Modeling the Sudden Decrease in CH_4 Growth Rate in 1992

1.IntroductionMethane(CH#)isanimportantgreenhousegasinatmosphere.ThemainremovalprocessofCH4inatmosphereisreactedwithOHwhichisdeterminedbytheabundanceofmethane,carbonmonoxide(CO)andnitrousoxides(NO.)whoseemissionshaveincreasedgreatlybecauseofhumanacti...     

1992年大气甲烷增长速率异常 下降的模拟研究

应用初步建立的全球二维大气化学模式,模拟了甲烷、一氧化碳和OH自由基自工业革命以来的长期变化,对1992年大气中甲烷增长速率突然下降这一异常现象的可能原因如平流层O3下降,皮纳图博火山引起对流层温度下降、甲烷排放源减少等逐一进行了定量研究。研究还发现一氧化碳排放源的减少是另一重要影响因子,并进行了验证。结果表明,1992年甲烷增长速率急剧下降的主要原因来自甲烷和一氧化碳排放源的减少。     

150年来大气甲烷浓度的长期变化

应用作者建立的全球二维大气化学模式,采用2种CH4排放源的长期增长方案,同时考虑了CH4排放源以及对OH自由基浓度有重要影响的CO和NOx排放源的长期变化,模拟了CH4和OH从1840～2020年的长期变化趋势。考虑了世界人口增长的排放源方案可以更好地模拟CH4的长期变化,模拟结果表明,工业革命前的大气CH4浓度和年排放总量分别为760×10-9(V/V)和280×109kg,1991年大气CH4的浓度和年排放总量分别为1611.9×10-9(V/V)和533.9×109kg,对流层OH自由基数浓度从1840年的7.17×105分子数/cm3下降到1991年的5.79×105分子数/cm3,降低了19%。工业革命以来大气CH4的增长一方面是由于CH4排放源的增长,另一方面是由于大气OH浓度的下降。     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF ATMOSPHERIC METHANE TRENDS OVER THE LAST 150 YEARS

A global two-dimensional chemistry model is developed to study long-term trends of CH_4 sinceindustrial revolution.The sources of CH_4,CO and NO_x are parameterized as functions of latitudeand time.With two long-term emission scenarios,long-term trends of CH_4 are simulated.The resultshave a good agreement with observation from ice cores.The modeled CH_4 increased from 760 ppbvin 1840 to 1611.9 ppbv in 1991, while the modeled number concentration of tropospheric OHdecreased from 7.17×10~5 cm~(-3)in 1840 to 5.79×10~5 cm~(-3) in 1991.The increase of atmosphericCH_4 can be explained by the increase of emission of CH_4 and build-up because of decrease of OHradicals that remove CH_4 from the atmosphere.The model is also used to simulate the distribution of CH_4.Comparisons between the modelresults and observations show that the model can simulate both latitudinal distribution and seasonalvariation of CH_4 well.     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF ATMOSPHERIC METHANE TRENDS OVER THE LAST 150 YEARS*

A global two-dimensional chemistry model is developed to study long-term trends of CH₄ since industrial revolution.The sources of CH₄,CO and NO_x are parameterized as functions of latitude and time.With two long-term emission scenarios,long-term trends of CH₄ are simulated.The results have a good agreement with observation from ice cores.The modeled CH₄ increased from 760 ppbv in 1840 to 1611.9 ppbv in 1991, while the modeled number concentration of tropospheric OH decreased from 7.17×10⁵ cm^-3 in 1840 to 5.79×10⁵ cm^-3 in 1991.The increase of atmospheric CH₄ can be explained by the increase of emission of CH₄ and build-up because of decrease of OH radicals that remove CH₄ from the atmosphere.The model is also used to simulate the distribution of CH₄.Comparisons between the model results and observations show that the model can simulate both latitudinal distribution and seasonal variation of CH₄ well.     

