Spatial Patterns of Migration and Income Change in the Mountain West: The Dominance of Service-Based,Amenity-Rich Counties

One of the most recognizable and important changes occurring in the West is rapid population growth. This article intends to address questions associated with whether patterns of population growth and income migration are associated with “new” and “old” West economies. Rural restructuring in the U.S. has created a group of counties with service-based economies. In the Mountain West, a number of counties with service-based economies are located in areas with high levels of environmental or natural amenities, creating what has been termed the “New West.” Migration to the rural parts of the Mountain West, and the income transfers associated with migration, are increasingly concentrated within these New West counties. Rapid population growth, the changing characteristics of in-migrants, and their spatial concentration in New West counties provide a basis for conflicts over what the rural West is becoming.     

AMENITY MIGRATION IN THE U.S. SIERRA NEVADA*

ABSTRACT. Since 1960 California's Sierra Nevada counties have ranked among the regions with the strongest relative population growth in the state. Reassessment of peripheral areas has been the main force driving population and settlement growth in the central Sierra Nevada of California and Nevada, termed “amenity migration” or “counterurbanization.” This study analyzes the impacts of amenity migrants—“urban refugees”—on socioeconomic conditions in high‐mountain regions. We define these regions as the “High Sierra,” comprising zones at elevations more than 1,800 meters above sea level. People who migrate to the High Sierra tend to be white and well educated, with considerable household earnings. Unlike the population in the foothills, these migrants are not senior citizens. Their demand for periodic or permanent residences has caused housing prices to increase enormously. As a result, a majority of homes are now priced well beyond the reach of local salaries, which may lead to potential conflict between locals and newcomers. The massive settlement expansion in high‐mountain areas requires a new approach to land‐use planning, one that takes functional regions into account. Therefore, it is expedient to reassess existing jurisdictional boundaries.     

Insights from past and present social science literature on the (unequal) development of New Zealand's rural communities

A review of social research on rural New Zealand undertaken as part of the National Science Challenge (NSC 11) “Building Better Homes, Towns and Cities” allows a fresh look at rural development within the context of New Zealand's colonial history. The research suggests that government development programmes and legislation privileged those responsible for producing the bulk of New Zealand's export income. Cultural attitudes, structural inequalities and a failure to understand how the character of, and social relations in, rural areas have changed has impeded particularly Māori economic growth, the participation of women, and non‐farm sectors of rural society, to the detriment of all.     

A new look at population change and regional development in Aotearoa New Zealand

In New Zealand, population change is interlinked with regional development. Places growing in population attract regional investment, while regional investment—or lack thereof—can change migration patterns. However, to determine the appropriate response to population change for a community, it is important to understand that population change involves much more than “just” migration. Specifically, it involves interactions between the three components of population change: natural change (births minus deaths), net migration (international and internal) and population ageing (changing cohort size). For example, migration can be negative, but growth can be positive due to underlying natural increase or growth in cohort size. Responses need to differ, depending on these drivers. The goal of this article is to provide new insights into these interactions using data for 275 cities, towns and rural centres (hereafter “urban places”) in New Zealand for the period 1976 to 2013. The results show that natural change has been consistently positive for most urban places up to the present, although projections indicate that in the future this component will become negative across much of the country. At the same time, net migration shows considerable spatial variation, not only in terms of volume, but also direction (negative or positive), which differs markedly by age. A net gain of people of retirement age can offset a net loss of young adults to deliver overall growth, and vice‐versa, but the two have very different implications for longer term growth. An analysis of the drivers of net migration using GIS and machine learning techniques provides an indication of the importance of economic conditions (land‐use and access to markets), lifestyle, access to essential services (hospitals and education) and their interaction with age in regional change. The results show that population age is the best predictor of migration. Younger people are moving to cities for tertiary education and work and older people near or in retirement are moving to smaller lifestyle towns but also want to be close to amenities such as hospitals and international airports. The research also shows that natural lifestyle characteristics (landscape and climate), in combination with age are just as important as economic conditions for understanding migration. Regional development, such as infrastructure that helps business (ports and services) is important for the working age population but not necessarily the retirement age group. When regional development, age/life‐cycle stage and lifestyle come together, such as in Queenstown and Tauranga, net migration gain is high.     

