On Sea Surface Roughness Parameterization and Its Effect on Tropical Cyclone Structure and Intensity

A new parameterization scheme of sea surface momentum roughness length for all wind regimes, including high winds, under tropical cyclone (TC) conditions is constructed based on measurements from Global Positioning System (GPS) dropsonde. It reproduces the observed regime transition, namely, an increase of the drag coefficient with an increase in wind speed up to 40 m s-1 , followed by a decrease with a further increase in wind speed. The effect of this parameterization on the structure and intensity of TCs...     

Uncertainty in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Predictions due to Uncertainty in Initial Conditions

Focusing on the role of initial condition uncertainty, we use WRF initial perturbation ensemble forecasts to investigate the uncertainty in intensity forecasts of Tropical Cyclone(TC) Rammasun(1409), which is the strongest TC to have made landfall in China during the past 50 years. Forecast results indicate that initial condition uncertainty leads to TC forecast uncertainty, particularly for TC intensity. This uncertainty increases with forecast time, with a more rapid and significant increase a...     

地形和边界层摩擦对登陆热带气旋路径和强度影响的研究

采用准地转的正压模式, 研究了无非绝热加热时地形和边界层摩擦对登陆热带气旋路径和强度的影响.结果表明: 地形作用对登陆热带气旋西北移动路径的影响比较明显, 而对登陆热带气旋强度的影响不明显; 边界层摩擦可以通过改变热带气旋X方向上和Y方向上的移动速度以及改变热带气旋水平环流结构对登陆热带气旋西北移动路径产生一定的影响, 边界层摩擦对登陆热带气旋强度的影响非常明显, 其中摩擦是造成登陆热带气旋强度迅速减弱的一个重要因素.     

热带气旋强度与结构研究新进展

主要回顾热带气旋(TC)强度与结构变化的研究发展近况。以往热带气旋的理论研究认为在给定的大气和海洋热状况下,存在着一个TC所能达到的最大可能强度(MPI)。但实际上,海洋生成的热带气旋达到的最大强度普遍要比由MPI理论计算得到最大强度要低。近几年的研究表明,存在着内部和外部的不利因子通过对TC结构的改变来阻碍其加强,从而限制TC的强度。以往认为在诸多因子中,垂直风切变产生的内核区非对称结构与眼墙区下方海水上涌造成的海面冷却是制约TC达到MPI的主要因子。最新的研究进一步指出,产生TC非对称性的中尺度过程对其强度与结构的变化至关重要。中尺度过程包含有对流耦合的涡旋Rossby波、内外圈螺旋雨带、嵌于TC环流内的中尺度涡旋。外部的环境气流也是通过这些眼墙的中尺度过程影响到TC的强度与结构变化。     

Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure to Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization

The advanced weather research and forecasting model is used to investigate the influence of planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes on intensity and structure of the storm Phailin (2013). Five simulations are conducted with five PBL schemes; Yonsei University (YSU), Mellor?Yamada?Nakanishi?Niino order2.5 (MYNN2), Assymetric Convective Model2 (ACM2), Medium Range Forecast (MRF), and Bougeault and Lacarrere (BouLac). The simulation duration includes the pre???intensification and rapid intensification phase of Phailin before landfall. Results indicate that during the pre???intensification phase, storm’s track and intensity are not much sensitivity to PBL but structural changes are noted. A significant sensitivity of track and intensity to PBL parameterizations are found during rapid intensification phase. BouLac and MRF produced two extremes with 39 hPa intense and 16 km compact storm for BouLac than MRF. Further analysis reveals an outward movement of air parcel just above the boundary layer which causes spin-down for YSU and MYNN2. BouLac is associated with stronger eddy diffusivity and moisture fluxes within the boundary layer and stronger cyclonic vorticity just above the boundary layer than other experiments. Stronger cyclonic vorticity above the boundary layer in BouLac favors intense updraft, facilitating more moisture transport from the boundary layer to upper layers aiding stronger secondary circulation and robustly intensifying the storm. A relatively deeper and drier inflow layer associated with weaker cyclonic vorticity just above the boundary layer reduces the moisture transport and weaken the secondary circulation for MRF than others.     

