Extreme waves induced by cyclone Nargis at Myanmar coast: numerical modeling versus satellite observations

Natural Hazards - The deltaic coast of Myanmar was severely hit by tropical cyclone Nargis in May 2008. In the present study, a top-down numerical simulation approach using the Weather Research and...     

Correction to: Extreme waves induced by cyclone Nargis at Myanmar coast: numerical modeling versus satellite observations

Natural Hazards - A correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04687-9     

The 27 April 1975 Kitimat,British Columbia,submarine landslide tsunami: a comparison of modeling approaches

We present numerical simulations of the April 27, 1975, landslide event in the northern extreme of Kitimat Arm, British Columbia. The event caused a tsunami with an estimated wave height of 8.2 m at Kitimat First Nations Settlement and 6.1 m at Clio Bay, at the northern and southern ends of Kitimat Arm, respectively. We use the nonhydrostatic model NHWAVE to perform a series of numerical experiments with different slide configurations and with two approaches to modeling the slide motion: a solid slide with motion controlled by a basal Coulomb friction and a depth-integrated numerical slide based on Newtonian viscous flow. Numerical tests show that both models are capable of reproducing observations of the event if an adequate representation of slide geometry is used. We further show that comparable results are obtained using estimates of either Coulomb friction angle or slide viscosity that are within reasonable ranges of values found in previous literature.     

Preliminary estimation of the tsunami hazards associated with the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean

We present a preliminary estimation of tsunami hazard associated with the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) at the northwestern Indian Ocean. Makran is one of the two main tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean, which has produced some tsunamis in the past. Northwestern Indian Ocean remains one of the least studied regions in the world in terms of tsunami hazard assessment. Hence, a scenario-based method is employed to provide an estimation of tsunami hazard in this region for the first time. The numerical modeling of tsunami is verified using historical observations of the 1945 Makran tsunami. Then, a number of tsunamis each resulting from a 1945-type earthquake (M _w 8.1) and spaced evenly along the MSZ are simulated. The results indicate that by moving a 1945-type earthquake along the MSZ, the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan will experience the largest waves with heights of between 5 and 7 m, depending on the location of the source. The tsunami will reach a height of about 5 m and 2 m in northern coast of Oman and eastern coast of the United Arab Emirates, respectively.     

Submarine landslides at the eastern Sunda margin: observations and tsunami impact assessment

Our analysis of new bathymetric data reveals six submarine landslides at the eastern Sunda margin between central Java and Sumba Island, Indonesia. Their volumes range between 1 km3 in the Java fore-arc basin up to 20 km3 at the trench off Sumba and Sumbawa. We estimate the potential hazard of each event by modeling the corresponding tsunami and its run-up on nearby coasts. Four slides are situated remarkably close to the epicenter of the 1977 tsunamigenic Sumba M _w  = 8.3 earthquake. However, comparison of documented tsunami run-up heights and arrival times with our modeling results neither allows us to confirm nor can we falsify the hypothesis that the earthquake triggered these submarine landslides.     

Estimation of urban mixed layer height in Zanjan using LIDAR observations and numerical modeling

Air pollution predictions often require the height of atmospheric mixed layer in time especially in big cities. Here, the variation of the height of this layer is estimated from direct measurements and also from a numerical forecast model with a high resolution boundary layer scheme. The height of the daytime mixed layer for the city of Zanjan (48.5°N, 36.7°E, 1700m above sea level) is measured using a LIDAR (532 nm) system, which works based on aerosols scattering of laser light. The mixed layer height (z _i ) for Zanjan city, well above mean sea level compared to other major cities in the world, is found to be between 1.4 km typically in spring and 2.2 km in summer, for synoptic calm conditions. Also, the MM5 forecast model with a proper boundary layer scheme (MRF) is used to estimate z _i which shows rather good agreement with direct observations using the LIDAR system. The entrainment zone of the mixed layer was also found to undergo some occasional temporal growth that may be attributed to shear instability that led to more mixed layer growth.     

Modeling the 2004 Sumatra tsunami at Seychelles Islands: site-effect analysis and comparison with observations

The M _w = 9.1 mega-thrust Sumatra–Andaman earthquake that occurred on December 26, 2004, was followed by a devastating tsunami that killed hundreds of thousands of people and caused catastrophic effects on human settlements and environments along many coasts of the Indian Ocean, where even countries very far from the source were affected. One of these cases is represented by the Republic of Seychelles, where the tsunami reached the region about 7 h after the earthquake and produced relevant damages, despite the country was more than 4,500 km far from the seismic source. In the present work, we present and discuss a study of the 2004 Sumatra tsunami by means of numerical simulations with the attention focused on the effects observed at the Seychelles Archipelago, a region never previously investigated with this approach. The case is interesting since these islands lay on a very shallow oceanic platform with steep slopes so as the ocean depth changes from thousands to few tens of meters over short distances, with significant effects on the tsunami propagation features: the waves are strongly refracted by the oceanic platform and the tsunami signal is modified by the introduction of additional frequencies. The study is used also to validate the UBO-TSUFD numerical code on a real tsunami event in the far field, and the results are compared with the available observations, i.e., the sea level time series recorded at the Pointe La Rue station, Mahé Island, and run-up measurements and inundation lines surveyed few weeks after the tsunami at Praslin Island, where the tsunami hit during low tide. Synthetic results are found in good agreement with observations, even though some of the observations remain not fully solved. Moreover, simulations have been run in high-tide condition since the 2004 Sumatra tsunami hitting at high tide can be taken as the worst-case scenario for the Seychelles islands and used for tsunami hazard and risk assessments.     

