Governing geoengineering research: why, when and how?

Research on geoengineering – deliberate management of the Earth’s climate system – is being increasingly discussed within the science and policy communities. While justified as necessary in order to expand the range of options available to policy makers in the future, geoengineering research has already engendered public controversy. Proposed projects have been protested or cancelled, and calls for a governance framework abound. In this paper, we consider the reasons why geoengineering research might be subject to additional governance and suggest mechanisms that might be usefully applied in developing such a framework. We consider criteria for governance as raised by a review of the growing literature on geoengineering and other controversial scientific topics. We suggest three families of concern that any governance research framework must respond to: the direct physical risks of the research; the transparency and responsibility in decision making for the research; and the larger societal meanings of the research. We review what mechanisms might be available to respond to these three families of concern, and consider how these might apply to geoengineering research.     

Has the intensity of the interannual variability in summer rainfall over South China remarkably increased?

It is indicated in this paper that there were substantial differences of interannual variability (IIV) in summer rainfall over South China (RSC) among 1960–1977, 1978–1988, and 1989–2010. Notably, both IIV and mean RSC have significantly increased after 1992/1993. Relative to 1978–1988, the percentage increase of standard deviation (SD) of RSC is 230.32 % for 1993–2010. It indicates remarkable increase in IIV of RSC occurred 1993–2010, concurrent with rainfall increase. The results show that the mid-tropospheric meridional gradient of temperature over East Asia weakened in the later period, resulting in an anomalous cyclonic circulation, transporting more tropospheric moisture to South China and an upward motion at the middle and low levels of the troposphere. Meanwhile, IIV in the mid-tropospheric meridional gradient of temperature over East Asia resulted in IIVs both in the anomalous cyclonic circulation and in vertically integrated moisture content over South China. This scenario led to a significant increase in the IIV of summer rainfall over South China. Compared to 1978–1988, a greater increase in the IIV of warming over Mongolia–northeastern China and of excessive spring snow depth over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau were responsible for the increase in the IIV of the mid-tropospheric meridional gradient of the East Asian temperature during 1993–2010. Moreover, another slight increase in the IIV of summer rainfall over South China occurred in 1960–1977 relative to 1978–1988, which partly resulted from the weakening East Asian summer monsoon variability in the late 1970s.     

Who picks up the remainder? Mitigation in developed and developing countries

A fair, effective, flexible and inclusive climate regime beyond 2012 will need several political balances. Mitigation and funding will be at the heart of the agreement. The IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report indicates that absolute reductions will be needed in Annex I (AI) countries and substantial deviation from baseline in some non-Annex I (NAI) regions by 2020. Although the latter was not explicitly quantified by the IPCC, the EU subsequently proposed a range for developing countries. Sharing the burden for mitigation is essentially zero-sum: if one does less, the other has to do more. We critically examine the implicit assumption that NAI countries would pick up the remainder of the required global effort minus the AI contribution. We suggest that greater levels of ambition can be achieved by turning the formula around politically, starting from the achievable ‘deviation below baseline’ given NAI's national programmes and appropriate international support. AI countries may have to exceed the IPCC ranges or pay for the remainder. For notional levels of NAI mitigation action, Annex I has to reduce by between ?52% and ?69% below 1990 by 2020, only dropping to a domestic ?35% with commitments to offset payments through the carbon market. Given the large mitigation gap, a political agreement on the question of ‘who pays’ is fundamental. The carbon market will provide some investment, but it mainly serves to reduce costs, particularly in developed countries, rather than adding to the overall effort. Market-linked levies and Annex I public funding will therefore be crucial to bridge the gap.     

Who governs here? Informal resource extraction,state enforcement,and conflict in Ghana

Over the past two decades, “illegal” natural resource extraction has become a significant driver of environmental change and social conflict across the Global South. In response, numerous Sub-Saharan African states have engaged in governance reforms that heed calls to securitize – or, establish and consolidate state control over – natural resources. In Ghana, securitization has served to entrench the informal economy as domestic producers, marginalized in the process of reform, continue to utilize non-state institutions to maintain access. While the Ghanaian state has branded “illegal” resource extraction a major environmental, social, and national security concern, it has responded to this threat unevenly; it has violently enforced its authority in some contexts but remained relatively indifferent in others. This article explores the phenomenon of selective enforcement to explain patterns of violence that have emerged between state and society in response to both securitization and informality. Drawing on a multimethod approach, I find that natural resource governance authority remains fragmented across resource contexts, and that the configuration of authority and interests on the ground shapes the extent of state intervention. I propose a natural resource typology that identifies when the state is most likely to enforce its authority, and the degree of violent conflict likely to result. Ultimately, I contend that domestic patterns of enforcement are shaped primarily by: 1) competition with local power holders over resource entitlements and 2) global conservation and extraction priorities. While specific to Ghana, this argument can provide important insights into the relationship between informal extraction, state enforcement, and social conflict in other Global South contexts.     

