汶川地震汉源县城高烈度异常区基岩地震动输入

合理的地震动输入是定量解释震害和烈度异常的基础.以汉源老县城震害为评价基准,确定了汉源老县城高烈度异常区的汶川地震基岩地震动输入.基于汉源老县城周边的九襄、清溪、宜东和乌斯河4个强震台站记录,采用LSSRLI-1程序反演给出了各自台站的水平向基岩地震动;选取汉源县城典型场地,利用LSSRLI-1程序计算给出了不同强震台站基岩地震动作用下的场地地表加速度时程和反应谱,以最可能引起汉源老县城震害的强震台站基岩地震动作为汉源县城的基岩地震动输入.研究结果表明:九襄台站反演的基岩地震动最可能反映汶川地震时汉源老县城的基岩地震动特性,因而用九襄台站的基岩地震动作为汉源老县城的地震动输入解释汉源县城高烈度异常现象是合理的.本文的研究思路为定量解释震害的地震动输入确定提供了重要参考.     

根据烈度分布确定华北历史地震破裂区的经验准则及其应用

地震破裂区是地震时沿发震断裂带的同震错动面或破裂面在地表的垂直投影区域,指示了震源断层/破裂的位置与尺度。确定过去长期的强震/大地震破裂区是鉴别地震空区、研究与预测强震危险性的重要基础。对于现代强震,破裂区可运用多种现代技术方法确定,但对于历史强震,破裂区确定的方法需要探索与发展。以华北地区为例,研究利用烈度/等震线资料、结合地震构造与震区地表地质环境等信息确定历史强震破裂区的方法,并开展应用试验。结果表明:研究区现代地震破裂区延伸的烈度区间与极震区烈度、震区环境之间存在密切关系,基于这种关系建立了2条经验准则,可分别用于根据烈度分布确定华北2类震区环境(基岩区和厚层第四纪松散堆积覆盖区)历史强震破裂区的位置与延伸。文中还提出通过综合地震构造、现代小震/余震分布等信息,辅助确定历史强震破裂区横向宽度的思路与途径。作为应用试验,文中确定了5次历史地震的破裂区,结果表明本文发展的经验准则及相应方法适用于华北地区历史强震破裂区的确定。     

地面建筑倾倒方向与强震地面运动

本文通过对1976年唐山地震及其7.1级强余震宏观现象的分析,指出强震引起地面运动及建筑物的倒塌具有一定的优势方向。但同一地区不同强震引起的地面运动及建筑物的倒塌方向常不相同。发现强震高烈度区存在许多震害轻重相间的异常条带,其延伸方向大体上与地震断层平行。这种规律,给地震危险区内的各类工程、土木建筑的抗震设计提供了一些新的依据。      

大渡河流域梯级水电站场地地震影响特征研究

本文利用四川地区及邻区的烈度衰减关系式,计算了历史强震对大渡河梯级水电站场址的影响烈度和最大烈度。同时,还分析了水电站场址在历史强震发生密集时的地震影响烈度特征,以期为今后梯级水电站的地震安全综合防御和地震应急工作提供参考。     

汶川8.0级地震陕西灾区震害特征分析

分析了汶川8.0级地震对陕西造成的灾害损失及震害特点。结合陕西灾区地震地质构造与区域环境背景,研究了陕西不同烈度区的震害特征和汶川地震在宝鸡市陈仓区和西安市市区形成的烈度异常破坏现象,并进一步探讨了防震减灾的相关问题。     

烈度及设防结构烈度评定的讨论

随着我国地震工程学的发展,烈度的应用范围渐渐发生了变化。通过整理半个多世纪的历史地震震害数据,发现整体趋势是,低烈度区的同类结构基本完好比例增加,其他破坏等级的比例下降,高烈度区同类结构的毁坏比例增加;收集近些年发生的汶川地震、芦山地震和鲁甸地震的部分震害数据,发现同一烈度区,设防、未设防的和不同设防等级的结构震害差别较大。如果烈度表达的是地震后果,则据这些后果平均水平判定的烈度应有不同,反证了烈度的含义是通过震害反映的地震作用。因此,借助不同建筑类型、不同设防等级的结构判定烈度时,需要相对统一的标准。由于我国丰富的震害资料来源于未设防结构,建议通过某个烈度下的不同设防标准、各类结构、各震害等级的平均震害指数和(或)破坏比与未设防同类结构的平均震害指数和(或)破坏比的统计关系,建立未设防结构对应的平均震害指数和(或)破坏比的调整系数,可据设防结构震害判定烈度。     

