Predicting Solar Flares by Data Assimilation in Avalanche Models

Data assimilation techniques, developed in the past two decades mainly for weather prediction, produce better forecasts by taking advantage of both theoretical/numerical models and real-time observations. In this paper, we explore the possibility of applying the four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-VAR) technique to the prediction of solar flares. We do so in the context of a continuous version of the classical cellular-automaton-based self-organized critical avalanche models of solar flares introduced by Lu and Hamilton (Astrophys. J. 380, L89, 1991). Such models, although a priori far removed from the physics of magnetic reconnection and magnetohydrodynamical evolution of coronal structures, nonetheless reproduce quite well the observed statistical distribution of flare characteristics. We report here on a large set of data assimilation runs on synthetic energy release time series. Our results indicate that, despite the unpredictable (and unobservable) stochastic nature of the driving/triggering mechanism within the avalanche model, 4D-VAR succeeds in producing optimal initial conditions that reproduce adequately the time series of energy released by avalanches and flares. This is an essential first step toward forecasting real flares.     

An Exploration of Non-kinematic Effects in Flux Transport Dynamos

Recent global magnetohydrodynamical simulations of solar convection producing a large-scale magnetic field undergoing regular, solar-like polarity reversals also present related cyclic modulations of large-scale flows developing in the convecting layers. Examination of these simulations reveal that the meridional flow, a crucial element in flux transport dynamos, is driven at least in part by the Lorentz force associated with the cycling large-scale magnetic field. This suggests that the backreaction of the field onto the flow may have a pronounced influence on the long-term evolution of the dynamo. We explore some of the associated dynamics using a low-order dynamo model that includes this Lorentz force feedback. We identify several characteristic solutions which include single period cycles, period doubling and chaos. To emulate the role of turbulence in the backreaction process we subject the model to stochastic fluctuations in the parameter that controls the Lorentz force amplitude. We find that short term fluctuations produce long-term modulations of the solar cycle and, in some cases, grand minima episodes where the amplitude of the magnetic field decays to near zero. The chain of events that triggers these quiescent phases is identified. A subsequent analysis of the energy transfer between large-scale fields and flows in the global magnetohydrodynamical simulation of solar convection shows that the magnetic field extracts energy from the solar differential rotation and deposits part of that energy into the meridional flow. The potential consequences of this marked departure from the kinematic regime are discussed in the context of current solar cycle modeling efforts based on flux transport dynamos.     

On the Sudden Depression of Radio Emission From Plasma Above a Fast-Moving Sunspot

We present a very rare case of unexpected depression of radio emission above a sunspot using solar observations from RATAN-600. The sunspot had a very high proper motion on the solar surface. The depression lasted for 5 days without significant changes in area or magnitude of magnetic field of the associated sunspot. The observations show that the depression cannot be explained by the absorption of the emission during its propagation through the overlying magnetosphere of the AR or through the cold and opaque matter of a prominence. The theoretical interpretation of the phenomenon is based on the hypothesis that the motion of the sunspot on the photosphere leads to the significant expanding of the magnetic loop originated at this sunspot. The extension of the twisted magnetic rope results in the loss of equilibrium of the system: the closed magnetic structure (the twisted magnetic loop) seems destined to transform into an open one. The only mechanism of plasma heating which would be `switched off' in such a non-equilibrium configuration is that based on the quasi-static topological relaxation of a force-free magnetic field towards a configuration of minimum energy. Relaxation of magnetic fields does not occur in a non-equilibrium state. As a consequence, the energy release in the twisted magnetic rope and the temperature of the plasma of the local radio source have to fall down abruptly. Thus, the discussed phenomenon argues in favor of the relaxation model of plasma heating.     

An electric-current description of solar flares

The presently prevailing theories of solar flares rely on the hypothetical presence of magnetic flux tubes beneath the photosphere and the two subsequent hypotheses, their emergence above the photosphere and explosive magnetic reconnection, converting magnetic energy carried by the flux tubes to solar flare energy. In this paper, we discuss solar flares from an entirely different point of view, namely in terms of power supply by a dynamo process in the photosphere. By this process, electric currents flowing along the magnetic field lines are generated and the familiar ‘force-free’ fields or the ‘sheared’ magnetic fields are produced. Upward field-aligned currents thus generated are carried by downward streaming electrons; these electrons can excite hydrogen atoms in the chromosphere, causing the optical Hα flares or ‘low temperature flares’. It is thus argued that as the ‘force-free’ fields are being built up for the magnetic energy storage, a flare must already be in progress.     

