全省农业气候可行性论证工作调研报告(摘要)

通过调研,对江西省气象部门1996年以来组织开展的农业气候可行性论证工作进行了全面系统的总结,归纳出7方面的成绩(促进了在农业科学决策中尊重气候规律,减少了不必要的损失;促进了农产品区域化布局和集中生产;促进了按资源特点和地方特色发展农业支柱产业;帮助科学选择了一批农业开发基地;帮助选择了若干因地制宜的农业品种,促进了优质、高产、高效农业的发展;帮助优化了一批种植业结构模式;全省的农业气候论证工作已逐步走向规范化、制度化)和5方面的不足,并对今后各级政府、农业生产者、气象工作者和农业工作者进一步加强联系和协作,共同搞好农业气候可行性论证工作提出了若干建议(严格按有关法律法规办事,坚持立项中必须进行气候可行性论证;加强对气候可行性论证工作的领导,成立相应机构;明确和搞好当前农业气候可行性论证的重点工作;各级气象部门应主动承担责任,配合政府部门做好工作;各涉农部门应加强协调,共同做好农业气候可行性论证工作).     

江西省农业气候可行性论证工作进展与建议

对江西省气象部门1996年以来组织开展的农业气候可行性论证工作进行了全面总结,归纳出7个方面的成绩和5个方面的不足,并对今后各级政府、农业工作者、气象工作者和农业生产者进一步加强联系和协作,共同搞好农业气候可行性论证工作提出了若干建议。     

天门市农业产业结构调整中的气候问题初探

为了给地方各级党委政府因地制宜开展农业产业结构提供气候依据，根据近几年来天门市农业产业结构调整的实践，提出了开发项目引进必须以农业气候论证为依据、新品种引进必须以农业气候诊断为前提、农业产业结构调整必须以农业气候区划为基础的观点。     

四川省第三次农业气候区划简介

通过对第三次农业气候区划与第一次、第二次农业气候区划的变化特点的介绍，以及第三次农业气候区划主要技术方法的介绍，阐明了四川省第三次农业气候区划成果的应用，对于四川省的农业气候区划工作的进一步开展有一定的参考作用。     

3S技术在农业气候论证中的应用研究

以江西省会昌县实施烟稻轮作为实例，阐述了应用3S技术进行烟稻轮作农业气候论证的技术方法，并根据气候论证结果提出了会昌县不同小气候地域的单、双季水稻田改制为烟稻轮作的建议，该建议已被当地政府采纳。该方法同样可用于其它农作物种植的气候论证。     

北京地区优质板栗细网格农业气候区划

气候资源是农业自然资源的重要组成部分，开展农业气候区划就是充分利用气候资源，发挥区域气候优势，以达到趋利避害的目的。20世纪50、60年代我国就已开展了农业气候区划工作。70、80年代曾进行过大规模的气候资源调查和农业气候区划，但所     

粮食高产稳产农业气候对策研究

本文根据近年来的有关农业气象试验、农业气候区划、种植业制度等的研究,对地处我省浙北商品粮基地的嘉兴市粮食高产、稳产农业气候适应性和对策,作一初步论证。     

细网格格点农业气候资源推算原理和方法

根据农业气候资源的深入开发和区划细划工作的需要，研究了非增坦地形下农业气候资源随经度，纬度，海拔高度和小地形参数的变化规律，给出了细网格格点资源的推算方法，为农业气候资源的充分开发利用提供了依据。     

农业气候调查和区划会议召开

第二次全国气象部门农业气候资源调查和农业气候区划会议于1981年9月12日在武汉市召开,会期7天。出席这次会议的有各省、市、自治区气象局主管科教工作的领导同志、农业气候区划办公室的负责同志、主持农业气候资源调查和区划技术工作的同志和部分地区气象局、县气象站的代表。国家农委区划办,湖北省农委区划办和有关科研部门、高等院校的代表也应邀到会。 会议开始,由中央气象局副局长戈锐同志对两年来全国气象部门的农业气候资源调查和区划工作进行了总结。国家农委区划办张巧铃同志作了发言,肯定了气象部门农业气候资源调查和农业气候区划工作取     

农业气候区划细化在农业产业结构调整中的作用

农业产业结构调整，是国家发展农业经济，提高农民收入，实现农村稳定的重大战略决策。而农业产业结构调整的是科学技术，气象科技则是这场农业革命的排头兵。它为农业产业结构调整中相关项目的气候适应性论证提供第一手资料。气象部门进行气候区划细化，就是将农业气候区划成果转变为生产力，为农业产业结构调整作出贡献的具体工作。     

