Mesoclimatology: Present Themes and Future Prospects

Abstract. Some results of recent research into mesoscale phenomena and climate are reviewed –notably sea breezes, cyclonic eddies, dry lake circulations, urban climates and topoclimates –with particular reference to New Zealand. Extension of this work into modelling and prediction of climate change is likely, and the case for a more integrated geography –one which could fruitfully address questions relating to environmental inputs and societal adjustments which are currently neglected by physical geography –is made.     

Depicting urban boundaries from a mobility network of spatial interactions: a case study of Great Britain with geo-located Twitter data

Existing urban boundaries are usually defined by government agencies for administrative, economic, and political purposes. However, it is not clear whether the boundaries truly reflect human interactions with urban space in intra- and interregional activities. Defining urban boundaries that consider socioeconomic relationships and citizen commute patterns is important for many aspects of urban and regional planning. In this paper, we describe a method to delineate urban boundaries based upon human interactions with physical space inferred from social media. Specifically, we depicted the urban boundaries of Great Britain using a mobility network of Twitter user spatial interactions, which was inferred from over 69 million geo-located tweets. We define the non-administrative anthropographic boundaries in a hierarchical fashion based on different physical movement ranges of users derived from the collective mobility patterns of Twitter users in Great Britain. The results of strongly connected urban regions in the form of communities in the network space yield geographically cohesive, nonoverlapping urban areas, which provide a clear delineation of the non-administrative anthropographic urban boundaries of Great Britain. The method was applied to both national (Great Britain) and municipal scales (the London metropolis). While our results corresponded well with the administrative boundaries, many unexpected and interesting boundaries were identified. Importantly, as the depicted urban boundaries exhibited a strong instance of spatial proximity, we employed a gravity model to understand the distance decay effects in shaping the delineated urban boundaries. The model explains how geographical distances found in the mobility patterns affect the interaction intensity among different non-administrative anthropographic urban areas, which provides new insights into human spatial interactions with urban space.     

元胞自动机在城市模拟中的误差传递与不确定性的特征分析

元胞自动机(Cellular Automata,简称CA)已越来越多地用于地理现象的模拟中,如城市系统的演化等。城市模拟经常要使用GIS数据库中的空间信息,数据源中的误差将会通过CA模拟过程发生传递。此外,CA 模型只是对现实世界的近似模拟,这就使得其本身也具有不确定性。这些不确定因素将对城市模拟的结果产生较大的影响,有必要探讨CA在模拟过程中的误差传递与不确定性问题。本文采用蒙特卡罗方法模拟了CA误差的传递特征,并从转换规则、邻域结构、模拟时间以及随机变量等几个方面分析了CA不确定性产生的根源。发现与传统的GIS模型相比,城市CA模型中的误差和不确定性的很多性质是非常独特的。例如,在模拟过程中由于邻域函数平均化的影响,数据源误差将减小;随着可用的土地越来越少,该限制也使城市模拟的误差随时间而减小;模拟结果的不确定性主要体现在城市的边缘。这些分析结果有助于城市建模和规划者更好地理解CA建模的特点。     

Reservoir resettlement in China: past experience and the Three Gorges Dam

This paper reviews involuntary resettlement resulting from dam-building, which has been ignored relative to the dominant focus of migration research in China, rural to urban migration. Reservoir resettlement in China has a long history, often of misery and hardship for those displaced. Relocatees affected by the Three Gorges Project (1994–2009) on the Yangtze River face a similar situation. In China priority has been given to building the dam to provide electricity, flood control and navigation. Less attention has been paid to the problems of the people affected by the reservoir inundation. The rural population forced to relocate and rural-urban migrants in general have been discriminated against by national policies.     

Application of a spatially explicit backcasting model: A case study of sustainable development in Salzburg,Austria

The high cost of land for housing within urban centres and the common desire to live within extensive residential areas in the green countryside have, in some cases, led to increasing residential development in the urban hinterland, often resulting in dispersed and sprawling development. In order to counteract such development this article seeks to provide a methodology for implementing strategies which aim is to achieve sustainable development in spatial planning. The proposed methodology, which is known as “backcasting”, aims to improve our ability to avoid undesirable future developments and to encourage those developments that are desirable. Backcasting has previously mostly been used within theoretical processes or frameworks. The backcasting exercise presented in this paper used a Python-based model to create often visionary future scenarios based on interviews with relevant experts, and then used these scenarios as input for a backwards running model. This model simulates a development that runs backwards in time, converging towards the present situation. The backcasting model presented herein has been applied to a case study in Salzburg, Austria.     

