Estimating the annual mean screen temperature empirically

Summary We have examined station data from around the world to study the separate effects of the latitude (between 60° N–40° S), elevation and distance inland, on the annual-mean screen temperature. In the first 200–400 km from some west coasts, screen temperatures (after adjustment for elevation) rise inland, reaching a maximum called the ‘thermal-ridge temperature’ Tr. The rise of temperature within this littoral fringe (of width F) depends mainly on the difference between the sea-surface temperature off the west coast and the zonal mean. Further inland than such a fringe, adjusted temperatures generally decline eastwards, approximately linearly, at a rate C. The rate is related to hemisphere and latitude. Empirical relationships between latitude and the observed coastal sea-surface temperature, the near-shore screen temperature, Tr, C and F for each continent are used to estimate annual mean temperatures on land. Independent estimates of this kind for 48 places, using a look-up table, differ overall by only 0.7 K from the actual long-term average annual mean temperatures. This is less than half the error resulting from an assumption of zonal-mean temperatures. Basing estimates on coastal sea-surface temperatures, instead of the look-up table, results in an average error of 1.0 K for the 48 places. The errors are comparable with the standard deviation of annual mean temperatures during 30 years or so. Received March 6, 2001 Revised July 30, 2001     

On the effects of irrigation and urbanisation on the annual range of monthly-mean temperatures

Summary ?Weather station data indicate that large-scale irrigation of an arid region in southeastern Australia decreased the annual range of monthly-mean temperatures by 1–2 K. Such decrease is consistent with an observed increase in dewpoint, by about 1 K. Urbanisation may reduce the annual range but generally increases it. Received August 23, 2001; revised March 6, 2002; accepted April 14, 2002     

Empirical estimation of the monthly-mean daily temperature range

Summary ?This is a sequel to a study of the empirical estimation of the annual mean temperature and its range, at any location on land, based on the historical surface climate record. Here the spatial patterns of the daily temperature range (DTR) and its seasonal variation are examined. The DTR is highest in the subtropical deserts and is less at high latitudes, as well as within 30–150 km from an ocean. It is generally higher in winter (summer) at low (high) latitudes. The coastal DTR reduction is explained by sea breezes, onshore advection, and low-level cloud cover. Even large bodies of water, such as Lake Michigan, affect the near-shore DTR. Elevation does not directly affect the DTR, but valleys tend to have a DTR that is 2–6 K larger than adjacent hills or ridges. The main factor affecting the DTR is the afternoon relative humidity, which is dynamically linked to low-level cloud cover. An empirical relationship between DTR and afternoon relative humidity has an uncertainty of about 1.4 K for monthly-mean values. Received March 6, 2002; revised September 20, 2002; accepted November 3, 2002     

On the vertical profile of surface radiative fluxes in southwest Germany

Summary Vertical profile of surface radiative fluxes in an area of heterogeneous terrain in south-west Germany is presented. Main data sets utilized for the study were recorded during the REgio KLIma Projekt (REKLIP). Supporting observational data were provided by the German weather service and German geophysical consultant service. Elevation of the study sites ranged from 212 m a.s.l. to 1489 m a.s.l. From May to September, monthly mean albedo was generally low at the study sites, ranging from 19% to 24%. For the other months, monthly mean albedo lie between 22% and 25% at the lowland site but extended between 27% and 71% at the highly elevated mountain site. Following the altitudinal increase in surface albedo, net radiative flux and radiation efficiency declined with elevation at an annual mean of 1.15 Wm⁻²/100 m and 0.008/100 m respectively. Absorbed shortwave radiation and effective terrestrial radiation showed mean decline of 1.54 Wm⁻²/100 m and 0.34 Wm⁻²/100 m, respectively, with the mean sky-to-earth radiation deficit amounting to about 52 Wm⁻² for the lowland site and 73 Wm⁻² for the highest elevated site. Some empirical models which express shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes in terms of meteorological variables have been validated for the lowland and mountain sites. Monthly mean daily total estimates of solar radiation obtained from ?ngst?m-Prescott relation were quite consistent with observed values. Parameterisation of downward atmospheric radiation under all sky condition was achieved by extending Brutsaert clear sky atmospheric model. Relationship between outgoing longwave radiation and screen temperature at the study sites was best described by an exponential function unlike the linear relationship proposed by Monteith and Unsworth. Net radiative flux for the lowland and mountain sites has been expressed in terms of absorbed shortwave radiation, cloud amount and screen temperature. Received March 5, 2001 Revised October 29, 2001     

