Investigation of Uncertainties of Establishment Schemes in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models简

In Dynamic Global Vegetation Models （DGVMs）, the establishment of woody vegetation refers to flowering, fertiliza- tion, seed production, germination, and the growth of tree seedlings. It determines not only the population densities but also other important ecosystem structural variables. In current DGVMs, establishments of woody plant functional types （PFTs） are assumed to be either the same in the same grid cell, or largely stochastic. We investigated the uncertainties in the competition of establishment among coexisting woody PFTs from three aspects： the dependence of PFT establishments on vegetation states; background establishment; and relative establishment potentials of different PFTs. Sensitivity experi- ments showed that the dependence of establishment rate on the fractional coverage of a PFT favored the dominant PFT by increasing its share in establishment. While a small background establishment rate had little impact on equilibrium states of the ecosystem, it did change the timescale required for the establishment of alien species in pre-existing forest due to their disadvantage in seed competition during the early stage of invasion. Meanwhile, establishment purely fiom background （the scheme commonly used in current DGVMs） led to inconsistent behavior in response to the change in PFT specification （e.g., number of PFTs and their specification）. Furthermore, the results also indicated that trade-off between irtdividual growth and reproduction/colonization has significant influences on the competition of establishment. Hence, further development of es- tablishment parameterization in DGVMs is essential in reducing the uncertainties in simulations of both ecosystem structures and successions.     

一个用于气候模式的简单冻土过程参数化方案的建立和检验

在NCAR／LSM的基础上，发展了一个简单的冻土过程参数化方案，并使用苏联6个站的水气象观测资料考察了耦合了新方案模式的气候效应。在新方案中，加入了对含冰量的求解和在相变过程中的能量变化;并使用Johanson的方案替代了模式中原有的土壤导热率的参数化方案，考虑了含冰量对土壤水热性质的影响。原模式和改进后模式的模拟结果的比较得到，冻土过程方案能够合理的模拟土壤列中的能量收支及水热性质随含冰量的变化。随着入渗的减少和径流的增加，春季的土壤湿度减小。因此，热通量的分配和土壤温度也产生了相应的变化。     

Development of an integrated vertical-slantwise convective parameterization scheme and its associated numerical experiments

An integrated vertical-slantwise convective parameterization scheme, based on the vertical Kuo-Anthes and the slantwise Nordeng convective parameterization schemes, is introduced into the MM5 model. By employing the MM5 model with the proposed scheme, numerical simulations of a snowstorm event that occurred over southern China on 28-29 January 2008 and of Typhoon Haitang (2005) are conducted. The results indicate that during the snowstorm event, the atmosphere was convectively stable in the vertical directi...     

垂直-倾斜对流一体化参数化方案的实现及数值试验

在Kuo-Anthes垂直对流参数化方案和Nordeng倾斜对流参数化方案基础上,提出了垂直-倾斜对流一体化参数化方案,并引入MM5模式中.利用该方案对2008年1月28-29日发生在中国南方的一次暴雪过程和2005年"海棠"台风过程进行了数值模拟,模拟结果表明,此次暴雪过程在垂直方向主要表现对流稳定状态,但在对流层低层始终存在条件件对称不稳定层,并且当条件性对称不稳定区向高层发展时,伴随着强上升运动作为触发机制,引发条件性对称不稳定能量的释放,产生更多的对流降水,使模拟的总降水量与实况更加一致.条件性对称不稳定的发展加强与降雪强度、辐合辐散和上升运动变化一致,条件性对称不稳定是造成暴雪发展加强的主要机制之一.通过对"海棠"台风72 h的模拟表明,条件性对称不稳定主要发生在台风的低层,且其水平分布呈螺旋状结构.条件性对称不稳定效应对台风路径影响较小,但对台风强度影响较大,在模式中考虑垂直-倾斜对流一体化参数化方案后,与仅考虑垂直积云对流参数化方案相比,72 h模拟的平均台风中心最低气压降低了3 hPa,最大达8 hPa.在模式中考虑条件性对称不稳定的影响,可使模式台风中上层的暖心结构更加明显,上升运动和对流性降水增强,对流释放的更多凝结潜热使台风得到进一步加强.     

