Forever transnational: The ambivalence of return and cross‐border activities of the Shan across the Thailand‐Myanmar border

Over the past two decades, northern Thailand has experienced a massive influx of Shan ethnic nationals from Myanmar migrating to escape economic hardship and political conflicts at home. Myanmar's recent reforms raise the question of whether these migrants will return. The paper brings together the context of current changes in Myanmar with migrants' prospects of return and the impact of large‐scale migration on homeland politics. On the one hand, the paper explores the possibility that Shan migrants could remain forever transnational, for many of them will most likely never return. On the other hand, it considers the perspective of Shan elites in Myanmar on the fact a large portion of young Shan now spend their adult lives living and working in Thailand. While out‐migration of young Shan threatens the social fabric of Shan community in Myanmar, Shan ethnonationalists strive across the Myanmar border to regain loyalty among the Shan migrant population in Thailand. By examining the two aspects, this paper attempts to shed light on the impact of transnational migration on both migrants and their home country.     

Globalisation and the pattern of inbound tourism in Australia

International tourist flows to Australia are examined from the perspective of globalisation. The factors influencing such flows are identified and their geographical impact outlined. Inbound tourism is shown to be growing quickly in both absolute and relative terms and to have a metropolitan emphasis that contrasts with the non‐metropolitan focus of domestic tourism. Tourism illustrates many of the social and cultural changes occurring in contemporary society; the nature of tourism is changing as society changes with a result that new forms of tourism are emerging. Particularly noteworthy is the shift from mass to ‘new tourism’. The nature and likely impact of these changes in Australia is assessed. The paper concludes that growth rates comparable with those achieved in the past might not be sustainable.     

Security Implications of a Worst-case Scenario of Climate Change in the South-west Pacific

This paper examines the links between climate change and security in the island states of the South-west Pacific. A worst-case scenario of climate change is presented which suggests that land will be lost or rendered uninhabitable in all Pacific Island states as a result of climate-change impacts. Loss of land is the focus of this paper for two reasons. Firstly, land is interwoven in the lives of many Pacific Islanders; it provides economic, cultural and spiritual security at a number of geographical scales. Secondly, a focus on land demonstrates clearly how an environmental threat such as climate change can undermine economic, societal, political and military security in the island states of the South-west Pacific. Clearly, climate change is an important threat to human security, and should be dealt with accordingly.     

基于旅游地居民感知和态度的旅游影响空间分异研究——以安徽省三河镇为例

旅游影响近年来成为旅游研究热点,但鲜有研究涉及旅游影响的区域空间不均衡问题。以安徽省三河镇为例,探讨古镇型旅游地旅游影响的空间分异问题。将全镇划分为三个不同的旅游影响区域,即核心区、过渡区和外围区,分别发放居民对旅游影响感知和态度的调查问卷,以此进行旅游影响的空间分异分析。结果表明,古镇型旅游地旅游影响的空间分异呈现出一定的规律性,不论是旅游收益的分配,还是成本的承担,都呈现区域不均衡性。     

Transitions to Energy and Climate Security in Southeast Asia? Civil Society Encounters with Illiberalism in Thailand and Myanmar

ABSTRACT

All states, whether governed by liberal or illiberal regimes, face the prospect of momentous and potentially catastrophic environmental impacts due to climate change. Historically, energy policy has been directed towards simply achieving energy security. This goal has now been significantly complicated by the need to achieve it while minimizing greenhouse gas emissions. Environmental non governmental organizations (ENGOs) could play a crucial role in promoting the transition to energy and climate security but the relative (il)liberalism of the political regime they operate under influences their effectiveness. This article assesses how ENGOs have impacted on the transition to energy and climate security in Myanmar and Thailand, two Southeast Asian countries highly susceptible to climate impacts and characterized by illiberal rule. It finds that the impact of ENGOs was highly dependent on their strategies, tactics and operation, with community-level projects providing a key route to effect change under conditions of extreme illiberalism.     