大气中一氧化碳浓度变化的模拟研究

应用全球二维大气化学模式,模拟了CO、CH4和OH自由基等成分自工业革命到2020年的长期变化.模拟的全球CO平均体积分数在1840年、1991年和2020年分别为27×10-6、76×10-6和105×10-6.从1840到1991年,OH自由基数浓度从7.17×105个分子/cm3下降到5.79×105个分子/cm3,降低了19%.模拟的CH4长期变化与冰芯资料相符.模拟的20世纪80年代CO体积分数年增长率为1.03%～1.06%.大气中CO在20世纪90年代前是增长的,而到90年代初观测到CO体积分数突然下降.应用二维大气化学模式对此原因进行了模拟研究,结果表明,CO排放源的减少是CO体积分数下降的主要因子,平流层臭氧减少是另一个重要因子.尽管CO排放源的减少对大气CH4增长率的变化有较大影响,而CH4排放源减少对CO体积分数变化却几乎没有影响.     

冰晶增长对热量收支的影响

使用二维云分辨模式研究冰晶增长过程(云水到冰晶的冻结增长和通过水汽凝华冰晶到雪的增长)对热量收支的影响。采用4种冰晶增长参数化方案模拟了热带到中纬度地区的4个降水个例。研究发现:(1)高冰核浓度的ZENG方案和SHEN方案引起对流层中上层辐射加热增多,这与它们模拟的冰晶在对流层中上层增多有关。(2)高冰核浓度的ZENG方案导致模拟区域—平均的局地温度变化在对流层上层出现异常减小值,这与它在热带个例中导致垂直热量通量辐合减少和在中纬度个例中导致潜热加热减少有关。(3)尽管高冰核浓度的ZENG方案引起质量加权平均的辐射加热增多,但是它在热带个例中引起地表感热通量减少和在中纬度个例中引起潜热加热减少,最终导致4种参数化方案计算的模拟区域—质量加权平均的局地温度变化基本一致。     

全球二维大气化学模式和大气化学成分的数值模拟

建立了一个全球二维纬向平均化学模式,模式包括了从90°S到90°N,从地面到20 km高度的大气.模式中应用的流场来自根据加热率计算得到的剩余环流.模式化学部分包括34种大气成分、104个化学反应和光化学反应.其中,甲烷、一氧化碳和氮氧化物排放分为季节性和非季节性排放源,并将其参数化为时间和纬度的函数再应用到模式中去.按1990年的甲烷、一氧化碳和氮氧化物的的排放水平模拟得到了多种大气组成的分布,模拟结果与观测有较好的一致性.由于模式考虑了一氧化碳的季节变化,模拟得到的OH自由基分布更为合理.模式的建立为今后进一步研究大气微量成分的全球循环过程及其长期变化提供了有效的手段.     

自然湿地甲烷排放模拟研究——模型的灵敏度分析与应用

对甲烷湿地排放模型CH4MODwetland进行灵敏度分析表明,环境驱动因素——温度和地表水深是影响甲烷排放通量的主要因素,地表水深对季节性积水沼泽甲烷排放通量的灵敏度大于常年积水沼泽。模型对植物和土壤输入参数的灵敏度响应依次为Wmax(地上生物量最大值)FR(地下净初级生产力占植物总净初级生产力的比例)fV(植被类型系数)TAmax(植物从生长初期到最大地上生物量所需有效积温)ρ(容量),OM(土壤有积质含量)SAND(土壤砂粒含量)。以经验水位模型驱动CH4MODwetland,模拟三江平原毛果苔草和小叶章沼泽(1950年代～2000年代),以及若尔盖高原木里苔草和乌拉苔草沼泽(1960年代～2000年代)多年甲烷排放通量的变化。结果表明,年代际甲烷排放通量的变化主要受降水量的影响,但气候变暖使得降水量基本相同的年代甲烷排放通量增加:三江平原毛果苔草沼泽和小叶章沼泽(1980年代～2000年代比1950年代～1970年代模拟的甲烷排放通量分别增加了9.5%和8.3%;若尔盖高原乌拉苔草沼泽和木里苔草沼泽(1990年代～2000年代比1960年代～1970年代)分别增加了6.0%和5.5%。该结论能够为评估未来气候变化对中国湿地甲烷排放的影响提供依据。     