Variations of Photospheric Magnetic Field Associated with Flares and CMEs

Using high-cadence magnetograms from the SOHO/MDI we have investigated variations of the photospheric magnetic field during solar flares and CMEs. In the case of a strong X-class flare of May 2, 1998, we have detected variations of magnetic field in a form of a rapidly propagating magnetic wave. During the impulsive phase of the flare we have observed a sudden decrease of the magnetic energy in the flare region. This provides direct evidence of magnetic energy release in solar flares. We discuss the physics of the magnetic field variations, and their relations to the Moreton Hα waves and the coronal waves observed by the EIT.     

Current state of the problem of solar flares: New observations and new models

A review of current questions related to the problem of large solar flares is given. The basic physical principles applied in numerical simulation of flares are presented and illustrated. The main attention is given to the phenomenon of magnetic reconnection in large-scale current layers at separators of magnetic field in the corona. This phenomenon is demonstrated within the framework of the Rainbow topological model. The model provides the possibility of explaining specific features of large-scale reconnection as a physical process that makes it possible to accumulate large energy in the form of the magnetic energy of current layers before a flare and to quickly transform this energy to the kinetic energy of particles during a flare. The secondary effects in the solar atmosphere caused by energy fluxes from reconnecting current layers are also discussed. These consequences of the primary energy release are responsible for the flare pattern observed in X-ray, optical, UV, and other spectral ranges.     

Interpretation of the observed motions of hard X-ray sources in solar flares

In connection with the RHESSI satellite observations of solar flares, which have revealed new properties of hard X-ray sources during flares, we offer an interpretation of these properties. The observed motions of coronal and chromospheric sources are shown to be the consequences of three-dimensional magnetic reconnection at the separator in the corona. During the first (initial) flare phase, the reconnection process releases an excess of magnetic energy related predominantly to themagnetic tensions produced before the flare by shear plasma flows in the photosphere. The relaxation of a magnetic shear in the corona also explains the downward motion of the coronal source and the decrease in the separation between chromospheric sources. During the second (main) flare phase, ordinary reconnection dominates; it describes the energy release in the terms of the “standard model” of large eruptive flares accompanied by the rise of the coronal source and an increase in the separation between chromospheric sources.     

CME-Flare Association Deduced from Catastrophic Model of CMEs

Based on our previous works regarding solar eruptions, we focus on the relationships among different eruptive phenomena, such as solar flares, eruptive prominences and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The three processes show clear correlations under certain circumstances. The correlation between a CME and solar flare depends the energy that stored in the relevant magnetic structure, which is available to drive the eruption: the more energy that is stored, the better the correlation is; otherwise, the correlation is poor. The correlation between a CME and eruptive prominence, on the other hand, depends on the plasma mass concentration in the configuration prior to the eruption: if the mass concentration is significant, a CME starts with an eruptive prominence, otherwise, a CME develops an without an apparent associated eruptive prominence. These results confirm that solar flares, eruptive prominences and CMEs are different significances of a single physical process that is related to the energy release in a disrupted coronal magnetic field. The impact of gravity on CME propagation and the above correlations is also investigated. Our calculations indicate that the effect of gravity is not significant unless the strength of the background field in the disrupted magnetic configuration becomes weak, say weaker than 30 G.     

Spherical magnetic vortex in a uniform gravity field: A new exact solution and its applications for modeling solar flares and coronal spiders

The well-known Chandrasekhar-Prendergastmagnetostatic solution for a sphericalmagnetic vortex with axial symmetry squeezed externally by a potential magnetic field is of considerable interest both for describing the magnetic field of a star as a whole and for modeling solar active phenomena (flares, coronal spiders, etc.). This solution is generalized to the case of a uniform gravity field. In contrast to the Chandrasekhar-Prendergast model, the dependence of the plasma density in the spherical vortex on magnetic flux appears in the new solution. This expands considerably the class of magnetoplasma equilibria being analyzed and allows new scenarios for energy release in solar flares and coronal spiders to be proposed.     

