华北平原下垫面荒漠化和绿化对气候的影响

从大气热力学能量方程,水汽守恒方程以及降水与大气水汽含量和相对湿度的经验关系出发,本文假定大尺度环流不受地表下垫面变化的影响,不考虑大气辐射吸收与水汽和温度的反馈作用,对大气和地表能量过程作参数化处理,建立了一个反映区域年平均温度和降水的变化与地表反射率和波恩比变化之间的关系。计算分析表明,对于线性尺度为550km的华北平原来说,如果地表下垫面从目前状态变成沙漠的话,年平均温度将增加2.14°C,年降水量将减少536.1mm。如果华北平原全部绿化、年平均温度变化不大,年降水量可增加21.2mm。     

中国东南部植被NPP的时空格局变化及其与气候的关系研究

基于2001~2010年MOD17A3年均NPP数据和气象站点气温、降水资料,利用GIS空间分析技术和数理统计方法研究中国东南部植被NPP的时空格局、动态变化及与气候要素的关系。结果表明,中国东南部植被年均NPP总体上呈现从南到北、由东至西逐渐减少的分布,不同植被类型的NPP存在明显差异,以常绿阔叶林最高,落叶针叶林最低。2001~2010年间,植被NPP整体上略有减少。空间上植被NPP在南部地区明显减少,而在北部地区明显增加。植被NPP与降水和气温的相关性均表现出明显的地域差异。     

应用遥感数据研究中国植被生态系统与气候的关系

应用1982-1994年NOAA/AVHRR的归一化植被指数（NDVI）资料和587个气象台站的数据对我国不同类型植被生态系统和气候的关系进行研究，首先将我国的植被类型划分为21类，在此基础上分别研究了不同时间尺度下我国不同区域，不同植被类型和气候的关系。结果表明：在多年平均状态下，植被生态系统NDVI水平主要受水分条件的影响；年内变化上，温度对植被生态系统季相变化化起着比降水略大的作用，年降水量造成了植被季相响应的差异，在年际变化上，分别研究了4个季节和整个生长期尺度上的关系，一般情形为温度和降水对植被的年际波动起着大致相反的作用，不同植被类型在不同的生长时期（季节）对气候的变化响应方式也不同，发现在植被的生长期，我国南方和北方的植被生态系统对温度和降水的响应方式相反；同时存在2个植被-气候敏感区，分别为我国北方的典型草原到森林的过渡区和云南中部部分区域。     

近10年蒙古高原植被覆盖变化及其对气候的季节响应

利用2001~2010年间MODIS NDVI数据、同期气象数据和MODIS土地覆盖分类产品,探讨蒙古高原植被覆盖变化趋势及其对气温和降水量的季节响应特征。结果表明,10 a来,蒙古高原植被覆盖度呈增加趋势和呈下降趋势的面积基本持平;春季和夏季植被覆盖度呈下降趋势,而秋季呈上升趋势,降水量是最主要的影响因子;在秋季5种植被类型均呈增加趋势,而在春季和夏季不同植被类型的增减趋势因植被类型而异。     

基于CMIP6气候模式的华北平原极端气温指数评估和预测

随着全球气候变暖,极端气候事件频发,对自然生态系统、社会经济及人类生产生活带来重要影响.预估未来气候情景下极端气候事件的发生有助于准确评估气候变化的影响程度.该文基于华北平原54个气象站的气候观测资料及CM IP6中20个全球气候模式(GCM)在4个气候情景下的未来气候预测数据,计算9种代表性极端气温指数,利用独立权重均值法(IWM)对多GCM s预测结果进行集合平均,旨在揭示华北平原历史(1971-2010年)和未来(2061-2100年)极端气温指数的时空变化.结果表明:基于IW M方法获得的多模式集合平均值与观测值的均方根误差(RMSE)和相对标准偏差(RSD)均低于算术平均法,能更好地反演历史极端气温指数的变化趋势;预测未来极端高温指数呈显著上升趋势,而极端低温指数将显著降低;极端气温指数(D T R除外)在历史和未来时期均存在明显的空间差异,其中高辐射强迫情景(SSP585)下的极端气温指数变幅最大,空间差异最显著.     