Climate variation and prediction of rapid intensification in tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific

Summary One of the greatest challenges in tropical weather forecasting is the rapid intensification (RI) of the tropical cyclone (TC), during which its one-minute maximum sustained wind speed increases at least 30 knots per 24 hours. Here we identify and elucidate the climatic conditions that are critical to the frequency and location of the RI on annual, intraseasonal, and interannual time scales. Whereas RI and formation share common environmental preferences, we found that the percentage of TCs with RI varies annually and from year to year. In August, only 30% of TC actually experiences RI, in contrast to the annual maximum of 47% in November. The proportion of RI in July–September is higher during El Ni?o years (53%) than the corresponding one in the La Ni?a years (37%). Three climate factors may contribute to the increase in the proportion of RI: the southward shift in the monthly or seasonal mean location of the TC formation, the increase in the low-level westerly meridional shear vorticity, and the decrease in northerly vertical shear. When the mean latitude of TC formation increases, the mixed-layer heat content decreases while TC’s inertial stability increases; both are more detrimental to the RI than to TC formation because the RI requires large amount of latent heat energy being extracted efficiently from the ocean mixed layer and requires accelerated low-level radial inflow that carries latent heat reaching the inner core region. We further demonstrate that the RI frequency in the Philippine Sea and South China Sea can be predicted 10 to 30 days in advance based on the convective anomalies in the equatorial western Pacific (5° S–5° N, 130°–150° E) on intraseasonal time scale. The Ni?o 3.4 SSTA in June is a potential predictor for the peak TC season (July–September) RI activity in the southeast quadrant of the western North Pacific (0–20° N, 140–180° E). The RI is an essential characteristic of category 4 and 5 hurricanes and super typhoons because all category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic basin and 90% of the super typhoons in the western North Pacific experience at least one RI process in their life cycles. Over the past 40 years, the annual total of RI in the western North Pacific shows pronounced interdecadal variation but no significant trend. This result suggests that the number of supper typhoons has no upward trend in the past 40 years. Our results also suggest that when the mean latitude, where the tropical storms form, shifts southward (either seasonally or from year to year) the proportion of super typhoon or major hurricane will likely increase. This shift is determined by large scale circulation change rather than local SST effects. This idea differs from the current notion that increasing SST can lead to more frequent occurrence of category 4 or 5 hurricanes through local thermodynamics. Corresponding author’s address: Bin Wang, Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii, 2525 Correa Rd., Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA (also visiting professor at the Ocean University of China)     

Sunshine duration hours over the Greek region

Summary In this study, the temporal and spatial distribution of bright sunshine hours and relative sunshine duration over Greece are presented. The datasets used for this study were obtained from the archives of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS). Furthermore, mean annual and seasonal duration of bright sunshine has been estimated from empirical formulae, which depend on the following parameters: (i) percentage of land cover around each station (radius of 20 km), (ii) distance of each station from the nearest coast, (iii) height above sea level for each station location, (iv) latitude of each station, (v) longitude of each station. Differences between measured and estimated bright sunshine hours are accounted for. In general a good relationship exists between estimated and observed sunshine values. The annual march of sunshine is simple with a maximum in July and a minimum in January or December. The spatial distribution of the annual and seasonal bright sunshine duration shows minimum values in the interior mountain areas of the Greek region (Western Macedonia, Epirus, Central Greece), increasing gradually towards the coasts of the Ionian and Aegean seas as well as from north to south. The highest sunshine values occur at the southeastern islands of the Aegean Sea and above the southern coasts of Crete, followed by Attica (Athens area) and the surrounding coastal areas, the islands of the eastern Aegean Sea and the southwestern coastal and island parts of the Ionian Sea.     