中国人口收缩的城乡分异特征及形成机理

在县市尺度上对2000—2010年人口收缩区的城乡分异特征进行分析,划分出城增乡减型、城乡双收缩型和城减乡增型等类型,并建立人口收缩城乡分异的理论分析框架,探讨了不同类型的形成机理,主要的发现如下：① 2000—2010年,人口收缩单元占比约为38.6%,城增乡减型单元占据绝对主体,达到34.5%,而“城乡双收缩型”和“城减乡增型”单元占比均较低。② 中部地区人口收缩区城镇人口增长普遍较快,东北地区城乡双收缩的特征较为突出,而东部和西部地区存在较明显的空间分异。③ 城镇化水平和经济发展水平对人口收缩城乡分异特征的影响最为显著,城镇化水平较高而经济发展水平较低的人口收缩区越可能出现城镇人口增长缓慢甚至城乡双收缩。④ 经济发展速度、人口自然增长水平、公共服务等因素对人口收缩城乡分异特征也存在一定的影响。     

U.S. Intercounty Migration in the 1990s: People and Income Move Down the Urban Hierarchy

Internal migration within the United States continues to transform both the magnitude and composition of population at all geographic scales. During 1994 ‐ 1995, the majority of counties gained both people and income, largely as a consequence of net outmigration by higher income migrants from the nation's most populous cities. Regionally, net gainers of both people and income included counties in the West and South as well as other areas renowned for environmental amenities. Spatially, net migration flowed down the urban hierarchy from large central cities to adjacent suburbs which, in turn, exported migrants to exurban areas. Large cities tended to exchange migrants with nearby counties as well as other large cities. Migration patterns such as these are contributing to spatial deconcentration and economic disparity.     

BIODIVERSITY AND LAND‐USE CHANGE IN THE AMERICAN MOUNTAIN WEST

ABSTRACT. Rural private lands in the Mountain West of the United States are undergoing a profound land‐use conversion, from agriculture to low‐density residential or exurban development, though little scientific study documents the ecological consequences of this change. Nongovernmental conservation organizations are working with ranchers to keep rangeland out of development and in ranching, ostensibly because these organizations believe that biodiversity is better protected on ranches than on exurban developments. We compared plant and wildlife communities across the principal rural land uses in the Mountain West: protection, livestock ranching, and exurban development. Native plant and faunal biodiversity was better maintained on ranches and protected areas than on exurban developments. Exurban developments favored species that were nonnative or adapted to human‐altered environments. The continued conversion of ranches to exurban development suggests a long‐term alteration of the region's natural heritage.     

Evolving Spatial Form of Urban‐Rural Interaction in the Pearl River Delta,China

Much of the development literature and the theory of urban transition have been based on an arbitrary division of production space into city and countryside. Despite growing recognition of the need for an integrated approach to urban‐rural relations, controversial issues related to the definition and measurement of the phenomenon remain unresolved. This case study of spatial transformation in China's Pearl River Delta analyzes with greater precision the geographic extent and functional attributes of a zone of urban‐rural interaction located outside and between major metropolitan centers. This zone has been the spatial focus of industrial and commercial development, although most of its population remains officially classified as “agricultural.” The peri‐urban zone was initially left behind by the central cities in terms of its contribution to the regional economy. After a decade of postreform development, this zone has moved ahead of the central cities and become the region's main destination for in‐migrants and foreign investment. The growth of the zone of urban‐rural interaction outside the central cities has absorbed a significant amount of the increased urban population, but it has not brought about a reduction of regional economic inequality because of the persistence of a backward economy in the periphery. Theoretical questions are raised concerning the validity of several fundamental assumptions underlying the conventional model of urban transition.     