Extremely Active Tropical Cyclone Activities over the Western North Pacific and South China Sea in Summer 2018: Joint Effects of Decaying La Ni?a and Intraseasonal Oscillation

In summer 2018, a total of 18 tropical cyclones(TCs) formed in the western North Pacific(WNP) and South China Sea(SCS), among which 8 TCs landed in China, ranking respectively the second and the first highest since 1951.Most of these TCs travelled northwest to northward, bringing in heavy rainfall and strong winds in eastern China and Japan. The present study investigates the impacts of decaying La Ni?a and intraseasonal oscillation(ISO) on the extremely active TCs over the WNP and SCS in summer 2018 by use of correlation and composite analyses. It is found that the La Ni?a episode from October 2017 to March 2018 led to above-normal sea surface temperature(SST) over central–western Pacific, lower sea level pressure and 500-hPa geopotential height over WNP, and abnormally strong convective activities over the western Pacific in summer 2018. These preceding oceanic thermal conditions and their effects on circulation anomalies are favorable to TC genesis in summer. Detailed examination reveals that the monsoon trough was located further north and east, inducing more TCs in northern and eastern WNP; and the more eastward WNP subtropical high as well as the significant wave train with a "-+-+" height anomaly pattern over the midlatitude Eurasia–North Pacific region facilitated the northwest to northward TC tracks. Further analyses reveal that two successively active periods of Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO) occurred in summer 2018 and the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation(BSISO) was also active over WNP, propagating northward significantly, corresponding to the more northward TC tracks. The MJO was stagnant over the Maritime Continent to western Pacific,leading to notably enhanced convection in the lower troposphere and divergence in the upper troposphere, conducive to TC occurrences. In a word, the extremely active TC activities over the WNP and SCS in summer 2018 are closely linked with the decaying La Ni?a, and the MJO and BSISO; their joint effects result in increased TC occurrences and the TC tracks being shifted more northwest to northward than normal.     

Possible effect of the Tibetan Plateau on the “upstream” climate over West Asia,North Africa,South Europe and the North Atlantic

We conduct several experiments using a fully-coupled climate model to understand the role of Tibetan Plateau (TP) surface heating in the climate variations over West Asia, South Europe, North Africa, and the North Atlantic during summer. Emphasis has been placed on the physical processes and responsible mechanisms that involve the shift of the Hadley cell and the important features of rotational and divergent response of the atmosphere to the TP heating. The relative importance of the TP to the Asian continent is also analyzed. A heating of the TP surface leads to local increases in tropospheric temperature and the thickness of the air column due to the so-called air pumping effect. In the upper troposphere, the South Asian high intensifies and extends westward. To the west of TP, especially in West Asia, South Europe, North Africa, and the North Atlantic, distinguished Rossby wave responses to the TP heating occur with anomalous high pressure and uniform warming in the entire troposphere. Correspondingly, descending motions intensify and precipitation decreases. However, the tropical Sahel rainfall increases because of a northward shift of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone and the anomalous westerlies due to the weakening of the southeastern portion of the Atlantic subtropical high. These effects of the TP heating explain a remarkable portion of the effects by the Asian continent heating. In addition, the impacts of different magnitudes of TP surface heating are also discussed.

     

Baseline,leakage and measurement issues: how do forestry and energy projects compare?

Abstract

This paper examines three issues in quantifying project-level emissions reductions (ERs): baseline and additionality determination, leakage assessment, and measurement of net emissions. It finds no systematic differences between land use change and forestry (LUCF) and energy projects in addressing these issues. Rather, the ease of quantification depends on the following:

• ?The level and distribution of direct financial benefits that result from the project, since this is a key determinant of additionality.

• ?The degree to which the project is integrated with a broader physical and economic system, since this determines the amount of leakage.

• ?The internal homogeneity and geographic dispersion of the project components—a key determinant of measurement costs.

