Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for inelastic response and structural behaviour factors

The objective of this paper is to present ground-motion prediction equations describing constant-ductility inelastic spectral ordinates and structural behaviour factors. These equations are intended for application within the framework of Eurocode 8. Most of the strong-motion data used in the present work is obtained from the ISESD (Internet Site for European Strong-motion Data) databank. Present analysis includes ground motion records from significant Icelandic earthquakes, which are augmented by records obtained from continental Europe and the Middle East. In all cases the selected ground motion records are generated during shallow earthquakes within a distance of 100 km from the recording station. The classification of site conditions in the present work is based on the Eurocode 8 definition.     

A site effect study of the Adapazari basin,Turkey, from strong- and weak-motion data

Approximately 4000 people were killed due to collapse of buildings in downtown Adapazari during the 1999 Izmit, Turkey earthquake (Mw = 7.4). The downtown is located on a deep sedimentary basin, so-called Adapazari basin. We study site effects of the Adapazari basin based on strong- and weak-motion data obtained by a temporary array observation deployed in and around the Adapazari basin after the earthquake. Four moderate-size aftershocks (M4.6–M5.8) are selected in our study. We evaluate the S-wave amplifications in the basin by using the traditional spectral ratio method. The spectral ratios show that the S waves are considerably amplified in the frequency range of 0.5 to about 5 Hz at the basin sites, but are apparently de-amplified at frequencies higher than about 10 Hz. We make a quantitative interpretation of the empirical amplifications based on the S-wave velocity structures at the stiff-soil reference site as well as at the basin sites; these structures were estimated by the microtremor array measurements. Through the interpretation, we confirm that the amplifications at low frequencies are attributed to the thick sedimentary layers in the Adapazari basin and that the apparent de-amplifications at high frequencies are partly due to the reference site response. In addition to the considerable S-wave amplifications, the basin site records show long-period (about 2 sec) later phases after the S-wave arrival; these later phases are basin-transduced surface waves that are originated from the source and transmitted into the basin. The predominant period of these waves apparently depends on the earthquake magnitude. We conclude that heavy damage in downtown Adapazari during the 1999 Izmit earthquake was caused not only by strongly amplified S-waves but also by long-period basin surface waves of long duration.     

Characteristics of strong ground motion data recorded in the Gubbio sedimentary basin (Central Italy)

Various authors, analysing the set of accelerograms recorded at Gubbio Piana (GBP) (central Italy), have demonstrated that strong amplification occurs at this accelerometric station, which is installed within an alluvial basin. In particular, Ambraseys et al. [(2005a), Bull Earthq Eng 3:1–53; (2005b), Bull Earth Eng 3:55–73] observed that the strong motion peaks at GBP greatly exceed the median values predicted by the attenuation relationships they derived for Europe. In this work, we analyse and discuss some characteristics of the ground motion recorded at the GBP station. We show that the ground motion parameters, such as peak-ground acceleration and peak-ground velocity, are strongly influenced by the presence of locally induced surface waves that produce both a lengthening of the significant shaking duration and an increase in the peak values with respect to a nearby bedrock site. The basin-induced surface waves are observed in the three components of motion and their effects on the peak values are particularly evident in the vertical component. In the frequency domain, the energy of the surface waves is mostly restricted to the frequency band 0.4–0.8 Hz for both the horizontal and vertical components. The horizontal and vertical Fourier amplitudes are also very similar, and this indicates that the H/V spectral ratio technique is not applicable to describing the site response due to the propagation of seismic wave in a complex 2D/3D geological structure. Finally, a preliminary polarization analysis shows that the directions of polarization, as well as the degree of elliptical polarization, exhibit a strong variability with time, that may be related to a complex propagation of Love and Rayleigh waves within the basin.     