Application of a Shape-Preserving Advection Scheme to the Moisture Equation in an E-grid Regional Forecast Model

This paper presents a methodology which is very useful to design shape-preserving advection finite difference scheme on general E-grid horizontal arrangement of variables through introducing a two-step shape-preserving positive definite advection scheme in the moisture equation of the LASG-REM (LASG regional E-grid eta-coordinate forecast model). By trial-forecasting six local heavy raincases, the efficiency of the shape-preserving advection scheme in practical application has been examined. The LASG-REM with the shape-preserving advection scheme has a good forecasting ability for local precipitation.     

Description and first results of an explicit electrical scheme in a 3D cloud resolving model

The three-dimensional non-hydrostatic mesoscale model MésoNH of the French community offers the numerical environment to develop a cloud electrification scheme in a consistent way with the original mixed phase microphysical scheme. The charge separation mechanisms are entirely due to non-inductive processes and result from elastic ice–snow, ice–graupel and snow–graupel collisions. The electric charges carried by each of the five hydrometeor categories are transported along the airflow and are exchanged according to the various microphysical mass transfer rates but assuming a power law distribution of the individual charges as a function of the particle size. The electric field is diagnosed at each time step after integrating the electric potential induced by a net charge density in the Poisson equation. Finally, a lightning ash is triggered when the electric field locally steps over a given threshold. It propagates in two opposite directions until the magnitude of the electric field falls below a prescribed value. A fractal branching algorithm is then activated to extend lightning streamers away from the main channel and toward cloudy regions where substantial charge densities are present. Charges are neutralized along the tortuous lightning path with a simple procedure that preserves total charge conservation.The complete electrification scheme tested for an ideal case of vigorous supercellular storm shows an intense electrical activity all along its lifecycle. We show that the model is able to produce a direct tripolar structure of the charges as the result of a temperature charge reversal of − 10 °C and of the different sedimentation rates of the hydrometeors.     

三维插值方法在2 m温度评估中的应用

模式地形与实况站点地形高度间固有差异严重影响了2 m温度检验评估精度,传统二维插值方法仅满足预报要素与实况观测间经纬度二维空间上的一致性,而忽略了垂直方向的一致性问题,使得检验评估中预报与观测不在同一三维空间上进行检验,从而引起严重的评估误导.利用模式三维预报变量,结合近地面要素预报产品,建立新的近地面要素三维插值方法,以确保预报与观测在三维空间上保持一致性.利用2013年7月整月24 h预报产品与观测的对比分析发现,新插值方法有效地改进了由于地形误差引起的评估误导问题,在不同地形高度条件下均保持了较为一致的误差分布趋势,显示其评估结论不受地形因素影响,具有更好的实际应用价值.进一步关注新插值方法在复杂地形区不同模拟分辨率条件下的评估改进效果,采用GRAPES区域预报模式（GRAPES-MESO4.0）针对2012年7月个例,对青藏高原复杂地形区进行了不同分辨率（45、15、5和2 km）条件下的60 h模拟敏感分析,结果表明新插值方法在高分辨率条件下（2 km）依然显示出明显的改进优势.     

Improving the vegetation dynamic simulation in a land surface model by using a statistical-dynamic canopy interception scheme

Canopy interception of incident precipitation, as a critical component of a forest＇s water budget, can affect the amount of water available to the soil, and ultimately vegetation distribution and function. In this paper, a statistical-dynamic approach based on leaf area index and statistical canopy interception is used to parameterize the canopy interception process. The statistical-dynamic canopy interception scheme is implemented into the Community Land Model with dynamic global vegetation model （CLM-DGVM） to improve its dynamic vegetation simulation. The simulation for continental China by the land surface model with the new canopy interception scheme shows that the new one reasonably represents the precipitation intercepted by the canopy. Moreover, the new scheme enhances the water availability in the root zone for vegetation growth, especially in the densely vegetated and semi-arid areas, and improves the model＇s performance of potential vegetation simulation.     

