Asymmetric distribution of convection in tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific Ocean

Forecasts of the intensity and quantitative precipitation of tropical cyclones(TCs) are generally inaccurate, because the strength and structure of a TC show a complicated spatiotemporal pattern and are affected by various factors. Among these, asymmetric convection plays an important role. This study investigates the asymmetric distribution of convection in TCs over the western North Pacific during the period 2005–2012, based on data obtained from the Feng Yun 2(FY2)geostationary satellite. The asymmetric distributions of the incidence, intensity and morphology of convections are analyzed.Results show that the PDFs of the convection occurrence curve to the azimuth are sinusoidal. The rear-left quadrant relative to TC motion shows the highest occurrence rate of convection, while the front-right quadrant has the lowest. In terms of intensity, weak convections are favored in the front-left of a TC at large distances, whereas strong convections are more likely to appear to the rear-right of a TC within a 300 km range. More than 70% of all MCSs examined here are elongated systems, and meso-β enlongated convective systems(MβECSs) are the most dominant type observed in the outer region of a TC. Smaller MCSs tend to be more concentrated near the center of a TC. While semi-circular MCSs [MβCCSs, MCCs(mesoscale convective complexes)] show a high incidence rate to the rear of a TC, elongated MCSs [MβECSs, PECSs(persistent elongated convective systems)] are more likely to appear in the rear-right quadrant of a TC within a range of 400 km.     

Latitudinal dependence of the dry air effect on tropical cyclone development

The impacts of dry air on tropical cyclone (TC) development at different latitudes with no mean flows are investigated with idealized simulations. It is found that the effective radius of the dry air is sensitive to its vertical distribution and the background earth rotation. The effect of low-level dry-air layer in inhibiting TC development decreases with increasing latitude. At lower latitudes, the greater boundary layer gradient wind imbalance results in a strong low-level inflow, and the dry air can easily penetrate into the TC inner-core region. The intruding dry air inhibits the inner-core deep convection and leads to marked asymmetric convective structure, which significantly suppresses TC development. In contrast, at higher latitudes, the dry air gets moistened before reaching the TC inner-core region due to a weaker radial inflow but can suppress the development of the outer spiral rainbands. The suppressed outer spiral rainbands lead to a weaker barrier effect to the boundary layer inflow and help TC development. Furthermore, the lower the altitude of dry-air layer resides, the greater the impact on TC intensification. The low-level pathway associated with the boundary layer inflow plays an important role on how dry-air layer acts on a TC without considering the mean flow effects. Through examining the climatological distribution of the moisture field, we expect that the intrusion of dry air can be more frequent in the North Atlantic area and therefore has more effects on TC development than in the western North Pacific.     

Sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensification to inner-core structure

In this study, the dependence of tropical cyclone (TC) development on the inner-core structure of the parent vortex is examined using a pair of idealized numerical simulations. It is found that the radial profile of inner-core relative vorticity may have a great impact on its subsequent development. For a system with a larger inner-core relative vorticity/inertial stability, the conversion ratio of the diabatic heating to kinetic energy is greater. Furthermore, the behavior of the convective vorticity eddies is likely modulated by the system-scale circulation. For a parent vortex with a relatively higher inner-core vorticity and larger negative radial vorticity gradient, convective eddy formation and radially inward propagation is promoted through vorticity segregation. This provides a greater potential for these small-scale convective cells to self-organize into a mesoscale inner-core structure in the TC. In turn, convectively induced diabatic heating that is close to the center, along with higher inertial stability, efficiently enhances system-scale secondary circulation. This study provides a solid basis for further research into how the initial structure of a TC influences storm dynamics and thermodynamics.     

EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE

In this study,the effect of vertical wind shear(VWS)on the intensification of tropical cyclone(TC)is investigated via the numerical simulations.Results indicate that weak shear tends to facilitate the development of TC while strong shear appears to inhibit the intensification of TC.As the VWS is imposed on the TC,the vortex of the cyclone tends to tilt vertically and significantly in the upper troposphere.Consequently,the upward motion is considerably enhanced in the downshear side of the storm center and correspondingly,the low-to mid-level potential temperature decreases under the effect of adiabatic cooling,which leads to the increase of the low-to mid-level static instability and relative humidity and then facilitates the burst of convection.In the case of weak shear,the vertical tilting of the vortex is weak and the increase of ascent,static instability and relative humidity occur in the area close to the TC center.Therefore,active convection happens in the TC center region and facilitates the enhancement of vorticity in the inner core region and then the intensification of TC.In contrast,due to strong VWS,the increase of the ascent,static instability and relative humidity induced by the vertical tilting mainly appear in the outer region of TC in the case with stronger shear,and the convection in the inner-core area of TC is rather weak and convective activity mainly happens in the outer-region of the TC.Therefore,the development of a warm core is inhibited and then the intensification of TC is delayed.Different from previous numerical results obtained by imposing VWS suddenly to a strong TC,the simulation performed in this work shows that,even when the VWS is as strong as 12 m s-1,the tropical storm can still experience rapid intensification and finally develop into a strong tropical cyclone after a relatively long period of adjustment.It is found that the convection plays an important role in the adjusting period.On one hand,the convection leads to the horizontal convergence of the low-level vorticity flux and therefore leads to the enhancement of the low-level vorticity in the inner-core area of the cyclone.On the other hand,the active ascent accompanying the convection tends to transport the low-level vorticity to the middle levels.The enhanced vorticity in the lower to middle troposphere strengths the interaction between the low-and mid-level cyclonical circulation and the upper-level circulation deviated from the storm center under the effect of VWS.As a result,the vertical tilting of the vortex is considerably decreased,and then the cyclone starts to develop rapidly.     

Evaluation of Two Initialization Schemes for Simulating the Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Lekima(2019)

Two different initialization schemes for tropical cyclone(TC) prediction in numerical models are evaluated based on a case study of Typhoon Lekima(2019). The first is a dynamical initialization(DI) scheme where the axisymmetric TC vortex in the initial conditions is spun up through the 6-h cycle runs before the initial forecast time. The second scheme is a bogussing scheme where the analysis TC vortex is replaced by a synthetic Rankine vortex. Results show that although both initialization schemes can help improve the simulated rapid intensification(RI) of Lekima, the simulation employing the DI scheme(DIS) reproduces better the RI onset and intensification rate than that employing the bogussing scheme(BOG).Further analyses show the cycle runs of DI help establish a realistic TC structure with stronger secondary circulation than those in the control run and BOG, leading to fast vortex spinup and contraction of the radius of maximum wind(RMW).The resultant strong inner-core primary circulation favors precession of the midlevel vortex under the moderate vertical wind shear(VWS) and thus helps vortex alignment, contributing to an earlier RI onset. Afterwards, the decreased vertical shear and the stronger convection inside the RMW support the persistent RI of Lekima in DIS. In contrast, the reduced VWS is not well captured and the inner-core convection is weaker and resides farther away from the TC center in BOG,leading to slower intensification. The results imply that the DI effectively improves the prediction of the inner-core process,which is crucial to the RI forecast.     

台风Rammasun(2014)与飓风Wilma(2005)快速增强过程的内核结构变化比较

热带气旋的快速增强机制目前仍然不太清楚,不少研究开始关注快速增强过程中热带气旋内核结构的变化。通过比较模拟的西北太平洋超强台风Rammasun (2014)和大西洋5级飓风Wilma (2005)快速增强过程中内核结构的变化特点,理解内核结构在快速增强过程中的变化特点。飓风Wilma是一个典型的快速增强热带气旋,快速增强期间具有弱的环境垂直切变、对称的眼墙、较小的中心倾斜以及比较直立的眼墙。但是,台风Rammasun快速增强发生在较强切变(超过10 m/s)环境下,眼墙对流呈高度不对称,强对流基本固定在台风中心的南侧。整个快速增强期间,Rammasun在垂直方向上维持较大的中心倾斜以及较大的眼墙倾斜。结果表明,快速增强也可能在不完全对称的内核结构和倾斜垂直结构的情况下发生。      

Statistics of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Z</Emphasis>–<Emphasis Type="Italic">R</Emphasis> Relationship for Strong Convective Weather over the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin and Its Application to Radar Reflectivity Data Assimilation for a Heavy Rain Event