Climate-smart agriculture: perspectives and framings

This paper offers a systematic analysis of the concepts and contexts that frame the climate-smart agriculture (CSA) discourse in the academic and policy literature. Documents (n?=?113) related to CSA and published in peer-reviewed journals, books, working papers, and scientific reports from 2004 to 2016 were reviewed. Three key trends emerged from the analysis: studies are biased towards global policy agendas; research focuses on scientific and technical issues; and the integration of mitigation, adaptation, and food security (the three pillars of CSA) is becoming a popular scholarly solution. Findings suggest that CSA is a fairly new concept used to describe a range of adaptation and mitigation practices without a specific set of criteria. Although CSA is often framed around the three pillars, the underlying issues constructing the discourse differ at global, developing, and developed country scales. Although there is increasing research on developing countries, particularly in relation to how CSA can transform smallholder agriculture, there is a paucity of research documenting the experiences from developed countries. The findings suggest that research on CSA needs to move beyond solely focussing on scientific approaches and only in certain geographical contexts. If CSA is to be applicable for farmers across the globe, then cross-disciplinary research that is underpinned by broad socio-economic and political contexts is essential to understand how differences in narratives might affect implementation on-the-ground in both developing and developed countries.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Although policy makers are increasingly supportive of the climate-smart agriculture (CSA) approach, the rhetoric has largely been developed on the basis of scientific and technical arguments. The political implications of varying perspectives have resulted in a growing divide between how developing and developed countries frame solutions to the impacts of climate change on agriculture under the 2015 Paris Agreement. Different framings are part of the explanation for why the scope of CSA is being rethought, with the scientific community redirecting attention to seeking a separate work programme under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The current policy framing of CSA will give no new policy direction unless it grounds itself in the smallholder farmer and civil society contexts.     

Maladaptive outcomes of climate insurance in agriculture

Agricultural insurance programs are currently being championed by international donors in many developing countries. They are acclaimed as promising instruments for coping with climate risk. However, research on their impacts has mainly focused on economic considerations. Studies on broader social and ecological consequences are sparse and have produced ambiguous and inconclusive results. We address this knowledge deficit by (a) advocating for a holistic view of social-ecological systems and vulnerability when considering insurance impacts; (b) offering a systematic overview highlighting the potential beneficial and adverse effects of ‘climate insurance’ in agriculture, particularly where programs target intensifying agricultural production; and (c) suggesting preliminary principles for avoiding maladaptive outcomes, including specific recommendations for designing appropriate impact studies and insurance programs. Our synopsis brings together scientific knowledge generated in both developing and developed countries, demonstrating that agricultural insurance programs shape land-use decisions and may generate serious economic, social, and ecological consequences. If insurance is to be an appropriate tool for mitigating the impacts of climate change, it needs to be carefully developed with specific local social-ecological contexts and existing risk coping strategies in mind. Otherwise, it is liable to create long-term maladaptive outcomes and undermine the ability of these systems to reduce vulnerability.     

Global change and the intensification of agriculture in the tropics

Bridging understanding of local environmental change with regional and global patterns of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) remains a key goal and challenge for our understanding of global environmental change. This meta-analysis attempts to bridge local and regional scales of LUCC by demonstrating the ways in which previously published case studies can be compared and used for a broader regional synthesis in the tropics. In addition to providing results from a meta-analysis, this paper suggests ways to make future case studies more widely comparable.     

Greenhouse gas emissions from Mediterranean agriculture: Evidence of unbalanced research efforts and knowledge gaps