The numerical scheme development of a simplified frozen soil model

In almost all frozen soil models used currently, three variables of temperature, ice content and moisture content are used as prognostic variables and the rate term, accounting for the contribution of the phase change between water and ice, is shown explicitly in both the energy and mass balance equations. The models must be solved by a numerical method with an iterative process, and the rate term of the phase change needs to be pre-estimated at the beginning in each iteration step. Since the rate term of the phase change in the energy equation is closely related to the release or absorption of the great amount of fusion heat, a small error in the rate term estimation will introduce greater error in the energy balance, which will amplify the error in the temperature calculation and in turn, cause problems for the numerical solution convergence. In this work, in order to first reduce the trouble, the methodology of the variable transformation is applied to a simplified frozen soil model used currently, which leads to new frozen soil scheme used in this work. In the new scheme, the enthalpy and the total water equivalent are used as predictive variables in the governing equations to replace temperature, volumetric soil moisture and ice content used in many current models. By doing so, the rate terms of the phase change are not shown explicitly in both the mass and energy equations and its pre-estimation is avoided. Secondly, in order to solve this new scheme more functionally, the development of the numerical scheme to the new scheme is described and a numerical algorithm appropriate to the numerical scheme is developed. In order to evaluate the new scheme of the frozen soil model and its relevant algorithm, a series of model evaluations are conducted by comparing numerical results from the new model scheme with three observational data sets. The comparisons show that the results from the model are in good agreement with these data sets in both the change trend of variables and their magnitude values, and the new scheme, together with the algorithm, is more efficient and saves more computer time.     

Implementation of the semi-Lagrangian advection scheme on a quasi-uniform overset grid on a sphere

The semi-Lagrangian advection scheme is implemented on a new quasi-uniform overset （Yin-Yang） grid on the sphere. The Yin-Yang grid is a newly developed grid system in spherical geometry with two perpendicularly-oriented latitude-longitude grid components （called Yin and Yang respectively） that overlapp each other, and this effectively avoids the coordinate singularity and the grid convergence near the poles. In this overset grid, the way of transferring data between the Yin and Yang components is the key to maintaining the accuracy and robustness in numerical solutions. A numerical interpolation for boundary data exchange, which maintains the accuracy of the original advection scheme and is computationally efficient, is given in this paper. A standard test of the solid-body advection proposed by Williamson is carried out on the Yin-Yang grid. Numerical results show that the quasi-uniform Yin-Yang grid can get around the problems near the poles, and the numerical accuracy in the original semi-Lagrangian scheme is effectively maintained in the Yin-Yang grid.     

GRAPES全球模式云方案的诊断研究

在对GRAPES全球预报系统(GRAPES_GFS)云预报性能进行诊断评估的基础上,对凝结(华)和蒸发等物理过程及对流卷出对云的影响过程进行改进和优化,旨在提高GRAPES_GFS云量及其特征量和降水的预报精度.通过研究GRAPES全球模式、欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)和美国环境预报中心(NCEP)全球模式中3种...     

一次强降水模拟中土壤湿度初值的影响研究

为了分析WRFV3.3.1模式中土壤湿度初值对降水模拟的影响,在4个陆面方案的分析对比基础上,采用中国区域土壤湿度同化系统（CLSMDAS）输出的土壤湿度替换模式初始场中的土壤湿度,对2010年6月19日江西出现的一次强降水过程进行模拟,分析改进后的土壤湿度初值对模式模拟降水的影响。结果表明,耦合Noah方案的模拟结果要优于SLAB、RUC、PX方案;通过对比试验发现CLSMDAS输出的土壤湿度初始条件下的模拟结果比NCEP资料的模拟结果更接近于实况,能够很好地模拟出24 h累积降水的范围与强度,对应地表能量的响应也更为明显,表现出很好的区域波动性,能够捕捉到细节降水信息,且统计检验结果中各量级降水的TS评分基本都要高于NCEP土壤湿度初值条件下的结果,空报率、漏报率和预报偏差进一步减小,说明准确的土壤湿度初值能够提高模式的模拟预报能力。     