2017年九寨沟Ms7.0地震低烈度区烈度异常特征与启示

根据九寨沟M_s 7.0地震现场调查结果,总结了甘肃文县低烈度区震害的一般特征,分析了低烈度区烈度异常点的震害特点,并对产生烈度异常的原因进行了探讨。调查和分析研究结果表明:由于研究区的建筑多在汶川M_s 8.0大地震后进行了重建或抗震加固,且地震持时较短,此次地震中低烈度区房屋震害总体较轻。然而,低烈度区存在建筑裂缝、滑坡、滑塌和桥梁损坏等显著的烈度异常现象,其主要原因是建筑场地位于滑坡体以及高陡边坡等抗震不利地带;此外,地震波的传播方向和研究区内岩土体的特性也是造成低烈度区烈度异常的重要因素。地震地质灾害需在地震烈度评定标准修订时予以重点考虑。     

汶川地震地面运动场估计及地震烈度与地震动参数相关性分析

地震工程学的发展离不开强震观测资料,其中观测资料又可以分为两类:一类是地震动时程记录;另一类是实际震害调查资料.在众多实际震害调查资料中,地震烈度分布是一种最为常见、最有价值的实际震害调查资料.如果能建立由强震观测记录衍生而来的各种地震动参数与烈度两者之间合理的关系,则可为地震应急和相应措施的制定提供依据.有鉴于此,本文以各种地震动参数与烈度的相关性分析为核心,对用什么样的参数、采用什么样的方法来衡量烈度进行了探索.     

河北省自然震害特点及其预测

考察了历史地震震害特点,认为自然震害多受自然条件控制,对震害类型起定性作用的是地质地貌条件,地质因素只影响震害的程度。因此,可望在烈度区划的基础上,利用地貌与震害关系的研究成果,对强震的自然震害进行宏观预测。总结了河北省历史上遭遇强震影响所出现的自然震害特点,对全省各地貌单元可能出现的震害进行了宏观预测。在此基础上考虑到工程对场地的要求,将全省区划为四类场地,即无震害或汉有轻微震害的A类场地;场地条件好,但烈度区划高,或者场地条件差,但烈度区划低震害轻的B类场地;可产生各类较重震害的C类场地;以及场地条件差,烈度区划高,可产生严重震害的D类场地。     

2007年宁洱6.4级地震震害综述

给出了宁洱6.4级地震4个烈度区的分布情况,详细介绍了本次地震造成的各类建筑物震害、各烈度区的建筑结构特点和震害特征、生命线工程和水利设施的震害以及地表裂缝、滑坡和沙土液化及喷沙冒水等地震地质灾害,并对形成震害的原因进行了初步分析。     

昆明地区的地震危险性问题

本文从昆明地区的历史地震、震害以及地震地质条件等方面,论述了昆明地区的地震危险不仅来自小江地震带,昆明地区本身也存在发生较强地震的发震条件。与1985年墨西哥地震的震害特征对比,昆明地区未来遭受地震破坏时,也极可能出现震害重复性及砂土液化问题。建议对昆明地区的地震危险及震害预测等问题进行详细研究,以作为制定城市抗震防灾规划的重要依据。     

昆明盘龙江江岸对震害的影响

如果在昆明及其附近地区发生强烈的破坏性地震,当地震波传播到盘龙江江岸这一特定的场地条件时,对震害会产生怎样的影响?本文根据在强震考察中看到的一些河岸破坏的情况和对盘龙江江岸地区的一些工程水文地质资料及局部地区脉动观测结果分析指出:(1)强震时江岸地区易发生地裂,地陷和塌方等地基失效现象而加大震害。(2)由于江岸地区的土层含有饱和的砂土层,强震时易引起砂土液化导致地基失效而加大震害。(3)由于江岸地形的影响,强震时对振动起放大作用而加大震害。所以在昆明的城市规划建设中,盘龙江两岸在离岸边30米内最好不要建筑任何结构物,以免在强震时造成严重的破坏。     

基于华北区域地震活动性分布的地震危险性评价模型

采用了分布式地震活动性模型. 该模型无需潜在震源区划分,同时简化了地震危险性概率分析方法. 根据破坏性地震目录建立了3个地震活动性模型,利用高斯光滑函数获得了华北区域内的a值分布特征,使用3种典型的衰减模型,分别计算了50年内超越概率10%, 5%和2%的地震动峰值加速度分布. 其分析结果显示了峰值加速度分布特征与我国第四代区划图大体一致,特定地震活动区（太原、 石家庄等地区）的峰值加速度略高于第四代区划图的结果,而这种峰值加速度分布特征与该地区较高的地震活动性特征是一致的. 概率危险性曲线结果表明,唐山、太原和北京等地区的潜在地震危险性比华北区域内其它城市高.      