斜交型不稳定谱点分布侧半圆定理及其增长率上界的估计

本对斜交型扰动不稳定谱点的分布做了理论分析，得到了该谱点分布的半圆定理一该谱点分布在复一面上以原点为圆心以R0为半径的上半平面上，同时还对该不稳定增长率的上界作了估计。发现水平永度越小，模式顶越高则该估计值越大；垂直风切变的增大和纬度的增高对该增长率的增大有正贡献；当层结稳定度减小时，最大增长率随相对最大增长率得增大而减小。     

A determination of the CH4, NO x and CO2 emissions from the Prudhoe Bay,Alaska oil development

In this paper we quantify the CH₄, CO₂ and NO _x emissions during routine operations at a major oil and gas production facility, Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, using the concentrations of combustion by products measured at the NOAA-CMDL observatory at Barrow, Alaska and fuel consumption data from Prudhoe Bay. During the 1989 and 1990 measurement campaigns, 10 periods (called events) were unambiguously identified where surface winds carry the Prudhoe Bay emissions to Barrow (approximately 300 km). The events ranged in duration from 8–48 h and bring ambient air masses containing substantially elevated concentrations of CH₄, CO₂ and NO _y to Barrow. Using the slope of the observed CH₄ vs CO₂ concentrations during the events and the CO₂ emissions based on reported fuel consumption data, we calculate annual CH₄ emissions of (24+/–8)×10³ metric tons from the facility. In a similar manner, the annual NO _x emissions are calculated to be (12+/–4)×10³ metric tons, which is in agreement with an independently determined value. The calculated CH₄ emissions represent the amount released during routine operations including leakage. However this quantity would not include CH₄ released during non-routine operations, such as from venting or gas flaring.     

On the Response of the Global Subduction Rate to Global Warming in Coupled Climate Models简

The response of the global subduction rate to global warming was assessed based on a set of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） Fourth Assessment Report （AR4） models. It was found that the subduction rate of the global ocean could be significantly reduced under a warming climate, as compared to a simulation of the present-day climate. The reduction in the subduction volume was quantitatively estimated at about 40 Sv and was found to be= primarily induced by the decreasing of the lateral induction term due to a shallower winter mixed layer depth. The shrinking of the winter mixed layer would result from intensified stratification caused by increased heat input into the ocean under a warming climate. A reduction in subduction associated with the vertical pumping term was estimated at about 5 Sv. F~rther, in the Southern Ocean, a significant reduction in subduction was estimated at around 24 Sv, indicating a substantial contribution to the weakening of global subduction.     

1992—2012年东北水稻生育期变化分析

生产实践中水稻生育期变化是气候条件和品种更新等因素共同作用的结果。利用东北地区13个农业气象站点1992—2012年水稻试验观测资料,分析水稻生育期的变化及其与东北变暖趋势、水稻品种调整的关系。结果表明：水稻生长季平均气温和≥10℃积温在1992—2001年呈显著增加趋势,水稻生长季积温的差别最大可达500℃?d,从2002年开始升温趋势减缓,并略有下降。相应地,2002—2012年与1992—2001年的物候期基本上呈现相反的变化特征,其中抽穗期、乳熟期、成熟期在1992—2001年明显提前,分别提前了3.1、2.9、4.5 d/10a,移栽期、分蘖期、成熟期则在2002—2012年呈现出明显的推迟趋势,分别推迟了4.6、4.7、2.0 d/10a;生育期的变化受多种因素影响,但播种-移栽期、乳熟-成熟期在1992—2001年分别缩短了0.7、1.6 d/10a,而在2002—2012年则分别延长了2.9、2.8 d/10a;总的来说,1992—2012年水稻全生育期整体延长了3.7 d/10a,其主要归因于营养生长期的延长。在试验资料比较完整的12个站点所做的分析表明,在东北水稻种植的生产实践中,不断地通过品种调整适应气候条件的改变,多数站点水稻实际生育期与品种审定生育日数差别较小,说明其品种的选择能够与当年的气候条件较好地匹配,充分利用了当地的气候资源。延吉站、梅河口站、通化站随着气候的持续波动又显示出水稻实际生育期与品种审定生育日数偏差增大的趋势,宁安站和前郭尔罗斯站的水稻种植品种的审定生育日数几乎没有改变。因此,迫切需要对东北气候变化的科学事实和水稻种植适应气候变化的生产实践进行系统的总结,为东北水稻生产适应气候变化提供科学支撑。     

