南海海浪场与厄尔尼诺的相关性分析

利用来自ECMWF具有较高时空分辨率的近45年ERA-40海表风场资料和将风浪、涌浪分离的ERA-40海浪再分析资料,分析了南海海表风场、海浪场与厄尔尼诺的相关性.研究发现:(1)南海的海表风场、海浪场与nin03指数有着密切的关系,其中涌浪、混合浪与nin03指数的相关性好于风浪;7月和10月海浪场与nin03指数的相关性好于1月和4月,其中4月相关性为全年最低.(2)南海海表风场、风浪、涌浪、混合浪场第一模态空间分布均呈现东北-西南走向的高值区分布,风浪场与海表风场具有较好的对应关系,而混合浪场则更多的是包含了涌浪的信息.(3)南海海表风场、风浪、涌浪、混合浪场存在3-3.75年的共同周期.南海的海表风场、风浪场与nin03指数存在的3.3年左右、5年左右的共同周期,涌浪场、混合浪场与nin03指数存在的3-4年左右的共同周期.     

季风低频振荡与厄尔尼诺的发生发展

基于NCEP／NCAR逐日再分析资料，应用小波分析方法研究讨论了西太平洋、南海、阿拉伯海等近赤道季风区850hPa纬向风场低频振荡与ElNino发生发展的相关特征。研究发现，在El Nino发生前期，30－50d低频振荡会出现显著的增强，El Nino发生后，30－50d低频振荡明显减小，120－150d准定常波动加强。分析表明，近赤道季风区显著低频振荡是El Nino发生发展的一个重要前兆，低频振荡能量向甚低频段的转移和输送可能是El Nino发生的重要机理。     

El Nino and anti-El Nino events in 1854-1987

-Using the COADS data set of sea surface temperature in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific, thirty one El Nino events and twenty four anti -El Nino events were identified for the period from 1854 to 1987. The results were compared with those of the other authors. The El Nino events (or anti -El Nino events ) are classified into two groups according to the timing of occrrence of the events: one starts at the first half of a year, another begins at the second half of a year. Both 1982-1983 and 1986-1987 events fall into the second group, which are characterized by the eastward migration of the positive anomaly of the sea surface temperature and the significant increasing of the anomaly in September or October.     

厄尔尼诺(El Nino)事件与东南沿海热带气旋活动的相关分析

统计分析了近50 a(1949～1998年)厄尔尼诺(ELNINO)事件以及我国东南沿海热带气旋历史资料,得出了厄尔尼诺(ELNINO)事件与我国东南沿海热带气旋的活动频数、移动路径、强度以及相关灾害的关系。     

El Nino and the Southern Oscillation

Using the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS), wind, surface pressure and SST fields in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific and the Equatorial South Indian Ocean were analysed comprehensively.lt is pointed out that the seesaw between surface pressure in the Equatorial South Indian Ocean and the Equatorial Southeast Pacific causes the seesaw between the wind fields in the two areas, and the seesaw of wind fields results in the seesaw of SST between Indonesia and the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. El Nino is the response of ocean to the forcing of monsoon system in the Indian Ocean and the trade system in the Pacific.     

The circularly propagating pattern of the low-frequencyfluctuations of monthly MSL in the tropical PacificOcean and its correlation with El Nino

The long-term time series analysis of the SST (sea surface temperature) in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean and the monthly MSL (mean sea level) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is conducted. Their quasiperiodic and low-frequency oscillation features are revealed. The significant periods of low-frequency fluctuations for monthly MSL in the area of 20°N-20° S are between 43. 5 months and 50. 0 months, approximating closely to 47. 6 months which is the significant period of SST in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean. From the results of space-spectral analysis, the low-frequency fluctations of monthly MSL in the tropical Pacific Ocean appear to have a anticlockwise circularly-propagating pattern, which is, the Eastern Pacific Ocean (off-shore of Mexico) →the area of NEC (North Equatorial Current) →the Western Equatorial Pacific Ocean→the area of NECC (North Equatorial Counter-Current)→the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean. The phases of the pattern correspond to those of El Nino cycle. On the basis     

The numerical criteria and characteristics of El Nino and La Nina

-By using the sea surface temperature (SST) index of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean provided by Climate Analysis Center of U. S. A. , the numerical criteria of El Nino and La Nina events and their quantitative characteristics were calculated. Results show that the El Nino event was characterized with strong intensity, shorter life cycle and significant mature phase; however, the La Nina event has longer live cycle, weak intensity, insignificant mature phase. Through teleconnection analysis, it is found that the intensity index of SST over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean leads the intensity index of subtropical high by six months or so. During the El Nino years, the tropical cyclone over the northwestern Pacific is fewer than normal but stronger, and its genesis area shifts southeastward apparently; while in the La Nina years the number of tropical cyclones are larger.     