These dimensions cut across the energy versus LUCF distinction.     

Baseline,leakage and measurement issues: how do forestry and energy projects compare?

This paper examines three issues in quantifying project-level emissions reductions (ERs): baseline and additionality determination, leakage assessment, and measurement of net emissions. It finds no systematic differences between land use change and forestry (LUCF) and energy projects in addressing these issues. Rather, the ease of quantification depends on the following:

• •The level and distribution of direct financial benefits that result from the project, since this is a key determinant of additionality.
• •The degree to which the project is integrated with a broader physical and economic system, since this determines the amount of leakage.
• •The internal homogeneity and geographic dispersion of the project components—a key determinant of measurement costs.

These dimensions cut across the energy versus LUCF distinction.     

Mapping and clustering the adoption of carbon pricing policies: what polities price carbon and why?

Carbon pricing, including carbon taxes and emissions trading, has been adopted by different kinds of polities worldwide. Yet, beyond the increasing adoption over time, little is known about what polities – countries as well as sub- and supranational entities – adopt carbon pricing and why. This paper explores patterns of adoption (both implemented policies and those scheduled to be) through cluster analysis, with the purpose of investigating factors that could explain polities’ decisions to adopt carbon pricing. The study contributes empirically by studying carbon taxes and emissions trading together and by ordering the polities adopting carbon pricing into clusters. It also contributes theoretically, by exploring constellations of variables that drive the adoption of carbon pricing within individual clusters. We investigated 66 adopted policies of carbon pricing, which were divided into five clusters: early adopters, North-American subnational entities, Chinese pilot provinces, second-wave developed polities, and second-wave developing polities. The analysis indicates that the reasons for adopting carbon pricing have shifted over time. While international factors (climate commitments or influences from polities within the same region) are increasingly salient, domestic factors (including crises and income levels) were more important for the early adopters.

Key policy insights

• Carbon pricing has become a global mainstream policy instrument.

• Economic and fiscal crises provide windows of opportunity for promoting carbon pricing.

• The international climate regime can support the adoption of carbon pricing through mitigation commitments and international financial and technical assistance.

• Learning between polities from the same region is a useful tool for promoting carbon pricing.

• Carbon intensive economies tend to prefer emissions trading over carbon taxes.

     

Does a monsoon circulation exist in the upper troposphere over the central and eastern tropical Pacific?

考虑到赤道中东太平洋地区(CETP)具有重要的气候影响,以及显著的季节性变率,本文利用可精确描述风向变化的动态标准化季节变率(DNS)方法,分析了该区域上对流层大气环流。结果发现该区域大气环流在冬季和夏季之间存在着类似于经典季风的、明显的季节性反转现象。以此为基础本文提出了赤道中东太平洋上对流层季风的概念,将传统的低对流层季风区扩展到了上对流。     

Who determines transformational change in development and climate finance?

The language of transformational change is increasingly applied to climate policy, and particularly in climate finance. Transformational change in this context is used with respect to low-carbon development futures, with the emphasis on mitigation and GHG metrics. But, for many developing countries, climate policy is embedded in a larger context of sustainable development objectives, defined through a national process. Viewed thus, there is a potential tension between mitigation-focused transformation and nationally driven sustainable development. We explore this tension in the context of operationalizing the Green Climate Fund (GCF), which has to deal with the fundamental tension between country ownership and transformational change. In relation to climate finance, acceptance of diverse interpretations of transformation are essential conditions for avoiding risk of transformational change becoming a conditionality on development. We further draw lessons from climate governance and the development aid literature. The article examines how in the case of both the Clean Development Mechanism and Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions, there has been limited success in achieving both development objectives and ‘nationally appropriate’ mitigation. The development aid literature points to process-based approaches as a possible alternative, but there are limitations to this approach.

Policy relevance

The concept of transformational change has gained prominence in climate finance. The conundrum facing the GCF is that it seeks to support transformational change in the climate realm, in a context where countries may have competing priorities. Balancing or even transcending this tension is a fundamental design challenge for the GCF. A primary focus on mitigation, particularly if metrics of performance are tied exclusively to GHG reduction, raise concerns about diluting ownership by recipient countries and evokes concerns of conditionality or worse. The literature on development assistance has explored options notably conditions on process and adequate capacity, and suggests that there are no short cuts to building domestic ownership. Actors on climate change need to avoid the risk that transformational change is perceived as, and becomes, an imposed condition. The risk that transformation change, operationalized in the context of unequal power relations, becomes an imposition on development, needs to be avoided.     

