夏季热带大气准双周振荡对西北太平洋台风生成的影响

利用美国海洋大气局（National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,NOAA）逐日对外长波辐射（Outgoing Longwave Radiation,OLR)资料、欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA-Interim再分析资料和美国联合台风预警中心（Joint Typhoon Warning Center,JTWC）台风路径最佳资料,考察了热带大气夏季准双周振荡（Quasi-biweekly Oscillation,QBWO）对西北太平洋台风生成的影响,揭示了QBWO对西北太平洋台风生成位置、频数和发生概率的显著影响。结果表明:（1）伴随QBWO对流活跃中心的西北方向的传播,西北太平洋台风生成位置也呈现相应移动;（2）QBWO对流活跃位相期间,台风频数偏多,发生概率偏高,而在QBWO对流抑制位相,台风频数偏少,发生概率偏低;（3）台风生成潜在指数（Genesis Potential Index, GPI）收支分析指出了对流层低层绝对涡度和中层相对湿度是调制整个海域台风生成的两个重要的大尺度环境因子;（4）GPI的收支分析还表明了大尺度环境因子对台风生成的影响对QBWO的位相与区域具有显著的依赖性。在QBWO对流活跃位相期间,南海中北部区域低层涡度对GPI正异常贡献最为显著;在菲律宾以东海域,对流层中层相对湿度对GPI正异常贡献最为显著;在关岛附近海域,主要的贡献来自于低层绝对涡度与非线性项,且它们对GPI负异常的贡献相当。在QBWO对流抑制位相,南海中北部区域GPI的负异常贡献主要来自于低层绝对涡度;在菲律宾以东海域GPI负异常贡献主要来自中层相对湿度;关岛附近海域的GPI正异常的主要贡献来自于垂直风切变和非线性项。      

Circulation Features Associated with the Record-breaking Typhoon Silence in August 2014

Climatologically, August is the month with the most tropical cyclone(TC) formation over the western North Pacific(WNP) during the typhoon season. In this study, the reason for abnormal TC activity during August is discussed—especially August 2014, when no TCs formed. The large-scale background of August 2014 is presented, with low-level large-scale easterly anomalies and anticyclonic anomalies dominating over the main TC genesis region, a weak monsoon trough system,and a strong WNP subtropical high(WPSH), leading to significantly reduced low-level convergence, upper-level divergence,and mid-level upward motion. These unfavorable large-scale conditions suppressed convection and cyclogenesis. In August2014, equatorial waves were inactive within the negative phase of the Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO), with fewer tropical disturbances. Although the low-level vorticity and convection of those disturbances were partly promoted by the convective envelopes of equatorial waves, the integral evolution of disturbances, as well as the equatorial waves, were suppressed when propagating into the negative MJO phase. Moreover, the upper-level potential vorticity(PV) streamers associated with anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking events imported extratropical cold and dry air into the tropics. The peripheral tropospheric dryness and enhanced vertical wind shear by PV streamer intrusion combined with the negative MJO phase were responsible for the absence of TC formation over the WNP in August 2014.     

Springtime Convective Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation and Interannual Variation of Its Intensity over the South China Sea and Western North Pacific

This study investigates characteristics of the convective quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO) over the South China Sea(SCS) and western North Pacific(WNP) in spring, and the interannual variation of its intensity. Convective QBWO over the WNP and SCS shows both similarities and differences. Convective QBWO over the WNP originates mainly from southeast of the Philippine Sea and propagates northwestward. In contrast, convective QBWO over the SCS can be traced mainly to east of the Philippines and features a westward propagation. Such a westward or northwestward propagation is probably related to n = 1 equatorial Rossby waves. During the evolution of convective QBWO over the WNP and SCS, the vertical motion and specific humidity exhibit a barotropic structure and the vertical relative vorticity shows a baroclinic structure in the troposphere. The dominant mode of interannual variation of convective QBWO intensity over the SCS–WNP region in spring is homogeneous. Its positive phase indicates enhanced convective QBWO intensity accompanied by local enhanced QBWO intensity of vertical motion throughout the troposphere as well as local enhanced(weakened) QBWO intensity of kinetic energy, vertical relative vorticity,and wind in the lower(upper) troposphere. The positive phase usually results from local increases of the background moisture and anomalous vertical shear of easterlies. The latter contributes to the relationship between the dominant mode and QBWO intensities of kinetic energy, vertical relative vorticity, and wind. Finally, a connection between the dominant mode and the sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean is demonstrated.     