Formulation and Evaluation of IMS, an Interactive Three-Dimensional Tropospheric Chemical Transport Model 2. Model Chemistry and Comparison of Modelled CH4, CO, and O3 with Surface Measurements

In part two of this series of papers on the IMS model, we present the chemistry reaction mechanism usedand compare modelled CH₄, CO, and O₃ witha dataset of annual surface measurements. The modelled monthly and 24-hour mean tropospheric OH concentrationsrange between 5–22 × 10⁵ moleculescm^–3, indicating an annualaveraged OH concentration of about 10 × 10⁵ moleculescm^–3. This valueis close to the estimated 9.7 ± 0.6 × 10⁵ moleculescm^–3 calculated fromthe reaction of CH₃CCl₃ with OH radicals.Comparison with CH₄ generally shows good agreementbetween model and measurements, except for the site at Barrow where modelledwetland emission in the summer could be a factor 3 too high.For CO, the pronounced seasonality shown in the measurements is generally reproduced by the model; however, the modelled concentrations are lower thanthe measurements. This discrepancy may due to lower the CO emission,especially from biomass burning,used in the model compared with other studies.For O₃, good agreement between the model and measurements is seenat locations which are away from industrial regions. The maximum discrepancies between modelled results and measurementsat tropical and remote marine sites is about 5–10 ppbv,while the discrepancies canexceed 30 ppbv in the industrial regions.Comparisons in rural areas at European and American continental sites arehighly influenced by the local photochemicalproduction, which is difficult to model with a coarse global CTM.The very large variations of O₃ at these locations vary from about15–25 ppbv in Januaryto 55–65 ppbv in July–August. The observed annual O₃amplitude isabout 40 ppbv compared with about 20 ppbv in the model. An overall comparison of modelled O₃ with measurements shows thatthe O₃seasonal surface cycle is generally governed bythe relative importance of two key mechanisms that drivea springtime ozone maximum and asummertime ozone maximum.     

陆地生态系统固碳速率立体监测方法:进展与挑战

全球CO₂浓度增加造成的全球变暖已成为人类亟需解决的问题,陆地生态系统在过去几十年一直扮演着重要的碳汇角色,吸收了30％左右的人类活动排放CO₂。本文调研分析了陆地生态系统固碳速率空间估算方法,包括样地调查、通量监测、模型模拟、遥感估算等,梳理了各种估算方法的研究现状与进展。样地调查、通量观测等方法可以提供点尺度的固碳速率直接测量信息,但存在观测样本有限、空间代表性不足等问题。模型模拟方法可以从机理的角度描述陆地碳、水、能量循环,模拟预测陆地生态系统固碳速率的状态和变化。然而,在模型建立过程中,抽象和简化会引入结构与假设的不确定性,以及模型驱动数据引入的不确定性等问题是碳循环模型模拟方法面临的重大挑战。卫星遥感具有全球覆盖、分辨率精细、时间序列观测等优点,结合机器学习方法,为地球大数据驱动的全球碳源汇估算提供了新的研究范式。但是,当前各种固碳速率的监测方法还没有满足高度时空异质性的陆地生态系统固碳量监测需求,未来需要整合地面观测、模型模拟和卫星遥感等多种技术手段,提供区域和全球尺度的陆地生态系统碳汇精确估算方法体系和科学数据产品。     