Tropical climates at the Last Glacial Maximum: a new synthesis of terrestrial palaeoclimate data. I. Vegetation, lake-levels and geochemistry

 Palaeodata in synthesis form are needed as benchmarks for the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Advances since the last synthesis of terrestrial palaeodata from the last glacial maximum (LGM) call for a new evaluation, especially of data from the tropics. Here pollen, plant-macrofossil, lake-level, noble gas (from groundwater) and δ¹⁸O (from speleothems) data are compiled for 18±2 ka (¹⁴C), 32 °N–33 °S. The reliability of the data was evaluated using explicit criteria and some types of data were re-analysed using consistent methods in order to derive a set of mutually consistent palaeoclimate estimates of mean temperature of the coldest month (MTCO), mean annual temperature (MAT), plant available moisture (PAM) and runoff (P-E). Cold-month temperature (MAT) anomalies from plant data range from −1 to −2 K near sea level in Indonesia and the S Pacific, through −6 to −8 K at many high-elevation sites to −8 to −15 K in S China and the SE USA. MAT anomalies from groundwater or speleothems seem more uniform (−4 to −6 K), but the data are as yet sparse; a clear divergence between MAT and cold-month estimates from the same region is seen only in the SE USA, where cold-air advection is expected to have enhanced cooling in winter. Regression of all cold-month anomalies against site elevation yielded an estimated average cooling of −2.5 to −3 K at modern sea level, increasing to ≈−6 K by 3000 m. However, Neotropical sites showed larger than the average sea-level cooling (−5 to −6 K) and a non-significant elevation effect, whereas W and S Pacific sites showed much less sea-level cooling (−1 K) and a stronger elevation effect. These findings support the inference that tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) were lower than the CLIMAP estimates, but they limit the plausible average tropical sea-surface cooling, and they support the existence of CLIMAP-like geographic patterns in SST anomalies. Trends of PAM and lake levels indicate wet LGM conditions in the W USA, and at the highest elevations, with generally dry conditions elsewhere. These results suggest a colder-than-present ocean surface producing a weaker hydrological cycle, more arid continents, and arguably steeper-than-present terrestrial lapse rates. Such linkages are supported by recent observations on freezing-level height and tropical SSTs; moreover, simulations of “greenhouse” and LGM climates point to several possible feedback processes by which low-level temperature anomalies might be amplified aloft. Received: 7 September 1998 / Accepted: 18 March 1999     

Solar irradiance, sunshine duration and daylight illuminance derived from METEOSAT data for some European sites

Summary Radiometric ground truth data from seven Norwegian stations (58–64° N), and from five other European stations (38–61° N), are compared to satellite-derived data in the present paper. Hourly global irradiance at ground level is estimated by the Heliosat procedure from the “visible” channel of the geostationary satellite METEOSAT. With increasing latitude this satelllite sees the earth’s surface at an increasingly unfavourable angle. Nevertheless, in this paper, global irradiance estimates reproduce high latitude ground truth data with negligible Mean Bias Deviations (MBD) and only minor deviations regarding frequency distributions. Moreover, the Root Mean Square Deviations (RMSD) are comparable to those typically seen between ground truth stations some 20–30 km apart. Using a number of auxiliary models, a multiplicity of ground level solar radiation data is obtained from satellite-derived global irradiance data, and made available at the SATEL-LIGHT www server. The accuracy of the half-hourly data thus derived from Heliosat global irradiances, using models for diffuse fraction, luminous efficacy and slope/horizontal ratios, is successfully verified against ground truth data. Received August 31, 2000/Revised January 31, 2001     