Relationship between CME dynamics and solar flare plasma

The relationship between the velocity of CMEs and the plasma temperature of the associated X-ray solar flares is investigated.The velocity of CMEs increases with plasma temperature(R=0.82)and photon index below the break energy(R=0.60)of X-ray flares.The heating of the coronal plasma appears to be significant with respect to the kinetics of a CME from the reconnection region where the flare also occurs.We propose that the initiation and velocity of CMEs perhaps depend upon the dominant process of conversion of the magnetic field energy of the active region to heating/accelerating the coronal plasma in the reconnected loops.Results show that a flare and the associated CME are two components of one energy release system,perhaps,magnetic field free energy.     

灾变理论在太阳物理和天体物理其他研究领域中的应用

叙述和介绍了太阳爆发的磁通量绳灾变理论和模型的发展过程,强调了建立这样的模型所需要的观测基础。讨论了由模型所预言的爆发磁结构的几个重要特征以及观测结果对这种预言的证实。在此模型的基础上,讨论了一个典型的爆发过程中所出现的不同现象及它们之间的相互关系。最后,介绍了作者的一项最新尝试:将太阳爆发的灾变理论和模型应用到对黑洞吸积盘间歇性喷流的理论研究当中,以及研究所取得的初步结果。     

Preflare activity

Magnetic reconnection at current sheets or in current-bearing arches in the solar atmosphere is generally accepted as the mechanism responsible for the sudden energy release in solar flares. Attempts have so far been unsuccessful to isolate from the observations some unique preconditions which would be necessary and sufficient to ensure rapid conversion of energy by this process. Here we survey recent multi-wavelength observations which illustrate the variety of preflare activity. Multiple structures are now believed to participate in the energy release. Dynamic global coupling of the magnetic fields between a flaring site and the rest of an activity complex is seen from the data to be an important aspect of preflare activity.     

An essay on sunspots and solar flares

The presently prevailing theories of sunspots and solar flares rely on the hypothetical presence of magnetic flux tubes beneath the photosphere and the two subsequent hypotheses, their emergence above the photosphere and explosive magnetic reconnection, converting magnetic energy carried by the flux tubes for solar flare energy.In this paper, we pay attention to the fact that there are large-scale magnetic fields which divide the photosphere into positive and negative (line-of-sight) polarity regions and that they are likely to be more fundamental than sunspot fields, as emphasized most recently by McIntosh (1981). A new phenomenological model of the sunspot pair formation is then constructed by considering an amplification process of these largescale fields near their boundaries by shear flows, including localized vortex motions. The amplification results from a dynamo process associated with such vortex flows and the associated convergence flow in the largescale fields.This dynamo process generates also some of the familiar “force-free” fields or the “sheared” magnetic fields in which the magnetic field-aligned currents are essential. Upward field-aligned currents generated by the dynamo process are carried by downward streaming electrons which are expected to be accelerated by an electric potential structure; a similar structure is responsible for accelerating auroral electrons in the magnetosphere. Depending on the magnetic field configuration and the shear flows, the current-carrying electrons precipitate into different geometrical patterns, causing circular flares, umbral flares, two-ribbon flares, etc. Thus, it is suggested that “low temperature flares” are directly driven by the photospheric dynamo process.     

On the periodicity of energy release in solar active regions

We investigate the periodic regimes of energy release on the Sun, namely, the recurrence of solar flares in active regions using the Solar Geophysical Data Journal on Hα flares from 1979 until 1981, which corresponds to the maximum of solar cycle 21. We obtained the following series of periods in the manifestation of flare activity bymeans of a correlation periodogram analysis, a self-similarity function, and a wavelet analysis: ～1, 2, 3 h as well as ～0.4, 1, 2, 5 days. We suggest a diffusive model for the quasi-periodic transfer of toroidal magnetic fields from under the photosphere to interpret the retrieved sequence of periods in the enhancement of flare activity. We estimated the typical spatial scales of the magnetic field variations in the solar convection zone: ～17 000 km.     