High-order compact MacCormack scheme for two-dimensional compressible and non-hydrostatic equations of the atmosphere

This study is devoted to application of the fourth-order compact MacCormack scheme to spatial differencing of the conservative form of two-dimensional and non-hydrostatic equation of a dry atmosphere. To advance the solution in time a four-stage Runge–Kutta method is used. To perform the simulations, two test cases including evolution of a warm bubble and a cold bubble in a neutral atmosphere with open and rigid boundaries are employed. In addition, the second-order MacCormack and the standard fourth-order compact MacCormack schemes are used to perform the simulations. Qualitative and quantitative assessment of the numerical results for different test cases exhibit the superiority of the fourth-order compact MacCormack scheme on the second-order method.     

An improvement of the mass flux convection parameterization scheme and its sensitivity tests for seasonal prediction over China

A modified cumulus parameterization scheme, suitable for use in a seasonal forecast model, is presented. This parameterization scheme is an improvement of the mass flux convection scheme developed by Gregory and Rowntree (1989; 1990). This convection scheme uses a “bulk” cloud model to present an ensemble of convective clouds, and aims to represent shallow, deep, and mid-level convection. At present,this convection scheme is employed in the NCC T63L20 model (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration). Simulation results with this scheme have revealed some deficiencies in the scheme,although to some extent, it improves the accuracy of the simulation. In order to alleviate the deficiencies and reflect the effect of cumulus convection in the actual atmosphere, the scheme is modified and improved.The improvements include (i) the full estimation of the effects of the large-scale convergence in the lower layer upon cumulus convection, (ii) the revision of the initial convective mass flux, and (iii) the regulation of convective-scale downdrafts. A comparison of the results obtained by using the original model and the modified one shows that the improvement and modification of the original convection scheme is successful in simulating the precipitation and general circulation field, because the modified scheme provides a good simulation of the main features of seasonal precipitation in China, and an analysis of the anomaly correlation eoetfieient between the simulation and the observations confirms the improved results.     

A Coupling Experiment of an Atmosphere and an Ocean Model with a Monthly Anomaly Exchange Scheme

A nine-layer spectral atmospheric general circulation model is coupled to a twenty-layer global oceanic general circulation model with the “prediction-correction” monthly anomaly exchange scheme which has been proposed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP). A forty-year integration of the coupled model shows that the CGCM is fairly successful in keeping a reasonable pattern of the modelled SST although most of the Pacific become warmer than those given by the uncoupled ocean model. The model tends to reach a more realistic state than the uncoupled one in terms of downward surface heat flux into ocean particularly in the equatorial Pacific region. Also, the model is capable to simulate interannual variability of sea surface temperature in tropical region.     

Development of a model for water and heat exchange between the atmosphere and a water body

A model for studying the heat and mass exchange between the atmosphere and a water body is developed, in which the phase change process of water freezing in winter and melting in summer and the function of the convective mixing process are taken into consideration. The model uses enthalpy rather than temperature as the predictive variable. It helps to set up governing equations more concisely, to deal with the phase change process more easily, and make the numerical scheme simpler. The model is verified by observed data from Lake Kinneret for a non-frozen lake in summer time, and Lake Lower Two Medicine for a frozen lake in winter time. Reasonably good agreements between the model simulations and observed data indicate that the model can serve as a component for a water body in a land surface model. In order to more efficiently apply the scheme in a climate system model, a sensitivity study of various division schemes with less layers in the vertical direction in the water body is conducted. The results of the study show that the division with around 10 vertical layers could produce a prediction accuracy that is comparable to the fine division with around 40 layers.     