The Characteristics of Cold Air Outbreaks over the Eastern Highlands of Kenya

Summary Climatological statistics of extreme temperature events over Kenya are established from the analysis of daily and monthly maximum temperatures for a representative station (Nairobi Dagoretti Corner) over the period 1956–1997. The months of June to August were shown to be the coldest with a mean monthly maximum temperature of less than 22 °C. Seasonal (June to August) mean maximum temperature was 21.5 °C. Using this seasonal mean temperature for the period 1967–1997 delineated 1968 as the coldest year in this series and 1983 as the warmest year. Spectral analysis of the seasonal data, for both the coldest and the warmest years, revealed that the major periods were the quasi-biweekly (10 days) and the Intraseasonal Oscillations (23 days). Secondary peaks occurred at periods of 4–6 and 2.5–3.5 days. A temperature threshold of 16.7 °C during July was used to define cold air outbreaks over Nairobi. This threshold temperature of 16.7 °C was obtained from the mean July maximum temperature (20.9 °C) minus two standard deviations. Notable trends include a decrease in the frequency of station-days, between 1956 and 1997, with temperatures less than 16.7 °C during July. Surface pressure patterns indicate that the origin of the cold air is near latitude 25° S and to the east of mainland South Africa. The cold air near 25° S is advected northwards ahead of the surface pressure ridge. Received July 19, 1999 Revised January 11, 2000     

On the use of a cloud modification factor for solar UV (290–385 nm) spectral range

Summary  Knowledge of ultraviolet radiation is necessary in different applications, in the absence of measurements, this radiometric flux must be estimated from available parameters. To compute this flux under all sky conditions one must consider the influence of clouds. Clouds are the largest modulators of the solar radiative flux reaching the Earth’s surface. The amount and type of cloud cover prevailing at a given time and location largely determines the amount and type of solar radiation received at the Earth’s surface. This cloud radiative effect is different for the different solar spectral bands. In this work, we analyse the cloud radiative effect over ultraviolet radiation (290–385 nm). This could be done by defining a cloud modification Factor. We have developed such cloud modification Factor considering two different types of clouds. The efficiency of the cloud radiative effect scheme has been tested in combination with a cloudless sky empirical model using independent data sets. The performance of the model has been tested in relation to its predictive capability of global ultraviolet radiation. For this purpose, data recorded at two radiometric stations are used. The first one is located at the University of Almería, a seashore location (36.83° N, 2.41° W, 20 m a.m.s.l.), while the second one is located at Granada (37.18° N, 3.58° W, 660 m a.m.s.l.), an inland location. The database includes hourly values of the relevant variables that cover the years 1993–94 in Almería and 1994–95 in Granada. Cloud cover information provided by the Spanish Meteorological Service has been include to compute the clouds radiative effect. After our study, it appears that the combination of an appropriate cloudless sky model with the cloud modification Factor scheme provides estimates of ultraviolet radiation with mean bias deviation of about 5% that is close to experimental errors. Comparisons with similar formulations of the cloud radiative effect over the whole solar spectrum provides evidence for the spectral dependency of the cloud radiative effect. Received November 15, 1999 Revised September 11, 2000     

Interpretation of recent temperature and precipitationtrends observed in Korea

Summary  The possibility of climate change in the Korean Peninsula has been examined in view of the general increase in greenhouse gases. Analyses include changes in annual temperature and precipitation. These analyses are supplemented with our observations regarding the apparent decrease of forest areas. It was found that there was a 0.96 °C (0.42 °C per decade) increase in annual mean temperature between 1974 and 1997. The increase in large cities was 1.5 °C but only 0.58 °C at rural and marine stations. The difference in the mean temperature between large cities and rural stations was small from 1974 to 1981. However, the difference increased from 1982 to 1997. In particular, the warming appears most significant in winter. Prior to 1982, the lowest temperatures were often −18 °C in central Korea, and since then the lowest temperatures have been only −12∼−14 °C. Recently, the minimum January temperature has increased at a rate of 1.5 °C per decade. It is estimated that the increase of1 °C in annual mean temperature corresponds to about a 250 km northward shift of the subtropical zone boundary. The analysis of data from 1906 to 1997 indicates a trend of increasing annual precipitation, an increase of 182 mm during the 92-year peirod, with large year-to-year variations. More than half of the annual mean amount, 1,274 mm, occurred from June to September. Meteorological data and satellite observations suggest that changes have occurred in the characteristics of the quasi-stationary fronts that produce summer rain. In recent years scattered local heavy showers usually occur with an inactive showery front, in comparison with the classical steady rain for more than three weeks. For instance, local heavy rainfall, on 6 August 1998 was in the range of 123–481 mm. The scattered convective storms resulted in flooding with a heavy toll of approx. 500 people. The northward shift of the inactive showery front over Korea, and of a convergence zone in central China, correlate with the increase in temperature. It has been suggested that the decrease in forest areas and the change in ground cover also contribute to the warming of the Korean Peninsula. Received March 16, 2000     