Nationalism, Populism, Dependency: Southeast Asia and Responses to the Asian Crisis

Opposition to neoliberal globalisation has been especially intense since the Asian crisis. This paper assesses three responses to the crisis: a broad localist reaction in Thailand, and the approaches adopted by two major Asian-based organisations, the Third World Network (TWN) and the Focus on the Global South. The discussion of these approaches focuses on the issues of nationalism and populism; dependency; industrialisation and the state; and liberalisation, international institutions, and local society. Their critiques range from the conservative populism of the localists, to reformism of TWN, and to the more radical "deglobalisation" approach of the Focus group. However, none have been able to free themselves of the influence of dependency models. Their populism and "progressive nationalism" prevents an accurate location of the causes of exploitation in capitalist processes. This paper questions whether the national-global dichotomy of these approaches is an adequate way to conceptualise capitalist production and exploitation in the era of globalisation.     

政治性民意集团及其利益博弈：缅甸国内长期冲突的一个分析视角

文章首先提出了一个国内政治性行为主体影响国家政局的分析框架,然后从“民意”“民意政治”“政治性民意”的视角,依据各民意集团的构成主体、利益诉求、行为方式等要素对缅甸国内的政治性民意集团进行梳理和划分,分析了缅甸政治性民意集团形成的时空环境,并对其形成的过程与机制进行探讨。。研究发现,在缅甸特殊的历史和地理环境背景下,形成了基于利益诉求而相互博弈的六大主要的政治性民意集团。各政治性民意集团或采取平等协商签订协议,或软硬兼施诱使妥协,或使用强力打击迫使接受等手段、方式进行权利博弈,成为缅甸国内主要的政治性行为主体。各政治性民意集团的借力博弈对缅甸政局产生了深远的影响,民意集团之间冲突的实质是其集团利益超越国家利益,这是缅甸国内长期冲突的主要致因。从“民意”“民意政治”的视域来研究一国内部的民主问题、民族问题、宗教问题和冲突问题是富有尝试性和探索性的,缅甸的实证研究也为研究特定国家的相关问题提供一个新的视野和参考借鉴。     

张家界旅游城市游客公共交通感知、满意度与行为

良好的旅游公共交通是游客在目的地区域开展旅游活动的重要基础,而游客对公共交通的感知会对游客目的地满意度和行为意图构成影响。以典型旅游城市张家界市为案例区,利用因子分析、多元回归分析等方法,分析了张家界游客公共交通感知维度及其表现,以及公共交通感知维度对游客目的地整体满意度和行为意图的影响。研究发现,张家界游客旅游公共交通感知维度共有“便捷性”、“费用和安全性”和“美观和科学性”三个维度,这些维度对游客目的地满意度和行为意图只产生较弱影响。其中,“便捷性”对整体公共交通满意度和重游意愿的影响较强,对游客目的地满意度的影响较弱;“美观和科学性”对游客目的地满意度不产生显著影响;“费用和安全性”也对游客目的地满意度的影响较弱。     

乡村旅游精准扶贫的创新路径——基于社会保障理论的思考

乡村旅游发展能够给当地居民带来巨大的就业机遇,社区参与能够提高乡村居民整体的社会保障水平,这为吉登斯所倡导的“第三条道路”社会保障思想提供了现实依据,也为乡村旅游实现精准扶贫效果提供了创新路径。洛阳栾川重渡沟村的社会保障在乡村旅游的影响下经历了3个阶段,1999年前未发展乡村旅游时受国家干预主义影响较大,1999—2004年乡村旅游发展体现了经济自由主义的影响,而2004年至今的实践体现了经济自由主义与国家干预主义的融合,实现了政府与市场、公平与效率、权利与责任的相对均衡,实践中已初步实现了以就业保障为基础、以养老保障及最低生活保障等为内容的乡村社会保障的全面提高。研究表明,西方背景下形成的国家干预主义及经济自由主义在中国乡村市场经济实践中有着不同的诠释及呈现方式,乡村旅游精准扶贫的关键是社区力量的觉醒及培育,其创新路径是实现“以旅游换保障”,即实现乡村旅游经济功能向社会功能的转变。     

