中国海域地震区划及关键问题研究

国家重点研发计划项目《海域地震区划关键技术研究》已实施3年,进入项目结题阶段,已形成海域地震区划方法与技术体系,研究成果为即将开展的中国海域地震区划图编制工作提供技术支撑.项目组分析和探讨了海域地震区划研究基础与存在的问题,结合所关注的关键科学和技术问题,介绍和分析了主要研究成果和进展,包括海域断裂活动性探测和地震构造...     

胶东半岛地区震源波谱参数研究

利用山东数字地震台网记录到的胶东半岛及附近地区2010年以来的地震波形资料,采用Brune模型,并结合遗传算法反演了本区134次2.0级以上地震的震源波谱参数.结果表明胶东半岛地区中小地震的地震矩在9.76×1011～5.9×1014N·M之间;应力降范围在0.017～25MPa之间,均值是0.97MPa;视应力范围在0.06～10.2MPa,平均应力水平在0.396MPa.地震矩、应力降和视应力都与震级呈正相关关系,拐角频率与震级的关系不是很明显;地震矩和拐角频率成负相关关系.根据本区震源参数和震级的定量统计关系,去除震级影响,通过应力降和视应力随时间的变化得到目前正处于应力的释放时期.     

Seismicity of the northernmost part of the Red Sea (1995–1999)

Seismicity in the northernmost part of the Red Sea has been studied using data from Hurghada Seismological Network in addition to readings from the existing neighbouring networks. Relocated events in addition to data from national centers are used to obtain a complete and true picture for the seismicity of the area. The spatial distribution of earthquakes defines three earthquake zones in the Gulf of Aqaba and three zones at the entrance of the Gulf of Suez and southern tip of Sinai Peninsula. The thermal activity and the triple junction nature control the activity in this area. The activity defines also an active trend extending from the southern tip of Sinai Peninsula to the median zone of the Red Sea. The seismicity of this trend is probably related to the active spreading zone associated with the opening of the Red Sea. The b-values are derived for the entrance areas of the two gulfs and for Gulf of Aqaba. Values of b are 1.35 for the triple junction region, 1.13 for the activity before the 22 November 1995 Gulf of Aqaba mainshock and 1.25 for the aftershocks of this event.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Thailand

A set of probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Thailand has been derived using procedures developed for the latest US National Seismic Hazard Maps. In contrast to earlier hazard maps for this region, which are mostly computed using seismic source zone delineations, the presented maps are based on the combination of smoothed gridded seismicity, crustal-fault, and subduction source models. Thailand’s composite earthquake catalogue is revisited and expanded, covering a study area limited by 0°–30°N Latitude and 88°–110°E Longitude and the instrumental period from 1912 to 2007. The long-term slip rates and estimates of earthquake size from paleoseismological studies are incorporated through a crustal fault source model. Furthermore, the subduction source model is used to model the megathrust Sunda subduction zones, with variable characteristics along the strike of the faults. Epistemic uncertainty is taken into consideration by the logic tree framework incorporating basic quantities, such as different source modelling, maximum cut-off magnitudes and ground motion prediction equations. The ground motion hazard map is presented over a 10 km grid in terms of peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration at 0.2, 1.0, and 2.0 undamped natural periods and a 5% critical damping ratio for 10 and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. The presented maps give expected ground motions that are based on more extensive data sources than applied in the development of previous maps. The main findings are that northern and western Thailand are subjected to the highest hazard. The largest contributors to short- and long-period ground motion hazard in the Bangkok region are from the nearby active faults and Sunda subduction zones, respectively.     

The Red Sea outflow regulated by the Indian monsoon

To investigate why the Red Sea water overflows less in summer and more in winter, we have developed a locally high-resolution global OGCM with transposed poles in the Arabian peninsula and India. Based on a series of sensitivity experiments with different sets of idealized atmospheric forcing, the present study shows that the summer cessation of the strait outflow is remotely induced by the monsoonal wind over the Indian Ocean, in particular that over the western Arabian Sea. During the southwest monsoon (May–September), thermocline in the Gulf of Aden shoals as a result of coastal Ekman upwelling induced by the predominantly northeastward wind in the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. Because this shoaling is maximum during the southwest summer monsoon, the Red Sea water is blocked at the Bab el Mandeb Strait by upwelling of the intermediate water of the Gulf of Aden in late summer. The simulation also shows the three-dimensional evolution of the Red Sea water tongue at the mid-depths in the Gulf of Aden. While the tongue meanders, the discharged Red Sea outflow water (RSOW) (incoming Indian Ocean intermediate water (IOIW)) is always characterized by anticyclonic (cyclonic) vorticity, as suggested from the potential vorticity difference.     