The strong winter monsoon in East Asia and El Nino

- The relationship between meridional wind in mid - latitudes of East Asia and SST in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific is analysed in this paper. It is pointed out that there exist close relations between the seasonal changes of the meridional wind in mid - latitudes of East Asia and SST in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. The intensification of north winds over East Asia also plays an important role in the rise of SST in Equatorial Eastern Pacific one year later. The strong winter monsoon usually occurs in previous winter of El Nino and it causes low temperature to a great extent in China . The low temperature in China can be regarded as a precursor of El Nino.     

厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜现象及其预报

厄尔尼诺 (太平洋中部和东部的海水及其上空的大气圈 ,周期性重复的显著升温 )和拉尼娜 (大致在同一海区 ,同样大规模的海水降温 )现象对几乎整个地球的天气 ,甚至对气候条件所起的明显作用这一事实是不容置疑的。但是预报这两个过程的强度、开始和终止的时间却仍然是一种美好的愿望。可以认为 ,在阿斯彭德依科技局大气研究部SmithI领导下的澳大利亚学者的工作 ,向前跨了一步。他们使用了十几年来对赤道和热带太平洋地区表层水参数的自然观察资料。在澳大利亚主要地区上空 ,拉尼娜现象通常都伴随着与年平均值相比非常丰富的降水 ;厄尔尼诺…     

厄尔尼诺期间和后期南海海面温度的两次显著增暖过程

通过分析ICOADS海洋气象资料,结合ISCCP短波辐射和OISST海面温度,研究并探讨了ENSO等大尺度海气相互作用过程背景下南海海表面温度（SST）的年际变化。研究表明,南海SSTA的年际变化和ENSO关系密切,并且分为两个阶段。以增暖事件为例,在厄尔尼诺（El Nino）发生年的冬季和消亡年的夏季,南海出现了两次显著增暖。第一次增暖出现在El Nino盛期,是El Nino影响的一部分,这时南海云量减少,净太阳辐射通量增加,SST上升。第二次增暖出现在El Nino结束后的夏季,不是El Nino直接作用的结果;这时夏季风减弱,一方面使得海洋的潜热损失减少,另一方面减弱了越南东部沿岸的上升流,两者的共同作用导致SST增加。     

两类El Niño不同衰减型的演变特征及其与我国夏季降水的联系

利用中国气象局743站日降水、NCEP-/NCAR大气环流、英国气象局Hadley中心全球月平均海表温度（SST）等资料,探讨了两类El Niño不同衰减型的演变特征及其对衰减阶段夏季（6-8月）我国降水异常分布的可能影响。根据海表温度异常（SSTA）沿赤道（5°S~5°N）的演变特征,EP-El Niño存在两种衰减型:自东向西（E-W）衰减（大于0.5℃的海温正距平首先在南美沿岸消失,并向西扩展）和自西向东（W-E）衰减（大于0.5℃的海温正距平首先在赤道中太平洋消失,并向东扩展）;CP-El Niño存在3种衰减方式:对称（S）衰减（赤道中太平洋暖海温的发展和衰减关于某一峰值对称）、延迟（P）衰减（衰减阶段紧接着呈现EP-El Niño分布）、突然（A）衰减（衰减阶段紧接着发生EP-La Niña事件）。对于EP-El Niño,在华北、华南、长江和黄河（简称两河）之间及两河的上游地区,E-W与W-E衰减阶段夏季降水呈现完全相反的异常分布特征。E-W衰减阶段夏季两河之间及上游地区偏旱的可能性显著增大,华北地区降水异常偏多,长江以南略偏多;而W-E衰减阶段夏季,两河之间及上游地区降水偏多,降水异常大值中心主要位于沿江地区,华南大部和华北地区降水明显偏少。对于CP-El Niño的3种衰减方式:夏季降水异常大值带在S衰减方式下主要位于黄河和淮河之间;在P方式衰减时,出现在长江流域;而在A型衰减时,主要位于黄河下游地区。S和A衰减方式下,东北大部尤其东北北部降水偏少,而处于P衰减时,东北大部降水明显偏多;在西南地区,S衰减时夏季降水总体偏多,A衰减时情况相反;在西北北部地区,A衰减时偏旱,而S和P衰减时降水总体偏多。不同的衰减方式均对应不同的降水异常空间分布,区分衰减型使得两类El Niño次年我国夏季降水异常显著区的分布范围和信号强度均较未区分衰减型时有较好的改善,为我国汛期降水短期气候预测工作提供了重要依据。     

Air pressure fluctuations in the North Atlantic and their relationship with El Niño-southern oscillations

Seasonal and interannual variability of the pressure field and indices of the North Atlantic atmosphere zonal circulation are analysed using historical (1894–1988) observations. It is shown that fluctuations of the index of North Atlantic oscillations (NAO) and that of the eastward transport give evidence of the interannual fluctuations with the typical time scale being 2–7 years. It is shown that the magnitude of interannual NAO index variability exceeds the typical magnitude of seasonal variations, particularly in winter. The time scale of NAO index variations and eastward transport coincides with the typicalEl Niño-southern oscillations (ENSO) temporal scale. The amplitudes of the annual, semi-annual harmonics, and high-frequency fluctuations of the NAO index increase during a typical ENSO event at least by a factor of 2.Translated by V. Puchkin.     

