Earth impact probability of the Asteroid (25143) Itokawa to be sampled by the spacecraft Hayabusa

The Japanese spacecraft Hayabusa is planed to reach the Asteroid Itokawa in September 2005, and to bring back some samples of its surface to Earth in 2007. We have studied the future possible evolution of this asteroid by integrating numerically over 100 Myr a set of 39 initially indistinguishable orbits (clones), obtained either by small variations of the nominal initial conditions, or by using different computers (introducing different round-off errors). The results indicate that an Earth impact of this 500-m-size asteroid is likely within a million years, which is only a factor of four larger than the average impact frequency of asteroids of this size. The mission Hayabusa may thus sample a good candidate for being among the next 500-m-size Earth impactors.     

Martian cratering II: Asteroid impact history

This paper considers the extent to which Martian craters can be explained by considering asteroidal impact. Sections I, II, and III of this paper derive the diameter distribution of hypothetical asteroidal craters on Mars from recent Palomar-Leiden asteroid statistics and show that the observed Martian craters correspond to a bombardment by roughly 100 times the present number of Mars-crossing asteroids. Section IV discusses the early bombardment history of Mars, based on the capture theory of Öpik and probable orbital parameters of early planetesimals. These results show that the visible craters and surface of Mars should not be identified with the initial, accreted surface. A backward extrapolation of the impact rates based on surviving Mars-crossing asteroids can account for the majority of Mars craters over an interval of several aeons, indicating that we see back in time no further than part-way into a period of intense bombardment. An early period of erosion and deposition is thus suggested. Section V presents a comparison with results and terminology of other authors.     

Simulations of impact ejecta and regolith accumulation on Asteroid Eros

We have carried out a set of Monte Carlo simulations of the placement of impact ejecta on Asteroid 433 Eros, with the aim of understanding the distribution and accumulation of regolith. The simulations consisted of two stages: (1) random distribution of primary impact sites derived from a uniform isotropic flux of impactors, and (2) integration of the orbits of test particle ejecta launched from primary impact points until their re-impact or escape. We integrated the orbits of a large number of test particles (typically 10⁶ per individual case). For those particles that did not escape we collected the location of their re-impact points to build up a distribution on the asteroid surface. We find that secondary impact density is mostly controlled by the overall topography of the asteroid. A gray-scale image of the density of secondary ejecta impact points looks, in general, like a reduced-scale negative of the topography of the asteroid's surface. In other words, regolith migration tends to fill in the topography of Eros over time, whereas topographic highs are denuded of free material. Thus, the irregular shape of Eros is not a steady-state configuration, but the result of larger stochastic events.     

Measurement requirements for a Near-Earth Asteroid impact mitigation demonstration mission

A concept for an Impact Mitigation Preparation Mission, called Don Quijote, is to send two spacecrafts to a Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA): an Orbiter and an Impactor. The Impactor collides with the asteroid while the Orbiter measures the resulting change in the asteroid's orbit, by means of a Radio Science Experiment (RSE) carried out before and after the impact. Three parallel Phase A studies on Don Quijote were carried out for the European Space Agency: the research presented here reflects the outcomes of the study by QinetiQ. We discuss the mission objectives with regard to the prioritisation of payload instruments, with emphasis on the interpretation of the impact. The Radio Science Experiment is described and it is examined how solar radiation pressure may increase the uncertainty in measuring the orbit of the target asteroid. It is determined that to measure the change in orbit accurately a thermal IR spectrometer is mandatory, to measure the Yarkovsky effect. The advantages of having a laser altimeter are discussed. The advantages of a dedicated wide-angle impact camera are discussed and the field-of-view is initially sized through a simple model of the impact.     

Asteroid Apophis: Evaluating the impact hazards of such bodies

Soon after the discovery of asteroid 99942 Apophis, it was classified as a potentially hazardous object with a high probability of an impact on the Earth in 2029. Although subsequent observations have substantially reduced the probability of a collision, it has not been ruled out; moreover, similar-sized asteroids in orbits intersecting the Earth’s orbit may well be discovered in the near future. We conduct a numerical simulation of an atmospheric passage and an impact on the Earth’s surface of a stony cosmic body with a diameter of 300 m and kinetic energy of about 1000 Mt, which roughly corresponds to the parameters of the asteroid Apophis, at atmospheric entry angles of 90° (vertical stroke), 45°, and 30°. The simulation is performed by solving three-dimensional equations of hydrodynamics and radiative transfer equations in the approximations of radiative heat conduction and volume emission. The following hazards are considered: an air shock wave, ejecta from the crater, thermal radiation, and ionospheric disturbances. Our calculations of the overpressure and wind speed on the Earth’s surface show that the zone of destruction of the weakest structures can be as large as 700–1000 km in diameter; a decrease in the flight path angle to the surface leads to a marked increase in the area affected by the shock wave. The ionospheric disturbances are global in nature and continue for hours: at distances of several thousand kilometers at altitudes of more than 100 km, air density disturbances are tens of percent and the vertical and horizontal velocity components reach hundreds of meters per second. The impact of radiation on objects on the Earth’s surface is estimated by solving the equation of radiative transfer along rays passing through a luminous area. In clear weather, the size of the zone where thermal heating may ignite wood can be as large as 200 km, and the zone of individual fire outbreaks associated with the ignition of flammable materials can be twice as large. In the 100-km central area, which is characterized by very strong thermal damage, there is ignition of structures, roofs, clothes, etc. The human hazardous area increases with the decrease in the trajectory angle, and people may experience thermal effects at distances of up to 250–400 km from the crater.     