Estimation of seismic hazard in the Kaliningrad region

The paper discusses problems of seismic zoning of the Kaliningrad region, where a series of perceptible earthquakes occurred in 2004; the strongest event had a magnitude of M _s = 4.3 and produced shakings of an intensity of 6 in the coastal zone of the Sambiiskii Peninsula, classified as a 5-intensity zone. The enhanced seismic effect is shown to be caused by bad ground conditions, long-term action of seismic effects, resonance phenomena, and other factors. To gain additional constraints on the seismic hazard degree in the Kaliningrad region, the paper discusses an improved version of the model of earthquake sources underlying the compilation of normative maps of seismic zoning (OSR-97). Modified fragments of OSR-97 probability maps of the Kaliningrad region are constructed at different levels of probability that the seismic effect indicated in the maps will be exceeded over 50 yr. It is shown that additional seismological investigations should be conducted in this region.     

Anisotropic elastic full‐waveform inversion of walkaway vertical seismic profiling data from the Arabian Gulf

Borehole seismic addresses the need for high‐resolution images and elastic parameters of the subsurface. Full‐waveform inversion of vertical seismic profile data is a promising technology with the potential to recover quantitative information about elastic properties of the medium. Full‐waveform inversion has the capability to process the entire wavefield and to address the wave propagation effects contained in the borehole data—multi‐component measurements; anisotropic effects; compressional and shear waves; and transmitted, converted, and reflected waves and multiples. Full‐waveform inversion, therefore, has the potential to provide a more accurate result compared with conventional processing methods. We present a feasibility study with results of the application of high‐frequency (up to 60 Hz) anisotropic elastic full‐waveform inversion to a walkaway vertical seismic profile data from the Arabian Gulf. Full‐waveform inversion has reproduced the majority of the wave events and recovered a geologically plausible layered model with physically meaningful values of the medium.     

Microseismicity around rupture area of the 1944 Tonankai earthquake from ocean bottom seismograph observations

Along the Nankai trough, southwestern Japan, the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) is subducting beneath the Eurasian plate, and large interplate earthquakes have occurred repeatedly with a recurrence interval of about 100-200 years. The most recent large thrust event in the eastern Nankai trough off Kii Peninsula was the 1944 Tonankai earthquake. In this region, current seismicity is very low and hypocenters are not determined accurately by the land seismic network. We conducted microseismicity observations around the rupture area of the 1944 Tonankai earthquake using ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs). Hypocenters were determined using a 2-D seismic velocity structure model based on an airgun-OBS seismic survey. Results obtained show that the seismicity was relatively active near the trough axis. These earthquakes may relate to deformation of the subducting Philippine Sea plate. On the other hand, microseismicity in the rupture area of the 1944 Tonankai earthquake was very low. This low-level seismic activity in the co-seismic rupture area of the 1944 Tonankai earthquake likely relates to a single large asperity off Kii Peninsula.     

Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.     

Spatial sensitivity of seismic hazard results to different background seismic activity and temporal earthquake occurrence models

Spatial sensitivity of seismic hazard results to different models with respect to background seismic activity and earthquake occurrence in time is investigated. For the contribution of background seismic activity to seismic hazard, background area source with uniform seismicity and spatially smoothed seismicity models are taken into consideration. For the contribution of faults, through characteristic earthquakes, both the memoryless Poisson and the time dependent renewal models are utilized. A case study, involving the assessment of seismic hazard for the Bursa province in Turkey, is conducted in order to examine quantitatively the influence of these models on seismic hazard results. The spatial variation of the difference in Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values obtained from these different models is presented in the form of difference maps for return periods of 475 and 2475 years. Best estimate seismic hazard maps for PGA and Spectral Accelerations (SA) at 0.2 and 1.0 s are obtained by using the logic tree method.     