The relationship between the radar reflectivity factor (Z) and the rainfall rate (R) is recalculated based on radar observations from 10 Doppler radars and hourly rainfall measurements at 6529 automatic weather stations over the Yangtze–Huaihe River basin. The data were collected by the National 973 Project from June to July 2013 for severe convective weather events. The Z–R relationship is combined with an empirical q_r–R relationship to obtain a new Z–q_r relationship, which is then used to correct the observational operator for radar reflectivity in the three-dimensional variational (3DVar) data assimilation system of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to improve the analysis and prediction of severe convective weather over the Yangtze–Huaihe River basin. The performance of the corrected reflectivity operator used in the WRF 3DVar data assimilation system is tested with a heavy rain event that occurred over Jiangsu and Anhui provinces and the surrounding regions on 23 June 2013. It is noted that the observations for this event are not included in the calculation of the Z–R relationship. Three experiments are conducted with the WRF model and its 3DVar system, including a control run without the assimilation of reflectivity data and two assimilation experiments with the original and corrected reflectivity operators. The experimental results show that the assimilation of radar reflectivity data has a positive impact on the rainfall forecast within a few hours with either the original or corrected reflectivity operators, but the corrected reflectivity operator achieves a better performance on the rainfall forecast than the original operator. The corrected reflectivity operator extends the effective time of radar data assimilation for the prediction of strong reflectivity. The physical variables analyzed with the corrected reflectivity operator present more reasonable mesoscale structures than those obtained with the original reflectivity operator. This suggests that the new statistical Z–R relationship is more suitable for predicting severe convective weather over the Yangtze–Huaihe River basin than the Z–R relationships currently in use.     

Turbulent Structure of a Simplified Urban Fluid Flow Studied Through Stereoscopic Particle Image Velocimetry

Stereoscopic particle image velocimetry was used to provide a three-dimensional characterization of the flow around a simplified urban model defined by a 5 by 7 array of blocks, forming four parallel streets, perpendicular to the incoming wind direction corresponding to a zero angle of incidence. Channeling of the flow through the array under consideration was observed, and its effect increased as the incoming wind direction, or angle of incidence (AOI), was changed from \(0^{\circ }\) to \(15^{\circ }\), \(30^{\circ }\), and \(45^{\circ }\). The flow between blocks can be divided into two regions: a region of low turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) levels close to the leeward side of the upstream block, and a high TKE area close to the downstream block. The centre of the arch vortex is located in the low TKE area, and two regions of large streamwise velocity fluctuation bound the vortex in the spanwise direction. Moreover, a region of large spanwise velocity fluctuation on the downstream block is found between the vortex legs. Our results indicate that the reorientation of the arch vortex at increasing AOI is produced by the displacement of the different TKE regions and their interaction with the shear layers on the sides and top of the upstream and downstream blocks, respectively. There is also a close connection between the turbulent structure between the blocks and the wind gusts. The correlations among gust components were also studied, and it was found that in the near-wall region of the street the correlations between the streamwise and spanwise gusts \(R_{uv}\) were dominant for all four AOI cases. At higher wall-normal positions in the array, the \(R_{uw}\) correlation decreased with increasing AOI, whereas the \(R_{uv}\) coefficient increased as AOI increased, and at \({\textit{AOI}}=45^{\circ }\) all three correlations exhibited relatively high values of around 0.4.     

Evaluation of the impact of observations on blended sea surface winds in a two-dimensional variational scheme using degrees of freedom

This paper presents an evaluation of the observational impacts on blended sea surface winds from a two-dimensional variational data assimilation (2D-Var) scheme. We begin by briefly introducing the analysis sensitivity with respect to observations in variational data assimilation systems and its relationship with the degrees of freedom for signal (DFS), and then the DFS concept is applied to the 2D-Var sea surface wind blending scheme. Two methods, a priori and a posteriori, are used to estimate the DFS of the zonal (u) and meridional (v) components of winds in the 2D-Var blending scheme. The a posteriori method can obtain almost the same results as the a priori method. Because only by-products of the blending scheme are used for the a posteriori method, the computation time is reduced significantly. The magnitude of the DFS is critically related to the observational and background error statistics. Changing the observational and background error variances can affect the DFS value. Because the observation error variances are assumed to be uniform, the observational influence at each observational location is related to the background error variance, and the observations located at the place where there are larger background error variances have larger influences. The average observational influence of u and v with respect to the analysis is about 40%, implying that the background influence with respect to the analysis is about 60%.     