Modulation of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis by Intraseasonal Oscillation of the ITCZ: A Statistical Analysis

The present study investigates modulation of western North Pacific(WNP) tropical cyclone(TC) genesis in relation to different phases of the intraseasonal oscillation(ISO) of ITCZ convection during May to October in the period 1979-2008.The phases of the ITCZ ISO were determined based on 30-80-day filtered OLR anomalies averaged over the region(5-20 N,120-150 E).The number of TCs during the active phases was nearly three times more than during the inactive phases.The active(inactive) phases of ISO were characterized by low-level cyclonic(anticyclonic) circulation anomalies,higher(lower) midlevel relative humidity anomalies,and larger(smaller) vertical gradient anomalies of relative vorticity associated with enhanced(weakened) ITCZ convection anomalies.During the active phases,TCs tended to form in the center of the ITCZ region.Barotropic conversion from the low-level mean flow is suggested to be the major energy source for TC formation.The energy conversion mainly depended on the zonal and meridional gradients of the zonal flow during the active phases.However,barotropic conversion weakened greatly during the inactive phases.The relationship between the meridional gradient of absolute vorticity and low-level zonal flow indicates that the sign of the absolute vorticity gradient tends to be reversed during the two phases,whereas the same sign between zonal flow and the absolute vorticity gradient is more easily satisfied in the active phases.Thus,the barotropic instability of low-level zonal flow might be an important mechanism for TC formation over the WNP during the active phases of ISO.     

Modulation of Tropical Cyclone Activity Over the Northwestern Pacific Through the Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation

The quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) is the second most dominant intraseasonal mode for circulation over the Northwestern Pacific (WNP) during boreal summer. In this study, we investigated how the QBWO modulates tropical cyclone (TC) activities over the WNP from dynamic and thermodynamic perspectives. The propagation of the QBWO can be divided into four phases through empirical orthogonal function analysis of the vorticity at 850 hPa, which was proven to be effective in extracting the QBWO signal. TC generation and landings are significantly enhanced during the active period (phases 1 and 2) relative to the inactive period (phases 3 and 4). Composite analyses show the QBWO could significantly modulate TC activity as it propagates northwestward by changing the atmospheric circulation at both high and low levels. Cumulus convection provides an important link between TCs and the QBWO. The major component of the atmosphere heat source is found to be the latent heat release of convection. The condensation latent heat centers, vertical circulation, and water vapor flux divergence cooperate well during different phases of the QBWO. The vertical profile of the condensation latent heat indicates upper-level heating (cooling) during the active (inactive) phases of the QBWO. Thus, the northwestward propagation of the QBWO can modulate TC activity by affecting the configuration of atmospheric heating over the WNP.     

BCC S2S模式对亚洲夏季风准双周振荡预报评估

利用1994-2013年ERA-Interim及NCEP/NCAR再分析数据,对国家气候中心（BCC）次季节到季节尺度模式（S2S）1994-2013年的回报试验数据进行亚洲季风区准双周振荡（QBWO）预报能力评估,并诊断模式预报误差来源。结果表明:BCC S2S模式对QBWO的预报能力随着预报提前时间的增长而降低,9 d后预报技巧明显减弱,其周期、传播特征和强度出现误差;在提前9 d预报中,印度洋地区QBWO对流-环流系统结构松散,信号偏弱,对流向东传播,这与印度洋平均态的预报误差有关,夏季对流平均态低层水汽场在西太平洋和阿拉伯海较强,而东印度洋、孟加拉湾一带偏弱;西北太平洋地区QBWO具有向西北传播的特征,但强度偏弱,可能原因是预报低估了QBWO对流西北侧低层涡度的超前信号,经涡度方程诊断发现,地转涡度平流正贡献微弱,相对涡度平流在对流西北侧引发负涡度,从而减弱了对流西北侧由低层正涡度引发的有利条件。     