Analysis of strong earthquake ground motion for prediction of response spectra

Prediction of response spectra for earthquake engineering purposes is considered from a new point of view based on the dislocation theory of earthquakes. It is shown that the traditional scaling of response spectra by the predicted peak acceleration should be limited to the high-frequency end of the spectrum, and that the peak acceleration in the near field is not strongly correlated with earthquake magnitude. The amplitude of the long-period end of response spectrum at source to station distances greater than about 10 source dimensions should be scaled with seismic moment, while for distances less than about one source dimension this amplitude should be proportional to the permanent ground displacement. To reconcile the existing extensive data on seismicity of active regions based on magnitude scale, it is shown that magnitude can be used to determine approximately the seismic moment.     

3-D physical model in strong ground motion numerical simulation： A case study of Kunming basin

Seismic hazard assessment based on urban active faults can provide scientific bases for city planning and projectconstruction,while numerical simulation of strong ground motion is an important method for seismic hazard pre-diction and assessment.A 3-D physical model in conformity with real strata configuration of(mainly)the Quater-nary is a prerequisite to ensure the reliability of the simulation results.In this paper,we give a detailed account ofthe technical scheme and process for creating a 3-D physical model in Kunming basin.The data used are synthe-sized from seismogeological data,borehole data,topographic data,digital elevation mode(DEM)data,seismicexploration results and wave velocity measurements.Stratigraphic division is based mainly on shear wave velocity,with strata sequence taken into consideration.The model construction is finally accomplished with ArcGIS andmany relevant programming techniques via layer-by-layer stacking(in depth direction)of the adjacent mediuminterfaces(meshes).Meanwhile,a database of 3-D physical models is set up,which provides model data and pa-rameters for strong ground motion simulation.Some processing methods and significant issues are also addressedin the paper in accordance with different types of exploration and experimental data.     

A non-parametric wave type based model for real-time prediction of strong ground motion accelerogram

A wave type based method for real-time prediction of strong ground motion (SGM) accelerogram is developed. Real-time prediction of SGM is requested in predictive building control systems to trigger and control actuator systems achieving the goal of reduction of the structural deformations during an on-going earthquake. It is well known that SGM is a classic example of non-stationary stochastic process with temporal variation of both amplitude and frequency content. The developed non-parametric model considers the non-homogeneity of the seismic process which contains different wave types with the individual frequency contents and time-dependency amplitude distribution pattern. Therefore, an important part of the method is to detect dominant seismic wave phases. Prediction of seismic signal is undertaken by applying frequency adaptive windowing approach, which leads to predict the on-coming signal in time window t+Δt based on the measured data in the time window t. Besides use of the frequency adaptive windowing, constant windowing and semi-adaptive windowing approaches are deployed. The results show that use of the adaptive time windows relevant to dominant frequency of the signal will enable the model to catch and predict the most dominant frequencies. Performance of the proposed model is verified by the use of 97 free-field accelerograms, which were applied to train and validate the prediction model. The selected accelerograms were measured above the soil type C and D according Eurocode 8 and their Moment magnitude are ranging between 6.2 and 7.7. The learning capability of the radial basis function Artificial Neural Network is used to reconstruct the SGM accelerogram. The most significant advantage of the proposed model is the concept of wave type based modeling which has the advantage of a conceptual physical modeling of the seismic process. Comparison of the real-time predicted and the observed accelerograms shows a high correlation when the frequency adaptive approach is applied. This paper lays a foundation for more effective use of real-time predictive control systems and potential for future extension in active structural control as well as in real-time seismology.     

Stochastic strong ground motion simulations in sparsely-monitored regions: A validation and sensitivity study on the 13 March 1992 Erzincan (Turkey) earthquake

Stochastic simulations have recently become quite popular for estimating synthetic ground motion time histories. For seismically active regions that are not well-monitored or studied extensively, input parameters of the simulations should be carefully selected as the reliability of the simulation results directly depends on the accuracy of the input parameters. In the first part of this study, 13 March 1992 Erzincan (eastern Turkey) earthquake (Mw=6.6), which is recorded at only three strong ground motion stations, is simulated using the stochastic finite-fault method. The source and regional path parameters for this event are adopted from previously validated studies whereas the local site parameters are derived herein. In the second part of the paper, sensitivity of the simulation results with respect to small changes in selected input seismic parameters is investigated. The parameters for which sensitivities are computed include stress drop, crustal shear-wave quality factor and kappa operator. A change of 20% in stress drop value results in 14% change in PGA, whereas a 20% difference in the Q₀ value causes 17% change in PGA, and a 20% variation in kappa leads to 15% difference in PGA. Numerical experiments presented in this study prove that the ground motion simulations are prone to trade-off between the source, path and site filters. Hence, input models must be implemented carefully for reliable synthetic ground motions.     