黄河流域旅游生态安全的动态演变特征及驱动因素

科学测度与审视旅游生态安全对促进黄河流域旅游经济和生态环境协调可持续发展具有重要的理论和实践价值。从流域可持续发展视角,基于DPSIR系统模型构建黄河流域旅游生态安全理论框架和指标体系,采用改进TOPSIS法、核密度曲线、空间自相关、传统和空间马尔可夫链及面板分位数回归方法对其动态演化特征和驱动因素进行探析。结果表明：① 时间上,旅游生态安全均值波动下降后上升,呈收敛趋势,且有向“双核”形态演变的趋势。空间上,旅游生态安全值整体较低（0~0.55）,由2008年以风险级为主（占89.04%）转变为2017年以风险级和恶化级为主（分别占60.27%和31.51%）,且仍存在较大下行转移风险。② 动态演化特征上,不考虑邻域条件下,旅游生态安全风险级、敏感级转移具有“路径依赖”与“自身锁定”效应。而恶化级、临界安全级保持初始状态概率较小,且类型转移通常发生在相邻等级递次转移。邻域背景在其动态变化过程中起着重要作用,且其动态演化特征具有显著时空异质性。③ 影响因素方面,环境污染对低层级单元的旅游生态安全负向抑制作用较为明显,旅游负荷水平对较高层级地区旅游生态安全的正向边际效应略大,而旅游发展水平、经济发展水平等变量则对较低等级单元旅游生态安全的正向边际效应较大。     

领域陷阱与中国在缅甸北部的跨国禁毒实践

非法毒品不仅给国家安全和社会稳定带来新的挑战,也促使地理学者深入研究并揭示毒品贸易背后的地缘政治因素和经济社会问题。目前,中国已经成为缅甸北部“金三角”核心区域毒品的主要市场之一,基于中国政府恪守和平共处五项基本原则,无法对盘踞在“金三角”的毒贩进行有效的打击和根除。面对跨国毒贩,中国政府陷入了John Agnew提出的“领域陷阱”。如何在尊重缅甸国家主权的前提下实施有效的跨国禁毒,以维护中缅边境的安全和云南的社会稳定?本文借助政策报告和深度访谈资料,揭示毒品贸易的非传统安全属性,并且分析中国在缅甸北部的禁毒实践——采取武装威慑与替代种植。前者针对毒贩和跨国毒品集团,后者主要面向缅北依赖罂粟种植的农民。两种实践策略针对不同群体,相辅相成,标本兼治,不仅在缅甸领土主权和中缅边境安全之间找到了平衡,也为中国政府克服“领域陷阱”,建构了有效的跨国管制机制。本文丰富了地理学者对于领土主权、地缘政治以及边境安全的探讨,可为中国西南边境共建“一带一路”提供有益借鉴。     

Rural Local Economic Development and Land Restitution in South Africa: The Case of Schmidtsdrift,Northern Cape

Local Economic Development is (LED) an activity of increasing importance in the developing world as globalisation produces new roles for local governments. As compared to a growing number of urban initiatives for LED, rural LED initiatives are relatively undeveloped. In this paper, the focus is upon South Africa, where the post‐apartheid government has sought to encourage both urban and rural LED initiatives. Programmes of land reform and restitution in South Africa result in the resettlement or return to the land of communities formerly dispossessed under apartheid. A critical element of planning for successful resettlement is the implementation of LED programmes. Schmidtsdrift in Northern Cape is examined as an example of participatory LED in a developing rural context. Rural LED in South Africa is distinguished by its focus upon poverty alleviation in the context of addressing the legacies of apartheid.     

武汉市旅游生态安全评价研究

生态安全是由环境安全理论发展而来的一个新的安全概念,在国内多应用于对土地、水资源和城市进行生态安全评价。本研究基于“压力-状态-响应”（P—S—R）模型和生态安全理论,以2010年的实地调研为依托,尝试构建旅游城市旅游生态安全评价指标体系,采取专家座谈和熵权分析法为各指标赋值。本研究综合当前中国旅游城市的发展现状,以武汉市为例进行实证分析,最终得出武汉市旅游生态安全综合评价值。研究表明,武汉市旅游生态安全综合评价值从2004年的5．8023上升到2010年的6．459,生态安全状态逐年好转,达到了生态安全的“良好”状态。然而生态压力和生态响应却呈现出非相关性,7年间生态响应值远远低于生态压力值,武汉市旅游业的发展还处于粗放式发展状态。研究引入限制性因子的概念,根据公式分析出影响武汉市旅游生态安全的十个影响因素,并探讨未来武汉市旅游生态安全的发展策略。     