The inclusion of differentially assessed lands in urban growth model calibration: a comparison of two approaches using SLEUTH

This research sought to understand the role that differentially assessed lands (lands in the United States given tax breaks in return for their guarantee to remain in agriculture) play in influencing urban growth. Our method was to calibrate the SLEUTH urban growth model under two different conditions. The first used an excluded layer that ignored such lands, effectively rendering them available for development. The second treated those lands as totally excluded from development. Our hypothesis was that excluding those lands would yield better metrics of fit with past data. Our results validate our hypothesis since two different metrics that evaluate goodness of fit both yielded higher values when differentially assessed lands are treated as excluded. This suggests that, at least in our study area, differential assessment, which protects farm and ranch lands for tenuous periods of time, has indeed allowed farmland to resist urban development. Including differentially assessed lands also yielded very different calibrated coefficients of growth as the model tried to account for the same growth patterns over two very different excluded areas. Excluded layer design can greatly affect model behavior. Since differentially assessed lands are quite common through the United States and are often ignored in urban growth modeling, the findings of this research can assist other urban growth modelers in designing excluded layers that result in more accurate model calibration and thus forecasting.     

Transferability study of the Large Zone Economic Module (LZEM) of the SE3M model of land use and transportation

Models of urban land use are often used in the policy analysis process to forecast long-range impacts of various land use policies or urban infrastructure projects. For models that have been deemed suitable for multiple implementations, a critical, initial test of the model framework is to examine the model's transferability to other geographies. The purpose of this paper is to present a transferability study of the Large Zone Economic Module (LZEM) of the SE³M model of land use and transportation. The SE³M was initially implemented in the US territory of Guam. The islands of Puerto Rico and Oahu were selected as case studies for this model, transferability evaluation. LZEM is implemented with three base years (2000, 2002 and 2007) for these case studies and then validated to 2010 as horizon year for which validation data was available in the Puerto Rico and Oahu implementations. This paper presents evidence that LZEM is reasonably accurate when applied to other geographic regions and that if specific economic parameters are identified, the entire regional economy and the associated population and employment distribution can be spatially modeled within the LZEM framework.     

The unauthorized city: Late colonial Lusaka and postcolonial geography

This paper uses a case study of Lusaka, Zambia, to interrogate several aspects of the literature on postcolonial geography. I deploy two concepts from African postcolonial studies – the idea of exclusionary democracy and the concept of the domestication of difference – and assess the continuity in their applicability to Lusaka. More specifically, I examine the contention that both the political and the planning dynamics of the last years of colonialism are foundational to state–society relationships in contemporary Lusaka. Distinguishing two spheres for in-depth discussion – urban government and housing policy – I concentrate on the final years of colonialism, moving through to the contemporary setting, to examine if the roots still show for the processes creating exclusionary democracy and domesticating difference. I also examine the ambivalent and incomplete character of those processes. I close with an assessment of the broader meaning inherent in understanding Lusaka in postcolonial terms.     

Targeting seasonal climate forecasts for integration into household level decisions: the case of smallholder farmers in Lesotho

Seasonal climate forecasts have been promoted as a means to increase the resilience of marginal groups in Africa. The manifestations of this are still to be seen. This paper argues that successful dissemination and adoption of the forecast requires an in-depth profile of the characteristics and needs of user groups. The case study of a mountainous village in southern Lesotho is used to highlight the decisions which one group of marginal users – smallholder farmers – might make in response to the forecast. A participatory role-play exercise explores what information households presently receive and how new climate forecast information could be integrated into seasonal decision making. Results show that there are a number of low-input options available to these farmers for responding to the forecast. Adoption, however, is going to require repeated exposure to the forecast in conjunction with forecast development that is suited to users' needs. The case study is linked back to the larger scale by suggesting paths that seasonal climate forecast development could take if it is to contribute to improving livelihood sustainability among marginal groups.     

Academic publishing as 'creative' industry, and recent discourses of 'creative economies': some critical reflections

This paper continues recent discussions on the (geo)politics of the production of academic knowledges, in relation to the recent rise of narratives of 'the creative economy'. Creativity and the 'creative industries' are increasingly common components of urban economic development discourse, especially following the release of a set of key books – most notably Charles Landry's The Creative City (2000), and Richard Florida's The Rise of the Creative Class (2002) – that have become popular among economic development planners and cultural policy makers. This paper focuses on the traffic of these books, and their authors, beyond the Anglo-American core. It also briefly discusses policy discourses interpreted from these texts. It is principally, though, a critique of the ways in which academic knowledges circulate, stemming from theorization of academics as creative producers, and of knowledge production as part of the creative economy. The article seeks to critique the means by which particular northern economic knowledges become normative, framed as universal and 'global', and are distributed and absorbed via intellectual 'scenes' and an academic 'celebrity' circuit.     