Place‐Making Through Beer‐Drinking: A Case Study of Montana's Craft Breweries

Montana's craft brewing industry has grown astronomically in the last few decades and has spawned many breweries with local names and themes. Using Montana's craft breweries as a case study, this paper demonstrates that craft breweries play a significant role in contemporary place‐making. First, brewery and beer names are analyzed to extract several place‐based themes, and it is argued that these perpetuate a particular New West identity for the state. Then, through the lens of tourism and the quest for “authenticity,” surveys of brewery visitors are used to identify the various attractions that drinking craft beer and visiting breweries offer their patrons. Besides the taste of the beer, the local nature of breweries and their community focus prove to be an important draw for brewery visitors and provide the chance to experience the community in a more authentic way, and thus, offer an opportunity to make a meaningful connection with place. This research proves that craft breweries have become an important venue for place‐making, not only in Montana, but in other cities and states with a significant craft‐brewing industry     

Jenniferann.com,regional development,and realising the aspirations of mana whenua in Pōkeno

During the 1990s, the township of Pōkeno was held up as an example of a declining rural Aotearoa/New Zealand. By‐passed from the national state highway, it lost its status as a service hub and drastic measures were introduced to revitalise the town, including renaming the town “ Jenniferann.com .” Pōkeno has since undergone an unlikely transformation, with foreign investment and its location within an extended Auckland commuter zone meaning that the township has grown exponentially. This article describes the transformation of Pōkeno and uncovers what has been missing from discussions about Pōkeno's reinvention, namely, the place of mana whenua.     

Post‐Katrina Population Loss and Uneven Recovery in New Orleans, 2000–2010

New Orleans has suffered from a significant population decline during 2000–2010, mainly due to Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Regression models are used here to explain the spatial variability of population change in New Orleans by variables such as proximity (distance or travel time) to the central business district (CBD), a natural environment variable “elevation”, and two composite socio‐demographic indices derived from variables in the census. The research reveals a U‐shaped population‐change profile with distance or travel time from the CBD, population loss bottomed at 4–5 kilometers (10–15 minutes) from the CBD and recovered towards both the CBD and suburbs. This suggests possible converging forces of suburbanization (that is, a nationwide trend that began long before the hurricane) and the CBD's anchoring role in the post‐Katrina recovery. Greater population loss was also observed in the socioeconomically disadvantaged and lower‐elevated areas, but neighborhoods of Hispanic concentration experienced less population loss.     

2000—2010年中国农村人力资源格局的重构

在城镇化快速发展和农村青壮年劳动力向城镇大规模转移的背景下,如何保证人口流出地的人口质量成为农村可持续发展和乡村振兴的关键。论文运用IPF等方法对2000年和2010年全国2294个县域空间单元的农村人口的教育年限进行了估算,并基于区域人力资源的定量测算,对2000—2010年之间全国农村人力资源的空间格局的相对变化态势进行了分析。研究发现：① 2000—2010年中国农村人力资源总量减少了3.0%,人力资源总量的空间格局变化不大,地域差异主要体现为东西差异和省际差异,空间集聚态势显著但均衡性增加;② 人均人力资源发生了很大变化,10 a间提升了17.4%,县域单元农村人力资源的相对减少主要发生在中部地区和东北地区,而西部地区、长三角、珠三角,以及地级市市辖区的农村人力资源则有所增加,人均人力资源下降的地区超过50%;③ 根据人力资源总量和人均人力资源的变化,县域单元存在同步增加、同步减少、质增量减、质减量增4种类型,2000—2010年间,平原县和丘陵县、粮食主产区、贫困县的人力资源变化需格外重视。平原和丘陵地区同步减少型县域单元的比例均超过40%;粮食主产区农村人力资源总量优势明显,但人均人力资源下降的比例高达64.6%;贫困县同步增加型地区的比例达到43.9%,但人力资源水平仍然与非贫困县有一定差距。这些研究结果表明,遏制平原县、丘陵县和粮食主产区人力资源质量下降,提升贫困县人力资源总体水平是当前农村人口可持续发展的当务之急。     