辽宁省地震易发区地震危险性研究

盘锦、海城、营口地区是辽宁省内地震活动性最强、地震危险性最高的地区。该地区开展了大量重点工程地震安全性评价、区域性地震区划和地震小区划工作，但尚未开展基于场地条件的区域尺度地震危险性研究。独有的沉积特点使该地区场地条件较复杂，因此在地震危险性概率分析中考虑场地条件是必要的。本文基于新一代中国地震动参数区划图基本原理和技术原则，结合盘锦、海城、营口地区场地条件特征，采用基于地形坡度的方法对场地条件进行分类，确定场地地震动影响系数，给出该地区基于区域场地条件的地震危险性分布，相关研究结果可为地震风险评估和防震减灾规划提供参考。     

Spatial zonations for regional assessment of seismic site effects in the Seoul metropolitan area

Earthquake-induced hazards are profoundly affected by site effects related to the amplification of ground motions, which are strongly influenced by local geologic conditions such as soil thickness or bedrock depth and soil stiffness. In this study, an integrated geographic information system (GIS)-based system for geotechnical data, called the geotechnical information system (GTIS), was developed to establish a regional counterplan against earthquake ground motions in the Seoul metropolitan area. In particular, to reliably predict spatial geotechnical information, a procedural methodology for building the GTIS within a GIS framework was developed and applied to the Seoul area in Korea. To build the GTIS, pre-existing geotechnical data were collected in and around the study area, and then a walk-over site survey was conducted to acquire surface geo-knowledge data. In addition, the representative shear wave velocities for geotechnical layers were derived by statistically analyzing many seismic test data in Korea. The GTIS was used in a practical application to estimate site effects in the study area; seismic zoning maps of geotechnical earthquake parameters, such as the depth to bedrock and the site period, were created and presented as a regional synthetic strategy for earthquake risk assessment. Furthermore, seismic zonation of site classification was also performed to determine the site amplification coefficients for seismic design and seismic performance evaluation at any site and administrative sub-unit in the study area. The methodology and results of the case study of seismic zonations in the Seoul area verified that the GIS-based GTIS can be very useful for the regional estimation of seismic risk and also to support decisions regarding seismic hazard mitigation, particularly in the metropolitan area.     

Earthquake Hazard Parameters in Crete Island and its Surrounding Area Inferred from Bayes Statistics: An Integration of Morphology of the Seismically Active Structures and Seismological Data

-- The study addresses the evaluation of earthquake hazard parameters such as maximum regional magnitude (M_max) and the slope of Gutenberg-Richter law # (where b=# log e) for the Hellenic Wadati-Benioff zone and the overriding lithospheric plate in the area of Crete and its surroundings. The seismicity of the area is divided in a cellular (1.0° 2 1.0°) manner allowing analysis of the localized earthquake hazard parameters and graphical representation of their spatial variation. Our approach incorporates the recently updated earthquake catalogue for Greece and the adjacent areas, the consideration of the morphology of the deep seismically active structures in the studied area and use of a probabilistic procedure for estimating the earthquake hazard parameters.¶One of the main inconsistencies in the earthquake hazard assessment is the estimation of the maximum magnitude and the related uncertaint y. The Bayesian approach, applied in the present, is a straightforward technique for evaluating the earthquake hazard parameters and is based on the following assumptions: Poissonian character of seismic events flow, a frequency-magnitude law of Gutenberg-Richter's type with cutoff maximal value for estimated parameter and a seismic catalogue, having a rather sizeable number of events (i.e., 50 events at least per cell). For five cells in which the number of events is less than 50, an effort is made to produce synthetic data. The re-assessed parameters obtained from the synthetic data show no significant difference and the real data (of the five cells) are finally taken into account although the estimated uncertainty is high.¶For four random cells we constructed hazard curves showing the probabilities that a certain magnitude M will be exceeded in one year and the return periods (in years) that are expected for a given magnitude. These are particularly useful for the mapping of earthquake hazard in regions of either low or high seismic activity, as is Crete and the adjacent area.¶The obtained results show that the W and E parts of both subducting and overriding plates differ in the spatial distribution of all the estimated earthquake hazard parameters. The M_max distribution indicates strong coupling between the western portions of the interacting plates (M_max > 6.3) to the south of 36°N. The smaller values of M_max (M_max < 6.3) estimated in the SE part of the studied area indicate weak coupling between the eastern portions of the subducting and overriding plates.¶Values of b > 1.0 are found to the south and east of Crete for the Wadati-Benioff zone, and over the central part of the island and the area to the northeast of it (cell 11) for the continental wedge, which suggests nonuniform stress field and/or heterogeneous material.     