Interannual Variation of Multiple Tropical Cyclone Events in the Western North Pacific

The interannual variability of occurrence of multiple tropical cyclone(MTC) events during June-October in the western North Pacific(WNP) was examined for the period 1979-2006.The number of the MTC events ranged from 2 to 9 per year,exhibiting a remarkable year-to-year variation.Seven active and seven inactive MTC years were identified.Compared to the inactive years,tropical cyclone genesis locations extended farther to the east and in the meridional direction during the active MTC years.A composite analysis shows that inactive MTC years were often associated with the El Nin o decaying phase,as warm SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern-central Pacific in the preceding winter transitioned into cold sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies in the concurrent summer.Associated with the SST evolution were suppressed low-level cyclonic vorticity and weakened convection in the WNP monsoon region.In addition to the mean flow difference,significant differences between active and inactive MTC years were also found in the strength of the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation(ISO).Compared with inactive MTC years,ISO activity was much stronger along the equator and in the WNP region during active MTC years.Both westward-and northward-propagating ISO spectrums strengthened during active MTC years compared to inactive years.The combined mean state and ISO activity changes may set up a favorable environment for the generation of MTC events.     

2002年夏季中高纬大气准双周振荡对华南降水的影响

利用JRA55大气再分析资料和TRMM卫星降水资料,分析了2002年夏季（5~8月）华南地区降水的低频振荡特征,重点揭示了对其影响显著的中高纬大气季节内振荡的环流结构及演变。小波和功率谱分析表明,2002年夏季华南降水表现为主周期为10~30 d的准双周低频振荡。典型低频降水事件及合成分析指出,准双周降水的强（弱）变化除了受低空西北太平洋副热带高压西伸进入（东移退出）南海的影响以外,还显著地依赖于中高纬地区高空大气环流的季节内振荡。在对流层高层,中高纬度地区存在一支自大西洋经欧亚大陆的气旋—反气旋相间排列的低频波列。该波列在欧亚大陆地区向东南传播,当异常反气旋和气旋分别位于青藏高原和华北上空时,这种偶极型环流之间的高空辐散场有利于华南地区上升运动的发展,因而华南降水偏强;反之,华南降水偏弱。研究还表明,低频波列南移造成了对流层异常温度平流和副热带高层异常绝对涡度的变化,使得华南地区上升与下沉运动交替出现以及相应的经向环流圈反转,从而导致华南准双周振荡干湿位相的转换。局地异常感热加热对干湿位相转换也起一定作用。时滞相关分析发现,当青藏高原地区500 hPa位势高度异常场超前于华南异常降水4 d（即位相差为1/4周期）时,二者出现显著正相关,表明青藏高原地区500 hPa位势高度异常对预测华南地区季节内降水变化有潜在的应用价值。     

The seasonally-varying influence of ENSO on rainfall and tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines

An observational study covering the period 1950–2002 examines a seasonal reversal in the ENSO rainfall signal in the north-central Philippines. In boreal Summer of El Niño (La Niña) events, above (below) average rainfall typically occurs in this area. Rainfall anomalies of opposite sign develop across the country in the subsequent fall. This study investigates the seasonal evolution of the anomalous atmospheric circulation over the western North Pacific (WNP) during both El Niño and La Niña and places these features in the context of the large-scale evolution of ENSO events, including an analysis of changes in tropical cyclone activity affecting the Philippines. The results show that during boreal summer of El Niño (La Niña) events, a relatively narrow, zonally elongated band of enhanced (reduced) low-level westerlies develops across the WNP which serves to increase (decrease) the summer monsoon flow and moisture flux over the north-central Philippines and is associated with an increase (decrease) in the strength of the WNP monsoon trough via the anomalous relative vorticity. Tropical cyclone activity is shown to be enhanced (reduced) in the study region during boreal summer of El Niño (La Niña) events, which is related to the increase (decrease) of mid-level atmospheric moisture, as diagnosed using a genesis potential index. The subsequent evolution shows development of an anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) over the WNP in El Niño (La Niña) and the well-known tendency for below (above) average rainfall in the fall. Prolonged ENSO events also exhibit seasonal rainfall sign reversals in the Philippines with a similar evolution in atmospheric circulation.     

多要素表征的东亚季风区准双周振荡特征

为评估不同要素对东亚季风区准双周振荡的表征能力,对大气向外长波辐射（OLR）、500 hPa位势涡度、850 hPa相对涡度、850 hPa风场和750 hPa比湿等要素的准双周振荡特征进行对比,发现各要素均能很好反映东亚季风区明显的准双周振荡时空特征。OLR及500 hPa位势涡度、850 hPa相对涡度、850 hPa纬向风表征的准双周振荡呈明显的西北向传播特征,500 hPa位势涡度、850 hPa相对涡度、850 hPa纬向风北传更强,北传速度更快。850 hPa经向风的准双周振荡呈明显西移特征,北传弱,北传速度最慢。而750 hPa比湿准双周振荡呈东南向传播。不同要素准双周振荡的强度略有差异,其中750 hPa比湿与其他要素的差异大。总体而言,750 hPa比湿不能较好地表现出东亚季风区准双周振荡活动特征,而其余要素能很好地表征东亚季风区大气准双周振荡,其中500 hPa位势涡度和850 hPa相对涡度准双周振荡特征一致性高。     

南海-西北太平洋地区大气准双周振荡对TC生成的调节作用

通过对南海-西北太平洋地区大气10～20 d准双周振荡(QBWO)不同位相的划分(A～D),研究了QBWO对南海-西北太平洋海域热带气旋(TC)生成的调节作用。将TC分为强热带风暴及以下级别(TS)和台风及以上级别(TY),并将QBWO分为干湿位相,发现南海海域生成的TS(TY)在干湿位相的比与西北太平洋海域生成的TS(TY)在干湿位相的比相等,这表明QBWO对TS(TY)生成的调节作用在南海和西太平洋地区可能相同。从A位相到C位相,南海和西北太平洋地区TC的生成频数均逐渐增多,D位相时期,TC生成最少,多数TC发生在QBWO的对流活动湿位相,少数TC发生在干位相。南海-西北太平洋海域TC的生成受到QBWO的明显调制。从位相A到位相C,低频对流和低频风场逐渐向西北方向移动,低频对流强度持续加强,低频风场逐渐由异常西风-东风-西风转为异常东风-西风-东风配置,西北太平洋地区季风槽加强,使得TC生成频数逐渐增多。此外,在QBWO活跃位相,非绝热加热增强和纬向风垂直切变减弱也有利于TC的生成。     

The Initial Mesoscale Vortexes Leading to the Formation of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

A statistical analysis of the initial vortexes leading to tropical cyclone(TC) formation in the western North Pacific(WNP) is conducted with the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data from 1999 to 2018. It is found that TCs in the WNP basically originate from three kinds of vortexes, i.e., a mid-level vortex(MV), a low-level vortex(LV), and a relatively deep vortex with notable vorticity in both the lower and middle troposphere(DV). Among them, LV and DV account for 47.9% and24.2% of tropical cyclogenesis e...     