A battle on two fronts: competitive urges 'inside' Atlanta

This paper argues that intra –regional competition is as important as intra –regional in the shaping of an urban region. Recent concentration on urban promotion within the discipline places an emphasis on competition between cities that should be counterbalanced by stressing the degree of competition between cities and their suburban peripheries. Using the case of Atlanta, Georgia, and in particular its Vision 2020 initiative, the paper explores how regionalist approaches can easily unravel due to continued rivalries from individual constituents. Placing its theoretical grounding within David Harvey's notion of 'structural coherence', the paper argues that regional policies within a capitalist environment of uneven development tend towards only temporary solutions.     

中国地级以上城市公园绿地服务水平评估:数据、模型和方法

现有城市公园绿地服务的评估常以给定的城市空间范围和公园绿地为前提,评估对象及其空间范围具有较大随意性,致使很难根据评估结果判断城市公园绿地的空间配置是否合理,或对不同城市进行比较。本文对城市公园绿地服务水平评估的数据、模型和方法进行了梳理,从公园绿地的类别、等级、服务范围和可选择性等要素着眼,提出了以城市建成区内居民至周边公园绿地的可达性为核心的评估指标和模型方法。运用开源空间数据和Densi-Graph分析方法,解决了城市公园绿地空间数据的提取、城市建成区范围的界定、指标构建等关键技术问题,使城市公园绿地的评估获得了客观性、统一性和可比性的保障。对全国273个地级的评估结果表明,我国地级市公园绿地服务覆盖率平均值达到64.8%,尚有超过两成的城市公园绿地服务覆盖率不到50.0%,公园绿地服务水平与现行国家标准之间尚有差距。公园绿地服务水平存在明显的区域差距,服务水平较高的城市显著集中于特大城市、东部沿海发达地区和东北地区,同时,与城市人口规模相对应呈现出S型曲线上升趋势。为避免区域发展的不协调,应增加对中小城市和中西部地区城市绿地公共服务的投入。     

Urban–agricultural water appropriation: the Hyderabad, India case

With the urbanisation drive comes steady growth in urban water demand. Although in the past this new demand could often be met by tapping unclaimed water sources, this option is increasingly untenable in many regions where little if any unclaimed water remains. The result is that urban water capture, and the appropriation of associated physical and institutional infrastructure, now often implies conflict with other existing uses and users. While the urbanisation process has been studied in great depth, the processes and, critically, impacts of urban water capture and appropriation are not well researched or understood. This paper undertakes a critical examination of the specific case of Hyderabad, one of India's fastest growing cities, to shed light more generally on the process of water capture by cities and the resultant impacts on pre-existing claims, particularly agriculture. It does this by examining the history and institutional response to Hyderabad's urban–rural water contest; how the results of that contest are reflected in surface and groundwater hydrology; and the eventual impacts on agriculture. The findings show that the magnitude, and sometimes even direction, of impact from urban water transfer vary in space and time and depend on location-specific rainfall patterns, the nature of existing water infrastructure and institutions, and farmers' adaptive capacities and options, notably recourse to groundwater. Broader consideration of the specific findings provides insights into policy mechanisms to reduce the possible negative impacts from the global, and seemingly inexorable, flow of water to the world's growing cities.     

高密度城市绿地规划模式研究——以广州市为例

西方的许多城市规划理论和学说都探讨了绿地规划模式,中国的绿地规划思想也经历了从古典园林到山 水城市的发展,这些均能给予中国城市绿地规划模式研究的许多启示.文中以广州市为例,分析了高密度城市绿地规划实践中的现有若干模式、存在问题;基于高密度城市绿地规划的困境,建议将"立体开发"模式作为高密度城市绿地规划的一般性理论模式,并对应用这一理念涉及到的一些问题作了初步探讨.     

基于DPSIRM模型的社区人居环境安全空间分异——以大连市为例

以DPSIRM因果关系模型拟定指标体系,运用模糊层次分析法和综合比较法赋权并量化计算,基于地理信息系统空间分析方法,对大连社区人居环境状况和全空间分异格局进行研究,结果表明:大连市社区人居环境安全单元分为五个类别,即社区人居环境安全评价很差单元、社区人居环境安全评价较差单元、社区人居环境安全评价过渡单元、社区人居环境安全评价较好单元、社区人居环境安全评价优良单元;大连市人居环境安全的空间分布中各分区所占的比例为:人居环境安全区30.598%,人居环境较安全区30.232%,人居环境安全过渡区9.678%,人居环境较不安全区12.299%,人居环境不安全区17.193%;南部滨海区人居环境安全好,北部城乡结合部人居环境安全差,呈现由南向北递减趋势;中部是国家森林公园等植被覆盖好的区域,人居环境安全好。研究表明本文所建评价模型具有普遍性,可用于不同社区人居环境因子的评价与比较。     

Ecosystem Services in a Transitional Forest Landscape: Shifting Trajectories in Southeast Michigan,USA

North American forests provide multiple ecosystem services, such as carbon storage, biodiversity, and recreation. These services are often coordinated through multifunctional management, whereby various users and owners contribute to collective agendas. Forests in exurban “transition” zones are crucial components in the sustainability of broader metropolitan landscapes, but represent a particularly understudied confluence of ecosystem services and multifunctional management. In this paper, we develop a place-based approach to assess ecosystem services in transitional forests (those between rural and urban). We demonstrate how trajectories of forest composition are linked with shifting ecosystem services that both shape and are shaped by management activities. Sited in Stinchfield Woods, a forest in southeast Michigan, this study draws on a household survey, interviews, ecological data, and archival information. Given variations in priorities over time and among different users, we suggest that coordinated, adaptive management may improve provisioning of ecosystem services in ways that benefit multiple users.     