Detection of Asteroid Impact Orbits Using Conditional Minimization of the Distance to the Earth

Solar System Research - A method has been developed for detecting impact orbits of asteroids in the confidence ellipsoid of the initial parameters of motion. The method consists in conditionally...     

小行星网络数据库发展评述

评述了近年来国际上与小行星相关的网络数据库的发展概况和意义。概要介绍了小行星轨道数据库、小行星测光数据库、小行星红外数据库、近地小行星数据库和小行星综合数据库的开发成果和应用价值，以及基于小行星数据库的历表服务；展望了小行星网络数据库的发展趋势。     

Abrupt alteration of Asteroid 2004 MN4's spin state during its 2029 Earth flyby

We predict that when Asteroid 2004 MN4 passes 5.6±1.4 Earth radii from Earth's center on April 13, 2029, terrestrial torques during the flyby will alter its spin state in a dramatic manner that will be observable using groundbased telescopes. Although the asteroid will most likely not undergo catastrophic disruption, it may be subject to localized failure across its surface and interior, providing a unique opportunity to measure otherwise inaccessible mechanical properties of an asteroid.     

On the Trajectories of Asteroid Encounters with the Earth for 2015 RN35 and Apophis

A great number of probable encounters of asteroid 2015 RN35 with the Earth have been found; many of them were unknown earlier. The main characteristics and properties of the corresponding trajectories have been obtained. Probable impacts of the asteroid Apophis with the Earth are also discussed. The results suggest that the multitudes of potential impacts of hazardous asteroids with the Earth can be and must be analyzed in more detail. Such an analysis is required to plan and implement the measures on preventing the asteroid impact hazard.     

The shape distribution of boulders on Asteroid 25143 Itokawa: Comparison with fragments from impact experiments

Laboratory impact experiments have found that the shape of fragments over a broad size range is distributed around the mean value of the axial ratio 2:√2:1, which is independent of a wide range of experimental conditions. We report the shape statistics of boulders with size of 0.1-30 m on the surface of Asteroid 25143 Itokawa based on high-resolution images obtained by the Hayabusa spacecraft in order to investigate whether their shape distribution is similar to the distribution obtained for fragments (smaller than 0.1 m) in laboratory impact experiments. We also investigated the shapes of boulders with size of 0.1-150 m on Asteroid 433 Eros using a few arbitrary selected images by the NEAR spacecraft, in order to compare those with the shapes on Asteroid Itokawa. In addition, the shapes of small- and fast-rotating asteroids (diameter <200 m and rotation period <1 h), which are natural fragments from past impact events among asteroids, were inferred from archived light curve data taken by ground-based telescopes. The results show that the shape distributions of laboratory fragments are similar to those of the boulders on Eros and of the small- and fast-rotating asteroids, but are different from those on Itokawa. However, we propose that the apparent difference between the boulders of Itokawa and the laboratory fragments is due to the migration of boulders. Therefore, we suggest that the shape distributions of the boulders ranging from 0.1 to 150 m in size and the small- and fast-rotating asteroids are similar to those obtained for the fragments generated in laboratory impact experiments.     

On the Possibility of Deflecting an Asteroid from Collision with the Earth Using the Kinetic Method

The possibilities of deflecting an asteroid from its collision course with the Earth by changing its velocity with an impact are considered. Using the asteroid Apophis as an example, the time dependence of the positions and sizes of the keyholes leading to collision is studied. It has been found that the possibility of deflecting this asteroid usually exists, and the impact can be accomplished in principle, given the capabilities of modern space technology. A change in the velocity should be performed before the encounter of 2029 in order to use the gravitational maneuver effect. The possible accuracy of determining Apophis’ orbit and the keyholes that lead to collision and are associated with the resonance returns are considered.     