Spatially smoothed seismicity modeling of seismic hazard in Slovenia

A progress report on the mapping effort for construction of a peak ground acceleration (PGA) map of Slovenia for 475-year return period for rock and firm soil is presented. The methodology is similar to that recently applied in Central and Eastern United States. It is based on historical seismicity spatially smoothed to different length scales. The procedure is described by Frankel (1995). He uses the characteristic earthquake recurrence relationship and in his firt version four different seismicity models. We also use four seismicity models. But instead of characteristic earthquake recurrence, we use the doubly truncated exponential magnitude-frequency relationship; no evidence of characteristic earthquakes in Slovenia has been found yet. Three of our models are similar to Frankel's first three models. Model 1 uses spatially smoothed activity rate based on magnitude 3.7 and above events since 1880. Model 2 deals with spatially smoothed activity rate based on magnitude 5.0 abd above events since 1690. Model 3 smoothes the observed activity over the entire region; it represents a uniform seismicity zone. Frankel skipped this model in his latest version (Frankel et al. 1996). In model 4, we introduce a new approach of calculating seismic activity rate taking into account released seismic energy. The ground motion attenuation model of Pugliese and Sabetta (1989) is used for all models. PGA maps for models 1, 2, 3 and 4 have been calculated, and a weighted mean map derived from them. A map of model 1 has been compared with the corresponding source zone map; the two maps do not differ significantly. A worst-case map derived from all four models has also been produced.     

The effects of asymmetric potential vorticity forcing on the instability of South Asia High and Indian summer monsoon onset

Based on the theory of potential vorticity(PV),the unstable development of the South Asia High(SAH)due to diabatic heating and its impacts on the Indian Summer Monsoon(ISM)onset are studied via a case diagnosis of 1998.The Indian Summer Monsoon onset in 1998 is related to the rapidly strengthening and northward moving of a tropical cyclone originally located in the south of Arabian Sea.It is demonstrated that the rapid enhancement of the cyclone is a consequence of a baroclinic development characterized by the phase-lock of high PV systems in the upper and lower troposphere.Both the intensification of the SAH and the development of the zonal asymmetric PV forcing are forced by the rapidly increasing latent heat released from the heavy rainfall in East Asia and South East Asia after the onsets of the Bay of Bengal(BOB)monsoon and the South China Sea(SCS)monsoon.High PV moves southwards along the intensified northerlies on the eastern side of the SAH and travels westwards on its south side,which can reach its northwest.Such a series of high PV eddies are transported to the west of the SAH continuously,which is the main source of PV anomalies in the upper troposphere over the Arabian Sea from late spring to early summer.A cyclonic curvature on the southwest of the SAH associated with increasing divergence,which forms a strong upper tropospheric pumping,is generated by the anomalous positive PV over the Arabian Sea on 355 K.The cyclone in the lower troposphere moves northwards from low latitudes of the Arabian Sea,and the upper-layer high PV extends downwards and southwards.Baroclinic development thus occurs and the tropical low-pressure system develops into an explosive vortex of the ISM,which leads to the onset of the ISM.In addition,evolution of subtropical anticyclone over the Arabian Peninsula is another important factor contributing to the onset of the ISM.Before the onset,the surface sensible heating on the Arabian Peninsula is very strong.Consequently the subtropical anticyclone which dominated the Arabian Sea in spring retreats westwards to the Arabian Peninsula and intensifies rapidly.The zonal asymmetric PV forcing develops gradually with high PV eddies moving southwards along northerlies on the eastern side of the anticyclone,and a high PV trough is formed in the middle troposphere over the Arabian Sea,which is favorable to the explosive barotropic development of the tropical cyclone into the vortex.Results from this study demonstrate that the ISM onset,which is different from the BOB and the SCS monsoon onset,is a special dynamical as well as thermodynamic process occurring under the condition of fully coupling of the upper,middle,and lower tropospheric circulations.     

CRS-stack-based seismic imaging considering top-surface topography

In this case study we consider the seismic processing of a challenging land data set from the Arabian Peninsula. It suffers from rough top‐surface topography, a strongly varying weathering layer, and complex near‐surface geology. We aim at establishing a new seismic imaging workflow, well‐suited to these specific problems of land data processing. This workflow is based on the common‐reflection‐surface stack for topography, a generalized high‐density velocity analysis and stacking process. It is applied in a non‐interactive manner and provides an entire set of physically interpretable stacking parameters that include and complement the conventional stacking velocity. The implementation introduced combines two different approaches to topography handling to minimize the computational effort: after initial values of the stacking parameters are determined for a smoothly curved floating datum using conventional elevation statics, the final stack and also the related residual static correction are applied to the original prestack data, considering the true source and receiver elevations without the assumption of nearly vertical rays. Finally, we extrapolate all results to a chosen planar reference level using the stacking parameters. This redatuming procedure removes the influence of the rough measurement surface and provides standardized input for interpretation, tomographic velocity model determination, and post‐stack depth migration. The methodology of the residual static correction employed and the details of its application to this data example are discussed in a separate paper in this issue. In view of the complex near‐surface conditions, the imaging workflow that is conducted, i.e. stack – residual static correction – redatuming – tomographic inversion – prestack and post‐stack depth migration, leads to a significant improvement in resolution, signal‐to‐noise ratio and reflector continuity.     