强震地面运动的超随机特性研究

简述了几种常用的地震动平稳随机模型，这几种地震动平稳随机模型的功率谱是一组光滑的函数，相应的自相关函数基本上是指数衰减的振荡函数，且很快衰减到零；但是真实地震动的归一化自相关函数则有一较显著的随机噪声项，这个随机噪声的幅值为0．15左右，这就是本文中所说的超随机特性。目前常用的地震动平稳随机模型没有考虑这个随机噪声项及其对结构反应的影响。本文将真实地震动的自相关函数分解为一确定性函数和一随机噪声的叠加，并对自相关函数中的噪声部分进行了分析，得出两条重要性质。本文的研究结果表明地震动加速度时程的平方和(SS)比峰值加速度(PGA)更好地量度了地震地面运动强度。由于归一化自相关函数的随机噪声部分所对应的功率谱的随机波动成分对频率的积分为零，即归一化自相关函数的噪声部分对地震动总功率或平方和的贡献为零，因此自相关函数的随机噪声项对地震动的幅值影响不大，但自相关函数的随机噪声项明显改变了地震动功率谱在频域上的分布特征，因此会对结构反应产生一定的影响。由于篇幅所限详细内容将在下一篇文章中作进一步探讨。     

基于我国强震动数据的地震动持时预测方程

基于2007—2015年间我国数字强震动观测台网记录到的M_W5.0—6.6地震事件中的强震动记录,综合考虑震源、传播路径及场地的影响,采用随机效应回归分析方法建立了适用于中国大陆地区的地震动显著持时预测方程,并与其它地区的预测方程进行了对比分析。结果显示:显著持时随震级和距离的增大而增大,硬土场地的地震动持时整体上略小于软土场地,而且本文给出的地震动显著持时随预测变量的变化趋势与其它研究地区具有一定的相似性。      

Observations and estimation of long-period strong ground motion in the los angeles basin

While the accurate estimation of ground-motion amplitudes across the entire frequency band of engineering interest is not possible at the present time, the excitation and propagation of long-period strong-ground motion can be understood with existing seismological methodology. In the Los Angeles Basin, the long-period strong ground motion excited by the San Fernando earthquake is dominated by the presence of surface waves, whose gross amplitude and frequency content are easily attributable to physical properties of the earthquake source and source-station propagation paths. Observed measures of the long-period strong ground motion of the Kern County earthquake relative to the San Fernando earthquake at two sites in the Los Angeles Basin which recorded both shocks can be predicted with considerable accuracy by a simple earthquake source model. This source model is extrapolated to represent the maximum credible earthquake likely to affect the Los Angeles area, taken to be a repeat of the Fort Tejon (1857) earthquake along the San Andreas fault. The measures of long-period strong ground motion in the Los Angeles Basin estimated for it agree well with the comparable measures of Earthquake A-2, intended to represent the same situation. For the purpose of aseismic design of long-period structures, Earthquake A-2 is a reasonable, if not all inclusive, estimate of the long-period strong ground motion in the Los Angeles Basin generated by a magnitude 8+ earthquake along the San Andreas fault north and east of Los Angeles.     

A study on amplification response of soil ground motion in Shanghai using strong motion records

Introduction A good deal of attention was paid to the amplification response of soil layers under the earthquake waves,especially by the engineering seismologists.     