A wide-angle seismic traverse through the Variscan of southwest Ireland

A wide-angle seismic profile across the western peninsulas of SW Ireland was performed. This region corresponds to the northernmost Variscan thrust and fold deformation. The dense set of 13 shots and 109 stations along the 120  km long profile provides a detailed velocity model of the crust.
  The seismic velocity model, obtained by forward and inverse modelling, defines a five-layer crust. A sedimentary layer, 5–8  km thick, is underlain by an upper-crustal layer of variable thickness, with a base generally at a depth of 10–12  km. Two mid-crustal layers are defined, and a lower-crustal layer below 22  km. The Moho lies at a depth of 30–32  km. A low-velocity zone, which coincides with a well-defined gravity low, is observed in the central part of the region and is modelled as a Caledonian granite which intruded upper-crustal basement. The granite may have acted as a buffer to northward-directed Variscan thrusting. The Dingle–Dungarvan Line (DDL) marks a major change in sedimentary and crustal velocity and structure. It lies immediately to the north of the velocity and gravity low, and shows thickness and velocity differences in many of the underlying crustal layers and even in the Moho. This suggests a deep, pre-Variscan control of the structural development of this area. The model is compatible with thin-skinned tectonics, which terminated at the DDL and which incorporated thrusts involving the sedimentary and upper-crustal layers.     

ASSURE: a model for the simulation of urban expansion and intra-urban social segregation

Numerous cities in developing regions worldwide are expanding at a tremendous rate. This requires adequate strategies to address the needs of these growing cities with diverse populations. Nonetheless, the development of urban policies is often hampered by the lack of reliable data or insight in the socio-spatial dynamics of this urban expansion. This paper therefore presents ASSURE, a spatially and temporally explicit model that can simulate urban growth and intra-urban social segregation, taking into account alternative policy strategies and expected social dynamics. The model has a flexible structure that allows incorporating specific city conditions that influence residential decision-making and adapting the simulation to the data available. This, in combination with the transparent model structure, makes ASSURE a potentially valuable decision support tool for urban planning. The potential is demonstrated with an example where the urban growth of and social segregation in Kampala (Uganda) is simulated based on (semi-)quantitative and qualitative data for ca. 800 households collected through interviews. The results of the simulations show that depending on the scenario, the spatial segregation and accessibility problems will evolve highly differently.     

Good, bad or 'necessary evil'? Reinterpreting the colonial burning experiments in the savanna landscapes of West Africa

A simple ecological model underlies contemporary fire policy in many West African countries. The model holds that the timing (or seasonality) of annual savanna fires is a principal determinant of vegetation cover. The model's origin can be traced to the ideas held by influential colonial scientists who viewed anthropogenic fire as a prime force of regional environmental degradation. The main evidence in support of the model derives from the results of a series of long-term burning experiments carried out during last century. The experimental results have been repeatedly mapped onto fire policy often taking the form of a three-tiered model in which fire exclusion is considered the ultimate management objective, late dry-season fire is discouraged and early dry-season fire is allowed but only under specific, often state-controlled circumstances. This paper provides a critique of contemporary fire policy in the region and the fire ecology model on which it is based. Through an analysis of burn scars for the 2002–3 fire season generated from ETM+ imagery, the study documents the spatiotemporal pattern of burning for an area in southern Mali. It argues that current policy, which is informed by an a-spatial model, cannot adequately account for the critical pattern of burning that is characteristic of the region. A reinterpretation of the burning experiments is presented in light of four factors: empirical data; recent developments in patch-mosaic theory; historical evidence on the effects of fire suppression; and data on indigenous burning strategies, all of which suggest a need to reconsider current fire policy.     

基于元胞自动机的城市发展密度模拟

元胞自动机CA越来越多地被用于模拟复杂的城市系统,但这些模拟基本不考虑城市的发展密度。不同的城市发展密度会对城市的形态有很大的影响,有必要将城市的发展密度引进CA的城市模拟中,以获得更好的模拟结果。本文将密度梯度函数引进了CA模型的转换规则中,并定义‘灰度’来反映状态的转换。利用该模型对不同可能的城市发展组合进行了模拟,为城市规划提供了辅助依据。