Idealized Numerical Simulations of Tropical Cyclone Formation Associated with Monsoon Gyres简

Monsoon gyres have been identified as one of the important large-scale circulation patterns associated with tropical cyclone （TC） formation in the western North Pacific.A recent observational analysis indicated that most TCs form near the center of monsoon gyres or at the northeast end of the enhanced low-level southwesterly flows on the southeast-east periphery of monsoon gyres.In the present reported study,idealized numerical experiments were conducted to examine the tropical cyclogenesis associated with Rossby wave energy dispersion with an initial idealized monsoon gyre.The numerical simulations showed that the development of the low-level enhanced southwesterly flows on the southeasteast periphery of monsoon gyres can be induced by Rossby wave energy dispersion.Mesoscale convective systems emerged from the northeast end of the enhanced southwesterly flows with mid-level maximum relative vorticity.The simulated TC formed in the northeast of the monsoon gyre and moved westward towards the center of the monsoon gyre.The numerical experiment with a relatively smaller sized initial monsoon gyre showed the TC forming near the center of the initial monsoon gyre.The results of the present study suggest that Rossby wave energy dispersion can play an important role in TC formation in the presence of monsoon gyres.     

Effect of the Initial Vortex Structure on Intensity Change During Eyewall Replacement Cycle of Tropical Cyclones: A Numerical Study

This study investigates the effect of the initial tropical cyclone (TC) vortex structure on the intensity change during the eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) of TCs based on two idealized simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Results show that an initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds experienced a much more drastic intensity change during the ERC than an initially larger TC with stronger outer winds. It is found that an initially larger TC vortex with stronger outer winds favored the development of more active spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall, which slowed down the contraction and intensification of the outer eyewall and thus prolonged the duration of the concentric eyewall and slow intensity evolution. In contrast, the initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds corresponded to higher inertial stability in the inner core and weaker inertial stability but stronger filamentation outside the outer eyewall. These led to stronger boundary layer inflow, stronger updraft and convection in the outer eyewall, and suppressed convective activity outside the outer eyewall. These resulted in the rapid weakening during the formation of the outer eyewall, followed by a rapid re-intensification of the TC during the ERC. Our study demonstrates that accurate in- itialization of the TC structure in numerical models is crucial for predicting changes in TC intensity during the ERC. Additionally, monitoring the activity of spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall can help to improve short-term intensity forecasts for TCs experiencing ERCs.     

Experimental Investigation on Shear-Stress Partitioning for Flexible Plants with Approximately Zero Basal-to-Frontal Area Ratio in a Wind Tunnel

Shear-stress partitioning is investigated for one type of flexible plant for very small values of the basal-to-frontal area ratio σ (0.001–0.007). The plant model is made of plastic with irregular structures, which are different from previously investigated rigid regular or flexible roughness elements with larger σ values. The distribution of the surface shear stress and the total shear stress at four plant densities with five plant heights are measured in a wind tunnel using Irwin-type sensors and a load cell, respectively. The wind-tunnel experiments prove that, for these flexible plants, the plant height and lateral cover usually decrease with increasing friction velocity, especially for taller plants, while the plant coverage generally increases. However, these characteristics may be inconsistent with flexible roughness elements with very large σ values (and usually very low aspect ratios) because these elements are less flexible. The present flexible plants generally result in lower shear-stress ratios compared with other roughness elements, which is also proven by the higher values of β (the ratio of the drag coefficient of an isolated roughness element to that of the bare surface) and a constant m (accounting for the difference between the average and peak surface shear stresses) from the present experiments (β?=?184–210 and m?=?0.68–0.79). The peak mean stress ratio of the present flexible plants is not a constant (1.07–1.54) because it is affected by the lateral cover, which is different from previous studies that consider the ratio to be constant without regard for the lateral cover.     