Numerical Study of Boundary Layer Structure and Rainfall after Landfall of Typhoon Fitow(2013): Sensitivity to Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization

The boundary layer structure and related heavy rainfall of Typhoon Fitow(2013), which made landfall in Zhejiang Province, China, are studied using the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model, with a focus on the sensitivity of the simulation to the planetary boundary layer parameterization. Two groups of experiments—one with the same surface layer scheme and including the Yonsei University(YSU), Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino Level 2.5,and Bougeault and Lacarrere schemes; and the other with different surface layer schemes and including the Mellor–Yamada–Janjic′ and Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination schemes—are investigated. For the convenience of comparative analysis, the simulation with the YSU scheme is chosen as the control run because this scheme successfully reproduces the track, intensity and rainfall as a whole. The maximum deviations in the peak tangential and peak radial winds may account for 11% and 33%of those produced in the control run, respectively. Further diagnosis indicates that the vertical diffusivity is much larger in the first group, resulting in weaker vertical shear of the tangential and radial winds in the boundary layer and a deeper inflow layer therein. The precipitation discrepancies are related to the simulated track deflection and the differences in the simulated low-level convergent flow among all tests. Furthermore, the first group more efficiently transfers moisture and energy and produces a stronger ascending motion than the second, contributing to a deeper moist layer, stronger convection and greater precipitation.     

Effect of Horizontal Nonuniformity of Diabatic Heating on Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure

1. IntroductionMuch attention has been paid to the role playedby diabatic heating in the genesis and intensificationof tropical cyclone (TC). Based on a two-dimensionalprimitive equation model, Li (1984) proposed that theevolution of TC should be different if the maximumheating appears at different height. Yang et al. (1995)found that abrupt intensification of TC at the mid-latitudes is closely related to the vertical structure ofconvective heating. May and Holland (1998) suggestedthat the…     

Evaluation of the Ocean Feedback on Height Characteristics of the Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer

In this study, the interaction between the tropical cyclone（TC） and the underlying ocean is reproduced by using a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. Based on the simulation results, characteristics of the TC boundary layer depth are investigated in terms of three commonly used definitions, i.e., the height of the mixed layer depth（HVTH）, the height of the maximum tangential winds（HTAN）, and the inflow layer depth（HRAD）. The symmetric height of the boundary layer is shown to be cut down by the ocean response, with the decrease of HVTH slightly smaller than that of HTAN and HRAD. The ocean feedback also leads to evident changes in asymmetric features of the boundary layer depth. The HVTH in the right rear of the TC is significantly diminished due to presence of the cold wake, while the changes of HVTH in other regions are rather small. The decreased surface virtual potential temperature by the cold wake is identified to be dominant in the asymmetric changes in HVTH. The impacts of ocean response on the asymmetric distributions of HTAN are nonetheless not distinct, which is attributed to the highly axisymmetric property of tangential winds. The HRAD possesses remarkable asymmetric features and the inflow layer does not exist in all regions, an indication of the inadequacy of the definition based on symmetric inflow layer depth. Under influences of the cold wake, the peak inflow area rotates counterclockwise distinctly. As a consequence, the HRAD becomes deeper in the east while shallower in the west of the TC.     