缅老泰交界地区刀耕火种农业的时空变化格局

刀耕火种农业深刻影响着东南亚地区的土地利用/土地覆被变化。研究刀耕火种农业的空间变化及其影响因素,对科学理解东南亚地区土地利用/土地覆被变化、农民生活方式变化和维持生态系统服务有重要作用。以缅老泰交界地区为研究区,运用遥感手段提取1996年、2000年、2003年和2011年四个时期刀耕火种农业的空间分布信息,并运用GeoDA空间自相关分析方法和GIS空间分析技术,分析了不同时间段刀耕火种农业的时空变化格局、刀耕火种农业面积和破碎化程度的空间自相关性,并对不同国家境内时空变化差异的原因进行了探讨。研究表明:① 缅老泰交界地区刀耕火种农业面积经历了一个小幅增加—小幅减少—大幅增加的变化过程,总体上净增加;其中,泰国清莱府分布最多,老挝波乔省增幅最大,缅甸大其力县净减少。② 缅老泰交界区刀耕火种农业斑块面积、破碎化程度空间分布均具有正相关性,刀耕火种农业面积的空间正相关性总体上有所提高,而破碎化程度的空间正相关性总体上略有降低。③ 轮歇周期、社会经济发展水平可能是不同国家境内刀耕火种农业空间变化差异的主要原因。     

Linking Ecotourism and Biodiversity Conservation: A Case Study of Doi Inthanon National Park, Thailand

Ecotourism, or tourism that promotes conservation, does not occur in isolation, but as part of an interdependent system. Based on a case study at Doi Inthanon National Park, Thailand, this study outlines a conceptual framework for such a system, placing biodiversity conservation in the context of other major tourism components, including tourists, ecotourism infrastructure, protected areas and local people. In an interactive way, each component affects the conservation of biodiversity. Based on a tourist survey and participant observation, we examine the interrelationships among the key tourism components and potential changes over time. Several environmental, social, economic and educational effects illustrate the complex nature of the ecotourism-conservation relationship. Recommendations to increase conservation benefits from ecotourism are provided.     

环境伦理观与可持续旅游行为研究进展

环境伦理观是促进人与环境和谐发展的核心理念,对可持续旅游行为具有积极的指导作用。本文通过对中英文主流数据库期刊的文献回顾,对环境伦理观的理论内涵、影响因素以及环境伦理观对可持续旅游行为的影响进行系统梳理。结果表明：环境伦理观的概念体系主要包括环境道德、环境情感和环境信念三要素。现有研究往往不区分环境道德和环境信念,对环境情感的度量往往缺乏统一标准,导致研究结果不一致。对环境伦理观具有直接影响力的是价值观理论,社会文化因素、宗教因素、教育水平、媒体和广告影响、政策、国内和国际移民经历等因素也有一定的作用。西方对环境伦理观与可持续旅游行为进行了大量的定性和定量研究,而国内以概念性研究居多,既有研究中往往仅关注旅游中的环境行为,对可持续旅游行为关注较少,缺乏对这一特定行为的概念界定,因此,未来应在以下几个方面加强研究：①对环境伦理观理论内涵的度量;②对环境伦理观影响因素的研究;③对可持续旅游行为的界定和度量;④文化因素对于环境伦理观和可持续旅游行为的影响;⑤运用定量和定性研究方法探求环境伦理观对可持续旅游行为的作用机理和影响,为促进生态文明建设提供理论支撑和实证研究。     

Neoliberal Globalisation, "Exotic" Agro-exports, and Local Change in the Pacific Islands: A Study of the Fijian Kava Sector