Short-term Hazardous Asteroid

In order to clarify the early warning and response requirements of near-Earth asteroids impact, the concept of “short-term hazardous asteroids” is proposed, that is, near-Earth asteroids with an equivalent diameter greater than 10 meters that may pose a threat to the Earth in the next 100 years. Based on the 756 short-term hazardous asteroids that have been discovered so far, the orbital distribution characteristics of short-term hazardous asteroids are analyzed, and the study shows that their orbital distribution differs from that of general near-Earth asteroids: the semi-major axis of the short-term hazardous asteroids is more concentrated in 1 au, and the orbital plane is more concentrated in the ecliptic plane. On the basis of the quantity model of near-Earth asteroids, a preliminary estimation model for the quantity of short-term hazardous asteroids is established, and the population of short-term hazardous asteroids with potential threat in the next 100 years is predicted. Some specific research on short-term hazardous asteroids is of great significance to the development of near-Earth asteroid search and monitoring strategies.     

Polarization and brightness opposition effects for the E-type Asteroid 44 Nysa

We present new polarimetric and photometric observations of high-albedo E-type Asteroid 44 Nysa in the BVRI wavebands at phase angles ranging from 0.41° to 7.49° during the 2005 opposition. A bimodal phase-angle dependence of polarization was found for Nysa in the V band. The polarization opposition effect was revealed in the form of a secondary minimum of negative polarization with amplitude ∼0.3% centered at a phase angle ∼0.8°. It is superimposed on the regular negative polarization branch with minimal polarization −0.30% at a phase angle 5.8°. We analyzed all available polarimetric data for E-type Asteroids 44 Nysa, 64 Angelina, and 214 Ashera and confirmed the presence of the polarization opposition effect for high-albedo asteroids at phase angle ∼1° with an amplitude ∼0.35%. The magnitude-phase curves reveal the presence of spike-like opposition effect of brightness for 44 Nysa in the BVRI spectral bands. 44 Nysa is the second high-albedo asteroid after 64 Angelina for which both the polarization opposition effect and the brightness opposition effect are detected. The differences between the parameters of the opposition effects for silicate surfaces (44 Nysa, 64 Angelina, Io) and icy surfaces (Europa, Ganymede, Iapetus, Saturn's rings) are discussed. The specific morphological parameters of opposition effects, in particular the angular width of the polarization opposition effect is comparable to that of the brightness opposition effect, provide almost unequivocal evidence that they are caused by coherent backscattering. One of unexpected results of our investigation is that 44 Nysa becomes bluer with increasing phase angle, while 64 Angelina shows phase reddening.     

Polarization and brightness opposition effects for the E-type Asteroid 64 Angelina

We present new polarimetric and photometric observations of the high-albedo Asteroid 64 Angelina in the UBVRI wavebands at phase angles ranging from 0.43° to 13.02° during oppositions in 1995, 1999, and 2000/2001. The polarization opposition effect has been observed in the form of a sharp peak of negative polarization with amplitude of about −0.4% centered at αmin≈1.8°, which is superimposed on the regular negative polarization branch. The amplitude of the polarization opposition effect appears to be apparition-dependent. Our photometric data confirm the early detected by Harris et al. [1989. Phase relations of high-albedo asteroids: The unusual opposition brightening of 44 Nysa and 64 Angelina. Icarus 81, 365-374] of a very strong and unusually narrow opposition spike, i.e., brightness opposition effect, for Angelina. Thus, 64 Angelina is the first asteroid for which both the polarization opposition effect and the brightness opposition effect have been detected. We observed that the polarization opposition effect as well as the regular negative polarization branch depends on the wavelength of scattered light, but in different manners. In addition, the colors B-V and V-R show little phase-angle dependence, while the color U-B increases with increasing phase angle, thus indicating that the amplitude of the brightness opposition effect is larger in the U band and almost the same in the B, V, and R bands. It appears that all colors indices begin to increase with decreasing phase angle to zero. The composite lightcurve computed with a period of 8.752 h has amplitude of 0.13 magnitude.     

Asteroid rotation rates

The dependence of rotational frequency on diameter, taxonomic type, and family membership is analyzed for 217 main-belt asteroids with statistically useful periods extracted from the file published by Harris and Young ((1983). Icarus54, 59–109). It is shown that for asteroids with diameters ? 120 km, mean rotational frequency increases with increasing diameter. This trend is equally present in all subsets of M-, S-, and C-type asteroids, for both family and nonfamily members alike, and cannot be accounted for by observational selection. For asteroids with diameters ? 120 km, mean rotational frequency increases with decreasing diameter; however, within this group there is a subset of asteroids with exceptionally long rotational periods. This marked change in the distribution at diameter ～ 120 km could separate primordial asteroids from their collision products. However, it is probable that the sample is biased in favor of small asteroids with short rotational periods and that the apparent increase of mean rotational frequency with decreasing diameter for small asteroids is at least partly the product of observational selection. An observational program that could test this hypothesis is described. If asteroids of any one diameter are considered, then, on average, M asteroids rotate faster than S asteroids which in turn rotate faster than C asteroids. This shows that asteroids which have been classified by their surface properties alone have different bulk properties. There is also some evidence that for all asteroidal types, of all diameters, family members rotate faster than nonfamily members.     