Numerical modeling of the morphological change in Lhok Nga, west Banda Aceh, during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami: understanding tsunami deposits using a forward modeling method

A coupled hydrostatic and morph-dynamic model COMCOT-SED was used to investigate the morphological change in Lhok Nga bay during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, and the coupled model predicted the thickness of tsunami deposits in agreement with the measured ones. The relationship between the characteristics of tsunami deposit and flow hydrodynamics was discussed in details. Phenomena such as landward thinning in deposit thickness, landward fining in grain size, and fining upwards in grain size are commonly used to identify tsunami deposits and were examined in this case study. We also discussed the effects of sediment supplies and the constraints that can be put on the earthquake parameters using the information derived from tsunami deposits. This study shows that the model presented in this paper is capable of simulating extreme tsunami events (tsunami wave height ~30?m) in a large domain and that forward models of tsunami sediment transport can be a promising tool to help tsunami geologists understand tsunami deposits.     

Tsunami risk for Western Canada and numerical modelling of the Cascadia fault tsunami

The paper deals with the analysis of tsunami risks for Western Canada and the numerical modelling of a potential tsunami which could affect the region and generate significant damage to the western Canadian coastline. Following a review of the seismic risk and historical tsunamis which occurred along the western Canadian coastline, the authors concluded that this region is highly vulnerable should a major tsunami occur. Consequently, the authors conducted a study on the numerical modelling of a possible tsunami generated by movement along the Cascadia fault, which is located offshore British Columbia. The results of the model outline the significance and extent of the coastal flooding risk associated with such a rare, but destructive phenomenon. The potential for inundation of the low-lying areas around the coastline of Vancouver Island and in and around the City of Vancouver was found to be high. A number of recommendations and conclusions focusing on the results of the numerical simulation are included.     

Simushir earthquakes and tsunami of November 15, 2006, and January 13, 2007

The earthquakes and tsunami on November 15, 2006 and January 13, 2007, near Simushir Island are described. Long-term and short-term precursors of the phenomena are discussed. A joint analysis of the seismological and geodetic data provided reliable interpretation of the source mechanisms of the earthquakes. The actions of the tsunami warning personnel are analyzed. Extensive experimental data on the tsunami occurrence at different sites of the Pacific Ocean are presented. The tsunami of November 15, 2006, was numerically modeled using coseismic vertical displacements of the ocean bottom calculated from GPS data. The observed and calculated data on the maximal tsunami run up are compared.     

Storm waves in the Canadian Atlantic: A numerical simulation

The Grand Banks and the Scotian Shelf regions of the Canadian Atlantic often experience strong winds and high waves associated with the passage of intense storms during the winter months of December to March. These storm waves are identified as a major hazard to shipping, offshore exploration and other marine activities in eastern Canada.In this study, an operational spectral ocean wave model has been used to simulate sea-states associated with selected storm events in the Canadian Atlantic. The wave model operates on a grid (with grid spacing of about 111 km) which covers a major portion of the north Atlantic. A nested fine grid (with grid spacing of about 37 km) has been designed which covers the shelf regions of the Canadian Atlantic. The model employs deep-water physics over the coarse grid while over the fine grid shallow-water processes as represented by wave refraction, wave shoaling, bottom friction and wave number scaling are included. The wave model also includes, as an optional package, the third-generation source terms as represented by the nonlinear wave-wave interaction terms.For two selected storm events, the model generated sea-states are evaluated against available buoy data as well as against hand analyzed operational wave height charts over the northwest Atlantic. The evaluation shows that the various versions of the model can simulate the observed sea-states, reasonably well. The utility of the wave model in providing numerical guidance for offshore activities is briefly discussed.     

Hydraulic and numerical study on the generation of a subaqueous landslide-induced tsunami along the coast

By carrying out the hydraulic experiments in a one-dimensional open channel and two-dimensional basin, we clarified the process of how a landslide on a uniform slope causes the generation of a tsunami. The effect of the interactive force that occurs between the debris flow layer and the tsunami is significant in the generation of a tsunami. The continuous flow of the debris into the water makes the wave period of the tsunami short. The present experiments apply numerical simulation using the two-layer model with shear stress models on the bottom and interface, and the results are compared. The simulated debris flow shows good agreement with the measured results and ensures the rushing process into the water. We propose that the model use a Manning coefficient of 0.01 for the smooth slope and 0.015 for the rough slope, and a horizontal viscosity of 0.01 m²/s for the landslide; an interactive force of 0.2 for each layer is recommended. The dispersion effect should be included in the numerical model for the propagation from the shore.     

The tsunami on Sakhalin on August 2, 2007: Mareograph evidence and numerical simulation

Instrumental data on the tsunami registration on Sakhalin and Hokkaido islands are presented. The numerical simulation of the tsunami propagation in the Tatar Strait was performed. The results of the calculations are in satisfactory agreement with the observed data.