Dynamic Impact of the Vertical Shear of Gradient Wind on the Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer Wind Field

This work studies the impact of the vertical shear of gradient wind （VSGW） in the free atmosphere on the tropical cyclone boundary layer （TCBL）. A new TCBL model is established, which relies on five- force balance including the pressure gradient force, Coriolis force, centrifugal force, turbulent friction, and inertial deviation force. This model is then employed to idealize tropical cyclones （TCs） produced by DeMaria＇s model, under different VSGW conditions （non-VSGW, positive VSGW, negative VSGW, and VSGW increase/decrease along the radial direction）. The results show that the free-atmosphere VSGW is particularly important to the intensity of TC. For negative VSGW, the total horizontal velocity in the TCBL is somewhat suppressed. However, with the maximum radial inflow displaced upward and outward, the radial velocity notably intensifies. Consequently, the convergence is enhanced throughout the TCBL, giving rise to a stronger vertical pumping at the TCBL top. In contrast, for positive VSGW, the radial inflow is significantly suppressed, even with divergent outflow in the middle-upper TCBL. For varying VSGW along the radial direction, the results indicate that the sign and value of VSGW is more important than its radial distribution, and the negative VSGW induces stronger convergence and Ekman pumping in the TCBL. which favors the formation and intensification of TC.     

用数字云图确定热带气旋强度的原理和方法

本文采用数字云图资料，分析热带气旋强度与热带气旋中云系结构的关系，提出了云系结构紧密度因子的概念并用云带旋转的圈数表示热带气旋强度的方法。本文对原有关于热带气旋中云系结构的某些因子的取值作了适当调整， 改进了用增强红外云图确定热带气旋强度的方法。 经过对2446组样本的拟合，热带气旋强度最大风速估计值的平均绝对误差为2.48 m/s。本方法可以实现人机交互，能更客观地作出定量估计。对1993年12个热带气旋检验，最大风速平均绝对误差为2.31 m/s。     

Impact of Different Cloud Microphysics Parameterization Schemes on Typhoon Intensity and Structure

The impact of different cloud microphysics parameterization schemes on the intensity and structure of the Super-strong Typhoon Rammasun (1409) in 2014 is investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model version 3.4 with eight cloud microphysics parameterization schemes. Results indicate that the uncertainty of cloud microphysics schemes results in typhoon forecast uncertainties, which increase with forecast time. Typhoon forecast uncertainty primarily affects intensity predictions, with significant differences in predicted typhoon intensity using the various cloud microphysics schemes. Typhoon forecast uncertainty also affects the predicted typhoon structure. Greater typhoon intensity is accompanied by smaller vortex width, tighter vortex structure, stronger wind in the middle and lower troposphere, greater height of the strong wind region, smaller thickness of the eyewall and the outward extension of the eyewall, and a warmer warm core at upper levels of the eye. The differences among the various cloud microphysics schemes lead to the different amounts and distributions of water vapor and hydrometeors in clouds. Different hydrometeors have different vertical distributions. In the radial direction, the maxima for the various hydrometeors forecast by a single cloud microphysics scheme are collocated with each other and with the center of maximum precipitation. When the hydrometeor concentration is high and hydrometeors exist at lower altitudes, more precipitation often occurs. Both the vertical and horizontal winds are the strongest at the location of maximum precipitation. Results also indicate that typhoon intensities forecast by cloud microphysics schemes containing graupel processes are noticeably greater than those forecast by schemes without graupel processes. Among the eight cloud microphysics schemes investigated, typhoon intensity forecasts using the WRF Single-Moment 6-class and Thompson schemes are the most accurate.     

Comparison of Three Tropical Cyclone Intensity Datasets

Analyzed in this paper are the 16-yr (1988-2003) tropical cyclone (TC) intensity data from three major forecast centers of the western North Pacific, i.e., China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo (RSMC Tokyo), and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the United States. Results show that there are significant discrepancies (at 1% significance level) in the intensity of TCs among the three centers, with a maximum difference for the same TC over 30 m s-1. The flight reconnaissance over TC can minish the discrepancy to some extent. A climatic and persistent prediction model is set up to study the impact of initial data from different forecast centers on the prediction of TC intensity. It is obtained that the root mean square error (RMSE) of a 4-yr independent test is the largest using data from JTWC, while the smallest using data from RSMC Tokyo. Average absolute deviation in 24-h intensity prediction is 2.5 m s-1 between CMA and RSMC Tokyo data, and 4.0 m s-1 between CMA and JTWC data, with a maximum deviation reaching 21 m s-1. Such a problem in the initial value increases the difficulty in intensity prediction of TCs over the western North Pacific.     