短期威胁小行星

为更明确近地小行星撞击地球威胁的监测预警需求, 提出了"短期威胁小行星"的概念, 即未来100yr内可能对地球造成撞击威胁且等效直径大于10m的近地小行星. 以目前已发现的756颗短期威胁小行星为基础, 分析短期威胁小行星的轨道分布特点, 研究显示其与一般近地小行星的轨道分布存在差异, 短期威胁小行星的轨道半长轴更集中于1au, 轨道面更集中于黄道面. 基于近地小行星的数量模型, 初步建立了短期威胁小行星的数量估计模型, 并预估了未来100yr内存在撞击可能的短期威胁小行星的总体数量. 短期威胁小行星的特定研究对制定近地小行星搜巡监测策略有重要意义.     

Short-term effects of gamma ray bursts on Earth

The aim of the present work is to study the potential short-term atmospheric and biospheric influence of Gamma Ray Bursts on the Earth. We focus in the ultraviolet flash at planet’s surface, which occurs as a result of the retransmission of the γ radiation through the atmosphere. This would be the only important short-term effect on life. We mostly consider Archean and Proterozoic eons, and for completeness we also comment on the Phanerozoic. Therefore, in our study we consider atmospheres with oxygen levels ranging from 10^?5 to 1 of the present atmospheric level, representing different moments in the oxygen rise history. Ecological consequences and some strategies to estimate their importance are outlined.     

Asteroid sizes and albedos

The radiometric method of determining diameters of asteroids is reviewed, and a synthesis of radiometric and polarimetric measurements of the diameters and geometric albedos of a total of 187 asteroids is presented. All asteroids with diameters greater than 250 km are identified, and statistical studies can be carried out of the size distributions of different albedo classes down to 80-km diameter for the entire main asteroid belt (2.0–3.5 AU). The distribution of albedos is strongly bimodal, with mean albedos for the C and S groups of 0.035 and 0.15, respectively. The C asteroids outnumber the S at all sizes and all values of semi-major axis, increasing from a little over half the population inside 2.5 AU to more than 95% beyond 3.0 AU; for all objects with D > 70 km, the ratio C/(C+S) is 0.88 ± 0.04. More than half of all asteroids in this size range have a > 3.0 AU. The M asteroids constitute about 5% of the population for a < 3.0 AU, but no members of of this class have been identified in the outer belt. There are no significant differences between the distributions of C, S, and M asteroids for the largest asteroids (D > 200 km) and for those of intermediate size (200–270 km). The total mass in the belt, down to 70-km size, but excluding Ceres, is about 2 × 10²⁴ g. Evidence is presented that several large asteroids rotate in a prograde sense, and that a real difference existsbetween the bulk densities of Ceres and Vesta.     

Asteroid identification at discovery

We present a novel method for the search of linkages among astrometric observations of asteroids, that is, tentative identifications among asteroids observed. Having two different master sets of asteroid observations each containing a number of separate subsets, we define a linkage as a pair of subsets residing in separate master sets that can be tied together with an orbit for given observational errors. To find linkages among a wealth of observations we use an efficient stepwise filtering approach. First, we start with what we call phase-space address comparison. The first step substantially reduces the initially huge amount of pairs by requiring that pairs to be subjected to further analysis have similar geocentric spherical coordinates at common epochs (for example, at three epochs). Second, we search for orbits for each of the selected pairs of subsets. Succeeding in the effort proves that a linkage exists. If there are contradictions among linkages found—for example, a single subset being linked to several mutually exclusive subsets—additional new or archive observations are usually needed to discard erroneous linkages. The new method is built on six-dimensional statistical orbital inversion (Ranging), and is therefore particularly suitable for analyzing objects with the shortest observational arcs, that is, newly discovered asteroids (and comets). Results from extensive and successful tests on simulated survey observations are presented and discussed. Theoretical and empirical scaling results show that the method is applicable to future large-scale surveys that will increase the rate of asteroid discovery by at least two orders of magnitude. The successful linking of faint single-night observation sets obtained with the Very Large Telescope are briefly reviewed.