Trend analysis of rainfall time series for Sindh river basin in India

The main goal of this paper is to estimate a set of optimal seasonal, daily, and hourly values of atmospheric turbidity and surface radiative parameters Ångström’s turbidity coefficient (β), Ångström’s wavelength exponent (α), aerosol single scattering albedo (ω_o), forward scatterance (F_c) and average surface albedo (ρ_g), using the Brute Force multidimensional minimization method to minimize the difference between measured and simulated solar irradiance components, expressed as cost functions. In order to simulate the components of short-wave solar irradiance (direct, diffuse and global) for clear sky conditions, incidents on a horizontal surface in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro (MARJ), Brazil (22° 51′ 27″ S, 43° 13′ 58″ W), we use two parameterized broadband solar irradiance models, called CPCR2 and Iqbal C, based on synoptic information. The meteorological variables such as precipitable water (u_w) and ozone concentration (u_o) required by the broadband solar models were obtained from moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor on Terra and Aqua NASA platforms. For the implementation and validation processes, we use global and diffuse solar irradiance data measured by the radiometric platform of LabMiM, located in the north area of the MARJ. The data were measured between the years 2010 and 2012 at 1-min intervals. The performance of solar irradiance models using optimal parameters was evaluated with several quantitative statistical indicators and a subset of measured solar irradiance data. Some daily results for Ångström’s wavelength exponent α were compared with Ångström’s parameter (440–870 nm) values obtained by aerosol robotic network (AERONET) for 11 days, showing an acceptable level of agreement. Results for Ångström’s turbidity coefficient β, associated with the amount of aerosols in the atmosphere, show a seasonal pattern according with increased precipitation during summer months (December–February) in the MARJ.     

Analysis of an Ensemble of High-Resolution WRF Simulations for the Rapid Intensification of Super Typhoon Rammasun(2014)

Diagnostics are presented from an ensemble of high-resolution forecasts that differed markedly in their predictions of the rapid intensification(RI)of Typhoon Rammasun.We show that the basic difference stems from subtle differences in initializations of(a)500-850-h Pa environmental winds,and(b)midlevel moisture and ventilation.We then describe how these differences impact on the evolving convective organization,storm structure,and the timing of RI.As expected,ascent,diabatic heating and the secondary circulation near the inner-core are much stronger in the member that best forecasts the RI.The evolution of vortex cloudiness from this member is similar to the actual imagery,with the development of an inner cloud band wrapping inwards to form the eyewall.We present evidence that this structure,and hence the enhanced diabatic heating,is related to the tilt and associated dynamics of the developing inner-core in shear.For the most accurate ensemble member:(a)inhibition of ascent and a reduction in convection over the up-shear sector allow moistening of the boundary-layer air,which is transported to the down-shear sector to feed a developing convective asymmetry;(b)with minimal ventilation,undiluted clouds and moisture from the down-shear left quadrant are then wrapped inwards to the up-shear left quadrant to form the eyewall cloud;and(c)this process seems related to a critical down-shear tilt of the vortex from midlevels,and the vertical phase-locking of the circulation over up-shear quadrants.For the member that forecasts a much-delayed RI,these processes are inhibited by stronger vertical wind shear,initially resulting in poor vertical coherence of the circulation,lesser moisture and larger ventilation.Our analysis suggests that ensemble prediction is needed to account for the sensitivity of forecasts to a relatively narrow range of environmental wind shear,moisture and vortex inner-structure.     

Effect of solubility limitation on hygroscopic growth and cloud drop activation of SOA particles produced from traffic exhausts