The Urban Heat Island Effect at Fairbanks, Alaska

Summary  Using climatic data from Fairbanks and rurally situated Eielson Air Force Base in Interior Alaska, the growth of the Fairbanks heat island was studied for the time period 1949 – 1997. The climate records were examined to distinguish between a general warming trend and the changes due to an increasing heat island effect. Over the 49-year period, the population of Fairbanks grew by more than 500%, while the population of Eielson remained relatively constant. The mean annual heat island observed at the Fairbanks International Airport grew by 0.4 °C, with the winter months experiencing a more significant increase of 1.0 °C. Primary focus was directed toward long-term heat island characterization based on season, wind speed, cloud cover, and time of day. In all cases, the minima temperatures were affected more than maxima and periods of calm or low wind speeds, clear winter sky conditions, and nighttime exhibited the largest heat island effects. Received August 17, 1998 Revised March 26, 1999     

Effect of seasonal forcing on global circulation in a world ocean general circulation model

 Effects of the seasonal variation in thermohaline and wind forcing on the abyssal circulation are investigated by using an ocean general circulation model. To isolate effects of the seasonality in the thermohaline forcing from those in the wind forcing, we carry out three experiments with (1) annual-mean wind forcing and perpetual-winter thermohaline forcing, (2) annual-mean wind forcing and seasonal thermohaline forcing, and (3) seasonal wind forcing and seasonal thermohaline forcing. The deep water under the seasonal thermohaline forcing becomes warmer than under the perpetual-winter thermohaline forcing. Although the perpetual-winter thermohaline forcing is widely used and believed to reproduce the deep water better than the annual-mean forcing, the difference between the results of the perpetual-winter and the seasonal thermohaline forcing is significant. The seasonal variation of the Ekman convergence and divergence produces meridional overturning cells extending to the bottom because the period of seasonal cycle is shorter than the adjustment timescale by baroclinic Rossby waves. The heat transport owing to those Ekman flows and temperature anomalies makes the upper water (0–200 m) colder at low to mid-latitudes (40S–40N) and warmer at high latitudes. Also the deep water becomes warmer owing to the warming of the northern North Atlantic, the main source region of North Atlantic Deep Water. The model is also synchronously (i.e., without acceleration) integrated with seasonal forcing for 5400 y. A past study suggested that under seasonal forcing, a sufficient equilibrium state can be achieved after only decades of synchronous integration following more than 10 000 y of accelerated integration. Here, the result so obtained is compared with that of the 5400-y synchronous integration. The difference in the global average temperature is as small as 0.12 °C, and most of the difference is confined to the Southern Ocean. Received: 1 May 1998 / Accepted: 5 January 1999     

Intraseasonal variability of the Tropical Easterly Jet

Summary By analyzing 12-year (1979–1990) 200 hPa wind data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis, we demonstrate that the intraseasonal time scale (30–60 days) variability of the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) reported in individual case studies occurs during most years. In the entrance region (east of ∼70° E), axis of the TEJ at 200 hPa is found along the near equatorial latitudes during monsoon onset/monsoon revivals and propagates northward as the monsoon advances over India. This axis is found along ∼5° N and ∼15° N during active monsoon and break monsoon conditions respectively. Examination of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis wind data also confirms the northward propagation of the TEJ on intraseasonal time scales. During the intraseasonal northward propagations, axis of the TEJ is found about 10°–15° latitudes south of the well-known intraseasonally northward propagating monsoon convective belts. Because of this 10°–15° displacement, axis of the TEJ arrives over a location about two weeks after the arrival of the monsoon convection. Systematic shifting of the locations by convection, low level monsoon flow and TEJ in a collective way during different phases of the monsoon suggests that they all may be related.     