厄尔尼诺和反厄尔尼诺与登陆斗门-厓县热带气旋的统计关系

ENSO事件是海—气相互作用的一种突出表现。它的出现会引发世界范围内的气候异常，从而导致台风活动的异常。根据1884—2000年的台风资料，采用统计的方法分析厄尔尼诺(暖事件)和反厄尔尼诺(冷事件)与登陆斗门—厓县热带气旋的关系得出：中等强度的冷、暖事件与登陆斗门—厓县热带气旋个数关系不明显：而在强或弱冷、暖事件中，冷事件影响年登陆斗门—厓县的热带气旋明显偏多。特别是在冷、暖事件影响下，登陆斗门—厓县热带气旋异常偏多年中，冷事件影响年占了64％。     

厄尔尼诺与影响福建的热带气旋

资料统计分析显示,ＥｌＮｉｎｏ年,影响福建的热带气旋较常年显著偏少,ＬａＮｉｎａ年,影响福建热带的气旋较常年偏多,ｔ检验表明,两者之间差异显著。其机制是,ＥｌＮｉｎｏ活动期间,西太平洋副热带高压强度大,位置偏南、偏西、ＩＴＣＺ位置偏南,热带气旋生成区对流活动弱,不利于热带气旋的生成和北上影响福建,ＬａＮｉｎｅ年,副热带高中度北,位置偏北,偏东,ＩＴＣＺ位置偏北,热带气旋生成区对流活动旺盛,有利于热     

Synoptic-scale disturbances over the northern South China Sea and their responses to El Niño

Using surface and aerological meteorological observations obtained at the Xisha Automatic Weather Station and three moored buoys along the continental slope, characteristics of the synoptic-scale disturbances over the northern South China Sea (NSCS) are extensively studied. The power spectra of surface and aerological observations suggest a synoptic feature with a pronounced energy peak at a period of 5-8 d and a weak peak at 3-4 d. The standard deviation of the synoptic temperature component derived at Xisha Station from 1976 to 2011 indicates that the strongest variability normally exists in August all through the whole troposphere. At the interannual scale, it is found that El Niño plays an important role in regulating the synoptic disturbances of atmosphere. The vertical synoptic disturbances have a double active peak following El Niño condition. The first peak usually occurs during the mature phase of El Niño, and the second one occurs in the summer of decay year. Comparing with the summer of developing years, the summer of the decaying year of El Niño has more active and stronger synoptic disturbances, especially for the 5-8 d period variations.     

Changes of equatorial wind fields in the Western Pacific and El Nino

The relationship between SST in the Eastern Pacific and equatorial wind fields in the Western Pacific is analysed by using COADS.It is pointed out that in the year before El Nino , the continuative easterly anomalies and the meridional anomalies blowing from the Equator to both sides in the Equatorial Western Pacific cause the sea level in the Western Pacific to rise higher than in the Eastern Pacific and the sea level at the Equator to drop lower than on both sides of it. In the El Nino year, the westerly anomalies and the meridional anomalies blowing from both sides to the Equator bring warm water to build up around the Equator. At such times Kelvin waves are generated and they play an important role in raising SST in the Eastern Pacific. It is also emphatically pointed out that in the El Nino year the two maxima of the equatorial westerly anomalies, the two cross-equatorial air flows from the Northern Hemisphere to the Southern one and the two maxima of the near-equatorial tropical cyclones in the Eq     

Characteristic mode model of tropical Pacific Ocean and dynamic mechanism of El Nino

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厄尔尼诺与甘肃河东秋雨关系分析

利用1951～2006年天水、岷县、临夏和兰州4站秋季(9～10月)降水量资料,NINO综合区(NINO 1+2+3+4区)海温距平指数资料和北太平洋海温资料,分析了甘肃河东秋雨的气候变化及其与厄尔尼诺和前期热带海温的关系.发现甘肃河东秋雨存在着明显的年代际变化;厄尔尼诺(拉尼娜)事件与甘肃河东秋雨关系密切;前期6、7、8月份热带海温距平分布和热带关键区海温异常变化对甘肃河东秋雨有很好的预测指示意义.     

热带太平洋海面风的年际变化对海平面变化的影响

海平面变化研究的意义在于掌握其变化规律,预测其未来变化及其可能对人类生存生活环境产生的影响。本文使用随机动态和相关分析方法分析卫星高度计资料,结果发现,除了显著的季节信号外,全球海平面存在显著的2～7a的年际周期,相关分析结果显示,这一年际周期跟ENSO密切相关。在太平洋不同纬度海平面对ENSO事件的响应整体上呈现出高纬衰减的变化特征。ENSO期间海平面变化剧烈,在热带太平洋区域,海平面变化受纬向风应力的调制,具有区域特征,海平面的年际变化与赤道流相关达0.6以上,揭示了风主要是通过Ekman作用影响海平面变化。