Comparison of Liquid Water Content Retrievals for Airborne Millimeter-Wave Radar with Different Particle Parameter Schemes

In the application of the physical iterative method to retrieve millimeter-wave radar liquid water content(LWC) and liquid water path(LWP), particle parameter scheme is the main factor affecting retrieval performance. In this paper, synchronous measurements of an airborne millimeter-wave radar and a hot-wire probe in stratus cloud are used to compare the LWC retrievals of the oceanic and continental particle parameter scheme with diameter less than 50μm and the particle parameter scheme with diameter less than 500μm and 1500μm(scheme 1, scheme 2, scheme 3, and scheme4, respectively). The results show that the particle parameter scheme needs to be selected according to the reflectivity factor when using the physical iterative method to retrieve the LWC and LWP. When the reflectivity factor is less than-30 d BZ, the retrieval error of scheme 1 is the minimum. When the reflectivity factor is greater than-30 d BZ, the retrieval error of scheme 4 is the minimum. Based on the reflectance factor value, the LWP retrievals of scheme 4 are closer to the measurements, the average relative bias is 5.2%, and the minimum relative bias is 4.4 %. Compared with other schemes,scheme 4 seems to be more useful for the LWC and LWP retrieval of stratus cloud in China.     

中国气候资料站网均匀化订正的一种方案及应用

定义了中国160站站网不均匀性的两个度量参数—站域面积和站网密度。在给定球冠区面积S0=50×104km2下求得了它们的值,并论证了其合理性。用它们构造了第一类权重函数,将该权重函数应用于中国160站站网1、4、7、10月气温的全国气候平均值及均方差值的计算,得到了合理的结果。同时,构造了第二类权重函数,并应用于气温距平场时间序列的订正,对订正前、后的距平场序列进行EOF（empiricalorthogonalfunctions）分析,论证了订正后的结果优于订正前。     

闽东南花生、甘薯气象条件分析

利用闽东南近10多年花生、甘薯的农业气象资料，分析花生、甘薯生产的条件。根据回归统计分析得出以下结论：（1）夏、秋旱是制约闽东南花生、甘薯产量的主要气象灾害。（2）当春花生在6月下旬－7月出现持续无透雨天数＞20d，且耕作层土壤相对湿度达30％以下时，将影响花生子粒膨大，造成减产。（3）当8－10月持续无透雨＞30d，且耕作层土壤相对湿度达25％以下，将影响甘薯膨大。（4）若6－10月该地出现连续大－暴雨过程，由于旱地耕作层蓄水能力低，将造成水肥大量流失，生态恶化。（5）闽东南旱地土壤蓄水能力低，水资源匮乏，应加大投资力度，将地面灌溉改为喷洒灌溉，既可防止水肥流失，又可提高水的利用率。     

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Trace Element Contents in Xanthoria Parietina Thalli Collected in a Highly Industrialized Area in Northern France as an Element for a Future Epidemiological Study

This work was made in Dunkirk, which is located on the French coast, in the north, near Belgium and Great Britain. The study concerned the industrial and urban surroundings of Dunkirk and Dunkirk itself. Objectives of our study is (1) to monitor spatial patterns and temporal trends (1995–2003) of trace element (As, Cd, Hg, Ni, Pb, V, Zn) deposition and (2) to make a first evaluation of exposed population to highest metals concentrations. This work is the first step of future epidemiological investigation. In 1995, the high lead concentrations were due to industrial emissions and to traffic. Zinc and arsenic concentrations were also high and widespread in the entire studied zone, but higher near industrial area. Mercury concentrations were limited in the western part and clearly revealed the impact of waste incinerator. We did not find any significant difference between trace element contents in lichens between 1995 and 2003 except for mercury, which decreased. In 2003, the contamination by lead was more focused in the biggest metallurgical plant, which is now the predominant source for this element. The traffic impact decreased, but there was still lead remaining. For the other elements the highest concentrations were observed near the industrial zone. Highest contaminations concern 25–33% of the population, who live near industrial zone in districts where annual average incomes are the lowest. Those results confirm the needs for a further epidemiological study, which could take place in priority where population is the most exposed.