华北平原7种人工牧草不同气候条件下的耗水规律

本文主要目的是研究华北平原不同气候条件下7种人工牧草的耗水规律。试验于2005-2009年在中国科学院禹城综合试验站进行,牧草品种有一年生牧草黑麦（Secale cereale L.）、小黑麦（× Triticosecale Wittmack）、高丹草（Sorghum biolor × Sorghum Sudanense c.v.）、青饲玉米（Zea mays L.）和籽粒苋（Amaranthus paniculatus L.）,多年生牧草苜蓿（Medicago sativa L.） 和串叶松香草（Silphium perfoliatum L.）。结果显示,苜蓿的Kc值为1.08,其他牧草在0.79-0.94。不同气候条件下的Kc值大小规律为,越年生牧草：湿润〉干旱〉平常;一年生牧草：干旱〉平常〉湿润;多年生牧草：平常〉干旱〉湿润。本文建议青饲玉米和高丹草为夏季播牧草的优选牧草,籽粒苋对气候变化最敏感,干旱和平常季节会减产一半以上。黑麦和小黑麦蒸是冬闲田种植的优选牧草,小黑麦因为耗水量较小,优于黑麦。苜蓿在干旱季节的表现优于串叶松香草,但当降雨达592.9mm以上反而会引起减产。该研究的结果能为牧草在华北平原的种植布局提供科学依据。     

自然干燥度和实际干燥度及其在气候工作中的应用

本文提出了“自然干燥度”和“实际干燥度”的概念,并将两者应用于甘肃黄土高原和河西走廓绿洲的气候植被类型划分,结果表明:后者确定的上述两个地区的气候植被带,与各自的自然景观大致相符合。     

近30年来藏北高原湖泊变化对气候波动的响应

According to the analysis of the climate materials including the topographic map in 1975, the TM and CBERS satellite remote sensing materials from the 1980s to 2005 as well as the air temperature, precipitation, evaporation rate, maximum depth of snow and the biggest depth of frozen soil in the past 45 years, the water level area of four lakes at the southeast of Nagqu, Tibet including Bam Co, Pung Co, Dung Co and Nuripung Co show a distinct trend of expansion in the past 30 years. In 2005, the water level area of the above four lakes increased by 48.2 km², 38.2 km², 19.8 km² and 26.0 km² respectively compared to 1975, with the respective increase rate of 25.6%, 28.2%, 16.2% and 37.6%. That is closely related to the warming and humidified climate change in the recent years such as rise of the air temperature, increase of the precipitation, decrease of the evaporation rate and permafrost degradation. Foundation: National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40761005 Author: Bian Duo (1966–), Professor, specialized in application of remote sensing and GIS on environment.     

藏西南高原植被覆盖时空变化及其与气候因素和人类活动的关系

研究基于MODIS-NDVI数据和气象数据,利用趋势分析、相关分析及残差分析等方法,分析了2000―2020年藏西南高原植被NDVI在不同时段的时空变化特征及气候因素和人类活动对植被NDVI的影响,结果表明：近20 a来藏西南高原植被NDVI呈增加趋势,不同时段植被NDVI增长速率存在显著差异,主要表现为秋季>生长季>夏季>全年>春季>冬季;不同时段植被NDVI的分布格局虽存在差异,但高原东部植被覆盖度明显高于西部地区;高原大部分区域植被状态基本稳定,局部明显改善,部分区域有所退化;年际尺度上,气温和降水的增加导致植被NDVI升高,季节尺度上,春季、秋季和冬季气温升高导致植被NDVI升高,降水的增加导致植被NDVI下降,夏季和生长季气温升高导致植被NDVI下降,降水升高导致植被NDVI增加;人类活动对高原大部分区域呈正面影响,局部地区呈负面影响,集中分布在半农半牧和纯牧业县区。     

1981-2010 年气候变化对青藏高原实际蒸散的影响

基于1981-2010 年青藏高原80 个气象台站观测数据, 通过改进的LPJ 动态植被模型, 模拟并分析了青藏高原实际蒸散及其与降水的平衡关系(P-E) 的时空变化。研究结果表明, 在过去三十年来青藏高原气候呈现以变暖为主要特征的背景下, 降水量整体略有增加, 潜在蒸散呈减少趋势, 特别是2000 年以前减少趋势显著;青藏高原大部分地区实际蒸散呈增加趋势, P-E的变化趋势呈西北增加-东南减少的空间格局。大气水分蒸散发能力降低理论上会导致实际蒸散减少, 而青藏高原大部分地区实际蒸散增加, 主要影响因素是降水增加, 实际蒸散呈增加(减少) 趋势的区域中86% (73%) 的降水增加(减少)。     

Contributions of climate change and human activities to ET and GPP trends over North China Plain from 2000 to 2014