Collaborative Visioning or Urban Planning as Therapy? The Politics of Public‐Private Policy Making

One aspect of a recent restructuring of urban economies, societies, and spaces has been a change in urban planning practice. Planning is increasingly privatized and decentralized in U.S. cities. Private planning consultants are often hired by public‐private coalitions in order to shape the future of cities, while the planning processes they institute are frequently claimed to be consensus‐based, collaborative, and inclusionary, rather than elite‐centered and expert‐driven. This paper discusses the use of “visioning”—an increasingly popular technique that develops goals for the future of a city through consensus‐based meetings, open to all parties—as developed by New Century Lexington, a public‐private planning initiative in Lexington, Kentucky. It argues that: (1) new public‐private planning procedures, incorporating collaborative techniques, frequently become the institutional sites of political struggle over how future urban geographies are produced; (2) in order to understand the role of visioning in contemporary urban politics and in policy making outcomes, we must recognize the sociospatial context in which it is deployed; and (3) in the case of New Century, the way in which local elites controlled the mechanics of the visioning process made dissent difficult and, therefore, produced a vision of the future largely parallel to their standard economic development models.     

Business Services,Productivity, and Wages: Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Michigan Counties, 1977–1997

This article investigates the growth of business services (SIC73) in Michigan and models the relationship between the industry and local economic conditions in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties. The research makes four conclusions. First, SIC73 measures explain variance in manufacturing productivity. Second, SIC73 indicators explain variation in manufacturing and overall wages. Third, these relationships vary between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties. Despite growth in rural regions, SIC73 indicators more effectively predict wages and productivity in metropolitan counties. Hence, the localized benefits associated with SIC73 industries are more strongly associated with metropolitan economies. Fourth, the interdependencies that have developed between SIC73 industries and the manufacturing sector decrease over time in both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan contexts. The article concludes with suggestions for future research.     

Ways of improving settlement in West Siberia

"[This] paper devoted to the settlement system and the problem of rural population loss in that portion of West Siberia having a significant agricultural base takes issue with some implicit assumptions incorporated within the General Scheme of Settlement within the USSR. More specifically, policies calling for the deliberate, i.e., forced, resettlement of rural population in selected villages in order to provide economies of scale in rural services provision are criticized on two major counts: (1) that such 'enlarged' settlements will still be too small to be allocated the necessary range of functions according to standard city-planning formulae, and (2) that they accelerate rural depopulation by serving as spring-boards for migration to still larger centers."     

Reasons for Returning and Not Returning to Rural U.S. Communities

Population loss persists in nonmetropolitan America, especially in isolated counties with limited natural amenities. Communities in these counties experience high levels of outmigration among high school graduates, but low in-migration is more important in distinguishing declining from growing nonmetropolitan counties, and return migration is a much more prominent component of in-migration to these locationally disadvantaged areas. This research uses a multisited, interview-based methodology to understand the factors that influence decisions of people in their late twenties to late forties to move back to rural communities and the barriers that keep others from making such moves. The life course segment considered here captures a critical “settling down” period when career and family obligations overlap and return migration peaks. Interviews at high school reunions, the only venues where stayers, return migrants, and nonreturn migrants are found together, show that limited rural employment opportunities are barriers for nonreturnees. Others intent on returning find ways to secure or create employment but are primarily influenced to move home by family concerns. Connections to the larger social and physical environment of the community are important as well. Interviews affirm that factors affecting migration decisions work in combination, and ties to both people and place are critical for understanding rural return migration.     

The Emergence of New Hispanic Settlement Patterns in Appalachia*

This article evaluates the emerging Hispanic population in Appalachia, which nearly tripled in size to 465,000 between 1980 and 2000. Using 1980, 1990, and 2000 census data, changes in the geographic distribution of Hispanics and in the economic characteristics of counties with growth in Hispanic population are assessed. Results suggest that high‐growth counties are clustered in peripheral areas in the northern and southern subregions and are characterized by higher per capita income and greater economic viability than those areas with relatively low Hispanic population growth.     