On summing the components of radiative forcing of climate change

 Radiative forcing is a useful concept in determining the potential influence of a particular mechanism of climate change. However, due to the increased number of forcing agents identified over the past decade, the total radiative forcing is difficult to assess. By assigning a range of probability distribution functions to the individual radiative forcings and using a Monte-Carlo approach, we estimate the total radiative forcing since pre-industrial times including all quantitative radiative forcing estimates to date. The resulting total radiative forcing has a 75–97% probability of being positive (or similarly a 3–25% probability of being negative), with mean radiative forcing ranging from +0.68 to +1.34 W m⁻², and median radiative forcing ranging from +0.94 to +1.39 W m⁻². Received: 14 March 2001 / Accepted: 1 June 2001     

The Siberian High and climate change over middle to high latitude Asia

Summary The Siberian High is the most important atmospheric centre of action in Eurasia during the winter months. Here its variability and relationship with temperature and precipitation is investigated for the period 1922 to 2000. The pronounced weakening of the Siberian High during the last ∼ 20 years is its most remarkable feature. Mean temperature, averaged over middle to high latitude Asia (30° E–140° E, 30° N–70° N), is correlated with the Siberian High central intensity (SHCI) with correlation coefficient of − 0.58 (1922–1999), and for precipitation, the correlation coefficient is − 0.44 (1922–1998). Taking the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the SHCI, the Eurasian teleconnection pattern (EU), and the Southern Oscillation (SO) index into account, 72 percent of the variance in temperature can be explained for the period 1949–1997 (for precipitation the variance is 26 percent), with the AO alone explaining 30 percent of the variance, and the Siberian High contributing 24 percent. The precipitation variance explained by the Siberian High is only 9.8 percent of the total. Received January 2, 2001 Revised November 24, 2001     

The relationship between lightning activity and surface wet bulb temperature and its variation with latitude in Australia

Summary Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is the driving force for thunderstorm development. CAPE is closely controlled by wet bulb temperature. The lightning activity measured by a network of ten lightning flash counters widely distributed across continental Australia was studied as a function of wet bulb temperature. At each of the stations, the monthly total of lightning ground flashes, N, increased sharply with the increase of the monthly mean daily maximum wet bulb temperature, T_w, max. The dependence was strongest in the tropics and became less pronounced at temperate latitudes. In Darwin (latitude 12° S), the lightning ground flash activity increased by over three orders of magnitude over a 7 °C range of T_w, max. The corresponding increases for Coffs Harbour (latitude 30° S) and for Melbourne (latitude 38° S) were about one and a half orders of magnitude and about half an order of magnitude, respectively, each over a 10 °C range of T_w, max. Power law approximations were derived for each of the ten stations and showed that the logarithm of N was directly proportional to the power, P, of T_w, max. The value of P showed a sharp exponential decrease with increasing latitude away from the equator.     

Eastern Mediterranean summer temperatures since 730 CE from Mt. Smolikas tree-ring densities

The Mediterranean has been identified as particularly vulnerable to climate change, yet a high-resolution temperature reconstruction extending back into the Medieval Warm Period is still lacking. Here we present such a record from a high-elevation site on Mt. Smolikas in northern Greece, where some of Europe’s oldest trees provide evidence of warm season temperature variability back to 730 CE. The reconstruction is derived from 192 annually resolved, latewood density series from ancient living and relict Pinus heldreichii trees calibrating at r1911–2015 = 0.73 against regional July–September (JAS) temperatures. Although the recent 1985–2014 period was the warmest 30-year interval (JAS Twrt.1961–1990 = + 0.71 °C) since the eleventh century, temperatures during the ninth to tenth centuries were even warmer, including the warmest reconstructed 30-year period from 876–905 (+ 0.78 °C). These differences between warm periods are statistically insignificant though. Several distinct cold episodes punctuate the Little Ice Age, albeit the coldest 30-year period is centered during high medieval times from 997–1026 (− 1.63 °C). Comparison with reconstructions from the Alps and Scandinavia shows that a similar cold episode occurred in central Europe but was absent at northern latitudes. The reconstructions also reveal different millennial-scale temperature trends (NEur = − 0.73 °C/1000 years, CEur = − 0.13 °C, SEur = + 0.23 °C) potentially triggered by latitudinal changes in summer insolation due to orbital forcing. These features, the opposing millennial-scale temperature trends and the medieval multi-decadal cooling recorded in Central Europe and the Mediterranean, are not well captured in state-of-the-art climate model simulations.     