Horizontal and vertical ground motion prediction equations derived from the Italian Accelerometric Archive (ITACA)

A set of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) for the Italian territory is proposed, exploiting a new strong-motion data set become available since July 2007 through the Italian Accelerometric Archive (ITACA). The data set is composed by 561 three-component waveforms from 107 earthquakes with moment magnitude in the range 4.0–6.9, occurred in Italy from 1972 to 2007 and recorded by 206 stations at distances up to 100 km. The functional form used to derive GMPEs in Italy (Sabetta and Pugliese in Bull Seismol Soc Am 86(2):337–352, 1996) has been modified introducing a quadratic term for magnitude and a magnitude-dependent geometrical spreading. The coefficients for the prediction of horizontal and vertical peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and 5% damped acceleration response spectra are evaluated. This paper illustrates the new data set, the regression analysis and the comparisons with recently derived GMPEs in Europe and in the Next Generation Attenuation of Ground Motions (NGA) Project.     

北京盆地结构对长周期地震动反应谱的影响

建立了北京盆地含起伏地形的地下介质三维速度结构模型, 以有限差分方法对盆地内的3次地震动进行了数值模拟． 计算了地表加速度反应谱, 论证了反应谱的有效周期范围, 从而获得了盆地结构对长周期段反应谱的平均放大系数, 并对不同周期时反应谱的平均放大系数进行了分区, 为今后城市的合理规划和长周期建筑物的建设提供了抗震设防参考． 最后对反应谱平均放大系数与等效沉积物厚度之间的关系进行了回归, 得出了反应谱放大系数随沉积物厚度增大而增强, 以及随周期增大而减弱等结论．      

长周期地震动三维有限元数值模拟方法

采用数值方法对长周期地震动进行模拟已成为当前强地面运动预测的研究方向之一。本文提出了一种有限元并行计算的高效地震动数值模拟方法,可以同时考虑震源、传播途径和场地条件对地震动的影响,并根据昆明地区未来可能发生的设定地震对昆明市的影响地震动进行了预测。这一方法可以应用于国内已探测的发震活断层进行地震危害性评价工作。     

断层破裂面倾角变化对断陷盆地强地面运动的影响

地震事件中,断层破裂面的倾角大小直接影响到地表强地震动的分布状态,尤其在断陷盆地中,强地面运动特征还可能受到盆地结构及盆地内多条围限断层的影响.本文模拟了银川断陷盆地内的活动断层——银川隐伏断层南段发生Mw6.5特征地震时,断层破裂面倾角在30°~85°范围内变化时引起的强地面运动,探讨了断层破裂面倾角变化对盆地内强地面运动分布特征和强度的影响.结果表明:破裂面倾角较缓时,银川盆地内的强地面运动分布区域不仅仅决定于发震断层的产状,同时还受到断层上盘距离最近的芦花台断层的影响,致使强地面运动集中于两条断层所围限的区域;随着发震断层破裂面的倾角逐渐增大,强地面运动以发震断层产状的影响为主,强震集中区向发震断层靠近并分布于发震断层上盘,且沿断层走向方向出现了强度不同的地震动反射区;尤其是发震断层破裂面倾角接近垂直时,受银川盆地"西陡东缓"结构和盆地西边界贺兰山东麓断裂反射作用的影响,竖向地震动反射区强度在远离发震断层的西北方向明显增大,致使芦花台断层附近区域与银川断层南段上盘区域成为地震发生时可能遭受震害最严重的地区.本文探讨结果提醒我们在类似区域的活动断层附近进行建(构)筑规划和地震工程设计时,有必要考虑发震断层破裂面倾角大小和盆地内其它断层构造的共同影响,综合评价潜在地震对盆地内近断层地表及各类建(构)筑物的危害性.     