Analysis on concentration and source rate of precursor vapors participating in particle formation and growth at xinken in the Pearl River Delta of China

Concentration and source rate of precursor vapors participating in particle formation and subsequent growth were investigated during the Pearl River Delta intensive campaign （PRD2004, October 2004） in southeastern China. Four new particle formation event days and a typical non-event day were selected for our analysis. Atmospheric sulphuric acid, the important precursor vapor in nucleation and growth, were simulated with a pseudo steady-state model based on the measurements of SO2, NOx, 03, CO, non-methane hydrocarbon （NMHC） and ambient particle number concentrations as well as modeled photolysis frequencies obtained from measurements. The maximum midday sulphuric acid concentrations vary from 4.53 × 10^7 to 2.17 × 10^8 molecules cm^-3, the corresponding source rate via reaction of OH and SO2 range between 2.37 × 10^6 and 1.16 × 10^7 molecules cm^-3 s^-1. Nucleation mode growth rate was derived from size spectral evolution during the events to be 6.8-13.8 nm h^-1. Based on the growth rate, concentration of the vapors participating in subsequent growth were estimated to vary from 1.32 × 10^8 to 2.80 × 10^8 molecules cm^-3 with corresponding source rate between 7.26 × 10^6 and 1.64 × 10^7 molecules cm^-3 s^-1. Our results show the degree of pollution is larger in PRD. Sulphuric acid concentrations are fairly high and have a close correlation with new particle formation events. Budget analysis shows that sulphuric acid alone is not enough for required growth; other nonvolatile vapors are needed. However, sulphuric acid plays an important role in growth; the contribution of sulphuric acid to growth in PRD is 12.4%-65.2%.     

基于模式分析一次沙尘暴过程中沙尘表面非均相化学过程对中国地区污染物浓度的影响

利用戈达德对地观测系统（GEOS）提供的再分析气象场GEOS-5驱动的GEOS-Chem模式,模拟中国地区2009年4月22~29日沙尘暴期间沙尘气溶胶表面非均相化学过程对我国污染物的影响。模拟结果表明,沙尘暴期间,全国平均沙尘硝酸盐和沙尘硫酸盐浓度分别为0.2 μg m-3和0.4 μg m-3,占总硝酸盐（非沙尘硝酸盐与沙尘硝酸盐之和）和总硫酸盐（非沙尘硫酸盐与沙尘硫酸盐之和）的24%和10%。我国西部地区沙尘硝酸盐占比（ > 80%）要大于其他地区,而西部地区的沙尘硫酸盐占比则要小于下游地区。考虑非均相化学反应后,沙尘暴期间,全国平均的二氧化硫（SO₂）、硝酸（HNO₃）、臭氧（O₃）、非沙尘硫酸盐、总硫酸盐、非沙尘硝酸盐、总硝酸盐、NH₃、总铵盐浓度变化量分别为-7%、-15%、-2%、-8%、3%、-2%、14%、21%、-5%。     

2005年渤海海冰冰厚热力增长特征实验的个例研究

认识渤海海冰冰厚热力增长特征,是开发利用海冰资源的理论基础.本文通过2005年1月12日-27日在辽东湾鲅鱼圈和渤海湾黄骅海冰现场实验个例研究得出:鲅鱼圈的累积冰厚平均日增量1.33 em/d,平均冰厚日变化为3 cm;黄骅的累计冰厚平均日增量为0.54 cm/d,平均冰厚变化22.3 cm;冰厚从0 cm增长到10 cm所需的时间为鲅鱼圈5 d左右,黄骅10 d左右;冰厚日变化与日平均气温和日平均冰温与之间相关性显著,但冰厚对气温和冰温降低的反应有一定的滞后性;当环境温度持续下降时,累积冰厚与累积气温之间有显著的正相关,当环境温度上升时,累积冰厚与累积气温之间相关性逆转.