Effect of the Vertical Diffusion of Moisture in the Planetary Boundary Layer on an Idealized Tropical Cyclone

Previous numerical studies have focused on the combined effect of momentum and scalar eddy diffusivity on the intensity and structure of tropical cyclones. The separate impact of eddy diffusivity estimated by planetary boundary layer(PBL) parameterization on the tropical cyclones has not yet been systematically examined. We have examined the impacts of eddy diffusion of moisture on idealized tropical cyclones using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model with the Yonsei University PBL scheme. Our results show nonlinear effects of moisture eddy diffusivity on the simulation of idealized tropical cyclones. Increasing the eddy diffusion of moisture increases the moisture content of the PBL, with three different effects on tropical cyclones:(1) an decrease in the depth of the PBL;(2) an increase in convection in the inner rain band and eyewall; and(3) drying of the lowest region of the PBL and then increasing the surface latent heat flux. These three processes have different effects on the intensity and structure of the tropical cyclone through various physical mechanisms. The increased surface latent heat flux is mainly responsible for the decrease in pressure. Results show that moisture eddy diffusivity has clear effects on the pressure in tropical cyclones, but contributes little to the intensity of wind. This largely influences the wind–pressure relationship, which is crucial in tropical cyclones simulation. These results improve our understanding of moisture eddy diffusivity in the PBL and its influence on tropical cyclones, and provides guidance for interpreting the variation of moisture in the PBL for tropical cyclone simulations.     

边界层方案对华北低层O3垂直分布模拟的影响

利用WRF-Chem模式,采用3种边界层参数化方案 (YSU, MYJ和ACM2),针对1个晴空、静稳日 (2013年8月26日20:00—27日20:00(北京时)) 进行模拟,着重分析不同边界层参数化方案对夜间残留层形成及日出前后O₃浓度垂直分布形式的模拟效果,并与固城站地面及垂直同步观测资料进行对比。结果表明:3种边界层参数化方案均能够模拟出温度及风速的区域分布形式以及风温垂直结构的变化特征;相比之下,MYJ方案模拟的夜间边界层高度较YSU方案和ACM2方案明显偏高,该对比结果可能是导致近地面污染物浓度模拟差异的重要原因;在夜间稳定层结至日出后稳定状态打破的边界层结构演变过程中,采用YSU方案和ACM2方案模拟的温度和风速垂直扩线形式与观测结果更为接近;同样采用非局地闭合的YSU方案和同时考虑局地和非局地闭合的ACM2方案,对于边界层高度内O₃浓度垂直分布形式的模拟效果具有明显优势。     

A Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction Scheme

A western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) intensity prediction scheme (WIPS) is developed based on TC samples from 1996 to 2002 using the stepwise regression technique, with the western North Pacific divided into three sub-regions: the region near the coast of East China (ECR), the South China Sea region (SCR), and the far oceanic region (FOR). Only the TCs with maximum sustained surface wind speed greater than 17.2 m s-1 are used in the scheme. Potential predictors include the climatology and persistence factors, synoptic environmental conditions, potential intensity of a TC and proximity of a TC to land. Variances explained by the selected predictors suggest that the potential intensity of a TC and the proximity of a TC to land are significant in almost all the forecast equations. Other important predictors include vertical wind shear in ECR, 500-hPa geopotential height anomaly at the TC center, zonal component of TC translation speed in SCR, intensity change of TC 12 or 24 h prior to initial time, and the longitude of TC center in FOR. Independent tests are carried out for TCs in 4 yr (2004-2007), with mean absolute errors of the maximum surface wind being 3.0, 5.0, 6.5, 7.3, 7.6, and 7.9 m s-1 for 12- to 72-h predictions at 12-h intervals, respectively. Positive skills are obtained at all leading time levels as compared to the climatology and persistence prediction scheme, and the large skill scores (near or over 20%) after 36 h imply that WIPS performs especially better at longer leading times. Furthermore, it is found that the amendment in TC track prediction and real-time model analysis can significantly improve the performance of WIPS in the SCR and ECR. Future improvements will focus on applying the scheme for weakening TCs and those near the coastal regions.     