A comparison of seismic risk maps for Italy

National seismic risk maps are an important risk mitigation tool as they can be used for the prioritization of regions within a country where retrofitting of the building stock or other risk mitigation measures should take place. The production of a seismic risk map involves the convolution of seismic hazard data, vulnerability predictions for the building stock and exposure data. The seismic risk maps produced in Italy over the past 10 years are compared in this paper with recent proposals for seismic risk maps based on state-of-the-art seismic hazard data and mechanics-based vulnerability assessment procedures. The aim of the paper is to open the discussion for the way in which future seismic risk maps could be produced, making use of the most up-to-date information in the fields of seismic hazard evaluation and vulnerability assessment.     

Seismicity of the Sinai subplate region:kinematicimplications

The seismic activity of the Sinai subplate region on the basis of both historical (2200B.C.–1900 A.D.) and recent (1900–1995) earthquake catalogs have been evaluated.Moderateand large earthquakes occurred mainly at the subplate boundaries, Dead Sea Fault (DSF) systemin the east, Cyprean arc in the north, and Suez rift in the southwest.Along the Dead Sea Fault system the activity concentrated at the southern andcentralsegments. The earthquake distribution appears to have a tendency to cluster in time andspace.The swarms (February, 1983; April, 1990; August, 1993 and November, 1995) in the GulfofAqaba indicate that the southern segment of the Dead Sea Fault system is the mostseismogenicthrough the last two decades. North of the Dead Sea depression the seismic activitytends to haveoccurred with NW trend to extend under the Levantine Sea. Although the northernsegment ofthe Dead Sea Fault system is well defined from geological, geophysical and historicalearthquakeactivity recent seismic activity is practically absent especially north of Latitude 34°N.In the eastern Mediterranean the seismicity is much higher in the area of the Hellenicarcthan in the Cyprean arc. Moreover, the activity occurs in a wide belt suggesting that theplateboundary is a deformation zone instead of a single line.The seismic activity in the Gulf of Suez is scattered and does not have any distincttrend.However, three active zones are delineated. At the mouth of the gulf most of activityisconcentrated where the Sinai triple junction (Africa, Arabia, Sinai) is situated. The centralpartand the northern part of the gulf include the adjacent area as far as the river Nile. Actually,theactivity is markedly decreased from south to north.Although there is no seismological evidence that the Suez rift continues into theeasternMediterranean, the activity in the Gulf of Suez region cannot be ignored.The parameters of magnitude-frequency relation (a, b) indicate thatthelevel of earthquake activity in the Sinai subplate region is generally moderate. Moreover,theenergy release curve shows a regular trend and reflects occasional high activity. © 1999ElsevierScience Ltd. All rights reserved.     

基于目标风险的地震区划图

为保证国土范围内建筑倒塌风险的一致性,提出了基于目标风险的地震区划图。该图通过求取地震危险性曲线与结构易损性曲线的卷积的风险积分方法计算目标风险。本文介绍了采用风险积分法确定基于目标风险的地震动参数的基本原理,回顾了这项技术在国内外研究与应用的最新进展。此外,还讨论了基于目标风险的地震区划图未来的发展及可能面临的问题。     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Eastern Marmara Region

The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard in Eastern Marmara Region using an improved probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodology. Two significant improvements over the previous seismic hazard assessment practices are accomplished in this study: advanced seismic source characterization models in terms of source geometry and recurrence relationships are developed, and improved global ground motion models (NGA-W1 models) are employed to represent the ground motion variability. Planar fault segments are defined and a composite magnitude distribution model is used for all seismic sources in the region to properly represent the characteristic behavior of the North Anatolian Fault without the need for an additional background zone. Multi-segment ruptures are considered using the rupture model proposed by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (2003). Events in the earthquake catalogue are attributed to the fault zones and scenario weights are determined by releasing the accumulated seismic energy. The uniform hazard spectra at 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years hazard level for different soil conditions (soil and rock) are revealed for specific locations in the region (Adapazar?, Düzce, Gemlik, Izmit, Iznik and Sapanca). Hazard maps of the region for rock site conditions at the selected hazard levels are provided to allow the readers perform site-specific hazard assessment and develop site-specific design spectrum for local site conditions.     