Hydrometeorological processes in semi-arid western India: insights from long term isotope record of daily precipitation

Long term (2005–2016) daily precipitation isotope data (δ18O, δD and d-excess) from Ahmedabad in semi-arid Western India are examined in light of various meteorological parameters and air parcel trajectories to identify prominent patterns in the isotopic character and discern the underlying hydrometeorological processes. One of the most prominent and systematic annual patterns is the isotopic depletion (average δ18O: − 2.5‰ in Jun–Jul; − 5.2‰ in Aug–Sept) in the second half of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), which is observed in the 11 out of the 12 years of this study. Four geographically feasible causal factors have been examined if they contribute to observed late monsoon isotopic depletion. These factors are: (1) increased contribution of terrestrially recycled vapor; (2) intra-seasonal change in sea-surface, surface-air and cloud base temperatures; (3) increased rain-out fraction from marine vapor parcel; and (4) increase in relative proportion of convective rain. It is inferred from the present study that isotopic depletion in the second half of ISM is associated with: (1) increased contribution (45% from 36%) of terrestrially recycled moisture; (2) 1.9° C lower cloud base temperature; (3) increased rainout fraction due to decreased wind velocity (6.9 m/s from 8.8 m/s); and (4) an increase of 22.3% in the proportion of convective rain. Daily rain events with atypical isotopic composition (20‰ < d-excess < 0‰) are ascribed mainly to local weather perturbations causing sudden updraft of moist air facilitating terrestrial recycling of water vapor.     

Spatial and temporal patterns of dry spell lengths in the Iberian Peninsula for the second half of the twentieth century

Summary Daily pluviometric records of 43 meteorological stations across the Iberian Peninsula have permitted a detailed analysis of dry spell patterns for the period 1951–2000 by distinguishing daily amount thresholds of 0.1, 1.0, 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day. The analyses are based on three annual series, namely the number of dry spells, N, the average dry spell length, L, and the extreme dry spell length, L _max. First, the statistical significance of local trends for the annual series of N, L and L _max has been investigated by means of the Mann-Kendall test and significant field trends have been established by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Clear signs of negative field trends are detected for N (1.0 and 10.0 mm/day) and L (0.1 mm/day). Second, the Weibull model fits well the empirical distributions of dry spell lengths for all the rain gauges, whatever the daily amount threshold, with a well ranged spatial distribution of their parameters u and k. On the basis of the Weibull distribution, return period maps for 2, 5, 10, 25 and 50 years have been obtained for dry spell lengths with respect to the four daily threshold levels. While for 0.1 and 1.0 mm/day the longest dry spells are expected at the south of the Iberian Peninsula, for 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day they are mostly detected at the southeast. Finally, the elapsed time between consecutive dry spells has been analysed by considering the same rain amount thresholds and different dry spell lengths at increasing intervals of 10 days. This analysis makes evident a significant negative field trend of the elapsed time between consecutive dry spells of lengths ranging from 10 to 20 days for daily amount thresholds of 1.0, 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day. Authors’ addresses: X. Lana, C. Serra, Departament de Física i Enginyeria Nuclear, ETSEIB, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Av. Diagonal 647 planta 11, 08028 Barcelona, Spain; M. D. Marínez, Departament de Física Aplicada, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, 08028 Barcelona, Spain; A. Burgue?o, Departament de Meteorologia i Astronomia, Universitat de Barcelona, 08028 Barcelona, Spain; J. Martín-Vide, L. Gómez, Grup de Climatologia, Universitat de Barcelona, 08028 Barcelona, Spain.