晋冀蒙交界地区地震危险性评估及地震活动性分析

本文利用晋冀蒙交界地区1500年以来记录较完整的M_S5.0及以上历史地震烈度资料和2000年以来的地震活动资料，分别进行地震灾害危险性和地震活动性分析。首先，利用ArcGIS将历史地震烈度资料数字化，没有等震线记录的地震用烈度衰减关系计算烈度圈半径。将研究区划分成0.1°×0.1°的网格，将烈度资料分配到与之相交的每个网格，并用烈度-频度关系计算每个网格的烈度a、b值。基于地震发生遵从泊松分布的假定，估算未来50年内晋冀蒙交界区遭受某一地震烈度的超越概率。同时，计算50年超越概率10%对应的地震烈度，计算结果表明张家口蔚县、阳原和山西广灵县周边地区的地震危险性较高。最后，采用中小地震能量密度值计算方法，对2000年以来的现今地震活动进行定量分析，与历史地震烈度资料分析结果进行对比，发现中小地震活动圈定的危险区与历史地震烈度资料评估计算的概率高值区相对应，因此，这两种方法可为晋冀蒙交界地区的地震活动性和危险性评价提供参考。     

1971 San Fernando and 1994 Northridge, California, earthquakes: did the zones with severely damaged buildings reoccur?

This paper compares the distribution of damage from the San Fernando, 1971, and Northridge, 1994, earthquakes. Both events had similar size, occurred on blind thrust faults beneath the densely populated San Fernando Valley of the Los Angeles metropolitan area, and hence offer a rare opportunity to compare the effects of the two earthquakes. In a previous study of the distribution of red-tagged (‘unsafe’) buildings and of breaks in the water distribution system caused by the Northridge earthquake, the authors discovered that buildings were damaged less where the soil response was not linear (as indicated by the breaks in the water pipes), except in localized areas of very severe shaking (peak ground velocity exceeding 150 cm/s). The study in this paper shows that the same applies to the damage caused by the San Fernando earthquake, and that the areas with severely damaged buildings (so called ‘gray zones’) for both earthquakes overlapped. This reoccurrence of damage within the same area is interpreted to result from some specific properties of local soil and geology. These properties are not fully understood at present, but should be explored to provide a basis for a new tool for forecasting microzonation maps, and reducing future seismic hazard.     

APPLICATION OF LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL FOR HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF EARTHQUAKE-TRIGGERED LANDSLIDES: A CASE STUDY OF 2017 JIUZHAIGOU(CHINA)MS7.0 EVENT

The M_S7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake in Sichuan Province of 8 August 2017 triggered a large number of landslides. A comprehensive and objective panorama of these landslides is of great significance for understanding the mechanism, intensity, spatial pattern and law of these coseismic landslides, recovery and reconstruction of earthquake affected area, as well as prevention and mitigation of landslide hazard. The main aim of this paper is to present the use of remote sensing images, GIS technology and Logistic Regression(LR)model for earthquake triggered landslide hazard mapping related to the 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake. On the basis of a scene post-earthquake Geoeye-1 satellite image(0.5m resolution), we delineated 4834 co-seismic landslides with an area of 9.63km². The ten factors were selected as the influencing factors for earthquake triggered landslide hazard mapping of Jiuzhaigou earthquake, including elevation, slope angle, aspect, horizontal distance to fault, vertical distance to fault, distance to epicenter, distance to roads, distance to rivers, TPI index, and lithology. Both landsliding and non-landsliding samples were needed for LR model. Centroids of the 4834 initial landslide polygons were extracted for landslide samples and the 4832 non-landslide points were randomly selected from the landslide-free area. All samples(4834 landslide sites and 4832 non-landslide sites)were randomly divided into the training set(6767 samples)and validation set(2899 samples). The logistic regression model was used to carry out the landslide hazard assessment of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake and the results show that the landslide hazard assessment map based on LR model is very consistent with the actual landslide distribution. The areas of Wuhuahai-Xiamo, Huohuahai and Inter Continental Hotel of Jiuzhai-Ruyiba are high hazard areas. In order to quantitatively evaluate the prediction results, the trained model calculated with the training set was evaluated by training set and validation set as the input of the model to get the output results of the two sets. The ROC curve was used to evaluate the accuracy of the model. The ROC curve for LR model was drawn and the AUC values were calculated. The evaluation result shows good prediction accuracy. The AUC values for the training and validation data set are 0.91 and 0.89, respectively. On the whole, more than 78.5% of the landslides in the study area are concentrated in the high and extremely high hazard zones. Landslide point density and landslide area density increase very rapidly as the level of hazard increases. This paper provides a scientific reference for earthquake landslides, disaster prevention and mitigation in the earthquake area.     

新疆巴楚地震液化宏观现象的对比分析

2003年2月24日新疆巴楚-伽师地区发生6.8级地震,出现了唐山、海城地震后近30年我国最具规模的砂土液化现象。本文通过现场调查和资料分析,并与以往大地震液化比较,提出了此次地震液化宏观现象的认识,包括液化分布特征、喷水冒砂形态、液化震害和工程地质条件等几个方面。结果表明,此次地震液化宏观现象与我国以往几次大地震有很多不同,具有很大的研究价值。