Quantifying the contributions of climate change and human activities to ecosystem evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP) changes is important for adaptation assessment and sustainable development. Spatiotemporal patterns of ET and GPP were estimated from 2000 to 2014 over North China Plain (NCP) with a physical and remote sensing-based model. The contributions of climate change and human activities to ET and GPP trends were separated and quantified by the first difference de-trending method and multivariate regression. Results showed that annual ET and GPP increased weakly, with climate change and human activities contributing 0.188 mm yr–2 and 0.466 mm yr^–2 to ET trend of 0.654 mm yr^–2, and–1.321 g C m^–2 yr^–2 and 7.542 g C m^–2 yr^–2 to GPP trend of 6.221 g C m^–2 yr^–2, respectively. In cropland, the increasing trends mainly occurred in wheat growing stage; the contributions of climate change to wheat and maize were both negative. Precipitation and sunshine duration were the major climatic factors regulating ET and GPP trends. It is concluded that human activities are the main drivers to the long term tendencies of water consumption and gross primary productivity in the NCP.     

华北平原农业适应气候变化技术集成创新体系

适应气候变化技术的集成创新是应对气候变化的必要途径.以我国重要的商品粮生产基地--华北平原为例,分析了气候变化对华北平原农业的影响,提出华北平原农业适应气候变化的技术集成创新体系,包括：单一目标的农业适应技术集成体系,多目标综合的农业适应技术集成体系,多部门综合的农业适应技术集成体系和因地制宜的分区农业适应技术集成体系等;讨论了适应的不确定性、适应需求的差异性以及适应技术集成创新能力.最后指出,我国应对气候变化亟需开展不同领域适应气候变化技术的集成创新研究,构建不同部门适应气候变化技术的集成创新体系,使各种单项和分散的技术成果得到集成,从而建立完善的适应气候变化技术的集成创新机制.     

华北平原降水的长期趋势分析(英文)

The North China Plain (NCP) is the most important food grain producing area in China and has suffered from serious water shortages. To capture variation water availability, it is necessary to have an analysis of changing trends in precipitation. This study, based on daily precipitation data from 47 representative stations in NCP records passed the homogeneity test, analyzed the trend and amplitude of variation in monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation, annual maximum continuous no-rain days, annual rain days, rainfall intensity, and rainfall extremes from 1960 to 2007, using the MannKendall (M-K) test and Sen’s slope estimator. It was found that monthly precipitation in winter had a significant increasing trend in most parts, while monthly precipitation in July to September showed a decreasing trend in some parts of NCP. No significant changing trend was found for the annual, dry and wet season precipitation and rainfall extremes in the majority of NCP.A significant decreasing trend was detected for the maximum no-rain duration and annual rain days in the major part of NCP. It was concluded that the changing trend of precipitation in NCP had an apparent seasonal and regional pattern, i.e., precipitation showed an obvious increasing trend in winter, but a decreasing trend in the rainy season (July to September), and the changing trend was more apparent in the northern part than in the southern and middle parts. This implies that with global warming, seasonal variation of precipitation in NCP tends to decline with an increasing of precipitation in winter season, and a decreasing in rainy season, particularly in the sub-humid northern part.     

中国西北地区蒸发散量计算的遥感研究

自然陆面区域蒸发散的教育处是一个复杂的问题，在利用遥感资料求取地表特征参数的基础上，首先建立了2种极端条件下（裸露地表和全植被覆盖）的裸土蒸发和全植被覆盖蒸散计算模型，然后结合植被覆盖度给出非均匀陆面条件下的区域蒸发散计算方法，实测资料验算表明该模型具有较高的计算精度，最后利用该模型对我国西北5省区的蒸发散量进行了计算，并对该研究区蒸发散的特点进行了分析。     

Analysis on water supply and demand of North China Plain

IntroductionIn terms of water resources supply and demand analysis, the North China Plan which is the main waterreceiving area of the proposed southjnorth water transfer project, is often considered as a whole region.Adrinistrahvely, the region includes mbocipalihes of Beding and Tianjin, most pal'ts of provinces ofHebei (herealler known as Hebei), Henan olereafter known as Henan) and Shandong (herealler known asShandong) able l). The Nortll China Plain covers an area of 191 250 klllZ wi…     

