善敏感性理论框架和研究方法,加强适应的有效性评估,以及开展跨区域或跨时段的生计敏感性对比研究,重点关注生态脆弱和贫困地区。     

Contributions of Fuqing ZHANG to Predictability,Data Assimilation,and Dynamics of High Impact Weather: A Tribute

This article reviews Fuqing ZHANG’s contributions to mesoscale atmospheric science,from research to mentoring to academic service,over his 20-year career.His fundamental scientific contributions on predictability,data assimilation,and dynamics of high impact weather,especially gravity waves and tropical cyclones,are highlighted.His extremely generous efforts to efficiently transmit to the community new scientific knowledge and ideas through mentoring,interacting,workshop organizing,and reviewing are summarized.Special appreciation is given to his tremendous contributions to the development of mesoscale meteorology in China and the education of Chinese graduate students and young scientists.