The economically vulnerable and geographically isolated states and territories of the Pacific Islands find themselves increasingly powerless to resist the recent accelerated diffusion of globalisation and the economic options that this entails. Neoliberal policy has arrived in the ocean region later than elsewhere in the tropical world and in the developing world in general. However, it now almost exclusively frames regional and state policy agendas, and is profoundly restructuring economies and societies across the region. Agriculture, by far the leading economic sector in Pacific Island countries, has been targeted specifically for reform. The cultivation of non-traditional agricultural exports has formed the centrepiece of the evolving strategy. As well as "staple" exports such as sugar, copra, and taro going to non-traditional markets, "exotic" niche products are being developed for export to high income markets in Europe, Asia and North America. A major example of such a product is kava – a "traditional" crop used in the preparation of a ceremonial and/or social drink. Psycho- and physiological properties have been identified in the plant by the pharmaceutical industry that is marketing a range of kava products. Produced widely across the Pacific, Fiji is the major export source. This paper traces the evolution of globalisation in the Pacific Islands, placing the current wave of neoliberalism in its historical context. It goes on to outline the evolution of the Fijian kava export sector, and investigates some of the local socio-economic impacts of recent market growth. Given the evidence presented in this study, the paper asks if the power relations evolving under contemporary neoliberal globalisation are likely to be any different from those that existed during colonial globalisation.     

返乡农民工旅游就业认知与意愿的实证研究

运用贵州省马岭河景区周边3个乡镇返乡农民工的调查数据及Logistic回归模型,对农民工旅游就业意愿及其影响因素进行了计量经济分析。研究表明,农民工旅游就业的意愿受到其年龄、文化程度、婚姻状况、务工时间、务工月收入、对当地旅游发展的认同度、对旅游就业的认知以及旅游地相关就业政策的满意度等多种因素的影响。基于实证研究结果,就如何通过正确引导和解决返乡农民工的后续就业问题提出了相应的理论思考和政策建议。     

缅孟边境罗兴亚难民的人口学特征及其对区域地缘政治关系的影响

基于联合国难民署的动态监测数据,对2018年1月至2020年9月期间的缅孟边境罗兴亚难民人口规模、人口结构及其对区域地缘政治关系的影响进行分析。研究表明：1）缅孟边境罗兴亚难民规模大且呈不断增长的态势;女性难民多于男性,难民年龄结构趋于年轻型,以18岁以下的未成年人为主,青壮年难民占总人口比重次之且增长快速;在空间分布上表现出典型的“距缅孟边境的距离衰变规律”,即难民营地向西部扩张,难民规模呈现自东向西递减的分布规律。2）罗兴亚难民的人口规模及结构对区域地缘政治关系产生了显著影响。一是深刻影响着缅甸的民主化进程;二是对缅孟边境安全形成挑战,导致缅孟关系趋于紧张;三是引发了多地缘行为体的介入与关注,进而引发了围绕难民问题的地缘政治博弈,导致东盟内部的分化及其地缘政治的外溢效应。3）相较于部分西方国家及国际组织,中国提出的“三步走”解决方案符合缅孟两国的实际情况,在中缅孟联合工作组机制下,罗兴亚难民问题正朝着合作共商的道路积极推进解决。     

Comprehensive Evaluation of the Suitability of Agricultural Land in Myanmar

Myanmar is a country with an economy based on agriculture. It has rich agricultural resources and great potential for development. The development of agriculture in Myanmar is becoming increasingly important to international food security. Assessments of agricultural land resources in Myanmar are the basis for the country’s agricultural development and for food security evaluations. In this paper we used the MaxEnt model to analyze the relationship between the suitability of land for agricultural reclamation and the main environmental variables in Myanmar, and then constructed a model to comprehensively evaluate the suitability of land for agriculture in Myanmar. The results show that: 1) the overall accuracy of the MaxEnt model is high (AUC>0.8), which means there is a high correlation between the database of selected environmental indicators and the true distribution of cultivated land in Myanmar. 2) Soil depth is the most important factor affecting the suitability of land for agriculture in Myanmar. When the thickness of soil layer is less than 100 cm, the suitability of land for agriculture is low. With respect to topographic conditions, slope is the main factor affecting suitability. When the slope is greater than 20 degrees, the suitability of land for agriculture is low. With respect to climate conditions, precipitation is the main influencing factor. There is a positive correlation between river network density and land suitability. 3) Currently, 400 000 km² of the land resources in Myanmar are suitable for agriculture, and of this amount 290 000 km² are highly suitable, accounting for nearly 40% of the country's land area. The highly suitable land is distributed mainly in Magway, Sagaing, Ayeyarwady and Yangon provinces. The provinces are also important grain production areas in Myanmar, and this serves to validate the effectiveness of the method used in this paper.