西北太平洋热带气旋强度统计释用预报方法研究

为了提高西北太平洋地区热带气旋（TC）强度预报准确率,在气候持续预报方法基础上,考虑气候持续性因子、天气因子、卫星资料因子,以TC强度变化为预报对象,运用逐步回归统计方法,建立西北太平洋地区24、48、72小时TC强度预报方程。通过不同的分海区试验（远海区域、华东近海、华南近海）,证明回归结果较好。逐一分析选入因子发现：气候持续性因子在方程中相当重要;同时对远海区域和华东近海而言,海温影响也不容忽视,对华南近海而言,反映动力强迫作用的因素也较为重要。卫星资料的加入,对回归结果略有改进。用“刀切法”作独立样本检验,与气候持续法比较,预报误差明显减小。     

近海热带气旋强度突变的垂直结构特征分析

应用1949～2003年共55年的《台风年鉴》和《热带气旋年鉴》资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料, 给出热带气旋强度突变标准, 对中国近海突然增强和突然减弱的两组热带气旋进行合成分析和对比分析。结果表明, 近海热带气旋强度变化与南亚高压、 副热带高压的强度变化呈反相变化关系; 环境风垂直切变小于5 m/s是南海近海热带气旋突然增强的必要条件, 热带气旋强度突变对环境风垂直切变变化的响应时间为18～36 h; 热带气旋中心附近存在数值在 -6～6 m/s之间纬向分布的环境风垂直切变密集带, 在热带气旋突然增强时刻, 中心附近环境风垂直切变经向梯度最大; 风垂直切变在热带气旋突然增强过程中逐渐减弱, 而在热带气旋突然减弱过程中逐渐增强; 热带气旋中心附近是高低层相对涡度垂直切变的强负值区, 在热带气旋突然增强过程中相对涡度垂直切变逐渐减小, 在突然增强时刻最小。     

Dvorak技术估测热带气旋强度研究进展

在常规观测资料稀少的热带洋面上,卫星云图是监测热带气旋的主要工具。Dvorak技术通过一系列经验规则,将热带气旋在卫星云图中表现出来的云系结构特征及特定的参数同其发展强度联系起来。介绍了利用Dvorak技术估测热带气旋强度的研究背景和原理方法,总结了国内外在该领域的研究进展及其存在的优势和不足,指出Dvorak技术是目前业务化估测热带气旋强度的主要工具,同时展望了该技术未来的发展方向。     

Importance of Air-Sea Coupling in Simulating Tropical Cyclone Intensity at Landfall

An atmosphere-only model system for making seasonal prediction and projecting future intensities of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) along the South China coast is upgraded by including ocean and wave models. A total of 642 TCs have been re-simulated using the new system to produce a climatology of TC intensity in the South China Sea. Detailed comparisons of the simulations from the atmosphere-only and the fully coupled systems reveal that the inclusion of the additional ocean and wave models enable differential sea surface temperature responses to various TC characteristics such as translational speed and size. In particular, interaction with the ocean does not necessarily imply a weakening of the TC, with the coastal bathymetry possibly playing a role in causing a near-shore intensification of the TC. These results suggest that to simulate the evolution of TC structure more accurately, it is essential to use an air-sea coupled model instead of an atmosphere-only model.     

用数字云图确定热带气旋强度的人－机对话系统

使用２４４６张卫星展宽云图资料样本，根据云系结构（眼，中心密蔽云区、螺旋云带，结构紧密度）和热带气旋强度的密切相关，求出回归方程、作为估计热带气旋强度的基本公式，并在计算机上实现，建立了确定热带气旋强度的人－机对话系统。经过业务试运行。获得了满意的结果。