2015年西北太平洋台风季提早展开:2015/2016超级厄尔尼诺的影响

2015年1-5月西北太平洋上异常出现了7个热带风暴（Tropical Storms,TS）,其中有5个发展成台风（Typhoons,TY）,分别为气候平均态（1979-2015年）的2.5和3.6倍,亦即2015年的台风季提前展开。利用ERA-Interim再分析资料、JTWC热带气旋最佳化路径数据等资料,通过计算台风生成指数（Genesis Potential Index,GPI）和比较天气尺度和季节内振荡分量,探讨2015年台风季提前的原因。结果表明：1）2015年初异常活跃的台风活动与2015/2016年超级El Niño事件于西北太平洋上引发的海气状态异常有关。2）通过对大尺度环境场和台风潜在生成指数（GPI）的诊断分析发现,动力因子（低层涡度、垂直速度）和热力因子（与海表面温度、大气温度有关的潜在强度、中低层大气相对湿度）均对2015年1-5月台风的发生有正贡献。其中,涡度项的贡献最大,相对湿度的贡献次之。3）3~10 d天气尺度扰动和10~90 d季节内振荡在2015年1-5月也异常活跃,有利于TS和TY的生成与发展。     

南海—西北太平洋地区低频振荡特征及其对TC群发过程的影响

根据中国气象局上海台风研究所整编的热带气旋最佳路径数据集(CMA-STI),以及定义的热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC)群发标准,分析了南海—西太平洋地区的低频振荡特征,及其对TC群发活动的影响,研究了TC群发与季风槽的关系。结果表明,孟加拉湾—西太平洋的近赤道地区有两支主要的对流区,分别位于南海—西太平洋地区和孟加拉湾东南部。10~20 d大气准双周振荡(Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation,QBWO)周期是南海—西太平洋地区对流活动的主要周期,大部分年份QBWO占原始序列的方差贡献达20%以上。QBWO的强度具有明显的年际变化,20世纪80年代以前强度变化较大,80年代之后变化较小。根据定义的TC群发标准,发现1990年6—9月西北太平洋地区共有4次TC群发过程,都发生在低频对流活动的湿位相。分析对流活动干位相—湿位相—干位相的演变,发现TC的群发期集中在湿位相,湿位相期间大气低层为低频气旋性环流,较强的正涡度有利于初始涡旋扰动的形成和发展,为TC群发提供了有利的环流背景场。根据定义的季风槽强度指数,发现季风槽强度与TC群发过程有很好的对应关系,由于季风槽的活跃使得对流活动处于湿位相期,同时季风槽区提供了有利的正涡度条件,促使TC群发活动产生。     

ENSO发展年与衰减年夏季环境要素对热带气旋生成频数变化的贡献

利用中国气象局上海台风研究所整编的热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC)最佳路径数据集和欧洲中期天气预报中心的ERA再分析资料,分析了El Ni?o-South Oscillation (ENSO)发展年与衰减年西北太平洋(Western North Pacific,WNP)夏季(6—8月)总TC生成频数(Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency,TCGF)及其区域性特征,通过潜在生成指数(Genesis Potential Index,GPI)定量诊断各环境要素对TCGF变化的贡献。结果表明,西北太平洋TCGF总数异常在ENSO各位相并不显著,但其东南象限和西部的TCGF异常存在明显差异。在ENSO各位相,GPI异常的空间分布与TCGF异常的空间型相似。同一区域,各环境要素对TCGF异常的贡献不同,反映了ENSO不同位相影响TC生成变化的机理存在差异。WNP东南部(SEWNP)是对ENSO较敏感的区域,El Ni?o发展年,中东太平洋异常增暖激发的Rossby波西传导致SEWNP受异常正涡度环流控制,涡度对TCGF增加的贡献最大;El Ni?o衰减年,西北太平洋出现低层异常反气旋,其东侧异常东北气流将湿度相对较低的水汽输送至SEWNP,相对湿度降低导致TCGF显著减少。La Ni?a发展年,绝对涡度减小和垂直风切变增加对TCGF减少都有影响。WNP西部仅在La Ni?a衰减年出现TCGF显著负异常,低层绝对涡度减小的贡献最大,因为季风槽减弱,抑制了南海附近的TC生成。      