湖南省乡村贫困的影响因素及调控路径研究

贫困是当今世界尖锐的社会问题之一,贫困问题的研究对于改善民生、保障民生和推动贫困地区的社会经济发展具有十分重要的意义。本文以湖南省51个贫困县为例,综合运用熵值法、空间回归分析等方法,从人口结构、居住条件、收入状况与家庭支出4个方面构建贫困测度指标体系,对乡村贫困空间分异特征、影响因素、类型划分、调控路径等进行研究。结果表明：① 湖南省乡村贫困的空间分布呈现出显著的差异性,总体上以轻度贫困和一般贫困为主,比较贫困所占比例较少,比较贫困主要位于武陵山连片特困地区,包括怀化与湘西地区。② 湖南省乡村贫困是区域自然条件和外部社会经济因素相互作用、交互影响的结果,乡村贫困与县均海拔、自然灾害发生面积、农林牧渔业总产值、乡村产业结构及城乡居民收入比呈正相关关系,与农业机械化总动力和人均耕地面积呈负相关关系。③ 基于乡村贫困的测度结果对湖南省51个贫困县进行类型划分,共分为单因素主导型、双因素驱动型、多因素综合型3个大类和P因素主导型、P-E因素驱动型、P-H-E因素综合型等14个小类,并从基础设施建设、文化教育、职业能力培训以及特色产业发展对不同类型贫困县提出相应的脱贫措施。     

湖南武陵山片区农民收入多样性特征及其对贫困的影响

应用探索性和验证性定量分析方法,测度并探讨了2000~2012年间湖南武陵山片区农民收入多样性的时空演变特征及其对贫困的影响。研究发现,湖南武陵山片区农民收入的多样性程度不高且呈现“先降后升”的趋势,不同县市区间农民收入多样性程度差距不断缩小;多样性程度相似县市区在少数年份呈现出空间集聚而在大多数年份为随机分布;片区内娄邵片区、张家界片区农民收入多样性程度相对较高,怀化片区最低,湘西州片区则提升幅度最大,整体上高多样化县市区向娄邵片区和湘西州片区集中;局部空间格局中高-高（HH）、低-高（LH）类型有较大的空间迁移,而高-低（HL）、低-低（LL）类型在空间上分布相对稳定且大多数年份驻留在怀化片区,湘西州片区内县市区跨空间格局类型变迁最为剧烈;农民收入多样性对增加农民收入、降低贫困有着十分显著的影响。     

Assessing the need for evacuation assistance in the 100 year floodplain of South Florida

The main objective of this study is to assess evacuation assistance need in the 100 year floodplain of South Florida (Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties) by examining select population characteristics of the floodplain inhabitants. Dasymetric mapping is used to redistribute block group level census data to homogeneous inhabited zones of 30 m × 30 m. Because the 100 year floodplain does not correspond to block group boundaries, this data redistribution increases the resolution and accuracy of the floodplain population and their social characteristics. Data on poverty, age, vehicle ownership and mobile housing units are obtained for each 30 m × 30 m zone in the floodplain and is aggregated to the block group level. It is then used to assess evacuation assistance need (based on volume of need as well as concentration of need) for the floodplain in each block group. Results reveal variations in evacuation need across the floodplain. “Age” is the main driver of evacuation need along the coast. “Poverty” is a factor inland, in both urban and rural areas. “Lack of vehicle ownership” contributes to assistance need in coastal and inland urban areas, but not so much in rural areas. “Mobile housing” is a factor in rural areas. Miami-Dade County has higher volume and concentration of poor households lacking vehicular ownership. Palm Beach and Broward counties, on the other hand, have a more dominant presence of elderly and of mobile housing. These results have important implications for local and regional evacuation planning in the event of a 100 year flood.