Hygroscopicity measurements of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) particles often show inconsistent results between the supersaturated and subsaturated regimes, with higher activity as cloud condensation nucleus (CCN) than indicated by hygroscopic growth. In this study, we have investigated the discrepancy between the two regimes in the Lund University (LU) smog chamber. Various anthropogenic SOA were produced from mixtures of different precursors: anthropogenic light aromatic precursors (toluene and m-xylene), exhaust from a diesel passenger vehicle spiked with the light aromatic precursors, and exhaust from two different gasoline-powered passenger vehicles. Three types of seed particles were used: soot aggregates from a diesel vehicle, soot aggregates from a flame soot generator and ammonium sulphate (AS) particles. The hygroscopicity of seed particles with condensed, photochemically produced, anthropogenic SOA was investigated with respect to critical supersaturation (s_c) and hygroscopic growth factor (gf) at 90% relative humidity. The hygroscopicity parameter κ was calculated for the two regimes: κ_sc and κ_gf, from measurements of s_c and gf, respectively. The two κ showed significant discrepancies, with a κ_gf /κ_sc ratio closest to one for the gasoline experiments with ammonium sulphate seed and lower for the soot seed experiments. Empirical observations of s_c and gf were compared to theoretical predictions, using modified Köhler theory where water solubility limitations were taken into account. The results indicate that the inconsistency between measurements in the subsaturated and supersaturated regimes may be explained by part of the organic material in the particles produced from anthropogenic precursors having a limited solubility in water.     

西北太平洋热带气旋快速增强阶段的风速分布特征

利用联合台风预警中心的最优路径（best-track）资料,筛选出西北太平洋地区快速增强和非快速增强两类热带气旋样本。利用美国国家海洋与大气管理局（NOAA）的多平台热带气旋表面风分析资料,对比分析了两类样本的风速和涡度的分布特征。结果显示,快速增强的热带气旋样本通常结构更紧凑,最大风速较大,最大风速半径较小,台风内区的风速较大。在涡度上表现为快速增强热带气旋样本内区的涡度和涡度梯度较大。对两类样本进行t检验,结果显示两类样本内区的切向风差异明显,说明热带气旋的内区风速分布与其发展之间存在密切联系。其物理机制可能是:当存在较大的内区涡度梯度时,涡度隔离机制有利于对流单体向涡旋中心汇聚,此外较大的涡度意味着较大的惯性稳定度,有利于非绝热加热向热带气旋动能的转换,二者共同作用有利于热带气旋的快速发展。      

Cold air outbreaks along a non-frozen sea channel: effects of wind on snow bands

Wintertime cold air outbreaks along a non-frozen sea channel or a long lake can become destructive if the related bands of heavy snowfall hit onto land. The forcing for such bands is studied with a 2D numerical model set across an east–west sea channel at 60^oN (‘Gulf of Finland’), varying the basic geostrophic wind V _g. Without any V _g opposite coastal land breezes emerge with convergence. This results in a quasi-steady rising motion w _max ~ 7.5 cm/s at 600 m in the middle of the gulf, which can force a snow band. During weak V _g, the rising motion is reduced but least so for winds from 60^o to 80^o (~ENE), when modest alongshore bands could exist near the downstream (Estonian) coast. During V _g of 4–6 m/s from any direction, the land breezes and rising motions are reduced more effectively, so snow bands are not expected during moderate basic flow. In contrast, during a strong V _g of 20–25 m/s from 110^o to 120^o (~ESE) the land breeze perturbations are intense with w _max up to 15–18 cm/s. The induced alongshore bands of heavy snowfall are located in these cases at the sea but quite close to the downstream (Finnish) coast. They can suddenly make a landfall if the basic wind turns clockwise.     

Modeling monthly meteorological and agronomic frost days,based on minimum air temperature,in Center-Southern Brazil