Designing effective mitigation policies for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture requires understanding the mechanisms by which management practices affect emissions in different agroclimatic conditions. Agricultural GHG emissions and carbon sequestration potentials have been extensively studied in the Mediterranean biome, which is a biodiversity hot spot that is highly vulnerable to environmental changes. However, the absolute magnitude of GHG emissions and the extent to which research efforts match these emissions in each production system, are unknown. Here, we estimated GHG emissions and potential carbon sinks associated with crop and livestock production systems in the Mediterranean biome, covering 31 countries and assessing approximately 10,000 emission items. The results were then combined with a bibliometric assessment of 797 research publications to compare emissions estimates obtained with research efforts for each of the studied items. Although the magnitude of GHG emissions from crop production and the associated carbon sequestration potential (261 Tg CO₂eq yr⁻¹) were nearly half of those from livestock production (367 Tg CO₂eq yr⁻¹), mitigation research efforts were largely focused on the former. As a result, the relative research intensity, which relates the number of publications to the magnitude of emissions, is nearly one order of magnitude higher for crop production than for livestock production (2.6 and 0.4 papers Tg CO₂eq⁻¹, respectively). Moreover, this mismatch is even higher when crop and livestock types are studied separately, which indicates major research gaps associated with grassland and many strategic crop types, such as fruit tree orchards, fiber crops, roots and tubers. Most life cycle assessment studies do not consider carbon sequestration, although this single process has the highest magnitude in terms of annual CO₂eq. In addition, these studies employ Tier 1 IPCC factors, which are not suited for use in Mediterranean environments. Our analytical results show that a strategic plan is required to extend on-site field GHG measurements to the Mediterranean biome. Such a plan needs to be cocreated among stakeholders and should be based on refocusing research efforts to GHG balance components that have been afforded less attention. In addition, the outcomes of Mediterranean field studies should be integrated into life cycle assessment-based carbon footprint analyses in order to avoid misleading conclusions.     

The implications of ignoring smallholder agriculture in climate-financed forestry projects: empirical evidence from two REDD+ pilot projects

ABSTRACT

Changes in agricultural practices can play a pivotal role in climate change mitigation by reducing the need for land use change as one of the biggest sources of GHG emissions, and by enabling carbon sequestration in farmers’ fields. Expansion of smallholder and commercial agriculture is often one of the main driving forces behind deforestation and forest degradation. However, mitigation programmes such as REDD+ are geared towards conservation efforts in the forestry sector without prominently taking into account smallholder agricultural interests in project design and implementation. REDD+ projects often build on existing re- and afforestation projects without major changes in their principles, interests and assumptions. Informed by case study research and interviews with national and international experts, we illustrate with examples from Ethiopia and Indonesia how REDD+ projects are implemented, how they fail to adequately incorporate the demands of smallholder farmers and how this leads to a loss of livelihoods and diminishing interest in participating in REDD+ by local farming communities. The study shows how the conservation-based benefits and insecure funding base in REDD+ projects do not compensate for the contraction in livelihoods from agriculture. Combined with exclusive benefit-sharing mechanisms, this results in an increased pressure on forest resources, diverging from the principal objective of REDD+. We note a gap between the REDD+ narratives at international level (i.e. coupling development with a climate agenda) and the livelihood interests of farming communities on the ground. We argue that without incorporating agricultural interests and a review of financial incentives in the design of future climate finance mechanisms, objectives of both livelihood improvements and GHG emission reductions will be missed.

Key policy insights

• REDD+ is positioned as a promising tool to meet climate, conservation and development targets. However, these expectations are not being met in practice as the interests of smallholder farmers are poorly addressed.

• REDD+ policy developers and implementers need more focus on understanding the interests and dynamics of smallholder agriculturalists to enable inclusive, realistic and long-lasting projects.

• For REDD+ to succeed, funders need to consider how to better ensure long-term livelihood security for farming communities.

     

山东省设施农业生产季连阴天时空演变特征及其影响

利用山东省59个国家级气象观测站1961—2018年逐日日照时数及32个设施农业小气候观测站2008—2018年逐日气温观测资料,采用线性回归法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法及反距离权重插值法等分析了设施农业生产季连阴天时空分布和变化规律及其对设施内气温条件的影响。结果表明,时间上,过去58 a山东省连阴天年总发生次数和总连阴天数分别以1.7次·a-1和6.5 d·a-1的趋势增加,且年总发生次数在1999年发生突变;空间上,过去58 a连阴天总发生次数和总连阴天数均呈“东北—西南”向增多分布,聊城和德州地区的增加较其他区域更为明显,单站年发生次数和连阴天数增加超过0.06次·a-1和0.2 d·a-1,且变化趋势在聊城等15个和13个站点通过显著性水平为0.05的显著性检验;随着连阴天数增加,设施内气温降温幅度会增大;相同连阴天数时,平均气温和最低气温降幅春秋季大于冬季,分析其原因可能是春秋季基础温度高于冬季,从而更容易引起温度的剧烈变化所导致。研究结果可为有关部门研究设施农业种植布局和指导设施农业生产及防灾减灾提供理论支持。     