REGIONAL DISCREPANCIES OF THE IMPACT OF TROPICAL INDIAN OCEAN WARMING ON NORTHWEST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCY IN THE YEARS OF DECAYING EL NIO

This study investigates the influences of tropical Indian Ocean(TIO) warming on tropical cyclone(TC)genesis in different regions of the western North Pacific(WNP) from July to October(JASO) during the decaying El Nio. The results show significant negative TC frequency anomalies localized in the southeastern WNP. Correlation analysis indicates that a warm sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) in the TIO strongly suppresses TC genesis south of 21°N and east of 140°E in JASO. Reduced TC genesis over the southeastern WNP results from a weak monsoon trough and divergence and subsidence anomalies associated with an equatorial baroclinic Kelvin wave. Moreover,suppressed convection in response to a cold local SSTA, induced by the increased northeasterly connected by the wind-evaporation-SST positive feedback mechanism, is found unfavorable for TC genesis. Positive TC genesis anomalies are observed over higher latitudinal regions(at around 21°N, 140°E) and the western WNP because of enhanced convection along the northern flank of the WNP anomalous anticyclone and low-level convergence,respectively. Although local modulation(e.g., local SST) could have greater dominance over TC activity at higher latitudes in certain anomalous years(e.g., 1988), a warm TIO SSTA can still suppress TC genesis in lower latitudinal regions of the WNP. A better understanding of the contributions of TIO warming could help improve seasonal TC predictions over different regions of the WNP in years of decaying El Nio.     

亚洲夏季风30～60天季节内振荡对中国东部地区持续性极端降水的影响

本文基于1979～2015年中国台站观测的格点化高分辨率降水和NCEP II大气再分析逐日资料,探讨了亚洲季风区夏季30～60天大气季节内振荡（ISO）与长江中下游地区持续性降水异常的关系,重点揭示了南亚和东亚子季风区ISO的相互作用及二者协同引起长江中下游持续性极端降水的物理机制。合成分析表明,南亚和东亚ISO是通过高层辐散环流发生相互作用。在ISO位相1～3（5～7）,异常活跃（抑制）对流从赤道印度洋北传至孟加拉湾—印度次大陆区域,其伴随的高层异常辐散（辐合）环流通过补偿效应,引起南海—热带西北太平洋的异常高层辐合（辐散）,加强了局地的异常下沉（上升）运动,有利于南海—西北太平洋的异常抑制（活跃）对流发展并维持。南海—西北太平洋的异常抑制（活跃）对流伴随着显著的斜压散度,并进一步激发出一个连接南海和长江中下游的经向垂直环流圈,引起长江中下游强烈的异常上升（下沉）运动和低层水汽辐合（辐散）,使得降水持续性偏多（少）,极端降水的发生概率持续地偏高（低）,有利于（不利于）形成持续性极端降水事件。研究还表明,亚洲季风区ISO的强度存在显著的年际变化,并对长江中下游持续性极端降水的发生频次和持续时间具有调制作用。在ISO偏强（弱）年,长江中下游持续性极端降水的发生频次较高（低）,且持续时间较长（短）。     

Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index over the Western North Pacific Simulated by LASG/IAP AGCM