Although Brazil is predominantly a tropical country, frosts are observed with relative high frequency in the Center-Southern states of the country, affecting mainly agriculture, forestry, and human activities. Therefore, information about the frost climatology is of high importance for planning of these activities. Based on that, the aims of the present study were to develop monthly meteorological (F _MET) and agronomic (F _AGR) frost day models, based on minimum shelter air temperature (T _MN), in order to characterize the temporal and spatial frost days variability in Center-Southern Brazil. Daily minimum air temperature data from 244 weather stations distributed across the study area were used, being 195 for developing the models and 49 for validating them. Multivariate regression models were obtained to estimate the monthly T _MN, once the frost day models were based on this variable. All T _MN regression models were statistically significant (p < 0.001), presenting adjusted R ² between 0.69 and 0.90. Center-Southern Brazil is mainly hit by frosts from mid-fall (April) to mid-spring (October). The period from November to March is considered as frost-free, being very rare a frost day within that period. Monthly F _MET and F _AGR presented significant sigmoidal relationships with T _MN (p < 0.0001), with adjusted R ² above of 0.82. The residuals of the frost day models were random, which means that the sigmoidal models performed quite well for interpreting the frost day variability throughout the study area. The highlands of Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, São Paulo, and Minas Gerais had in average more than 25 and 13 frosts per year, respectively, for F _MET and F _AGR. The F _MET and F _AGR maps developed in this study for Center-Southern Brazil is a useful tool for farmers, foresters, and researchers, since they contribute to reduce frost spatial and temporal uncertainty, helping in planning project for strategic purposes. Furthermore, the monthly F _MET and F _AGR maps for this Brazilian region are the first zoning of these variables for the country.     

Long-term variation of rainfall erosivity in Calabria (Southern Italy)

The changes in rainfall erosivity have been investigated using the rainfall erosivity factor (R) proposed for USLE by Wischmeier and Smith (R _W-S ) and some simplified indexes (the Fournier index modified by Arnoldus, F, a regional index spatial independent, R _Fr , and a regional index spatial dependent, R _Fs ) estimated by indirect approaches. The analysis has been carried out over 48 rainfall stations located in Calabria (Southern Italy) using data collected in the period 1936–2012 and divided in three sub-periods. The series of the erosivity indexes and of some precipitation variables have been analyzed for evidence of trends using standard methods. The simplified indexes suggested a general underestimation of the rainfall erosivity with respect to R _W-S . The mean underestimation ranged between 23 and 54 % for R _Fr and from 10 to 15 % for R _Fs . Both the sign and the magnitude of the trends were different for the different stations depending on the variable and sub-period considered. In general, the erosivity increased during the period 1936–1955 (1^st sub-period) and during the more recent sub-period (1992–2012, 3^rd sub-period), whereas it decreased during 1958–1977 (2^nd sub-period). The evidence of trends was generally higher for R _W-S than for R _Fr and R _Fs . Focusing on the most recent sub-period (3^rd sub-period), all the variables analyzed showed mainly increasing trends but with different magnitude. More particularly, R _W-S showed a mean increment of 29 %; F, R _Fr and R _Fs increased by 11, 15 and 18 %, respectively; the maximum intensity of 0.5-h precipitation increased by 5 %; and the annual precipitation increased by 22 %. Consequently, it remains difficult to define which precipitation variable plays the dominant role in the temporal variation of rainfall erosivity in the region. However, the overall results suggest that the indexes estimated by indirect procedures (F, R _Fr , and R _Fs ) should be used with caution for climate change analysis, despite they are used for practical purposes considering they are based on easily available information.     

热带气旋"蒲公英"两次登陆过程的灾害与结构特征

2004年7月1~3日,热带气旋“蒲公英”自生成到影响浙江沿海地区期间,不仅持续时间长、强度大,移动路径长、变化较复杂,而且创下了近3年来台湾风灾损失的最高纪录,同时也给浙江等沿海地区造成了一定的经济损失。作者主要利用卫星云图资料、NCEP再分析资料,从宏观上对热带气旋“蒲公英”两次登陆过程中的强度及其引发的风雨灾害进行了分析。结果表明,“蒲公英”登陆台湾期间,东亚环流形势呈典型的鞍形场分布,有利于处于两高之间热带气旋“蒲公英”的维持和北上转向。而在其登陆浙江沿海地区后,浙江沿海地区处于较强的偏东气流中,“蒲公英”中心处于高空槽后,气流下沉以及缺少水汽和能量充沛供应使得其减弱为热带风暴。无论是其登陆台湾还是浙江沿海地区,台风垂直方向始终呈深厚气旋性涡柱结构,但中心附近低层辐散,中层辐合,不利于中心附近的对流发展。相反,台风外围螺旋云带内不仅中低层辐合,高层辐散,辐合层较深厚,且存在高湿和强上升运动,因而有利于对流云团的发展。对流云团发展强度的不同使得“蒲公英”两次登陆期间引发的风雨灾害明显不同。