河西走廊东部一次霜冻天气过程成因及其对农业的影响

2016年5月15日清晨河西走廊东部发生区域性强霜冻天气,对农林业生产造成了2004年以来最为严重的灾害。本文利用实时MICAPS常规观测资料、物理量场和河西走廊东部区域内6个国家自动气象观测站和93个区域气象站观测资料,对这次冻害天气过程的天气学成因进行分析,在此基础上分析了霜冻对农业的影响。结果表明强冷空气爆发是造成冻害的直接原因;0 cm地面温度和气温≤0 ℃持续时间长,导致农林作物深度冻伤;前期气温偏高使得农林作物发育期提前,加之霜冻出现时间偏迟,农林作物抵抗冻害的能力明显下降,冻害影响加重;冻害发生后,温度急剧上升、湿度迅速减小,作物水分强烈蒸腾,作物细胞失去受损,导致受灾程度加重。     

1962—2017年辽宁省设施农业生长季寡照灾害时空特征及影响因素

利用辽宁省28个气象站日照时数观测数据,采用Fortran语言自动识别技术和统计诊断分析方法,以设施黄瓜和茄子为例,分析了1962-2017年辽宁省设施农业生长季寡照灾害发生频数的时空变化特征。结果表明：气候态下,辽宁省设施黄瓜和茄子轻度寡照灾害发生频数占总发生频数的百分比高达96.1%,中度寡照灾害发生频数仅占总发生频数的3.9%,且近56 a没有发生重度寡照灾害。轻度寡照灾害发生频数呈经向型分布,辽宁西部地区最少,辽宁北部和辽宁东部地区最多;11月发生频数最多,2月和3月最少。轻度寡照灾害发生频数空间上阜新东部和朝阳东部增加趋势最大,时间上气候倾向率为0.68次·（10 a）^-1,并且在1999年前后发生了显著的年代际突变。轻度寡照灾害发生频数与同期风速呈显著负相关,与相对湿度和降水日数呈显著正相关。风速和降水日数对辽宁大部地区寡照灾害发生频数的线性增加影响显著,相对湿度则对辽宁局部地区的线性增加影响显著。1962年以来,辽宁省设施黄瓜和茄子最易发生轻度寡照灾害,且发生频数在时间和空间上均呈显著增加趋势。     

近50年登陆我国热带气旋时空特征及对农业影响研究综述

文章回顾并总结了近50年登陆我国热带气旋时空特征,并基于农业气象观测资料和部门数据信息初步探讨了登陆我国热带气旋对农业影响的时空特征。近50年登陆我国热带气旋登陆区域呈现出更为集中的趋势,年平均登陆强度、强台风数量均呈增加趋势;登陆频次华南呈减少趋势,华东则变化不明显;北上热带气旋略有上升趋势。我国受热带气旋影响地区的热带气旋降水大部呈波动下降的趋势;热带气旋平均风速最大值在全国呈现降低趋势。热带气旋暴雨和大风对农业的影响主要造成农田洪涝灾害、“雨洗禾花”、水土流失和耕地质量下降、作物倒伏和机械损伤等,其中农田洪涝灾害最重。我国农业生产受热带气旋影响存在较明显时空特征。秋季主要受影响区域为华南、江南东南部,大宗作物中晚稻受影响最大。盛夏受影响区域更为广泛,华南南部和东部、江南东部、江淮东部等地沿海受影响最重,南方受影响较大的大宗作物是早稻,其次为晚稻和一季稻等;盛夏季节热带气旋在带来暴雨洪涝和大风灾害的同时,也减少了南方盛夏季节性高温和干旱的发生;盛夏北上热带气旋因其带来的充沛降水对农业影响总体利大于弊。从农业生产防灾减灾的长效机制角度,在大数据基础上深入研究热带气旋对我国农业影响时空分布规律,积极发展避灾农业相关技术,是未来工作的重要方面。     

Resource limitations in Sahelian agriculture

In general, Africa has poor soils and unfavorable climates for agriculture. This is specially so in the Sahel of West Africa. Moreover, poor infrastructure means that fertilizer prices are higher in the Sahel than in Europe. Sahelian farmers have few incentives to maintain, let alone improve output. Nonetheless, the results of field experiments show that there are methods by which they could do this, in particular, by improving soil organic matter status, since this is often the principal way in which N, P and K are held in the soil. In the general absence of good policies to encourage fertility improvement, the Lomé workshop set goals for national fertilizer plans.