Three-dimensional simulations of strong ground motion in the Shidian basin based upon the spectral-element method

The strong motion of a small long and narrow basin caused by a moderate scenario earthquake is simulated by using the spectral-element method and the parallel computing technique.A total of five different geometrical profiles within the basin are used to analyze the generation and propagation of surface waves and their relation to the basin structures in both the time and frequency domain.The amplification effects are analyzed by the distribution of peak ground velocity(PGV)and cumulative kinetic energy(Ek) in the basin.The results show that in the 3D basin,the excitation of the fundamental and higher surface wave modes are similar to that of the 2D model.Small bowls in the basin have great influence on the amplification and distribution of strong ground motion,due to their lateral resonances when the wavelengths of the lateral surface waves are comparable to the size of the bowls.Obvious basin edge effects can be seen at the basin edge closer to the source for constructive interference between direct body waves and the basin-induced surface waves.The Ek distribution maps show very large values in small bowls and some corners in the basin due to the interference of waves propagating in different directions.A high impedance contrast model can excite more surface wave modes,resulting in longer shaking durations as well as more complex seismograms and PGV and Ek distributions.     

Simulating strong ground motion with the `k -2 ' kinematic source model: An application to the seismic hazard in the Erzincan basin, Turkey

We present a seismic hazard application of a kinematic broad-bandrupture model. This model is based on the k-square dislocation distribution concept (Herrero and Bernard, 1994).Synthetic seismograms are calculated in the far-field approximation with alayered velocity medium for the 13 March 1992 Erzincan earthquake.With a parametrization of the source constrained by other studies,the far-field contribution correctly fits the recorded strong ground motion, which presents a 0.5 to 2 Hz dominant frequency range.As the k-square model is particularly well adapted to synthetize realistic strong-motion at short distances from the fault,it is a reliable tool for calculating seismic hazard maps around active faults. We thus present a synthetic peak ground acceleration map associatedwith the 13 March 1992 activated fault, for a 60 km × 60 km regionaround the epicenter taking into account a smoothed velocity structure ofthe basin in agreement with the absence of significant site effects related to1D resonance deduced from the aftershock records study.This map is compared with several post seismic reports: macroseismicintensities, detailed distribution of damage, and soil cracking andliquefaction. Our model shows that the values of the peak acceleration andvelocity can explain the dominant spatial distributionof these effects, which concentrates in a narrow band along theactivated segment fault, and in particular at its southernextremity. These results enable us to present such maps forhypothetical future earthquake ruptures, located on the major visible orinferred active fault segments in and around the basin. The effects ofthese potential sources are analyzed in relation to the 1992 eventeffects in order to eliminate unknown site responses. We show that thesouthern part of the basin is particularly exposed because of thepresence of strike-slip faults,and that the western part of the basin would suffer a significantlyhigher strong motion levelthan during the 1992 event with the activation of moderate sizednormal faults evidenced on thesouthwestern edge of the basin.     

Empirical equations for the prediction of the equivalent number of cycles of earthquake ground motion

Estimates of the number of cycles of ground motion expected from earthquake scenarios are required for the assessment of liquefaction hazard and the hazard of seismically induced landslides. There are currently very few equations available for the prediction of this parameter despite its importance for several geotechnical applications. In this study, the strong-motion database assembled in the Next Generation of Attenuation (NGA) project is used to derive equations for two different measures of the effective numbers of cycles of ground motion as functions of magnitude, distance, and site classification. There are several different measures of the numbers of cycles in an accelerogram but the definition adopted in this study is that based on rainflow-counting, which is applied with both absolute and relative amplitude thresholds.     

新疆皮山地区地震动衰减关系研究

利用2015年7月3日皮山M_S6.5地震序列的波形资料,采用微遗传算法反演得到震源区的5个介质参数,即应力降Δσ为75.95bars,品质因子Q_0为186.33,η值为0.26,几何衰减分段点R_1为72.18km,R_2为139.70km;并由此计算得到的傅氏谱再配合随机相位谱,进而得到地震动时程,建立了震源区地震动衰减关系。由于缺乏强震记录,本文还收集了2008年10月5日乌恰M_S6.9地震、2008年10月6日阿克陶M_S6.2地震、2012年3月9日洛浦M_S6.0地震的强震数据,将计算结果与经验性衰减关系以及3次强震记录进行比较后发现,皮山地震、洛浦地震的强震数据普遍高于经验性衰减关系,乌恰地震的强震数据与俞言祥等文中的衰减关系吻合较好,在远场低于本文的计算结果。