Towards the circuit theory of solar flares

It has been shown that the main problems of the circuit theory of solar flares - unlikely huge current growth time and the origin of the current interruption - have been resolved considering the case of magnetic loop emergence and the correct application of Ohm's law. The generalized Ohm's law for solar flares is obtained. The conditions for flare energy release are as follows: large current value, > 10¹¹ A, nonsteady-state character of the process, and the existence of a neutral component in a flare plasma. As an example, the coalescence of a flare loop and a filament is considered. It has been shown that the current dissipation has increased drastically as compared with that in a completely ionized plasma. The current dissipation provides effective Joule heating of the plasma and particle acceleration in a solar flare. The ion-atom collisions play the decisive role in the energy release process. As a result the flare loop resistance can grow by 8–10 orders of magnitude. For this we do not need the anomalous resistivity driven by small-scale plasma turbulence. The energy release emerging from the upper part of a flare loop stimulates powerful energy release from the chromospheric level.     

Interaction between sheared flow and resistive tearing mode

We investigate the nonlinear evolution of resistive tearing mode in a current sheet with a sheared flow in a long, thin cylinder. The results show that a hyperbolic secant (sech) flow field will lead to instability of the resistive tearing mode, formation of magnetic islands and rapid release of magnetic energy. The coupling between sheared flow and the tearing mode and interaction between suprathermal instabilities change the degree of shear in the magnetic field (the electric current gradient) and drive the development of the instability. This process may be one of the mechanisms of solar flares.     

Flare-Induced Excitation of Solar p modes

Solar flares release large amounts of energy at different layers of the solar atmosphere, including at the photosphere in the case of exceptionally major events. Therefore, it is expected that large flares would be able to excite acoustic waves on the solar surface, thereby affecting the p-mode oscillation characteristics. We have applied the ring-diagram analysis technique to 3-D power spectra obtained for different flare regions in order to study how flares affect the amplitude, frequency and width of the acoustic modes. Data from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) has been used. We have used data obtained for several active regions of the current solar cycle that have produced flares. In most cases, during the period of high flare activity, power in p modes appears to be larger when compared to that in non-flaring regions of similar magnetic field strength.     

Energetics of two-ribbon solar flares

A theory of two-ribbon solar flares is presented which identifies the primary energy release site with the tops of the flare loops. The flare loops are formed by magnetic reconnection of a locally opened field configuration produced by the eruption of a pre-flare filament. Such eruptions are commonly observed about 15 min prior to the flare itself. It is proposed that the flare loops represent the primary energy release site even during the earliest phase of the flare, i.e., the flare loops are in fact the flare itself.Based upon the supposition that the energy release at the loop tops is in the form of Joulean dissipation of magnetic energy at the rising reconnection site, a quantitative model of the energy release process is developed based upon an analytic reconnecting magnetic field geometry believed to represent the basic process. Predicted curves of energy density vs time are compared with X-ray observations taken aboard Skylab for the events of 29 July, 13 August, and 21 August in 1973. Considering the crudity of the model, the comparisons appear reasonable. The predicted field strengths necessary to produce the observed energy density curves are also reasonable, being in the range 100–1000 G.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

黑子磁场的Stokes光谱反演技术

对太阳大气磁场的可靠测量有助于人们更好地理解太阳活动区内外的许多活动现象,如耀斑的触发和能量释放过程、黑子的形态和黑子大气的平衡、日珥的形成等.由于原子在磁场中的一些能级会产生分裂(Zeeman效应),使对应这些能级的谱线分裂成若干个具有不同偏振特性的分量,因此目前对黑子磁场的测量主要是通过偏振光,即Stokes参量I、Q、U、V的观测来实现的.该文主要介绍近30年来太阳黑子光谱反演的方法以及所取得的成就;同时也对光谱反演和滤光器型的望远镜矢量磁场的测量进行了简单的比较.     

Are solar flares a result of a sudden conversion of magnetic energy stored prior to their onset?

It has long been believed that solar flares result from a sudden conversion of magnetic energy stored prior to their onset. However, it is difficult to prove such an idea without knowing both the rate of energy input and the rate of energy output in the flare region. In spite of the fact that a similar mechanism has long been contemplated, magnetospheric substorms are found to be directly driven by an enhanced dynamo process. The results suggest also that the presence of magnetic energy in the magnetotail does not mean that it can be consumed for substorms. Implications of this finding for solar flares are discussed.