VELOCITY SPECTRA AND THEIR USE IN STRATIGRAPHIC AND LITHOLOGIC DIFFERENTIATION*

Velocity Spectra which were originally developed for the optimum stacking of seismic data have been found to give considerable information concerning lithologic and stratigraphic changes in the geologic section. In the Gulf of Mexico shale sections and sand bodies have been recognized on the Velocity Spectra display, and in the Caribbean last year a first attempt was made to utilize Velocity Spectra information for the determination and mapping of lithology. Since that time, a new program has been developed which takes dip into account when computing the interval velocity. This program has been applied to a seismic section in the North Sea which has resulted in a geologic model derived from interval velocities which were found to be quite consistent. Such a model can be of great value in geological interpretation.     

A method to estimate intensity occurrence probabilities in low seismic activity regions

The estimation of site intensity occurrence probabilities in low seismic activity regions has been studied from different points of view. However, no method has been definitively established because several problems arise when macroseismic historical data are incomplete and the active zones are not well determined. The purpose of this paper is to present a method that estimates site occurrence probabilities and at the same time measures the uncertainties inherent in these probabilities in low activity regions. The region to be studied is divided into very broad seismic zones. An exponential intensity probability law is adjusted for each zone and the degree of uncertainty in the assumed incompleteness of the catalogue is evaluated for each intensity. These probabilities are used to establish what may be termed ‘prior site occurrence models’. A Bayesian method is used to improve ‘prior models’ and to obtain the ‘posterior site occurrence models’. Epicentre locations are used to recover spatial information lost in the prior broad zoning. This Bayesian correction permits the use of specific attenuation for different events and may take into account, by means of conservative criteria, epicentre location errors. Following Bayesian methods, probabilities are assumed to be random variables and their distribution may be used to estimate the degree of uncertainty arising from (a) the statistical variance of estimators, (b) catalogue incompleteness and (c) mismatch of data to prior assumptions such as Poisson distribution for events and exponential distribution for intensities. The results are maps of probability and uncertainty for each intensity. These maps exhibit better spatial definition than those obtained by means of simple, broad zones. Some results for Catalonia (NE of Iberian Peninsula) are shown.     

Variability of Convective Activity over the North Indian Ocean and its Associations with Monsoon Rainfall over India

The present study is an attempt to examine the variability of convective activity over the north Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) on interannual and longer time scale and its association with the rainfall activity over the four different homogeneous regions of India (viz., northeast India, northwest India, central India and south peninsular India) during the monsoon season from June to September (JJAS) for the 26 year period (1979 to 2004). The monthly mean Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) data obtained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) polar orbiting spacecraft are used in this study and the 26-year period has been divided into two periods of 13 years each with period-i from 1979 to 1991 and period -ii from 1992 to 2004. It is ascertained that the convective activity increases over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal in the recent period (period -ii; 1992 to 2004) compared to that of the former period (period -i; 1979 to 1991) during JJAS and is associated with a significantly increasing trend (at 95% level) of convective activity over the north Bay of Bengal (NBAY). On a monthly scale, July and August also show increase in convective activity over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal during the recent period and this is associated with slight changes in the monsoon activity cycle over India. The increase in convective activity particularly over the Arabian Sea during the recent period of June is basically associated with about three days early onset of the monsoon over Delhi and relatively faster progress of the monsoon northward from the southern tip of India. Over the homogeneous regions of India the correlation coefficient (CC) of OLR anomalies over the south Arabian Sea (SARA) is highly significant with the rainfall over central India, south peninsular India and northwest India, and for the north Arabian Sea (NARA), it is significant with northwest India rainfall and south peninsular rainfall. Similarly, the OLR anomalies over the south Bay of Bengal (SBAY) have significant CC with northwest India and south peninsular rainfall, whereas the most active convective region of the NBAY is not significantly correlated with rainfall over India. It is also found that the region over northeastern parts of India and its surroundings has a negative correlation with the OLR anomalies over the NARA and is associated with an anomalous sinking (rising) motion over the northeastern parts of India during the years of increase (decrease) of convective activity over the NARA.