华北平原浅层地下水水位动态变化

利用中日合作项目在华北平原设置的自动监测设备KADEC-MIZU Ⅱ型地下水水位自计仪,对2004-2006年39处浅层地下水水位监测的结果,结合区域影响地下水宏观动态类型的主要因素,如地形地貌、地下水埋深、地下水开采程度、地下水漏斗以及河流湖泊等,叠加各影响因素分区图得到地下水动态影响因素综合分区图,结合观测孔地下水水位体现的动态特征,将华北平原地下水观测点分为山前开采型、山前侧向补给-径流-开采型、中部河道带补给-开采型、中部地下水浅埋区降水入渗-蒸发型动态、黄河影响带侧向补给-蒸发型动态和滨海平原区入渗-蒸发型6大地下水动态类型。在此基础上阐明了大区域范围内不同类型地下水水位年内及多年动态变化的特点,比较了不同类型区地下水动态所受影响因素的不同。     

华北平原地下水动态变化

The groundwater level of 39 observation wells including 35 unconfined wells and 4 confined wells from 2004 to 2006 in North China Plain (NCP) was monitored using automatic groundwater monitoring data loggers KADEC-MIZU II of Japan. The automatic groundwater sensors were installed for the corporation project between China and Japan. Combined with the monitoring results from 2004 to 2006 with the major factors affecting the dynamic patterns of groundwater, such as topography and landform, depth of groundwater level, exploitation or discharge extent, rivers and lakes, the dynamic regions of NCP groundwater were gotten. According to the dynamic features of groundwater in NCP, six dynamic patterns of groundwater level were identified, including discharge pattern in the piedmont plain, lateral recharge-runoff-discharge pattern in the piedmont plain, recharge-discharge pattern in the central channel zone, precipitation infiltration-evaporation pattern in the shallow groundwater region of the central plain, lateral recharge-evaporation pattern in the recharge-affected area along the Yellow River and infiltration-discharge-evaporation pattern in the littoral plain. Based on this, the groundwater fluctuation features of various dynamic patterns were interpreted and the influencing factors of different dynamic patterns were compared. Foundation: National Natural Sciences Foundation of China, No.40671034; No.40830636 Author: Wang Shiqin (1981–), Ph.D., specialized in hydrology and water resources, water cycle of watershed.     

Shallow groundwater dynamics in North China Plain

The groundwater level of 39 observation wells including 35 unconfined wells and 4 confined wells from 2004 to 2006 in North China Plain (NCP) was monitored using automatic groundwater monitoring data loggers KADEC-MIZU II of Japan. The automatic groundwater sensors were installed for the corporation project between China and Japan. Combined with the monitoring results from 2004 to 2006 with the major factors affecting the dynamic patterns of groundwater, such as topography and landform, depth of groundwater level, exploitation or discharge extent, rivers and lakes, the dynamic regions of NCP groundwater were gotten. According to the dynamic features of groundwater in NCP, six dynamic patterns of groundwater level were identified, including discharge pattern in the piedmont plain, lateral recharge– runoff–discharge pattern in the piedmont plain, recharge–discharge pattern in the central channel zone, precipitation infiltration–evaporation pattern in the shallow groundwater region of the central plain, lateral recharge–evaporation pattern in the recharge-affected area along the Yellow River and infiltration–discharge–evaporation pattern in the littoral plain. Based on this, the groundwater fluctuation features of various dynamic patterns were interpreted and the influencing factors of different dynamic patterns were compared.     

华北平原中部晚上新世以来沉积物碳氧同位素特征及其古环境意义

利用华北平原中部衡水水文地质科研深孔的岩芯,对平原区古土壤钙结核层碳氧同位素组分的古气候环境意义及相关气候指标的定量转换进行探讨,发现碳氧同位素对古气候变化具有较好的响应关系:3.5MaB.P.以来华北平原古气候逐渐由湿润转向干旱,早更新世由多个干湿冷暖旋回组成,晚期气候由暖迅速转凉;中更新世气候略温和,由3个冷干-暖湿旋回组成;晚更新世气候变化趋势为湿润-干燥-湿润,总体上呈现增温趋势。进入全新世后,δ13C平均值(-5)较低,属于相对湿润期;δ18 O平均值(-9.5)较低,属于相对寒冷期。应用相关公式可以定量恢复古温度变化,但平原区古土壤层受后期地下水作用的影响较大,如何消除这一影响还需更多数据支持。     

华北平原地貌区划新见

在埋深20~15 m(山前平原)或10~8 m(中部和滨海平原)以上的三维空间,将地貌形成演化的同一时段,具有同一结构、构造特征的组成物质和形态-成因上有相互联系的地貌类型的组合体视为一个地质-地貌体。基于这一观点,将冲积扇从传统地貌区划中的"山前倾斜平原区"中分离出来,与冲积泛滥平原合并,称作"中部冲积扇-冲积泛滥平原区",更符合国民经济合理布局的需要。