Carbon dioxide sequestration: how much and when?

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) sequestration has been proposed as a key component in technological portfolios for managing anthropogenic climate change, since it may provide a faster and cheaper route to significant reductions in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations than abating CO₂ production. However, CO₂ sequestration is not a perfect substitute for CO₂ abatement because CO₂ may leak back into the atmosphere (thus imposing future climate change impacts) and because CO₂ sequestration requires energy (thus producing more CO₂ and depleting fossil fuel resources earlier). Here we use analytical and numerical models to assess the economic efficiency of CO₂ sequestration and analyze the optimal timing and extent of CO₂ sequestration. The economic efficiency factor of CO₂ sequestration can be expressed as the ratio of the marginal net benefits of sequestering CO₂ and avoiding CO₂ emissions. We derive an analytical solution for this efficiency factor for a simplified case in which we account for CO₂ leakage, discounting, the additional fossil fuel requirement of CO₂ sequestration, and the growth rate of carbon taxes. In this analytical model, the economic efficiency of CO₂ sequestration decreases as the CO₂ tax growth rate, leakage rates and energy requirements for CO₂ sequestration increase. Increasing discount rates increases the economic efficiency factor. In this simple model, short-term sequestration methods, such as afforestation, can even have negative economic efficiencies. We use a more realistic integrated-assessment model to additionally account for potentially important effects such as learning-by-doing and socio-economic inertia on optimal strategies. We measure the economic efficiency of CO₂ sequestration by the ratio of the marginal costs of CO₂ sequestration and CO₂ abatement along optimal trajectories. We show that the positive impacts of investments in CO₂ sequestration through the reduction of future marginal CO₂ sequestration costs and the alleviation of future inertia constraints can initially exceed the marginal sequestration costs. As a result, the economic efficiencies of CO₂ sequestration can exceed 100% and an optimal strategy will subsidize CO₂ sequestration that is initially more expensive than CO₂ abatement. The potential economic value of a feasible and acceptable CO₂ sequestration technology is equivalent – in the adopted utilitarian model – to a one-time investment of several percent of present gross world product. It is optimal in the chosen economic framework to sequester substantial CO₂ quantities into reservoirs with small or zero leakage, given published estimates of marginal costs and climate change impacts. The optimal CO₂ trajectories in the case of sequestration from air can approach the pre-industrial level, constituting geoengineering. Our analysis is silent on important questions (e.g., the effects of model and parametric uncertainty, the potential learning about these uncertainties, or ethical dimension of such geoengineering strategies), which need to be addressed before our findings can be translated into policy-relevant recommendations.     

Regional and Synoptic-scale Features Associated with Inactive Periods of the Summer Monsoon over South China

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Study of Ozone and NO2 over Gadanki – a rural site in South India

We have studied long-term changes in tropospheric NO₂ over South India using ground-based observations, and GOME and OMI satellite data. We have found that unlike urban regions, the region between Eastern and Western Ghat mountain ranges experiences statistically significant decreasing trend. There are few ground-based observatories to verify satellite based trends for rural regions. However, using a past study and recent measurements we show a statistically significant decrease in NO_X and O₃ mixing ratio over a rural location (Gadanki; 13.48° N, 79.18° E) in South India. In the ground-based records of surface NO_X, the concentration during 2010–11 is found to be lower by 0.9 ppbv which is nearly 60 % of the values observed during 1994–95. Small but statistically significant decrease in noon-time peak ozone concentration is also observed. Noon-time peak ozone concentration has decreased from 34?±?13 ppbv during 1993–96 to 30?±?15 ppbv during 2010–11. NO_X mixing ratios are very low over Gadanki. In spite of low NO_X values (0.5 to 2 ppbv during 2010–11), ozone mixing ratios are not significantly low compared to many cities with high NO_X. The monthly mean ozone mixing ratio varies from 9 ppbv to 37 ppbv with high values during Spring and low values during late Summer. Using a box-model, we show that presence of VOCs is also very important in addition to NO_X in determining ozone levels in rural environment and to explain its seasonal cycle.     

Evolution of Intraseasonal Oscillation over the Tropica lWestern Pacific/South China Sea and Its Effect to the Summer Precipitation in Southern China

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