Tropical cyclone genesis potential index(GPI) is a useful metric for gauging the performance of global climate models in the simulation of tropical cyclone(TC) genesis.The performance of LASG/IAP AGCM GAMIL2.0 in the simulation of GPI over the western North Pacific(WNP) is assessed in this paper.Since GPI depends on large scale environmental factors including low-level vorticity at 850 hPa,relative humidity at 700 hPa,vertical wind shear between 850 and 200 hPa,maximum potential intensity(MPI),and vertical velocity,the bias of GPI simulation is discussed from the perspective of thermal and dynamical factors.The results are compared with the ECMWF reanalysis data(ERA40).The analyses show that both the climatological spatial pattern and seasonal cycle of GPI over the WNP are reasonably simulated by GAMIL2.0,but due to the overestimation of relative humidity,the simulated GPI extends to 170°E,about 10°east to that in the reanalysis data.It is demonstrated that the bias in the simulation of monsoon trough,which is about 5°north to the reanalysis,leads to an overestimation of GPI during May-June and September-October,but an underestimation during July-August.Over the WNP,the response of GPI to ENSO is well captured by GAMIL2.0,including the eastward(westward) shift of TC genesis location during El Nin o(La Nin a) years.However,the anomalous convective center associated with El Nin o shifts westward about 20°in comparison to ERA40,which leads to the biases in both vertical velocity and relative humidity.These eventually result in the westward deflection of the boundary between the positive and negative GPI centers along 20°-30°N.The results from this study provide useful clues for the future improvement of GAMIL2.0.     

Teleconnections associated with Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation

The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) has strong convective activity centers in Indian (I), Western North Pacific (WNP), and North American (NA) summer monsoon (SM) regions. The present study attempts to reveal BSISO teleconnection patterns associated with these dominant intraseasonal variability centers. During the active phase of ISM, a zonally elongated band of enhanced convection extends from India via the Bay of Bengal and Philippine Sea to tropical central Pacific with suppressed convection over the eastern Pacific near Mexico. The corresponding extratropical circulation anomalies occur along the waveguides generated by the North African-Asian jet and North Atlantic-North European jet. When the tropical convection strengthens over the WNPSM sector, a distinct great circle-like Rossby wave train emanates from the WNP to the western coast of United States (US) with an eastward shift of enhanced meridional circulation. In the active phase of NASM, large anticyclonic anomalies anchor over the western coast of US and eastern Canada and the global teleconnection pattern is similar to that during a break phase of the ISM. Examination of the evolution of the BSISO teleconnection reveals quasi-stationary patterns with preferred centers of teleconnection located at Europe, Russia, central Asia, East Asia, western US, and eastern US and Canada, respectively. Most centers are embedded in the waveguide along the westerly jet stream, but the centers at Europe and Russia occur to the north of the jet-induced waveguide. Eastward propagation of the ISO teleconnection is evident over the Pacific-North America sector. The rainfall anomalies over the elongated band near the monsoon domain over the Indo-western Pacific sector have an opposite tendency with that over the central and southern China, Mexico and southern US, providing a source of intraseasonal predictability to extratropical regions. The BSISO teleconnection along and to the north of the subtropical jet provides a good indication of the surface sir temperature anomalies in the NH extratropics.     

Influence of monsoon over the warm pool on interannual variation on tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific

The relationship between the interannual variation in tropical cyclone （TC） activity over the western North Pacific （WNP） and the thermal state over the warm pool （WP） is examined in this paper. The results show that the subsurface temperature in the WP is well correlated with TC geographical distribution and track type. Their relation is linked by the East Asian monsoon trough. During the warm years, the westward-retreating monsoon trough creates convergence and vorticity fields that are favorable for tropical cyclogenesis in the northwest of the WNP, whereas more TCs concentrating in the southeast result from eastward penetration of the monsoon trough during the cold years. The steering flows at 500 hPa lead to a westward displacement track in the warm years and recurving prevailing track in the cold years.
The two types of distinct processes in the monsoon environment triggering tropical cyclogenesis are hypothesized by composites centered for TC genesis location corresponding to two kinds of thermal states of the WP. During the warm years, low-frequency intraseasonal oscillation is active in the west of the WNP such that eastward-propagating westerlies cluster TC genesis in that region. In contrast, during the cold years, the increased cyclogenesis in the southeast of the WNP is mainly associated with tropical depression type disturbances transiting from equatorially trapped mixed Rossby gravity waves. Both of the processes may be fundamental mechanisms for the inherent interannual variation in TC activity over the WNP.